2012 Reader Top 30, #6

2012 Reader Top 30

Freddy Galvis won a tightly contested race for the #5 spot, edging out Jon Pettibone and Phillippe Aumont by just a few votes. This will set up an interesting race for #6, as I expect the two pitchers will again split the vote. I’m going to make one change, and that is how players are added to the poll. Mitchell Walding received 0 votes this round, while 3 people wrote in Michael Schwimer and 2 people wrote in Brian Pointer. One of those two will replace Galvis in the poll, the other will replace Walding since he received zero votes. To get a guy on the ballot he has to be written in and receive more votes than someone already on the list. I hope that is clear.

As a reminder on eligibility for the list, to be eligible the player must have fewer than 130 AB or 50 innings pitched. So far we have

01. Trevor May, RHP
02. Jesse Biddle, LHP
03. Sebastian Valle, C
04. Brody Colvin, RHP
05. Freddy Galvis, SS

Check below for #6

104 thoughts on “2012 Reader Top 30, #6”

    1. I have Roman Quinn (and Walding and L. Greene) in the teens, primarily because they didn’t get in any games last year. Personally, I don’t like ranking guys too highly before they have any pro at bats. YMMV

      – Jeff

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    1. Me too. Had Galvis 6 and Pettibone 5, so Pettibone again here. Aumont is in my top 10, but have him down at 9. Franco and JRod at 7 and 8.

      J. James rounds out my top 10 because eventually he has to do something, right?

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      1. James is still a favorite of mine. Let’s not forget he is a top-shelf defender. BA rates him has having the best OF arm and being the best defensive OF in the system. That counts for something!

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        1. I really like JJ as well – but you can’t put him that high if his max ceiling is as a defensive replacement/ 4th OF. He’s got to show something more at the plate and then he’s in that conversation.

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    1. You and your irrational upside. Do you have Derrick Mitchell next?

      Just kidding. I like Pettibone here, but you are making me think more about if I am weighting upside appropriately. I think a guy who is 21 for half the year in AA, with the best control in the system, has to have pretty solid upside though. Thoughts?

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      1. Yeah, but I’d say Pettibone has more of a solid floor than upside. Cost controlled back of the rotation guys are valuable, but a good SS is worth his weight in gold.

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    2. Slim pickins? Can’t understand that conclusion when two of the six prospects most likely to make the majors AS PHILLIES (IAT Brown, of course, sometime this season) are not on the list yet.

      IMO there are six kids slated for key roles in the Phillies future–Valle catching, May & Biddle as SP and Aumont as RP, SS Galvis & 2B Hernandez. Fill out the top ten with Franco, Pettibone, Julio Rodriquez & DeFratus.

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      1. I can’t say I’ve seen anything from Hernandez that has me slotting him into the 2b plans just yet. He’s an intriguing prospects but far from a blue chipper. May and Biddle need to reach higher levels before expanding our expectations. I’d love to see Valle improve at the plate (glad he improved behind it) and Galvis is more likely to be a utility fielder than a starter for the Phillies. Aumont seems likely to have a key bullpen role, as does DeFratus, but the rest of the crew isn’t ready to be mixed in the team’s plans.

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  6. When does spring training begin for tue Phillies and then when do the.minors report. I am headed down FL in march. I know it is off topic but havent seen a general discussion in a couple days. Thanks.

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    2. The minor leaguers usually start around the 2nd week of March with games starting a week later. Two games per day at the complex.

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      1. my mistake, I posted the major league schedule. As Murray stated, minor league camp typically opens around the 2nd week in March.

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        1. Good deal, thanks. Unfortunately i will be there the week before, guess i will have to settle for the Big Show.

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  8. Went Galvis #5, because he is relatively close to contributing and I see enough upside to think he may make himself a net positive on a good team. While I certainly see Aumont and Defratus as nice bullpen pieces, I believe relievers – even pretty good ones – to be a pretty fungible commodity, so long as your GM isn’t giving them 2+ yr contracts for way too much money (that is not an assumption one can make in Philly, but I can’t go rating prospects with Danys Baez in mind).

    So now I’m going all upside. Maikel Franco’s age, early returns with the bat and relatively premium defensive position make me believe he is, at this point, the only truly elite-upside player who we’ve seen enough of to have some confidence in. The Greenes, Walding, Valle (in my mind, I do realize that is not the consensus) and James may change that with a good year this season. And I futher admit, that if we have seen enough of Maikel, as I say above, it is JUST BARELY enough to have JUST A TEENY BIT of confidence.

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  9. Aumont has filthy, disgusting stuff.

    While I value a closer below a team’s top 3 starting pitchers, I can’t help but vote for Aumont’s hammer curve and wicked fastball.

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  10. I voted for Pettibone at 5, so going with him again at 6. I still like Aumont more, but don’t think he has more value as a reliever than Pettibone as a starter, but it’s really close.

    Surprised that Galvis went at 5. To me, he’s probably more in the range of 8-13, but I get it.

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  11. Voted for P-Bone again…Aumont’s ceiling may be an elite closer, but his floor is a guy who never overcomes his control problems. We call those guys Pittsburgh Pirates’ Middle Relievers.

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  13. Maikel Franco has a .647 OPS in two seasons. Granted, he is young and young for his level. But I do not see how those numbers make him a better choice than the guys in the 2011 draft class. He’s shown he can be a below average A hitter at age 18. He may be a prospect, but I’m not convinced he’s a top ten prospect.

    In way of a comparison, Pettibone has improved each season and has decent numbers at A+ age 20. We can presume that he’ll be a starter at Reading this year and will have a chance to prove himself.

    With regard to Franco, if you’re voting results, Pettibone is a better choice. If you’ve voting potential Larry Greene is a far better choice, and Tyler Greene, Mitch Walding and Roman Quinn are all better.

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    1. Um. Franco was the best hitter with the best approach on the Williamsport roster, while being 2 years younger than his teammates and the vast majority of his competition. No, none of the 2011 draftees can say that.

      He is also not some unknown kid who came out of nowhere, but rather, he was one of our (relative) latin bonus babies back in 2010, so just referencing draft status is also not very convincing. I can understand some disagreement, but your blanket statement is just not supportable.

      Pettibone is a fine little prospect, but unless and until he improves his K rates, and until I see more consistent scouting reports (he’s like a lesser dramatic version of JROD in terms of scouting reports), I am not going to get excited. A lot of bad pitchers have had good ERAs at Clearwater. At any rate, with his k rates, I think we’re looking at a swing man / fifth starter at this point.

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      1. He’s a sub-.800 OPS guy in short season A. If he’s in the top ten, the Phils’ farm system is not just hurting for position players, but hurting for everything.

        Before you “um” me again, repeat this: Short. Season. A.

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        1. Will has a point. The NYPL has a lot of college players. Franco was the second youngest player on the team and the youngest position player. Out of 82 qualifiers for league ranking in OPS for the NYPL, he finished 23rd. That’s a fine performance. I would certainly rate that higher than the performance of someone a level below who is basically the same age.

          Plus, a lot of people who saw him play posted positively about his ability. I have a hard time getting more excited about any of the draftees when I look at what Franco has already done.

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        2. Will is exactly right in his summary.
          I don’t get how you discard the best hitter the Phillies have at that level. Especially at that age. We didn’t discount Singleton 2 years ago, when all we had was GCL numbers and scouting reports.
          Whats different now?

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        3. He’s at 10 on the BA and the Sickels lists, and at 6 on fangraphs. Waiting on KGold at BP, but I’d be shocked if he weren’t right there.

          I don’t know if it’s “hurting” for position players or everything or what; but if you say so…

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        4. It bears noting the kind of hitting environment Franco experienced in Williamsport. The entire league slugged .354. Only Aaron Altherr had more than two home runs for the Crosscutters. Franco led the club in doubles, batting average, OBP, slugging percentage.

          BTW, Aaron Altherr is really worth remembering in the 11-20 range. He was still just 20 years old and flashed elite tools in 2011.

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          1. if you dont know the lines at Bowman Field in Williamsport are 350 and center is 410 with a 12 foot fence–not exactly a haven for power hitters

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        5. Give Franco a chance to get the pablum off his face before you look for power. How can you be 18, have a confident power swing and a mature body all at the same time.

          Justin De Fratus gets my vote for now.

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      2. …and lest we forget…Bill Conlin saw him dozens of times and raved rating him the best infield prospect in the system last May.

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        1. At this point, why in God’s name would we ever want to mention that man’s name again? He is dead to me. I don’t care what he says. I don’t ever want to hear from him again and am pleased in knowing that, most likely, I won’t.

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  15. As promising as Aumont is, I can’t bring myself to choose a reliever over a starter. Especially a starter like Pettibone, who looks to be a valuable middle-of-the-rotation starter.

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  16. A real tough call between Pettibone and Aumont.

    Pettibone maxes out, to me, as a mid rotation starter but probably slots at the back of a rotation considering his K rate, but his control is fantastic and is still a little young for his level.

    Aumont’s K rate is bananas but his walk rate is troublesome, especially for a reliever. Plus, as a reliever, his value decreases considering the number of innings he can give you in a year.

    My tie-breaker is proximity to the major leagues, so I go Aumont.

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  17. I went Justin here only because I feel he is closer. I can’t or won’t argue Aumont has better stuff just he needs more work on his command, more seasoning.

    Can’t buy into Pettibone this high tho his 1.137 WHIP last year was outstanding. Only knock for me is I would like to see his K/9 a little higher.

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    1. I actually took Pettibone again but I have Aumont and DeFratus as my next two. I had Galvis after them. The reason Aumont should be ranked ahead of DeFratus is the future potential of each. DeFratus is really good and has a great future but Aumont has the potnetial to be special if he can improve his control just a little bit more. His sinking fastball is unhittable and his 12/6 curveball sends guys muttering back to the bench. For all the pitchers, its about control and consistency. Pettibone has shown that he’s the farthest ahead in this category. Also, I wouldn’t be so quick to write off his pure ability since he’s improved so much the last two years.

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  19. Pettibone’s K rate could be better but it’s not exactly terrible. It also increased as he moved from Lakewood to Clearwater. Taken with his overall control, the small number of home runs he surrenders, and reports of increasing velocity and he profiles as a very solid starting pitcher.

    It’s why I took him at #5 and take him again.

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  20. I saw Franco play this year in Lakewood. It was the game he hit a laser home run. He also picked it nicely at 3rd. He looked really good in that game. But it was an aberration as he couldn’t keep it up and was moved down. I like his upside, but he is a long way away.

    Aumont will be in Philly this year with nasty stuff. He has the potential to be a dominant closer in the bigs, which is much more valuable than a #5 starter based on market pricing.

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  21. Pettibone again. I think Aumont next, then Maikel Franco and DeFratus. This is our weakest top 10 in a while.

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      1. Agree, it might be more difficult to rank because the talent is at low levels but it’s certainly not any weaker that was 2008 that included Adrian Cardenas as #1 as Savery #4, Marson #5, and Donald #6. Drew Naylor, Drew Carpenter, and Brad Harman were also in the top 10.

        Only difference in 2008 was that most of those guys were at AA level or higher.

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        1. Well we got Cliff Lee with Carrasco, Marson, Donald and Knapp (a draftee from 2008). That would be similar to May, Valle, Galvis and maybe Walding or Roman Quinn being traded in July for one of the best pitchers.
          I’d say the latter package, is just as good as the package for Lee. So I don’t think this years’ top 10 is any worse than that top 10.

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    2. …bewteen 16 and 30…put all remaining prospects in a hat and just count down and draw them out one- by- one.

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    3. …May, Biddle, Valle, Colvin, Galvis, Pettibone, Aumont, Franco, Rodriguez, JJames, DeFratus, TGreene, LGreene, Quinn, LMatinez, LBonnilla, CHernandez, CRupp, Altherr, Walding, Tocci, Ramirez, Pointer, Hyatt, HMartinez, A Wright, A Morgan, Buchanan, Schwimer, Diekman.

      That’s 30, and I didn’t even mention Collier, P Garner, Castro, Dugan, Alvarez, Rizzotti or Overbeck. It won’t be hard to get to 30.

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    1. We’ve done that in the past but like Presidential primaries, when one guys drops out (or is picked for a top 30 slot), his votes may go to someone entirely different. For example, I’ve been voting for Pettibone for the last two slots. If he wins the slot, I’m not going to vote for Aumont. I like DeFratus a tiny bit more. I also think DeFratus ( I almost wrote his name as DeFreakus.. Now there’s a nickname) will be in the Major Leagues earlier this year than Aumont and I’m not sure if Aumont will be brought up until September when roster’s expand. Maybe there a bunch of others like me (although my wife tells me there is no way there’s anyone like me… not in a good way). Of course, if Aumont wins the slot, I’ll be voting for Jon once again.

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      1. I went from voting Galvis to voting Franco, so it will be a while before I pick a favorite again. I have both Justin DeFratus and Julio Rodriguez above both Pettibone and Aumont.

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  24. Tyler Greene – 5 tools, premium position, huge upside, position players more valuable than pitchers

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      1. Ive, you and Clearwater must be related to each other and I know your related to Tyler Greene.Neither of you ever post about anything but Tyler.And when your not promoting him your putting down everyone else.I think Tyler will do fine without you trying to put him on a pedestal that he will have to live up to.Your clearly not fooling anyone.

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  26. Just wanted to ask some of you guys about when you stop looking at results and look more towards potential? I really like what they did in the last draft but am finding it hard to rate them “top 10” because all we have right now are scouting reports and speculation. So I was just wondering when it comes to these guys, especially the ones who haven’t really been on the field yet, at what point does the potential of a prospect outweigh the results of one? An example would be JRod a guy who reports say doesn’t have the “stuff” but continues to have the results. Is it purely based on scouting reports? This is a serious question, now that we’re getting down into the range where the Greene’s, Quinn, Walding, etc. will start to get serious consideration I’m curious as to how people evaluate what we have. Thanks in advance.

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    1. You’ve asked the correct question. I have a lot of trouble trying to slot a guy like Larry Greene, who has no professional track record. He’s a big guy with possibly Ryan Howard type power tool but could he end up like Hewitt? A guy like Tyler Greene has some professional ABs and he didn’t disappoint. If you could look down the road and find Larry is a good OF’er with power that allows him to hit any ball out of any park on a check swing, then he’s my #1. He’d be better than May. I’d be all in but I have to see something first. So he’ll fall into the middle of my top 30. Somewhere around #15, I’ll be stacking the guys left against each other and potential will become my strongest component. An example might be someone like Overbeck against several of our draft choices (even guys a little further down the draft ladder). Overbeck has a far better chance of playing in the show then the draft picks purely based on proximity but the picks have far more potential to be stars in the bigs then Cody. I’ll take that potential and rate them higher. This is just one guy’s take.

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      1. On a related note, I am guessing here that one of the reasons the Phillies agreed to trade Singleton is that they view Larry Greene as being as good or better of a prospect and as having a time horizon better fits with the downside years of Ryan Howard’s career. Just a thought.

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          1. ….not sure if Larry Greene will ever see the OF as a MLB player in 3/4 years. He may get stronger and bigger then his current 230lbs or so, and more then likely slower. Haven’t seen many players get smaller as they get out of their teens.

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            1. I think G$ meant they traded Singleton because they needed Pence last year not because they thought Greene would be the outfielder of the future.

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        2. highly doubt that had anything to do with it. Singleton got moved because he was the most valuable prospect in the system.

          Will Lingo said in his chat he has Singleton as the #1 first base prospect in baseball ahead of Yonder Alonso and Anthony Rizzo.

          Green is a 18 year old kid whose never seen a professional pitch.

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        3. You got THAT right! The timing fits well; Howard’s contract will be on the endgame side when L. Greene SHOULD be ready to take the king.

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      2. I would posit that being drafted high and getting a big bonus is certainly more valuable than seeing a guy hit 80 times in the Gulf League. That’s just another data point and it should absolutely matter.

        I would also note that just as sample size matters in the positive, it also matters in the negative. Some of the players being discussed have had a bunch of playing time to show us what they can’t do. The newbie draftees, on the other hand, are still shiny new christmas presents.

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        1. That part I get, the new draftee’s haven’t really shown their deficiencies and therefore are all upside at this time. I guess the intense debate about the merits of guys like Galvis especially have me wondering about this. Here you have a 22 year old kid who was pushed through the system because of his glove and MAYBE his bat has finally caught up and a lot of people are writing him off. I suppose the way I look at it is, no prospect is a slam dunk and if I see results (Galvis, JRod, Pettibone, etc.) I’ll take that anyday over “tools” without any success to back it up. That being said, this is probably the most excited I’ve been about a MiLB season in a long time, can’t wait to see what these kids can do, and in turn, make the tops 10 a lot better looking next year.

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  27. Funny, looking back, some of the other top 10’s were weaker than we thought. Also, while the top 10 is not loaded with studs, we do have a handful of guys who could make a big jump – Bonilla, Greene, Greene Jr, Frainko and such. Should be fun to watch.

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  29. spanish nick punto is the phils 5th best prospect? I find that hard to believe.

    Or maybe I just don’t want to believe their system has become that poor.

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  30. I don’t understand how and why he got here and why he stayed. I don’t understand why the Japanese are interested in Bowker. However marginal they trashed a young player for him. Make you wonder who they owed a favor.

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  31. Savery with 4 votes? Interesting. I’d actually vote for Mitchell here over Savery (this is not a write-in request for Mitchell)

    Going Pettibone here. Considering De Fratus, Aumont, Franco and LGJ. Colvin just outside the Top 10, and trending downward. I have little confidence in Colvin, though this is one instance where I wouldn’t mind being wrong

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  32. I wish the Tyler Greene fans would at least act like they are not related.Not one post from IRV or Clearwater has anything to say but Tyler,Tyler,Tyler.If they aren’t promoting Tyler they are putting down everone else.Lets get real they aren’t fooling anyone.Good luck to Tyler despite his family.

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    1. What a joke.. and you Sir are a JERK. I am a Baseball Fan and love going to the Phillies workouts and games. Maybe you need to go watch him play. The you won’t be so jealous and understand! He can flat out play!!

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      1. Yes he can play but not near the level you claim.He’s a (GOOD SHORTSTOP) not a great one.And yes I have seen him play.But of all the players new or in the system you just seem to focus on him.That tells me a lot.Sorry if I hit a nerve.

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  33. Clwtr Res: We ALL hope you are 100% correct. Of the draftees of ’11 he is ONE of several who could become stars…because IMO this was their best draft…ever.

    Think about the perceptions of the other teams’ scouts…compared to the Phils’ scouts who were able to find out that he would be willing to ditch college and sign, albeit for a pretty high price considering his position in that draft. Because–as is now obvious–the Phils REALLY must have probed deeply, liked him and were willing to spend. Advantage Phillies.

    And we can suspect that had a lesser organization tried to sign him (i.e., with a lesser reputation), he would have tried college. That’s my opinion. It is also one of the big reasons why superior better players like to come to Philly.

    It would be interesting to see if he might rise through the system quickly since the stated talents seem capable of work ethic/maturation aided by his his quick signing allowing him already to play a good number of pro games.

    I–for one–have great expectations for the guy. Give him 4 more seasons to MLB..I hope.

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  35. Not really relevant to this blog post, but the reds signed madson so we’ll be moving ahead of them to get the 14th pick in the draft pretty sweet.

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    1. Should be a comp pick around 35 and then a pick slotted before the Reds 2nd round pick around 72 or a couple of picks later. The top half/bottom half rules from the old type A compensation still apply unfortunately since the Reds finished in the bottom half of the standings.

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  37. When it come down to all things being equal,investment money will say a lot. Larry Greene $1,000,000.00, Walding $800.000.00 Quinn $775,000.00 & Tyler Greene $375,000.00.You tell me who will get the extra looks.

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  38. Sooooooo….can we just say Aumont #6 and Pettibone #7 (or Pettibone then Aumont depending on how the voting turns out).

    I went Aumont. Not thrilled with Pettibone’s k/9.

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  41. Would be really cool if we get the #14 fingers crossed. Will be interesting to see how much of the $4 Mil cap that pick gets (of course if thats what it turns out to be)

    I just want to put it out there that there is no right or wrong in your top 10. Stutes wasn’t in the top 20 readers picks last year and he wound up making a nice contribution with the big club. It’s not static they will all move up or down.

    You’re all looking for that “a ha I told you so” moment. I get it. Thats what makes it fun.

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  42. I don’t know if anyone has posted the following list which I received from a guy who follows prospects :

    Phillies Top-15 Prospects of 2012

    1. Trevor May | RHP | Age – 21 | Grade – B

    2. Jesse Biddle | LHP | Age – 20 | Grade – B

    3. Phillippe Aumont | RHP | Age – 23 | Grade – B/B-

    4. Maikel Franco | 3b | Age – 19 | Grade – B-

    5. Justin De Fratus | RHP | Age – 24 | Grade – B-

    6. Sebastian Valle | C | Age – 21 | Grade – C+

    7. Larry Greene | LF/1b | Age – 19 | Grade – C+

    8. Freddy Galvis | SS | Age – 22 | Grade – C+

    9. Austin Wright | LHP | Age – 22 | Grade – C+

    10. Jon Pettibone | RHP | Age – 21 | Grade – C+

    11. Brody Colvin | RHP | Age – 21 | Grade – C+

    12. Lisalberto Bonilla | RHP | Age – 21 | Grade – C+

    13. Jiwan James | CF | Age – 23 | Grade – C+

    14. Tyler Greene | SS | Age – 19 | Grade – C+

    15. Adam Morgan | LHP | Age – 22 | Grade – C+

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