2012 Reader Top 30, #29

2012 Reader Top 30

Michael Schwimer takes the #28 slot, edging out a trio of candidates who will now likely fight for the last two spots. Kelly Dugan will join them in the voting, though he’s not likely to take one of last spots. So far we have

01. Trevor May, RHP
02. Jesse Biddle, LHP
03. Sebastian Valle, C
04. Brody Colvin, RHP
05. Freddy Galvis, SS
06. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
07. Jon Pettibone, RHP
08. Justin De Fratus, RHP
09. Maikel Franco, 3B
10. Julio Rodriguez, RHP
11. Tyler Greene, SS
12. Larry Greene Jr, OF
13. Jiwan James, OF
14. Tyson Gillies, OF
15. Lisalberto Bonilla, RHP
16. Roman Quinn, SS/OF
17. Cesar Hernandez, 2B
18. Austin Wright, LHP
19. Brian Pointer, OF
20. Mitchell Walding, SS
21. Carlos Tocci, OF
22. Aaron Altherr, OF
23. Cameron Rupp, C
24. Austin Hyatt, RHP
25. Perci Garner, RHP
26. Harold Martinez, 3B
27. Harold Garcia, 2B
28. Michael Schwimer, RHP

Check below for #29

53 thoughts on “2012 Reader Top 30, #29”

    1. I think it is a coin flip between Savery and Diekman as to who will get a chance pitch in the majors in the future.

      Like

  4. I went Manzanillo by the slimmest of margins over Castro. In close calls I usually take the position player who is more certain to continue to progress without stumbling due to injury, but Castro’s injury reduces that. I weight proximity more than many others do, but both may start the year in Clearwater and Manzanillo is 2 years and 2 months younger than Castro, giving him the edge.

    Like

    1. I am curious to know your reasoning on preferring Dugan to Hudson and Castro. Dugan was demonstrably better with the bat than Hudson, but I have not heard anyone say he has any plus tools, whereas Hudson offers plus defense at an important position. As for Castro, he has a terrible OBP but seems to make up for it with some real pop.

      Like

      1. I feel like Castro’s ceiling is 4th outfielder and if he ever starts for a team in a corner, it probably means that team isn’t very good. Still, a decent 4th outfielder provides a lot more value than a fungible middle reliever.

        Given that we have virtually nothing to go on between Collier / Dugan / Hudson (and most of these others as well) I’ll trust the Phillies decision makers, who at some point thought Collier was worth 1mil, dugan 600k and Hudson around 350K if I recall. They no doubt have a lot more to say than those of us looking at Baseball reference.

        If I knew anything about Manznillo, maybe I’d go him, but at this point he’s been very young, very wild, and pretty bad, while being promoted aggressively. I don’t know what to make of that.

        Like

  6. I am tired of hearing about JC Ramirez’s stuff and potential. Last season’s 5.6 to 3.4 K:BB ratio dropped him to #31 on my list. His 3.4 BB/9 matched his career average, but his K rate was disturbingly low, His 4.50 ERA was nearly his career rate, but a bit above, which is the wrong way to be trending. Maybe he’s been pitching hurt the last 2 seasons. That’s why I have him at #31, just ahead of Savery at #30. After Manzanillo I have David Buchanan (just ahead of Jacob Diekman, another good prospect not on the ballot), who I will write in next round if Manzanillo wins now.

    Like

    1. Whoops! I posted 11 words to many. I won’t ever be writing in Buchanan because I forgot about Castro, who I will vote for at #30 if Manzanillo wins at #29.

      Like

      1. Disagree, thought his assesment was accurate he gave credit for the raw talent at the lower levels and it would be hard to disagree with his thoughts about the Phillies lacking anywhere close to finished products

        Like

        1. What great “finished products” do we have? I see a couple relievers and some possible role players. We have ZERO impact players in the system right now.

          Like

          1. I think our farm system has a lot of upside. Would not at all be surprised to see us back in the top 15 next season as other clubs graduate their top players and a few of our guys break out.

            Like

          2. It would seem that most Analysys still view Dom Brown as still have Star Upside and potentially not that far away.

            The issue is that he is no longer “officially” on most such lists.
            So while he will not make this List or that of BBA, we cant exclude the strong possibility that he will be a major part of the Phils plans in 2013

            Like

      3. While that may be the case…

        … anybody who thought we had a top 15 or even top 20 farm system needs to take the rose colored glasses off.

        Realistically we have one-two blue chip prospects left and they’re both high risk guys. Until we find out what we have in the 2011 draft class, our system is going to be what it is.

        Like

          1. Trevor May would probably be the only guy. I think Domonic Brown is going to have an impact at the MLB level at some point but he isn’t a prospect any more.

            Like

        2. A blue chip prospect is – by definition – low risk. We have zero blue chip prospects. I’m willing to look the other way and count Brown, but that’s the extent of things right now.

          Like

    2. from chat:

      Keith i know you said that the phillies have a lot of raw talent and not much finished products but the fact that their single A clubs were so prospect heavy has to account for something.
      12 Minutes Ago

      K_Law
      It does count for something. It’s why they’re not 29th.

      Like

      1. Thats funny Keith. Now that he works for the Astros I suppose outwardly he’ll want to de-value as many systems as he can….

        Like

    5. Probably correct assesment now….obviously, if and when 2011 draftees develop then ranking will change for the better.

      Like

    6. Hard to dispute that assessment. The system has been pretty much stripped of its best talent the last 2 or 3 years. It’s gonna take awhile to rebuild.

      Like

  9. Injury aside, Castro had arguably his best season at a higher level with the most power he’s ever shown. The BB rate has always been anemic but he’s been ranked the past few years and with a worse farm system, it doesn’t make sense to me why he’s going unranked now.

    Like

  10. Yes….Dugan back on the ballot…..I see a lot of talk about Plus defense and I get it but man you have to hit your way to the majors. I’ve never seen any reports to suggest Dugan is horrible in the field either.

    I can’t nor will I try to argue Castro’s athletic upside. Aside from being a year older he probably is the better prospect. I try to lean on the numbers first then put eyes on the player to see if he passes the test. based on the numbers Castro might be above James IMO. Look at James and Castro next to each other and what is the argument that James should be that many spots above Leandro….

    Like

      1. Castro has a shot but is much in need of a breakout (assuming Clearwater), unfortunately you can place twenty other guys in the same category.

        Called it here: Jeremy Barnes breaks out in 2012

        Like

        1. “In need of a breakout… ”
          Comparison:

          Castro: NYP, age 20, avg 316, obp 351, slg 512, OPS 863
          Dugan: NYP, age 20, avg 284, obp 343, slg 386, OPS 730

          Also, Castro is a CF/RF and Dugan is a RF/1B.
          Castro was and is, a better hitter than Dugan, on top of having more defensive value.

          Like

          1. Huh? NYPL was three years ago for Castro but I wasn’t drawing a comparison between him and Dugan anyway.

            But since u brought it up; Leandro has exactly a half-year of Advanced-A under his belt. He’ll be 23 in June. Assuming he repeats hi-A, he’ll be ‘in need of a breakout’ season unless you see a major leaguer developing out of a guy who drew 5 walks in 236 PAs last season in his 5th yr of pro-ball. If Castro was a stock I’d be selling

            Like

  11. JC Ramirez deserves to be on our Top 30 list. He’s only 23 and held his own at AA. I think we’ll see a much improved stat line this year provided he doesn’t get upped to LV

    Like

  12. Thru the first 25 spots this poll was not much different from my original top 30, except I had Gillies MUCH lower, Franco a little higher and Colvin a little lower. It looks like about 3 of my top 30 won’t make it. JC Ramiez, Lino Martinez and Adam Morgan.

    Like

    1. Hudson probably won’t make it either. I am somewhat surprised by that, because Jiwan James was voted in so high. It would seem that if you can see Jiwan James’ prospect value, Hudson wouldn’t be that far behind. His numbers/age-level and skill-set are very similar. BA and fangraphs seem to like him much more than most here.

      Like

  15. Hudson, again. He SEEMS to be on the cusp of coming forward to show his real worth. Lotsa tools. Should begin to realize his potential in ’12-’13.

    Go!

    Like

  17. I don’t get the Dugan love. In three seasons he didn’t make it to a full-season league and his OPS last year, is really pedestrian. They no longer have him playing CF, so a lot more bat is required. It all seems to come down to people put a lot of stock in him being a second round draft pick. He would not be the first wasted draft pick. Hewitt and Golson were first rounders. Dugan lacks their speed.

    Like

  18. J.C. Ramirez He should be in AAA this year, he has the arm and the stuff to make it to the bigs. He just needs to put it together. I think he will and he will surprise people this year.

    Like

Comments are closed.