Box Score Recap, 01 May 2012

Box Score Recap

Jesse Biddle took a line drive off the hand. Removed for precautionary reasons. Don’t panic.

77 thoughts on “Box Score Recap, 01 May 2012”

  1. First Biddle can’t get anybody out, now he hurts his hand. Career over! Also, Dom took an 0-fer. Bust! Panic!

    Ceasar Hernandez with 2 hits, JC Ramirez a nice night, Diekman is nasty, and Hewitt goes 5 ABs without striking out. Not much going on tonight as far as impressive performances.

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    1. I disagree, the consistent spots in the bullpen are full, do you want him pitching once a week or dominating AAA, when he comes up he will stick, they have guys like Savery and Sanches for the taxi squad

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      1. Right, but eventually we’ll have to find out if Diekman can perform at the major league level. Schwimer is currently a once-a-week pitcher with the big league club even though he could be dominating AAA. The reason he’s been bumped up is because the Phils have seen him beat up AAA hitters long enough. It may turn out that Schwimer (or Diekman) won’t cut it in the majors, so it would be better to find out now as opposed to next year, when they’ll be expected to play at a high level.

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        1. The reason Schwimer was bumped is because of injuries to other pitchers. I’m sure they would much rather he still be in AAA dominating hitters on a regular basis.

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    2. Nothing worse than watching your closer come in and struggle to find the strike zone. I absolutely love those low pitch saves, nice to see Diekman strike out the side on 14 pitches. He wasn’t messing around

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      1. He did hit a batter, so it’s not like he showed pinpoint control

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      1. HR shouldn’t be the measuring stick this early at that field. The lack of doubles and triples has been a bit worrying, but now even they are starting to come. I would say be optimistic. But don’t start proclaiming him the next superstar or sure thing.

        His stock is definitely rising. If he can hit a few HR this year to go along with a lot of doubles and some triples, that will be great. If he does that while keeping his average up, he’s looking at top 15 in our prospects. If he does both of those with good defense, he’s probably top 10 to start the year next year.

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        1. Average defense, little power or patience. He is having a nice year with a pretty high BABIP. Good showing off a double jump, though high college picks should make that double jump. He might be edging into the top 30 but that is it for now.

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          1. From what he’s shown in the Phillies’ system, I’d say he has pretty good patience. 9% BB rate last year (268 PA), 6.2% this year.

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      2. Had 24 in three years in the Big 12..they are coming. Led the league with 12 his last year there as a Cornhusker.

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        1. Exactly. The transition from metal to wooden bats is often very tough as its a completely different swing. Lots of guys have struggled mightily in SS A ball only to completely turn it on the next year.

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    2. I was actually more excited about him playing 2B last year in Williamsport, and as a 3B prospect, Franco looks like the guy for me.

      That being said, Asche has had a bit of an adjustment period to the wooden bat, and I expect his power and patience numbers to tick up over the course of this season. If he can maintain some defensive versatility as he moves up, his value will only increase

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      1. I agree, I am excited about his offensive potential, but if he can stay in the infield I will be very excited about him as a prospect.

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  6. An interesting phenomenon is happening with Colby Shreve. Although it’s a small sample size, Shreve’s numbers are much better in CLW than in Lakewood. His ERA over parts of 3 seasons in A ball is 3.49 with a K/( of 7.2 and BB/9 of 2.9. In A+, his ERA is 2.55 over small parts of 2 seasons with a K/9 of 8.7 and BB/9 of 1.5. Could be the small sample size or maybe he likes the hot weather?

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    1. Is the plan to eventually stretch him out into a starter? He’s now several years removed from TJ surgery

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  8. Diekman’s splits are more favorable against righties than lefties which is pretty surprising. If he can demonstrate no platoon splits for a little longer I think his call-up will be very soon. His K/9 and SO/BB ratios are tremdendous.

    Also looking foward to seeing Bonilla get his first start. His peripherals looked great as well.

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    1. Diekman’s slider and change-up are nasty against righties. The slider disappears under righty bats at the last minute.

      The interesting thing about Diekman is that, at least when I’ve seen him, he does not show the increased velocity that was previously reported. We were told he now throws 94-97 MPH. I have seen him sit at 89-92 with the FB and touching 94. But what I did not know is that he has several good secondary pitches, including a slider at around 78-80 MPH, a change-up at around 84-86 MPH and slow curve at around 70 MPH. He’s not a one-trick pony – he’s got a full arsenal of pitches and he appears to hide the ball well. I will watch last night’s inning to see if he increased the velocity on the FB.

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      1. Diekman sure seams like a good fit to be called up to replace Kendrick. Thoughts?

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        1. Why would he replace Kendrick? Unless he’s hurt, I don’t see Kyle going anywhere this year.

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      2. If he isn’t tougher on lefties than righties, meaning he can get both out, and he has 3-4 decent pitches, why isn’t he starting?

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        1. Good question. I was thinking that myself. I think it’s because he previously failed as a starter. The problem with that theory is that, since he became a reliever, he changed his arm slot, so I’m not sure the prior track record would be a good indicator of future success.

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          1. Yeah I agree. Some other guy changed his arm slot a while back and that worked out pretty well, forget his name…..

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      3. Pitching in the colder April/May weather is most likely a factor in Dieks diminished velocity. Let’s see how that changes moving into the summer months.

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      4. He’s been in the bullpen long enough that I’m surprised he’s still throwing 4 pitches. I wonder if that keeps the option open to try starting again? I thought the Phils would have him concentrate on just 2 or 3 like Ryan Madson did when he went into the ‘pen.

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  9. There’s no doubt that Diekman and Bonilla are both doing great but I’m blown away with what’s going on with JC Ramirez. He’s now thrown 10 shutout innings in a row. He must have changed something. He’s not giving up hits or walks right now. Has anyone seen him recently to tell us what he’s changed? Has he discovered some unhittable off speed pitch? Using a two seem fastball and he’s junked the off speed? This is a guy with a big arm who we all knew was a propsect if he figured it out. Very exciting…
    As for Diekman, the Phils needed a long man now, Sanches was definitely the right choice. Schwimer, Savery, and Sanches all on the big club already. Its nice to have pen depth from AAA… Are we sure that Bonilla will go into the rotation at some point? Maybe they think his future is as a closer, he sure has pitched well as their closer so far.
    Also, Trevor May has pitched so well, the Phils won’t be able to trade him. You just don’t trade guys that look as good as he looks right now. He looks like our 6th starter next year at the outset (assuming KK takes the 5th spot to start the year) with a chance to be in the rotation for 10 years.
    There are lots of position guys to be excited about: Eldemire, Pointer, Altherr, Franco, Asche, Rupp, Gillies, James. Who is our number 1 surprise guy at this early juncture? Pointer??

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    1. I saw JC pitching opening weekend in Reading and he was absolutely atrocious. Could not throw a strike to save his life practically. He has really settled down since then. This is pure speculation but I would imagine the difference is that he is consistently throwing strikes as he always had above average stuff.

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    2. Murray…”There are lots of position guys to be excited about: Eldemire, Pointer, Altherr, Franco, Asche, Rupp, Gillies, James. Who is our number 1 surprise guy at this early juncture? Pointer?”……do me a favor, go onto BA’s site and contact and ‘Ask Jim Callis’ if he feels the same excitement you do for the aforementioned players?

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    3. Murray, with all due respect to you, this comment made me laugh “Also, Trevor May has pitched so well, the Phils won’t be able to trade him.” What about Ruben Amaro’s track record makes you think he won’t trade his top prospects? That is just about all Amaro has done over the last few years with every top prospect except Brown.

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      1. Who has performed as well as May in AA or above who was traded? Drabek’s numbers weren’t as good and the other guys were all younger or not as good. The only guy was Michael Taylor and for some reason no one, outside of all of us, saw him as a major prospect. May doing this well in AA will propel him to spring traning with a chance to win a spot as a cheap starter.

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    4. 1) It’s 10 innings. Pitchers often get lucky over ten inning stretches. It’s not likely he changed anything at all. Possible? Sure. But much more probable he’s just gotten lucky.

      2) Why waste a pitcher (Bonilla) with starter potential in the bullpen? Plus, even if they see him as a pen piece in the future, the extra innings from being a starter will help his development. He’s young, has talent, and we don’t have a current need for pitching. No need to rush him through the minors by making him a reliever right away.

      3) Pointer, Franco, and Asche (in that order) are probably the three to be most excited about based on their mix of youth, potential, and what they’ve shown so far in conjunction with positional need at the big league level. Interesting that you left Valle off the list.

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      1. 10 innings over 6 – 8 games lucky? I don’t think so. I think he’s in a groove and I would be even more excited if I thought he changed something or found something. Valle hasn’t shown me much this year. I’m not sold on him….. Its tough as a catcher. As for Bonilla, I wish someone from the Phils would give us a snippet on their plans for him. Maybe they don’t see his body type as a starter.

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        1. Do you follow relievers at all…? Many relievers have such stretches, and even longer. Hell, Kendrick is king of lucky stretches. I’ll stick by luck until either A) his sample size is sufficient, and/or B) his peripherals improve.

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  10. Fontenot now batting over .400 in AAA. Career .263 hitter in Major Leagues. Galvis hitting .190 in major leagues. I would like to see Fontenot take Galvis spot on the major league team and in the lineup.

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    1. Fontenot looked good again last night, nice pick up by Rube (he was at the game last night). Both Diekman and Valdes also were very sharp to close it out.

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    2. I agree with this. I think Galvis has been a little unlucky hitting the ball at guys but he just doesn’t look ready for major league pitching yet. On the plus side he really is great defensively.

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    3. The real question is whether Fontenot is better than Pete Orr. I would tend to say “yes”.

      Regarding Galvis, we all expected him to struggle some at the plate. From what I have seen, his contact rate is decent but he hits too many balls in the air.

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      1. Bak – I’m not sure I follow your logic, isn’t hitting the ball in the air better then on the ground? Or do you mean he’s not hitting the ball “hard” enough?

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        1. ‘hitting the ball in the air’ ….. when you are a ‘power’ hitter it is better.

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          1. By that same token, isn’t hitting the ball on the ground only better if you’re fast?

            Fly balls turn into outs at a slightly higher clip than ground balls (~7%, if I recall correctly). However, fly balls are much better for scoring, obviously. Fly balls can’t be converted into a GIDP, and are much more likely to score a RISP. In addition, a groundball has 0% chance of being a HR.

            So, generally speaking, FB>GB.

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      2. I don’t think there is any question that Fontenot is better than Pete Orr or Galvis, right now. The question is, whether Blanco is better than Orr.
        If Fontenot is brought up to replace Gavis, and not Orr, Blanco should be brought up too, as the emergency Shortstop.

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    2. That’s good. It didn’t sound serious, but I figured he’d skip a start just as extra precaution.

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    3. Sounds similar to what happened to Hamels when he caught the 117 mph liner from AGon last season

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  12. A few notes.

    * As I mentioned last week. Sample sizes do not gain statistical significance until they reach a certain threshold, and even after they cross those thresholds, its better to wait longer to see what happens. All statistics are susceptible to noise, and the noise generally is less prominent the larger the sample is. Don’t get worked up over 20 innings pitched or 75 AB or something like that. Just be patient, even though it is difficult.

    * Don’t worry about what BA or BP or ESPN thinks of our prospects. These are the same outlets that didn’t give Singleton more than a mention after he was drafted, and they are the same outlets that barely mentioned Pointer when he was drafted, and didn’t really have anything to say about him after his solid season in the GCL last year. They are all about the big names, the guys who get massive bonuses, and the guys who have been on the scouting scene for years. Let them focus on that, don’t get worked up.

    * From a development perspective, there are certain things that are important. Diekman is throwing consistent strikes for the first time in his career, and he’s pitching regularly. It probably will not benefit him to get called up to the Phillies and sit in the bullpen for 4-5 days without pitching. Dubee obviously loves him. He’s going to get his chance. I’d bet the Phillies don’t want to call him up unless they have a defined, prominent role for him, and I don’t think that exists now. Brian Sanches has no more development left, hes a finished product, and if he pitches once a week, its not going to have any bearing on his long term future.

    Additionally, the urge to promote guys to the next level in-season is always there, but its not always necessary. For pitchers, there is an adjustment to make the 2nd and 3rd times you face a team, because the hitters on the other team are more familiar with you. Likewise for hitters, getting to face the same pitchers again is an adjustment and valuable learning tool. For some guys who are repeating a level or who are really old for their league, yes, a promotion sometimes is necessary so they can face more challenging opponents, but in general, its not worth worrying about right now.

    The calendar just hit May. We have 4 more months left. I know everyone likes the daily recaps and its fun to look at box scores. But you have to look at the bigger picture and put all of these daily lines in context.

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    2. PP,

      I’m with you on sample size, to the point where I get ridiculed by some for going on about it.

      But there are questions sometimes about which “sample” should be look at. For several players on the team this relevant – especially Polanco (the “sample” of 2011, 2012, and the second half of 2010 contains almost 1000 PA and is not very pretty; also his age/trend line is concerning) and Mayberry (the “sample” of … well, his whole career, aside from the small sample of last year in the majors … is large and suggests that his “real” ability as a hitter is closer to .245/.296/.419 – his ZiPS projection – than to last season’s numbers). In both cases, some improvement is likely, but it is not as if the only cause for concern is this season’s admittedly small samples.

      And of course Galvis’ performance as a hitter is not exactly a surprise either.

      Other players – Pence, Rollins and Victorino – should rebound of course. Though even for them, sample size cuts both ways. Yes, they should do better than they have so far this season. But Pence had a career year last season, and Victorino was also above his career norms. In both cases, regression to career norms is a reasonable prospect.

      Finally, sample size cuts the other way on Nix, Ruiz and Wigginton, all of whom are hitting above career norms.

      Throw all that into the hopper .. and the Phillies’ team, as currently constituted, sample size aside, is, as a whole, performing offensively at … roughly the rate one could reasonably expect. Maybe a little lower. Not IMO dramatically so. 25th in runs scored. That seems roughly what we could expect, given the personnel and injuries.

      Another way to look at this is that the team as a whole DOES have enough PA to meet standards of statistical significance for most metrics. Probably not for batting average, but ironically that is their strongest statistic so far (15h in baseball, as opposed to runs, OBP, SLG%, all 25th).

      Get Utley and Howard back, in something close to their level of play in recent years, and that changes. Bring Brown up (probably would be premature now, but down the road it is a possibility) would help also. Let’s hope that all that happens.

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      1. Ruiz is actually kind of an enigma… What I mean by that is it may not be safe to use Ruiz’s career norms as expectations for him where most players have multiple seasons around their career averages, with a few below and few above scattered throughout, Ruiz started off well below his (now) career averages, and then the past few seasons has been hitting over .300. He’s one of the few players where, if someone said he changed his approach, the speculation might actually be correct.

        While he still may be playing better than we should expect him to, I don’t think it’s safe to use career averages for him. I’d suggest taking his averages from the past three seasons, and maybe knocking off a few points in each triple slash category for age (even that I’m not sold on, though). He really is statistically fascinating…

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        1. Fair enough.

          I also realize (sheepish grin) that this time PP was referring to the minor league player sample sizes. While he has made similar points about the big league club, this time, in context, he was talking about the minors. My bad for going off topic.

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  13. Austin Wright is looking solid again today: 6 IP, 4 Ks, 2 BBs, 2 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 6 ground outs, 2 fly outs.

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  14. Myers going yard for the Threshers……..Hewett 2 Ks and his 4th error already……..please no more 1st or 2nd round “all-World athletes”…….this is baseball not football or hoops.

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    1. Yes, please. Let’s take bad athletes in the 1st and 2nd round. That would be more productive.

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        1. Many passed on Kemp he was taken in the 6th round but my does he have a beautiful OPS graph from age 18-22.

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      3. yes agree…skinny long-legged, broken-armed HS pitchers.. say like Bert Hamels.

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    2. The Phils draft plan has been widely praised for a team that does not draft in the top part of the draft. The only tangible “athletes” you can point to on the roster are Rollins and Brown (I still think he will be a beast). But other toolsy players such as Singleton, Gose, Taylor, and Santana have helped us to get major league talent. These prospects may flame out in a big way but otherwise you are spending a first round pick on a guy whose upside is a major league bench player.

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      1. 1 Component of a draft is what players land you in return but if we’re being honest the Gillick/RAJ regime has yet to draft an impact MLB player whether that be playing for us or playing for someone else.

        Now the jury is still out on a few guys we’ll have to wait and see but I’m starting to wonder if the current staff has an eye for MLB talent.

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        1. Travis D is looking pretty promising at the moment. Worley, Hamels, and Bourn also come to mind off the top of my head.

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          1. Sorry Dan….correct me if I am wrong, but Hamels and Bourn were Ed Wade/RAJ selectees….pre-Pat Gillick/RAJ.

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            1. Indeed they were. But Worley has been pretty impactful, and in another year or two I bet a few other guys will join him on that list.

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            2. Wade was fired (and Gillick hired) in 05, so yes they were drafted in the time when Wade was still GM. However, they’re recent, and very much impact players. The important thing to remember is that the GM isn’t the one generally in charge of drafting. He gets the final say, of course, but there are committees for drafting and a lot of the people that drafted those three are still drafting for us now.

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  15. Caught the Ironpigs game today. Missed some spots in the first couple innings because I sought cover from early rain showers.

    -Dom Brown leaving set off an alarm since I noticed his absence almost immediately after reading Thome was heading to the DL. Alas, not to be. Brown made one fielding play, catching a routine fly in the rain.

    -Mike Fontenot is an average fielder, made a nice diving play. Not great at turning the double play though, missed two opportunities. I think he’d be an upgrade offensively over Galvis. But he’d give a bit back on defense.

    Velocities:
    Bush: 86-88
    Rosenberg: 89-91
    Aumont: 94
    Diekman: ??

    The radar gun was operating sparingly in the late innings, often it would record Gosewisch’s throws back to the pitcher instead.

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