BA Top 20: Phillies get hosed on the Eastern League list

Top Prospect Lists

Okay, “hosed” was used for effect, but I am a bit surprised the R-Phillies didn’t sneak at least one guy on to the list. Derrick Mitchell, Austin Hyatt, and Matt Rizzotti all put up statistically worthy campaigns, but all 3 are a tad advanced in terms of age. Hyatt’s 2nd half maybe should have warranted consideration, as he posted a 62/15 K to BB rate in 55 innings post-all star break and allowed just 4 home runs. He is 25 though and lacks projection, which is where BA focuses these lists. That said, I think there’s a decent chance he ends up with a more productive major league career than a number of guys who did make the list. The other options that might have made it were Justin De Fratus and Phillippe Aumont, but both guys were promoted to LHV and probably didn’t have enough innings to merit consideration, especially because both are relief prospects. Freddy Galvis, a long time favorite of BA, also did not make the list after putting up the best offensive numbers of his career (by a wide margin)

I’m working on a revamp of my “statistical toy” that I talked about a few months ago, blending it with what I used for the SONAR scores a few years ago to try and create something “better” and more valuable, and when I do this, I will run the numbers for each league and put together Top 20 lists of my own, which will be fun to compare with the lists put up by BA. Look for that later.

73 thoughts on “BA Top 20: Phillies get hosed on the Eastern League list”

  2. Rivero had a nice year and is only 23. He was a surprise. i hope he can build on his year. His defense was suspect but he was trying to pickup a new position (3B). I agree with James that there were some deserving guys and he mentioned them.

    I hope Rizz gets a wake-up call. I don’t think he’ll be playing on the big club but he could help some AL team someday. There weren’t many calls this year from people on this site to have Rizz on the post-season roster. Remember last year, they were calling for Rizz to play in the post-season.

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    1. No, this year it was Savery, Brown, etc. Every year we get the standard calls for prospect X who’s really killing it at AAA/AA ball to replace player Y who’s stinking it up with the big club because hey, “they couldn’t do any worse”.

      The Rizz support dried up when his performance reverted back to a more normal range.

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  3. I’ll be very surprised if Hyatt, Cloyd and Cisco don’t all end up as serviceable major league bullpen pieces as soon as late next year. Also, with another good year next season, Mitchell will definitely have a chance to be a major league 4th or 5th outfielder. I’m not sold on Galvis but he certainly had a much better year than expected. Rivero doesn’t hit well enough to carry his glove. The eastern league list next year will be the key one.

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    1. Not sure about any of those guys myself. I don’t understand any (except maybe Hyatt) to live in 90s with their fastball, and you simply don’t see many high-leverage relievers who get by with an 80s fastball. Whether that’s preconcieved notions about what a reliever should be or what, I highly doubt the Org looks at any of them as relief prospects, and the best case I see is Hyatt carving out a Kyle Kendrick like career path and if he was breaking in with the Padres, maybe even better.

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    2. You’re not sold on Galvis but think Mitchell will definately have a chance to be a ML OF?

      I’m not sold on Galvis either but he’s got a much better chance of having a major league career than does Mr. Mitchell.

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      1. Mitchell plays a great outfield and is a smart baseball player. He has the look to go with his game.

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    3. When Derrick Mitchell repeats AA next year, maybe he will put up numbers good enough to be EL top 20 next year.

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        1. He won’t be claimed (because he’s a minor league free agent, not Rule 5 eligible), but he will likely be in AA with another organization.

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          1. Minor league free agents are still eligible for the Rule 5 draft. R.A. Dickey was signed by one team a couple years ago as a minor league FA and then claimed in the Rule 5 by another. Rare but it happens.

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            1. Yeah, the key word is “was signed”. So, if a minor league free agent is signed between around November 1, when minor league free agents are awarded free agency and around December 21 when the Rule 5 draft comes around, then they are the property of the signing team and can be claimed, but if they are not signed they are still minor league free agents and not eligible for selection. So, minor league free agents are not eligible for the Rule 5 draft.

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            1. Who cares? Are we really arguing about a guy who’s max ceiling places him as maybe a 5th OF? Let’s move on.

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    4. I sort of “got” the Mitchell enthusiasm when he was bashing the ball mid season or so. But looking at the year as a whole, even setting aside his age/level, we’re talking about an outfielder who has only mid range power, who strike out three times as often as he walks, whose career high in BA is ,265, and who, in context (going from a pitchers park/league to a hitter’s park/league) took a step backwards as a hitter this past year. Okay, I know some of the people here don’t care about the BB and are putting undue weight on the RBIs, but even so, what is there to see here? He doesn’t need “another good year” to get a shot at a 4th/5th OF position, he needs to make dramatic strides forward, and, given his age, it better be next year. Okay, he supposedly has some tools and basic athleticism to make that leap forward a possibility, but still …

      I mean, I’m sure he is a nice guy and all, but why are we talking about him? Others have commented on the oddity of preferring him to Galvis, but to amplify that, Galvis plays a position where the offensive expectations are much lower, is a better fielder at his position, wasn’t far behind as a hitter, and is 3 years younger. And Mitchell is the more interesting prospect?

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      1. I think Mitchell is interesting because, regardless of where you think he is right now, there was no reason to believe he could take such a large step up after going up a level. The other reason is that he is said to have a very high level of athleticism (fast, good body, can hit the ball a mile), which may bode well for further improvement. But, to remain interesting, he has to continue to improve at a steady rate. He’s just an oddity more than anything and, personally, I have no idea what to think of him.

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        1. Huh, this makes zero sense. What step forward despite moving up a level? His OPS is the same as last season, despite being in a hitter’s park. Actually, he’s 1 OPS point lower. His performance this season has to be termed disappointing, as he failed to take the normal performance jump that guys take in moving from CLW to Reading. He was 24 for the entire season, which is not young for an OF prospect in AA. His OPS was .769, not good for an OF and not hard to beat among his own teammates: Susdorf (age 25, .902), Rizzotti (Age 25, .903), Rivero (age 23, .773), Oberbeck (age 25, .863), even the light hitting Galvis (age 21, .721) isn’t far off the OPS that Mitchell put up. None of these guys is regarded as a solid major league prospect, with Galvis being on the top of the pile, due to his D. The bat of Mitchell simply wasn’t anything special in 2011. For a 24 year old in AA to be more than a fringe OF prospect, his bat had better be special at that level.

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          1. He does have good size and speed for a big man…he has 4 above average tools…he just doesn’t make contact enough. Oh wait…that can be said for our other toolsy OFs…Hewitt, Collier, Altherr, James etc etc

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      2. Mitchell is a very poor man’s version of what John Maybery was 3 years ago. The difference being Mayberry always had 80 power potential, which in itself is enough to keep giving you chances to make it. This Mitchell stuff is a pipe dream.

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          1. If he wants to prove us wrong an OBP above .326 wouldn’t hurt.

            Seriously, I don’t get the constant shouting about the merits of a low-ranked prospect. If this is Mitchell, his family or friends, this doesn’t help his case. Mitchell’s future will be determined by what he does on the field. What I or anyone else thinks isn’t going to change that.

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        1. DurhamDiamondDerby in NC….you hit the nail on the head, not what but who you know.
          That was quick. Where did all the mediocrity go?

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        2. Lyle Mouton is his upside. Mouton was a 16 HR, 18 SB guy in AA at age 24 with questionable plate discipline. Exploded the next year, had about four years as a decent 4th outfielder.

          Downside is somewhere along the line of T.J. Bohn. A cup of coffee in the majors, a productive year or two at best in AAA.

          (I chose both players from a list of outfielders who debuted aged 26 who were 6’4″. Expanding the list to 25 years or older and taller than 6’4″ yielded no insights beyond including John Mayberry Jr.)

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  4. Since there are money issues. Can we do Steve Susdorf and Overbeck for Francisco and Gload. And tell Cholly they are both 32 year old. Overbeck went for terrible to pedestrain the next month to all star in September. If they don’t work out Ruben can get an number of oldies,
    Certainly if Susdorf had remained healthy he would be on that list.

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    1. Would love it of Susdorf was ready to step into the LH hitting OF role. Needs some AAA ABs I would think however.

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          1. Eric Christian Valent Bats: Left, Throws: Left Height: 6′ 0″, Weight: 191 lb.
            Get your facts straight dippy.

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            1. 6’0″ was his UCLA listed height which they realized he wasn’t the day he showed up to Florida. I never said he wasn’t a LH batter/ thrower so not sure where that comes from.

              Again, did Valent ever hit .340 in AA? Didn’t think so, dippy.

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            2. In case you were wondering, he hit .258 in AA and .272 in AAA. So no, Susdorf isn’t Valent without an arm. But nice try.

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            1. My man thanks Alan, I just found that site through google. From a guy who mostly reads and rarely post this site/board is the best on the web. Best part is when trolls come through and no one comments back. Keep up the good work to everyone who contibutes.

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    3. If they need a LH hitter for the bench, they can stick with John Bowker who they will still have rights to, and the currently on 40 man roster Brandon Moss. I say Both of those would be higher ranked than Susdorf for that position and might give better results. And those who wail about the age of Derrick Mitchell, I recall Susdorf is about 9 months older , also still in AA, and as a L thrower not considered a CF, offers little positional flexibility.

      Overbeck, if considered (also applies to Susdorf as far as being considered) ought to at least offer some viability as a fill in at 3B and the OF.. I look for Mayberry to move to full time LF, with occasional fill in from a LH reserve OF, the non-tendering of Benny Francisco, the trading of Domonic Brown, and I believe all of those would have to happen before Overbeck is considered as reserve OF/IF.
      Don’t think they will protect Overbeck or Susdorf in Rule 5 Draft, so maybe some other team desperate for bench players will take them out of the picture.

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      1. “the trading of Domonic Brown”

        I certainly hope that doesn’t happen. That would be a drastic, fairly ridiculous over reaction.

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          1. I think most experts would agree that Brown is a better player than Stewart right now and certainly has more upside. I think the Rockies would say yes immediately to that deal.

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            1. Though we have athletic OFs coming out our ears for the next few years…..not many 3rd basemen.

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  5. Cloyd pitched well this afternoon in his first start in the AFL—2 IP, 2 Ks, no hits. Gillies not in starting lineup. Overbeck at first.

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      1. I’d be surprised if Diekman isn’t taken in the Rule 5. Regardless of control, someone is going to take a flyer on a lefty reliever who throws 94.

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  6. There r a lot of references to a lot of different players being claimed. I have a question in that regard. Can an unlimited number of those that are eligible to be claimed actually be claimed? Or is there a limit to the number that can be claimed from each organization? Once one player is claimed, can a team then add more to the protected list. It would seem odd that one org. Could lose all of those eligible to be claimed.

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    2. Yeah, there is a limit , 40 man roster per team. A team must have an opening on the 40 man roster to make a selection, and once they hit 40 they are out. That is in the Major League portion, in the minor league portion players can be selected if not on the “around ” 37 on the AAA or AA roster, so many could be taken there, but there are few available for that, and the quality is questionable.

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      1. Thanks for the replies. I get the concept I think. A team could lose an unlimited number of rule 5 eligible players not protected by their 40 man, but by virtue of the other teams having to have room on their own 40 man and then having to keep them on the big club for the whole season, there is an inherent limitation. I wonder what percentage of the rule 5 selections stick with the new club and are not offered back. The Philadelphia have had some success with Hearndon, M. Mart. And I believe Victorino. Any others?

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        1. Victorino was Rule 5 drafted twice and offered back both times. Ist time he was selected by San Diego from the Dodgers and offered back and the Dodgers took him back. The 2nd time the Phillies selected him from the Dodgers and offered him back, but the Dodgers did not take him back. Both times he had to be offered on Waivers to any team before offering him back, so this may indicate teams make mistakes sometimes.

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        2. I’m not sure how successful I’d call Martinez.

          Others?
          Werth
          I think Dave Hollins was a Rule V (20 years ago)

          I don’t know of any others that could be considered a success.

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          1. Werth was not a Phllies Rule Five pick. You are correct that Dave Hollins was. So was the immortal Sil Campusano. So was Todd Pratt. Phils lost George Bell in the Rule 5. They also lost Willie Hernandez, who came back six years later and made the ’83 post-season roster, and Manny Trillo, who came back six years later and helped them win a World Series in ’80.

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            1. Yeah, Werth was nontendered by the Dodgers.

              And Willie Hernandez, You’re talking about a former American League MVP.

              And Herndon, I suppose some have already mentally removed from consideration for next season’s roster and forgotten already.

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  7. Tyson Gillies plays CF today—-leads off and grounds out to 2nd on 2-0 count. So far so good—pulled no muscles.

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    2. So, as I recall from reading the box, Gillies leads off, goes 1 for 4 with a walk, and at .250
      Overbeck bats 2nd, 1 for 4 at .143
      Ruf at DH 1 for 4 with a HR and 2 RBI’s at .250
      Rosenberg 1 inning with no Runs allowed at .000 ERA
      Shreve goes 1 inning , gives up a HR and gets a blown save.
      A workout on field, to go with out of game workouts, a chance to be seen by others at a different level of competition, different players, in game results , see how it develops- maybe some can move up more than they would have otherwise, or the opposite may apply.

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      1. I like Ruf. Not a real prospect in many eyes, and I agree he is not all-star or above avg gifted. But he has a spark. He just performs. This AFL, he’ll be able to make a statement, “you know, I can play with the Harpers and Trouts–I may not be as good, but I will be an extra threat along with them.” I hope he can make that statement–good guy who can hit field fairly well.

        Reading will be a better test. He could hit 25-30 HRs there, make a bit of a name for himself.

        Upside: Backup 1B/OF (if he gets a chance) or serviceable starting 1B on a lower team, kind of like a Rico Brogna, not a great hitter, but winds up with 90+ RBI because he is mechanically sound and can drive the ball consistently.

        Chance of achieving: Not real high, but I pull for him.

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        1. Agree with you DurDiaDerby….Ruf is a guy we can pull for, and hopefully he achieves some measure of success at the big league level. He does have the body type and strength to square up and drive the ball.
          That was quick. Where did all the mediocrity go?

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  8. So, uh . . . how bout those Scottsdale Scorpions? Gillies is in the lineup for the second straight game, and at the moment is 1/1 with walks and a stolen base. It’s the AFL, so his stats are going to be inflated, but if he can stay healthy and show speed and patience at the plate, that’s huge for the system going into next year.

    #omgdidwereallyjustgetshutoutingamefivewtfwtfwtf

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    1. Stats could be inflated, but competition is the best at the AA/AAA level. Pitchers are close to mLB ready.

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        1. Hard to guage based on run average…..pitchers are only pitching 2 or 3 innings apiece…must be on strict pitch counts. And the Arizona air could affect flight of the ball.

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  9. Yeah time to cheer for Gillies and the Scorpions. He finished 2-2 2BB 1HBP 1 SB and I had the tracker up and it looked like he scored from 2nd on a SF to right. Ruf was0-4.

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  10. Tyson –a DNP today. ‘Beck one for one, 3 BBs—Diekman, oh yea—-4 batters -2 Ks, and gets a save.
    And will B.Harper get a hit in the AFL?

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    1. Looks like Harper and Trout are regulars ….no rotation for them….Brown and Gillies will alternate starts in CF it appears—perhaps whether RHP/LHP starter..

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  11. Can’t say Phillies got hosed in EL top 10, even in jest. Mentioning Rizzotti as a possible candidate is ludicrous, the guy took a step back this year and is dreadfully overaged. Galvis had a chance toward the end of the list and might have made it with a full season in EL. Hyatt also an outside shot.

    Very good to see Gillies healthy. If he can stay healthy, he is a guy who could move through the system quickly, based on elite speed and defense. Both of those die quick with leg woes, so staying healthy through 2012 is key. If he can pull that off, I think we see him in Philly in 2013.

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  12. The International League Top 20 was posted on Friday. The league lists work off minimum time in the league rather than rookie eligibility, so it’s the one place current MLB players pop up. Domonic Brown (#6) and Vance Worley (#15) made the cut. It’s a deep list so that’s a strong showing.

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