Someone emailed me asking my thoughts on Yoenis Cespedes, the 26 year old internet sensation who has now established residency in the Dominican Republic and will soon be granted MLB free agency. The Phillies worked out Cespedes in November, with Pat Gillick making the trip to see him. In every subsequent article written about Cespedes, the Phillies are mentioned. At the end of December, Bob Brookover wrote about the Phillies interest, as well as their interest in Jorge Soler (more on him later) but seemed to spell out that both guys would be out of the Phillies price range. So there are a number of questions: how good are these guys, do the Phillies have a realistic chance to sign them, and where would they rank among our current prospects? I’ll try to answer those questions below the fold.
Yoenis Cespedes, OF (Age 26)
Cespedes has drawn the most coverage of the 3 notable Cuban defectors. From a raw tools perspective, he looks incredibly impressive. He’s built like a free safety, has impressive speed, impressive raw power, and though its not as important as the first two, he’s overflowing with swagger and confidence. Which is either a good or bad thing, depending on how you look at it. Scouts believe he’s close to big league ready, and at 26 and considering his asking price (north of $30M), he should be. Of course, there are a number of warning flags. He’s played his whole life in Cuba, and the Cuban League is a far cry from Major League Baseball. There are plenty of talented players in Cuba, but the infrastructure is nowhere near what MLB has. By that I mean the amount of scouting and preparation put in to try and pick a guy apart and find his weaknesses. There is nowhere to hide at the big league level, and after one time through the league, teams have a book on you. Its then up to you to adjust. How well will Cespedes make adjustments? Well, your guess is as good as mine. The common question for most people when talking about anyone from Cuba (or Latin America, for that matter) is “how old is he really?”…things have gotten a bit more transparent in the Internet Age, but when you still have things like the “Fausto Carmona” and “Leo Nunez” fiascoes, who really knows, and I guess the skepticism is warranted. If Cespedes is 26, then he’s entering his physical and performance peak. While US born prospects have an advantage over him with regard to the culture and nuances of baseball in this country, he has played a number of seasons at the highest level in Cuba and on the international stage.
He recently played a handful of games in a winter league in the Dominican Republic, and though the results weren’t good at all, I wouldn’t be concerned. He hasn’t played baseball for a while, and if anyone sits around just taking BP/shagging flies for a year, they are going to have considerable rust. The question becomes, how much is he worth, and is it something the Phillies would do? The answer to the first question is very subjective. With MLB attempting to close the loop on international (and domestic) spending on amateur talent, he will be one of the last big money international signings. Depending on who you read, he could get anywhere from $20M to $60M. That’s a whole lot of dough for someone with no experience in the US. Because of the Phillies current payroll and where the luxury tax threshold sits, the Phillies are probably not in a position to offer him a 5 year, $50M deal. and I think he might get something close to that. If he signs, based purely on his physical tools and what he might become (a .275 hitter with 20+ HR and 15 SB in CF) he would be our top prospect. But I’d put the chances of the Phillies signing him at like 5%
Jorge Soler, OF (Age 19)
In addition to scouting Cespedes, the Phillies have also actively followed the case of Jorge Soler, another Cuban defector, and another promising outfielder. Soler, 7 years younger than Cespedes, is already 6’3/205 and has both plus (maybe plus plus) speed as well as big time power projection. Because he’s younger, he’s less accomplished and of course even riskier. That said, a lot of smart front offices (A’s, Red Sox, PHILLIES!) seem to have prioritized Soler over Cespedes. I have not seen dollar figures for his estimated bonus, but I’d have to think it will be at least $15M, and probably more. That, however, is more in the realm of realism for the Phillies. The Phillies signing of Carlos Tocci this summer for $760K was a significant sign, as they normally never spend anywhere close to that on international talent. With MLB preparing to close all the loops, this is potentially the last crop of big time international guys who could see huge bonuses. Soler has been compared physically to Hanley Ramirez, and as of now he profiles as a stud right fielder thanks to his above average arm strength. Will the Phillies get involved? I’d say probably not, unless the price is something like a 5 year contract worth $10M or so. But evaluating how teams deal with Cuban/Latin American prospects and how they deal with the draft is a different animal. No one really knows, and it appears the Cespedes domino will be the first to drop, then Soler will follow. Of the two though, I think I’m more excited about the prospect of Soler being added to the system. Should the Phillies sign him, he’d easily be our best prospect, and the folks at BA have even said he would be considered a top 10-15 prospect in all of baseball…the tools are that good.
Gerardo Concepcion, LHP (Age 18)
The last of the trio, and the least heralded, is lefty Gerardo Concepcion, who has also been working out for teams, and again the Phillies name has been tossed around. The connection here seems to be a bit less concrete, and it seems the Phillies have just been attached to him because of their interest in the other two. He’s more projection than results right now. Standing 6’1/175, he’s thin and has only average velocity (88-91) but could develop a bit more with a professional workout plan, and 18/19 year olds are normally able to add good weight (muscle) in their late teens/early 20s. Still, he’s all projection. So how much would he cost, and should the Phillies get involved? Well, sure they should get involved. As this article points out, the Royals signed Cuban pitcher Noel Arguelles, himself a lithe lefty (who was 19 when he signed) for 5 years/$7M in 2009. So far, they haven’t been rewarded, as Arrguelles missed all of 2010 through injury and then put up modest numbers in the A+ level Carolina League in 2011. They still have 3 years left to see what happens, and they are probably still okay with the risk they took. So, is Concepcion in line for the same deal? I’d say that’s close, or he may get something like 5 years/$10M total. I’ve never seen Concecpcion even throw a single pitch, so I can’t even give you any thoughts at all. Scouts seem intrigued, though they all seem to agree he lacks ace upside. Still, he could be worth the money if he develops and adds a bit more velocity. Of the 3 prospects mentioned, Concepcion is the most likely to be in the Phillies price range. Will the Phillies get involved? I don’t know. If the Phillies did sign him, I think he’d slot in right behind Jesse Biddle in the Phillies top 10.
So there you go. Its fun to dream on these guys and the Phillies making a big splash, but history says we shouldn’t get too excited. But why deprive ourselves of the fun, even if we know in the back of our minds its not going to happen? So have fun until they sign, and then we’ll move on.
Phuture Phillies 
I’d go for Soler. I see no reason not to, and being so young it will give him a year to adjust and a couple of years to show us what he has. I know we spend a lot, but I feel this is worth the risk, and that at the worst he’d still make it to the big leagues in a capacity.
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Not sure that questioning LA players ages has anything to do with racism. Questions are based on real examples of Latin American players fudging their birth certificates. It’s gotten much better but as Nunez and Carmona show, it’s still not perfect. As far as Cuban players go, there really isn’t any way to confirm their birth information coming out of the Castro regime.
As for the players themselves, Solar would be the only one who should get consideration. The Phillies should have no interest in paying Cepedas roughly $8M-$10m per season to maybe provide average production in CF when you could play a similar amount to get a proven performer like Victorino, Bourne, etc.
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Agreed, I don’t see any tinge of racism. It is a question of government infrastructure. Official records in these countries are simply far less reliable and as such are far more likely to be fraudulent. Given the incentive to do so, I think hightened suspicion is warranted.
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Yeah, I guess I didn’t know how to properly phrase it, so maybe its not racism.
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IMO…for sure, the DR, and maybe Cuba…not sure, may have a lot of lax security measures in place to police ID and birther accuracy. The other Latin countires have govt agencies/policies in place that adhere to stricter requirements.
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my guess is these guys get about half the rumored money. If its in the budget id give Soler 6 million.
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Since we dont have a 1st round pick I say we go after Soler because we have the extra money now.
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I’d say throw the money at Soler. A player of his calliber won’t be easy to sign next year under the new CBA, and really, it’s only money. You’re not giving up talent, no draft pick, just money. For an organization that prints a lot of it, it shouldn’t be a huge issue as long as it’s somewhat realistic.
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Does the money go against this years pay roll. For example if we signed Soler to say 5 yrs 10 mill and he plays in the minors for a year or two. Does the money count against the big clubs pay roll when he is in the minors?
I would love if we signed Soler, Cespedes is to expensive of a gamble.
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I think this is the biggest concern. After Hamels and Pence are taken care of, the Phillies will be less than $10M under the luxury tax threshold, and they’ve previously indicated a willingness to not go over that number. I believe that they can spread a signing bonus over the life of the contract. In the case of Cespedes, it will be for however many years he signs for. If a minor league deal is given, I think for luxury tax purposes they can spread the bonus out over 5 years, but I’m not entirely sure. If that is the case, they could sign Soler for something like a $15M bonus, spread over 5 years that would only count $3M toward the Phillies 2012 luxury tax calculations.
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There is little reason to think the phillies won’t spend, they have the second highest payroll in baseball, sold out the entire year last year, and likely will continue to for atleast the next two years. If they believe any international player is worth the money it’s obvious the would sign them. They didn’t send Gillick down there just to create rumors, so as far as I’m concerned Brookover is a moron for essentially making that claim. (A. the phillies are rich in MLB terms, B. the phillies have known the general market price for those players since the beginning of the off season, maybe before then, and C. they sent Gillick anyway)
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Oh and as a follow on, that’s not to say they will sign them, just that they are willing. Gillick’s visit was likely to determine their value, if their value is in line with what it will take to sign them, I have little doubt the phillies pull the trigger.
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The Phillies seem to value these international types like draft picks. To them- if a guy is comparable to a guy in the top 1 to 3 spots in the draft (and a similar age in his development) then he would be worth a 6 to 7 million bonus. However, Soler will get something like 15 to 20 million- which is major league talent money, not amateur money in the Phillies world. As much as I’d like them to sign him, with a maxed payroll it makes sense to think like that.
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I could see the Phils taking a good shot at Soler. I don’t expect that they’ll resign Victorino and if they think this guy is so good to actually be able to play in the big leagues next year, they will definitely take a shot.
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Soler. Make it happen, Rube.
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I am not sure a bonus for a player signed to a minor league contract would count against the luxury tax threshold. It did not use to count and since they are transitioning to a new system this might be the last year for that. Given how close we will be to the luxury tax this year I would think that the luxury tax would be a major factor in whether we compete for these players. Cespedes would require a major league deal but the other two might not.
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Signing Cespedes means Victorino gets dealt…not sure I want that.
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Vic is a FA at the end of the year…there’s no guarantee they’d deal him as they’d be all in for the year with Cespedes in LF.
Either way, there’s maybe 0.1% chance of us signing Cespedes.
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Scout report on the 5’11”, 215 lb Cespedes from Pete Bjarkman:
“Longtime Cuban baseball observer and author Peter Bjarkman points out that in the hitter-friendly Cuban league a .300 average is just that, average, and that Cespedes played in a small home ballpark known to favor sluggers. He also batted third in a loaded lineup with lots of protection. Bjarkman does give Cespedes a strong endorsement, though, even while noting he doesn’t match the hitting skills of other current Cuban stars like Alfredo Despaigne, Frederich Cepeda or Yulieski Gourriel. “Cespedes is a legitimate five-tool prospect,” Bjarkman wrote in his blog, baseballdecuba.com. “Boasting tremendous power, great speed, a quick bat, considerable outfield range and a powerful throwing arm, he is unquestionably a legitimate big league prospect and easily one of the best athletes to come out of Cuba since Kendry Morales and Alexei Ramirez.”
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Vic and Pence are free agents after next year. So bringing in Solar would make sense. Give him a year in ML along with Brown and you have replacements if needed.
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According to Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald, the Marlins’ offer to Yoenis Cespedes was worth less than $40 million. A source told Eric Reynoso of Cafe Fuerte on Saturday that the Marlins made an offer this week of “around $40 million.” IMO, guess that it was probably in the 30s. Cespedes returned to the Dominican Republic on Thursday night after meeting only with the Fish. The Cubs, White Sox, Orioles and Tigers are thought to be interested in the 26-year-old Cuban outfielder as well. Ruben could jump in at this pricing!
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ESPN is reporting that Cespedes has agreed with the Oakland A’s on a 4-year, $36M deal.
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