2012 Reader Top 30, #20/21/22

2012 Reader Top 30

Carlos Tocci and Mitchell Walding are separated by 2 votes, which means we’ll need a runoff to settle the score. While that happens, I’m also going to open up #22, so vote for both below. Matt Rizzotti and Cody Asche received the most write-in support so they will be added to the voting for #22.

01. Trevor May, RHP
02. Jesse Biddle, LHP
03. Sebastian Valle, C
04. Brody Colvin, RHP
05. Freddy Galvis, SS
06. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
07. Jon Pettibone, RHP
08. Justin De Fratus, RHP
09. Maikel Franco, 3B
10. Julio Rodriguez, RHP
11. Tyler Greene, SS
12. Larry Greene Jr, OF
13. Jiwan James, OF
14. Tyson Gillies, OF
15. Lisalberto Bonilla, RHP
16. Roman Quinn, SS/OF
17. Cesar Hernandez, 2B
18. Austin Wright, LHP
19. Brian Pointer, OF
20.
21.
22.

Check below

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63 thoughts on “2012 Reader Top 30, #20/21/22”

  1. All this ferver over Carlos Tocci, who looks to be like a promising player, and not one mention yet of Herlis Rodriguez. Herlis was the buzz of the board last year and it seems many have forgotten about him. I still have Perci Garner ahead of him, so I can’t write HerRod in yet, just surprised by a lack of mention to this point.

    On the runoff, I went with Walding. Going with the slightly older state-side player based on…well, gut feel. I actually have Walding/Tocci as 21/22 on my list so no real huge feeling one way or the other. Just going with the infielder at this point.

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    1. I have HeRod at #25. He was very young and did pretty well. However, Tocci was far far better than HeRod in the same winter league. Also, HeRod didn’t have a big bonus and has not gotten much commentary from the likes of BA.

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    2. When Tocci was mentioned for the first time, I mentioned Herlis and that I’d be more comfortable voting for him than Tocci. I’ve warmed to Tocci but again he has a very tiny sample size. Herlis has a full season where he started hot and then cooled but kept making adjustments. they are a year apart in age. I’ll have Tocci in my top 30 but I will have Herlis just a little outside.

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        1. Mitchell could be a great 4th or 5 th outfielder on anyones team. He has better than avg speed has a great noise for the ball good arm, good power, made a lot of great catches last year, and I know for sure Parent loved him.

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    1. Rupp could absolutely become a starting catcher ultimately. No reason to limit his upside at this point, his 2nd half was very encouraging.

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      1. Rupp is a big guy and I like that in a catcher. He hit a little too last year. He’s older than I’d like but catchers move along slowly, like Valle. It doesn’t hurt to have a big, physical guy who is known for his defense behind the plate. I think he’ll pop a few homers along the way too. I’ve been voting for him in the last two slots.

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  3. The current list of choices has more AAAA guys than actual prospects. At this point, I start making my judgment based perceived trade value. Of the guys on the current list, I can only imagine Rupp, Perci Garner and maybe Altherr having enough value for another team to actually trade for them. The only other players in the system I would say has that kind of value would be JC Ramirez, Lino Martinez and maybe Manzanillo.
    I’ll write in JC Ramirez.

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  4. I went with Altherr here. While his performance last year was disappointing, he apparently still has a lot of ability. His upside keeps him in my personal top 20.

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  5. I just looked at the BA top 31 for the Phils and was surprised at the placement of Manzanillo, especially relative to J-Rod. It made me go check their stats and I was surprised to see that Manzanillo had a FIP of 3.85 compared to J-Rod at 3.46. Not as big a difference as I would have thought (though obviously J-Rod’s was at a higher level). It seems like control is the biggest issue for Manzanillo. But it is nice to have my eyes opened to someone that was off my radar screen. Kudos to the poster here who has been talking Manzanillo up the past few rounds.

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    1. In a BA Chat, Matt Forman compared Manzanillo’s progression to Bastardo. A bit of a late bloomer but a terrific arm. Said he has better raw stuff then Biddle. Not surprised BA had them higher then us since his numbers don’t really tell the whole story.

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      1. Thanks a lot Nick. Manzanillo is certainly young enough to spend more time developing his control. Here’s hoping he has a Bastardo-like path.

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    2. I’ve mentioned Manzanillo a couple times recently. I thought about picking him today but decided to go on-list with Rupp. It wouldn’t be “wrong” to slot him at 22 though.

      Mark Anderson of Baseball Prospect Nation turned me on to Manzanillo just a couple weeks back. We’ve been chatting ever since I started linking his prospect write ups at THT.

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  6. I think it is really cool we have infield prospects on the list in general. I have been watching this site for years this is the first time we have “talent” in those positions. I for one am excited.
    All the specific positions on the list be damned – I do understand this exercise, and follow it closely, I am just pumped we have talent in practically every position. Maybe not blue-chip talent, but hope nevertheless.

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  7. I went Tocci for 21 and would have voted Walding next.
    I have no firm stance on 22, but I went with Rupp who has started to turn it around after a very poor pro start and may contribute n the big team one day albeit not as a star.

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    1. Rupp is a good receiver. He handled the Univ. of Texas staff for a few years. He has done well with the Phillies next generation after the baby aces and Valle. I see no reason why he can’t be a starting catcher — if not with the Phillies; then in a trade to get a player for the stretch run. I had mentioned Manzanillo because he has good stuff and was being ignored. It is good that his potential is being recognized on this site.

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  8. Harold Martinez – decent plate discipline, apparently a solid 3B. Hopefully his power rebounds a bit after adjusting to pro ball. My guess is he starts at Clearwater so that Franko can get all of the reps at Lakewood

    – Jeff

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        1. Where did this come from? We have Valle, Franco, Bonilla, Cesar Hernandez and even Galvis on the list. Tocci’s getting a lot of votes sight unseen. Even Herlis Rodriguez has gotten a mention or two. The guys from the US draft have stats and write-ups. the LA guys don’t quite have the hype so they have to come over and prove their abilities. Many of them do. Leandro Castro will get some support at the end of the list. He probably gets the least respect since all he does is produce. He’s not a toolsy sort of guy and he has a wart or two but he’ll get some votes and hopefully will make the list.

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  11. Can someone explain how Aaron Altherr fell to at the highest 22? His numbers took a dip last season but he’s still very young and mostly failed at a level to high for his age.

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    1. He had a lower OPS in 2011 than he did in 2010 in the same league (many more ABs than in 2010). The average age for hitters in the NYPL was 21 and he was 20. He was a league-average bat. Hence I found his performance to be not all that exciting. That said, I voted for him here.

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      1. In the search box on the CSNphilly.com website I just typed in top 30 prospects and it pulled right up. It has Quinn at #11. L. Greene #20, Walding #23 and Schwimer #30

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    2. Wow, that’s a big surprise to me. So is not including Pointer or Gillies, (though I guess Gillies less since he hasn’t been playing at all). And Hudson at 18 seems really high.

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      1. Hudson according to his write up has two plus-plus tools. Defense and speed. If there is any chance of the bat developing further (and he took a big step forward in 2011), that’s a high upside player. IMO, he should at least be in our top 30.

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      2. I’m not surprised BA has Hudson that high. They have Jiwan James rated in the top 10. Check Hudson’s numbers. He is virtually the same player as Jiwan James except he steals bases at a better rate. Plus he is young enough for you to dream on power getting better.

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      3. Hudson had a terrible first year of pro ball and many kind of wrote him off, but he really rebounded in his second year – and he put up comparable numbers to Altherr at Williamsport. I believe that Hudson has the better tools of the two, and his defense is said to be outstanding already. I personally have him at 21 on my board.

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    3. This whole board I think greatly overrates Tyler Greene, he is probably deserving to be in the 20s but there is a reason why the Phillies gave him 300k and Walding 900k and that says who they valued higher. I am glad to see Garner up there on the BA list though he is still behind Altherr for me who is being criminally undervalued. He had a down year that started with the Phillies trying to get him to play 3B. But he has tools everywhere and is my candidate behind Hudson for breakout prospect next year.

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      1. Can we really compare those bonuses fairly? Walding held out for signing day, Greene signed really early. He obviously wanted to either get his name on the contract for the money he could get, or wanted badly to get on the field. He took his $375k and started his career. Yes, Walding got more, (I read 800k on this site, but maybe it was actually 900k like you said), but the situations are obviously different.

        Not to say that Walding won’t be better in the end, but many folks on here, myself included, have picked Greene higher because of his admittedly small sample of results compared to Waldings zero pro ABs. If I had to guess which guy was more likely to have a terrible year, based on everything I know, it would be the guy who hasn’t shown us he’s capable of at least getting on base some against professional pitchers.

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        1. I highly doubt either Walding or Greene will have a “Terrbile Year” They are both great players. Greene’s numbers were ok and Walding never even had an at bat except at instructional where he hit very well. So apparently based on “everything you know”, you don’t know much.

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        2. The problem with that analogy is even though Greene had faced professional pitching and did OK. Walding out hit him in Instructionals.So if you take the small amout of professional at bats out of the equation & compare them at the same level facing the same pitching,who did better.Walding…

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          1. I am excited to see them both play! I hope they both hit the heck out of the ball at Spring Training.

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          2. That is LARGE Bull. Walding didn’t even get on the same field as T Greene. He played in the lower class of players and did not hit!!

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            1. You are out of your mind.Your really trying to say they invited him to instructional & he didn’t hit.You better get your facts straight.That is about as funny as people trying to convince us he gave up hundreds of thousands of dollars in signing bonus so he could get on the field a few weeks earlier.How Many K’s did he have in Instructionals,I’ll tell you a lot.

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    4. Im reading the book right now. They talk about Greene a little. I saw this coming when he wasnt in the GCL top 20. Im not sure they got many reports on him. I know perfect game is much higher on Greene than BA was.

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  13. adam morgan please, 21 year old lefty off a solid season at alabama and williamsport, mentioned on jim salisbury’s list and i completely agree that he is already solid but could make a big jump this year

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    1. I think I voted for Austin Wright, but meant Adam Morgan. Wasn’t there a blurb about Mogan that he might be one of the big “steals” (granted, still a 3rd rder) of the draft?

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  14. I think Rupp still has the chance to be a major league starter at catcher so that’s pretty good to me. I also found it very interesting that BA totally overlooked Tyler Greene, and Pointer. I could understand Gillies being overlooked due to losing 2 years but excluding Tyler surprised me since Quinn, Walding, Greene Jr, Wright and Morgan (and Tocci) all made the list. I have to assume it was just an oops. As for Manzanilla, I don’t even see him having a starting spot this year. His growth will have to come in the pen. Lots of us like Altherr and Hudson but they’re on the list, with Gillies, Dugan, Pointer and eventually Collier, of guys that really need to step it up this year or get passed on the prospect ladder. I was happy to read someone’s post last week that Eldemere was feeling better. He’s another guy, coming from college and missing time with injury, that needs to play and do well to stick around. I heard a negative report on Nick Hernandez last week saying he was still feeling pain but I haven’t confirmed it yet. If true, he’s probably done unfortuantely.

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    1. Last year was Pointer’s first full year and he did very well. I am willing to give him more than just this year to prove he is legit.

      I think Manzanillo will be starting in Lakewood again. He is young and has good stuff. They will give him another chance.

      I agree with everything else you said.

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      1. I also see no reason why Manzanillo wouldn’t be starting in Lakewood. He has one of the better pitching upsides in the system so they’ll give him multiple shots to succeed.

        He might ultimately be a reliever, but many relievers get work as starters at the lower levels before changing roles.

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      2. Yeah Manzanillo is 20 so keeping him at Lakewood will help. Clearwater should have Buchanan, Biddle, Bonilla, Wright, and Claypool. Lakewood could have Manzanillo, Garner, Morgan, Nesseth, and Lino Martinez.

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  15. Perci Garner…….he did some nice things when he was finally healthy, I look to see the Phils move him along this season.

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  16. Watching for another tall and big RHSP Kevin Walter to come around this year. He and Ethan Stewart intrigue me….both could place in the prospect watch late 20’s.

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      1. I’d love to see Nick healthy. I remember it seeming like every box score you’d look at he’d be doing well.

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        1. Turns 24 this summer….if healthy has a ways to go to catch up. Him and Matt Way have battled health issues from the start it seems.

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  19. Anyone watch Hotstove last night? Michael Taylor had a great piece on how he is doing an internship with a local sports talk radio station in Oakland. They even interviewed Billy Beene on his thoughts about the show.

    Supposedly he is going to get ever shot at earning a big league spot this season. I wish him luck. he was a great PP while he was here.

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