As suggested, here is a place for all of your off-topic rants and other miscellaneous discussions. Spring training is almost here, and then we’ll have more things to discuss. I’m also planning a few things for this week, so stay tuned for that.
128 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of 13 February 2012”
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Phuture Phillies 
Oakland coming out of nowhere to land Cespedes. Here’s to some final hope on Solar
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More encouraging is that it was only 36million. I was expecting at least 50mil+. Solar would be really nice, it will probably be in the 18-20million range
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We should try to pry Michael Taylor back away from them, they obviously have no need for him now.
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Another roster move will be needed by the As to make room. Who knows, maybe MT will be cut loose.
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He’ll never fall to us through waivers, we’d need to make a trade.
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he couldnt make this team.
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Amen brother, we wouldn’t trade Mayberry for him straight up and we don’t need a guy who can’t make the A’s roster just because he was a top 10 phils prospect 4 years ago.
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I wouldn’t trade him for Mayberry either, but I’d sure like to have him around. We all forget just how old and close to the edge of the cliff Mayberry got before he pulled himself back. When Mayberry was Taylor’s age, he had yet another forgettable AAA season. There’s still a little time left for our old friend to take his game to the next level.
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Yes, the A’s who have no money to spend and seem to be good talent evaluators wanted to spend $36M on an outfielder rather than play Taylor – why? Because he’s not very good……get over him already.
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How good at talent evaluation have they really been? Who is the last position player that really panned out from that system(this was half sarcastic and half real question, no one comes right to mind)? Consistently getting high draft picks, and trading above average pitchers who benefit from the ball park lend to a top 10 minor league system, but as we have seen argued here top potential has far less value than good performance now. Still waiting for the A’s world series using Moneyball.
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The A’s Moneyball era is over. See when you are very successful on a shoestring budget and then announce to the world what your strategy is… everyone else adopts facets of it. So one of the major components of the A’s strategy was finding OBP on the cheap, which no longer works since all teams now understand how valuable that is and those players are no longer undervalued.
As for developing players, Beane’s theory on drafting college players has since been shown to not be as effective as he initially thought. However, even that is irrelevant as with the changes coming in the draft we will likely see a lot more players elect college over the minor leagues.
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I think the Athletics have skimped on the basic tenets of player development. I get the feeling that a team who trades nearly every arbitration eligible player isn’t spending a lot on advanced scouting either. Hitters in that organization who by all rights should have at least been marginal players are faltering.
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I find myself begrudgingly agreeing with you here. I was a huge Taylor fan, who wouldn’t be after that AA season a few years back. But the wheels have come off the train and its time to move on. He’d only be taking up a spot of a younger more deserving player at this point.
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Like who? Dom Brown is the only young position player who is for all intents and purposes MLB ready or close to it. A .272/.360/.456 line is hardly the wheels falling off. Mayberry didn’t even post numbers like that in AAA. Granted Mayberry is the greatly superior defender but the truth is we don’t know why the A’s haven’t really given MT a chance. Let’s not bash the guy when he hasn’t been given an opportunity.
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MT had more than an opportunity both here and in Oakland. You’re grasping at straws to say that someone who once hit well over .300 and now still hits at a .270 clip is worthy of a roster spot at someone else’s expense. He isn’t 21 anymore and he isn’t hitting .300 anymore. He’s shown that.
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I’m not saying MT is a big time prospect. Heck I’m not even saying he’d be an average MLB OF. Just pointing out that he hasn’t exactly failed to the extent people are saying. His “opportunity” here was a short stint in AAA before being traded and who really knows the circumstances in Oakland, maybe it was all defense oriented. But 35 MLB AB’s with them is again, not much of an opportunity. He may wind up as nothing but AAA filler, but as we’ve seen with Mayberry, sometimes guys turn the corner later than most. To totally discount and trash a guy who’s had some success is disingenuous at best. And to use that he only hit .270 and is therefore unworthy of a roster spot is puzzling considering Mayberry is a career .260 hitter with similar power numbers in the minors.
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I agree with a lot of what you said, however I’d challenge you to point out where I “trashed” him. He hit .272/ .348/ .392 in 2010 in the hitter-friendly PCL, and followed that up with a .272/ .360/ .456 in 2011. He’s now 26 years old, is this really where we want to go with our AAA roster spots?
I guess my point is let’s use that roster spot in an effort to develop our own prospects as opposed to utilizing resources in an effort to salvage someone else’s retread.
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My question as we get closer to Spring Training is how the bullpen will look. There are a lot more names than spots. Does DeFratus start in the majors or does LHV only needs its starters to go 5 innings before handing the ball to Savery, Schwimmer, DeFratus, and Aumont.
And is that the best minor league bullpen.
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I hope DeFratus or Aumont make them team, but I think that is a long-shot.
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Thats a good question. At least to start the season I would like to see Qualls handle the 7th and see Bastardo/Stutes split the 8th based on match-up (in order to manage their innings)
I’d like to see Contreras out and DeFratus in at some point half way through the season.
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I like your thinking, throwing the younger guys into the fire similar to what happened to Stutes and Bastardo last year. But do you really think that the Phils are going to sit Contreras down @ $5 million/ season just to get a younger guy some high leverage innings? That’s not going to happen, save another injury.
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At the beginning of the season I doubt we’ll see any of the prospects in the majors. As the year goes on, somebody will get hurt or be really bad and somebody will get a call up.
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The Phillies are starting with Paplebon, Stutes, Bastardo, Willis, Kendrick/Blanton, Qualls, Contreras, and Herndon with significant ML experience on the roster.
I doubt Contreras will be ready to start the season which still leaves them with 7 experienced relievers. I don’t think its likely but it is possible that Schwimer/Defratus, etc. can beat out someone like Herndon or Qualls to steal that last spot in the pen.
I do expect that both of those guys will see ML time during the season.
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Jim Salisbury in one of his articles earlier this month mentioned that Contreras is ahead of schedule in his recovery according to the Phillies medical people and, subsequently letting Lidge explore other options outside the Phillies.
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With Thome on the roster the Phillies may carry an extra position player and only 6 in the pen, at least initially.
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Whether Contreras is able to pitch at all or effectively is still to be determined. IMO, if he didn’t have one season left on his 2 yr contract there’d be no doubt he’d not be on the roster at all with so many promising relievers knocking on the MLB door.
I see Stutes as questionable though he did help some in ’11. DeFratus would be–IMO–a very significant addition to the pen…hopefully replacing Contreras or ?
Aumont clearly needs most if not all of the ’12 season to refine his command at LV. Should he do just that he’d be a great candidate to fill in the 8th inning set up role until Papelbon either falters or contract runs out—a kind of Madson-like development process. Watching Aumont’s 4th pitch on top of his FB, curve and change makes him a possible wonder on the relief staff.
And should Willis not work out in addition to Bastardo’s fade in the final month of ’11, we need to retain Savery as a lefty guy out of the pen. He looks like he can do the job. Finally a reward for this high draft choice.
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Interesting how Savery goes from not even making the “Top 30” to saving the Phillies bullpen this year.
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Replacing the lefty specialist would hardly qualify as saving the bullpen.
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Check Art D’s post again….If Savery picks up a faltering Bastardo, that’s saving the bullpen in my book.
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Yeah, but it’s not as if there won’t be other lefty options, even if Batardo fails. There is very little, if anything, separating Horst from Savery. They have the same stuff and throw the same speed (fringy 90 MPH lefties). And if Diekman gets his game together he has a signficantly higher ceiling than Savery. Folks need to start accepting the fact that Savery is, at best, a funbile lefty out of the pen. I wish it weren’t true, but it is.
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uh, that would be fungible. There is no word “funbile” and clearly, bile is not fun.
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If I’m the Phillies, I let Aumont spend a few more months closing at AAA (April, May, maybe June) and then I bring him up to pitch middle relief – getting him as many two inning stints as possible. I realize he has failed before as a starter, but his repertoire and raw stuff is lethal. If he could hold his velocity late into games his upside would be virtually unlimited. He has a ridiculous amount of talent.
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Further with regard to the pen in ’12: Having a “lights out” pen should be more essential than we may have thought.
IMO, having such a pen could redound to a great benefit to the starters, especially for the Big Three. Two are in their mid-thirties; having them not going for 8-9 innings in so many games would take the age related pressure on their arms down and extend their effectiveness into their final contract years. With a good lead through the 7th inning there is little reason to have them (including Hamels and others) pitch into the 8th and 9th. Saving wear and tear on their arms would be a superior plan IF the pen is as effective as could be with the newer guys (DeFratus/Aumont, etc.) bringing it.
Save those starters arms for the future wherever possible. Charie’s tendency is to let them pitch as far as possible in a game; with a “great” pen we can save more of them for the future. hope Charlie adopts this policy for now and the next several years…certainly until people like May and Biddle arrive and are securely in the rotation.
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Ideally the Phils pen would have Papelbon closing, Contreras handling the 8th, with Qualls and Willis the 7th inning guys. After that, you’d have Bastardo, Stutes, and Herndon (long man). Kendrick would be the 5th starter since Blanton would ideally get traded during spring training, giving us some financial flexibility at the deadline to pick up a bat.
It never seems to work out to go with rookies in key bullpen roles and expect them to not struggle at the end of the year – Stutes, Bastardo, Kimbrel, and Venters. Would be great to see Bastardo, Stutes, and as injuries occur during the season, DeFratus and Savery/Diekman come up and pitch regularly in non critical situations, and 6th / 7th inning roles and get accustomed to the bigs and have some success. Note that due to their experience last year I believe Bastardo and Stutes are more ready to pitch in higher leverage roles, but ideally they wouldn’t.
I believe Aumont would be best served with a full year as a AAA closer, and it wouldn’t hurt Diekman and Savery to be at AAA also. If all goes according to plan, the 2013 bullpen would be composed like this:
1 Papelbon – closer
2 Bastardo – coming off another solid season in 2012, he would be ready to serve as the primary 8th inning guy, ala Madson
3 Stutes – another good year in 2012 has established Stutes as a better than Durbin 7th inning guy vs RH’s mostly
4 Diekman – in several 2012 stints he proved to have LOOGY potential and he gets this role in 2013
5 DeFratus – also saw several 2012 stints with the team, and is ready to be a full time big leaguer with setup man potential
6 Aumont – future closer potential but will spend 2013 at the start being a middle inning guy and likely grow into a more vital role as the season progresses
7 Herndon / Hyatt / Savery / Other
This bullpen would be very cheap but upside potential to be a top mlb pen.
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I doubt Cholly will change anything. I have heard him say they have to earn their pay or something to that effect.
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Hurray for Cholly, he knows his players, although it isnt always him who makes the decisions as we all know.
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So what’s the consensus on Pettibone? Will Pettibone be better long term than Worley?
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If you had to ask the experts, based on what I have read, I would guess they would say that Pettibone has a somewhat higher upside than Worley but due to his lack of proximity to the big leagues, there is a great risk that he will not reach that upside or even be as good as Worley is right now. Sitting here today, who is a more valuable player in a trade? Worley, by quite a bit because he is young, cheap, early in his career and has a demonstrated level of ability at the major league level.
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I usually agree with you but I have to differ at your last comment. I would argue that Pettibone probably has more value in a trade than Worley at this point. Everyone expects Worley’s results to drop this year from last while Pettibone’s status continues to increase. Pettibone could easily be in a major league rotation next year, although it would obviously depend on the team. Who will be better in 2 years? in 3 years? I think most would argue Pettibone.
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You make fair points – reasonable minds can disagree about these things. I guess it really depends upon just how highly thought of Pettibone is within baseball circles as compared with Worley’s demonstrated ability. Perhaps you are right.
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A good article by fangraphs on the success rate of evaluating pitchers vs. position players http://network.yardbarker.com/mlb/article_external/is_it_just_easier_to_scout_pitching/9860026?linksrc=foxrg_mlb
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Anyone else see Gelb’s article on the Phils next TV deal? Could be something like $5 billion for 20 years and they wouldn’t even need to wait until the current one runs out in 2015 to sign it. This team is going to go on some crazy spending sprees in the near future, starting with one Cole Hamels.
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As I understand it, the issue isn’t the ability to pay Hamels (or any other player, for that matter). The issue is that they want to stay under the luxury tax threshold.
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Thats correct. You can see the big market teams that were over are now worrisome. Obviously for teams like the Angels who were no where near the threshold the extra TV revenue allowed them to rush right up to it.
Behold we now have a salary cap in baseball….
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A soft cap at best. Sure teams wont go way over but they’ll still cross it when it benefits them (like signing Hamels and taking a ding tax-wise.)
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Behold we now have a salary cap in baseball….Exactly!!
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Well, Monty basically said on Sunday that the Luxury Tax wont be an issue at all in the coming years…which kinda sounds like with a new tv deal, we wont care about paying the tax.
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IIRC, the issue is that the threshold goes up in 2013, and each year that a team is in luxury tax territory, its tax rate increases. So if the Phils can stay out of luxury tax territory for 2012, they will likey be able to stay out of it in future years as well, when the threshold goes up. But that’s why he said it won’t be in issue in the future.
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No, the luxury tax threshold stays the same in 2013 and goes up, but not by a lot, in 2014.
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It is true that the overall threshold as described in the CBA remains the same, but the tax paid by individual teams will fluctuate with their actions. I believe if a team stays under for the current season, the next time they go over they pay a 27% tax, if they exceed the following season they pay a 40% tax. and the season after that a 50% rate. If at some time after that they stay under they return to the 40% rate. I believe that only by staying under the threshold in the coming season is the only way they can get the 27% tax rate in the following season.
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Maybe he’s planning on a fire sale like the marlins and thus it won’t be an issue as we’ll be under 50M a year, lol.
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You know, the most interesting thing about the article (and it was very interesting) is that my general take is that the TV revenue is going to greatly increase for all teams, even teams that are not very good and do not get a lot of fan support. If that really is the case (a lot more money coming and distributed among many teams), then I view the extra money as only creating momentary advantages for certain teams. If all the teams have a lot more revenue, they will all spend a lot more on players, which somewhat reduces (but probably does not eliminate) the gigantic strategic advantage shared by a few teams. It does, however, counsel in favor of giving Cole Hamels a ton of money because, as I see it, the market is going to go through the roof as new TV deals are reached.
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That’s true. It’s not just tv revenue, but MLB Advanced Media. Things like selling the Extra Innings package, or MLB.TV. Unlike the broadcast deals of the past, these are split equally among all 30 teams. So the advantages the big markets had are not as prevalent anymore.
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Welfare for professional sports franchises….
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The Braves for example are tied to a terrible TV contract for 25 more years WITHOUT an opt-out clause. They are the huge losers here.
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That’s great!!!!
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Some think that Turner network made the Braves. The truth is the Braves made the network and got little cash back Nik you are sooo right
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And here all this time I thought the ratings for TBS were high because of Jane Fonda’s appearance in the box seats.
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There’s no doubt that they’re trying to extend Cole with a 5 yr/$100M type deal now which he’s rejecting but I’m still assuming they’ll get something done and it will be very expensive (6 yr/$135M). This might force them to let Victorino go after the season, hoping that Dom can take LF while moving Mayberry to CF for a year if neither James nor Gillies is ready. Blanton and Polanco are also both FAs after the year so money will be cleared to pay Cole but they’ll have to find someone to play 3B and someone to be a cheap 5th starter. As we’ve seen this year, there are always 5th starter types available for not too much money but the 3B question will be tougher. If Bourn is not resigned by the Braves during the year, and I expect he will, that could be something the Phils have to look at. Just another reason that Victorino won’t be resigned, at least not now.
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Funny you mention this, but, having thought about this a bit today, I came to the same conclusion – Victorino will likely be the one player who is sacrificed so that the team can sign Hamels. In my view, the signing of Hamels means that either Hunter Pence or Share Victorino can get a big contract, but the luxury tax cap will not permit them to sign both. As between those two players, it seems that Pence is likely to get the big money (whether you think that is a good idea or not is a different discussion but I think they want Pence’s power more than they want Victorino’s verstility), Mayberry can man center (at least until one of the other guys is ready) and Brown can slide into left. But the Phillies will probably let things play themselves out for at least part of this year before they go and make these kinds of decisions.
As for 5th starters next year (2013), they won’t have to go and sign anyone new. Hyatt or Kendrick could do it and there’s more than a passing chance that one of the young guns (Rodriguez, May, or Pettibone), will be ready by then. After years of waiting, the Baby Aces are not that far away anymore.
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It would be very exciting if all/most of the young guys have good years and next year there’s a fight for the 5th spot. If May gets his control under control, he’ll be major league ready. I don’t see Kendrick being able to hold down a starting spot for this team anymore but I like him in that swing role. Who knows, Hyatt could have a great start and get promoted mid year to pitch in the pen and outpitch Kendrick for that spot in 2013 (for lots less money). Its not impossible (although it does take a bit of rose colored glasses).
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^ That was me.
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By the by, I went back and looked at the 2008 draft – good God, that really has to be the best, or among the best, drafts in Phillies’ history, which is really something when you consider the first two picks (Hewitt and Collier) are likely complete busts. In that draft, IN CONSECUTIVE ROUNDS, the Phillies took Gose, Knapp, Worley, Pettibone and May. Later on they took Julio Rodriguez, Cody Overbeck, Mike Stutes, Mike Schwimer and, then, for the cherry on the cake, Jarred Cosart (they also took Rosenberg, Cloyd and Susdorf). Man, alk about an A+ draft.
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Catch I was just rereading my 2011 Baseball America Prospects guide and thinking the same exact thing. Even with ZERO return on either Hewitt or Collier, the Phils had an amazing draft class. All to the tune of about $6.5 million in bonus monies. What a talent haul that year was.
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What’s the expecrted haul of an “A” draft year? 3 major leaguers? 2 major leaguers? At least 2 major leaguers with one of them being a front line player (starting pitcher, closer or starting position player)? 3 with 2 front line players? Either way you look at it, the typical haul of a good draft just isn’t that much. Looking at your list, its not hard to picture 3 starting pitchers (May, Worley, Pettibone), 1 starting position player (Gose), and 4 relievers (J Rod, Stutes, Schwim, and Cosart) including 1 closer (Cosart). That would be amazing if 3 is a good haul and we got 8 including 5 front line players. Add to that the fact that they traded Knapp at his highest value to get Lee and none of that ncludes the 2 top picks. Awesome! Now look at 2009 to see how things change from year to year. haha
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Can someone with ESPN Insider go look to see where they rank the Phillies on “Future Power Rankings?”
Thanks!
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not up yet, they only did bottom third
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I am going to guess they are in the Top Ten, I am going to guess 6 or so. The minor league rating will be down but they should be near the top of Majors talent, Financial, and management.
At the end of the day while you can argue that the roster may not be the best monetary value (Howard, Papelbon) but that doesn’t stop them from being really good players.
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Remember that none of us really care how much money they spend unless it prevents them from spending elsewhere. You need star players to win, not solid players and the stars cost money because everyone understands the need for them. The Phils will stay very good as long as their revenue is high and their top paid guys (Howard, Utley, Rollins, 3 starters) peform at least pretty well.
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Appears Theo Epstein has his sights on Jorge Soler for the Cubbie future OF and will probably outbid teams like the Yanks/Marlin/Phillies and who ever else. Not sure if Ruben would have ever wanted to try to match the reported offer of $27M/4yrs that some say the Cubs put out there.
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Whaaa? If Cole is expecting $135 million dollars I say just trade him now (ideally we should have locked him up after the 2010 season, but Ruben is dumb like that). I don’t want to be on the hook for that much money, even for a stud like Cole. Ship him out and get some nice prospects in return and hope a Big 2 is enough to win you another title.
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Why? If you have the payroll flexibility to sign an elite LHP for the peak years of his career, why would you deal him for players that may never make the majors?
I don’t follow your logic here.
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I guarantee you he’d have at least 10 teams in line to pay him that. He’s still young, he’s still improving (he could win the Cy Young this year), he’s a gamer who already has postseason MVP awards, and he’s left handed. You don’t trade that, you sign him and keep him and hope he leads you to a few more championships. You’re assuming RAJ didn’t try to sign Cole previously. I’ll bet you’re wrong but there was also no reason to pay full value until know. As long as Cole is willing to be patient and has confidence in his ability to improve more and stay healthy, you’re not going to sign him for less than market rate which is very high.
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oops, “until now”, not until know…
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I believe the story of the spring will be Dom Brown putting up huge numbers and earning a spot on the roster and regular playing time in LF, pushing Mayberry to 1B until Howard returns. Then the story will become what happens to Mayberry when Howard does return.
14 position players on Opening Day – Ruiz, Schneider, Mayberry, Wigginton, Thome, Utley, Rollins, Polanco, Brown, Victorino, Pence, Nix, Martinez, and Posednik.
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I really hope you’re right
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I also hope you are correct. If his fielding has also taken a step forward, it might even happen. But if his fielding is still sketchy, then even a monster spring offensively IMO won’t be enough for him to get a spot.
If I were the GM, I’d bring him north with the team even if fielding hasn’t made much progress, if his hitting is where it should be. But it’s pretty clear that the front office has lost faith in him as a prospect (wrongly, IMO), and it is going to take a heck of a lot to overcome that fact.
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I’m as big a Brown defender as any here. that being said, it would not be the end of the world for Brown to start the year in AAA. It is not as if he has a boatload of experience there and is too good for the level. Hitting AAA pitching will still be a challenge that he can use to improve, and if there is some unquantifiable advantage to playing outside the glare of the Philadelphia media (and fandom) than, so be it. I can’t really say one way or the other. I don’t think the Phillies are so rash as to have decided that he isn’t a part of their future. I do think there is a bit of an “old-school” element to our development program, and I think at this point the Phils want to see him (as my high school baseball coach once so eloquently said about me) “go from a two-incher to a footer.”
Use your imagination.
Whatever the case, I don’t think a couple hundred ABs in Lehigh Valley is the worst idea at this point.
That is in no a defense of how he’s been handled. If he’d simply been left to get is ABs there last year, and the late summer playoff push the year before, I don’t think we’d be having this discussion. But in the interests of looking forward, not back, Dom Brown in Lehigh Valley to start the season is not a travesty regardless of what he does in 100 Clearwater ABs this spring.
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His fielding wasn’t bad in RF. I won’t claim it was good. He was asked to quickly adapt to LF in the middle of the season and did not do at all well there. Perhaps with the off-season and ST he will be adequate in LF.
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IMO Ruben already has his mind made up…..Dom Brown goes to LHV for a few months no matter how good a spring he has. Ruben on talk shows keeps saying ..lets wait and see and then he will interject that Dom could really use a little more seasoning at the Triple A level getting more playing time and PAs.
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Not to beat a dead horse on this, but Ruben’s handling of this has been abysmal and confirms my extremely low opinion of the man. I’m okay with most of the off season moves – some more than others, but given salary constraints and who was available, his decisions were defensible. The Brown situation is indefensible.
If the Phillies are still a playoff caliber team in 5 years – and they may be, the organization has it’s strengths, and the team has plenty of money – it will be despite Ruben’s presence. He has the talent (in a negative sense) to fritter away all of the advantages that the franchise has.
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Larry, I really hope your wrong here with regard to Dom. It would be great if he were given the opportunity to make the team coming out of Spring Training, but I agree with you that it doesn’t seem likely.
The Phillies have screwed the proverbial pooch with their handling of Brown almost from day one. Here’s to hoping he put his defensive “yips” from 2011 behind him and is ready to tear the cover off the ball in March 2012.
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I don’t hesitate to get on RAJ for certain things but I put more of the blame on the player. At the end of the day its up to Dom to take his career by the horns and prove he is capable of playing at a high level.
What exactly did they do wrong with Brown? I’m not being a smart ass just saying the minor league numbers said he was ready for a shot but the MLB numbers said otherwise. At least from the standpoint that he was getting his shot on a championship caliber team.
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If you’re talking MLB numbers, his last month with the team he posted a .296/.398/.366 line. Brown’s season with the Phillies basically was: good May, horrible June, good July and sent down. Contrast with Mayberry: good April, horrible May, minors June, good July and stayed up. It is not unreasonable to say the Phillies have hurt this kid by yo-yo’ing him the last year and a half and sending him down after a month in which he was arguably the best hitter on the team (obviously the power numbers were down).
Brown’s issues were more in his defense and mental mistakes not his bat. Some of it also was the Phillies need for a RH power bat and Mayberry’s ability to come of the bench and contribute. In short, Brown’s bat is MLB ready, he needs to show his defense is at least MLB average. I do agree with some of posters however that Brown could stand to have some success at AAA and gain back some confidence and put those defensive “yips” behind him.
As for RAJ, I think the Phillies were hoping that they found someone in the Theo Epstein mold.. Instead what they seem to have gotten was a guy who outbids himself for FA’s, overpays for marginal talent, and traded away top prospects at a clip that would make the Yankees blsuh. While I do like some of his moves and love the pitching staff he has assembled, it hasn’t provided a championship yet. And until it does, all he is is a fantasy baseball GM, throwing money around acquiring “big names” and hoping to get lucky. Just my opinion anyway.
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Please add playing that talent while more deserving players sit.
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If I wrote the Ten Commandments ,three guys would give my thumbs down. lol
Finally Ps+Cs Its like hitting the seasonal lottery.
I hope Kratz makes an impression because hitters are needed
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I agree totally. If Dom comes north with the team and doesn’t hit, he’s done. They’ll send him to AAA to allow him to play without pressure while he learns leftfield and hopefully gets back to hitting. He is a guy, like so many others, who has to have confidence to play well and that comes from playing well. Say hello to Nix and Wigginton, they’ll be playing quite a bit until Howard gets back.
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I go both ways with RAJ. I actually think his saying Dom will go to AAA is strategic and good – takes the pressure off of him and lowers expectations.
On the flip side, this Papelbon thing was a disaster, nothing against Pap but he once again demonstrated no patience – like the Ibanez and Polanco deals.
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Polanco ? that was a good signing—as you have said before, Donald Trump, America’s Fearless Fosdick, will be investigating the other signings….or is it sightings ?
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As far as Hamels goes, I wouldn’t rush to go well over and above the 5 year, $100M threshold at this point. You have to think if the phils go $20M+ per year on Hamels, it does not leave them as much money for offensive players – the only guys coming off the books would be Polanco at $8.5M I think, Blanton at the same, and Victorino at about the same. That will pay for Hamels raise, and I’m sure a few other guys like Pence, Utley, Howard, etc will be getting more in 2013 than 2012.
Question is would you rather have Cole Hamels and an OF of Pence, Mayberry, and Brown, with a mid tier 3B Free Agent….or would the Phils be better off with David Wright at 3B and a lesser free agent pitcher like Anibel Sanchez or Gavin Floyd? Or how about Andre Ethier and one of those pitchers? Depending how this season plays out, it may be better to go for a bigger free agent position player than a starting pitcher. On the flip side, if Brown and Mayberry really show progress, and Howard and Utley come back strong, Hamels would be the way to go.
I know everyone wants Shane and Cole back cuz let’s face it, they rock. But Victorino is a speed guy in CF and do we really want to give him 5 years when maybe we could give someone like David Wright or Upton or Ethier a similar deal? Most big ticket free agents want to come to Philly, especially hitters.
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I’d still take Hamels.
Gavin Floyd, by the way, has a career ERA+ of 100. The very definition of an average pitcher. I just thought that was interesting since there was a time when people really seemed to regret trading him.
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No doubt and with the benefit of hindsight I might not re-do the Lee signing. Maybe we don’t win 102 games without Lee but we still win the division and quite possibly we have the money to make additional moves beside Pence.
Fast forward to today you could have made the Lee deal with Hamels, and you would have a shot at some decent #3 Starters for a lot less: Buerle, Oswalt, Jackson
I love Lee I really do I just think I prefer Hamels and his Change Up over Lee long term. I won’t blame Cole for holding out for at least what Lee got.
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I still regret that trade!!!!
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This is a strong comment for the most part – not sure I agree, but certainly you correctly set forth the trade offs intelligently.
But David Wright? Really? It isn’t 2008 anymore. But because hope springs eternal, he likely will be overpriced as a FA.
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David Wright isn’t the same ball player he was when he was an All Star, and I don’t want that contract for a slightly above average 3rd baseman.
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SInce the beaning/concussion in August of 2010 things have seem to change for him…on the other hand, the CitiField fence shortening could be to his benefit this year.
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“It isn’t 2008 anymore”
He ops’d .856 as recently as 2010.
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Down from .924 in 2008 and a whopping .771 in 2011. Not to mention his avg/ OBP have gone from .307/ .390 to .283/ .354 to .254/ .345 in the past 3 seasons. I see a pattern here. No thanks.
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Looking thru the Braves list of prospect I came across “Navery Moore”. So in theory somewhere in the world is a “Navery Savery”
OMG let it please be spring soon. A crocus, a robin or even “pitchers and catchers”
I need it badly
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Phillies are on Soler according to Olney
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Let’s hope they get that one done. That would be huge for the organization. It would be a good way to use the Phils’ money in the new luxury tax/draft bonus cap world.
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I’d love for them to sign him too because, he has a lot of ability and, hey, it’s not my money. That having been said, the Phillies caution in these large ticket international signings is understandable. When you are paying an all-star level player like Shane Victorino $27 million for a three-year major league contract where you know you are going to get a ton of value, it’s awfully hard to throw similar money at a 19 year-old who may never get out of AA. If I’m the Phillies, there’s no way I spend that kind of money on this kid unless I have a high level of confidence this this kid has more than a decent chance to develop into a superstar.
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Would Soler count toward hitting the luxury tax?
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No, because it is considered a signing bonus, not salary. Also, it does not count against the2012 free agent signing cap that can be spent on international players as this player and the other Cuban players were “grandfathered” under the old CBA system. Judging from what the A’s paid, Soler should go somewhere in the 14-20 million area so I have heard. The problem is that alot of the teams with $$$ will be chasing him. It will be the last chance for the teams with $$$ to bludgeon their brethren.
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then I dont see what the hold up is here. The money is there. This could fix the system extremely quickly.
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It would be a very optimistic OF future with Soler and Tocci coming up in the system.
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He’s not a free agent yet.
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o and thx for the quick answer!
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I believe he’d be put in the minors, so no.
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Some Club would probably offer him a major league Contract, if that was the case, matching it would count against the Luxury Cap. I hope I am wrong, but its Its the AAVof the contract that counts. So you could not back end it.
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On Brown and RAJ: We all should remember that it was Charlie who lobbied RAJ strongly to bring him up to the show mid-season against RAJ’s reluctance.
If you want to blame somebody, blame Charlie. Not RAJ. Except if you just don’t like him…
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The funny thing was how Charlie lobbied to get him then said get me a hitter. Rightfully so charlie was barking for better players and when you hear the name pence it is tough not to salivate as he is a good fit in the 5 hole behind Howard. It is hard not to imagine what the season may have been had he not gotten injured in the spring and was able to get through his struggles earlier in the year and have some polish heading into the playoffs. At some point he has to be put in the OF and just let to start and fight through the issues.
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Good points all around. Don’t think we really need to blame anyone for what happened with Brown at the end of the season. I personally would have liked to have seen Brown take playing time from Ibanez, but with the way Mayberry was hitting in a part time role and Charlie’s insistance on playing Ibanez, there was just no room for him once the Pence trade was made. I like Charlie, I just wish he had the same patience and confidence with young position players as he sems to have with his young arms.
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The problem was playing Ibanez. Ibanez even played instead of Mayberry in the playoffs. That was really dumb. Cholly is super loyal to his vets, but it is insane to playe the lesser player who won’t be back next season in place of the better player who will be a Phillie in 2012. It is dumb to say ibanez earned it. He certainly didn’t earn in during 2011. He got the big bucks for being below average. That’s enough of a nod to the old vet. Letting Polanco play injured, rather than getting surgery aand coming back for playoffs was another dumb cave in to what his vet wanted to do. Going with the two vets likely cost us advancing in the playoffs. We didn’t need Pence. We did need a heaalthy guy who could do a decent job with glove and bat at 3B.
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Finally someone not blinded by the Cholly bit. Even a peek at the stats proves you are 100% right. Why the blind loyalty to Raul when everyone knew he was gone after the season. Cholly has to take his “earn your money thing” and put it in the closet.
Whoever plays the best should play. There have been so many weird decisions like not putting Polanco in the hands of the doctors in the early summer when obviously something went wrong.
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Sorry N.W. above I feel no need to be Anonymous
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It looks like BA has an article up about Colvin. I am not a subcriber, but I hope that he has good things to say about this year compared to last.
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nothing in it that hasnt been said.
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Brody is going to have a huge year, will win 15
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Thanks Bob.
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Sunday, sunday, SUNDAY!!
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There were a couple articles about prospects in the Philly papers yesterday.
Brookover’s opinions: http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/139336318.html?viewAll=y
Another interview with Joe Jordan. Interesting that Gillies got a mention: http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/139405708.html?viewAll=y
Aumont can laugh at himself: http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/139411973.html
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Interesting tidbit from Cliff Corcoran at si.com: “None of the Phillies’ top four prospects — starting pitchers Trevor May, Jessie Biddle, Brody Colvin and outfielder Larry Greene, the team’s top pick in 2011 –will be in major league camp this spring, making Aumont, part of the package received from Seattle for Cliff Lee following the 2009 season, the most compelling youngster in camp.”
Interesting because he includes Colving and Larry Greene among the Phils’ top 4 prospects.
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mlbtraderumors
Last week, the three-way trade the Phillies were looking to send Joe Blanton to the Angels for Bobby Abreu, then flip Abreu to the Yankees for A.J. Burnett, sources tell Buster Olney of ESPN.com (via Twitter). The Phillies’ thinking was that two years of Burnett would have provided at least a bit of a safety net if they lost Cole Hamels to free agency,
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Glad it did not happen….rather have JB vs AJ.
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Here’s some news: Ibanez signs with Yankees. So, I figure that is the #57 pick or something. Word has it the deal was agreed to a couple weeks back, but awaited the completion of the A. J. Burnett trade .So , I think that pick is in the bag..Too bad that Lidge would not make the same sweetheart arrangement. And some said there was no chance of either getting a Major League contract. Some should keep track of moves that were made and not made as per the advocacy of folks on here. I think the results would prove to be different than what is the general perception. Maybe they’ll sign that 57, or whatever, pick and they turn out to be the greatest player in history , or not.
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DeFratus looks like he wont be ready for ST, meaning chances of him making the team out of spring are close to 0.
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Also since Ibanez just signed a major league deal, we get an extra draft pick in the comp round. Helps make up for “not waiting to sign papelbon and losing our first rounder” mistake.
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