General Discussion, week of 5 December 2011

Phillies Chatter

I know how tough it is to try contain your excitement over every bogus trade rumor/free agency signing, so try and keep it all in this post and out of the other specific topic posts. Thanks.

246 thoughts on “General Discussion, week of 5 December 2011”

  2. Ruben is out there sniffing. Trying to trade Polly, pick up another old 3B, all of this is to bring the price down on Rollins.

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  3. Another head scratcher with the Nix signing. Was really hoping to see a more athletic higher OBP guy from the left side for that platoon. I still believe Jimmy signs back here. I don’t think he would play for just anyone without a 4-5 year deal and I just don’t see any other teams looking for a SS stretching that out.

    So if all things are equal and 3 year deals is whats being offered he lands here. And a 36 year old Polly at $6.2 is next to impossible to move unless you pay most of that.

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    1. I seriously doubt he ends up as a platoon bat. If anything, he’s the LH replacement for the unneccessary RH Ben Francisco. With both corner OFs being RH, we have no need for a RH outfield bat on the bench. Besides, paying Nix $1.25 million per year is cheaper than what Nix BenFran would likely get in arbitration.

      Also, Nix is a better defender than BenFran.

      Its a good bench signing and he’ll get some ABs at 1B while Howard recovers. Mayberry should be the primary LF.

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      1. YOU could hit left handers better than Nix. How can it be a good thing to buy half a player. And by the way it isn’t like he kills righties. You could stretch it to say he is average against RH and pispoor against LH. This is an incredible waste of money and a roster spot but I guess Cholly is happy.
        And if we get to the post season where more moves are made Nix is toast, burnt toast.

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        1. Does anyone take anything you say seriously? A bench spot for someone who has pop at just over 1 million is nothing we carried Martinez, Valdez, Gload, and Fransico last year and im sure Nix will hit more HRs this year than all them combined!

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          1. You are justifying this awful signing by referencing a rule 5 failure, a not hit bench jockey with an under .300 OBP, an injured player and a guy who probably won’t be back. So much for your logic. Look it up HE CAN’T HIT LEFT HAND PITCHING.

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            1. Not hitting left handed hitters isn’t a problem if he doesn’t face left handed pitchers. (Thank goodness the Phillies don’t have any other players signed long term who can’t hit lefties.) Nix has always been heavily platooned in his career. The last three years Nix has performed well in a fourth outfielder role. This year he’ll platoon with Mayberry at best, which is a good idea. The two could easily combine for 30 HRs for less than $2 million. That’s pretty smart really.

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            2. Alan already replied…. If hes hitting against any LHP then Cholly needs to go, hes not being paid to bat against a LHP and unless we are out of Bench options and hes in the game he wont even come close to batting against 1

              Why do ppl complain about someone who is paid $1.25 to split duties or PH, you can complain about 2 years but thats what it took to get him out of WSH and if we know anything about RAJ he gets the guy he wants!

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            3. Alan up to a point what you say is true but Nix is easy target in a tight game yet alone the post season . There are other .240 hitter who can at least hold there own against
              same side pitching. Cheese he hasn’t hit a HR against a left hand since 2004. The real hangup is the two year contract for a guy who was lucky to be invited to ST

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            4. As far as I am concerned leaving him in Washington is a plus. He now blocks a better choice.

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            6. Seriously? We’re arguing about a 4th OF? If Nix gets a start in LF, it’ll be against a RH pitcher. His at-bats will be way limited against lefties. I don’t know why you get so worked up over bench players. Nix would be lucky to get 125 ABs this year. If the phillies lose games, it won’t be because of the bench.

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        2. Actually, that last comment nix2nix just made is a pretty good point and has been my biggest gripe with Charlie Manuel (though there are certainly multiple ones) throughout his entire tenure here. Washed up veterans get unlimited opportunities and guys trying to come up or resurrect their careers could have great years in AAA and still not get a chance over a guy who is stinking it up in whatever role he’s in. Certain guys deserve a shot, and knowing Manuel he will use the veterans the entire year even if they stink up the joint.

          Either way, anytime Manuel has to make a move or strategize we’re burnt toast. Adding a guy who is a liability against the other side of the plate compounds the problem but it doesn’t create the problem.

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          2. Who is Laynce Nix blocking? Domonic Brown? I would rather Brown go to AAA and hone his skills rather than be a bench player who’s likely never going to sniff playing the field because of his weak defense.

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            1. Brown isn’t the only prospect we have. Hell, maybe one of our AA or AAA guys has a great year but he won’t get to play because Nix is blocking him.

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  4. The Nix move means one of two things for Brown:
    1. He should pack his bags (which I hope if this occurs means a different high rated prospect in return)
    2. Brown will spend all of next year at AAA where I hope that he works on his defense and just absolutely dominates offensively like he should and then comes on strong in 2013 as the OF looks very different (who knows what happens to Pence or Vic).

    But otherwise I hope the Nix deal is essentially switching the side of the plate for our 4th OF (RH Francisco to LH Nix) and nothing more than that.

    The Aramis rumors I assume come from the scenario if Rollins walks and thus an offensive 3B upgrade is needed as SS will likely become defensive oriented. Otherwise please no tinkering RAJ.

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    1. Why would Brown be traded just because we signed a bench bat? That makes zero sense.

      This is just a swap out of a RH bat in BenFran for a LH bat.

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  5. If RAJ did swing a deal for Aram while unloading Polly basically we are swapping Defense for Offense and increasing $$$ for it!!

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      1. He is but hes also 34 and who knows if he can stick at 3B for 3 more years? He turned down $16 million so you know hes seeking at least that over 3 years. so is it worth a possibly liability at 3B for a huge upside in offense? We would almost have to do this if our SS is Galvis!

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      2. Polanco’s not exactly a slouch on offense. He had an injury-plagued year this year. He’s one of the few players to go from the NL to the AL and actually do better.

        I’d like to see him finish out his contract and hopefully retire as a Phillie.

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  6. If the Phillies can find a taker for Polanco it seems to me that there’s no reason they can’t afford both Ramirez and Rollins. Polly’s contract pays him $6 million next year, so with Ibanez coming off the books and the team looking likely to go with a low-cost option in left, they probably have the ability to pay Ramirez the $12-$14 million he is likely looking for while remaining cost-neutral on the left side of the diamond. Of course, the rub is the multiple years, but I’m just pointing out that it does not seem like it would be impossible to pull off simply on a cost basis.

    I do whether a team would take Polanco and his salary. But he’s certainly not all that expensive, can play a variety of infield positions, gives you good defense and as there is only one year remaining. It might be a risk someone would be willing to take.

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    1. ACA but Aram turned down a $16 million option this year why do you think he would take a $2-$4 mil pay cut?

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      1. Because he turned down the option to take advantage of his great year to get a long-term deal. He’s 34…this is likely his last shot to get a 4-5 year deal.

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        1. Exactly but do you want him at say on the light side $12 million for 5 years? Or even $16 million at 3 years?

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      2. Granted, I have no idea what he is seeking, but MLBtraderumors predicted at the beginning of the offseason that a 3 year deal for “as much as $42 million” might be possible. Since that was a high-end estimate I guessed a range of $12-14 million per year. I have no idea if he’s right, but he’s obviously paid to speculate about such things:

        http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/free-agent-stock-watch-aramis-ramirez.html

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      3. And, I should point out that the Rangers got Beltre last offseason for 5 years, $16 million, coming off a huge season, at a younger age, and with a reputation for playing premier defense, which Ramirez doesn’t have. So estimates in the $16 million range seem a little unrealistic, although who knows what he himself thinks he’s worth.

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        1. That’s five years, at an average of $16 million per season for Beltre, obviously.

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      4. He wanted security.This is the last chance he has at a 3 year type of contract. $12-$14 million per would get it done.

        I’m not a big Ramirez fan but I think if they signed him and Furcal on a 2 year deal, they definitely would have upgraded the offense. (Gives Galvis some extra seasoning while adding a solid defender/potential top of the order bat).

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          1. That would hopefully decrease some of the strikeouts in the line up too. Furcal’s coming off playing for a Tony LaRussa ballclub and is 2 years removed from hitting .300.

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            1. Only way strikeouts get reduced is if Furcal replaces Pence/Howard/Victorino. One thing that Rollins doesn’t do much is strikeout.

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    2. You are not within 10 million dollars of being correct. Even if you were, signing Ramirez would be a hideous mistake.

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      1. Hey, want to clarify how my math is $10 million off? Last year’s salaries for Ibanez, Polanco and Rollins were roughly $26 million total. Subtract Ibanez (end of contact) and Polanco (via rumored trade) and fill left field with the Mayberry/Nix platoon at about $2 million cumulatively and you have $24 million left. It seems quite conceivable to me that they could sign both Ramirez and Rollins for a total of $24 million. At any rate, it certainly wouldn’t cost $10 million more.

        Whether it’s a horrible idea as you say can be debated. But I stand by math.

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        1. That’s not a legitimate way of looking at the payroll situation because it fails to consider other increases and decreases – the increases (e.g., 10 million more this year for Lee than last year) outweighing the decreases.

          I don’t have the time to lay all all of the math, but even making some favorable assumptions (don’t offer arb to Francisco/Valdez/Kendrick, replace the last 2 with minimum salary players, successfully trade Polanco without taking on any of his salary, etc.), and assuming only 24 million for Rollins & Ramirez – IMO also somewhat optimistic – and we’re looking at roughly 180 million in payroll. That won’t happen; it would be an increase of 15 million over last season’s starting payroll (IMO the correct comparison), it would be over the luxury tax threshold, and would leave no flexibility for in season moves.

          Now, I could see them going as high as 175 million – which would make you only 5 million off. But I’m also not sure how realistic some of the other optimistic assumptions are (e.g., I bet Valdez and Kendrick are offered arbitration).

          Finally, if you want to make even more optimistic assumptions – such as a backloaded long term deal for Hamels – maybe you can create a scenario where both Ramirez and Rollins are affordable. IMO such a scenario would be unrealistic in the extreme, not to mention an even worse idea – as it would further constrain the team in future years because of backloaded contracts.

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          1. In fairness I think I neglected to subtract Polanco’s salary (probably because at some level I just don’t see them succeeding in trading him without either taking on salary or paying part of Polanco’s salary, especially since he is recovering from surgery). We’re still talking about a situation where, even making several extremely favorable assumptions, the Rollins/Ramirez combo fits in only if they raise salary to about 175 million. And then just barely.

            It’s a moot point. I don’t think they have any interest in Ramirez. Rightfully so, IMO.

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            1. Why is that Larry? You don’t see value in a 34-year-old 3rd basemen who can have his 40 time taken with a sun dial?

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      2. Perhaps you were confused, and didnt realize that when I said “left side” I meant left field too. That’s where the offsetting cost savings come from (obviously, but I guess it needs to be stated explicitly).

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  7. Think you’ve got it right:: Aramis to HIT at 3rd base, with Galvis/Valdez at SS, defensively.

    Polly is faded/almost done, despite words of praise from management which always hides the ball; Aramis allows SS to be defensive. J-Roll’s asking price increases in amount and years with Reyes 6-year $18 mil/yr.

    Can’t see the Phils answering THAT call.. J-Roll likely gone with a couple of early draft choices as compensation.

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    1. reports Giants may not be able to afford JRoll at beyond three years, so may have to cross them off the list.

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      1. At all. They may not be able to afford Rollins at all next year or the year after. They have to pay Linceccum and Cain and that Zito contract is killing them.

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    2. But Valdez is really not very good at defense. Galvis is obviously a stud defensively but Valdez is closer to Wes Helms than Abraham Nunez.

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      1. I guess I haven’t been watching the same games as you. I think that most people would agree that Valdez’s defense is strong. That is not to say that he is as good as Rollins, but even Galvis may not be able to carry JRoll’s glove.

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        1. Average is more like it. I have been watching the same games as you (pretty much all 100+ of them that are available to non-Comcast subscribers for almost 10 years now) and I’ve seen a player who is adequate defensively.

          Saying that the position would be a defensive one with a guy like Valdez playing there is just not accurate. It’d be an adequate one defensively and that’s it.

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        2. I am with you–Valdez plays an excellent shortstop. He turns doubleplays beautifully,has a gun for an arm and positions himself well. He has performed well beyond my expectations when they signed him. Very smart baserunner who regularly goes first to third and second to home better than most guys on the team. Not fast but instinctive.

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          1. He’s definitely more than outperformed my expectations but the fact is that he does not have a gun for an arm and though he makes more plays than not, he’s not a defensive stud nor should he be characterized as one. He’s a replacement player and he plays like one in all facets of the game. That’s not a knock. He’s a solid bench player who does everything adequately but nothing spectacularly, which is what makes him a good replacement player and spot starter.

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            2. Listen. He may not field SS at an elite level; but he has a cannon on his shoulder. He throws better than anyone in the IF.

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            3. His defense is better than starting shortstops on many MLB teams and you betrayed yourself as not really knowing what you’re talking about when you said he doesn’t have a good arm. I’d be surprised to find out that you even watch baseball.

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    1. Unless the phils sent them 20+million a year I don’t see that happening. The things is that Howard isn’t a bad player, he is definitely overpaid but there is no reason to get rid of him (no one is taking that contract). That and they can always plug in Berkman at 1B.

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      1. Overpaid why exactly? He was going to get paid a lot of money in free agency. Do you not remember how good Howard was in 2010 before he got injured? He was one of our best hitters and was around .300 the whole season until he had that ankle injury. He’s also a defensive stud at 1B right now. Hindsight is 20/20, though I would bet that Howard has a bounce-back year this upcoming season if he comes back from injury soon enough. He’s not even remotely a “bad player”, not just “not a bad player”.. he’s a very good one who has had some struggles recently.

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        1. Now, you have really confused me. “Valdez is not very good at defense” but Howard is a “defensive stud”. It sounds like you are letting offensive production affect your definition of defense.

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          1. Uhh… no. Guess you didn’t watch this season where he had an impressive play at 1B in almost every game.

            You’re just not as knowledgeable as you like to think you are, no matter how condescendingly you try to talk to people who disagree with you. Valdez is adequate on defense. Howard is above-average and closer to solid.

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            1. Wow, mind if I jump in here….. Howard is nowhere near above-aveage defensively. Not even close. He can’t throw to second base to start a double-play. He has shit foot-work around the bag. He makes at least 12 errors a year, usually leading the way for first-baggers. He costs us errors by either not getting off the bag or not scooping balls in the dirt. He has a slow first-step, and is just slow, period. Oh, yea…. He has poor range.

              Just because he takes a step and flops to get a ball, doesn’t mean he’s good.

              You might be a TruePhan, but you need to take your blindfold off.

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            2. Howard is middle of the pack defensively….in fact I bet to say Mayberry is better defensively at first base if he had a full spring training there.

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            3. TruePhan, with all due respect, I have not been condescending, however, you are rapidly getting there. I think that if you took a poll of readers on this site, or major league managers, or major league scouts, the large majority in each group would agree that Valdez is a better defensive player than Howard. Howared certainly made some great plays last year, but there are a lot of plays he didn’t make. I rate Howard as below average defensively; Valdez as above average defensively. You are of course, entitled to disagree and defense is notoriously difficult to quantify, but I think that the preponderance of the evidence favors Valdez over on defense.

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        2. There’s so much wrong with this at every level that I could write 300 words pointing it all out. But if you think he is a “defensive stud” then probably nothing could convince you how wrong you are. That’s like calling Nelfi Perez a stud hitter.

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          1. Uh… no, it isn’t. There’s also nothing you can point out, otherwise you would. What’s the matter, Mr. Expert… panties in a bunch because somebody disagrees with you?

            I know, I know.. nobody is supposed to ever question you. My apologies, all-knowing one.

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            2. Maybe the opposite would be better, he SHOULD get high before posting. Might mellow him out a little. Funny how defensive he gets when someone disagrees with him. I don’t even thinks he reads half of the post before he starts calling people condescending know-it-alls.

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  11. Dont really understand the nix signing. not that much of a upgrade based on his numbers, st louis would pay ryan howard if they lose pujois, dont think they would ask us to fork over 100 over five years in a trade.

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    1. Cards are making offers and are willing to pay Pujols 27/28 annum….surely they could handle Howard’s contract for lesser years no less.

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  12. Maybe my mind has just been twisted, but why not take a cheaper option in Furcal who proved he can hold his own defensively just as Rollins had and then use the money freed up to beef up the offense?

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    1. Thinking it over a bit more… the only problem with guys like Furcal and other former standout players turned defensive studs/very solid replacement players is you have to wonder when they’re going to hit the wall completely and go from being Furcal to being one of the many players who can’t even stick with a major league club anymore (names are escaping me at the moment). It’s the same thing in other sports too.

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  13. Polanco makes 7.2 million next season. I reckon he is tradeable , as there are needs around. The injury he last had was described as intestines protruding through abdominal wall (hernia). And since neither intestines or abdominal wall is not primary to baseball activities but secondary, I figure it will heal up in time, and he should be good as new(almost). I saw that ESPN’s David Schoenfeld questioned whether Philly could move him to SS, a much maligned idea I brought up awhile back. He started off as a SS, last played there in the 20th Century. So sure, but…..

    I see Detroit, from whence he came, has an opening at both 2B and 3B, however, so maybe they might want him back. Hear they want to unload Delmon Young, who makes almost as much money.
    If they could get that done, they can flip Young, add Domonic Brown, and Freddy Galvis, and offer that package up to Cleveland for Asdrubal Cabrera. I hear Cleveland needs a 1B candidate, maybe, and maybe even another reserve OF. so maybe they add in Cody Overbeck, and Tyson Gillies, and maybe take back a bench player. Maybe that has to wait till after the Rule 5 Draft, for all that movin’ around. I would do that one.

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    1. I would not trade Gillies right now as his stock is super low and has a potential to go up? All the kid has to do is stay healthy for 1 year and his stock goes up even if he does not hit great! No way you trade someone in the situation unless they want to just throw him in a deal!

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    2. Not just a hernia, a sports hernia.

      It’s one of the most painful and hard-to-deal-with injuries in all of sports. It sidelines professional football players for entire seasons. The fact that he played with it is pretty impressive and very representative of Philly and all the true fans therein.

      Nice use of the word whence by the way. It was a nice touch.

      Anyway, I wouldn’t do that trade. I’d like to see if Galvis could be an actual complete player or if 2011 was a fluke. His glove is too good to not give him a longer look.

      Also, Brown’s stock has to be down right now so I’d rather wait until his and Gillies’ stocks have risen to decide whether or not to trade them.

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    3. I thought about Cabrera too but I think the trade would be Brown, Worley, Aumont and Galvis for Cabrera and a relief pitcher.

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  14. I’d feel kinda silly if I called myself TruePhan and then proceeded to make a fool out of myself. This guy has some kinda hatred of Wilson Valdez’s defense, and he’s out to let all of us know about it. So make sure you all listen up now!!

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  15. Watch Teixeira play 1st base or go find some footage of Keith Hernandez. They are/were superior defensive 1st basemen. Howard is a hack in comparison and you would be hard pressed to find many who play the position any worse. Defensive stud should never be used in reference to Howard. It’s foolish.

    A couple of wobbly foul territory catches which would have been caught easily by a more mobile 1st baseman does not a defensive stud make.

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    1. Hilarious.

      I have watched them all play defense thanks. It’s pretty pathetic the way you feel the need to bash Howard so much instead of just pointing out the few flaws he actually does have.

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      1. He has more than just a few flaws as a 1st baseman. He is poor defensively. If you really have watched some of the best defensive 1st basemen in baseball history play and think Howard compares favorably, I suggest you have hometown-favorite-player disorder which seems to have made your objective reasoning skills evaporate.

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      2. Howard has been playing first base for the last 17 years, since he was in high school, through college in SW Missouri and 3/4 years in MiLB. and he still makes some of the same mistakes …over and over again.

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        1. Absolutely correct! It’s the same stuff year-in and year-out. Before you called Ryan a middle of the pack first baseman. Not anymore. If guys like Adam Dunn, Travis Hafner, etc., still played first, I’d say yes. But I can’t think of 14 first-basemen worse than Howard.

          I think we all need to stop replying to “TruePhan” cuz he clearly has no idea what he is talking about, especially when he uses a term such as, “few flaws.” Howard has one of the five tools in the baseball world, and even that one tool is looking like it’s starting to diminish…. Call me when he’s back to hitting 45-homers and 130-rbi, then we can look past some of those “few” flaws.

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      3. There’s nothing he really does as a first baseman.

        As a hitter? I don’t really like his approach but he puts up serious numbers.

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  16. Watch Teixeira play 1st base or go find some footage of Keith Hernandez. They are/were superior defensive 1st basemen. Howard is a hack in comparison and you would be hard pressed to find many who play the position any worse. Defensive stud should never be used in reference to Howard. It’s foolish.
    A couple of wobbly foul territory catches which would have been caught easily by a more mobile 1st baseman does not a defensive stud make.

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  17. Wow, lots going on. My opinion of Howard’s defense is that he’s become average in his fielding but is still below average with his throwing. (I agree that Teixera’s defense is almost as good as Hernandez was.) Valdez has little range at SS but has good hands and has a terrific arm, better than Jimmy’s. For that mater, Jimmy has little range left but he has the best hands there are and the most consistent throwing arm I’ve ever seen. Galvis, when and if he gets to philly, will be a dramatic improvement in SS range but he’ll probably have 10 errors in half a season while we were used to Jimmy having 12 for the entire year. As for Nix, he’s an adequate lefthanded hitting OF with some power. Clearly, the Phils wanted someone better initially (Sizemore, DeJesus, and Kubel to name 3) but they’re all going to get starter’s playing time (and money) which the Phils wouldn’t offer. They think Mayberry has the earned the chance to play and we all hope he builds on the 2nd half of this year. Dom will play all year at AAA, where he belongs, and be allowed to grow and improve. Look for Jimmy to get a 4 year offer from Milwaukee and then have to decide what to do. Jason Bartlett in a trade with SD for Schwimer is my guess as to who plays SS for us next year…. although I hope I’m wrong and Jimmy decides to take teh Phils’ 3 year offer.

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      1. Yes, if that starting shortstop is the equivalent of a Wilson Valdez.

        Now, really, was this a serious question? A borderline major league middle reliever commanding the price of starting shortstop. Really?

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        1. The poster above me suggested that he’s worth Jason Bartlett.

          Jason Bartlett >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Wilson Valdez

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  18. Somehow, I think that this Ramirez business is, at least in part, meant to send a message to Rollins that if he doesn’t sign soon, the salary flexibility to give him the kind of deal that he expects, even for three years may be gone. From a practical standpoint, I think that investing any more money in such an old group of starting infielders is not wise, as the older they get the more time they are likely to miss. Therefore, I would be surprised if we see both Rollins and Ramirez in the infield next year.

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  19. Jason Bartlett…seriously Murray where did you ever come up with that idea? RAJ’s initial reaction on ARAM was that he wasn’t their kind of player and I have to agree…his numbers not withstanding but his attitude. Smart though to use it to create leverage with Jimmy.

    I think they really want Jimmy back and I think Jimmy really wants to be back. They just need to find a dignified way to do it so that Jimmy’s ego doesn’t get beat up to much.

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    1. Where’d you get that from? That was their reaction to Jose Reyes.

      Pat Gillick, according to CSN Philly, seemed to be impressed with him and his opinion carries a lot of weight with Ruben. In fact, it was Ruben who sent him to the dominican to visit with him.

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  20. Galvis better hope Jimmy is gone. If they sign J-Roll for 3 years. Tyler Greene will be Philliy’s next SS. Bigger, Faster, Stronger and much more range with a better arm!

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    1. Exactly. I think Tyler Greene fits into the Phillies longterm plans at SS much better than Galvis. Galvis would make a nice utility guy for the Phillies.

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    2. Although my beliefs in Greene don’t stem from the defense. I think Green can provide slightly above average defense and a much better bat. Galvis provides great D and no bat at all.

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      1. I think this year will go a long way to determining if Galvis should still have the “all glove no bat” label. If he can at least repeat his offensive performance from this past year than maybe he has turned a corner of sorts and can be at least an average MLB ss. Just my 2 cents.

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        1. I suppose so. If he takes any step back at all though I would just see this last season as a fluke. It certainly looks that way so far. He had sub .600 OPS in 4 seasons before this year.

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          1. Very true. I’m almost reticent to give up on anyone anymore though. Hell, if Mayberry can learn to hit offspeed pitches at 28 than there’s hope for anyone. I like that they were aggressive with Galvis’ progression through the system and think it could be more than a coincidence that his new workout program, along with repeating AA, led to much better results. Good thing is, he’s still very young. Like you however, I do see Greene as a higher caliber player when all’s said and done. Should be interesting at SS for the next few years if JRoll walks though…

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    3. Probably has more to do with service time… Galvis has 2 more options left (?). If they sign Rollins and Galvis continues to develop he’d become a good trad chip for a third baseman.

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  21. Let’s think last year over especially the postseason. One main reason they lost was the fact that no one on the bench was able to replace a player whose gonads were playing bablou on his insides. Has anyone learned a lesson. DON’T THINK SO. Fringe players anywhere on the roster yield fringe results.
    Everyone is looking at Galvis as the ST Galvis when what would be important is the post season Galvis. In other words players with a ceiling . The eight position starters can not carry the team anymore.

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    1. ST Galvis and Postseason Galvis next year still won’t be able to post a below average season with the bat. He will be one of the worst offensive SS’s in the entire game if he is a starter next year. Also isn’t this why Rube has gone out and bolstered the bench this year. This year’s bench is going to be much better than last year. Thome, Wigginton, Nix represent upgrades to at least 3 of our bench spots last year.

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      1. But not nearly good enough . Thome is good but limited. The others are fringe players with no future.
        BTW congrats on having a crystal ball to let us know what is in store for Galvis.

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        1. I’m just playing the odds. What do you think Galvis’ numbers would be next year if he were in the majors? It’s more likely that he is well below league average offensively than he is an average hitting shortstop. What about Galvis screams productive hitter ceiling?

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    2. Just a note: If they said Polanco had a groin injury, they did not mean Gonads. The Groin muscle runs along the inside of the thigh.

      And it’s babalu.

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  22. What Galvis screams is Larry Bowa. He also scream minimum salary. I would bet the family jewels that he could outhit Valdez. If the team wants to get AR then he plays in the major. If the team signs Rollins I think it should be at third which would extend JRs career. If they want to sign both
    I would look to make Galvis a IF sub by the second half at AAA, Sooner or later you have to have subs that will work their way into the lineup.

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    1. Galvis would appear to get better offensively as he ages…after 2/3 years in MLB. Why not let him play a year in LHV to help his development?

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  23. Angel Pagan traded to the Giants for absolutely nothing. Pagan or Nix let me think. Please don’t bring up the division thing the Mets are not even trying

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      1. Yeah, and the Mets also get Andres Torres, who for those who believe this kind of thing, is the 2nd best CF in all of the MLB (FanGraphs WAR rankings.)

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          1. I really can’t even begin to imagine where he gets this – though it is certainly of a piece with marfis’ generally hilariously clueless misunderstanding of modern statistical analyis.

            At first I thought it might be defense – where Torres gets 40% of his career value per Fangraphs – but even there he is not in the top 5 however you choose to measure it.

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            1. Classic marfis: data pulled from his behind and presented as if it were the revealed wisdom of Bill James himself.

              And classic nowheels: using his own ignorance of baseball to support And classic nowheels:

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        2. I got it from an article by Dierkes on MLBTR concerning the trade summary. I believe it is for last season ,, only.

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          1. Upon further review, I went back to the MLBTR article, it is by one of their newer guys now, with contributions from Dierkes, and that phrase appears to have been removed. But it was in there. Must be it was checked on found to be in error, and then deleted. It just goes to show you can’t trust the accuracy of some people who dogmatically adhere to a certain philosophy.

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            2. ‘It just goes to show you can’t trust the accuracy of some people who dogmatically adhere to a certain philosophy’…..self-analysis by marfis….on the mark.

              Like

    2. Pagan got a very bad report card from his teammates and Mets mgmt. Apparently he did not like to pracltice or take bp. Sounds to me like Utley would have been beating him with a bat after about 3 hours of that kind of crap.

      It is clear to me that the Mets built a very latin oriented team in many respects. Mostly, they all had lousy attitudes. You can look that one up too.

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  24. reading mlb trade rumors, phillies interested in gio gonzalez, how do we get him ? with what>.will ruben bend and give jimmy 4 years with option for fifth, I like jimmy but wouldnt do it, we must get younger,at some point.dont want to get tied up with anymore bad contracts like blanton, howard,the howard contract can really hurt this team in future years.unless some team takes him as a dh with us kicking in some money.

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    1. Word is Oakland has lost David DeJesus, and likely might lose Josh Willingham and Coco Crisp also. That is 3 starting OF’s out. Maybe they go Domo Brown, maybe they can work a deal for another OF to ship there, add in Gillies maybe, and I suspect Oakland would want a pitching prospect back. So maybe they go May or what.
      No Rollins, you need somebody else. Alot of the other IF’s are of the same age, and don’t see any sure replacements for them , either. Lots of ifs, regardless of path.
      The Howard contract may not be a bad contract, that is just a theory. He will be 37 when it is finished, not 42, like the rumored Pujols deal might produce. The decline in some of Howard’s numbers might be due to the injury to Howard’s plant foot, which occurred a few years back, and I said at the time that it might reduce Howard’s power for a time. Now that it has blown out completely and been completely reconstructed, he might be better than before; Get back to the pre-plant leg heel injury level..
      And he still will make 20 million per season for the next 2 seasons, and then 25 million for the last three. Not that big considering a HR hitter who drives in runs, which, regardless of some beliefs is important. Every team has signed players of that type for around that level of money. Regardless of the orientation of the management.

      Like

      1. marfis,

        If he gets back to his prior level of play, and maintains it through the contract, then the contract is arguably worth it. Borderline even then, but I’d take that.

        If Galvis develops 30 HR power, he will be an all star. IMO that is more likely than Howard regaining his past level of play and maintaining throughout the contract. Aging curves matter, and Howard has already demonstrated a significant decline.

        Like

        1. But of course in one pendantic sense you are correct that saying that the Howard contract is a bad contract is “only a theory” – in the sense that ANY prediction about future events is only a theory. (You sound like nowheels). It is true that, if Howard has a highly unusual, almost unprecedented aging curve, the contract could be worth it. But the more likely outcome is that he won’t be worth half of the contract amount.

          Of course, if I wanted to be pedantic, I could argue that the contract is by definition a bad one – given that, quite apart from predictions of future performance, it is quite evident that the combination of the past 2 seasons and the current injury mean that, if he had not been signed and was on the market now, OF COURSE he would get a much, much lower contract. Probably a one or two year contract for much less than 20 million per year. An above market contract is by definition a bad one.

          All that said, I have to give you points for creativity and chutzpah – finding a way to argue with a straight face that Howard’s serious injury enhances his value by somehow negating the effects of the earlier injury.

          Like

  25. If Pujols signs with the Marlins vs the Angels or Cards, does that make our division even tougher?
    The Marlins lineup will have Stanton, Ramirez, Morrsion, Sanchez(?), Reyes and Pujols….oh and maybe even Wes Helms. Things will definitely be more difficult in the East. And then there are those pesky Nats and their young guns and studs.

    Like

    1. I say absolutely yes with one caveat. JJ is fully recovered from his Shoulder problems and he gives them 30 starts. They definitely become the Wild Card favorite if that happens they can cause some problems for the NL contenders.

      I don’t think they are in the mix for CJ Wilson but if they can somehow land Buerle look out.

      Like

  26. This is more fun than juggling chain saws. I’d like to see what GM would trade for Polanco and take on all of his salary plus the buyout before anyone knows the status of his health. The only chance that gets done is to throw in a really good prospect.

    At some point RAJ has to regain financial flexability. Its gonna hurt and its going to be taking some chances on some young guys. I think its more about being lucky than good and I point to the Cardinals and Giants year before last. Who would have thought Craig and Freese would have the playoff run and WS run they had. Who would have thought Cody Ross of all people would have knifed us.

    Paper Tigers are not having much luck bringing home the gold these past few years. With pitching staff we have I would relax and allow the market to come to me.

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  27. Okay – prediction time.

    My guess is that Rollins ends up getting something like a 4 year, $50-55 million contract with a 5th year option at around $14 milliion and a $ 5-7 million buyout (unlikely Phils won’t buy him out). Frankly, if Rollins churns out 3 WAR seasons – and I think there’s a good chance he will – it will be fine.

    I am hearing Gio Gonzalez for Dom Brown rumors (Phils would clearly have to include other players). In the abstract, that might not be the worst trade, but what I don’t like about it is the notion that you are trading a young player who provides something you need (offense) at a time when that player’s value is significantly depressed for another player whose value is peaking. That’s Ed Wade territory folks. I guess we’ll see.

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    1. He provides you a need but there’s always outfielders available either via trade or free agency.

      If the Phillies sign Rollins to a 4 year deal with a 5th year option, I might do a Domonic Brown, Freddy Galvis, Trevor May, and Justin DeFratus for Gio… problem is somebody can top that offer.

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      1. I don’t like the idea of trading three of our top five prospects (including Brown) for Gio, who is a good pitcher but a guy that I don’t love. I think we should only make this trade if we plan on dealing Hamels as well, since our system would be seriously depleted otherwise.

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        1. I doubt Oakland would take that. Our blue chip prospects really don’t stack up around the league. I think our farm system is going to look a lot better around the deadline after guys like Larry Greene establish themselves.

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        2. I love Gio though so I’d sell the farm on him. I’m not a real big believer in Trevor May. I need to see him do it at AA. I’m expecting a bounce back year from Brody Colvin, so I’d consider Trevor expendable.

          I’m a big fan of the guys we drafted and I really think at least 2-3 of those guys are going to be a part of the next wave of Phillies.

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        3. I am glad they are now out on Gio. There has been a decent amount of work done that says much of his stats are products of his ballpark. He is a flyball pitcher that struggles with walks and I could see his stats balloon in Philly. That being said I think he is a good #3 but that isn’t worth selling the future especially when he would slot in as the #4 on this team (I really don’t think you can get true value for Hamels, those that have it won’t part with it). This might have been a kick the tires and/or gauge Brown’s worth on the market.

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  28. If there was any truth to that Gio rumor it smells like a 3 way trade. I can’t see us rolling out that type of a pitching staff with the same line-up if not worse than what we put out at the end of the season.

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  29. How is the offense going to be one bit better with the same players. Pence for a full season ,maybe but remember he was in a gigantic slump when he came here so in a sense Houston paid his bad at bats and made his Phillie average look better. Utley a big maybe. Howard a real bid maybe. Even if Rollins resigns it is dismal

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      1. I Nix that comment. Other than the lateral closer move why are you so hopeful. The phils blew 8 saves last year. Boston blew 16. Face it those who do not change their offense are doomed to repeat it.

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      2. Doumit was my key along with Aaron Hill, I would of tried mightly to reacquire Cardenas as a Util with a future ceiling. I think Galvis is close but too bad Davey Lopes isn’t still here to instruct him.
        They can blow in MY ear all they want a vet .240 hitter is a .240 hitter

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    2. ‘……there you go again….why don’t you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don’t you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don’t you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?’….Oddball

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    3. The Phillies’ offense is dismal. I mean I guess if you compare it to their top offense that was full of mashers from a few years ago it is. They were 13th in the majors in Runs Scored. Hardly dismal. Also with the upgraded bench when people get hurt we have better offensive pieces to plug in. Do you realize how many games Martinez, Orr, Valdez, played in and started last year? Only one of those guys should see anytime with the club this year.

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  32. Yes, I would try to sign Jason Jaramillo. He would be good catching depth. Especially with Schneider like glass. Him and Kratz would help fill any gaps with the Pigs.

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  33. Hearing some reports Rollins signed, although the Phillies are denying it. I don’t have a great comfort level of him staying healthy consistently. But I guess that is the game today.

    We wait on Madson tonight – arbitration or pass?

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    1. If Madson accepts arbitration he will be a very valuable trade piece. Because teams looking for bullpen help will be interested in Madson on a 1 yr 8 mill contract. If he doesn’t accept arbitration the Phils get draft picks. I think it’s a win win for the Phillies really.

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      1. I don’t see why he would.

        Why wouldn’t a team just sign him to a 1 year $8 million deal themselves? I’m sure the Red Sox or Angels would love that deal. Plus he gets to close.

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  34. Don’t see the suitors for Madson. Boston doesn’t value the closing position, at least $$$ wise. LAA is going to spend big money on CJ Wilson.

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  35. Just a hypothetical: The Phillies have not signed Rollins and Hanley is out there. What would you offer the Marlins?

    Next hypothetical: Madson accepts arbitration. What does the bullpen look like and does this make any of the kids expendable to be shopped? Who would you move?

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  39. UGH! Latest reports suggest that the Astros are hot to take Jiwan James in the Rule 5 draft. Apparently they will stop at nothing in order to reconstitute the 2010 Lakewood Blueclaws roster.

    The latest Rule 5 talk

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    1. The more I think about it just seems a poor decision to take James in the Rule V unless you think he is a lot more advanced than the Phillies or scouts think. I don’t think it would be hard to hide him on the Astros 25 man roster, they just don’t have that much talent. But we would agree here even if he was safe from the Rule V that 2014 would be incredibly optimistic. He has been a hitter for just two and a half years, he needs to see pitching and that isn’t something to do on the major league level. There is a reason why position players never last on rosters in the Rule V unless they are all glove utility players which means SS or bust you just can’t carry someone who can’t hit.

      My prediction is the Astros take him (this seems to be a given) and they do one of two things: return him when they realize that there is no way he can contribute with a bat at all this year or they keep him all year and run a 24 man team and pretty much destroy his career by at least 2-3 years (at best his hope becomes to be dropped off the 40-man and claimed and given a chance to hide for a couple of years of development). It is pick I guess the Astros have to make I just don’t see it working.

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      1. It’s a no brainer to take him, I think. He plays a premium defensive position, maybe not SS, but CF is premium and he is tremendous at it. In addition to running the bases, that’s all he needs to do.

        I’m still dumbfounded why the Phillies couldn’t find room for one of their top prospects. Bowker will obviously be outrighted soon enough, but Rivero’s a waste of a spot too.

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      2. I could see the Astros taking a guy like James. It’s not like they’ll be contending this year. I would feel badly for James. He’ll lose another year of development and he’s a guy who really needs that development. His years lost as a pitcher and injury have slowed him down. He’s a special athlete but is he a special baseball player? Maybe he would have fizzled out in AA or even AAA in the future but putting him in the Majors at this point in his career and using him as a late innings defensive replacement and maybe 100 ABs, can’t help him in the long run. IMO

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      3. If the Astros think that James’ defense and speed are major-league level tools, I think they can afford to keep him as a fifth outfielder/late defensive replacement/pinch runner. I mean, the Phillies were contending last year and we seldom saw Ben Francisco between May and his big HR against Garcia. Doesn’t seem impossible that the Astros could hold onto James all year in a situation that they’re unlikely to contend.

        I’m just a bit baffled. Tyson Gillies better be much, much better/healthier this year, because he’s taking up a 40-man spot too. Considering his not-so-hot performance in the AFL, I wonder if Gillies would have gotten taken if he had been left unprotected?

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  40. I honestly think James will get taken. Which puzzles me. Why bother leaving the roster spot open when the player you get in the Rule 5 won’t be any better than James?

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  41. Leaving James unprotected was an unecessary risk IMO, but it would be a true sign of managerial incompetence if a team actually wastes a big league roster spot on him. Still, I’d like to see him stick around. Guess we’ll know in a few hours

    Also, starting to see reports of a Jimmy signing in the area of 10-12 mil per. I’m still pulling for the 3yr-32mil guarantee including a 4yr team option or 2mil buyout. It will probably end up a bit higher than that, but I’l stick to my original prediction

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  42. Really surprised Madson declined. I wonder if pride made it to difficult to come back. That whole situation was weird. Leak a 4/$44 then retract it then go over the top 4/$50 with Pap. Would love to know the true story behind that. I’m guessing he has a shot to find work on a 1 Year Deal then he can do FA all over again next year.

    I thought all along Jimmy would be back but was also intrigued by the notion that Galvis might get a shot to earn the job. I’m still hoping for a high upside LH to platoon in left field with Mayberry. A guy I like is Coghlan from the Marlins. His stock is down but only 2 years removed from a .321/.390/.460/.850 season.

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    1. Really think there is only one factor for Madson. You do not go back to setting up once you have earned a niche as a closer. Never. Whatever we might think about those roles, that’s the way MLB is set up today. His status and bucks are in closing, and that in the single, onliest factor in his decision.

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      1. I disagree. He was going to win his arbitration and get between $8-$10. Scouts in this league know he is a capable closer. A 1 year deal would not diminish his value as a closer.

        If your Ryan where do you go now? Who wants you? Boston maybe but they appear not to value the role to the degree he is looking for.

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        1. There’s a multiyear deal out there for Madson. Why would he accept? I wish he did but I never considered it as a possibility

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      1. I’m not sure if that was an attempt to sound condescending Rick;

        Anyway, it might not be big news, but it’s certainly interesting news for Phuture Phillies followers. If I recall correctly, the Golson trade was Amaro’s first as GM. It also brought John Mayberry Jr to Philly.

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        1. Looks like a winning trade for Amaro…now resign Golson to a minor league contract and that would be icing on the cake, and eventually can let Benny Fran. walk..

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        2. Not condescending at all. Just comical. If Greg Golson getting released is big news, or even small news, it’s a slow news day.

          So that means we’re just celebrating the final outcome of RAJ’s best trade? Ok, I thought when Golson moved on from Texas we’d done that. Does this mean when he’s released by the Pirates next summer we’re going to rehash the trade results again? Just wondering.

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  44. Well RAJ now is your chance. The Cards are desperate for a 1B with some cache and at $125 over 5 that has to feel like quite a bargain to bring the home town boy home.

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    1. If they were desperate for a 1B with cache they’d be in on Prince Fielder. It was Pujols or bust for them. I doubt they make any big moves this offseason now. they’re comfortable with what they have. Their offense is still pretty good and their rotation will get better with Adam Wainwright returning.

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    2. I’m not sure if you’re kidding, and this is definitely not going to happen over this offseason given his injury, but if things for Howard get nasty in Philly over the next year or two–as I could see happening, given his contract and his probable decline (and maybe the team’s as well)–I could definitely see a trade like that happening down the line. The Phils would almost surely have to pick up a substantial portion of his salary, though.

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    4. If Howard comes back and plays well I could easily see a deal where the Cards take Howard and a big chunk of his salary, but it wouldn’t happen, if at all, until the next offseason, at the earliest.

      Right now, I’m more worried that the Cards will pick off Jimmy Rollins.

      By the way, the Pujols contract is pretty horrible no matter how good he is. By age 38 it is very unlikely that he is going to be more than a 3 WAR player and by age 40 and 41 . . . . well, it’s not going to get any better.

      What I can’t understand is how the Marlins are funding all of these ginormous contracts. It’s pretty stunning given how cheap they’ve always been and how bad of a baseball town Miami has been. Yeah, yeah, yeah, they have the new stadium, but it’s still pretty crazy.

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      1. Not only is the stadium new they will now be getting all the money Wayne diverted from the team to the old stadium, e.g. all of the parking money, most special seating, nearly all of the concessions add in post season money and it more than they ever dreamed of.
        Over the years they have been near last in payroll. They banked almost everything but the small market money.
        Not that i think this is going to work. They are still the same dopey middle management.

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      2. It is the same thing that is allowing the Nationals to suddenly become big spending contenders. Both of them played poor and had their stadiums funded by tax payers. The Marlins therefore are paying nothing for the new stadium and are just instead reaping in all of the rewards.

        It isn’t going to get any better either because both the Marlins and Nationals will be getting a check from the Yankees and revenue sharing for at least the next few years.

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        1. I see Washington as more of a growing threat. There too many egos in Florida. Don’t forget they once took 5 first round pitchers and came up with nada

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        2. Let’s be fair. The Phillies had their stadium funded by taxpayers too. So did the Mets and Braves. Every team not named the Giants, Red Sox, Cubs and Dodgers had their stadium funded by taxpayers.

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  45. In reference to the above news on the release of Greg Golson, I’d actually like to see the Phillies offer him a minor-league contract and a spring training invite. Given Victorino’s habit of sustaining at least one DL-worthy injury a year, they could use center field depth. Who is the starting CF for Lehigh Valley next year? Posednick? He hasn’t played there all that regularly in recent years, and that’s before you get into the injury history. I can’t see Gillies starting there, considering how he struggled with the bat in the AFL. Golson would get a good depth signing, and if there’s even a 10 percent chance he turns out to be a late-bloomer, a la his trade counterpart Mayberry, it would be a nice development in light of Victorino’s pending free agency.

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    1. I think the starting CF in LHV is Gillies. Not because he is ready for it but because they need to see what they have in him. You can’t put him at reading where you will have Jiwan James manning CF. I like the idea but the LHV OF seems set with Brown, Gillies, Mitchell, Posednick, and whoever else is left.

      First round picks are normally worth at least a second look and minor league contract just on the off chance there is something there, I just don’t see a place for him.

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      1. Really, you think Gillies gets promoted to Lehigh Valley? I’m not being sarcastic, I see your reasoning, but he’s only played 26 games total at AA, and those came 2 seasons ago. Seems like it would be asking an awful lot of him to throw him into AAA right off the bat. I wonder if they maybe even send him back to Clearwater, as they did last season? Or have him start at Reading and have James repeat Clearwater? Or juggle the two of them around the Reading outfield. James has played a little left and right. Regardless, it doesn’t seem to make a whole lot of sense force him to recover his swing at a level he’s unprepared for.

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          1. Well, sure, he could have a great Spring Training. But it seems foolish to count on it, given his performance in the AFL.

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    2. Golson would be a nice pickup as a fifth outfielder. My biggest concern about the bench is that none of our reserves are really capable of playing center field for an extended period of time.

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      1. Both Laynce Nix and Mayberry can play CF. And as long as Benny Francisco is not nontendered, they already have 5 OF’s. The numbers on Baseball Register defense say Benny is great in CF and not so much in LF and RF. So that’s 3 as it stands now. How long term would that be? the entire season? If that happens, they will DL Victorino and call up somebody from the minors, or bring in an outsider, I’m not thinkin” Greg Golson, as he has not really stuck in MLB so far, and unless he starts and stays as a great hitter, you’ll see nothing but complaints.

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        1. I’m thinking a week or two. The defensive indicators I’ve seen on Francisco and Nix aren’t that promising. Francisco has started seven games total for the Phillies in center, and Nix has only started four games total in center in the last five years. So how reliable can defensive statistics for them be? Mayberry seems ok but as a 6’6″ outfielder, he can only stick out there for so long.

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          2. Nix is a above average LF defensively and he can spot start in CF but he’d be below average there.

            Mayberry is a solid defensive CF.

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            1. Nix’s career uzr150 as a centerfielder is 9.6. Victorino’s is 4.1. Yes, it’s an imperfect stat, and, yes, Victorino has played 3 times as many innings therre but, still, there is no reason to think Nix would be below average defensively if he had to play there for a prolonged stretch.

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        2. BenFran is terrible defensively at all 3 positions and there’s about a 95% chance he’s non-tendered now that we have Nix and now that BenFran is entering the overpriced part of his arbitration years for a 4/5 outfielder. We simply dont need a RH bench bat with both corner OFs being RH themselves in Pence and Mayberry.

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      2. Golson? C’mon, we traded him for a reason. I’d rather just promote Scott Podsednik or go track down Kenny Lofton (former serious, latter joking)

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        1. Golson has absolutely no value whatsoever. If we can’t do better from within our own ranks, which I believe we clearly can, then that’s a damning condemnation.

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    3. You mention James, Golson who had his days in Phillie or Gillies who has not played a good season in years for whatever reason, then he went to AFL and did nothing. But no mention of D’Arby Myers who is a great center fielder with excellent defensive skills in Center, left and right field, he is the fastest in the org. He is there in the farm system but has had limited playing time, he should be given the same chance or opportunity to play as the above.

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    1. Even if the Yankees did this where would Montero play? He is a DH/1B at best, there is no way he can play catcher

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      1. I agree the Yankees would never do this deal but I’ll entertain anon1 and pretend they did. You could flip Montero for a really nice player in a position of need. He is highly coveted around the league.

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      2. Montero would be my Al Pujols at 1b……I would flip RyHo to the Cards for prospects.
        BTW…….give the Yanks also Trevor May…that would seal the deal I would think.

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    2. Cashman would not give up Montero for Gio I don’t see him giving him up for Worley. Not to mention I think the general consenus on Worley is not that high. Much like BaBIP is a measure for hitters Swing and Miss% for pitchers is a valued stat. Compare that of Worley and Gio and you’ll see the value difference.

      Thats not to say Worley won’t have a long and productive career as I think he will.

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      1. I can’t believe that stat . Did you forget how many times the batters forgot to swing at Worley pitches especially called third strikes. They obviously are not see the ball out of Worley’s hand. But that does limit his being able to expand the strike zone,

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        1. Nope I didn’t forget. I love the kid I love his make-up. He is fearless on the hill. I merely aim to suggest his value in a player for player return. And what other scouts and GM’s around the league project him as going forward.

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        2. Nowheels, I like Worley too – and I like him more than Happ – but I think it’s interesting that the same debate occurred about Happ after his rookie year, and the same kinds of arguments were made by his boosters – all sorts of rationalizations as to why in HIS case the normal reliable metrics don’t apply.

          You certainly could be right about Worley. But you – and others – were wrong about Happ, and are likely wrong about Worley.

          Which does NOT mean his career will follow the path that Happ’s career has followed. I would expect his ERA to settle in the 3.40 to 3.90 range – which, even given recent declines in runs scored league wide, is very good for a 4th starter.

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          1. I don’t think I was wrong about Happ. Two things happened more pitchers started throwing elevated fastball not just the top pitchers and Happ was not unique. And he went to the wrong stadium with a wickedly short left field.
            Worley on the other hand can not be explained at least not by me. Why no one gets a good look at his ball baffles. Sure someone looking at tapes this winter might find it. Let’s hope not. At the end I saw the trade as a good one but the only thing that made it bearable in the end is the 10 mil.

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            1. With two strikes on left hand batters, Schneider calls for that ‘Maddux-like run-in and then over the inside corner fastball/cutter’ that Worley has developed, and hence he gets a lot of those looking K’s. In the whole sequence he only throws that pitch with two strikes, so the batter doesn’t see until then. Good strategy.

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          2. To me I think Worley will be a mid 3 ERA kind of guy. His peripheral stats blow Happ’s out of the water. So I give him a much better chance to sustain success than Happ’s did. Happ was not as good as striking guys out but had about the same BB/9. The key thing for Happ in 09 was the fact that he had an abnormally high LOB% of 85% which is much higher than his 75% career average. He also had a .266 BABIP.

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            1. He also get’s to learn about pitching from Halladay, Lee, and Hamels for the second straight year. The thing with Worley is he was rocketed through the system so he’s never gotten to stay on one level for long yet. While you could say that this may help him it can also hurt him because he doesn’t get to make his own adjustments at the level he is currently at.

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      2. I think romine is more likely to stick at catcher than montero.

        Worley, valle, Galvis, scwimmer, pettibone for montero and nunez might get it done depending on how they think of worley. Otherwise may would have to replace pettibone. I don’t know if i’d do this

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  47. Can one of you fine salary cap managers figure out where we would be if we sign Rollins to his projected # for 3 Years and give Carlos Beltran a 1 Year $15….

    It doesn’t appear to me he is going to find any takers for a multi year deal. I have to believe he would be interested in us all things being equal for 1 Year.

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    1. Haven’t really worked the numbers for awhile, but it seems to me, with the overages on bench players, the increase in the Rollins deal expected, and the as yet to be known arbitration or? awards for Hamels, Pence, and maybe others, this would bring the payroll well into the Luxury Tax area, and maybe a big overage in the budget. I won’t mention that I don’t believe the oft-injured Beltran can be relied upon or is worth the money. And I believe the roster is somewhat full, and they will not release players they just signed or key players.

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      1. This is whats known or projected for 2012 with 3 more roster spots to fill
        halladay 20
        Hamels 15
        Lee 21.5
        Worley 0.43
        Blanton 8.5
        Paps 12.5
        Stutes 0.45
        Bastardo 0.45
        Kendrick 2
        Contreras 2.5
        Rollins 12
        Polanco 6.25
        Pence 10
        Vic 9.5
        Mayberry 0.43
        Nix 2
        Wigginton 2
        Thome 1.25
        Valdez 2
        Chooch 3.7
        Howard 20
        Utley 15
        167.460.000

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        1. I don’t have all that , I believe the minimum salary guys, with the new CBA will go up to the new minimum which, I believe is going to go to $500,000 eventually, but , maybe $450,000 for now. Unknown by me, so Worley , Stutes , Bastardo , Mayberry, unknown minor adjustments, maybe.. Kendrick made $2.45 million last season, so he won’t go backwards. Rollins might get more, I figured 13 million , beforehand. Nix, I got at 1.25 if it is evenly divided, thought it was 2.5 in total for 2 years, I don’t think he would go back to minimum in 2nd year. Pence, I figured 12 million, originally, so maybe that’s low. I think Valdez is too high,, they should non-tender for that. Francisco still around , also.

          I count 9 pitchers on your list. So, if trends continue all 3 add-ons will be pitchers, or if they keep Francisco and 2 pitchers. Or if they not tender Francisco, add 2 pitchers and in your case add Beltran.

          The Beltran exercise, I say the payroll would start at 170 million, add 2 minimum salary pitchers for another million. If the luxury tax starts at 175 m. Then you had 3 million left for Beltran.. If at 180 8 million and on . Taking your numbers at 167 1/2 adding 1 million for 2 minimum salary pitchers, it’s 168 1/2 , You add in 15 million for Beltran, it gets you to 183 1/2 million. Depends on where the luxury tax level and budget level is. Seems it could be tight.

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          1. Yes I see that and I’m sure I have a few of them wrong. I think Kendrick is actually projected to get $4 in Arb

            …So you are correct if everything stays as it is getting a $15 player seems out of the question without some other moves.

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  48. Here’s another Trade Rumor from MLBTR. This is from Omar Visquel , himself. The MLBTR translation of a tweet from Enrique Rojas quotes Visquel when asked if he has thought of signing with Phillies says something like “We’re working on it.” Another illustrious MLB veteran that can begin his 25th season here, shortly after his 45tth birthday. Don’t know if MLB deal, but , if it is , it could shake up some roster. I think it could give some offense off the MI bench.

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    1. If your idea of “offense” is keeping your team from scoring runs then, by all means, let’s sign up the middle-aged Omar Vizquel. Great idea!!!!

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    3. On the other hand, Rumor has it that Philly wanted Omar last season,, but he was able to pull $1.75 million contract from Chicago White Sox. I looked , he did fall off a bit last season, but he still pulled a .251 average, which isn’t the worst for a Middle Infield reserve. And in 2010 he pulled a .276/.331/.341 something like that. Which isn’t the worst either. Maybe he bounces back. And I misremembered above, it will not be his 25th MLB season, but his 24th.

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        1. Someone has to convince Valdez it is easier to walk to first than run. Sub .300 OBPs scare me and we added another

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  49. The Phillies have signed Dave Bush, Steven Lerud and David Purcey to minor league contracts, the team announced. All three players will be invited to Major League spring training camp as non-roster players.

    Bush, 32, signed a minor league deal with Philadelphia last August and posted decent numbers in four starts for Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Bush is an eight-year Major League veteran, playing for the Blue Jays, Brewers and Rangers during his career.

    Lerud, a catcher, has played eight seasons in the Pirates and Orioles’ farm systems with a career OPS of .665. He has spent the majority of this time in Double-A ball, briefly cracking the Triple-A level in 2010.

    Purcey, drafted 16th overall by the Blue Jays in 2004, was well-traveled in 2011, going from Toronto to Oakland and finally to Detroit in a six-week span. The left-hander has a 5.38 ERA in 87 career Major League games, 21 of them starts.

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    1. Well, that’s at least 2 threads this has been stuck on. I usually prefer just a simple listing on the transactions thread (see above) and if people seek further discussion they can bring it into a thread in a narrative sense.

      But as long as were doing transactions I got a couple more:

      minor league deals:

      Ryan Fierabend, LHP (returns, I say LVIP)
      Carlos Rivera, 1B (note: this is not Carlos Rivero, this Carlos Rivera is around 33, bats left throws left, and plays 1B and some OF. Spent around the last 3 years in the Mexican League (though a Puerto Rican). If Carlos Rivera sticks (which might necessitate the bouncing of Overbeck or Rizzotti ) and he might likely be a teammate of Carlos Rivero, then it might be less confusing if People would start spelling Carlos Rivero’s name correctly. And you know who you are.)

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  50. love to get beltran for one year but 15 is too much, shame if we could get him around 10 and let kenrick walk, the numbers might work. bush would be my fifth starter in the begining to take kendrick place. hopefully someone else would stand out if bush falters.

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  51. Don’t want Kendrick to walk. IMO, he is a valuable piece to fill-in starting and long man in the pen.
    We should realize that he is a guy who pitches to contact and strikes out only an occasional batter. Nevertheless at $4 mil (if that’s what he’ll get) is a bargain in today’s market for pitchers of all kinds. Most teams honor a guy with such a role; taking a look at his ’11’s pitching–check it–shows a guy who has come to a better understanding of his own abilities and limitations and learning how to take advantage of them, fitting them together for a successful season.

    Glad to have him for ’12.

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  52. Have I missed something? I haven’t seen Blanton mentioned as part of the pitching staff. Doesn’t he have another year of salary owed him? I have him as number 4 and Worley as number 5. I see Kendrick repeating his role from last year. He pitched well in big games last year. I expect the same this year.

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    1. I’ve seen him mentioned as a #4/5 here and Renegade. Maybe you just missed it, and yes, he has not been a focus of discussion. I think people are very wary of his health, and assume he will break down early and has a low chance to be a yearlong solution. Maybe the best chance for him is a carefully controlled relief role. On the other hand, Phils say he’s been healthy and they are including him in the rotation. That might be rose-colored glasses or just the company line trying to support Joe’s rehab and return.

      Bottom line, he’s a big gray area.

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    2. I believe Joe Blanton is subtly mentioned when people give out overall team salary projections and Joe’s 8 1/2 million is included in it. And note it is not 10 million or something as some have claimed, because , if you read his page on Cot’s Baseball Contracts it says his signing bonus was paid shortly after he signed the contract. So the signing bonus has already been paid and is lost. and the money they paid in previous seasons is lost, and some might say the money they might pay him this season is lost.
      As far as the injury, Blanton was cleared to play at the end of last season, and , therefore, is theoretically fit to play, at least to start the season. So, he can start off at the beginning , and if he has a big injury again, he will be finished for the season, and maybe career , and, as of now, they have Kendrick.
      So, all is well, pitching wise, or more correctly starter wise.

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  53. Joe Blanton’s health is the reason they will pay Kendrick’s arbitration number for 2012. KK will go into the season as their 6th starter.

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  54. SORRY I FORGOT ALL ABOUT BLANTON, CAUSE I REALLY THINK HE STINKS,BUT THAT IS MY OPINION,WISH HE WAS TRABEABLE,BUT NO ONE WHO TAKE HIM AT THAT NUMBER WITH HIS INJUIRES

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    1. You never know…if he pitches in spring training injury-free, plus he is in his last year of his contract which means only a one year commitment..however, the Phillies may have to pick up a portion of the salary…probably approx $3/4M…but some team who wants to contend, may need a 3rd or 4th rotation guy. However, I cannot expect we would get anything of significance in return for 2012 impact, more likely a AA prospect.

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