2012 Reader Top 30, #28

2012 Reader Top 30

Harold Garcia wins the prize at #27, and we now move on to #28 with just 3 spots remaining. Mike Cisco picked up the most write-in votes so he enters the voting here. So far we have

01. Trevor May, RHP
02. Jesse Biddle, LHP
03. Sebastian Valle, C
04. Brody Colvin, RHP
05. Freddy Galvis, SS
06. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
07. Jon Pettibone, RHP
08. Justin De Fratus, RHP
09. Maikel Franco, 3B
10. Julio Rodriguez, RHP
11. Tyler Greene, SS
12. Larry Greene Jr, OF
13. Jiwan James, OF
14. Tyson Gillies, OF
15. Lisalberto Bonilla, RHP
16. Roman Quinn, SS/OF
17. Cesar Hernandez, 2B
18. Austin Wright, LHP
19. Brian Pointer, OF
20. Mitchell Walding, SS
21. Carlos Tocci, OF
22. Aaron Altherr, OF
23. Cameron Rupp, C
24. Austin Hyatt, RHP
25. Perci Garner, RHP
26. Harold Martinez, 3B
27. Harold Garcia, 2B
28.

Check below for #28

58 thoughts on “2012 Reader Top 30, #28”

    1. I voted for Ervis because there is always room in any Minor League System for a hard throwing lefthander and he has had some success.

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  3. Actually quite a few guys I like to watch play left here. Mitchell is a joy to watch as he plays hard, Savery looked good last year but I went with Schwim who is super smart and will learn how to cut a fast ball at lefties and bring it back towards the inside corner. He picks that up and his other pitches will be enough. That is the pitch that makes Worley!

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  4. i’ve been following this for a while now. Can someone please explain why a player like Schwimer, who may be called up this year can’t get on the prospect ranking ahead of players like–garcia, rupp, wright or hernandez? These guys will never see the big leagues except from the fans point of view.

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      1. These guys all vote for the guys that are higher draft picks that most haven’t even proven there self….. I don’t get it either….

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    2. I’ll take a swing at this one.

      Schwimer needs to develop an out pitch against lefties or he may never be more than a middle innings reliever. Like mwbbfan suggests, it could be a cutter. He might be able to master it. But if it were as simple as saying it, every righty would have a killer cutter and get out every lefty.

      Rupp profiles as a big league catcher with good defense and some power. Even a backup catcher is as valuable than a middle reliever, or at least they’re paid that way. Wright is a big lefty who’s shown a high K Rate in limited action – if he develops as a starter, he would be more valuable than a middle reliever. Hernandez is nationally recognized as high level 2B prospect, and while he may not be Jeff Kent or Chase Utley, he’s got good potential. Garcia hits and fields and runs – he broke a hitting streak record in the minors 2 years ago.

      So what about them makes you so sure they will never be in the bigs?

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      1. Schwimer never had trouble against lefties until 2011. My hope and expectation is that his splits were more mental and pitch selection last season and probably a lot of luck. I am a Schwimer supporter, but I do not count on him learning any new pitches, just on him getting smarter with the ones he currently has and putting up an average split. Regardless of his splits, which could be highly influenced by luck and small sample size, his overall stats have been great. Even against lefties last year he struck out over a batter per inning. ZiPS projects his 2012 MLB ERA to be 3.76 well ahead of Stutes’ 4.25, just ahead of Aumont’s and Contrares’ shared 3.86 and just behind De Fratus’ 3.64. I have Schwimer #15 on my personal prospect list and voted for him here.

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    3. If you’ve been following this for awhile then you should have seen the multiple discussions regarding the differences between proximity vs. potential.

      Guys like Schwimmer (who I actually voted for this round) are certainly more likely to see time in the major leagues vs. guys like Rupp, Garcia, etc. so it becomes a question of long term value potential. Most people view Schwimmer as a middle inning reliever at this point (I think he has a good chance to get better vs. lefties). While a good middle inning reliever is important, $$$ wise, they can be picked up on the FA market for a relatively modest sum.

      Contrast that will a guy like Garcia or Hernandez who at this point project as potential starters. A quality 4th-5th starting pitcher or starting caliber position player on the FA market costs at least 3x-4x more than a middle reliever.

      So yes, Schwimmer is more of a sure thing but if just one the 4 guys you mention turn out to be a major league starter, the Phillies will get greater value.

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      1. Great discussion that could really evolve into other lists that both would have merit: 1) Rank all of the prospects simply on your perceived certainty of making a ML appearance and 2) rank all of the prospects on your perceived certainty of the prospect gaining 5 years of ML service time. Many highly touted prospects flame out obviously so we would rank them differently if we are judging their likelihood of having an extended ML career. Rupp would be a top five pick for me on the latter list. Freddie Garcia would not.

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        1. If only we had a hybrid of Freddy Galvis and Harold Garcia. Freddy’s glove and Harold’s bat (although I’m not giving up on Freddy’s bat). Maybe we’ll get Harold Galvis.

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          1. I don’t understand how Galvis who had a horrible bat until he was moved to AA and AAA can be high on the list and his bat is still not that good. And Gillies who has awful at bats and has not had a good defensive season in years can be on the list.

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            1. Defense alone should be enough for D’Arby Myers to be on the list, just like Freddy G. If Freddy’s defense put him on the list so should Myers. Myers is the fastest in the org and can defend right, left and centerfield excellently.Myers need more playing time. Most guys on the list have either good ofense or defense. Why is Gillies on the list?

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            2. Myers needs to earn his playing time and clearly he cannot. Hence, I would consider the players he backs up to be better prospects than he. The Phils system has lots of plus OF defenders who are starters, not back-ups like Myers.

              Specifically regarding Gillies, he has actually had success in professional ball over a full season. Myers has not. By the way, they are the same age.

              Galvis has a premium glove at a premium defensive position. The idea that he could even be an average bat makes him a top prospect. Also, Galvis is a year younger than Myers and is at AAA compared to Myers at A+.

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            3. Myers has earned playing time as much as Gillies and more. Gillies has not played a whole season since being a Phillie. Gillies has not had an Avg over .154 since being a Phillie and .178 in winter ball. Myers finished his first yr in clearwater .268 James first yr .268, Myers Sal league .270 James Sal league .270 Myers has a premium glove with speed and he playes all the OF positions. Galvis .240 in 09 and .233 his 2010 season

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            4. Galvis was always a couple years young for his league. He was learning to switch hit. His body continued getting bigger and stronger and last season he fit in better physically with other AA, although at 21 he was still young for AA. This season at 22 he’ll be young for AAA but he should be physically stronger than he was last year, with more experience. Add in the fact that switching hitting will feel more natural too him. I’ve always been a big Galvis supporter. Because he is so young, it is unfair to compare him to others in his same league. It is better to compare him to others his own age. I was not surprised at all by his improvements last year, and I expect him to continue to improve at least until he is 25. By the time he is 26 in 2016 I expect him to be a league average or better full time major league short stop.

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        2. I actually completely agree with this statement. By making it just a “top 30” you get a mish mosh of guys – some with a lot of potential but not a lot of playing time and some who have made their way through and are approaching the big leagues, but who have become “less valuable” (have become more likely bench players and relief pitchers instead of starters) as they developed. It might be more realistic to have two lists.

          In any event, the exercise of crafting this list makes it pretty clear that the trade activity over the past few years has, actually, depleted the system a bit. It is becoming necessary for the newly drafted and very young to step up pretty quickly.

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      2. I’m glad you replied, I enjoy your answers. I’ve seen the discussions you mention but I think at some point in a prospects evolution of proximity is as important as potential. A player that is a fringe prospect like Schwimer or Savery, that is in the discussion for a ML roster spot is just as important to a team as a 20 something pitcher like Colvin. Now don’t get me wrong I know Colvin is great prospect with top of the rotation potential and Schwimer is a one inning reliever a best. But on a list like this I think the top 10-14 spots are reserved for true prospects with potential like galvis, colvin and may. The next 6-10 spots should be for prospects like savery and schwimer that can help in their way now. Truely great organizations, which are what the Phillies are working towards, have both prospects that can help today by being a plug in for a week or two when a regular gets hurt and prospects with high upside that they hope will develop into starters at the ML. The Rupps of the world are needed but how many times have a major league team called up a rupp or jason jamarmillo and he made a difference in season vs a kendrick, happ or a worley. Now none of these 3 were deemed “prospects” while in the minors but because of their proximity made considerable impacts. Do I think any of these 3 will be all stars, no but only the Yankees can afford a whole team of all-stars. Would a call up of Rupp- a back up catcher with pop be more important in the future then a Savery as the loogy(if he keeps up the control and renewed velocity)?

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    4. You should also ask yourself – what does it mean to be a prospect. There isn’t really a standard definition. For instance, I think for a player to be a prospect, he has to at least have a role player ceiling. If you’re familiar with WAR, visualize a 1 WAR player as the absolute minimum ceiling.

      Schwimer’s ceiling right now is very fringy role player. If he gets that cutter mentioned above, he’d be in the teens, but we can’t assume he’ll learn that. So while many of the names you mentioned will not sniff the majors like Schwimer, they all currently have significantly higher ceilings. That makes them prospects, whereas that title is debatable when applied to Schwimer.

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    5. Wondering this too, with both Schwimm and Savery. Even if they aren’t likely to be anything more than situational guys, proximity alone should get them on the list.

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  5. I love the fact that at 28 theres still decent names left on the list. I have to go Castro here but the fact that JC Ramirez, Michael Schwimer, Joe Savery to name a few are still available gives me a good reason to check the site at least 5 times a day when the season starts.

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  6. I went Manzanillo. Why? Because SP are more valuable than any position in baseball. And lefty starters are even more valuable.

    As for the Schwimer thing, I like the guy. I think he’ll have a Chad Durbin-esque career (good, not great, and necessary to a good team). I would like that entire career to be with the Phillies. I also think after his career is over he would make a phenomenal sports writer for the Phils. But I do not consider low ceiling guys to be prospects. No matter how close they are to the majors. He could prove me wrong by developing that out pitch (as mentioned a couple times now), but I can not speculate on something that has not shown itself in the least. I can dream on Valle’s power because he’s shown flashes of it. I can’t dream on a pitch Schwimer has never thrown. Can he develop it? Certainly. But nothing to this point says that he will (other than he’s smart, but that only helps with understanding HOW to throw the pitch, not necessarily its execution).

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  7. I guess I’ll continue to champion for Kelly Dugan. 75th Pick overall in 09. Been around a while but still just 21. In his injury shortened season he was hitting .366 with a .981 OPS. The injury was a freak injury. He hit a ball off of his shin then it became infected with staph.

    You can dream on Manzanillo’s big arm if you like but when I see a pitcher with a WHIP above 1.51 said pitcher has big problems until he proves he can bring that down below 1.30.

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    1. I think it is safer bet to dream on a 19 year old, Left handed pitcher in Full-season ball, who throws mid 90’s, than it is to dream on a 20 year old OF/1B still in Shortseason ball. Especially when that corner OF/1B’s only has 3 HRs and 22 doubles, in close to 500 PAs, 3 years at the lowest levels.

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  8. I’ll go Manzanillo again. Dugan might well have a breakout year, but for now, he is a guy who put up only a .729 OPS in Williamsport last year. He is a primo HS draft pick who has spent all of his first 3 seasons in short-season ball. That is usually the kiss of death. HS kids whom the Phillies think highly of spend their 2nd year in Lakewood.
    I will have Schwimer and Savery in my personal top 31 (chosen, because that’s how many BA selects)
    I don’t think a list like this, which includes guys yet to make an appearance in a single professional baseball game in the United States, can be one in which proximity is assigned a very high priority. If I had my druthers, I wouldn’t let a guy be eligible until he has played a pro game here, but that bridge has long since been crossed. I think it a sign of the reduced strength of the system that this line has been crossed so many times in compiling this year’s list.
    It is hard to identify an experienced guy on the list who doesn’t seem to belong on this year’s top 30. Perhaps Gillies, figuring that he has talent but has to prove himself healthy and play himself back onto the list. I think Rupp is a legit listing.

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  9. I like Manzanillo based on his stuff, but I went with Castro because he’s actually shown some performance on the field and above SS ball no less. Good power, decent speed, decent contact but poor on base skills. He’s still young enough to work on his batting eye/discipline and let his tools come through.

    10 homers at Clearwater is no joke. And he slugged .481 which would have been 6th in the league if he had enough ABs to qualify.

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  10. I have JC Ramirez rated higher than Manzanillo, but I have Manzanillo rated higher than Schwimer. Since it looks like this round is Manzanillo v Schwimer, I’ll vote Manzanillo.
    I disagree whole heartedly that Schwimer should be rated higher due to proximity. IMO, he is no closer to the Majors than JC Ramirez, or Jeremy Horst for that matter. Schwimer has little, to no chance to make the major league roster out of Spring training.
    Being a journeyman, below replacement level, September call-up doesn’t make you a better prospect than someone with better stuff.

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    1. How can Schwimer who has already logged 12 Appearences and 14 innings
      with 10K per 9 after being called up just prior to the Rosters being expaned last year not be closer?

      The fact he was called up on Aug 30th indicated the Phillies wanted to ensure he could be placed on the Post Season Roster if needed.

      He may or may not make the roster out of the gate, but I fully expect him to pitch in Philly again this season as some point, something I do not expect of the others.

      This does not mean I voted for him at this slot, but he clearly has proximity over the players you refereenced.

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      1. Eric Kratz was a September call-up too. That doesnt mean he is a better prospect than Cameron Rupp…
        But more to the point: Schwimer is at best a replacement level arm, who almost definitely will not beat out Papelbon, Bastardo, Contreras, Qualls, Kendrick, Dontrell Willis, Jaime Garcia, Herndon, Stutes, De Fratus or Aumont. Everybody has seen him pitch. He won’t see the big club unless there is a rash of injuries or he is again a September call-up. JC Ramirez or Tyler Cloyd could easily be called up over Schwimer, in those circumstances, and Ramirez has more talent.

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      2. “How can Schwimer who has already logged 12 Appearences and 14 innings
        with 10K per 9 after being called up just prior to the Rosters being expaned last year not be closer?”

        His 2 blown saves in 12 apperances (2 b/s that costed Roy Halladay the cy young possibly), His 5.02 ERA, 1.54 Whip, 9.4 H/9, and 4.4 BB/9 would tell me he’s not ready…. not to mention his AWFUL numbers against left handed hitters.

        I’m with VOR, there’s no shot this guy is on the opening day roster baring a Stutes like run in Spring. I don’t think he’s MLB ready at all.

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        1. His “Awful” numbers against Lefties actually ENHANCES his chances at making the team.
          The reason is that he would likely be looking at the very backend of the pen where he would enter more as a situational reliever, which would make his INCREDIBLE numbers against rightie important and more useful than a pitcher with relatively balanced L/R numbers.

          Alsoe his 1.5 WHIP in the Majors and 1.0 Whip in AAA look better than Aumont’s 1.5 AAA WHIP IMHO. Especially with the ability to bring him in to face Righties with RISP where Ks are needed.

          Yes, He needs an out pitch for Lefties and this is why his ranking is not higher. But he is more than capable right now to excel as a situational reliever and his numbers point that out.

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        2. Sample size, sample size, sample size…

          What he did in 14 innings at the end of last season is completely meaningless.

          It’s unlikely Schwimer makes the roster out of ST because of the number of veteran arms they have but he is certainly much more likely to hit the roster before JC Ramirez.

          I also disagree that Ramirez has more talent. He certainly hasn’t shown it at this point in the minors.

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  11. Just pleased that The List is finally reaching its end. After THE MAN here furnishes his list and justifications, there will be a little time to discuss that…and then on to pitchers and catchers reporting in Clearwater.

    I voted Hudson here. Maybe as much “potential” as any OFer on the list so far.

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  13. General Discussion Note: Ed Wade and Ruben Amaro recent conversation,
    ‘After rejoining the Phillies, Wade was asked by Amaro how much he still knew about the Phillies farm system. He could not pass up the opportunity at a good-natured jab. “I said, ‘I know enough to know the better players are all wearing Astros uniforms now,’ ” he said. That, of course, is in reference to the two trades Wade made with Amaro during his tenure as the Astros general manager’.

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  14. I know I’ve been on this site for a while now, and this may sound like a rediculous question to ask, but I’m going to ask it anyway. It seems people here value left handers inherently higher then righties. But stastically speaking, it doesn’t appear they’re any more valuable strait up vs a RHP. I get the bar is lower from a talent perspective by virtue of RHP’s being more common (and subs hitters being more comfortable facing them), but nothing i’ve read so far indicates prima facie evidence on this lower bar to the point of being so much lower as to be worthy of a significant adjustment in value. When I hear people here talk about it, the “affirmative action” provided lefties seems enormous and I just don’t get it. Anyone want to take a stab at an explanation on that?

    Maybe what i’m really looking for is a discussion on how much more value a lefty provides when comp’d to an equivalant righty (in stuff). Does a righty version of cole hamels really perform significantly worse? If so, how much? Are we talking a 2.8 ERA v 2.9? or more like 2.8 v 3.2? (So a 12.5% improvement for being a lefty).

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    1. On hind sight, maybe a better comp would be roy halliday. Would a left halliday post a 2.1 instead of 2.35? (or an ERA+ of 185 instead of 165?)

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    2. I can’t answer your question, but I don’t find the similar stats compelling evidence at all against the “left handers are better if ‘stuff” is equivalent” narrative. What you would expect, if the narrative is true, is proportionately more left handers than right handers (that is, more than in the general population), but equal (roughly) stats. That is, equal stats despite worse “stuff” on average for lefties.

      And that is exactly what you get. 10% lefties in the general population, versus roughly 30% of batters faced by left handers.

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  15. I always made the assumption that leftanded hitters have more trouble hitting LHPs than righthanded hitters have hitting RHPs. If that’s the case, and if left and righthanded batters hit opposite-handed pitchers about equally, then being a LHP would be preferred because you have an advantage against most lefthanded hitters that RHPs don’t. The implication is that, yes, a lefty pitcher will outperform a righty pitcher who is equal in ability.

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    2. But there’s a problem with that logic, it assumes a 50/50 split of R/L batters. Since there are more righty batters, the advantage against lefties is probably erased.

      I can tell you my old childhood scouting amateur scouting buddies can talk to you all day about how much movement left-handers generate versus right handers. They’ll tell you that it’s just a function of throwing left handed. I don’t know if you want to drink that kool-aid, I don’t, but that seems to be the general consensus.

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  16. Lefty/lefty matchups are more advantageous to the pitcher than righty/righty. However, there are far more righty/righty matchups than lefty/lefty. What I find fascinating is that overall, lefty pitchers allowed an OPS of .714. Righty pitchers have allowed an OPS of .713. Almost exactly even, and we’re looking at a sample of just shy of 100,000 plate appearances.

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  17. Quick Question why Has No one voted for LHP Adam Morgan? Hes a year younger than Austin Wright and Dominated. Also MLB.com gives a review of the phillies top 20 prospects, sleepers. Ethan Stewart, and Anthony Hewitt made top 20.

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    1. The Pharm is weak, but any list that puts Hewitt in the top 20 is bogus. Everyone in our top 27 and on the list to be voted is better than Hewitt. Hewitt might be at about #50. Like Pierre, he can always pinch run.

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      1. If you look at Baseball in the last few years a player that can hit 25- 30 HR can hit 240 and still get payed millions of Dollars(Dunn,Reynolds,Pena). personally I don’t like it but that’s were the love for Hewitt comes from. If you add his defense to the picture I can see why they still have hope for him.

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          1. Those guys also walk quite a bit more and, believe it or not, strike out at a lower rate in the major leagues than Hewitt does in the minors.

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    2. Probably because, compared to Wright, he’s not a big guy, he finished the year at a lower level and his strikeout numbers are less impressive. Also Wright has had some intriguing scouting reports linked to him, and I don’t recall any for real scouting reports on Morgan. Also, he’s a little less than a half year younger, not a full year.

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    3. I also think with only 1 year of big college ball Wright seems more green, making his short season of 2011 seem more impressive. Morgan’s his statistically unimpressive 2011, especially the lower K Rate, probably hurts many opinions of him. A guy as highly drafted, you’d expect to do what Wright did, not the other way around. Could be perception more than anything. We’ll see how they do in 2012.

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  18. I actually like hewitt here even though his walk to k rate is horrible. But hewitt lways was a project from the start. If he could significantly cut down the k’s and draw more walks(unlikely but possible) as he learns how to be a baseball player he has potential. He could be a .230-30-85 with 30 sb’s if he could keep his OBP around .290, then he could be a starter on a bad team. Think a poor man’s eric davis. The chances of this is less than 10% but many guys left on the list don’t have starter talent/potential like hewitt. This is probably his ceiling and his floor is to not make it past AA.

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    2. Saying “less than 10% chance” is overselling him. I’d give him less than a 1% chance to ever reach the majors as anything but a Greg Golson-esque September call-up/pinch runner type.

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    3. What’s the slash line Hewitt needs in CLR in 2012 to not get released? 270/330/400? I think that’ll move him up to Reading in 2013. It’s about what Jiwan had last year, with a god bit more SLG, though Hewitt will be playing the league a year older, and without the benefit of the lowered expectations after 2 yrs of pitching.

      Or do we think they keep him around because of all the money they spent on him?

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  19. Adrian Cardenas signs with the Cubs looks like he’ll push Barney for the 2B position. Possible Platoon. We’ll see what happens.

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