2012 Reader Top 30, #15

2012 Reader Top 30

We’re almost halfway through the top 30, and things have progressed pretty close to how I assumed they would. Tyson Gillies edged out Lisalberto Bonilla for #14, with Austin Hyatt and Cesar Hernandez getting a fair bit of write-in support, so they will both be added to the voting for #15. As a reminder on eligibility for the list, to be eligible the player must have fewer than 130 AB or 50 innings pitched. So far we have

01. Trevor May, RHP
02. Jesse Biddle, LHP
03. Sebastian Valle, C
04. Brody Colvin, RHP
05. Freddy Galvis, SS
06. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
07. Jon Pettibone, RHP
08. Justin De Fratus, RHP
09. Maikel Franco, 3B
10. Julio Rodriguez, RHP
11. Tyler Greene, SS
12. Larry Greene Jr, OF
13. Jiwan James, OF
14. Tyson Gillies, OF

Check below for #15

86 thoughts on “2012 Reader Top 30, #15”

    1. Ditto and ditto. I like him better than Bonilla at this point due to better performance at the same level. We’ll see if that sample was just a fluke or not.

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      1. Wright certainly looked good in A ball, but he dropped to the 8th round because he got hit around pretty good in college. I know all the stuff about aluminum bats and what have you, but simply put, he was drafted where he was for a reason.

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        1. Not sure if this was it, but he had a year of college eligibility left, correct? Maybe after not signing in 2010 with BOS, and not having an awesome year in college, people thought he might go back, (or they thought he was bad enough that he ought to go back). Either way, the stats look pretty good to me.

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        2. I cannot argue with his stats in the SEC. He definitely was hittable. Why did he perform well in WPT/LKW? Perhaps the SEC is a better hitting league as a whole than the NYPL or the SAL? Maybe he benefitted from playing against weaker end-of-season lineups (best guys get called up at end of season)? I don’t know. But his scouting report is pretty good, which suggests it was not a total fluke. We shall see if he gets exposed in CLW. His peripherals are so good that I cannot resist giving him a high rating.

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          1. Not sure how well the stat translates to college ball, but he had a .354 babip at ole miss, perhaps those stats were the fluke.

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          2. I think the biggest difference is the level of control he showed in the NYPL/SAL. A big improvement over his SEC days and more indicative of his improvement than level/quality of hitters IMO.

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            1. His BB/9 was right in line with what he was doing in the SEC:
              SEC – 3.2 (70.1 IP)
              NYPL – 3.4 (34.2 IP)
              SAL – 2.4 (33.2 IP)

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  3. Hey James, have you completed your top 30 yet? You’ve been very non-judgemental on the community list. I’m sure you have a good laugh now and again about the choices and the comments.

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    1. I have a rough sketch, and I’m still moving everyone around.

      I’m planning on writing up one big post this year instead of breaking things out, just because I have a bunch of other things I want to write about before spring training starts. I’ve remained non-committal because I don’t want to influence anyone’s vote, if anyone looks to me for their opinions.

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  4. A little shocked that Gillies is ranked this high coming off of about 2 dozen ABs in 2+ seasons and a reputation largely built on an above-average season in a notoriously hitter friendly High-A California League. If he stayed healthy in 2012 and had another decent season I could see it but right now after what he’s shown I wouldn’t have him in the Top-20.

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  5. Bonilla, looks like for the final time. Next up will be Quinn. If the Greene’s are in, he shouldn’t be far behind them.

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  6. No respect for Cesar Hernandez – 21 year old that double jumped to the FSL and did OK. His walk rate should improve this year repeating the FSL (he hovered around the 10% BB rate in previous stops) and had almost an .800 OPS in the NYPL. Jiwan James had only a marginally better season at 1 year older and has never put up near a .800 OPS at any level, and he’s at #13 and a guy who hasn’t played and last put up any numbers in a hitters paradise is at #14.

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    1. Well James is apparently a plus defender in CF so Hernandez doesn’t have as much defensive value. Plus James’ scouting reports indicate a higher ceiling and Hernandez had a pretty meh season in an age appropriate league. James was a bit behind the curve because of his pitching days.

      It’s interesting. To me it seems like people either put a lot of stock into him losing development time or none at all. Not much middle ground on James.

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  7. I voted for Cesar Hernandez as well.

    He started very slowly after a double jump but performed very well as the season progressed.
    Some of the national sites have him as a Top 10 Phillies Prospect as well as one of the top 2B prospects in the minors.

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    1. I didn’t know that. Glad to see we have one of those, as we may need him sooner rather than later (I have no faith in the Phillies infield lasting past Rollins contract.)

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        1. That list wasn’t updated. They just removed the non-eligibles and moved up everyone else from last year’s list.

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          1. Wow,

            Since the only name that is the same from 2011 to 2012 is Cesar and the fact they detailed his 2011 season sure makes me believe they updated it :>

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    2. i have Hernandez behind Harold Garcia at 2B even just in the Phillies organization. I’ve seen Garcia mentioned on national prospect lists and not Hernandez (eg, baseballprospectnation). One local list I respect put Garcia ahead (the Reading Eagle). Baseball America listed Garcia as the “best hitter for average” in the Phillies entire minor league system. Hernandez lost his luster last season in Clearwater. Some of the national sites have not incorporated that yet. I still think he is a prospect, but I put him at 21 and Garcia at 14 on the Phillies (Now I’m voting for Hyatt, who I have at 13.)

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      1. Hernandez actually had a GREAT season last year.
        Take April and Early May out after he DOUBLE JUMPED and his numbers are Very good.

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        1. Okay … even excluding April and May, “great” is laughable. “Good” IMO isn’t even accurate, but a case can be made for that – after a lousy start, he had a decent BA but not much else – few BB, no power. His K rate remained high as well.

          As I said elsewhere, I think he belongs in the conversation at this stage of making the list, and his fine 2010 certainly justifies some level of enthusiasm. But he was not very good last year, no matter how you look at it.

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        3. It’s very difficult to get too excited over Hernadez. Good glove, speed and patience but his numbers in the winter league are less then inspiring.

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  8. Hernandez is criminally overlooked in this list. I have him right around the #10 turn (probably about 11). I also happen to have Bonilla there and I have a soft spot for change up pitchers.

    I have to say it’s easy to get caught up with everything going on in the comments, I’ve voted for some players who are now on the list who I have way down. T Greene being the prime example.

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  9. I’ve been a big Gillies fan since we got him, but I wasn’t going to vote for him until the 20s. I know the people who voted for him are counting on a big year. But I mean, we’ve been counting on that year for a while. This is it. He has to pull it together this year.

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  10. I have Wright here, but I put in Altherr as a write-in. Bonilla’s a close second…likely means I will be voting for Wright again next time, then Rupp. I guess I project Wright more easily based on the stats, though scouting makes Bonilla seem like a gem. We shall see as the new year plays out. After Rupp, I think there’s a break point.

    In a couple rounds, Altherr’s probably in consideration, in the group that includes Hyatt and Pointer and Hernandez and Quinn and Lino Martinez, (another guy who probably rates being on the list pretty soon). I would currently have him easily ahead of Schwimer and Savery, and based on lack of data and scouting/analysis, also ahead of Walding.

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  11. Yea, finally get to vote for someone else. Went with Austin Hyatt although can’t say I’m sold on the choice. He put up good number in AA and appears to be the most ML ready prospect (starter) that they have. If he was a year or 2 younger I would be more enthused.

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      1. Says who? I have him with a peak upside of a 4 starter based on having 1 plus pitch, but more likely falling into a swing man role. And if you counter by saying that is Kendrick, well, Kendrick has provided a lot more value to the Phillies than 90% of the people on this list ever will. There something to be said for dreaming on teenagers, but Hyatt has shown he can get people out (including strike people out) at the upper levels, which usually means you can contribute in the bigs.

        I have Bonilla here, but I do think Hyatt is being undersold.

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      2. Hyatt has the best change-up in the organization according to Baseball America. He has always had high strike out rates. Hyatt career minor league K/9, BB/9, K/BB = 2.7, 11.0, 4.12. Kendrick (minors) = 2.6, 5.8, 2.19. That’s about double the Ks and the same number of walks in Hyatt’s favor. I think the strike-outs and the change-up give Hyatt a better upside than Kendrick had as a minor leaguer. ZiPS projects Hyatt with an MLB 84 ERA+, not far behind Kendrick and Blanton tied at 90 and Joel Piniero at 87. One of Hyatt’s comps is Ryan Vogelsong, so Hyatt certainly still has some upside.

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        1. Kendrick was 22 at Reading. Hyatt was 25. Huge difference. Kendrick had thrown 483 innings in the majors by the end of his age 25 season.

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          1. And Kendrick was forced to pitch at 22 due to circumstances, not by earning it. He was in way over his head but got extremely lucky that his first 120 innings or so were ones where the ball bounced his way. The next 350 innings or so weren’t so pretty. Age without context is not very helpful nor is comparing a high school draftee’s s path to the bigs with an over-ager like Hyatt’s.

            Adam Hyatt struck a lot of people out at AA while limiting baserunners. He had a very high HR rate. K rates over 150+ innings are not fluky. HR rates can be.

            If the HR rate was fluky high, than we have a productive major league pitcher. If he continues to give up 1.2 or more HRs per 9 innings, he will only ever be fringe. That right there is the question. You have 1 question (albeit a big one) that determines whether he contributes in the bigs. That to me makes him a good deal better prospect than most people left on this list, for whom questions abound.

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          2. yea but Hyatt actually went to college and graduated with a degree to fall back on unlike the rest of them. he still has moved up to the different levels faster then a lot of others.

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        2. THT’s Oliver projection system, which has tested to be the best system at projecting minor leaguers, has Hyatt delivering a 4.55 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in the majors. That sounds like it’s in line with the scout report. To me, that’s still an organizational soldier, he just happens to be a soldier who could absorb MLB innings.

          His Major League Equivalent from 2011 is a 5.07 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. I use those numbers because Oliver doesn’t have ERA- available.

          Oliver thinks that Hyatt would be very home run prone – 22 HR projected in 143 IP. That’s a MLE line, not a projection for MLB play in 2012.

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          1. There have been good pitcher who give up lots of homeruns (Curt Schilling comes to mind) but I also wonder how much of the HR totals are a result of playing in a good power park. His HR rate in Reading is significantly higher than it was anywhere else. Is it a case of better competition or just a smaller ballpark?

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      3. Really?, First I’ve heard that scouting report.

        Since coming out of college, he’s givien up less than a hit per inning while stiking out more that a batter per inning at every level he’s pitched. He has enough fastball and has a plus change-up according to the recently departed Chuck Lamar. His biggest question is the development of a third pitch.

        Quote from Lamar in 2010:
        “He’s a major-league prospect. He’s got that above-average pitch in that change-up, and his breaking stuff is still a work in progress. He’s going to show a fastball with enough velocity to pitch in the major leagues … and that breaking pitch will determine where in the rotation that he will pitch.”

        Doesn’t sound like a AAAA guy to me.

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        1. A two-pitch pitcher is a reliever in the majors, or a swingman as others have noted. I am not a believer due to his age, reliance on deception, and flyball tendencies. But he could possibly become an above-average reliever if his FB ticks up out of the bullpen. I think I have been underrating him a tad, but I would take Wright, Bonilla, and Garner before him.

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          1. IF he remains a two pitch pitcher then I agree. It becomes a question of how much improvement has/can he make with his slider. I don’t know the answer to that question, but then again, I also don’t know if Wright, Bonilla, or Garner have 3 ML caliber pitches either.

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            1. Those guys don’t have 3 MLB caliber pitches, but they have not been pitching for as long as Hyatt. Wright and Bonilla have age on their side, and Garner has very little experience as a regular starting pitcher. So in my mind they have way more upside than Hyatt. They also all have better fastballs than Hyatt (as I understand it), with Garner having a much better fastball.

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          2. Hamels was a two-pitch pitcher (his curve was average in the minors not considered a plus pitch put he had a decent fastball and a plus curve). Got to the majors worked on the curve and years later developed the cutter. I am in NO WAY saying Hyatt has the upside as Cole but “a two-pitch pitcher is a reliever in the majors, or a swingman” is not accurate at all.

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            1. Hamels didn’t have a developed third pitch as a 22 year old rookie, Hyatt turned 25 last year without a good third pitch. I think the age differential sets those two examples apart in terms of development potential. Very few 25 year old minor league pitchers go on to become starters in the majors, I would guess even fewer do with two pitches.

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            2. Hyatt has no pitch anywhere near Hamels’s changeup. He survived early as a mostly two-pitch pitcher because the second one was dominant.

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            3. I don’t know any good Right-Handed starting pitchers, that have below average fastball, plus change-up as their two pitch repertoire. That works for lefties for awhile, not righties.

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            4. Hyatt doesn’t have a below average fastball based on the scouting reports I read. Said he throws low 90’s and touches 94. That would be about an average ML fastball.

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            5. Hamels is the exception, not the rule. Very rarely do pitchers with two good pitches become major league starters.

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            6. In response to John C.: While age is certainly a paramount factor when evaluating prospects, it is most certainly not the case that “very few” 25 yo minor league pitchers became “good” pitchers. I might agree that very few of them became hall of famers, and I would further agree that it is generally a better sign that a pitcher is in the bigs at a younger age, and it may even be that “most” good pitchers arrive before 25. However, to say “very few” pitchers who debut at or after 25 years of age is not an accurate statement. I would actually posit that it happens “quite often”, but I guess that depends on your perspective.

              In response to Snood: Neither does Trevor May. How helpful is that to this discussion?

              In response to Anonymous VOR: I don’t disagree in the abstract, though I think it remains to be seen how Hyatt’s fastball plays. We’ve certainly heard reports of it being more average than below-average.

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  12. Went Bonillia here Age 21 234 IP 1.134 WHIP 8.7 K/9. I like everything about Wright but only 68 IP between NYPL and Lakewood almost a year older I can’t justify putting him ahead of Bonillia just yet.

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  14. leandro castro next for me. 10 Hrs in pitcher friendly FSL in very few AB’s. If healthy should have a monster year in AA.

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  15. I voted for Wright, but I can certainly see the arguments for several players, including Bonilla, Hernandez, Walding and Quinn. I would probably have Hyatt a little lower, although I do like him a lot. I can’t for the life of me see Savery in the current discussion, just as I couldn’t see Drew Carpenter as part of the conversation a year ago. Savery will probably pitch in the majors, but his stuff just does not get me excited, nor should it. Savery might be in the discussion around 30 or so, but, short of that, he’s not very interesting to me as a prospect.

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  16. Went with Quinn here. Baseball America had him ranked as the #11 prospect in our system in December, based on his Michael Bourn-like speed–ahead of Tyler Greene, who seems to have jumped ahead of him in the collective mind of this community based on 56 at bats in the GCL last year. I’ve always been torn over whether I like Quinn better than Greene, but I definitely don’t feel like he’s more than 5 spots behind him.

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    1. I agree that in terms of talent, Quinn is fine here. I’m just not going to put guys this high if they have yet to play in a US pro league. Tocci may well fit on talent as well, but really not enough to go on. I voted Bonilla again, hopefully for the last time.

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      1. Reasonable enough–but I’d argue that if that’s the rubric Tyler Greene should be much further down the list given his mere 56 ABs in rookie ball. That’s like two weeks of professional experience!

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  17. Matt Gelb just posted an interview with Joe Jordan providing some insight on the most recent draft class. Looks like Mitch Walding will start spring training at third base while Quinn and Greene will stay at shortstop. Gelb also says that the Phils hope that either Quinn or Greene can show enough in spring training to be the starting shortstop at Lakewood with the other player spending time in Williamsport.

    http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/Learning-a-system.html

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    2. Does that pretty much guarantee Walding goes to WPT? It seems pretty early to be giving up on him at SS, no? And I can’t wait to see which SS will go to LWD it should be a good competition

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      1. They can’t all play shortstop. I always thought Walding was projected long term as a third baseman?

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      2. It makes perfect sense that they would move Walding to 3B. From the scouting reports I’ve read, Walding’s bat is the most respected of the three players (Quinn, Greene). He is expected to make more contact than them. Walding also supposedly has a good arm, but funky throwing motion for a SS. It seems very reasonable that they would come to the conclusion that he projects as a 3B.

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        1. Thanks for clearing that up. Im guessing his bat is more polished right? And do you know if he has played 3rd before or if this is new to him

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        2. Clearly you haven’t been reading this website because Tyler Greene is apparently the next coming of Derek Jeter.

          Just kidding. I’m pretty sure that all three are pretty raw at the plate, but Walding’s defense was behind the other two. If one of these guys is at LKW and two are at WPT, we can consider the 2011 draft a strong one. I would have guessed at least one of Quinn and Walding would be at the GCL.

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          1. I don’t think it would be a bad thing if both Walding and Quinn started in the GCL. As long as both guys have good seasons and make it to Lakewood by next year, they will be on pace.

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  18. Went with Pointer here, although it looks like I’m going to voting for him for quite some time. Something about his age and results to this point have me excited about his baseball package. Anxious to see how he does in full-season ball this year.

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    1. I like Pointer but don’t know where to slot him in. There are a number of guys I like more.

      The weird thing about this list is that I like the deep middle layer more then the icing. I think a lot of the guys at the top of the list aren’t nearly as good as they’re currently being hyped.

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      1. I feel the same way about the system, but it makes total sense when you think about the state of the farm right now. If Trevor May is your best prospect, well then you don’t have any fantastic prospects that are can’t-miss guys. But if Lisalberto Bonilla is your 15th best prospect, then there must be a large number of guys with a nice upside.

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  19. Went with Lisalberto Bonilla again. After he is selected I’ll likely go with Cesar Hernandez. The double jump really masked his level of ability, IMO.

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  20. The idea of starting both T.Greene and Quinn at shortstop makes sense to me…with Walding at 3rd . It would be a mistake to put all our “eggs” for SS in one basket. Quinn would start at SS at GCL Clwtr and Greene MAYBE at Lakewood or Wlmsprt. Lakewood would be ideal for Grrene IF he shows merit in spring training.

    For me Quinn here. Glad they are staying with him at SS instead of 2nd base or CF since he could move to either of the other positions if SS doesn’t work out. Love his speed and athleticism.

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    2. I don’t put a lot of stock at all in prospect rankings or system rankings. If Larry Greene and one of Greene, Walding, and Quinn have a breakout year, our system will slide back up into the top 10-15.

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    3. 24/30 is bad, but between the trades and guys coming up to the Phillies this year, it’s understandable. I still think it’s possible that they end up with a respectable ranking next year if 1) some of the recent draft picks step up or 2) most of the baby aces run the gauntlet of Reading unscathed. If J-Rod, for example, can flourish in Reading, I think he becomes gets a lot more respect as a prospect.

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    4. Thanks for posting it. We will likely have some players do better than expected and some players do worse than expected. I think it’s a fair ranking. Every team has high upside guys in low-A, so I do not think we are more likely than other teams to shoot up the chart.

      It is the result of annual trades of our top prospects and not picking high enough to get more of the “sure thing” prospects. Hopefully we have another Singleton in LGJ, another Cosart in Giles, etc. etc.

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    5. I think the proper way to look at this, if you want to be an optimist (and I am, though a cautious one), is to believe that the Phillies’ system has a development advantage over most systems, and therefore to believe that, all else being equal, the system will likely look better a year from now simply for that reason. Add to that the fact that, since the upper ranks of the system are thin, we won’t lose many players graduating to the majors in the short term, whereas other teams will – which will help our relative ranking.

      I don’t buy that our 2011 draft is so good that, for that reason alone, we will take a jump forward this year. It was good, especially from a value perspective, but plenty of teams had good drafts.

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  23. Anticipating that Bonilla would get #15, I voted for Cameron Rupp. I think Rupp is about to have a big year in Clearwater. There will be two catchers that the Phillies can look at. Rupp has his own group of pretty good pitchers to catch and he has done a nice job. I was glad to see his bat come around last season.

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    1. Rupp needs to start hitting some more homers for a guy his size. I think his upside is someone like Todd Pratt

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  24. I have Bonilla here. After that I see Wright, then CHernandez, Quinn,Rupp, and Hyatt to round out the top 20. After that (in no particular order) Buchanan, Altherr, Hudson, Schwimer, Savery, Leandro Castro, JC Ramirez, Pointer, Walding, and Diekman

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  26. Going with A Wright again but have no objection to Bonilla in this slot. C Hernandez and Hyatt under consideration for Top 20 with Walding, Adam Morgan, R Quinn, K Dugan, A Altherr coming up in no particular order

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