Open Discussion, 21 November 2011

Daily Discussion

You asked for it, you got it. Discuss whatever you’d like. Another “what to expect in 2012” is coming this week, so if there is someone you’d really like to see next, you can post it here. Otherwise, the floor is yours.

136 thoughts on “Open Discussion, 21 November 2011”

  1. Whatever is to be discussed, it is our own Hot Stove League…calculated to bear us, finally, to the beginning of that far-away opening of spring training.

    A few notes:

    With the signing of our new Ty, the utility guy, isn’t the 40 chock full? Without any changes there, the Phils would be bowing out of the Rule 5 draft, right? Don’t you have to have an open space to draft a guy?

    Also, though no world beater, Cody Overbeck seems to be a good fall-back at 1st base (maybe pinch hitter?) to be stashed at LV in ’12. He could be an injury away from making his MLB debut.

    Question: how much credence is there in believing Rivero can “be learned” to field at 3rd base during and after spring training?

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    1. Rivero – given (1) that he apprently played a decent though not spectacular SS, and (2) that, from what I can tell, his biggest problem at 3B last year was his error rate, not his range or arm, a problem he had not encountered at SS, I would think that the chances of him becoming an adequate defensive 3B are decent at least.

      I don’t necessarily see him as much of a prospect even so – though given how thin the position is at the major league level, I could be wrong. One would also think that the fact that he can play SS and 3B might make him a decent bench option at some point.

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    3. I think Pedro Feliz gives perspective on Rivero. Feliz was an average at best 3B in his best years and appears to be a better hitter and fielder than Rivero, just based on current development. I will root for Rivero to become a solid fielder and translate his 15-HR power and decent AVG/OBP to the majors. He’s a good pickup. Moderate ceiling, but will have value if he achieves it. And plays a needed position.

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        2. Pete Happy was above average according to the eye test, the scouts and the advanced metrics. This is the first time I’ve ever heard him described as “average at best”

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          1. I was referring to his combined O and D skills over the years. He clearly was an above avg fielder, but the term 3B covers all skills brought to the table, and there were times he was an offensive liability.

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    4. I’ve seen Rivero play 3B up close and personal. I’m not going to say he can’t improve but I’ll tell you who he reminds of there (Cabrera). His lateral movement/reflexes appeared delayed to non-existent. Not sure how this guy played SS above HS ball. His size puts him right out of that position so to say he would have value at SS would not be true.

      Of course that is just my opinion. It won’t surprise me when he moves to 1B at some point.

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  2. I dont have knowledge of the Phillies DSL and VSL leagues or any of the phillies prospects in those leagues besdies Willians Astudillo who hit .361 this year with 15 walks and 2 K’s. Over the course of 3 years he has walked 36 times and only 16 K’s. I think it would be great if someone can update me on if he is a real prospect and the Phillies top 5 prospects from each league.

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    1. Astudillo is interesting. I’ve never seen him play but his offensive graph looks excellent. If his size profile is correct (5’9″ 185 LBS) he sounds like a middle IF yet they played him all over the diamond with the majority of his games at 3B. Thus far his fielding % there has not been great.

      Coming into his age 20 season I’d expect him to open the year at Williamsport or Lakewood where we should actually have a chance to get some eyes on him.

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    2. I figure Willians Astudillo had the numbers as far as OBP, BA and all that to be brought to the States last season, but was not. From reading all the boxscores from previous years it seems to me he is not a good fielder at any position. My guess is he comes this season to fill the 3B role at XST for the GCL team. As I have most of the draftees starting at WPT.(SS)..

      As far as the top prospects for the 2 Phillies entries, though not the resident Latin America expert, I would guess (giving top status to players selected for Instructional League.

      DSL-
      Ulises Joaqin, RHP
      Ranfi Casamiro, RHP
      Francibel Alejo, LHP
      Yari Sosa, RHP
      Adrien Sierra, LHP

      H. M. Franklyn Vargas (inj?), Jairo Cardoza SS, Angelo Mora SS, veterans possible to go to States: Diego Gonzalez, OF, Yan Olmo, OF

      VSL-
      Carlos Tocci, OF (recent signee)
      Jiandido Tromp, IF (recent signee- Aruba)
      Herlis Rodriguez, OF
      Jair Morelos, SS
      Wilson Garcia, 1B-C

      HM- Gustavo Martinez, OF, Alejandro Garcia, OF, veteran possible to go to States: Albertin Chavez INF.

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  3. I am happy with the additions so far, but the big one going forward still has to play itself out. I think ss and cf are closely related as IMO both cannot be in the same lineup if you expect a different approach offensively.
    Therefore, you have two options; let JRoll walk and pick up a stop gap guy like Scutaro or Furcal or deal Shane and get another CF. I wonder if their interest in Sizemore was to that level or they are just taking a flyer on a guy to see if he could play LF in the event he is healthy. I’d roll the dice and deal Shane if you are bringing JRoll back. It would be easier to fill that spot than the ss position. But, I don’t want JRoll back over 3 years and 30 mil.
    I don’t know what the best option is, but will say that one must go and one must stay. I do have confidence that Amaro will do the right thing. I wonder what you might get for Victorino and Kendrick?? I don’t think you expect too much, but you could potentially get back a young 3b guy to groom for the near future.

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  4. Honestly, I am really concerned about the state of our Minor League system at this point, thanks to all the prospects that have been traded away the past few years, and not many prospects left who are highly rated at the moment.

    There are plenty of high ceiling prospects in the system right now, but until I see more of them stepping up to replace departed prospects I am going to remain a bit concerned.

    Nobody seems to be particularly high on our minor league system at the moment, although we all know that can change in a hurry if some guys put things together next season.

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    1. We gave up a lot of talent in the Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, Pence trades. These types of things can be cyclical though. Hopefully some of those hard sign guys we got in last year’s draft impress this year.

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      1. Really Nepp? Let’s leave the Pence deal alone for 2 years and talk about what we gave up for Lee Halladay Oswalt. Of those players who is doing above average in the big leagues? Marson Donald Carrasco…eh I liked em when we had them but they are fringe MLB at best. Maybe Carrasco still has some ceiling

        Who else are you missing? D’Arnaud…do we think he was Buster Posey or Matt Wieters? Jonathan Villar or Gose?

        I’m not trying to say the system is good. Just that its not a whole heck of a lot better with the guys we used to acquire the likes of what we got in return.

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        1. Umm…I wasn’t bashing the deals actually. I was simply explaining why the system has dropped off a bit in the eyes of the scouting groups that rate such things.

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          1. Understood! I guess I don’t agree with said scouts. I think the system at the end of this season is no better and no worse. So when you see those guys tell them I’m looking for them.

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            1. Come on man, how can you say that? We lost – either through trade or promotion to the majors – many of our top prospects (looking at PP’s list, 1, 3, 4, 8 and 13, two via promotion and 3 via trade) and no one had a true breakout year. Yes, there were a few pleasant surprises, but not nearly enough to outweigh the departures (and there were a few disappointments as well).

              Saying that “the system at the end of this season is no better and no worse” not only is wrong, but doesn’t even pass the laugh test. OF COURSE it is worse. Not so much 11 though 30, but the top ten is much thinner. There are reasons for optimism – the organization has a solid development record, the 2011 draft has a lot of upside, there are still some high upside players from prior years in the organization – but we went from a top 10 system to a bottom 10 system in one year in terms of current talent. Maybe we’ll have some breakout years by some of the high upside guys, but you can’t just ASSUME that and rate the organization on that basis.

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            2. Breaking it down into pitchers and position players, I think you can at least make an argument that the progress of May, J Rod, Pettibone, Biddle and a couple relievers outweighs the loss of Cosart, promotion of Worley, and disappointment of Colvin.

              But in terms of position players, of our top 10 guys: 2 were traded, one graduated to the majors, and 2 lost the season to injury. None of the other 5 had any kind of breakout year, a couple were at least mild disappointments, and only Valle projects as a possible major league regular. Of guys ranked lower or unranked, only Galvis had a really impressive year – and even he still has some serious question marks.

              Sure we have some good position player prospects in the 2011 draft, but every organization had a draft, many of which were more highly rated than the Phillies’.

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            3. Larry the angle that I’m looking at from is that I would not redo any of the deals to bring back a prospect we shipped out. I don’t think any of them were special with the exception of Singleton do you?

              The system in my opinion is where it should be relative to the shape of the big club. I think we had a solid draft. I think there are some solid upside players to work with. Just wondering are we trying to have our cake and eat too? Because it doesn’t generally work like that.

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            5. Well alright DMAR – I still would probably undo the Pence trade (though I would have tried to get Bourn instead for less cost in prospects), but your position is certainly reasonable. But in I think if you re-read your prior comment, you will agree that your position wasn’t very clear. 🙂

              As for which of the Pence prospects could be special, I think Singleton, Cosart and Sanatana could all be special. Singleton stands out because his chance of reaching his upside is a lot higher – the betas on the other two are very high.

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            6. Hey Larry I appreciate your point of view. I could be wrong it is after all just an opinion. You and I well we’ll have to wait and see who turns out to be right.

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            7. Brown lost his rookie status already…he doesnt count as a “prospect” anymore despite likely starting the year in AAA

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  5. We still have plenty of pitching talent left in the system although they need Colvin to bounce back. The real issue in the minors obviously is that they have so few guys that project as starting position players. Valle is the highest rated but none of us can give him a can’t miss tag. We all saw how fast Singleton rose in everyone’s eyes because of what he did. Will someone do that this year? Hopefully, Greene plus our SS triumvirate can all make good strides this year because from the group of Brown, James, Gillies, Hewitt, Collier, Dugan, Hudson, Altherr, Pointer, Hernandez, and Rupp, I’m not sure if any of these highly rated, at one time, guys are everyday major league players. We’re all still hopeful on Brown but last year was bad. The other guys? Let me see someone hit 320 above low A and I’ll get excited but we never see that.
    As for the major league team, I still expect a lefty hitting OF (DeJesus or Kubel) to be signed in addition to another veteran reliever. Rollins will only be back if he accepts a 3 yr deal. odds are 50/50.

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  6. So how dumb does RAJ look now for losing our 1st rounder for Papelbon and not getting one back for Madson by not waiting for the CBA to get done?

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    1. I don’t care what Selig says, the new CBA sucks and where the Phils shine, will really hurt them w/ paying mid round talents like 2nd-sandwich rounders. I don’t like anything about the agreement other than the signing deadline.

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    2. Amara can act too quickly to a fault, but do we know for certain that Papelbon would have still been available? The answer is probably yes, but if that was the guy they targeted, and they didn’t think that Madson/Boras would sign for what they thought was a reasonable contract, it’s possible Amaro looked at the costs and benefits of signing Papelbon before anyone else could (and before the CBA was set) and decided to take the plunge. Guess it’s all just speculation without knowing the full story.

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  7. Does anybody know how the new CBA will affect the Phils drafting this year if they have no first rounder? Sounds like the rules for going over slot are punitive but is that on an aggregate/total draft basis or pick-by-pick? If the 5% over slot rule is measured on each pick individually then it would hurt us much more because we don’t have a first rounder.

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  8. From Mike newman chat…

    Comment From Russ
    Colvin or May who has the bigger upside?

    Mike Newman:
    I was not a May fan after scouting him in person. I have serious doubts.

    and this

    Comment From PBR
    Do the Phillies have anything left of value in their system?

    Mike Newman:
    That’s a great question and to be honest….. I’m still thinking….. The fact no other name pops into my head other than Valle and Colvin is certainly worrisome.

    Hmmm?

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      1. Your wrong, there’s a lot it’s just no one in our system ever takes these players under there wing and gives them any extra work. The Phillies are poor at developing players or helping them get better……..

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  9. One more …

    Comment From Chris
    Jesse Biddle?

    Mike Newman:
    Any interest in an official “sidekick” title?

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  10. The Phils will still have a first round draft choice when Madson signs elsewhere. With the new rules, it doesn’t look like they will get a supplemental pick after the first round. True?

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    1. They will get a first round pick and it potentially could be the first overall pick although I doubt that will happen.Whoever signs Madson the Phillies will get to pick in front of them but that team doesn’t lose their pick. The Phillies also get a supplementary pick.

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      1. If the Astros sign Madson, They will get the pick before Houston’s 2nd round pick, and the other protected picks are still protected also, as far as I have seen. Since this was all supposed to be about competitive balance, I doubt they will add penalties to the teams with the worst records, so I don’t expect to learn otherwise.

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  11. It occurs to me that, assuming a 5 man bench, Mayberry in LF, and that Amaro wasn’t blowing smoke about offering Valdez and Francisco arbitration, the Philies bench (once Howard returns) is now set. There has been a lot of speculation that the Phillies will still sign an OF, but as far as I can see there is no room – except for while Howard is on the DL, but presumably the team wouldn’t sign someone to a major league contract to fill in for only part of the season.

    Though it’s possible, I suppose, that signing a guy who may not be able to play the field, and can play 1B at best, might be a sign that they plan to go with a 6 man bench next year.

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    1. Kubel could be the guy and I’d expect he would platoon in LF. If that is the case I don’t think Francisco gets offered tho he still could. I think once Howard returns Francisco is marketable (not for anything of significance in return but a team would probably take him)

      If not a 6 man Bullpen is an option

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      1. I guess all of that is possible – though I think they like Francisco better than you & many other do.

        IMO Kubel is not much of an upgrade over Francisco – if an upgrade at all – a little better hitter but even worse fielder – certainly not enough to justify a FA salary. 2009 was out of the context of his career and unlikely to be repeated. Though being left handed helps – a little ironically, given the concern last year that they skewed too left handed as a team. But as long as we are talking about LH halves of a LF platoon, the Phillies DO have a sadly forgotten internal option.

        All of which is to say that a Kubel signing would not thrill me, though I do see the logic & it would not shock me.

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      2. The more I look at Kubel, the less I like. His fielding is incredibly bad. Set aside the Francisco comp for a minute just because of the LH/RH issue. Compare to Brown – Kubel is probably as bad a fielder as Brown, but at least Brown has some hope of improving. 29 year old players with several years of major league experience do not improve their fielding. Brown as a hitter has MUCH more upside. Not as much power now (though a year removed from the hand injury, I wouldn’t expect a big gap even there, Brown better in every other respect. And of course Brown has more upside and will be considerably cheaper.

        The only argument for keeping Brown in AAA is the “play every day” argument. But that doesn’t fly either; even if he is just the LH half of a platoon, that’s at least 2/3 of the playing time right there.

        I’m perceived around here as being one of the Amaro bashers, maybe fairly. But even now I give him the benefit of the doubt on many moves – e.g., the Papelbon contract, which I don’t like, but which I can see the logic of and it could work out. But signing Kubel over playing Brown would be a completely indefensible move on any level. The ONLY argument against playing Brown is his defense. Picking up a guy like Kubel whose defense is as bad or worse instead of playing Brown makes no sense at all.

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  12. HEY, guess what? Phillies offer arbitration to the aforementioned Raul Ibanez. Now either there is such a thing as a pre-arranged rejection of arbitration , or they are now going to be way over budget. Also Rollins and Madson (MLBTR).

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    1. who doubted that teams in the past have struck ‘hand-shake pre-arrangements’ with players…..this is not something new.

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          1. And just to be clear, I hope to God I am wrong. If they really offer him arb and he takes it, it is such an awful move that even my harsh criticism of Amaro will have been proven to be overly generous.

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          2. Bending over backwards to be charitable, the best case scenario that makes any kind of sense at all is a prearranged rejection where Ibanez is promised a contract as a back up if he can’t get a contract as a regular in the FA market. I see that scenario as (a) improbably, )b) still in a incredibly bone headed move by the Phillies, but not as bad as the horror of actually offering arbitration and having the offer accepted.

            I also am quite certain that such an arrangement would be against the rules – but of course hard to prove.

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          3. It’s a handshake agreement, happens all the time with Type-B free agents. Some agree to it, some don’t. Really up to the player.

            I know people hate Ruben because he’s traded all these future hall of fame players, but he’s not that stupid to let Ibanez make $10 million to be a bench player.

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    2. Still not buying it. Even if the rumor is true, I bet he accepts it – even in the extremely unlikely event that there was a pre-arranged rejection.

      Why would a player ever agree to such an arrangement? Makes no sense at all, he has nothing to gain.

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      1. Which is the rumor, if it is that he has been offered arbitration it comes from Todd Zolecki and says Phillies offer to start it off. Think that is pretty solid. If it is that it is pre-arranged didn’t know that was a rumor, never seen it anywhere but from on here. If he accepts that is likely 10 million or at least 8 , maybe more than 10.
        Players have nothing tangible to gain, but nothing to lose also. Perhaps more veteran players will not burn bridges behind them when leaving , but create some good feeling , perhaps to score a coaching or management position at some future time. Hoping this is the case, and that Lidge will also see the light and make the same deal. If not the offseason might be all over but the shouting. And if they planned to bring back Ibanez and also Benito Francisco, why then was there ever interest in Cuddyer?

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        1. Well, perhaps Ibanez is the fall-back option after they couldn’t make a deal with Cuddyer … but, I have to say that I hope you are right Marfis, I’d much rather be proven wrong on an internet forum than see them bring back Ibanez at 8 to 10 million.

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          1. Ibanez will be lucky to get a MLB deal on the open market. There’s zero chance we’ll be paying him $8 million next year.

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            1. Yeah, that’s right even if he is actually given arbitration for real he’ll get more than 8 million. I looked it up . He made 11 1/2 million last season and since he can be reduced by 20 % that’s more than 8 million. Or is that just for other than Free Agent arbitration?

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            2. The 20% is accurate. However, there is zero chance we would offer arbitration if there was any chance in hell of him accepting it.

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  13. Arbitration for Ibanez? Is he insane? We’ve waited an entire year to shed that obligation. It’s so stupid, so hare-brained that I have no words to adequately express my shock and disgust.

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    1. I can’t stop because this is so dumb. Why would you pay $6-10 million for a player who is old, is declining precipitously, has negative worth, is blocking younger players and puts you in a position where you might not be able to afford the player(s) you really need. Stupid, stupid, stupid.

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      1. …unless there is a ‘pre-arranged ‘ deal as marfis suggested…..rejects and signs for one year $3/4M…keeps his family/kids in Lower Merion school system for another year.

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      1. I’m actually pretty surprised that that sort of thing is even allowed. I’m sure the league office gets annoyed by such things as they seemingly circumvent the CBA.

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        1. Its not allowed nor authorized…the union would be livid and are against it….but how do you enforce and prevent oral agreements/contracts? Hire a legal body and have an investigation each time a player agrees to this with his GM! Too costly and wihout no written audit trail cannot stand up, plus the parties deny it anyway.

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  15. Thanks Rube – it looks like our team’s salary is increasingly being bottled up in long term contracts to older and older players as Rube continues the win this year mentality. It might be okay if we won the last couple years but he’s not getting much bang for all the bucks. As much as we all enjoy the Phillies regular season dominance the bar has been set so high around here that 100 wins without a World Series ring cannot be considered a success. This is beginning to seem frighteningly similar to the Yankees of the late 70’s and 80’s which led to their very lean years in the early 90’s. Where have you gone Pat Gillick? Philadelphia turns its lonely eyes to you…

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    1. Why can’t it be considered a success? 100 wins is nothing to sniff at and nobody’s guaranteed to win anything. I hate that mentality, it’s a horrible viewpoint on baseball or on any sports. Enjoy the success of these teams because we may never have a run like this again, whether or not Ruben kept the prospects or not, which, besides 3 of them, are either busts or overrated by this board, or too soon to tell.

      Pat Gillick would be making the same exact moves Ruben’s making, heck, maybe even more so. He would have gotten Halladay instead of Lee in 09. It’s not like everything Gillick did with the Phillies turned to gold. (Adam Eaton, Jenkins, Lidge’s contract), He HAD to make the moves he made because there wasn’t the money for it. He’s a major proponent of going for it. The only difference is he’s more patient than Ruben and has a ton more experience.

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      1. It was a disappointing ending but to say “100 wins isn’t a success” is really short sighted. That’s like saying the Braves weren’t a success for only winning 1 championship.

        I would take the priviledge of watching Roy Halladay pitch every 5 days over watching D’Arnaud and Drabek. I’d take Lee over that crap we gave up for him. I’d take Pence over Singleton, Santana, and Cosart (who are way too far away and there’s a ton of injury history on Cosart’s arm). The only trade that really didn’t work out was the Oswalt deal, but it was a deal they had to make at the time to make the playoffs.

        Ruben’s made a great deal of small moves that have paid off too, the type that Pat Gillick would have made. (John Mayberry, Pedro Martinez, Jose Contreras, Rodrigo Lopez, Wilson Valdez, etc).

        I’ll take the privileged of watching this team for 162 games. Will I be disappointed if they don’t win? Yes, I will be, but this is a special time in the history of the team.

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    1. Just to be clear I wasn’t singling you out when I made the comment in another thread. There seems to be mass hysteria going on in the Phillies blog community. I think people are overreacting a lot. Anyone calling for a GM to be fired after his team won 102 games (not saying you have done that, it’s just an example) really need to calm down and see how things play out.

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  17. Les Lancaster should be a great hire at Lakewood. Having pitched for Don Zimmer and therefore abused, he should be protective of his pitchers. Do I see the hand of his old team mate Ryne.

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  18. I am curious to know how much stock people place in player performance in winter ball. I notice that J Perez, while his usual wild self, has put up some “interesting” numbers in the Caribbean league while on the surface, Galvis’s triple slash line of .204 / ..292 / .286 in about 100 AB playing winter ball does not paint a happy picture.

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    1. Not sure about others but I put around zero stock in how a player performs in winter ball. For many like Galvis, it’s the end of a very long season. At best, it gives young players a chance to be around major leaguers and hopefully learn how to go about becoming a big league player

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  19. Rumors “11:33pm: The Astros have confirmed in a press release that they are letting General Manager Ed Wade and President of Baseball Operations Tal Smith go. The release goes on to say that Assistant GM Dave Gottfried will serve as interim GM until a new GM is hired. However, Gottfried is not a candidate for the permanent position. The search for a new GM “begins immediately”.
    Who knew he would last this long. The man had no concept and got two jobs. OH The wasted millions

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    1. My favorite comment about Wade was from John Gonzalez who said, in effect, that Wade was a man in danger of drowning face down in a bowl of Cheerios if left unattended too long. Brutal, but point well made.

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    2. Smith and Wade did not attend Crane’s’ welcome to the owners club’ ceremony a few weeks ago…they knew then.

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    3. …but when the ‘Stros are representing the Amercian League in the 2015 World Series with Singleton at first and Santana in LF and Cosart in the rotation…..who will ring the bell for Eddy then!….but we will all know.

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  20. I don’t get it why offer him Arb if you have a hand shake deal for him to come back on a 1 year for less? I wasn’t opposed to bringing him back in a bench role but Thome fills that role.

    C’mon Rube what are you doing….you needed a younger preferably faster lefty with a high OBP for LF.

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  21. The handshake deal wasn’t a guarantee that they are bringing him back but rather a deal that he won’t accept arbitration. This gives the Phillies an extra pick if he signs anywhere else. With the signing of Thome and the trade for Wigginton, I don’t see Ibanez returning.

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      1. Just garnering a little good will with the team. Never know when it might be helpful after the playing career is over. And by all accounts, Ibanez is a class act..

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  22. Yeah, I see the rumored pre-arranged rejection of arbitration by Ibanez as an indication he is not coming back. If they wanted him back they would not need to offer arbitration first , they could just sign him. And , barring some kind of trade to re-arrange the roster an assumed adding of Ibanez does not fit. Because , if you assume continuing with 12 pitchers, then that leaves a 5 man bench which would have Thome, Schneider, Wigginton , a SS (say Valdez), and word has it now they offer arbitration to Ben Francisco, so that’s 5. Assume a veteran SS if not J-Roll , and if Howard is not ready to start the season, you think he will be at some point in the season, so you would want a player that could easily be sent to the Minor Leagues. If Howard is ready for Opening Day, maybe they are already full . It would not be a big surprise to see some back of the roster shuffling and maybe a Free Agent signing in the upcoming Winter Meetings and all. December 1 a key date, as players will have to accept offers of arbitration by then or be considered as declining them, and I believe it is the last day to ask outright waivers on players on 40 man roster prior to the Rule 5 Draft.

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      1. Believe teams have until Dec 2nd to offer contracts to unsigned players who are not eligible for free agency so they didn’t have to offer a deal to Francisco or the other arbitation eligible players yet (Hamels, Kendrick, Valdez, Pence)

        Arbitration eligible players can then file for arbitration starting on January 5th

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  23. According to Bob Elliot, the Phillies and Yankees inquired on the availability of Kyle Drabek with the hopes of fixing his control problems.

    The Phillies are also discussing ways to re aquire Travis D’Arnaud (highly unlikely)

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    1. No problem with kicking the tires on high upside moves. Drabek’s value is probably too low to move him right now.

      D’Arnaud would probably cost too much, though I would at least think about a swap for Brown (moves like that never happen though).

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      1. No way Toronto does that for Brown.

        I could see a Brown/Drabek swap. Both have high cielings, yet to reach it and Toronto has a pitching prospect surplus.

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  25. Multiple sources on Twitter that the Phillies released Scott Mathieson so he can play in Asia. Good for him. Regardless of what you think of his abilities, at this stage in his career he needs the opportunity to succeed or fail. Hope for the best from him.

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    1. Hope he can have some success over there. I’m surprised they didn’t try to sell him though. I’m sure somebody in Japan will take a flyer on him and he’ll have a good career over there, maybe something clicks and he can come back to the United States and help a MLB team.

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      1. I think the fact that they sold him to a Japanese team is an indication that the rest of the major leagues didnt think too highly of him.

        Bottom-line the dude isnt a major league pitcher. The scott mathieson fans on here were fooling themselves. I dont think its a coincidence that a lot of the Mathieson lovers on this website were Iron Pigs ticket holders who witnessed him mowing down 29 year AAA journeyman every night with his straight 97 MPH fastball. These same people apparently dont watch much major league baseball though because they are too busy telling us how erik kratz and scott mathieson and rich thompson should be on the phillies hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

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        1. In their defense–Sardinha,Baez and Martinez were. I believe the three you are laughing at would have performed better than those three.

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    2. I’m seeing $2m per plus incentives to be the Giants closer. Good for him. That kind of deal will set him up for life. We’ll need to remember to peek in at him from time to time next year

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    3. Alan, nice post about Scott Mathieson and I hope he does well over in Asia also. I will always remember his persistance in overcoming two TJ surguries to make the Phillies even if it was not for a long time. Good luck in the rest of your career Scott.

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  26. Hey, phuturephillies: I was wondering if you could maybe do a small write-up on Adam Worthington, the guy the Phillies got in return for Zagurski?

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    1. He’s 24 5’9″ 180LBs in 3 seasons he has 157 IP k/9 is 9.6 BB/9 is 3 WHIP 1.35. I can’t find anything on how hard he throws but he must have decent stuff. They say he was old for his level of play and thats about it.

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      1. Ah yeah I saw his stats and height (was more than a little bit surprised he was as short as he is) but I had no idea he was old for his league. I would think that he’d have to throw hard to succeed at his height but then again I could easily be wrong. Should be interesting to follow him nonetheless.

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    1. Depends on what they’d have to give up and what, if anything, can be done with Blanton. I definitely wouldn’t mind him at the back of the rotation.

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      1. I would mind. He’s out of shape. He’s getting old. He can’t even throw 90 anymore. He’s not cheap. He’s a bad influence in the clubhouse (I think he and Hamels aren’t friends, to be polite).

        Please, let him stay away.

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  28. Here is a scenario to kick around. Suppose Madson decides to take Arb and come back on a 1 Year Deal then enter back into the FA pool in 2013 where the market for closers could be better.

    What would you do with 2 closers?

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    1. Under that scenario we would have Mad Dog in the 8th which would essentially mean that if starters get through 7 with a lead we have a win 🙂

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    2. DMAR, let me ask you a question in return. Who is your setup man right now? Normally, one would think Bastardo, but do we really know whether we are going to get the early season Bastardo or the late season Bastardo?

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      1. As of now I trust Bastardo to fill that role until he proves otherwise its his job to lose. He was flat out nasty against both Left and Right handed batters.

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    3. IF Madson would except arbitration I expect he would be an easy trade. There are many teams that would be willing to pay Madson $11m for 1 season to be their closer.

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      1. With the new CBA the team that acquires him would not get compensatory picks so his value would be slightly down from typical trade deadlines.

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        1. For teams looking for a closer, the prospect of paying Madson $11m for 1 season is much better than paying Madson $44 million for 4 years, which is what the rumored Phillies offer was for.

          Figure the Texas Rangers are paying Joe Nathan around $7M per season for 2 years (plus some incentive clauses) and he’s coming off of serious surgery..

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          1. I wonder if Madson could get 11mm thru the arb process. Soriano had a similar year in 09 and he unexpectedly accepted arbitration from the Braves. The Rays were able to trade and sign him for $7mm. Both had similar pitching numbers and both made around the same amount prior to arbitration.

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    1. 3UP is right I would expect him to be a major trade asset at that point. At this point I’m not sure our Loogy is on the roster. I’ll go out on a limb and Diekman may have a shot at that role and or this guy we just signed.

      Some may say Savery I just don’t see him as being that tough on lefties when I watch him pitch.

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  30. The Phillies don’t usually carry a “loogy” in their pen. If everything goes according to plan, Papelbon will be the closer and Stutes/Bastardo will pitch the 7th/8th innings depending on the match-ups in those innings. If Deikman or some other lefty makes the roster it will be because the team thinks they can get out both lefties and righties and are the best options available.

    The last lefty specialist the Phillies had was Scott Eyre in 2008 and even he wasn’t used strictly against left handers

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  31. Personally, I think the most important thing might be re-signing Oswalt for less. He was our most consistent pitcher last year before his injury. Just a freak year really. I’d much rather have him over Blanton. The question is though if he would come back or if he’d rather go elsewhere given that he’s still probably a number 3 at worst on a lot of teams in the MLB.

    Here’s a thought: If we could trade Hamels and some pieces for King Felix, would you do it? If so, what would be the most you would offer Seattle for him?

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    1. Wow. I mean, I don’t know if that trade exists for the Phillies. Seriously, if I were the Mariners I would turn down Hamels/Brown/May/Valle. Hamels is under contract for one year while Felix is signed for three, so that’s no enticement. The Mariners need to build for the future and not even the MLB position players will help, since they’re almost all over 30 now.

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      1. That’s why I said “if”. Personally, I’m not sure there’s anybody I wouldn’t trade for King Felix. I just wanted to see if there’s any limit to what people here would give up to get a pitcher like that who is getting better and is only 25. Guys like that don’t come around very often and as much as I love our pitching prospects, I might even give up Biddle in a package to get him. I would think that we have the prospects to package in order to get him if he can be had. I just don’t know how much we’d really have left in our system after that. We obviously wouldn’t be completely depleted since we have so many guys with huge potential in our system but we’d obviously have to hope that those guys can replace the guys we would have to give up.

        They do kind of owe us after that Lee trade too. Then again, they offered us Saunders and we picked Gillies instead so you can’t really blame them for all of it.

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    2. The trouble is “over Blanton” who unless he shows up in the kind of shape he exhibited in the summer when “there was nothing else to do” is an anchor on the payroll

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      1. Well I’d take him over a lot of pitchers. I just meant I’d much rather have him as a fourth starter than Blanton. I have a feeling that this year he’ll be more of the 2010-early 2011 Roy Oswalt than he will be the 2011 post injury Roy Oswalt. It’s not like it was a pitching-related injury.

        But yeah, Blanton’s contract is not looking too good right now. If they kept him on some sort of a regimen he’d probably pitch a lot better like he did in 2009.

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    3. I’m with you on re-signing Oswalt if the Phils think they can get 175 innings from him. If Oswalt is able to throw 200 innings in 2012, I think he will out-perform Buehrle, Wilson and all the other free-agent starters available this off-season.

      King Felix is a great young pitcher, but I’ll settle for Hamels who is no slouch himself. In fact, Hamels was the better pitcher in 2011. I think the idea of trading Hamels and a number of top prospects for Hernandez makes no sense from the Phils’ perspective.

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    1. Believe that talk is all about bargaining position. Not good negotiating tactics to declare that the team has no other options but to resign Rollins.

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    1. Can the Phils still call him back before the draft? They do have an extra spot on the 40 man available and we can always release Bowker, and probably sign him to a minor league deal if they like him so much, and then sign JRoll or another SS.

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      1. There was a deadline for adding people to MLB and minor league reserve lists and it has passed. They also can not remove people by designating and waiver process till after the Rule 5 draft, as that passed on December 1. I think they might be able to outright release people before the draft, but if they were going to do that, it doesn’t make sense to me that they didn’t remove people before this when they removed others and that they kept them this long. I figure they stick with the current 40 man full roster till after the Rule 5 draft, as the winter meetings start tomorrow.

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  34. Laynce Nix the next step on the flight to mediocrity . How can he start when he can’t hit lefties at all, not even a little bit. How can he PH when any manager in his right mind would change pitchers.
    One good year average wise in which he displayed almost no power.
    Those are some of my objections but TWO years surely you jest Ruben. The bench will be better than last year but that is like saying the best coach on the Eagles.

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