2012 Reader Top 30, #5

2012 Reader Top 30

Brody Colvin comfortably took spot #4 on the list, cruising past Freddy Galvis, Phillippe Aumont and Jon Pettibone. With those three tightly bunched, the voting for #5 should be interesting. Joe Savery somehow received the most write-in support, so he’ll be added to the list for #5 in place of Colvin. As a reminder on eligibility for the list, to be eligible the player must have fewer than 130 AB or 50 innings pitched. So far we have

01. Trevor May, RHP
02. Jesse Biddle, LHP
03. Sebastian Valle, C
04. Brody Colvin, RHP

Check below for #5

97 thoughts on “2012 Reader Top 30, #5”

  2. I like Aumont better than Pettibone as a pitcher (by quite a bit, actually), but Pettibone is solid and projects as a potential mid-rotation starter and Aumont is a reliever and, thus, inherently less valuable. So I went with Pettibone.

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    1. I’d rather have a dynamite, lockdown reliever than a good 4th starter, which is what I think their respective ceilings are. So I went with Aumont.

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      1. Actually, I don’t think the Phillies are saying anything but, secretly, I think they hope they can work Aumont back into a starting role. Not now, not next year, but over time. In a perfect world, Phillippe would become the next guy to follow Roy Halladay around the Carpenter complex and learn a thing or two. Aumont is a potential beast, so I understand your ranking – it’s a close call for me.

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        1. It’s an interesting thought. I would be surprised if they eventually tried to move him back into the rotation but his talent and physical attributes definitely make it tempting. I agree that this one is a close call. Both guys still have things to prove- if Pettibone were more of a “sure thing” I might have given him the edge.

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    2. I think there are a few guys with at least approximately equal, if not higher, ceilings than Tyler Greene. I think Larry Greene, Franco, Pointer, James, Gillies, Giles, Altherr, Shull, and Eldemire are all guys with such ceilings. However, reaching that ceiling is very unlikely, and if you think Tyler has a better chance of doing so than the others, then I can’t argue with you.

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      1. They all have a similar chance of getting there, Tyler Greene included. What sets him apart for me is the position he plays.

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        1. They all have lots of tools, some with “special” tools (e.g. LG’s power). Some of them profile as above-average CFs as well, which is a very important defensive position.

          Personally, the scouting reports I read on TG were good but not great and inconsistent at the HS level. I don’t see a reason to rank him higher than others based on tools. Him being a SS does give him a bump, though. I can agree with that.

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    3. Just a comparison.

      Tyler Greene. : GCL, age 18, OPS .765, ISO .103, BB% 15.7, K% 32.9

      Maikel Franco: NYPL, age 18, OPS .778, ISO .124, BB% 10.9, K% 13.1

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      2. Franco has played three years of Pro Ball. T Greene sat home for two Months after his HS Season . then signed early and had a three hit game with a double the first GCL game.

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        1. Exactly. Franco has better numbers, playing against college juniors and 3 year pros than Tyler Greene has, playing against HS kids. And yet some have Greene ahead of Franco, as a prospect.

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          1. Saw them both on the field at Fall Instructs. Tyler Greene can do it all.. Franco is all bat.

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            1. Well we’ll see soon. They will both probably be playing at Lakewood. If Tyler Greene and Franco’s numbers stay exactly the same, I will concede that Tyler Greene is the better prospect, because he is a SS.
              But I can’t say that now, because the GCL is not close to the NYPL and Greene doesn’t have a 1st round pedigree to mitigate that.

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  4. Also taking Pettibone. If the reports on his improved velocity are accurate, he would seem to have all the makings of a quality back of the rotation starter. He is also the best “Worley” candidate for 2012.

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    1. Worley candidate as in more like Kendrick or did you mean just from a suprise perspective? (I can’t see pettibone putting up a 2.8 era over a near full season between his first and second year)…

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      2. Worley candidate in that he is the most likely to be called up as an injury replacement and have some level of success. And I really expect Worley’s numbers to fall back towards an ERA of around 4.

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  5. Bonilla Wright Pointer Altherr James Gillies Hyatt Quinn. Can’t believe we’re adding Savery right now. No offense to those who like him. Just hard to call him legit based on a couple nice months in the AA/AAA pen and aiming at a LOOGY type career.

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    1. I agree. I remember a time not so long ago on this site, when relievers used to get ranked appropriately in the teens and twenties. A guy who pitches an inning every other day, shouldn’t be ranked ahead of a player who has a chance to become a player who sees the field everyday. Not to even mention a situation lefty. If Savery gets ranked in the top 10, proof of the further eroding of the Phillies fanbase.

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      1. I know the sentiment and I have the relievers in the 7-11 range (aumont and jdef) I also think that’s becuase we don’t have a particularly strong system. Take away the recent trades and that bumps those guys down to the teens. That said, there is also something to say about rarity of position, who is easier to find, a sucessful setup man/closer or a back of the rotation starter?

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        1. supra…you make a very good point on the ‘rarity of position’ logic. Some on here apparently do not buy into that reasoning.

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    2. It really depends on what criteria you use to rate prospects. If you rate prospects by the value that they will provide the Phils, Savery is going to provide value this year (most likely), while a lot of the single-A guys will never reach AAA at best. Proximity to majors makes prospects more valuable, all else equal.

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      1. Can’t agree more. I’ve tried not to be too critical of RAJ’s moves thus far (though I hate the Pence trade) but this shows where we are as a system. Just about all of our promising prospects haven’t been above A ball yet and as such are all projeciton. It depends on how you want to judge these players: on potential, on production, or on proximity. The system itself is in a sad state when people are rating players in the top 10 who haven’t even seen low A yet.

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    1. Let’s hope not. Let’s hope the injuires aren’t that bad this year. They would only call him up if JRoll went down with a long term injury that they didn’t want to just go with Valdez while calling up Mini Mart to sit on the bench.

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      1. Still think they may have to shift Rollins to third at some point because I don’t think Polance will hold up. Are there any other legit options outside of RETREAD CITY?

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        1. Angel’s Mark Trumbo could be available…but never played it in minors, so can he really play 3rd?

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  7. Thought Pettibone was better than Colvin so I will go with him here again.

    Shouldn’t Jiwan James be creeping onto the ballot soon, he should be around 10 to low teens and ahead of people such as Savery

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    2. I like James a lot too, more than most, but I would almost put Gillies ahead of him at this point. At least Gillies has had some success at the plate (although it was a long time ago). James continues to be mediocre with the stick. Plus, Gillies is only 6 months older. It will be interesting to see where Gillies ends up playing if he is healthy.

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      1. I definitely put Gillies ahead of James. He’s as at least as good defensively with range and an arm, is a better base stealer, and has been a better hitter.

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  8. I voted for Pettibone. my next 5 slots are pitchers. I’ll move to the high upside relievers like Aumont and DeFratus and then come back to Julio Rodriguez and Lisalberto Bonilla.

    In forward looking mode, I was looking at the 2011 batting stats and filtered out everyone who was older than 22 and had not played state-side. Then I looked at the best OPS for this group.
    – Brian Pointer (19 in GCL) led the group with a .856 OPS. OBP was .353 and had a K per game.
    – Carlos Valenzuela (20 in GCL) was next with a .817 OPS, .379 OBP, less Ks but less BBs than
    Pointer.
    – Leandro Castro was #3 (22 in CLW). He was hurt a portion of the year but was still productive.
    His weakness is lack of BBs.
    – Bill Rice and Kelly Dugan came next. Rice will not be in our top 30 because he’s a 22 year old
    who did most of his damage in the GCL but he did finish the year at LWD. Dugan’s a former
    bonus baby and he’ll have to go somewhere in our top 20. I haven’t heard many people
    mentioning him lately.
    – Cameron Rupp was next. He had a .720 OPS, .346 OBP. He K’s a lot but the best thing about him is he’s a big catcher. He’ll get some votes between the 10 and 20 slots.

    Galvis, Valle and Franco are a little further down the list and they are already off the board or are getting significant votes. There seems to be some discussion on Tocci. If you want to start lobbying for someone from South America, how about Herlis Rodriguez? He turned 17 last year and he was hitting the cover off the ball for quite a while. He tapered off near the end of the season but he was an exciting guy to watch in the box scores.

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    1. When I made out my batting stat list, I used a minimum of 100 plate appearances as one of the criteria. I changed that to 69 or less. I was trying to see where Tyler Green would show up. Ty ended up just below Leandro Castro and above Rice and Dugan. Greene’s sample size is very small but it will sure move him up on my list. He’ll end up in the upper end of the 10 – 20 slots.

      The farm system has been depleted by trades but we have a lot of intriguing guys. I’ve got 15 to 20 guys that I want to slot in the 10 – 20 range. These guys are far less likely to play in the big leagues but they have potential to be very good Major Leaguers some day. I like having guys like this because if 1 or 2 make an impact, it can be very eventful for the big club. Worley falls into that category. Early in his career, we didn’t see his potential but all of a sudden he blossomed. I don’t think he’ll ever be more than a 4th or 5th starter but you have to pitch a guy every 4th and 5th game. You need him. Could Austin Hyatt be that guy this year? I haven’t figured out where to slot him yet. Some people have him penciled in as ROOGY this year. Maybe he’s the 7th starter or long man in the pen? Proximity puts him on the list and he has some upside.

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  9. I like Franco here, but since he probably can’t win this round, I’ll take Pettibone over Galvis.

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  10. Franco here, based on ceiling/upside potential. I just can’t put a potential reliever, utility infielder or mid-to-back-end starter this high.

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  11. They addressed this somewhat in the most recent draft, but man, we need some blue chip position prospects pretty badly.

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    1. We do, they just play for other teams now. D’arnaud Gose Singleton Villar Taylor and Santana would all probably be in our top 10.

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  12. I have Galvis at #3 and hence will keep voting for him. Pettibone is #5 on my personal list, well ahead of Colvin. I have Franco #6 and would not argue with him here.

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      1. Same here. Galvis at 3 and still voting for him. My vote is based on belief he is 1) still going to play great d at premium postion 2) still has plenty of potential with the bat that will be realized 3) will develop into an everyday player 4) proximity to the majors. I personally feel last year was a turning the corner as apposed to flash in the pan but i can see an argument against.

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        1. Great points all. Also, he was the Phillies Paul Owens Award winner as the best player in the Phillies organization. Hitters, unlike pitchers, tend to improve until their late 20s. Also, young hitters are less injury prone and more predictable than young pitchers. All reasons I rank Galvis and Valle #2/#3.

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  13. Yippee! Finally a real contest. A pitcher with starting potential, a relief pitcher knocking on the door and a position player with some potential, close to ready. How much better can you get for provoking decent discussion?

    Based on current need, I went with the position player. If Jimmy and Valdez each get banged up and one goes on DL, Freddie will appear. He’ll definitely get (as will Aumont) some pt in September.

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  15. I’m taking Galvis. He made great strides with the bat last year and plays a premium position. I still don’t see him logging time at CBP with Jimmy’s new deal but he could be a good piece in a summer deal.

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  16. Pettibone again for me. He looks like a legit future major league starter although it wouldn’t surprise me if its for another team after a trade.

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  17. I voted Pettibone again. Just can’t see Galvis this high. I’ve watched him two years in Reading and just don’t see him becoming a better than average major league SS. I thought his D was better in 2010 than in 2011. The 2011 offense was a big step forward, but not yet good enough. He is young, but he also was repeating the league. I think he can be a major league starting SS, but in the bottom third.

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  18. I voted for Galvis. Not thrilled with him at #5, but everyone else has either warts or inexperience.

    This really is a tough group. It’s one thing to rank a guy like Tyler Greene, All potential and tools but yet to accumulate playing time. But we’ve got 4-5+ guys like that to evaluate. Both Greenes, Walding, Quinn, etc. You can’t do it by the stats, which makes it incredibly subjective.

    One more note. I hope Jack & Jill is not indicative of the overall quality of the Dugan bloodline.

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  19. Galvis here and while I like Franco and have him in my top 10 he did struggle mightly after his call up to Lakewood. This time last year I had no love for Galvis and then I seen him play an entire season in Trenton before his call up to Lehigh.

    I’m convinced he can play at the next level. To what degree remains to be seen.

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  21. I went Aumont. While Galvis’s improvement is nice, seems like a utility player. Closer>Utility.
    Anyone think we have a shot at signing Soler or Cespedes the Cuban outfielders? Gillick saw both of them, so I would think that means the are very interested. My guess is Soler, only 19, would already be on the top 10 list for us.

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    1. Excellent question, do we rank Soler in the top 10 if the phillies sign him, I’d say yes, I’d put him around 6 even without a year in the states. Given he would have been a top 5 pick in the draft, and the weak state of our system I really don’t think that’s a stretch..Just so we’re on the record here, I think the odds the phillies sign him are probably 20 to 1….

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      1. I am counting on Gillick pressuring the owners into signing one of them. I think odds are slightly better. When I say already in top 10, I would have voted for either of them before pick 5.

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        1. Soler will not cost that much……fellow Cuban Cespedes, however is demanding that amount per annum with a 5/6 year contract length.

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          1. Guess again. Scouts have been saying Solar will easily eclipse $20 mil. That’s a lot to invest in an unknown quantity that will still take a few years to develop.

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  22. Damn this is really close, Glavis is going to be the one prospect who I significantly disagree with based on the current state of voting, I chose Aumont here more because he has the best chance to win between him and Glavis. I have Glavis at 9, and Aumont at 8.

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      1. Supra always calls Galvis “Glavis”. I keep thinking he’s going to write Gladys Kravitz. (From Bewitched, man).

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      2. Sooner or later I’m gonna get it right, though at this point I’m not sure what the point is, I’ve screwed it up for like 4 years now. Lol

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  24. Just to be clear I don’t regret most of the trades made as most needed to be done but…
    to the guys knowledgable of other systems, would there be a stronger top 20 in all of baseball or am I being a homer?
    1)D’arnaud
    2)singleton
    3)Gose
    4)May
    5)cosart
    6)santana
    7)biddle
    8)valle
    9)colvin
    10)villar
    11)m. Taylor
    12)galvis
    13)pettibone
    14)Aumont
    15)defratus
    16)t. green
    17) franco
    18)L.Bonilla
    19)L.Greene
    20)quinn

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      1. Me anonymous is actually me anonymous? That’s a nice looking list, though I’d still rather have Halladay and Pence. And Oswalt was fantastic for us down the stretch in 2010

        Going Galvis here at #5. Pettibone looking good for #6. De Fratus, Aumont and LGJ (and Colvin) in consideration

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      2. Yeah probably 5 top 100 prospects… Not to mention that in your scenario the team would not be a contender and would have been able to sell off assets for even more prospects. Not sure if would be the best though.

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          1. Not quite, they already started selling off prospects in 08. They gave away a nice haul at the time for Blanton.

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          2. If the Phillies didn’t make any of those trades, they would have gotten eliminated by the Rockies and would have failed to reach the post season over the last two seasons.

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    2. Diamondbacks have a pretty strong system. 3 possible aces in Bauer, Bradley and Skaggs.
      Royals probably one of the best with Montgomery, Myers, Starling, Odorizzi and they just graduated Hosmer and Moustakas.

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      1. D’backs and Padres are probably the strongest systems right now. Royals are still good but took a step back due to graduating two of their elite players.

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        1. The Braves are up there too, although their system is probably going to take a hit since their young pitchers are going to graduate sometime in 2012.

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  25. Aumont is going to be an elite closer, he gets the nod in a close one over Pettibone.

    I have Galvis 10th, just behind Austin Wright. That’s the highest I could justify ranking Galvis considering I still project him as a borderline everyday major league shortstop. I just don’t see him saving as many runs on defense as he costs at the plate but as others have noted, if he continues to improve his hitting and BB rate by leaps and bounds, his value would be high since he plays plus defense at a premium position. For now time is on his side but he has a long way to go.

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  26. I voted for Pettibone for all the reasons I gave last time. For Galvis to be this high the Phillies farm system is not heavy on talent. I think of Galvis as I do Harold Garcia and Garcia hits much better than Galvis ever has. They are both good utility players with Galvis glove being very helpful for his future. Please add Garcia and James.

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  27. I voted for Aumont all the way back at 3 and he lost, so i’m going to pick him again here. Nearly went with Pettibone, but Aumont is closer to the Majors and has a better chance of being Elite at his position (Reliever/Closer/Set-up Man whatever) than Pettibone does at his. Freddy Galvis still looks like a Utility man at best to me, and that type of guy has no business in a prospect top 5 in my opinion. Sure it’s possible his bat develops well enough to be a starting shortstop for a second rate team, but that’s still not worth getting excited about in the least.

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  28. Went with Aumont here. I see him as a set-up man in Philly starting in 2013 and after Papelbon’s contract is up you will see him take over. I think Jiwan James should be added to the list next round.

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  29. Sort of playing devil’s advocate here, but it wasn’t so long ago that Jason Donald, a utility infielder, was one of our top 3 prospects. That’s what happens when you use your system to stack the big league club. I still think the upside arms push Galvis closer to Top 10 than Top 5.

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  31. Honestly, I don’t even have Galvis in my TOP TEN prospects because of his seemingly low ceiling as a player, and honestly I find a Utility man to be even less exciting than a #5 starter, Non-Closer reliever, or even a Backup Catcher. Utility men are a dime a dozen and near worthless in a trade, unless they are one of the very few who could qualify as a Super-sub…and Galvis doesn’t profile as that in my mind. He’ll be lucky to have the career of a Wilson Valdez, let alone a Jimmy Rollins or Jose Reyes.

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    2. Amazes me the people who have already closed the door on Galvis’ potential. Let’s not forget that Mayberry Jr. was AAAA / 5th OF guy at this point last year and now people are drooling over him calling him the next Jayson Werth. As stated Galvis is still very young for his age and has time to develop. Not all prospects come up when they’re 19-20. We of all people should know that having seen some of our best players come up when they were 24-25.

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      2. The big difference is that everyone always knew that Mayberry had a lot of potential. It’s just that he got to the age where most thought that his development had peaked and that he was a lost cause as a prospect. Obviously that was not the case. But you seem to be confusing potential with likelihood of reaching the potential.

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      3. Anybody who is calling him the next Jayson Werth are really uneducated. Jayson Werth was already a budding star with the Dodgers before he got hurt. The only reason he developed late was because of injury.

        John Mayberry’s more than likely a fourth outfielder on this time long term.

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