Open Discussion and mailbag questions

Daily Discussion

Hi. Sorry for the infrequent updates of late, but I’ve had a bunch of stuff going on that has been occupying my time. I’m working on a few things, and I hope to have some of it ready to go this weekend, so look for that. Now that we’re in the offseason, there will still be things to discuss, but the posts might be a bit less frequent here, at least until we start doing the Reader Top 30. I’ll try and keep putting up semi-regular open discussion posts for you to discuss whatever is on your mind. I’ll have some AFL thoughts, some Rule 5 thoughts, and other stuff.

Also, its been a while, so I figured I’d do an old fashioned mailbag. If you have questions, email them to phuturephillies at gmail dot com with “Mailbag” in the email title. And I’ll take some of them and provide the answers here in a new post. If you post questions here, I won’t reply to them. Send them via email. Thank you in advance. And now, the time is yours, discuss whatever you’d like.

388 thoughts on “Open Discussion and mailbag questions”

  1. Since this is a free for all: I literally just happened to find an unopened pack of old 1987 Topps baseball cards in my apartment (don’t ask why, and yes, I did try to gum, and no, I do not recommend it.) Anyway, right on top was the card for some guy named Barry Bonds. His 1986 line: 413 AB, .223 average, .416 SLG, 65 BB, 102 K. No OPS of course back there but I figured out it was .746. I feel like all the people screaming that the Phillies should unload Dom Brown should take a look at those very uneven stats and take a very deep breath. Even the greatest player of his generation (please, no ‘roids cracks, look at his insane stats from 1990-98) took a little while to learn the game on the major league level. That’s all. [Spits out 25-year-old gum.]

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  2. Aaron Hill seems to be one of the few FA infielders with any hope of supplying power. Get him in for one year with a very generous option for more. He fits here because he has played all three positions

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    1. I like the idea if he could also play 3rd. I believe he and the DBacks have mutual interest though

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    2. Hill would be great in a back-up role. The problem is that someone is probably going to give him a role as a regular, and pay him accordingly.

      And that’s why the IF back up ends up being a Valdez or a Martinez. Which for most teams wouldn’t be a problem, but for a team with older players as 2B, SS and 3B, the Phillies sure could use a guy who can step in at 3 positions and provide 300 plus quality AB. But those guys are few and far between, and if they are decent hitters usually in a regular role somewhere.

      Don’t get me wrong, unlike many of the suggestions around here lately, this actually makes some sense IF he could be signed for a reasonable contract and wouldn’t mind a bench role. In some ways it is even similar to the Cuddyer suggestion, though Cuddyer is better (and would command a higher salary), which, even though I like the idea, has some similar problems.

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        1. Pick, singular. And Cuddyer would be more than just a bench guy – more the kind of guy that is a regular, but at multiple positions.

          That said, there are reasons why Cuddyer maybe isn’t a good fit – they may not have the money for him, and, even if they do, he may want to go somewhere where he has more of a guarenteed regular position.

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      2. I like the idea, with Hill being a bit like Ben Zobrist and playing fairly regularly, but at a mix of positions to give the older fielders a breather.

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  3. not everyone is going to be an instant star. I doubt Brown suddenly forgot how to play baseball after spending a few years as a top prospect. He’ll be fine (and by that I mean a very good Major League player)

    BRING ON THE TOP 30!!!!

    – Jeff

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  4. Agree on patience with Dom. I think the Phils agree wholeheartedly at this point and realize they made mistakes.To me the only question is whether he is an annual all-star or just a above avg guy, maybe a career like Ibanez. Both of those options are good, IMO. Let him play. Be patient.

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    1. I would be very happy if Brown turns out to be like Ibanez, but with a longer career since Brown is only 24 and Ibanez was 30 before he became a full-season regular.

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  5. I wonder if we sometimes forget Brown was not a highly touted baseball prospect coming out of HS. If I’m not mistaken he was a better Football prospect. So here we are with a late round toolsy OF that catches lighting in a bottle with the bat at every level of the minors all the way to a #4 BA prospect ranking.

    That has to come with a crazy amount of pressure right? The reality is still the same and I’m sure along the way his coaches and scouts talked about possible weaknesses in his game both offensively and defensively. The anomaly of his hitting stats however could not be ignored that is until they were truly exposed at the MLB level. And I’m not talking about anything major.

    If he doesn’t want to fix his swing then he better become a good study and learn where his holes are because that is where big league pitching will attack him.

    I’m hopeful that he can figure it out but I am certainly not going to count on it.

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    1. I think the common belief that his swing is problematic is just wrong. His hitting was fine, except for somewhat below expected power, which was almost certainly a result of the injury.

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      1. His line drive rate was below avg as well, after a time can be attributed to fluky BABIP, but also some mechanical issues, as his hands changed positions quite frequently while he was up with the big club.

        Now I’m no expert, but perhaps some consistency in his stance/swing would lead to some more balls dropping for hits. His approach will automatically be the 2nd best on the team (behind Utley).

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        1. That could also be related to the injury, as he may have been adjusting his swing to gain back lost power, or avoid soreness or other reasons.

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          1. Agree with that, I was just saying it more in terms of His low avg and line drive rate aren’t all due to a low BABIP as it is less of a batter issue, and more of a pitcher issue that bad luck takes part in.

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        2. Depends on how you define approach. Is it on base percentage? Then, yeah, he’d be second… But there’s more to having a great at bat than just obp.

          I’d argue Polanco has the best approach on the team. His baseball IQ is probably second to only Chase Utley on the team.

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        1. eh, who knows…Brown isn’t that far off in my belief, his defense is now behind his bat……I’m hopeful for some big things this spring training, as he will be physically and mentally recharged. Excited for him, as the expectations will surely be down.

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          1. I certainly hope that the Phillies have hired coaches or ex-players(like Garry Maddox -fielding and Greg Luzinski-hitting) to hit balls for him each day for awhile. I really hope that he comes in prepared to take the LF job for good as he provides what the Phillies need in youth, speed and enthusiasm.

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        2. Some guys like Worley and Happ and even Mayberry made out here despite tepid
          support by the coaching staff. Brown is not of that ilk and needs more support or a confidence transplant. Like I said before he was hitting nearly .300 in July so I don’t
          buy the holes in his swing thing. Every player but “TED” came in with holes in his swing.

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          1. It’s all about adjustments, nowheels, To some, Brown didn’t make them fast enough…I do believe he was susceptible to low and inside pitches in the zone but who isnt? His D surely didn’t help his case, and those few baserunning mistakes also left a bad taste, our fanbase is a reactionary bunch. And when the results didn’t add up to the hype, they attack.

            I’m not of the belief that some of Brown’s “swing” issues were all bad luck on balls in play. I do think there are some mechanical things that could be sorted out, but like many young players, it’s a common theme.

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  7. I would really like to move Pence to left. Mayberry would be an improvement in right. Brown while not as good as a right fielder now is at least somewhat comfortable there. Pence has probably topped out as a right fielder and is somewhat erratic. Do I think it will happen “not in a cholly moment”.
    I would love Wright but there is no replacing Worley next year. At least half of the FAs fail. Make a different deal.
    April Infield
    1st Utley/Mayberry/(Thome )
    2nd Utley /Hill
    SS Galvis/Hill
    3rd Wright/Polanco
    LF Pence
    CF Victorino
    RF Mayberry /Brown
    C Ruiz /Doumit
    You could sign Doumit and Hill for Rollins money and have leftovers for Hamels and Madsen or even Oswalt

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    1. Doumit may want a long-term—3 or more– deal…would he settle for a year? Is he at the stage of hios career to do that?

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    2. Read Keith Law today on ESPN site and see how he rates Doumit. For me, he is a frightful amount of $$$ for a part time player at best.

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  8. Oswalt recently quoted as saying “definitely looking for a long-term contract”. I hope Amaro is listening. I’m now convinced that the Phils should offer him arbitration, which isn’t exactly how I felt a few months ago. I think the chances are great that he declines, and even if he doesn’t?

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    1. Would he make more than 16 million in arbitration? If so he may take it….I’d love the draft pick though, but to have him at that type of salary is insane.

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    2. Agree there Steve……nothing to lose actually…..for a year he would be an ideal 4th and if he refuses and signs elsewhere, we can garnish a supp pick, unless the new CBA alters the compensation formulae.

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    3. You’d definitely be stuck with Galvis at SS if Oswalt excepts, no budget for a good FA SS and $15mm+ on Oswalt.

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    4. If there’s no Luxury Tax due to the CBA not being signed last night, I’d take a chance and offer it to him.

      … but he’ll accept arbitration if offered to him, especially if he’s confident in his health. He could turn it into much more guaranteed years and dollars next year in combination with his projected salary for this year.

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  9. You guys make a real interesting point on offering Oswalt arbitration…couple thoughts
    1)Oswalt said he wants a “multiple year deal”…would the Phillies see his bluff and offer arbitration in the hopes of getting a draft pick?
    2)If Oswalt isn’t bluffing AND accepts arbitration…we’re looking a the last 3 years (8-6/13-13/9-10 for Wins and Losses…3.52 ERA and 141 SO’s)….I don’t think that’ll warrant 16 million for a year. If not, then what amount would seem right?
    3)Should/Would the Phils brass and Roy make a “secret agreement” to offer arbitration and have him turn it down for the Type A perks (Good Soldier/Collusion scenario)??

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    1. Oswalt has no real incentive to enter into a “secret agreement” like the one you proposed because it hurts his marketability. Having to give up a pick to get a player makes him a less desireable target, even if just slightly.

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        1. The ‘gentlemen’s’ agreement usually applies to Type B types.

          Another to thing to consider; Oswalt becomes a great trade bait if he accepts. Would he still have trade protection under the CBA as an arb player?

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  10. Aaron Hill would be a great pick-up for the right price. He has gone up and down, but there’s a lot of potential there – he was a 1.7 WAR player in 142 at bats for Arizona last year (Wow!!!). I’d pay him $ 8 million for 2 years with a third year option at $ 6 million in a heartbeat. You may waste some money, but you may have found the perfect replacement for an infield position or, at worst, a very capable supersub who can also pinch hit. If I’m the Phillies, he is really, really high on my list.

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    1. Do you like Hill more than Barmes? I like the fact that Barmes can also play SS which could be a big deal if Rollins leaves and they decide to go with Galvis but want a good plan B. Barmes can also play all over and hit a little.

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        1. Does he though? As I said, he would make a decent back up, but the trend line on his hitting is not comforting. Yes, his horrible 2010 was BABIP influenced, and he’ll probably recover some of his power that he lost in 2011, but I wouldn’t count on a return to the level of 2009 – especially since that season was out of the context of his career.

          Also, Hill versus Barmes is somewhat apples and oranges. Barmes would be a stop gap regular SS, Hill sort of a super sub. Different roles.

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          1. It is a bit of an apples to oranges issue – these players would not be playing the same role. As for Hill’s regression and inconsistency, well, it’s very apparent that, frankly, you have no idea what you are going to get from him. That’s why he would cost $3-6 million and not $9-13 million. But as a supersub with the possible upside of returning to regular status, I like him quite a bit.

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            1. If he can be signed for that money in that role, then yes. I am not sure he can be – could go for more money, and, even if not, may want to go where he can be a regular.

              Interesting thought, if Rollins leaves, is Hill AND Barmes. Maybe pie in the sky, but Barmes as an interim solution at SS and Hill as a super sub is pretty attractive IMO. I’m even thinking that the upgrade of Hill over Valdez/Martinez outweighs the downgrade from Rollins to Barmes. I’d still be worried about the hitting a little, but I’m not sure there is a practical short term fix there given payroll and other issues. And taking 300 to 400 AB away from Valdez and Martinez, and giving them to someone who can hit a little, is significant.

              Interesting data point, albeit small sample size and a fielding metric which is less reliable than a hitting metric: in limited play at 3B, Hill actually grades out as an above average defender. Of course he is also an above average defender at 2B. SS not so much – VERY small sample size, though – but the fact that he can step in there is a plus.

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  12. I only said sign hill last year, now its only a question of money
    He can be had for 6-7 a year for 3-4 years. As demostrated he plays 3rd, with power. Brown must be ttaded. He has nowhere to play but some gm will bite. He cant field,throw or run well. He,s an average hitter. Send him to pittsburgh for neill walker
    . Or better yet to balt. For j.j. hardy. If necesseary throw in another precious prospect. Heres your team. Howard, utley, hardy walker or hill mayberry vic pence. Ruiz and fast track valle imo the one guy with potential stardom. Sign madson! To those of you who remember RIP. Matty alou

    .

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  13. One name that isn’t getting any mention is Grady Sizemore. I know he’s coming off of micro-fracture surgery, but that procedure usually takes a full year to completely rebound. If the Phils sign him to a one year deal and move him to left field it could be a low risk, high reward signing. You can give me him regular rest by floating Mayberry back to the outfield some days or dare I say it with Dom Brown. He would give the Phils more team speed and a new energy that Amaro has been ranting about.

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    1. I had the same thought. My only concern is that Brown most likely ends up in AAA again for the full season, which could be a waste of resources by the Phillies and possible discourage Brown.

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  14. Keep in mind that IF the Phillies offer Owsalt arbitration, they must offer at least 80% of his previous year salary, meaning their minimum offer must be $12.8M. Add in that they have already paid the $2M buyout so in total they would be paying $14.8M for Oswalt in a best case scenario if he accepted.

    There is little chance they offer because is likely he would accept because I doubt he gets any offers that are close to matching a $13M contract for 2012 based on the injury history with his back.

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    1. I’m still not confident he’d accept. I think Oswalt would like to dictate his destination and I also think there might be a strong market for a SP with his credentials. There’s riskier plays out there for teams than a 3-30 offer to Oswalt. Nice play for the Nationals maybe

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        1. Agreed – Ben is a good 5th outfielder for the price and, aside from the fact that he suffered from bad luck, I still think there’s more to Ben than what we’ve seen, which is what made last year so frustrating. There’s no reason I can see to get rid of him, especially since he is such a good soldier.

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  18. Doumit has played a little first and a little outfield,
    Utley/ Doumit works for me at first until…………

    That platoon may keep Howard from rushing back.
    Add Cardenas . That will be my Christmas present.

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  19. I think Diekman could be the Stutes of 2012.

    Here’s what BA said about him during their review of the AFL All Star Rosters: “Lefty has a plus fastball and cross-fire delivery that brings strikeouts and walks”

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  20. Murph thinks Ruben needs to first get David DeJesus for this team to bolster the offensive production. Thats a good thought.

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    1. That seems like a very odd choice … not sure what Dejesus brings that they don’t already have. And his value – he does have some, certainly – is more defensive than offensive. As a hitter, he is a Ben Francisco clone – amazingly so, actually. He’s a better defensive player, but I imagine he’ll cost a lot more than Francisco.

      Pass.

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      1. Believe it or not….witth Raul moving on, Rollins in doubt of returning and Howard on the shelf for who knows how long in the beginning of the season…the teams LHB production comes down to Utley and Vic…..I can only assume he projects DeJesus to take up some of the slack from the port side.

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      2. Dejesus brings plate discipline. His BABIP was the source of his decline last year. Moving out of Oakland and a bounceback should make him a productive hitter again. I like the idea.

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        2. Umm – last year wasn’t THAT far below his career norms. Certainly closer to his career norms than 2010 was in the other direction. Plate discipline is decent but not exceptional, no real power … there is no there there, as a hitter. Below average hitter for a corner OF (yes, I know he has also played center, but wouldn’t play center much in Philadelphia), even using his career norms rather than last year’s numbers. He’s never really BEEN a particularly productive hitter as far as corner OF go (again, as a center fielder he stacks up better, but that doesn’t help of he plays LF). As a back up he would be a marginal improvement over Francisco, because of defense not hitting, but as I said would cost a lot more.

          I mean, I can see a case for going after him even on that basis, but he’s not going to help the offense any and I think there will be higher priorities. Every AB he takes from Mayberry and Brown – and I’m still not entirely sold on Mayberry – would hurt the team offensively.

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        3. Murph added the left-handed bat requirement for DeJesus in today’s edition, He simply overlooked that in yesterday’s persuasive testimony.

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          1. So I’m really interested in hearing just why people think he is an offensive upgrade at all. All I’m hearing here is (a) he’s left handed – which might be relevant if he was a decent hitter for a corner outfielder in the first place, which he isn’t, and (b) reasons why he could “rebound” to his career hitting level – which might be persuasive if his career hitting performance was actually good for a corner OF, which it isn’t. (I’d also be a little worried about the spike in his K rate last year, but my point is that he isn’t much of a hitter even ignoring that fact.)

            Look, as a CF his strong defense, combined with roughly league average hitting, is an attractive package. But for a team looking to use him as a corner OF, not so much. As a corner OF, his power is subpar, his plate discipline is average. His only above average skill as a hitter (and not THAT far above average) is his BA, driven by good contact skills. His value is driven by his defensive skills and ability to play CF.

            Now, if he could be had for, say, 2 years @ 4 million per year, sure, go for it. As a fourth OF, he would be a slight upgrade over Francisco (we’re assuming Brown is in AA, unfortunately, and Mayberry the starting LF). But some team will pay him more as a regular CF. Really just not a good fit for the Phillies, who can’t take much advantage of the fact that he can play a decent CF.

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            1. AAA for Brown, not AA, of course.

              To address the Murphy article directly, I’m not so sure what’s so persuasive. I mean, he’s a local kid. Gee, that will be worth at least 2 wins for sure. Sigh. He does assume he could be signed for 6 million per year – which IMO is higher than the Phillies should go for him given other needs, but not an outrageous suggestion. I’m not saying that this is a horrible suggestion in the realm of Kouzmanoff or Betancourt, but IMO such a signing would prevent other needed moves.

              Of course, all of this would be a moot point if the Phillies weren’t determined to destroy Brown’s career.*

              *No, I don’t mean that literally, I’m not one of the conspiracy theorists around here. But the way they have mishandled his career so far, combined with their intentions going forward, represents an incredible waste of talent.

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  21. It makes no sense for the Phils to offer Oswalt arbitration IF they would be obliged to cut his salary only by 20%…But IF no such rule applies and any offer would be able to be made, then offer him 1/3 of his previous yearly contract for ONE year. IF that could be done, it is unlikely that he’d sign here and with the arb refused, the Phils would get TWO draft picks…one in the first or supplemental draft round and another in the second round. Add in the refusal of J-Roll to accept a 2 year deal (or 3) in arb then they’d get two more early draft choices how high would depend on which team signed him: if a first division team, they’d get a FIRST round draft choice plus a supplemental. The possible loss of Madson would yield–from an arb offer refused–two more high draft choices. The evacuation of our better prospects calls for repleting the losses. These kind of draft grabs would help a lot!

    THAT is how Tampa Bay has built a great farm of better prospects. A good plan!

    P.S. Like others here, I was hoping that Brown would be star in the making whose progress in MLB would be all but certain. We’ve seen him for a few dozen games at the MLB level. We should judge his skills in light of his play. It was horrendous in the outfield making it certain that he would be moved from RF to LF. His speed in the OF was compromised by his inability to track flies well…and he has a too-loose approach in catching the ball with a flapping glove.

    His hitting showed that he could not catch up with a fast ball unless he knew it was coming. His swing adjustments at the plate were terrible when he got breaking balls. He does have a decent judgement on balls and strikes; decent but not really good. His swing is WAY too long and needs to be shortened to get to the hitting zone better/more quickly yet “adjustable” to breaking pitches. His long swing prevents that adjustment. It must be fixed from him to realize his talents…and many hours working on his outfielding.

    There is a lot of potential there; the question is whether it will be realized.

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    1. Its interesting to look at phillies.com and see 32 players on the 40 man, it particularly looked weird to not see Rollins there. By the way I think there is ZERO chance the Phillies offer arb to Oswalt

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    2. There is one big problem with your arbitration scenario with Oswalt. If the Phillies offer him arbitration and make a lowball offer 1/3 of his salary ($5.3M) they are in real danger of having to pay him significantly more.

      As part of the arbitration process, Oswalt also gets to submit his number and the arbitration panel has to decide which number is closer to his market value. So if the Phillies go $5.3m and Oswalt returns with $16M, which number is more likely to be awarded?

      Yes, it would be a gamble for Oswalt but it would be even a bigger gamble for the Phillies to try to low-ball an offer with the hopes that he declines and they get a couple of late 1st round/supplemental draft picks. Instead, they could end up paying a 35-year old pitcher with a bad back $18M for 2012 ($16M contract + $2m buyout).

      Those would be very expensive draft picks even before paying the players drafted.

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      1. There is one big problem with your arbitration scenario with Oswalt. A player’s salary can only be reduced by 20 % in the arbitration process. So , Philly’s offer could be as low as, 12.8 million per season, that’s it. Also, players seldom have their salary reduced, so the likely award would be 16 million plus.
        The scenario of pre-arranged rejection of arbitration, seems unlikely as it may inhibit or eliminate the interest of other teams wanting to sign him, and it works against Oswalt’s interest.

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  22. Zero chance Oswalt gets offerred arbitration. He’s gonzo, unless he’d take a 1 deal under $10 million. Phils have more pressing needs.

    Halladay-Lee-Hamels-Worley-Blanton-Kendrick is an excellent rotation.

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    3. Worley’s going to regress this year.
      Blanton is a huge question mark.
      Kendrick is what he is (a good 5th starter/swing man).

      The first three are great obviously though.

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      1. While I think you can’t expect Worley to be as good he was actually improving his peripherals in the second half of the season. Worley is going to be a low to mid 3 ERA guy again I think. But the thing is the top 3 are so good it really doesn’t even matter.

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  23. Bend it with Beckham….do you think Rays would bite on Freddy Galvis for him straight up? Or would it take a Domo?

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    1. Beckham and Galvis are the same age. Beckham had an OPS of 740 in AA, Galvis was at 726. Galvis has a plus glove. I prefer to keep Galvis.

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      1. However, everything being close to talent-wise equal with both players, Beckham has the proverbial ‘IT’ factor…..and ‘IT’ is something a player has or doesn’t have…like a birthright of some sort. A charismatic leadership quality in other words. The shortstop position–of all position palyers—needs to be ‘the’ leader to some degree, along with the catcher Is it needed to win a WS, probably not, but doesn’t hurt.

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  24. The reason I offered the scenario giving Oswalt an arb figure is so that he REFUSES it and signs elsewhere yielding those high draft choices mentioned. In other words, make an offer he has to refuse (i.e., 1 yr at $4 million) that induces him to sign somewhere else. I don’t want him to re-sign with The Phils: his physical condition is a large caution to his having future MLB success, not a risk that’s worth the candle.

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    1. He could easily counter with a 10-14 mill dollar offer and win the arbitration hearing. The arbitrator picks whichever side is more reasonable and boom his side is more reasonable. If he accepts he ruins any of their chances of having some financially flexibility this year. They have pretty much zero need for Oswalt. So unless it is an extremely high percentage that he shuns arbitration it’s not worth the risk of offering it.

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    2. Arbitration doesn’t work that way.

      When a team offers a player arbitration, it does not stipulate its arbitration figure. If the player accepts arbitration, that means he will play with the team the following season.

      It is at the arbitration hearing that each side presents its arbitration figures. The arbitrator then decides between the two numbers. Both the team and the player are bound by the arbitrator’s decision.

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  25. If it is only a ONE YEAR OFFER, the arbitrator cannot make it into a multi-year deal. Thus, by accepting arbitration Oswalt would be agreeing to a one year deal when he says he wants only an extended multi-year deal. This free agency is likely his last grab at a multi-year deal, in light of his recent physical breakdowns and his age. IMO, he would not accept such a calculated arbitration offer; he’d go elsewhere for that multi-yr deal resulting in the draft choices for the Phils mentioned.

    Play it as it lays.

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    1. Sure, that’s possible, but if you’re Ruben Amaro, why do you risk this? There’s a very real chance that you end up being Roy Oswalt a total of $14-18 million for one year, especially if he’s getting 2 year, $18-20 million offers from other clubs (very, very possible). Do the math – $16 million for one year and an opportunity to increase his market value or $18-20 million for 2 years. If I were him, especially given my reluctance to play many more years, I’d go for the big pot this year and let the situation play out. Even if I got a $7 million one year contract the next year, I’d still come out ahead.

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    2. if he accepts the arb….he could also be moved in July to an American League contender.
      He becomes a valuable chess piece to replenishment the farm.

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      1. Yes, assuming he’s healthy and pitching well. But if that were the case, why would the Phillies, who should be in playoff contention, trade one of their starting pitchers?

        Plus, the the Phillies do have a budget. Getting Oswalt in arbitration for $16M will mean that they trim their opening day roster elsewhere. And all of this just to get a couple of draft picks? Wouldn’t it be easier just to spend a few million in the international FA market vs. risking blowing up the budget to gamble on what Oswalt might be planning?

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  26. from rumors
    “Bob Garber, the agent for C.J. Wilson and Roy Oswalt, tells Andrew Marchand of ESPN New York that both his clients would enjoy pitching in New York and fit in well with the Yankees. We’ve heard, however, the Yankees are worried about Oswalt’s injury history and aren’t willing to go all-out to sign Wilson.”
    sounds like a double edge sword

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    1. Cashman has one eye on Darvish….plays it close to the vest…..CC is back, plus they want to move Burnett…but no takers. Their starting pitching staff will be revamped, so Wilson and Oswalt could factor in at some point.

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  27. BA’s Phillies top 10
    1. Trevor May, RHP
    2. Jesse Biddle, LHP
    3. Sebastian Valle, C
    4. Jonathan Pettibone, RHP
    5. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
    6. Freddy Galvis, SS
    7. Justin De Fratus, RHP
    8. Brody Colvin, RHP
    9. Jiwan James, OF
    10. Maikel Franco, 3B

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    1. Well, Freddy Galvis at # 6, stands out a bit, because numerous on here, filtering down from the top, could not find a spot in the top 3o for Galvis. Had him around # 20 and took much disagreement on that from lots. Don’t see the name Cesar Hernandez ahead of him either.
      Get it together.
      Maikel Franco. Recall when Bill Conlin had Franco at #2 and people railed, filtering down from the top, that Franco did not belong in top 30. Imagine, Conlin basing player evaluations on actual seen evaluation, rather than reading some stats, what a freaking idiot.
      Get it together.

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      1. Wow Marfis, incredible selective memory. On Galvis, I don’t recall your position, but certainly a lot of people – stat people and others – were low on him. If indeed you had him at 20, congratulations, you are now batting about .050 on predictions by my count.

        But on Franco – there your memory is just dead wrong. Conlin took some shite on these boards for his prediction, it’s true, but many of us – disportionately the stat oriented people on the board – agreed at the time that he was a very interesting prospect that deserved to be highly ranked, certainly top 30, possibly top 10, if not perhaps quite as highly as Conlin ranked him.

        Not to beat a broken record, but the stat oriented people on this board have a much, much better predictive record than most people on this board, partly because they DO incorporate subjective evaluations. The group with the worst record on this board are the people who look at raw stats, unadjusted for context, defense or age/level, who ironically ALSO ignore scouting reports. Matt Rizzotti, anyone? Not saying that you fit that mold Marfis – say what you want about your evaluation skills, bad as they are, but you do manage to be wrong in a particularly unique manner.

        Like

  29. The Phillies won’t, and shouldn’t, take a risk on offering Oswalt arb. Let’s assume the risk that he takes it is low. Even so, if he does, it would put a huge monkey wrench in the Phillies’ off season plans. Depending upon other unknowns (arb awards or long term contracts to Pence and Hamels, willingness of the ownership to increase the out of pocket payroll to close to the luxury tax threshold) it could basically prevent the team from addressing one of it’s key needs, closer or SS.

    And I know a lot of people around here want them to go with an internal option at closer, but it won’t happen. If Oswalt is offered and accepts arbitration, and a closer is signed for a market contract, forget about all of the interesting free agents we are discussing in this thread. No stop gap SS – it’s Galvis, sink or swim – no 3B option (not that there likely would be anyway), no supersub infielder (hello 300 plus AB to Valdez or Martinez), no OF who can step in if needed (not a high priority IMO anyway, but some people disagree). Again, some uncertainty here as indicated above, but it would be foolish to risk decreasing payroll flexibility further for a 4th or 5th starter.

    Like

    1. You guys are still discussing this? It’s OK to change your opinions here. At this point it is certainly reasonable to think the Phils offer arbitration to Oswalt. Not to say it will definitely happen, but it could, and it would make alot of sense if it did.

      I personally think its the right move. Worst cases, 1yr of Oswalt looks extremely attractive to pitching straved teams come March. Though we wouldn’t have him in March, because he’s smart and won’t accept anyway, as he shouldn’t. I have officially started the ‘Extend Arb to Oswalt’ club

      Like

      1. The only world in which offering Oswalt arbitration is a reasonable option is a world where the Phillies have no payroll constraints. We don’t live in that world (and if we did, we would sign him to a 2 year contract instead).

        Like

        1. Every team in MLB has payroll constraints. I’m not saying it’s a no-brainer, but its certainly worthy of consideration.

          I want to see PP’s site blow up next summer when the Phils have 4 or 5 1st or Supp rd picks. Arb to Os helps me fulfill that dream. Let me live it for a few more weeks

          Like

    1. It is bad in that none of them are studs who are really polished or with star potential (but it’s not like those players were there to pick). But it is good when you look at that list which is 7-8/10 at AA or higher all still with good upside. I just can’t argue any of them higher than franco

      Like

      1. Have to disagree that polished players with star potential weren’t there to be picked. Jackie bradle Jr went one pick after Greene, he surely would have made their top 10.Tyler Goeddel, kevin Comer, trevor Story, and Grayson Garvin are also guys picked after Greene in the comp round that woul have made the top ten list.

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  31. Here’s something that may be of interest to some on here ( the Emilio Bonifacio advocacy and hero worship faction). ESPN in their SportsCenter highlight feature Bottom Ten (seen near the end of the hour) features a clip of Emilio playing RF in an exhibition in Taiwan. Let’s say he did not excel on that play. Now, as a way of background, when I said They would need to find a defensive hiding place for Bonifacio (which was immediately changed to “hiding place on the roster” by the self appointed, which is a whole different thing) that statement was met with criticism and said laughter. Check out the play on the ESPN highlights, imagine this in a regular season MLB game in Philly, Still Laughin’?

    And now the rootkit of the whole Bonifacio controversy to begin with, has taken on as a client, Ryan Doumit. I say Doumit has deficiencies as a C, and if taken on would not be used much as a Catcher, so those back-up Catcher scenarios don’t cut it for me, as a 1B-OF 3rd Catcher option maybe, if he likes a minimum or near-minimum salary.
    Anyway, Doumit , like the aforementioned Bonifacio, has deficiencies which do not reveal themselves on a stat sheet, or to put it another way, It is totally beyond your comprehension.

    And another thing, The Doumit-ful roster projection above, also contains some questions.
    Aaron Hill is a regular player and should find a regular position, and should not be looking for a utility job.
    The presence of David Wright on there, (though I did not look closely enough to see where this developed) earned that list the subtitle: how I upped the payroll to 200 million plus.

    Like

    1. marfis,

      The leading advocate for both Doumit and Bonafacio, and the author of the list you are critiquing, is nowheels, Say what you want about nowheels, who IMO has his blind spots but is a much improved poster, he is NOT one of the stat guys by any means. I was probably the only person to give any support for the Bonifacio advocacy, but it was of the “well, he would make a decent back-up” (which he would) variety; obviously he is viewed as more than that by the Marlins, and would be too costly to acquire for that role.

      And that’s what I think is hilarious, You have such an aversion for the stat oriented people that every silly, or arguably silly, suggestion gets blamed by you on the stat guys, even when they aren’t the ones making the suggestions or predictions. For example, the stat oriented guys are universally against acquiring Wright.

      You are probably right about Hill, I said much the same myself, but certainly the Phillies should at least check in with his agent.

      Like

    2. Compared to our bench player Bonifacio is freaken Babe Ruth. Compared to ahy of our backup catchers, Doumit is freaken Ted Williams. Besides the ability to play other position and HIT is why he fits. And backup catcher is much easier than everyday which we have.
      And what is with the Aaron Hill pity, If he proves worthy he will start.
      Please stop. Wright for Worley etc weakens a strength that is probably be weaker.
      And please don’t seen say some problematic FA can fill in

      Like

  32. The Phillies have a dearth of 3rd base prospects, actually a dearth of position player prospects in general. Today’s list of minor league free agents came out and a lot of the Triple re-treads of the Phillies were on the list. I noticed that Mike Costanzo was a minor league free agent as well. Since we’ve got nothing at 3b anyway, why not sign him for Lehigh Valley? It would give us something to talk about at least.

    Like

  33. Maybe the Nationals will sign Roy Oswalt…..that will be two years in a row that we can get a high pick via the Nationals.

    Like

    1. I love it, he’s exactly what the Phils need for their locker room and would be a great bench player and may be an adequate first baseman if Howard’s gone. We’ll see about that in Spring Training I guess.

      Like

  35. Oh no…….Tyson Gillies tweeted he’s on his way to see a specialist in Nebraska during the AFL break. Not sure what does is all about. Lets hope it is precautionary.

    Like

  37. Jim Thome, for 1.5 million$ is a GREAT signing.

    I would love to see Greg Dobbs back, can fill in at 3rd, LF and 1st.
    That would be the beginnings of an awesome bench – Thome, Mayberry / Dobbs

    Like

  38. Jim Salisbury reports that the Phillies are in hard on Cuddyer. I’m not sure how I feel about this. He’s certainly a good player and is versatile, but he’s old and doesn’t play any position well. I think he will get a 3 year deal, which may leave Domonic Brown out of the mix.

    He would be very helpful this season, but he’s only going to get worse and start blocking younger players, all at a $10 million (or so) salary. I wouldn’t go more than two years as a super sub.

    Like

    1. I was an early advocate of a Cuddyer signing. I’ve backed off a little on that, but there’s no doubt that, in the short term anyway, he is a great fit for the Phillies. A lot depends on (a) role, and (b) salary. If he ends up being slotted in as the left fielder, then no, for the reasons you state and other reasons. If he ends up being a guy who isn’t the “regular” at any position, but ends up getting 500 AB at a variety of positions, including 2B and 3B, filling in for injuries and resting older players, he could be a fantastic pick up. A lot depends on his continued ability to provide at least adequate defense at 2B and 3B.

      In 2011, the Phillies gave a total of 769 PA to Valdez, Martinez, Gload, Orr and Bowker, mostly at 1B, 2B and 3B. If 500 to 600 of those AB went to Cuddyer instead, that’s an extra 2 or 3 wins, even considering Cuddyer’s sub-par defense.

      Certainly if they could get him at (say) 2 years @ 8 million per year they should. Probably it will look more like 3 @ 10 million per, which is a closer call, though they paid Ibanez that much and Cuddyer is younger, better, and more positionally flexible than Ibanez at the start of his contract. Granted that “better than Ibanez” is a low bar.

      Like

      1. I AM aware that he played less 2B in 2010 and no 3B. At some level you need to trust the scouts; I have to assume that, if the Phillies are going after him in a big way, their scouts are convinced that he can still play 2B and 3B. At the risk of repeating myself, if they are going after him as a left fielder, then that would be a bad signing.

        Like

        1. I was going to respond to Marfis’ marvelous world of predictions, but then thought the better of it and realized I had a lot better things to do with my time (like go to my daughter’s sporting event).

          Anyway, over time, I have begun to share the same concerns about Cuddyer. Not because he’s a bad fit (he’s a pretty damned good fit), but because I am concerned that Ruben will overpay him, give him too many years, and Charlie won’t use him the right way – the same concerns that you have mentioned. I am also concerned that, at a time when the team needs to be getting younger, Cuddyer would be yet another older, expensive player on the payroll. Again, not a big deal if it’s the right contract, he is used correctly and the team otherwise takes steps to get younger (something they clearly did not do when they acquired the beloved Jim Thome, whose a great guy, but is truly middle-aged – not baseball middle-aged, real life middle-aged).

          Like

    2. There are a couple of interesting points in the Salisbury article. He suggests that Thome would only play first in an emergency situation, which frankly makes me wonder what the point of the signing was. He also seems to be pushing Cuddyer more for 1B/OF (though he does mention 3B – doesn’t mention 2B). That could just be his spin, but if he is repeating what he was told by his “sources” that’s a little concerning.

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      1. They say a lot of crap Larry. It depends on how Thome shows up at ST when he knows he might play on the field.

        Like

    3. Maybe they can reopen the old Naval Home or at least get him an apartment there were he can be comfortable. One million is the limit on anyone over 30.

      Like

  39. You know, there is an oft-repeated theory on here, that I have made incorrect predictions. Could have responded in reply to others above as a response but I decided to , at least, start it at the bottom of the page, so as this more accurate assessment might blow the cobwebs from the mind of more people. If it is the case that inaccurate predictions were made, why, (despite the best efforts of a faction of the “brain trust” on here), has there never been an accurate full transcript of said false proclamations?

    To the best of my memory: I will only admit to 3 false predictions, 2 with rationalizations that dispute if they are indeed inaccurate at all.
    1. The call-up of certain minor league Utility Infielders following the 2009 season. I believe these predictions were borderline on the speculative what they should have done category since I stated more options than one, But the writing may have been unclear, and since they added no player of that category I’ll cop to that one.
    2. In last season’s breakout for next season story, I inaccurately predicted Edgar Duran as such, which did not happen. I’m going to blame that on injuries, and since I have subsequently re-submitted Duran as next season’s break-out player, that could easily be classified as “yet to be determined”.. Getting that right is an extreme long shot I would say.
    3. I did not recall at first , but in a previous offseason, I predicted Bernardo Solarte as the breakout player, never happened, since been released. But that could also fall into the long shot of the breakout player deal.

    Things falsely attributed as false predictions fall into broad categories:
    1. The selective re-printing of half-sentences half-phrases which were not predictions when seen in full context.
    2. Predictions, which though roundly criticized by the brain trust have an outcome which is yet to be determined.
    3. Things which were not properly called predictions, but were evaluations not agreed with by some, see Cameron Rupp, et.al.
    4. Things which were not predictions, but speculative analysis. Such as the ten or so possible players which might go in the Pence deal (who makes a prediction which would be counted as accurate with ten possibilities? Or the offseason trade speculation which involved 3 teams and had as a small part of it, Bowker coming to Philly (this part was hailed as lunacy so I took the time to point out it wasn’t) . Too much improbability to be a prediction. ETC.
    5. Other miscellaneous fallacies.

    To counter balance the admitted false predictions above, I submit the following:

    1. After the 2008 season, I was virtually the only one to say that Pat Burrell and Jamie Moyer would not and should not be offered arbitration. I even called the salaries to the point 5 million for one season for Burrell and 8 million a season for Moyer. They each would have garnered 16 million a piece in arbitration. The majority opinion would have wasted 19 million on this episode, so that should count 19 million in my favor. And since this was opposed by virtually everyone , I should get extra credit.
    2. Predicted Joe Savery on the MLB roster by the end of this season. Since this was opposed by virtually everyone, I should get extra credit.
    3. Last year’s signing of Pete Orr, though described by most all as a AAA bench candidate, I said an MLB bench candidate.
    4. A mere couple of weeks before the promotion of Brian Gordon to MLB, noticed the extreme pitching efficiency and stated he was a candidate for MLB. Criticized by some.
    5. Since I was chided for the Bowker thing, I’ll include it here, though not part of a prediction.
    6. In the 2008 season, stated Carlos Ruiz would be a competent MLB hitter along with a couple of others I can’t recall. About the only one who thought that.
    7. Had Steve Susdorf as break-out candidate one offseason, minor league wise , I’ll claim that.

    There’s been so many that came through I possibly missed one or two.
    About the only predictions I have outstanding are these and they are looking good.
    1. I was about the only one to say Freddy Galvis would be an MLB regular, while many (the majority) said he would never even get an appearance in MLB.
    2. I had one that Derrick Mitchell would make an appearance on an MLB bench before the players listed on last season’s top 30.(Brown had already appeared then) and that would be Gillies, J. James, Collier, Leandro Castro, Miguel Alvarez, and Kelly Dugan. The case can be made that he is ahead of all of them.
    3. Have it that Anthony Hewitt will someday appear on an MLB roster because of HR and SB potential, as opposed to walk ratio fetishists , who say it is impossible.

    So, there you have it. All the predictions I can recall as to past and future. They have been few in number, judicious , and wildly accurate.

    Like

    1. I wasn’t around here for much of that, some of it I don’t recall, and I also seem to recall some other bad predictions that you don’t include. But whatever, I don’t have the time or energy to go back and look through the archives. I’ll leave it to others who have more time or a better memory to respond.

      But I do want to point out that, of your three “outstanding” predictions, only one is “looking good” – the Galvis prediction (and even there, regular status is not a sure thing, and the “majority” predicted at least an eventual bench role). As for Mitchell, (a) you’re leaving out some of the better players on last year’s list, (b) it’s far from certain that he will ever have even a bench role – IMO he actually took a step backwards as a hitter last year, considering context, and (c) a top 30 list is not the same as a prediction of who will hit the majors first. The other guys that you list are all better prospects than Mitchell. If Mitchell, older and at a more advanced level than those other guys, makes the majors first, so what? I don’t think anyone was debating you on that specific, not very relevant, point.

      As for Hewitt, the fact that he stunk marginally less last year than he had stunk in prior years doesn’t make your prediction “look good.” Of course you set a pretty low bar for yourself – mere appearing on a MLB roster. First rounders sometimes end up getting a cup of coffee even when they otherwise don’t merit it. I consider it extremely unlikely that even that low bar will be cleared, but the real question is this: will he ever contribute meaningfully to a major league team? The answer to that is certainly zero or close to it.

      Now, in the extremely unlikely event that Hewitt does contribute meaningfully to a major league team, then you will indeed have something to brag about. But I could probably name 60 prospects in the Phillies’ organization that have a better chance to contribute meaningfully in the major leagues than Hewitt. And frankly that’s even more true now than a year ago, because the only way Hewitt can do that is to have a breakout year, and every year that passes without that makes it less likely to happen. If he continues improving at the rate he improved last year, he won’t have major league skills until he is approximately 140 years old.

      Like

      1. To just expand upon the BB comment – it’s wrong on a bunch of levels IMO, but let’s concede that, in theory, a guy who can steal bases and hit some HR could have bench role even with a ridiculously low BB%. But the problem is that he is never going to have even limited success as a hitter against good pitching with a BB% that low – good pitchers will simply never give him anything to hit. The exceptions – players with very low BB% that have even limited major league success – are pretty much exclusively good contact hitters. Hewitt is … not that.

        So we’re left with a guy who can steal bases. Modern major league rosters don’t have room for players who are limited to that role.

        Like

        1. Just for fun …. last 20 years, outfielders, were there ANY players with a BB/K ratio as bad as Hewitt’s who had a meaningful major league career? Well, it depends upon how you define “meaningful.” Edgard Clemente is probably your best candidate – struck out almost 3 times as often as he walked (his major league BB/K data is almost identical to Hewitt’s minor league totals last year), yet had 270 major league PA.

          But here is the punch line – look at Clemente’s minor league numbers, before and after his brief major league career. Just blows away Hewitt’s minor league performance. Including his BB/K data.

          Hewitt = no prospect. Marfis, if you are right about this one (and by right, I mean a meaningful major league career, more than just a cup of coffee) then ABSOLUTELY you have a right to brag.

          Like

          1. Almost 10 times as often (K versus BB0, that should be. Three times as often is not good, but managable, and plenty of players have had meaningful careers with that ratio.

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            1. The best hitter with a 10:1 K/BB ratio was Carlos Zambrano. While he can hit some, he wouldn’t be a major leaguer if he couldn’t pitch. 7:1 gives you Ivan Murrell. 6:1 and you finally get a regular, Miguel Olivo. You really need no worse than a 4:1 K/BB ratio to even get the players who were infamous for their plate discipline. Tony Armas, Shawon Dunston, Cory Snyder.

              And Marfis, I don’t really care if your predictions are right or wrong. They’re not interesting.

              Like

            2. Not interesting eh’, Well that’s interesting. Seems the source of the not interesting Derrick Mitchell prediction was your flat dismissal of some guy’s floating of Derrick Mitchell in the last top 30 predictions list.. I did not have Mitchell in my top 30 list, but I pointed out that Mitchell would likely appear on an MLB roster prior to the stalwart OF’s placed ahead of him on the list by others. So, your material was the root of the Derrick Mitchell to MLB prediction. So, if the reply to a source is not interesting, the source itself is even less interesting, so I will take that as an admission on your part.

              The other not interesting stuff, came ,usually, as a response to others, who flatly stated that such events would never happen, and, at the time I made such predictions, it was widely believed by anyone who submitted an opinion that it would never happen. So, if people did not sate things I disagreed with, I would not state a prediction that would disprove it. And , as above, if a rebuttal to a source is not interesting, the source itself is even more uninteresting, And , if people would not disagree with what I say, I would not be able to point out the numerous times I was right, and everyone else was wrong. It’s getting to be old-hat anyhow.

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            3. marfis,

              The main point about Mitchell is that your “prediction,” if you made one, is not closer to realization now than it was then. If anything he regressed mildly in 2011, controlling for context.

              But the other point, which you don’t even seem to grasp, is that a prediction that Mitchell would one day be on a major league roster is not some radical, against the grain position. The consensus then and now on this site that that he has a shot at such a role at some point (granted some people think it’s a long shot). Now, SOME people went further, and started touting Mitchell as a guy who could step in as a regular at some point. THAT was the opinion that got ridiculed, and rightfully so.

              It’s true that most people correctly rejected the notion that the fact that Mitchell might end up spending some time on a major league roster at some point was a good reason to put him on a top 30 list.The fact that Mitchell has an upside of a major league back up does not merit ranking him a head of guys who are further from the majors but who have a much higher upside.

              Like

    2. Marfis
      Why do you give a tweet what some say? e.g. I took a lot of abuse when I said to move Knapp up and LIMIT is innings. It didn’t hurt a bit
      Sometimes we are right. Sometimes not. Either way we get paid the same amount.

      Like

    3. marfis…so it comes down to three distinct and separate categories….’predictions’, ‘speculative analysis’ and ‘evaluations’. Ensure you preface your post/comments with whichever is relevant so as not to confuse the casual reader.

      Like

  40. Aumont for Cardenas. Let get rid of this guy while the getting is good . I believe where there is smoke there is fire. Lets face it they dumped a bunch of knuckleheads on us

    Like

  41. Cuddyer is not a good signing for the Phils. He cannot be an everyday or partially everyday 2nd or 3rd baseman. If we get him he will be playing 1st (until Howard gets back) and OF. Cuddyer will be receiving at least a 3 yr 30 mill contract and I just think that is a terrible contract to get into for him. It might make sense for this coming year but after that it’s just dumb. Phillies should get Betemit or Dobbs or Hill (some mentioned him) to spell Polly this next year and then readdress 3rd base in next offseason. I just think the contract Cuddyer will get is an awful lot for a guy who doesn’t fit into the teams plans past next year.

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    1. Unfortunately Chris you will not like this….but he may be signing this week. Thome could be a recruiter of sorts for him.

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    2. Yeah I saw it on MLB trade rumors. Supposedly Amaro is taking a get him at any cost approach. If they want to play a 30 something year old guy 12-15 mill a year over the next 3-4 years why not offer that to Rollins and sign a utility player that can actually play the positions you need him to. Cuddyer can’t really play 3rd or Left anymore because he’s deaf in his left ear.

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    3. Actually I don’t see a signing of Cuddyer as a bad one. He would give us a right handed bat. He provides some power and he can play several positions. Sort of the way Michael Young plays for Texas.

      Like

      1. You don’t think Cuddyer for three years at 12-15 mill per would be a bad idea? He doesn’t play good D at any of his positions. He’s expensive and he will be hitting his decline rather soon. Michael Young and Cuddyer are not comparable at all. Young is far and away a better hitter.

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          1. He made 10.5 mill last year and he had his best year as it pertains to WAR. A lot of people are interested in him. He will be getting a raise. Even if he just stays at his current price I wouldn’t want him.

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        2. Agree about the hitting part…just meant that they can start him at multiple positions like Michael Young. Michael Young is not a strong fielder either. They plugged him (Young) in all over (some in at 1b, 2b, 3b, and even a game at SS). The position he played the most is DH. I can see Cuddyer playing LF, RF, 3b, 2b, 1b, and RH DH for interleague games.

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          1. Except he’s deaf in his left ear and doesn’t play the left side of the field anymore because of it. The two positions he plays most often is RF and 1B. Pence doesn’t need Cuddyer to be taking up his playing time. First base is only available for as long as Howard is out. As soon as Howard is back Cuddyer will be playing first almost never. So the only other positions left for him to provide value is 2nd I guess. But As long as Utley is in Cuddyer won’t be playing there and I’m not even sure how effectively he could play 2nd in a long absence.

            You get this guy and it will probably mean bye bye SS or bye bye proven reliever or both.
            It will also mean that the Phillies will continue to get older when they have a platoon of
            Mayberry/Brown that could probably be almost as effective as Cuddyer at about 1/10th the cost

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            1. Perhaps the FO has a far grimmer prognosis for Howard than is publically known? In that context, signing Cuddyer would make a ton of sense. The best case scenario is that Howard is back sometime before the AS break. The reality is that he could very well miss the entire season.

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            2. There are issues with a Cuddyer signing, but this is almost certainly a non-issue. He has been deaf in his left ear his entire career, and it hasn’t stopped him from playing 1400 inning at 3rd base. We should know from following Gillies that there are alternative ways to signal players who can’t hear. Moreover, even I, quite critical of Amaro, have enough faith in the Phillies’ front office to be pretty certain that they wouldn’t be going after him to play only RF and 1B.

              It’s possible he can no longer play 3B and 2B effectively for other reasons, which would be a concern. I would be shocked if he wasn’t able to play LF.

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            3. Chris, the Phillies are trying to change their team attitude away from the Rollins/Victorino “we can turn it on anytime”thinking to a more disciplined and professional approach. Maybe NEPP is right in that Ryan is really going to be out longer than we think and Cuddyer can play 1B solidly there. As far as Cuddyer in RF goes maybe Pence goes to CF if Victorino is traded. This still allows a Brown/Mayberry platoon in LF.

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            4. FWIW, Cuddyer has been deaf in his left ear since Age 11. Its hardly something that just cropped up and forced him to stop playing those positions.

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    4. To me, the Cuddyer thing looks all too familiar. Ruben picks “his guy,” an aging veteran, early on in the free agency period, then goes after him too aggressively and winds up overpaying in either years or dollars or both. Exactly like with Ibanez and Polanco. You’d think he would have learned from those contracts.

      Not that Cuddyer’s a bad player. I just wish RAJ would take his own advice and take a more patient approach, let the market establish itself.

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        1. I don’t think your question can be answered until next month.

          There has been talk that there will be changes in the compensation for free agents under the new CBA.

          The current CBA expires December 11. Since the deadline for players to accept arbitration is December 7, I assume that the compensation for this year’s free agents will be covered by the new CBA which should be in place by December 11.

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      2. “Exactly like with Ibanez and Polanco. You’d think he would have learned from those contracts.”

        No offense, but this is a ridiculous comment. Polanco’s contract is one of the best the Phillies have signed over the last few years. Operating at nowhere near peak capacity, Polanco drew a 3.9 and 2.8 WAR over the last two years. Which means his value was about 6.7 over two years, or somewhere between $30-35 million. He has a 3 year, $18 million contract. He’s been a huge bargain and there’s a good chance he performs as well or better next year if he’s healthy.

        Polanco may not be a big star, but he’s a very good player and a definite bargain.

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  42. If you don’t sign Cuddyer give me the alternate options. The Howard injury puts you in a pickle jar. I don’t like Mayberry as a viable option to be an every day 1B until Howard gets back and why would you when he is such a + OF.

    I would have preferred going after Derek Lee on a 1 year deal instead of Thome because he can play 1B very well every day and still give you solid professional at bats. When Howard does come back you can give him more nights off against lefties to ensure he is fresh at the end of the season.

    Back to Cuddyer I like everything about him except for his age and probably the type of deal it will take to get it done. Meaning he is perfect for a 1 Year Deal its the 2 and 3 years that you should fear. In the end though when you have a WS window its the kind of move you are forced to make.

    And finally can we get a new hitting coach to infuse some energy into these players. It be nice to ssee a younger former player digging into the guys that need it.

    Like

    1. The Thome signing does not preclude a Derrek Lee signing. The Phils could use a couple of power bats. Howard may miss most of 2012 and may not be very productive when he does return.

      I actually prefer Lee over Cuddyer. Lee will be cheaper and could be signed to a one-year deal. Lee is still pretty good defensively at 1B. If and when Howard returns, Lee could platoon with Howard and be a late-inning defensive replacement.

      Like

      1. Agree. We need a guy like Lee/Cuddyer for half a season to a season until Howard is back. I think Cuddyer would be an expensive liability beyond 2012.

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      2. Can’t have a 5-man bench with 2 players who are strictly 1b/dh players in Lee/Thome. Add in a back-up catcher and they only leaves 2 positions available to carry players who can backup the other 6 positions.

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            1. I don’t think anyone knows for sure but I think you err on the side of caution. It would really surprise me if he was back in June and playing to a level we are used to seeing.

              I also disagree I think a Thome signing definitely rules out a Lee signing. It also doesn’t sound as if we’ll land Cuddyer. it sounds as if there are more than a few suitors that could be willing to go 4 Years $45. I wouldn’t think the Phils offer more than the Ibanez deal and that would be a stretch.

              Whats wrong with GG? I have no factual knowledge of his style or what the players think about him. What I do know is what we all saw in the past two seasons (playoffs) our hitters do not seem prepared nor willing to adjust their approach for success.

              I could be wrong but it seems they fired Milt over less….

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            2. DMAR……’whats wrong with GG’….LarryM says: November 7, 2011 at 7:15 PM
              Greg Gross retired more than 20 years ago and is almost 60.

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            3. The err on the side of caution would be to bring in an extra corner OF which allows Mayberry to share time at 1B with Thome until Howard returns. That player then becomes an available bench player who can become the 4th Outfielder.

              Signing a Derrick Lee just means that either Thome or Lee would need to be traded/released once Howard was activated, be it in April or June.

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      2. I think he was speaking to my point which suggested maybe a younger more energetic hitting coach the current players could relate to might help change the dynamic. As an example the Cards brought in mcGuire.

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    1. Seems like JRod needs to work to gain that extra 3-4 MPH on his fast ball…Whether a longer stride would aid that is a possible helpful means. Should he gain 3-4 MPH, he’d move up the scale IF his other pitches get refined, too, along with refined command.

      If that sounds like a lot to accomplish, he’s got 2 seasons to get it done at Reading and LV. A very possible accomplishment.

      Potentially he’d be a GOOD and SOLID 3rd starter, behind Biddle and May. Add in Wright in ’13 and we’d have starters getting ready to learn from the remnants of the Big Three.

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  45. Shortstops signed last year comes down to you got what you paid for except Cesar Izturis. Most were resigning.

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  47. Center field …

    I’m not on the “trade Victorino” bandwagon, he was arguably the Phillies’ best position player in 2011, and has a cheap contract for 2012. But he is perhaps the most marketable regular, and is of course a FA after 2012. IMO at that point he will get a contract for more than he is worth given his aging profile. Also there is something to be said for trading a player when his value is at its peak.

    Obviously Cespedes is an intriguing possibility there – though probably a long shot.

    What about Mayberry? Even if his offense last year was a bit of a fluke, he looks pretty good as a hitter compared to other centerfielders. If not a fluke, he is instantly one of the best hitters among CFs in the league. (For fans of WAR, a CF is almost a full win per year more valuable than a LF with similar statistics.)

    The question is, can he handle the position defensively? The normal caution on defensive metrics (which are mixed) is in order, and sample size is low, but there are some positives there. Per UZR, his range as a CF is quite good. His arm and error rate are not so great in CF, but there I think maybe looking at his overall rates in the OF makes sense – IMO the biggest difference between CF and corner outfield is the need for greater range. Error rate shouldn’t vary much, and arm demands are less than in RF, though greater than LF. Looking at his OF play as a whole, his error rate and arm are fine. If he is even an average CF defensively, I’d be very happy with him in that role for the next 5 years.

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    1. I would not be surprised if the Phillies are thinking that as well. If the Phils can move Victorino, they could hopefully get at least one decent position-player prospect in return…and use his money to insure that we 1) lock up Hamels at some point in 2012; 2) have a productive SS for the next couple of years (either Rollins on a high AAV 3-year deal or somebody like Furcal on a 2-year deal) and 3) sign Cuddyer (who will have to play 1B until Howard gets back if Mayberry is in CF).

      The other likely outcome of trading Victorino would be scrapping the whole Brown-in-AAA thing for 2012 and give him a legit shot at being the starting LF. I think it’s worth rolling the bones there…but Amaro’s signing of Papelbon seems to imply a bit of win-now panic, so I don’t know if they will have the stomach to give Brown the chance that they gave Francisco last season.

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  48. John Sickels on Gillies

    **A lot of league observers are really impressed with outfielder Tyson Gillies of the Phillies, particularly on defense where he is showing off a very strong and accurate arm. His rust is showing with the bat, but missing two years with injuries will do that.

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  49. That was the sense I was getting from observers’ random comments. This kid can play baseball and could very well end up being the successor to Victorino in centerfield. But we really need to give him 2 to 3 months of hitting before we make we can even begin to make any judgments about his offensive capabilities. I am very encouraged, however, that seems to be drawing a lot of walks.

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  50. Trading Victorino makes little sense unless you can get a power third base. Bringing in a guy you think can play for more money(problem area) than someone you know can play is borderline insane. This is beginning to look like something personal.
    If you trade Vic better have a backup plan that doesn’t include Gillies.His problems are not talent.

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  51. Well, everyone, it appears that the Madson deal is all but locked up. It sounds like it’s going to be a 4 year contract with a 5th year vesting option and the salary is going to be around $ 11 million per year, which is a little heavy, but not crazy. It’s not crazy for a number of reasons, not the least of which the following: (i) from the perspective of WAR, Madison is roughly going to be around a 2, which means he should be paid roughly his value; (ii) Madson has been an incredibly durable player and has not experienced any type of arm problem or other chronic – he’s a pretty good bet to stay healthy; (iii) while he doesn’t throw as hard as he did in, say, 2008, he’s still a reasonably hard thrower and his change-up has become one of the best pitches in baseball; (iv) if he pitches well and the team’s other young players step it up, they should still be able to move the contract – there is always (and I mean always) some team that needs a viable closer; and (v) although I have no empirical data to support this conclusion, having watched baseball for the better part of 5 decades (ugh, was that out loud?) I can say with some feeling of confidence that bullpens tend to work quite a bit better when there is an established closer at the back end because other players tend to slot into more predictable and slightly less stressful role – having Madson at the end allows the current crop of relievers to slot into their roles effectively and, as far as I’m concerned, makes it less urgent for the team to go out and get multiple experienced relievers this winter (they could use one LOOGY – that’s about it as far as I’m concerned).

    ‘Nuff said.

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    1. I think that’s a significant mistake if that’s what the contract ends up being, especially with Aumont and DeFratus waiting in the wings.* Though not really out of line with his market value.The yearly amount is not crazy, but 4 years for a closer is crazy. I think there is one closer in major league history to whom I would have given a 4 year contract. Interesting question – Rivera aside, has there EVER been a closer contract north of 30 million that has in retrospect been worth it from the team’s perspective? I would bet the answer is no.

      It doesn’t much effect most people’s expectations for the 2012 payroll, as I think most of us had penciled in 10 million for a closer. It does likely mean that, if the Cuddyer rumors are true, we’re looking at not a lot of money left for a SS.

      Not a disaster in and of itself, but IMO continues a worrisome pattern of large, overly long contracts given out by Amaro to players on the wrong side of 30.

      *As a general rule, a 4 year contract that pays a pitcher his “value” is a bad contract, because the risk of injury for even a durable pitcher is so high. And the comment about moving him if one of the young guys comes up big is problematic because either (a) Madson performs well, and won’t be traded – not a horrible outcome, but Aumont and DeFratus will be blocked, eliminating the prospect of filling the closer slot with a below market contract, or (b) Mdson is injured, in which case the contract WON’T be tradeable.

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      1. The Phillies’ pattern clearly seems to be better to lock in a piece at a high price then risk going without. They are not good at letting the market come to them, either signing Ibanez early, signing Polanco early and now signing Madson when a couple better relievers are on the market.

        The money doesn’t worry me. It’s not mine. Normally the years worry me, but in this case it is far easier to adjust the role of a poor functioning pitcher than a position player. Howard for example blocks any player at his position. You can always carry another reliever though. And Defratus, Aumont, Bastardo, Stutes makes it possible.

        Also, this pretty much ensures that Madson goes down as the best reliever in Phillies’ history.

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  53. I didn’t have any complaints about a Madson deal until I read what the terms might be. The per year salary is fine but the years… Rube what are you doing?

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      1. I obviously can’t speak for Chris … myself, I look at the situation on two levels: I think there is an argument, at least, that you should always avoid paying closers market rate contracts, because FA closers are always overvalued. However, I recognize that that is a risky strategy, and thus am somewhat resigned to seeing the Phillies pay closers a market rate. But I would NEVER go more than 3 years (preferably 2 years). Never, ever.

        So yes, one year too long at least – and if the reports are correct, the 5th year is not merely an option, but a vesting option. Depending upon how easily the 5th year vests, it could be 2 years too long. Or even 3, given my preference for a 2 year contract – though the top closers on the market probably will get at least 3, so there again I’m sort of resigned to a 3 year deal.

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        1. But maybe more to the point, it’s a continuation of an undesirable trend – not so much bad in itself, as indicative of a trend that may eventually lead to mediocrity despite the high payroll and other organizational strengths.

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          1. Though to play devil’s advocate, despite the higher risk factor for a pitcher generally and a closer specifically, the downside risk on this contract is certainly a lot lower than (for example) the downside risk on a 125 million contract to a first baseman already in sharp decline.

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            1. Agreed and to be fair, while this may not be the best or most competitive contract, I don’t expect this contract to be a problem, at least over the first 3 years of the contract. If Madson threw all hard stuff, I might not feel this way. But he now gets batters out primarily with some nearly unhittable off speed stuff. I think he’ll be fine, even as approaches age 33 and 34 and I think he’s still going to have trade value.

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          2. Well, yeah, the overall trends are, at some level, very disconcerting. They overpay players regularly, both in terms of money per contract year and number of contract years. They have a penchant for acquiring older players. They seem reticent about giving young players an adequate opportunity to play (see Domonic Brown). They are too eager to trade young players – to the point of it being nearly comical – no current major league team that I know of trades as many projectable young players as the Phillies.

            So, add it up and what do you get? A team that overpays for its players. A team that consistently gets older and more expensive. A team that always seems to be slightly lacking in big league ready talent (everywhere except the bullpen) and that has its best prospects in the mid to lower minors. And a team may not have a reasonable succession plan in place. It is for these reasons that I am growing suspicious of the Cuddyer signing as it makes the team more expensive and older and, moreover, could result in younger players not getting adequate playing time.

            These are things I’m concerned about. We have to wait to see how it plays out. Ruben has not been at the helm for enough years for us to know how he will replace talent on a larger scale, but it’s going to be damned near impossible for him to keep the team in contention by trading away every good prospect that comes down the pike. Other teams who get good and stay good, don’t do this and there’s a reason for that.

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            1. And another thing. I am concerned that Ruben is developing a reputation as an “easy mark” – both in terms of signing free agents and in trading for players. It seems that when he wants something, he goes out and gets it, almost regardless of cost, and teams and agents realize this and are able to hold out for highest price. Look, I defended the Pence trade, not because I felt the Phillies got more value than they gave, but because Pence seemed to be the right fit at the right time for a team contending for a championship. However, they clearly overpaid for him even before Santana became the PTBNL. When Ed Wade outmaneuvers you, it’s noteworthy, and not in a good way.

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            2. I’m not out to defend Ruben but Ed Wade never out maneuvered anyone. As far as our prospect trades go its not like we moved a Buster Posey or a Clayton Kershaw. The closest thing to decent player traded is Michael Bourn and to this point its not like he is some type of game changing player.

              As time goes on maybe Singleton or Cosart prove to have above average careers but again to this point we have not been shafted.

              I like Madson, I like him a lot. I like that he has a tremendous change to get lefties out but let’s face it he is no Mo Rivera so it is all about the money. Had we got him for what we paid Lidge 3 years $37.5 I’d feel much better about it.

              I also think you’re off base about giving younger players an adequate chance. Brown had every opportunity to stake a claim to RF he didn’t deliver. Stutes and Bastardo were given big roles down the stretch. Worley was given an opportunity he delivered and when Blanton was ready to come back Worley held his spot in the rotation.

              So again I don’t think that argument holds any water. Yes we may like some of our prospects but the unbiased view is we havn’t had any blue chippers come through the system in quite a while. Hopefully that is about to change but its up to the prospects. They are the ones that have to push their way to the front of the pack and make everyone take notice.

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            3. DMAR – you should check your research. Cosart and Singleton were and are elite prospects – both in the top 15-40 in baseball. Santana has a very good chance of becoming an elite prospect as he is extremely young. Ruben gave up a LOT for Hunter Pence and, frankly, given what the Braves had to give to get Michael Bourn, a player of similar value to Pence, it is clear that Amaro was, at some level, outmaneuvered. He was desperate and Wade clearly knew this and took advantage of it.

              As for young players, I don’t see how Brown is proof of the Phillies giving young players a chance. To the contrary, Brown has been jerked around over the last 2 years about as badly as any top prospect that I can remember. And, yes, a few pitchers got a chance last year, but, as a whole, the team is aging and it is unclear how they are going to address these issues properly.

              Look, I supported the Pence trade and I am not second guessing that trade. Similarly, many moves made by Amaro are debatably fine in isolation. But viewed together, they show some trends that, over the long run, cannot be sustained. So, on the whole, I am suggesting that Ruben be more balanced in his approach.

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            4. Just my opinion Catch but no prospect is “Elite” in my eyes until they prove themselves at the big league level. BA can build up a guy all they want it doesn’t mean the kid is going to make it.

              And again you are putting it on the Club to give young talent an opportunity where as I put it on the young talent to create their opportunity and seize it. Are you honestly going to say Brown didn’t get an opportunity to take hold of right field? Are you really going to play the crying game that he got jerked around?

              C’mon man this is big boy baseball we’re talking about with Millions of dollars at stake. Losers whine about doing their best while Winners go home and nail the prom queen. We can all name countless examples of prospects that either were or were not so called “Elite” prospects but when given their chance they made their statements they were here to stay.

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            5. I think you’re overplaying this a bit. The only contract Amaro’s given that is overly long and costly is the Ryan Howard extension and potentially the Cliff Lee deal in a couple of seasons.

              I keep hearing about all of these young players who have been traded away rather have been given the opportunity to play but I really don’t see those guys playing anywhere else either. Truth is that Amaro has yet to trade away a young player who has done anything more than garner a high ranking on BA’s prospect list.

              I do agree that the Phillies mishandled Dom Brown the last year or so but Brown didn’t help himself by seizing on the opportunities that he did have. But as for giving young players opportunities, I saw Worley, Stutes, Bastardo, Herndon, and Mayberry all make significant contributions to the 2011 team. That’s 20% of the active roster in one season. I’m not sure what position playing prospect you wanted to keep around and give the chance to, Jason Donald and Michael Taylor?

              The reason the Phillies have been signing veteran players like Polanco and trading for a guy like Pence is exactly because they do not have guys in the minors ready to fill those roles. They wanted Brown to win the RF spot during ST in 2011 but it didn’t happen due to a combination of performance and injury. Francisco also crapped out so what was left was to go out and trade for someone (Pence) to fill the spot.

              The team appears to be getting old because many of the core players over the last 5 years are in their early 30’s but within the next 2 years, Howard’s will be the only contract that they are “stuck with” since Rollins is a FA in 2011, Polanco and Victorino are FA’s after 2012 and Utley and Ruiz are FA’s after 2013. Hopefully by then they will have a few young guys ready to take over but if not, they will have the $45M they are paying those 5 players to replenish the roster with younger replacements.

              That’s what big market teams who get good and stay good do, they spend money to fill holes.

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            6. “they will have the $45M they are paying those 5 players to replenish the roster with younger replacements.”

              I think you have unintentionally captured why some of us are worried about the future of the team. 45 million on the FA market won’t get you nearly the production you got from those guys (who were, per Fangraphs worth about 87 million in 2011 even with Utley’s injury problems), and with the system rather barren in terms of position players, at least at the upper levels, filling those holes internally will be problematic.

              To put it another way, they are potentially losing their top 5 position players by WAR (based on 2011 performance) over the next couple of years. Each of those players is playing for a relative bargain salary, and they will be very hard to replace, individually or collectively, at anything close to their current salaries. Their 6th best performer by WAR in 2011 was Pence, also potentially gone after 2013.

              None of this is destiny. Some bad contracts are also falling off the books, though the worst one isn’t, Valle could replace Ruiz and even save some money, ditto Mayberry in center and Galvis at SS (though he won’t provide the production that Rollins provided). Utley could be re-signed, hopefully for a reasonable contract, and he could age more gracefully than he appears to be aging now. So it’s not all bad, but there is reason for concern.

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            7. Larry,

              The cause for concern is created by having a developmental hole for position players in the system, not because they are paying old guys big contracts or because they have traded away the players that will replace the Utleys & Rollins of their team, which is the argument that was being presented.

              The Phillies problem today is that they were fortunate to have the best ss & 2b in the history of the organization arrive at the same time and now both of those players are on the down-side of their careers. They are not going to replace them internally with comparible talent nor do they have the ability off-set their loss with available talent in the system at different positions.

              I don’t dispute that there is concern moving forward but the reason for the concern isn’t created because they have traded away the next wave of all-stars or because they are stuck with a bunch of contracts for old players but rather due to the fact that there is no next wave of all-stars who are anywhere close to being ready to fill that void, that that includes the players who were traded away. As a result, to remain competative today, they are forced to use the FA market.

              As for their payroll, as it stands today, after the 2012 season, they have a total of $80M committed to Howard, Utley, Halladay and Lee plus another 2m committed to buyout clauses. Other than that, they have the flexibility to replace every other player on the roster along with aroung $90M to do so. With that much available cash, they are hardly in a position where they are going to collapse unless Amaro makes an awful lot of terrible decisions over the next year or two.

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            8. I think your post reflects a complacency that hopefully management does not share.

              It’s a combination of things. Even in the best case, a high payroll does not insulate a team from cyclical down times; even with perfect decision making, the fact that the core is all in their early 30s was going to be potentially problematic. You allude to this yourself.

              As for the contract factor, the Howard contract does hurt, though obviously much less than it would for a lower payroll team. I was in favor of the Lee signing, and he certainly pitched great in 2011, but the contract has downside risks. But the issue is more that some past decision making suggests that overly high contracts to older players may be a contnuing problem down the road.

              As for trading away prospects, sure it hasn’t really come back to bite them yet, and most of the deals were worth it. But you can’t really view it through the limited box of “we didn’t trade away prospects who could have replaced Rollins and Utley.” We traded away some potential stars at other positions. Maybe the strength of the next generation Phillies will or could have been in the OF or C rather than in the IF. Singleton and D’Arnaud and Gose aren’t major league ready now, but they are potential stars much more advanced than any remaining position players in the system with their upside. You could even say the same thing about Santana, even though he is further away than those other guys.

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            9. And to be clear, I am not predicting a “collapse.” I’m not even predicting a period of non-contention. But a couple of years of non-contention is certainly possible, even without an “awful lot of terrible decisions.” I think part of the reason that I disagree with you is that I think that it is a lot harder to effectively and efficiently fill gaps in the FA market than most people think. That 90 million could end up buying us a lot of aging mediocrity, even if Amaro doesn’t make horrible decisions.

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        2. Exactly…and wishful 3-year would come with a vested 4th. In the proverbial…Ruben is caught between ‘the rock and the hard place’ and dealing with Boras makes it even more difficult. That 4th year…and being in his mid-30s by then, will be risky to say the least. Meh.

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    2. agree with others that $11m per season is basically market rate but they continue to break Gillick’s golden rule about giving pitchers deals for more than 3 years. Sadly, its probably going to take them getting badly burned before they reign it back in.

      I expect that Hamels will be next in line for a 5-year deal.

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  55. I can appreciate the sarcasm. Whatever good Paterno has done is now tainted. But when you sweep things under the rug eventually they come out the other side.
    BTW Should the Sandusky Foundation now be classified as a possible “Criminal Enterprise” and therefore a warning to those who would hide behind good works.

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  56. Catch, the contract is not ideal but it is fair to both parties and I am sure people would howl if we were shut out on Madson and Papelbom. Heath Bell is a bit risky to me because of his fly ball tendoncies which won’t play as well in CBP. The other closers are clearly inferior to the three closers I mentioned so are you willing to settle for less or not. I don’t think Ruben is a easy mark but is willing to overpay a little for players the Phillies like instead of playing the roulette wheel.

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    1. I am actually supportive of the Madson contract in isolation – I like Madson and think that this contract will work out fine (as opposed to the Howard contract, which could be a full-blown disaster). And, as I previously noted, the problem with Ruben overpaying is that it is not an isolated incident – he seems to frequently overpay and overextend and the cumulative effect of those contracts can have a detrimental effect on the organization.

      We’ll see how Ruben handles all of this, but if the net result is that he, again, trades most of our top prospects during the season, I’m going to be really unhappy about that.

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  57. Well looks like montgomery wont sign off on deal for madson. So we need to find another closer. no way you can go to madson now after agreeing to 4 years and ask him to take three. 11 million for 4 with 5th year option is nuts imo.

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    1. Why not I don’t think anyone else will pay that number and it seems like a perfect play. Ruben can play good cop and present a number he DM will sign off on. This could be genius at work.

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        1. I think they probably want any Madson contract to start at $6-$8 for the first year and scale up. 4/44 might have been structured as 8/10/12/12 with a 2 million option for the 5th year at 13 million. Most new contracts are backloaded as the Phillies are gambling to win now and worry about the money later.

          I think I agree with the sentiment that this sort of deal is a fair price for Madson even if it is not the greatest financial decision for the team. It probably means no Oswalt which I am OK with. Assuming we can re-up Hamels I think the depth in the rotation is overrated (since we already have other adequate options). Whether this limits us in our 3B search is an open question. They can probably fit Cuddyer in as well and then go almost entirely in-house on the bullpen. Maybe sign someone to compete with Savery for the second LHP, but De Fratus probably moves up with Aumont getting the next bullpen opening.

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            1. Rather now go for OF Jorge Soler, 19-year old Cuban defector….6’3″, 205 lb…rated five tool player by scouts.

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          2. Yeah that brown certainly hasnt been given a shot. When your called up u take advantage of it. U dont dog it throw the ball into the seats play singles into doubles and hiy .240. Ttade him for j.j. hardy or neill walker and throw in those rollie finger clones, aumont . Who needs madson with the likes of the phillies waiting killer closers. And as ive been say ling for a year sign hill.

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  58. Could Phillies have brought back Freddy Galvis from Ven early, possibly hearing of reports that ballplayers may be targetted for kidnapping for money? Heres also hoping Wilson Ramos is returned safe and unharmed.

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    1. Don’t think that Galvis would be a target since he’s not making any money at this point but I also hope that Ramos makes it through this ordeal ok..

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        1. Phillies wouldn’t pay any ransom for Galvis. That would set a precedent for having all of your foreign born players become instant targets.

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  59. So … could the Phillies be the mystery team in the Jamey Carroll sweepstakes? He wasn’t really on my radar, but if the price isn’t too steep, I hope the answer is yes – stop gap SS and also a utility guy who would be a big upgrade over the guys the Phillies have been running out there.

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    1. If one would believe the links on MLBTR, it appears it might be the Blue Jays or the Phillies. I like the idea, and it looks like it might be that the Philly team may move on from J-Roll and work on an improved bench, etc; in lieu of some big money SS expenditures. As was put on some payroll projections, there is a big block for a Closer expenditure, and another big block for a SS expenditure and not much else. So, if the Carroll things materializes, and especially if they add another other than top tier SS, and some other bench/multiple position types like the rumored Cuddyer/Kubel types. It will seem more and more like it. Feelin’ it.

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      1. Had to look outside to make sure pigs hadn’t grown wings and started flying; Marfis and I are in substantial agreement.

        Though I have mixed feelings about a Cuddyer signing and negative feelings about a Kubel signing.

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        1. Shucks . . . when I opened the window for the blog and saw that Larry and Marfis had multiple consecutive entries, I was expecting (hoping?) for a full-blown cat fight and, low and behold, I see you guys are getting along?!!! What is this world coming to?

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          1. catch….my bet…it is a temporary truce of sorts. Give it some time..more opportunities await the sparing gentleman.

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        1. And for only 2 years and 7 million. Assuming that is 7 million over 2 years, and not 7 million per year, that is a very nice value for the Twins.

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        2. Meh. 510 PA in 2011…with 20 XBH and 17 RBI.

          I think there is probably a LOT better return out there than giving $7mil over two years to a 38-year-old who is a lifetime .700 OPS guy.

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          1. He hit 1st/2nd/8th most of the time, so the RBI opportunities aren’t plentiful. And for a leadoff/on base type hitter, they and slugging percentage aren’t as important as OBP, which has usually been Carroll’s strength. And given what the Twins got from their middle infield this season, he’s an improvement.

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            1. He’s OK…certainly better than Valdez/Martinez, which isn’t saying a lot. He would be a clear upgrade for the bench, but a MATERIAL step-down if he is the stop-gap for Rollins.

              Assuming they extend Hamels at some point before the end of next season, they will need every penny if they want to sign both Cuddyer and have a decent option at short…and – purely viewed as a bench/depth guy – I think $3.5 mil is too much scratch for a guy like Carroll…for this team, anyway.

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  60. Papelbon.

    If it is for less years than it would have taken to sign Madson, and the same or lower per year salary, you have to like the deal. An interesting quirk is that, depending upon who signs him, the Phillies get 2 picks and lose only one for Madson, meaning they come out ahead on picks by signing Papelbon rather than Madson.

    Say what you will about Amaro, and I’ve said some harsh things, the man is doesn’t mess around.

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    1. We net a supplemental but also net a higher pick in the 1st rd since the Phils has the best overall record. It will be interesting to see details of the deal. I suspect 3 yrs, 39 mil. I hope its less though

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    2. Thought Salisbury is saying it is probably a 4 year deal. 😦 Odd that Montgomery would sign off on that, but not the same for Papelbon. Unless they think Papelbon is signficantly better. I don’t; maybe a slight edge to Papelbon.

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      2. Perhaps an option year and Madson wanted a guarantee? Either is fine with me, and I like the extra picks and better 1st rd slot for next year’s draft.

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      3. “According to sources, the agreement for four years and approaches $50 million.”

        Ouch. (: Guess the Phillies liked Papelbon a lot more, or maybe the issue was the vesting 5th year to Madson, or both.

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          1. It uised to be that everyone thought the Phils to be “CHEAP”, not its looking like they are extravagant!!!

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          1. The problem is more the years than the AAV. Especially since it now looks like there is a 5th year that will vest fairly easily.

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          2. From a long-term, financial perspective, I don’t think this was a good deal (duh). The Phillies have cheap, major-league arms available…DeFratus looks like he is ready to compete for a 7th inning role in the bullpen – the role that Stutes was originally slated for in 2011 (until Contreras got hurt, Baez and Romero were cut, and he had to be an 8th inning guy as well). Even if Aumont isn’t ready until 2014, he looks like a guy with legit, back-of-the-bullpen potential. I don’t understand why they couldn’t have done Nathan on a 2-year deal and used the rest of the money they gave to Papelbon to extend Pence. It was the one place wher they could have gone younger and saved a few bucks…but Amaro chose to take a page out of the Cashman/Epstein book and whip out the checkbook. Not a lot of magic there.

            My take on the Pence deal was that they gave up a lot, but if they win a ring, it would be worth it. Signing Papelbon just takes that to another level…if they don’t win it again with this team, Amaro will be looked at simply as a guy who rode Gillick’s coattails, and when he got the checbook, it was a big fail.

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  61. This might be a dumb question but if Galvis was sent home early why is he still appearing in the box scores ?

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    2. Yeah I think they just want Galvis back in Florida so he continue to do the same off season conditioning he did last year. Plus he has played a lot of baseball this year and of course you don’t what is going to happen with Jimmy.

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    3. It would appear he was brought back a fgew weeks ago only to have wrist evaluated then returned to Venezuela until Dec 1st

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  62. Anybody like Nick Evans on the cheap? Young, versatile and I am sure, would to escape from the Metropolitans.

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    1. wheels…oh I see, he can sweep up the sunflower seeds in the dugout! I like him better then Mini Mart sans switch-hitting.

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  64. Papelbon- If his arm holds up for the duration, it’s a good deal. Course, you could say that about a lot of pitchers.

    The extra million and a half, allegedly, would be well worth it, if it gives better results

    Stats wise- we see over the recent careers, Papelbon has a higher strikeout rate, a lower walk rate, and though giving up more fly balls the HR rate is about the same, as compared to Madson.
    I don’t consider any of those as new-fangled stats, as they always recorded strikeouts, walks, innings pitched and all, and it is not a great leap to compare them to innings pitched, and I would bet somebody figured that out in 1883. And, if not then, sometime before the birth of Billy Beane, or whenever it was.

    Now, Keith Law, Given the strikeout, walk, flyball , HR per innings pitched thing, and the WAR totals of Papelbon and such, one might think he would heartily endorse this move. Not so, he dumped on it, as he does with every Phillies move. So, it would seem, the type of numerology he endorses, only works with a lot of explanation, prevarication, manipulation, and rationalization. You know, sort of like Wins by Pitchers, RBI’s , stuff like that.

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    2. I think whoever made this move would have been trashed. Relievers are so volatile that I would not give 3 years + to any reliever.

      This is a move that will look good until you look at the money and years left, I think year 1 & 2 will be really good and then it will go downhill quickly.

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    3. The “if” in your first sentence does a lot of work.

      I would put it differently – if his arm holds up, it’s an okay deal. But closers are so volatile/subject to injuries, that 4 year contracts (especially with a vesting 5th year) should be out of the question.

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      1. Unfortunately, nowadays, you cannot get the current state of the art top closers for limited years…..the ones coming off injury or the ones trying to resurrect a career or change the direction of their careers are available at the 2/3 year level. And with that category of reliever you also have risk to worry about, but in shorter length contracts.

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        1. The contract was record breaking, beyond what even “top” closers were getting. Maybe that will set the new market, but if so I’ll pass. Sure, other options carry risks of their own, but with less of a downside. If a resurrection project fails, (a) it’s easier to go in another direction than with a guy who you have a lot invested in (see Lidge 2010); (b) there are always options, espeically now for the Phillies.

          Honestly I dislike this deal a lot more than my posts let on, but I’m tired of Amaro bashing and am already pretty much resigned to a couple of years of non-contention in 2014-2015.

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          1. It’s all about opportunity costs – that’s what often gets left out of the equation, both with regard to FA signings and trades. IMO if I could level just one criticism of Amaro it is that he has an insufficient understanding of opportunity costs.

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    4. A lot more could be said about this comment – I think it’s great that you recognize that there is nothing “new” or controversial about giving weight to BB, K and HR rates for pitchers – a lot of ctirics of moderna statistical analysis don’t realize that – but I think that you might find that a lot of the modern stats similarly have more of a pedigree than you or many people realize. Even the emphasis on BB – which you criticize, yet which has correctly become part of the conventional wisdom – is not new – OBP has been around for a while, and plenty of baseball people recognized the value of getting on base before the modern statistical revolution. See, e.g., Earl Weaver. It’s true that people like Bill James have correclty deomnstrated that what had been a somewhat minority view was in fact the correct view, but in many respects the modern statistical revolution is less revolutionary than many people on both sides of the debate realize.

      Law’s problem with the move isn’t Papelbon per se – though he likes Madson better, and you can easily make a case for that position (arguably his fly ball propensities will be a bigger problem when he changes ball parks) – but that’s a minor part of it. Any closer carries too much downside risk for such a contract. Again you attack the numbers guys without really undertanding their arguments.

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    2. If thats true , it explains Papelbon, it had been reported that the Red Sox would not go 4 years for him. If that was known then the Phillies probably concluded if we have to go 4 to sign Madson, lets go 4 and sign Papelbon

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  66. I saw Scottsdale is playing today in the AFL. Bryce Harper has had some great offensive numbers but it seems he needs to work on his defense. He committed his 5th error already and I remember watching the Futures game and he looked lost in left field. He miss played a ball and then missed his cut off (he does have a good arm though). I think that might be the only thing that prevents him from getting time in the big leagues in 2012.

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  67. Buster Olney says (through links on MLBTR) that 1st round draft pick compensation likely to disappear , via the institution of a luxury tax draft system, whereby slot recommended bonuses will be assigned through the 1st ten rounds. Teams are not required to adhere to individual recommendations for picks but if they exceed total recommendations for the 1st ten rounds they will first be taxed and the second time they will lose top draft pick(s) . Olney says they are on 10 yard line. Hope it is much as they say, and they conclude this shortly.

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  68. Geese Ruben what happened to all that talk of upgrading the offense? I was really hoping for a splash in either LF or 3B. Don’t get me wrong Paps is great but I think kROD or CAPPS on a short deal would have fit the bill.

    Hamels needs to be signed and SS needs to be taken care of. Where do we go from here? I get it you covet great pitching I’m just more inclined to invest in everyday players first before I worry about 3 outs in the 9th. And again that is not to diminish the closer role.

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      1. I appreciate the sarcasm well played. Having said that it makes you wonder what the plan is to upgrade the offense. Its not like there are many good options via FA.

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        1. Despite my reservations about the Papelbon signing, there’s something to be said for the argument that directly FA dollars to the one position of need (aside from SS, but see below) where the available free agents were actually very good players (and getting one of the top 2 available players) was at least an understandable strategy.

          Some of us have been saying for weeks that expecting “a splash in either LF or 3B” was unrealistic given the available options.

          Closer aside, the only moderately exciting options at positions of need are Rollins and Reyes at SS, and there are understandable reasons why the Phillies are unlikely to re-sign Rollins or sign Reyes.

          I still think the Papelbon contract was a mistake, but I can at least see the logic which led them to go in that direction.

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      2. Funny, but also silly. As stated below, I understand the Papelbon strategy & don’t think there were many good opportunities to upgrade the offense in the first place, but certainly even at this early point in the post season, the combination of lack of exciting options and payroll limitations makes it unlikely that we’ll see them upgrade the offense much. Probably the best remaining player who the Phillies have any real chance of signing is … Rollins. Which for the right price would be a good sign, but by definition not an “upgrade.”

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  70. Details of Paps contract released. Appears the 5th yr (13m) will vest with 55 games finished in 2015 or 100 or more covering 2014-2015. That’s not as bad as I thought when it was reported that the option will vest ‘easily’. If Papelbon finishes 55 games in 2015, we can assume he’s still productive. Appearances is one thing, but that’s alot of games to ‘finish’

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  71. Let’s move the Hamels discussion here where it belongs.

    Hamels is great, no question. But I don’t think signing him is quite the no brainer that some people think. As usual, it depends on the price. Assuming it will take a Lee level deal to get it done …

    I don’t know. Set aside for a moment the fact that any 5 year deal for a pitcher is risky. Assume that the deal is structured to minimize the salary impact for 2012. Still … over 50 million for 3 starting pitchers in 2012, over 65 million (!) in 2013 and 2014 if Halladay’s option vests or is exercised. And then still a ton of money for two starting pitchers in 2015 and 2016. Which might not be bad if Hamels and Lee remain elite pitchers in those years, but given the vagaries of starting pitcher careers, you might not want to count on that. Is it smart to allocate so much of your payroll to starting pitchers, even very good ones? Maybe, maybe not.

    Look, this isn’t necessarily an argument not to do the deal. But it isn’t a no-brainer. especially if it will take a Lee type contract. Add in the Howard deal, the Papelbon deal and the relative lack of high ceiling minor leaguers above low A (and ironically the exceptions are pitchers, not position players), and payroll is going to be tight for the foreseeable future. As much as 100 million per year devoted to 5 players in 2013-2014. You are REALLY gambling that the big 3 are going to, pretty much by themselves drag an otherwise increasingly mediocre team to contention for the next 4 years.

    OTOH, I imagine Hamels is the one player on the team who could get you quite a package of talent in trade. Preferably major league talent, or major league ready talent, to take advantage of the current window of contention. Obvious downsides to this strategy exist, but otherwise you run the risk of him leaving in FA and getting you no more than a draft pick.

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  72. Keep hearing this talk about how the payroll is going to be tight moving forward and I still don’t see it. $100M devoted to 5 players in 2013-2014 still leaves the Phillies around $70M to pay the rest of the roster. Assuming that some of the young pitching develop to the point of becoming 4th & 5th starters plus bullpen arms, paying them still leaves around $60m to put together a line-up. With Howard already accounted for, that leaves $60M for 7 regulars and 5 bench players.

    Also need to keep in mind that as the seasons move forward and revenues increase, so will the luxury tax level and so will their payroll. Chances are that by 2015, their $170M payroll will be closer to $185.

    Yes, giving big contract to players comes with risk (Note that I’m not a fan giving Papelbon 4-years) but the Phillies biggest advantage is that they are a big market team who is selling out the stadium nightly and has huge tv ratings. They can afford to take the risk of signing or retaining star players without having to fill in the rest of their roster with mediocre talent.

    It is just as risky to trade away a Cole Hamels because you can’t afford to “pay” him along with Halladay/Lee etal and hope that the talent you get in return is good enough to make up for the lost production.

    There is a reason that big market teams are annual playoff contenders. Its because they can both pay their stars and complete a roster with talented players. Yes, it can go horribly wrong when a big market team is woefully mismanaged (Cubs), but I don’t see evidence so far that the Phillies are being mismanaged.

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        1. Your snarky response proves my point, rather than contradicting it. The Rays are hardly built on free agent signings; they are built upon a bunch of cost controlled pre-FA players generating far more value than they are costing in salary, along with some players with very team friendly contracts signed prior to FA which cover some otherwise FA seasons. Along with one or two “value” FA signings.

          That’s not a model that .. well, anyone .. can rely upon, nice as it is, but especially not the 2013-2015 Phillies, who simply will not have many players in that favorable contract situation.

          Moreover, given the configuration of the minor league system (i.e., the most advanced high ceiling prospects are pitchers), and the money already allocated contractually from 2013-2015 (disproportionately allocated to pitching, and the rest mostly allocated to a first baseman in serious decline), there is a strong argument that the remaining resources should go disproportionately to position players. Even so, I’m not saying that Hamels definitely shouldn’t be signed. But increasingly people on this board are suffering from a bizarre kind of magical thinking where there are no trade offs in terms of payroll. The sad fact is that Amaro seems to share this mind set.

          The willful blindness on this site is simply stunning. It’s certainly possible that the pitching will be good enough to carry the increasingly mediocre hitting to contention over the next few years, but this team is not the Yankees and will never be.

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      2. Well, figure that the 5 bench players combined shouldn’t cost more than $8M (their 2011 bench cost $5.6M) that then leaves $52M for 7 position players, or about $7.4M each. Don’t know where you shop but $7.4M per season on the FA market gets much more than sub-mediocrity.

        Besides, the $60M number is the 2012 starting point. as I and others have pointed out, their payroll will continue to rise. Figure that in 2009, the Phillies payroll was under $115M and 2 years later it was over $165M. That’s an average rise of $25M per year. I certainly don’t expect close to that level of annual increase moving forward but there is no reason to expect it won’t continue to grow.

        Now maybe I’m just suffering from willful blindness or maybe some people’s dislike for Amaro’s approach is clouding their ability to objectively look at the situation.

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        1. First of all, what I object to is the blase attitude that the mere fact that we have a high payroll means we have nothing to worry about, despite an aging roster, thin at the top minor league system, one undeniably bad 100 million + contract, and other risky large long term contracts. Yes, that kind of attitude is willfully blind. It doesn’t mean that the team is doomed to fall out of contention, but it does mean that signing another starting pitcher to a 100 million plus contract is at least something that shouldn’t be done lightly.

          Where we mainly differ, I expect, isn’t in evaluating Amaro, but in evaluating the FA market. There seems to be a belief even among the smarter people on this board that it is easy to fill out a roster with quality free agents at reasonable prices. It isn’t, even for the most skilled GM. Look at FA signings over the past few years. Even solid regulars are getting contracts with an AAV over 10 million. Stars are getting contracts for 20 million AAV – some a little lower, but many higher. 7.4 million per player won’t buy you much unless you get incredibly lucky by hitting the lottery on reclamation projects.

          And then yes, let’s factor Amaro into the equation. Even his biggest fans would have to concede that he tends to over pay for FA (or FA eligible) players. Howard, Papelbon, Ibanez, Blanton being the biggest examples. The Lee contract, which has worked out well so far, and which I felt at the time was a good move, is no bargain and has a serious downside risk. His good contracts have mostly been for arb eligible players (Ruiz, Victorino). His best FA signing from a value basis was probably Polanco … but weigh that against the bad contracts. The point isn’t “Amaro stinks,” though my opinion of him is lower than many peoples’, but that he’s not exactly the best choice for a GM in an environment where we need to find some FA bargains.

          Now, of course all is not doom and gloom. Maybe Derek’s financial projections are right (though I think they are overly optimistic). Maybe Mayberry/Brown/Galvis/Valle will become regulars, allowing them to spread their FA dollars among fewer position players. Hopefully the starting pitchers will hold up. But the 2011 Phillies had essentially an average offense. They are losing a good hitting SS, are getting older, and are facing a future where their best hitters are not just getting older, but are headed to free agency in the next couple of years. Anyone who thinks that the high payroll papers over all of those problems is delusional. Especially if Hamels is signed to a Lee type deal, it will take an exceptionally talented – and lucky – GM to avoid a down period among the position players. And as I said, even absent that, the pitching might carry them. But one injury to a 100 million dollar starting pitcher could be enough to drop them from contention.

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          1. While I want to emphasize that this isn’t primarily about Amaro – avoiding a down period for the club would be a challenge for ANY GM, despite the high payroll – I would like to share the following quote from him: “Valdez was outstanding. He was our MVP two years ago, probably. He did another nice job for us this year.” (This in the context of saying that he would be offered arbitration.) Now I realize that Amaro should be judged on his actions rather than on the crazy shit that he says, but still, that is not a confidence inspiring statement.

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            1. That is so funny. I read that comment yesterday and I thought of you, LarryM, sitting at your computer, having a small aneurysm. One of the most stupid things Ruben has ever said and I hope to God that he really does not mean that in any literal sense.

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            2. I’m actually in a calmer place with regard to Amaro, believe it or not. His actions – even when I disagree with them – aren’t as dumb as his comments, so I discount the stupid comments. As for the rest … he is what he is. There have been some good moves, and the hope has to be that the combination of the solid minor league operation (despite the probably temporary relative lack of top prospects) and the high payroll will be enough to overcome his bad side.

              It will be interesting to see how he deals with the SS situation. There are pitfalls all around – overpaying for Rollins, picking the wrong stop gap, overpaying for a stop gap, prematurely relying upon Galvis. I see two acceptable outcomes – a lower than expected contract for Rollins, or a relatively cheap deal to one of the two remaining decent stop gap options (Furcal, Barmes). Hopefully Amaro will deliver one of the latter options.

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            3. And one thing that gets lost in my criticisms of Amaro – I WANT to be wrong about him. Not just because I’m a fan, but because I like his aggressiveness in meeting team needs. Lee (twice!), Halladay, Oswalt – those were ballsy moves. Even Pence and Papelbon, as much as I criticized both moves, were examples of identifying a need, and filling it with who he perceived to be the best player available. And because of this, I feel that, prior to the Pence deal, I bent over backwards to defend the man.

              But as time goes on, increasingly I have doubts about his ability to evaluate talent (beyond the obvious – i.e., you don’t have to be a genius to see that Halladay and Lee are really good), and his ability to properly value players, especially older players.

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            4. I think there’s a really good chance that Amaro ends up giving Rollins something like a 4 year, $52 million deal with a vesting 5th year at the same rate with a large buyout ($4-6 million). It will be just long and pricey enough to bother the living hell out of most of us.

              Frankly, I’d be thrilled if he went something like 2 years and $18-20 million for Furcal with a third year option. A much smarter move in my book.

              On Amaro, I’ve been trying to figure out what drives his moves. Obviously, he is a huge fan of pitching and, to give the guy a little credit, he seems to evaluate pitchers pretty well. He is also pretty damned risk averse and will overpay by quite a lot to minimize risk (at least in his mind) and to make sure everything is covered. The problem is that, when you do this, you overspend and therefore limit flexibility, and you often reduce opportunities for young players. In many ways, they are the opposite of the Eagles (who are risk tolerant in some areas to the point of insanity . . . . linebackers? . . . who needs linebackers?).

              By the way, does anyone have a “comp” for Cespedes? Is he projected to be like a Torrii Hunter . . . .Jose Bautista . . . Matt Kemp? Any word?

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            5. The comp for Cespedes that I’ve heard most often is a left-handed Andruw Jones, at least offensively. An approx. 40-50 hit tool with big (70) power. Not near the speed of Jones (maybe 5-10 SB a year), and therefore not the range defensively, but could definitely stay in CF.

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          2. I think to discuss Amaro without including Cholly is short sighted. If Bastardo hadn’t been overpitched in early September , would Paps even be here. At some point you have to roll the dice not always wait for an injury to set the course for your team. Geese Worley won 13 games didn’t make the cut in ST. He was blocked by Blanton (sarcasm). What makes this worse is the ability Amaro has show to get what he needs INSEASON.
            Holy Carl Crawford I would rather overpay for a two year contract than suffer watching guys play who don’t deserve it

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      3. 1) There is no place for bad decisions in player transactions no matter how big a team’s payroll is.
        2) A team should not use its best prospects as trade bait exclusively; the goal should be that some of the best prospects eventually become regulars in the big club’s lineup or pitchers in the front of the rotation.

        Regardless of payroll, it is inevitable that the Phils will descend into mediocrity if they fail to use their farm system properly and otherwise make too many bad player decisions.

        I think the Phils have the money to remain an elite team for the foreseeable future. I anticipate a payroll of $180 million in 2012 and an increase to $200 million by 2015. Money’s not the issue.

        The issue is Amaro’s decision-making. My primary beef is that Amaro has shown little enthusiasm for maintaining the pipeline from the farm to Philadelphia.

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        1. Not sure how you come to this conclusion. Last year’s team included significant contributions from minor leagues Mayberry, Worley, Bastardo, and Stutes. Schwimmer and DeFratus are very likely to join the big club at some point in 2012. Dom Brown is currently in AAA ball and according to some, should be a option for LF in 2012 while others are are advocating that Galvis should replace Rollins.

          As for your first point, every team makes bad decisions. Think the Braves are happy to be paying Derreck Lowe $10M to pitch elsewhere this season? How about the Yankees still owing A-Rod about $160M or the Mets having Johann Santana for 2 more seasons at $20M+ per, the Cubs with Soriano, RedSox and Crawford, etc. etc.

          But you are correct that the Phillies (or any team) will descend into mediocrity if the don’t use their farm system properly or make too many bad player decisions. I just don’t see the evidence that that describes the Phillies at this point.

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          1. I should have been clearer.

            One of my points is that a team’s goal should be to fill some of the positions in the major-league lineup and the front of the rotation with the team’s best prospects. In this way, the team can fill some of its key positions with under-priced talent. So far, Amaro has only been filling secondary positions on the big club from the farm.

            Ryan Howard in 2005, Cole Hamels in 2006, and Carlos Ruiz in 2007 were the last three players from the farm to fill key positions on the Phils’ big club. Next season, it will be five years since the Phils filled a key position from the farm. I am not optimistic that Brown will get a fair shot with the Phils in 2012 or ever (I hope I am wrong.). Not a healthy situation.

            It should be understood that we don’t just want young and cheap; we want young and cheap and good. It’s premature to talk about Galvis as a good candidate to be the regular SS for an elite team.

            The other players you mentioned are bullpen guys, a bench guy and a back-of-the-rotation starter and don’t provide much payroll savings potential. While these players can be solid contributors, I don’t think any of them will be one of the dozen or so key players that make or break a team (Incidentally, now that the Phils signed Papelbon, it doesn’t look like Bastardo, De Fratus or Aumont will be given a shot to close anytime soon. This situation reinforces my point.).

            The Pence trade is another reason for my pessimism about how Amaro intends to use the farm. Again, I hope I am wrong.

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            1. Well I agree that the goal should be to fill major roles with minor league guys IF those guys are available. My point is that Amaro’s is making the deals to bring in players like Halladay, Lee, and Pence because that level of replacement talent didn’t exist in their minor league system.

              As I had asked previously, which player has Amaro traded away who would currently be filling one of the major position player roles or would be a front of the rotation pitcher? Of the guys traded away, none have done anything in the majors today beyond being bench players or back of the rotation starters. D’arnaud and Gose are probably the closest to being ML ready players and they are still at least 1 more year away and neither is a sure fire all-star. Singleton and Cosart are at least 2 years away assuming they even survive the jump to AA and beyond.

              I believe fans became a bit spoiled by the anomoly of the Phillies having Rollins, Utley, Howard, Hamels, and Ruiz all coming out of the system within a couple of years of each other. A streak like that is the exception, not the rule.

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            2. As for the last comment about Papelbon blocking Bastardo, DeFratus or Aumont. I’m not a fan of the deal based on the length but none of the 3 guys you mentioned are with 2-3 years of being ready to be closers for a WS contending team. By the time they are ready, Papelbon’s contract will be expiring.

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          2. Long term versus short term – long term, the Phillies have enough organizational strengths to outweigh any deficiencies that their GM may have. I’m not too worried.

            Medium term, it can’t be emphasized enough that the combination of an aging roster, one very bad contract, a couple of other risky contracts, and a minor league system relative barren at the top, means that avoiding a down period will take either extremely good decision making, luck, or both. The payroll makes things easier – in the sense that it’s possible the team can rebuild on the fly, without a down period. Whereas a more moderate payroll team would inevitably have a down period.

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    2. I think the Phillies are willing to brush up against the luxury tax, which has increased by at least $7 million every year since 2004. The threshold was $178 million in 2011, should be at least $185 million in 2012, and could be over $205 million by 2015.

      I could see the Phils’ payroll at $180 million in 2012 and $200 million by 2015. There’s no doubt in my mind that the Phils easily can generate sufficient revenue to cover the increased payroll expense. No, the Phils will never be the Yankees, who could be at $250 million in payroll by 2015, but the Phils can go toe-to-toe with every other team in baseball.

      It sounds unduly burdensome for a team to commit $100 million to just five players until you consider that the five-man bench and five guys at the back of the bullpen can be had for less than $10 million in total. $110 million for 15 players makes the job of filling out the rest of the roster not very difficult if you have $75-90 million left to spend.

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  73. As per MLB trade rumors it doesn’t seem like Hamels will be going anywhere.

    The Phillies are indicating Cole Hamels would cost “three small countries and two oceans” in a trade, according to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (Twitter link). Considering what sort of package it would take to land Hamels, the southpaw likely isn’t going anywhere.

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  75. According to RUMORS
    “The Phillies are close to re-signing catcher Brian Schneider, according to Jon Paul Morosi and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter link).”
    I this is only a minor league deal and a ST invite

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    1. That sucks I thought they might go after Doumit. Brians a good soldier and all but your back up catcher should give you some offense off the bench when needed.

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  76. That sux I thought they might go after Doumit. Brians a good soldier and a good guy but would like to see some more offense out of that position.

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    1. I think they bring in someone else to compete with him. Only a fool would think that we can have a repeat of Brian’s 2011 offensive year. In limited playing time he was about a negative 1 WAR – trust me, that’s not easy to do (granted, his pretty good work behind the complaint mitigated against that and there is no metric that currently captures that performance adequately although, in a short period of time, there will be, at which point we will all get up and spontaneously salute Carlos Ruiz). What is it with the Phillies and .170 hitters?

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      1. Schneider was terrible but it was 139 plate appearances. I don’t think he’s as bad as his 2011 numbers suggest. But I do hope Erik Kratz is given an opportunity to win a backup job as well.

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    2. DMAR, I spoke to a friend near Pittsburgh about Ryan Doumit and he said he is way below average defensively but he can hit much better than Schneider. Schnieder did a great job with Kendrick and Worley last year. Hopefully, his average can get up to the .250 range.

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      1. Not even close. If you’re holding your breath for Schneider to rebound from 2011 to his .250 in 2012 you’re going to turn blue.

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    3. The problem with Doumit is he already turned down a 3 million dollar offer to play for someone. How much money does he want? 4-5 mill? He also probably wants a starting job. These are things the Phillies can’t afford to give him.

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      1. His agent’s web site says he throws low to mid 90s with a great slider. But…that’s his agent talking. I’m taking that with a grain of salt.

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        2. Say…can we start a new thread on ‘Open Talk’…this thread is getting overloaded..300 plus comments.. and slow to navigate within?

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  80. Ruben talks with Bob Garber this afternoon…hopefully it is about the weather and not Oswalt or CJ WIlson free agency contract demands.

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  81. IF i am not mistaken chooch doesnt make as much as doumit turned down.so how could you think they would pay more for a backup then chooch gets>>

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  82. fyi – interesting article in the Inquirer this morning about Jake Diekman. Apparently, he is hitting the mid to high 90s (!!!) with his fastball and has nasty breaking pitches. It would be fantastic to have our own Jonny Venters counterpart. In any event, it sounds like he is going to get a shot in the bullpen sometime this year.

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  83. I saw that Catch. Not sure if he has Venters’s upside, but he’s certainly someone to watch in ST. His BB ratio is still Zagurski-ish though, so command will need to improve some before he’s considered for a role on the big club. It would be nice to see him carry momentum from of his AFL season into 2012

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    2. I prefer Schneider to making a signing that would cost multi millions for the backup catcher. Most of the good catchers are starters or backups looking for starting jobs or split time. The Phillies can offer neither so the best thing for them to do is go cheap. They could have went with Kratz but I guess they’d rather have Schneider who has a rapport with the pitching staff. Can’t say I blame them. This deal will not help or hurt their chances of competing now or in the future.

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      1. Kratz will be there come May/June—-one of Ruiz or Schneider, more then likely, will be down with some ailment, maybe even Tuffy will be given the opp—his name alone will generate loads of ESPN dialogue.

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  85. I wish posters would stop describing pitchers’ effectiveness in terms of FIP and xFIP, which are incomplete stats that typically account for only 25-30% of batters faced.

    While walks and K’s are obviously very important numbers, 70-75% of the time, batters are making contact, and we need to know the quality of the contact. Does the pitcher get hit hard or not?

    The technology exists to measure the quality of contact, viz., the velocity of the ball off the bat. Since it’s really forward velocity that we are concerned with, we also need to know the angle at which the ball comes off the bat. Simple vector analysis then enables us to calculate forward velocity.

    By deriving a new formula for measuring pitcher effectiveness, which includes walks, Ks and a contact factor, we will have a new stat that is based on 100% of batters faced.

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    1. derek,

      Whether the technology exists or not, and whether it will be able to accurately model a “contact factor,” we’re stuck for now with what we have. If one is going to make predictions of future performance based upon currently available statistics, xFIP and FIP are simply much better than using ERA. There’s also plenty of evidence that for most pitchers (aside from knuckleballers, and, to a much lesser extent, extreme ground ball pitchers) the “contact factor,” over a sufficient sample size is pretty small.

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      1. Take Kershaw, for example. He is regarded as one of those pitchers who has good skills in avoiding “good contact.” Yet on a career basis his ERA is not THAT much lower than his FIP (2.88 versus 3.04.) And even there, 716 IP is small enough of a sample size than his “real” ability to limit “good contact” may be smaller than that implies. Simply stated, as IP increase on a career basis, most pitchers see a convergence between ERA and FIP as luck evens out.

        What is a little interesting about Kershaw is that there is a more significant divergence between xFIP and ERA. What that means in practical terms is either (a) that he has some sort of “skill” in avoiding HR on flyballs, or (b) he has been quite lucky on avoiding HR on fly balls. Now, I fully understand the argument that some pitchers have a real skill in avoiding “good contact.” But if you think about it, that should manifest itself in more ground balls, fewer line drives, maybe more IF flies. But I have a time seeing any skill involved in limited the percentage of true fly balls (as opposed to pop ups) which leave the ball park.

        Though as long as I am digressing to Kershaw, I’ll admit that the people who say that Halladay was robbed, solely based upon a lower FIP and xFIP, are stating too much. OTOH, I do think Halladay had a stronger case for the award than many believed, based upon FIP and xFIP (or, more precisely, his lower BB rate.)

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        1. Do you not place any value in the tRA? tRA is a stat similar to FIP, with two key changes: it accounts for the ‘type of batted ball allowed’, and it ‘estimates’ a pitcher’s outs as well as his runs allowed from the data at hand.

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          1. Well I place some value on it. But I’d make the following points:

            (1) People who are FIP sceptics are hardly going to be likely to accept an even more obscure metric. FIP and xFIP are more widely known and available.
            (2) It suffers from the fact that current batted ball data is overly subjective (also a fault of modern fielding metrics.)
            (3) It isn’t scaled the same as ERA. One advantage of FIP and xFIP is that they are scaled the same as EA, making it easier for people who are familiar with ERA (i.e., most fans) to understand what a good FIP or xFIP is.
            (4) I do not know if any work has been done to compare the predictive ability of tRA versus FIP and xFIP. I DO know that there is plenty of data indicating the FIP has more predictive value than ERA.

            Note that SIERA is a more widely used (and probably better) metric that also incorporates batted ball data.

            I expect that in the long run we will have metrics that do a really good job of incorporating batted ball data. Now, if the ability to force “bad contact” was really a skill that seperated good pitchers from bad pitchers, we might prefer a flawed stat that incorporated batted ball data. But given that the data pretty clearly indicates that MOST of what makes a good pitcher is explained by K, BB and HR data, let’s stick with FIP for now.

            Of course, in the real world the critics of FIP by and large prefer ERA and don’t even know what tRA (or SEIRA for that matter) is. Given those alternatives, I’m confident sticking with FIP and xFIP.

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      2. Larry –

        Whatever the merits of FIP and xFIP for predicting future performance, the fact of the matter is that these stats are widely used to evaluate current and past performance. You yourself did it in comparing Kershaw and Halladay. FIP is used to calculate pitchers’ WAR, so clearly FIP is viewed as an all-purpose stat.

        As I use the term “contact factor”, I am not simply referring to ground ball, line drive and fly ball percentages. As I stated clearly above, when I talk about a contact factor, I am referring to how hard batters are hitting a pitcher, and I am using the velocity of the ball off bats to measure contact. Your statement that the contact factor is of minor significance is based on a different measure of contact than I am using.

        Your comments about Kershaw don’t really add much to the discussion. All you are doing is describing the relationship of one flawed stat to another flawed stat.

        The baseball world does not just consist of two groups, traditionalists that embrace ERA and modernists who embrace FIP, xFIP, etc. There’s a third group out there, of which I am a member, that recognizes the inaccuracies inherent in all of these stats. While others’ initial reaction to the latest stat may be acceptance, mine is skepticism.

        The sabermetrics people deserve high marks for raising questions about time-honored baseball statistics. Lower marks to date in developing better alternatives. Developing a good set of statistics for measuring offense, defense and pitching is a work in progress, not a finished product.

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        1. You are being obtuse. Sure FIP and xFIP have their flaws. Hopefully some day we will have even better stats. What do we do in the meantime? The logical implication of your last two posts is that we just throw up our hands and wait for better stats. That’s just silly, and I suspect you know that. How would YOU have gone about choosing a Cy Young winner this year, for example? Ignore stats completely and go with subjective evaluation? Of course not. Even a skeptic is going to use the tools at his disposal, including traditional and modern stats.

          FIP and xFIP are vastly superior to ERA as a predictive stat. IMO they are better as descriptive stats as well, but then we get into definitional issues – are we concerned about meauring bottom line results, or meauring pitching skill? Obviously NO statistic will ever be perfect, but pretty clearly FIP and xFIP go a long way to removing “luck” from evaluating pitching performance. They are better predictive stats BECAUSE they succeed in removing much of the luck factor (including the “luck” of being supported by good fielders), and that has implications for evaluation as well as prediction.

          As for “Your statement that the contact factor is of minor significance is based on a different measure of contact than I am using,” no, that is incorrect – at least assuming that at some level you are interested in measuring something that has a real relation to bottom line results. It’s been shown pretty conclusively that BB/K/HR data explains most of the variance in performance among non-knuckleball pitchers. Of course the remainer is explained by contact factors and luck – but it’s been demonstrated.that contact factors account for suprisingly little. Pitchers – at least pitchers good enough to make the major leagues – with rare exceptions don’t have much control over what kind of contact the hitter makes. Surprising but true. (Parenthetically, the hitter DOES have more control over this factor, which is why we don’t evaluate hitters using just K, BB and HR data.)

          Now, all THAT said you act as if SABR people just ignore the contact factor and think FIP is perfect. That is, of course, far from the truth, and their are metrics which try to incorporate batted ball data (SIERA, etc.) That’s not the approach that you favor, but logically it SHOULD work, if the batted ball data is good enough (which it isn’t yet.) There are also people looking at how hard batters hit pitchers. Myself, I see some problems with that approach, but hey let’s study it and see what it tells us. In the meantime, excuse me if I use the tools available to help my evaluate players.

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          1. If you can quantify the Worley July 4 game let me know. Not one batted ball was in serious danger of becoming a hit. Also what is the stat that explains why so many batters took third strikes by Worley.
            My point is no stat ever will be near perfect. Its like trying to carry water in your hand it can be done to some extent.

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          2. Baseball fans like stats. I am a baseball fan. I like stats, too. I like good stats. I don’t like ERA, FIP, xFIP, etc. because they are not good stats. While I wait for better stats to be developed, I use currently available stats out of necessity. How could you think otherwise?

            I do not view FIP or xFIP as superior to ERA in measuring current and past performance.

            Cite a specific, reputable study that has measured contact in terms of the velocity of balls off bats and has concluded that the contact factor is insignificant in measuring pitcher performance. If you cannot do so, then my statement stands: you are using a different measure of contact than I am.

            You draw the wrong inferences from my words. I did not infer that sabermetric professionals are content with the stats they have developed so far. A guy like Tom Tango is constantly questioning the value of stats, even those that he himself developed. Tango is a good analyst.

            What I did infer is that there are a lot of gullible people posting on various baseball websites who mindlessly accept the latest stat without examining its weaknesses.

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            1. The fact that the precise study you want do see hasn’t been done doesn’t invalidate the many studies which address the ultimate question from a different direction.* The ultimate question is: what factors go into being a successful pitcher at the major league level. Studies have shown that K, BB and HR explain most of the non-random variance in performance. Again, not all of it, but most. I don’t have time or space to set forh all of the evidence, but let me point out some of it. First of all, the very fact that FIP is a better predictive stat has obvious implications beyond just prediction. What is it more predictive? Because it succeeds in removing a large component of “luck” – i.e., fielding. Really the only counter argument is “I’m not interested in removing luck, I want to measure bottom line run prevention.” But that’s not your argument – you do want to remove luck and isolate skill. If you want to do that, FIP does so, not perfectly, but better than ERA (which, aside from excluding unearned runs, doesn’t even attempt to remove the luck factor).

              Then there is the fact that, over a sufficient sample size, babip for pitchers – which is the biggest component of ball in play success (the only other signficant components would be percentage of doubles and GIDP) converges. Yes, some pitchers are more successful in that regard – but most pitchers fall into a fairly narrow band. Over the last 20 years, pitchers with a large enough number of IP fall mainly between .280 and .300, with a few outliers. Now, it’s true that FIP doesn’t account for these real variances – so it isn’t a perfect stat. We have precisous few of those. But because it does isolate MOST of what makes a pitcher successful, it is a very useful stat.

              *Tobbacco executives have long questioned the cancer/tobbacco link by pointing out – correctly – that no one has demonstrated the mechanism by which tobbacco causes cancer. That lack does not invalidate the massive epidemiological evidence which demonstrates a causal relationship.

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            2. Let’s look at a guy like Happ. It was correctly predicted that he would not match his rookie performance. That prediction was based on FIP. You concede the predictive value of FIP, so I assume you will concede that that prediction was not just a matter of luck. Are you claiming that, for Happ, his rookie ERA was a better description of his performance than his FIP? If so, that would seem to conflict with your stated desire to find a measure which isolates a pitcher’s skill. Because it’s prettty clear that Happ was seriously lucky in his rookie year – lucky with regard to balls in play, and lucky with regard to sequencing (his high strand rate). FIP as a DESCRIPTIVE stat correctly identifies that “luck” factor, and better describes his rookie season than his ERA.

              Now there are a few pitchers with a long term divergence between FIP and ERA where the ERA may be a better descriptive – and preditive – stat than FIP. But for most pitchers, FIP will be both a better descriptive AND predictive stat than ERA. Not perfect, but better.

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            3. Larry, Larry, Larry – Nice try. If only we just counted your words and did not read them, you’d be the King.

              1) You think that the complex scientific issue of how tobacco causes cancer is analogous to the rather simple issue of determining pitcher effectiveness. Is this Larry being silly?
              2) You are trying to convert this into a discussion about ERA vs. FIP, something that you are comfortable discussing. No dice. This is a discussion about FIP vs. a superior method of measuring pitcher performance that is defense-independent.
              3) FIP measures pitcher effectiveness by considering the equivalent of only 2+ innings and ignoring the remaining 6+ innings of a ball game. So, we should ignore 70-75% of each game because it makes the job of measuring pitcher effectiveness a simpler task? Since, with a little effort, there is a better approach that looks at the entire nine innings, I don’t think so.
              4) You justify the exclusion of most of the game by introducing the BABIP argument. The logical inconsistency here takes my breath away. The goal is to develop a defense-independent method for measuring pitcher effectiveness; yet, you try to bolster support for FIP by talking batting average, perhaps the most defense-dependent stat of them all. Bravo. Well done. On behalf of all pitchers who get pounded and their loved ones, I want to personally thank you for adopting BABIP and treating all hits as created equal. You rank with the Founding Fathers. I also want to thank you for not mentioning SLGBIP or wOBABIP.
              5) To repeat, the formula I propose includes BBs and Ks, but, to remain defense independent, adds a contact factor which is based on both the velocity and the angle of the ball off the bat. If you know the angle of the ball off the bat, you will know if the batted ball is a grounder, line drive, fly ball or pop-up. Moreover, you will know if the first bounce of a grounder is ten feet in front of home plate or at the edge of the infield grass. Useful information.
              6) Of course, the contact factor will not identify as positives the dinks and dunks or grounders squeaking through the infield that occasionally become hits. Yes, there is randomness in baseball; just not so much.

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          3. Remember the goal here: we want to measure pitcher performance in a way that is independent of defense and official scoring. FIP is a simplistic approach that ignores balls in play altogether and, in so doing, ignores most of every game played. Adding a hard contact factor is a way to measure pitcher performance that is independent of defense and official scoring, that accounts for all batters, and that is superior to other approaches using batted-ball data.

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            1. No disagreement that FIP misses some things. It misses a lot less than you think IMO. And given current stat availability, I find it hard to undertand why you prefer ERA to FIP as a descriptive stat, given that it is pretty clearly worse at “measur[ing] pitcher performance in a way that is independent of defense and official scoring” than FIP.

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            2. I woud add that a hard contact factor would not by itself solve the problem you identify. For example, a hard hit grounder is less likely to result in a hit than a softly hit line drive. Now it’s true that, all else being equal, harder hit is better (and a line drive will usually be harder hit than a grounder). But just adding a factor for how hard the ball is hit misses important data as well.

              IMO hopes for improving measurement of pitcher performance probably are more likely to be realized if we find more objective ways to distinguish between ground balls, line drives, and fly balls (and differentiate between infield and out field flies). If I had only one piece of information available to predict if a given ball in play was to result in a hit, the key question I would have would be “is is a line drive?” not “how hard was it hit?”

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  86. Finally! MLB and players are close to an agreement and the international signing subject has come to a somewhat form of a resolution to eqiutable distribution of the talent. There will be a separate restraint on the amount of money spent to sign international amateur free agents from nations such as the Dominican Republic, Venezuela and Cuba. There also will be a committee established to review the system for international signings, leaving open the possibility of a new system during the term of the deal. This will really benefit teams wlth fiscal responsibility and rely on the skills of their scouts and evaluators. The Phillies being one of those teams. I amsure teams like the Yankees, Rangers, Bosox, Braves and a few others, are not particularly liking this.

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    1. Multiple reports stating that certain Type A FAs will be reclassified as Type B effective immediately. Madson has been mentioned as one of the players ‘might’ be affected. The Phils would still receive the compensation pick, but would not get a pick from the team who signs him.

      Hopefully the reports are wrong, at least in their speculation that Madson would be pegged as a Type B.

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      1. Changes occuring…but some may be put off until 2012….next week they are suppose to decide which changes are immediate and those that will be later.

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          1. Unreal. Phils have to surrender their 1st rd pick for signing Papelbon before the new CBA was executed. At the same time, Type A signings by other teams since the CBA was executed will not result in the surrendering of the signing team’s 1st rd pick. In short, Phils lose a 1st rd pick by signing Paps last week but won’t get it back for Madson (they’ll get a comp pick only). Front officer blunder perhaps?

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    2. Before people start gushing over the greatness of the bravo new world in Latin America, how about waiting to see what the system actually is .
      Word has it , it would be a hard cap, as opposed to the luxury tax system of the regular draft. Though Foreign signees benefited from past lack of draft there, now they are disadvantaged , who’s to say that would not bring complications.
      And a hard cap would logically be weighted by teams. The usual method for weighting would be inverse won-loss records with higher spending limits for teams with worse records.
      Philly, with the best won-lost records of the past 2 seasons would be disadvantaged if that is the case.
      Wait for the final text, might be different, might be next to nothing.

      Madson- same deal. Have heard compensation will be unaffected in first season, along with numerous other theories. Heard that in new CBA type B’s will be eliminated also. So maybe they get nothing. Guy who originally said that , though , came back later and said it would remain unchanged in 1st year. It is who you want to believe until the final document is revealed.

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      1. Any system is better then the ‘no’ system they currently operate under in the Latin/International FA arena. When clubs like the Yankees, Rangers and a few others voice disillusionment at the change…then I know it is more fair for all MLB.

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  87. Now that Jim Crane is Astro’s official owner, with a 10% discount offered to entice moving to the AL West, looks like Ed Wade will be coming back to Philly….he and Tal Smith did not attend Crane’s first official news conference and Crane had promised changes in the organization. Welcome back Ed.

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  88. If he comes back to Philly (in what role?) I’d hope he brings back Cosart and Singleton with him.

    Blaming Wade is just a way to relieve the owners’ responsibility. Wade can only play the hand (players) he’d been given.

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  89. Just saw the Phils acquired Ty Wiggington…a much cheaper option then Cuddyer and can play the same positions. More money for JRoll or another move.

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    1. Picked him for a PTBDL or cash. Interesting signing. He certainly brings some pops but another guy who is not exactly agile anywhere defensively. I hope this doesnt mean that we’ll overpay for Rollins

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    2. Wigginton is not very good, but the move is not bad at all with, perhaps, several implications.

      Wigginton can play first until Howard returns, but the Phils may actually try to get some games from Thome at first, also.

      Brown is not blocked from playing LF as he would be had the Phils signed Cuddyer to a three-year deal.

      Wigginton can fill in at third base and second base in a pinch, but the Phils should still try to get a super-utility IF like Maicer Izturis who plays good defense and can be the primary guy off the bench to play SS, 3B and 2B. If the Phils add such a guy and re-sign Rollins, the infield should be OK.

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    1. Heh, yeah, my reaction exactly.

      Though assuming they aren’t giving up a significant prospect, I actually like this move a lot.

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      1. Make that three of us. Good move to shore up the team and prepare for an injury so a crappy hitting utility infielder isn’t your 3Baseman for 3 months. Bad move if the PTBNL is Phillippe Aumont or even Julio Rodriguez.

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        1. Though “a lot” may be saying too much. I guess his defensive deficiencies are weighing more on me the more I think about it. But he’s cheap, positionally flexible, and a better overall option than Martinez. Cuddyer – even though I was probably the first person around here to positively mention his name – would better fulfill the same role, but at a MUCH higher cost. So yeah, on balance I still like the move.

          The extra money can be applied to SS. Yes, I, like a lot of people including yourself, am a bit worried that they may overpay for Rollins. But with the options looking increasingly like overpaying for Rollins, overpaying for Furcal, or ending up with a Betancourt level player … maybe in this instance overpaying a bit is justified. No, I don’t think Galvis is ready.

          I do also hope this is a sign that Brown maybe gets his chance after all.

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  91. According to Colorado paper, the PTBNL only happens if Phillies pick up his 2013 option. They are also reporting that Colorado is paying 1/2 of his $4M salary in 2012. If both of those things reported is true, its a very good deal and also improves the bench by removing either Valdez or Martinez from the 2012 roster.

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    1. If this is true I like this move, love risk (just money no player) and I think it is the end of Valdez, I just think Charlie likes Mini Mart more + he can play CF when Vic is out and Mayberry is busy elsewhere.

      For the most part if this is a he plays occasionally in the field and PH this doesn’t seem bad at all. (you sit Brown against LH and move Mayberry to left and put Wigginton at first)

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      2. I can play CF too…Martinez is a terrible, terrible defensive CF who has no business there. He looks like a converted AA shortstop playing CF in the majors…which ain’t pretty. As for being a switch-hitter. Yes, it truly is a skill to be able to hit below the Mendoza line from BOTH sides of the plate.

        Valdez>>>>>Martinez

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          2. Yet Valdez is a better hitter and defender. You’re looking at the difference between a .249 AVG/.634 OPS guy and a .196 AVG/.556 OPS. One is a viable backup for SS…the other shouldn’t be starting at any level above AA. For the cost difference of maybe $250K, you stick with Valdez over Mini-Mart.

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    2. Valdez is so much better than Martinez that I can’t even comprehend that anyone especially Charlie would think otherwise.

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      1. I think Valdez is better, but not THAT much better. He is a better hitter, but not by that much. Defensively, I’d take Valdez also, but his defensive metrics are actually a bit worse than Martinez’ in 2011 (though Valdez had better defensive marks in previous years – underlining the perils of relying too much on single year defensive metrics, especially for par time players).

        If they can’t upgrade the IF bench role – and I think it’s a lot harder to do that than most people think – then it should be Valdez.

        Oh, and as absurd as Amaro’s comment about Valdez being the team’s MVP in 2010 was, taking another look at his 2010 season, he really did a better job than I remembered. It likely was his career year, but I’d take that kind of year from my bench infielder any day. The GIDPs do drive me crazy though.

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  92. Martinez is likely gone unless they believe he can learn some more about hitting (at age 28?) to yield at least a .250 BA and .300 plus oba. If they want to participate in the Rule 5 draft, somebody will have to be shaved from the 40.

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  94. Reports are that the luxury tax threshold will not rise this year. That is probably a bad sign for the Phillies more than perhaps any other team. Even if they end up going over the threshold, they won’t go over by much. People were starting to assume a payroll in the 185 million range; I think that is increasingly unlikely.

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    1. 22.5% is what I read for the penalty over the threshold, which is not so delibilating to some clubs that do go over.

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    2. The threshold for 2011 was $178m. By going over $7M to get to $185 it would cost the Phillies $1.575M in luxury tax. I doubt that would cause them to skip out on a deal that they think makes sense.

      By I don’t think they will need to go over that level to complete their 2012 roster based on the moves they’ve made so far. They have 13 players under contract for $127m plus probably $25M for Pence&Hamels. That’s $152m for 15 players. They can re-up Mayberry, Herndon, Bastardo, Stutes, Worley, and Schwimmer/DeFratus for about $3M total. That’s 21 players for $155M. Kendrick, Valdez, Francisco are arbitration eligible and will probably cost under $8M combined, putting them at 24 players at $163M. That leaves $15M to get a shortshop before hitting the luxury cap.

      $15M per season should certainly be enough to get a Rollins at SS.

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      1. You are probably correct – and I want to be clear that I don’t think that staying under the cap would be some sort of disaster. They are at this point, though, precluded from another significant FA signing beyond closer and SS. Which is probably fine. But it wasn’t that long ago that you had people around her – and in the media – arguing for (a) a significant 3B acquisition, (b) re-signing Oswalt, or (c) a significant LF acquisition. None of which appear likely now.

        Some of us suggested that weeks ago, for payroll and other reasons, none of that was very realistic. And people responded “non, no, there’s PLENTY of money available.” Well it looks more and more as if those of us who talked about salary constraints were correct. (This isn’t directed at you; as I recall, you have always been one of the reasonable people w/r/t salary issues.

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  95. If the plan is to plug Wigginton in at 1B and leave Mayberry in LF I like the move even more. And if he gives you something close to his career avgs .265 BA and .768 OPS he should be a decent run producer until Howard comes back.

    The only thing I’m not sure of is his ability to play 3B for any extended period of time but then they might not even be thinking that way.

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    1. Wigginton is below average at 3b but he’s not terrible (think Greg Dobbs). He isn’t a permanent solution at the position but he could play for an extended period without killing the defense and his offense would be much better that having Valdez/Martinez playing there everyday.

      I do expect he will get much of the time at 1b early in the season until Howard is ready to return.

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  96. I’ll preface this post by saying that I’m not an Amaro basher. Quite the opposite in fact. But I’m a bit surprised he hasn’t gotten his ballz busted a bit here for failing to see how changes in the CBA might effect 2012 draft pick compensation. We sign Paps a week later than we did and we wouldn’t need to forfeit our 1st rounder.

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