2012 Reader Top 30, #16

2012 Reader Top 30

It was a runaway at #15, with Lisalberto Bonilla taking 31% of the vote and rounding out the first half of our list. 7 different players got a write-in vote, and I’ll include Aaron Altherr simply because he ranked the highest on the list last year of the guys who got votes. As a reminder on eligibility for the list, to be eligible the player must have fewer than 130 AB or 50 innings pitched. So far we have

01. Trevor May, RHP
02. Jesse Biddle, LHP
03. Sebastian Valle, C
04. Brody Colvin, RHP
05. Freddy Galvis, SS
06. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
07. Jon Pettibone, RHP
08. Justin De Fratus, RHP
09. Maikel Franco, 3B
10. Julio Rodriguez, RHP
11. Tyler Greene, SS
12. Larry Greene Jr, OF
13. Jiwan James, OF
14. Tyson Gillies, OF
15. Lisalberto Bonilla, RHP

Check below for #16

78 thoughts on “2012 Reader Top 30, #16”

  1. Well this should be interesting. Cesar Hernandez gets my click for the time being. A fairly well-rounded second baseman probably deserves to be in the top half of the system.

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  2. Finally went with Roman Quinn. If accounts of his speed are correct, who cares how under developed his bat may be at this point. Imagine a player going 1st to 3rd on a single? We haven’t seen speed like that since Bourne. Reminds of the Reds SS Billy Hamilton. Swiped 103 bases last year.

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    1. There’s an old baseball axiom that says that you can’t steal 1b. Quinn is going to have to be able to get on base enough to take advantage of that speed. Otherwise, he will just be going back to the dugout faster than everyone else.

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    2. I can’t see rating Quinn higher than Hernandez. Cesar is supposedly a good fielder and has shown ability at the plate and on the bases already. The reports on Quinn are intriguing, but they also say he will likely end up at 2B, where Cesar plays.

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      1. I think Quinn’s upside is a lot higher. Hernandez is a guy who, if everything breaks right for him, is a borderline regular for a few years. Quinn could flame out in A ball, but he also could be a star. It’s a long shot, but I dont see Hernandez with that upside.

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    3. I went with Quinn here, too.

      I actually think there are a few ways to steal first base but only if you have game-changing speed, which is what we’ve been told about Quinn. For starters, a SS can’t play deep against Quinn because he’ll beat it out. That means more ground balls will scoot through. Also, he’s only 5’10”, which means he has a small strike zone, and since pitchers often fear a BB against a super-speedster even more than a HR, they tend to throw more strikes and more fastballs in general. That should be worth a few more hits for Quinn, too. And then there’s the drag bunt, pretty much the equivalent of stealing first. Just the threat of it brings the corners in closer, again leading to more ground balls sneaking past.

      Still, he will have to develop a good approach and have the ability to turn around the fastballs he sees. So speed alone doesn’t cut it. I have no real idea if Quinn will be a free swinger or have good contact skills, but elite speed means more ways to reach base.

      Finally, Quinn is a switch hitter, so he may face the starting pitcher a third time rather than a bullpen arm unless his splits are widely divergent.

      I hope scouts aren’t exaggerating about his speed because just being fast isn’t the same thing as having game-changing speed. I’m voting for him here on the idea he has game-changing speed.

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      1. iirc Quinn is a righty who has toyed with switch hitting. I also seem to recall that he gave it up. But maybe I’m thinking of someone else. Reading some reports, though, he seems to have some hitting ability anyway. If he can hit line drives he’ll be fun.

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      2. I was amazed when I looked at the issue a while ago just how much variance there is in IF hits. So yeah I can believe that the ability to leg out IF hits can make a big difference. I was, however, surpised that the correlation between speed and ability to get IF hits wasn’t higher. There are fast guys who don’t have a lot of IF hits, and not so fast guys who do. That said, all else being equal, of course a fast player will get more IF hits.

        The IF hit king among present major leaguers? Ichiro with over 400 in his career. That’s over 1/6 of his hits; without them, he would be roughly a career .270 hitter.

        of course, Ichori is sui generis. Using baseballreference.com’s season finder tool, I looked at short fast guys over the last 40 years or so, and they do seem to have a somewhat above average OBP. OTOH, the search I did selected for guys with longish careers (over 200 SB), and I’m sure that that skewed the results some.

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    1. I’m sorry you don’t like yourself but I agree with your pick of Pointer. Hernandez is getting votes here because many people, like myself, forgot about him. This weekend, when I was putting together my stat sheet for who was left to slot, Hernandez popped up. He’ll be coming up but I like Austin Wright after Pointer. Quinn is also in my next few picks. Like his game changing speed but I hope he can bunt and take a walk until his hitting tool shows up. Have you seen the picture of Quinn? He looks like a 14 year old.

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  6. Took Cesar Hernandez, but was quite tempted to vote for Aaron Altherr. Both players suffered from aggressive promotion last year. Altherr was second on the Cutters in steals, first in home runs and third in isolated slugging.

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    1. I have Altherr soon too, but I am nervous since he performed worse in WPT in 2011 than he did in 2010. As a 20-year-old he posted a league-average OPS.

      Meanwhile, Pointer had an OPS of 856 compared to GCL average of 652. I recognize he was probably on the older side for the league, but I find that performance more encouraging than Altherr’s.

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    1. The Phils made a huge break from past history by paying him a bonus ($759k) 4x what they usually do in Latin America. He had 100 ABs in a winter league that featured some other players in the Phils’ system and he did much better than they did. Baseball America was pretty high on him at the signing. I have him at #15 on my list, but I have Wright at #11 so I’m voting for him.

      Link on Tocci: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/08/phillies-close-to-signing-carlos-tocci-.html
      Tocci in winter league: http://www.ligaparalela.com.ve/HTML/2011/phi.htm#team.mlb

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      2. Yes, that showing is very impressive. It seems like he has very good plate judgment skills and gets hit by a lot of pitches (5 hbp in 98 ABs!) which, as Chase Utley has demonstrated, is both a skill and a curse. Thanks for the info – I may move him up a couple of notches in my rankings.

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      3. The team also featured Villalobos, who highlights an unusual position for the Phils to be in – too many middle infield prospects. Villalobos was a league-average bat in the GCL at a premium fielding position. However he lost playing time to TG. Where will he play now? He is going to be 20 all season. 2B at WPT? LKW? Perhaps he plays SS at WPT while TG is in LKW and Quinn is in GCL? It seems like there is some value there.

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        1. I think Greene might get a shot at Lakewood at SS. I think Walding will probably go to Williamsport and play SS, and Villalobos might play 2B at Williamsport. I think Quinn will play CF, but we’ll see.

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          2. That was Gelb’s article/interview yesterday with Jordan. Sounds like Walding is at 3B and they intend to play Quinn and Greene at SS for now.

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            1. That sounds pretty plausible. Walding is already a big dude. I assume Harold Martinez will play 3B at Lakewood, so Walding might be going to Williamsport.

              I think Spring Training might also indicate where guys go. If someone comes to camp out of shape or not prepared, they might get held in XST, and likewise if someone really stands out he might get a shot at full season ball. We’ll look at this more before ST starts.

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            2. Harold Martinez may need to be double jumped, to get him out of Maikel Franco’s way, at Lakewood.

              Lakewood: 3B Franco, SS Greene
              NYPenn: 3B Walding, SS Quinn

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      4. Tocci, with a .402 OBP, at age 16, in a league with a bunch of 20 year olds, should be getting more support.
        Bonus: He’ll still be 16 during the upcoming GCL season.

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        1. I am still trying to wrap my mind around the fact that this kid is 16. I have two kids who are almost 15 and barely weigh 100 pounds and this kid is getting plunked 5 times in a hundred at bats and turning around 90 mile an hour heaters. Wow.

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  9. I like Austin wright I think his upside is greater than other Austin…just not sure about Quinn and tocci

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  10. Wright again – Rupp is next for me – not much love for the guy right now. If you’re looking for mad power from a catcher, I can see why. However, to me, he profiles as at least a replacement level big league catcher, and looking at his first half/second half splits last year shows vast hitting improvement. Some could be due to pitching promotions out of the league, but as a catcher playing nearly every day, and playing almost twice as much as the year before, (and presumably twice as much as he’s ever played), I wouldn’t expect a post-all star OPS bump of 150+ pts from a guy without talent and potential at the plate. Walk rate is btw 9 and 10, not bad. K rate is high, for sure. A little old for the league, but he is blocked. As a college guy with an August like he had, if Valle wasn’t right ahead of him, Rupp easily could have gotten a promotion to high A mid-season last year. That’s my take, anyway.

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  11. Going with Wright here. Really looking forward to see what he does this season. I think after that I’ll go upside with Quinn and Walding.

    Hernandez needs to have a big rebound year for him to get back on track, his BB/K went from .96 in 2010 to .28 in 2011. He also took a step back once he got on base, as his SB success rate dropped from 84% in 2010 to 68% in 2011. For a guy who has shown no power so far (3 years of ISO’s under .070) he needs to improve in those areas in 2012.

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  13. Castro is still young and will be starting in the Reading OF. Unlike these young kids we know nothing about

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    1. You know, I have discredited Castro because he is not super young and he is terrible at getting on base. However, he showed tremendous power for the FSL last year. He had an ISO of .203. His SLG of .481 was 15th in the league. Not too shabby. He will enjoy Reading!

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      1. He’s an interesting guy to watch, and could hit some HR in Reading, but is he really a prospect at this point? What’s his upside? If you squint you can kind of see him as a bench guy, but not really more than that.

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        1. I would say Castro is prospect, as much or more than these “cup of coffee” middle relievers that get voted onto these lists year after year.

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          1. Well okay, you don’t see me voting for the middle relievers though. 🙂

            I’ll start taking a look at Castro in the mid to late 20s, I suppose; by then we’re going be looking at a bunch of guys who are long shots for any significant major league role.

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  14. Wright, Quinn and Tocci are the next 3 players on my board. Looks Wright is the most likely to be voted to this spot, so I’ll vote Wright this time around.

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  15. Still going with Pointer – my list typically stays somewhat close to the Consensus – but not this year

    – Jeff

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    1. It’s because of his awesome MILB.com photo. Inspiring that a guy so goofy looking, (like me, and I assume the rest of us), might be a successful sports guy.

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      1. He is probably not a bad looking guy, but it is a goofy picture. Kind of like a picture you would take in 8th grade when you are rehearsing for the school play. You gotta love it!

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  18. Quinn here.

    I’m surprised at the lack of argument over this year’s list. It seems like every season there’s a few players–Rizzotti, Overbeck, Derek Mitchell, Galvis, Mathieson–who polarize people and cause a lot of interesting back-and-forth. In some cases (Galvis) the dissenters prove to be right, in others (Mathieson, who I argued for last year) they’re wrong. But this year, seems like there’s wide basic agreement about who belongs in the Top 10, who belongs in the second 10, and so on. I wonder if that’s a product of a growing consensus over how to evaluate prospects, or just the absence of certain troll-like personalities from the conversation.

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    1. Dugan! I was so surprised to see you put him here I had to remind myself how he did – not too shabby as it turns out. He had an above average OPS in WPT as a 20 yr old.

      I have Tocci, Pointer, Altherr, Herlis, Eldemire, and Castro ahead of him. I will spend some more time thinking about him now.

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      1. Eldemire? He’s been MIA for two years. I suppose the same is true for Giles, but at least he had the one good year. Do you have an inside scoop on Eldemire?

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        2. One Bleacher Scout’s Assesment:
          Gauntlett Eldemire is one of the most promising prospects in the Phillies’ system and no one is talking about him. Drafted in 2010 out of Ohio University, the outfielder fell to the Phillies in the sixth round because of a wrist injury, and because that wrist needed surgery after he signed with the club, he missed all of 2011. Eldemire is the type of prospect that a lot of scouts, particularly in the Phillies’ system, can’t wait to see. Now 22-years-old, missing the entire season hurt his progression a lot. However, most people believe that he has the skill-set to overcome those injuries and be successful. An athletic guy with a great build, Eldemire’s bat is his greatest tool. He has the potential to hit for average and his power is above average. His speed tool should give him the ability to stick in center field, although scouts have disagreed about the strength of his arm. All in all, Eldemire has the tools to be a great center field prospect in the near future, should he be able to stay healthy, and power hitting center fielders are a rarity.

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          1. Bleacher “scout?” I mean, bleacher report?

            It seems to me – and I hope I am wrong – that, when you get a college guy who then loses a couple years development time … how often do even the best prospects recover from that?

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        3. Basically what the Bleacher Scout said. Plus he absolutely raked his junior year in the MAC – he hit 398/498/726. Apparently has all the tools.

          The issues are as you mentioned – didn’t play in 2011, wrist injuries are notoriously difficult to come back from, and he will be 23 this year in…WPT? He will be old for his league, most likely. And his previous experience was in the MAC, which is not the most challenging conference. But oh, the tools…

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  20. I went with Quinn and his blazing speed. I have Cesar a few more picks down the list because I didn’t see enough from him last year. I have Walding and Rupp after Quinn.
    Just got back from Phillies Phantasy camp. While there, I had a nice chat with Gillies and Rupp and watched Altherr and Rupp hitting off a tee. Gillies said he feels great and has been running fine. He and Rupp are both so strong and in such good shape but the word I got is that no one can out work Halladay and the young guys have to ring a bell when they quit and its always before Halladay quits which is pretty funny. They’re all good guys and easy to root for. A bunch of guys are actually down there right now for a 5 day mini-camp.

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  21. ANNNNNNND….Austin Wright for like the 4th straight time!

    I still think he’s currently our best LH pitching prospect next to Biddle, and he has the potential to see his stock rise a lot with a strong season.

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  22. It has to be Quinn here and I think he should be 5 spots higher than this. He has amazing speed and power potential. His ceiling essentially is Jimmy Rollins (with a little less power and more speed) that may have to play CF or 2B. I know there are a lot of believers in T. Greene but Quinn is the better infield prospect.

    That being said the system is not as down as it would appear to be. The upper levels aren’t great but in typical Phillies fashion there are a ton of high ceiling athletes which have chances to really breakout this year (sometimes you get Hewitt and other times you get Gose…and then trade him away but that is a different story)

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    1. I don’t disagree with you that the high-ceiling talent is in the low-minors and there’s a lot of guys there that I’m excited about, but the fact remains that every team has a lot of recent draft picks with tons of potential to dream about in rookie ball. The low ranking of our system is based on the fact that there are very few guys on this list who have shown concrete signs of capitalizing on their potential, soon. That said, the function of the Phillies’ minor league system at the present moment is to produce bullpen arms, back-of-rotation starters, and trade chips for deadline deals, and in that regard you have to say it’s performed its function marvelously.

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  24. According to Gelb, Quinn and T. Greene will be playing shortstop in 2012…albeit for different teams. Likely T.G. at Lakewood and Quinn at GCL Clwtr or Wilmsprt NYP Lg. Glad to see that CF is is behind both SS and 2B for Quinn. No reason to rely on TG alone to solve future SS opening.

    For the first time in however long there are promising middle and corner infielders in the system. Only wish they were closer to MLB.

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  25. It looks like there could be 4 guys who will be listed in the 20’s or not even on the list that could play in the Majors at some time this year: Schwim, Savery, Diekman, Overbeck and possibly Hyatt. All of them are being talked about as Roogy, Loogy and possible bench fill-in. That says to me that we have some guys with potential who have much higher ceilings and probabilities than guys who might actually be counted on this year. I looked back over the top 30 lists from prior years and 1 guy actually was slotted in the 20’s and played more than a coffee cup of innings in the Majors that year. Antonio Bastardo in 2009 and I guess Stutes works in here somewhere. He wasn’t even rated in the 2010 top 30 but he played the whole 2011 year in the bigs.

    I’m not saying any of these guys will play any meaningful innings but they may be called upon.

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    1. You said “may be counted on”. It is a big difference between being used as a replacement player, and “being counted on”. The only player in that group that has a chance to be counted on is Savery, and it would take injuries to both Bastardo and Willis at the same time to get to that.

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  26. I voted for Rupp again. I’m hoping that Garner, Claypool, and Manzanillo get on the list. I see Garner as a breakout pitcher this year. He did well at Williamsport. Claypool has been moving up the system well except for a slip at the end of last year. Manzanillo has a plus fast ball and did well in more than a few games last year. He should be in the Clearwater rotation this year, which will provide a lot of quality for the system.

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    2. Garner will definitely make the list, but probably in the 20s.

      I don’t really consider Claypool a prospect, but he did have better strikeout numbers than I remembered.

      I don’t see how Manzanillo moves up to CLW. The rotation almost certainly will start with Colvin, Biddle, and Bonilla. Buchanan finished 2011 at CLW, so I assume he stays. That leaves Claypool, Wright, and Manzanillo from the end of year LKW rotation all competing for one spot at CLW. Claypool and Wright both were better than Manzanillo at LKW last year. It will all be determined in Spring Training, but I have my money on Wright.

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  27. They were high on Walding playing Third Base during Instructional League.That was pretty much all he played in the last week of instructs.Big kid 6’4 & a strong arm.I would say thats a good fit.But playing S.S. is different than Third Base.He also hit the ball pretty well,I expect a high up side for him.My vote is for Walding.

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  28. I went with Cesar Hernandez.
    I just can’t rank draft picks above players who have demonstrated their skills in pro ball.

    Unless a player is a VERY High pick, it’s a huge crap shoot if they will do anything even in the minors.
    Harold Garcia might have gotten the nod over him, but ACL injuries are significant and may not even be 100% this year and he has already been old for his leagues prior to missing last year.

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  29. Tocci reports remind me of M.Caberra which MIGHT be good.
    I am a wishfull voice in the wilderness crying out for Cisco on proximity.

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  30. I’ve always been wary of Hernandez because of his lack of power (ISO .065, after .046 and .067 his previous 2 seasons). Last year at this time I liked his speed numbers, but this past season they were way down too, 12 GDPs (after 1 in his previous 2 seasons combined), 23:10 SB:CS (after 45:11 in his previous 2 seasons combined). For those who point to an improved second half, I’ll point to Hyatt, who improved in after the all star break after being an all star in the first half. I’m sticking with Hyatt.

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  31. Wright for me whats not to like about this kid. Big Body hard throwing lefty. His small sample size periphials are off the charts 1.185 WHIP 11.2 K/9. He may end up being better than Biddle.

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