General Chatter, Week of 26 September 2011

Phillies Chatter

My apologies for missing the last few weeks with the weekly posting, I’ve been busy with other projects. Here is your spot to discuss anything not related to the specific posts here on the front page. It’s my goal to try and keep each post here on topic, so please be respectful of that. Thanks.

276 thoughts on “General Chatter, Week of 26 September 2011”

  1. I like moving Chase Utley to the 2-hole in the lineup. But, would have liked to see Pence stay in the 5-hole since he has been there upon arriving and the power provided. Victorino will give you more speed in the 3-hole. I say LF platoon all the way with JMJ and Ibanez. As in previous playoff series, the second part of the lineup will determine the Phillies success.

    At this point, I am not sure about the relief pitching in the 7th and 8th. Can’t trust Lidge or Bastardo right now. Halladay, Lee, and Hamels will need to pitch deep. I have a good feeling about Oswalt and would not be shocked at a CG for him.

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  2. I like your idea about Vic in the three spot……facing Kennedy/Greinke/Gallardo…all tough right handers gives us lefties from one through four.

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    1. So aggressive maybe we can just beat them 🙂
      I find it hard to believe Savery won’t be on the roster. Yeah he is unproven but he is also unseen. How many long guys to you need?
      Anyway I think Bastardo will not only be fine but I predict a stellar post season for him.

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      1. In the playoffs—will the networks cover the games?……….and if so, then I guess that means we will miss out, and not be able to hear ‘No-Doubles Defense’ Wheels?

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        1. TBS has never been more welcome on my tv. Could you imagine if they hire Wheels for the playoffs???? Ugh

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  4. The four team race for the wildcard shows why it is important to have the best players on the roster even the eleventh pitcher or the 25 man. If the Phils were in that position we would have to thank Dennys.

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    1. Yea, no doubt the Braves/Cardinals or Rays/Sox are in their situation because of the poor performance of their 11th pitcher and 25 man on the bench. Has nothing to do with guys like D. Lowe stinking up the place or John Lester posting a 10+ ERA in September.

      You can keep trying but pointing to a guy who’s long gone as an example of anything related to the wildcard race is a losing argument.

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        1. Only reason they are scraping for a pitcher for tomorrow is because their regular rotation has been terrible for the last month. Their issue isn’t the last man in the pen but rather starting pitchers #1,2,3,4,5..

          And that’s really my point. Teams don’t win/lose because of the bench players or their mop-up relievers. A team’s fate is decided by the guys with the big salaries.

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      2. And Baez is such an odd name to bring up in this context – but for injuries, he may not have pitched a high leverage inning all year (okay, I exagerate but not by much). And because we did have a bunch of injuries in the pen, by the time he was pitching a few – very few – high leverage innings, there weren’t many options, except for AAA types who would have been as bad, or prematurely bringing up some of our real reliever prospects. When people got healthy, and it was clear that guys like Bastardo and Stutes could do the job, he was released.

        All in all, one of the oddest things around here is the obsessive focus over the 24th and 25th spots on the active roster. (Though that said, with an injured Utley at the start of the season, and Rollins being an injury risk, starting the season with two middle inielders who can’t hit their way out of a paper bag was in retrospect a mistake. One would hope that, despite a tight payroll, they would find a better becnh option for next year.)

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        2. The reason there is such an “obsessive focus” on the 24th and 25th roster spots on this web site is pretty obvious. This web site focuses on minor league talent. The ultimate goal is for them to play on the Phillies. The Phillies are a great team with little room for upcoming prospects, so the main chance for a prospect to make the team is as the 24th or 25th man. So, you see comments such as: “If only they got rid of Baez, then we could get a look at DeFratus (or Aumont or Schwimer).” Sometimes it manifests as a complaint against a Baez or a Martinez, buit the implication is still that if they weren’t here, maybe we could see Savery or Brown.

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      3. One game Is there a inferior player on those rosters that cost them one game???
        You can’t help injuries or poor performance but you can insure as much quality as possible.

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  5. Phils’ top prospect Dom Brown k’s on three pitches in the 13th for the big club. What a crazy game against the Braves. The Philadelphia are likely better off losing regardless of the end result of a Bravest vs. Cards one game playoff. Hard to give in at this point though. I give them credit for the effort in this game considering the have nothing but the 102 record and pride going.

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  6. Great job by the young arms tonight! Stutes, Schwimer,De Fratus, and Herndon all pitched well. Really good to see Stutes turn it around. His slider was looking deadly. De Fratus has a nice fastball as he was hitting 95 mph.

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  8. If I were Madsen I would think hard about moving on. Why go somewhere else when it is so much fun here. How many millions do you need? Well ask our old right fielder.
    Utley looks great in the two hole where his little game adds to his big game.

    I am sure the youngster will have a great plane ride along with the vets,

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  9. Why do I wish we were playing the Dbacks instead of the Cards?

    Looking forward to their junkballers pitching backwards to us.

    I have a bad feeling about this.

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    1. Hope LaRussa throws Carpenter on Sunday……short rest and all. I am sure Phillies have something special for him–they owe him from his last start against them..

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  10. I’m way too excited/happy for “I told you so”, but Hunter Pence will finish the season with an OPS+ of about 137 (B-R isn’t updated yet). He had a 133 OPS+ when he came to the Phillies, and I predicted he’d finish there or better. Dude has been awesome since the trade. He hit 11 HR in about 200 PA with the Phillies after hitting 11 in 400 PA with the Astros. Also drew 23 BB in those 200 PA, after drawing only 30 in 400 PA with Houston.

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    1. One odd good stat you might include in your stats is the fact that Pence only struck out
      18 times against LHP , His energy level has been fantastic. That game winning hit was memorable on maybe the greatest night of regular season baseball ever. What are the chances the Phils set a record and Cholly passes Mauch in the same game.

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    2. Yea, Pence was everything he was advertised to be. He plays hard, looks goofy, and really helped to deepen their line-up by pushing Ibanez and Polonco down into more natural spots.

      Here’s an early marker for 2012. The Phillies sign Raul Ibanez to a 1-year deal – $4m deal to be their 5th OF, take Ross Gload’s roll as primary LH bat off the bench and provide insurance if Mayberry struggles and Brown isn’t ready.

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      1. That being said, I’m still concerned about how Pence’s contract over the next few years affects the Phillies ability to fill a few other holes.

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        1. I think Pence is a strong extension candidate this offseason. The price only goes up as he nears free agency. I’d like to see an extension for Hamels and a 4-5 yearer for Pence before ST. I also think that Kendrick is an extension candidate. I’m still thinking north of $4mm if he goes thru arbitration again, so why not just extend him for 3yrs/10mm. Just a thought

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            1. Mix bag of legal tendering?

              If Jimmy gets 13/14m per year, I seriously hope that its with another team. I’m sticking to my guess from May, 3 yrs, 4th yr team option with 2m buyout, 30m guaranteed.

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            2. JRoll said yesterday he would prefer 5 years…..’6 or 7 is maybe too much, he doesn’t sure he wants to be playing at 38/39′. Talk of 3/39 was thrown out by the CSN people.

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          2. Too many long term contracts. No more than three year deals across the board. Add a club option / buyout for Hamels. Kendrick is a year to year signing, maybe a 2 year deal at best. Worley shows Kendrick is replaceable. The payroll situation needs to come down to earth to ensure long term winning. Ibanez should not be resigned either. Rollins will get a 5 year deal from a desperate team. Anyway, who cares? It is playoff time.

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      2. I agree, I think there’s a good chance guys like Raul and Lidge come back on 1 year deals at MUCH lower prices and lesser roles. I’d love Raul as an extra of at $2M and Lidge as a 6th/7th inning guy on an incentive laden, low guarantee deal.

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        1. I’d love Raul as a color commentator on Sunday afternoon games. If you can’t see that he’s depriving the team of much needed wins, you need a little lesson on statistics. He seems to be a wonderful person and he gives it his all, but we need Brown and Mayberry to continue to get at bats. Right now, Mayberry is a much better player than Raul. Much better.

          Lidge would be fine if he wants maybe $2-2.5 million. And I’d be fine if they save that money and use it for an experienced left out of the ‘pen. But Lidge seems to have adjusted and has actually been fairly stable the 4 or 5 outings. He can still be good, but he’s just a completely different pitcher. Not dominant, not great, but still fairly effective – a classic 7th inning or one or two out 8th inning guy. Nothing wrong with that.

          On another note, what an outstanding end of the year performance for our young relievers!!!! DeFratus finally worked out his jitters and started to kick back and throw the mid-90s fastball I’ve been waiting to see and was told he has. Well, he does have it and once he hits that mid-90s range, he’s an entirely different pitcher, just as Madson is when he throws 94-96.

          Biggest story was that Bastardo seemed to take Charlie’s suggestion that pitch off his fastball and, once he did that and made a few adjustment, like magic, the dominant Bastardo of early in the year suddently reappeared.

          Stutes was filthy and Schwimer looked fantastic too. If you’re the Phillies upper management, how could you not smile after watching the bullpen these last two games. It was fabulous.

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          1. catch…..and add to the group later in 2012, maybe Aumont…and a pretty good and youthful bullpen. Ruben will have lots of trade fodder next year to work with for the July trade deadline!

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          2. Catch, I’m with you. Raul seems like a great/ knowledgeable teammate but that certainly doesn’t mean he deserves another year as a player. His -1.3 WAR isn’t an accident, especially on this team where he’s gotten more than his share of PA’s with runners on base. It’s time for Mayberry, and hopefully Brown, to step up and fill that roll.

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      3. If they give Ibanez $4M I’ll be stunned. He’s beyond cooked. His OBP this year is .289 and he’s one of the worst defensive outfielders in the majors. Hopefully he rides off into the sunset.

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    3. Your prediction for the rest of the year was right, if anything even on the low side. You were absolutely right about that and deserve credit for it. And he has been legitimately awesome for the Phillies as a hitter. I’m not going to quibble with any of his numbers – I can’t even say that his performance was BABIP driven (his BABIP with the Phillies was a little over his career norms, but that was not the driver of his performance.) He hit with more power and drew more walks than in his pre-Phillies career. His defense IMO has not been as good as advertised, but I would certainly take the total package.

      Does that mean I’ve changed my mind about the trade? No. Not yet, anyway. To be clear, if, over the next 2 years plus this year’s playoffs, he’s the guy he’s been so far for the Phillies, I will change my mind. Absolutely. But I don’t think he will be. Now, even if he is the player I think he is, the trade still could work out. Certainly the Phillies win this year and he is the difference, I will be the first to admit that it was a good trade. And even failing that, it could work out. But it’s going to be quite a while before all the long term implications of the trade play out.

      So … what kind of hitter is Pence? The guy who, before this season, had an wOBA of 116? The guy who had a BABIP driven wOBA of a little over 130 for the Astros this season? Or the guy who had a superstar level wOBA of 158 for the Phillies this season? None of us know the answer to that question. But my opinion, is that I’ll go with a sample of 3099 PA – his career totals, including his time with the Phillies – over a sample of 236 PA – his time with the Phillies. His career wOBA is now 120 – better than it was at the time of the trade, but not IMO the kind of player worth the prospect haul the Phillies gave up.

      Simply put, I just don’t buy that Pence all of the sudden became a much better hitter simply by virtue of playing for the Phillies. Next year he will likely regress to his “real” level – a good, significantly above average hitter, but not a superstar. I understand that people have developed a number of theories as to why playing for the Phillies makes him a better hitter, but I don’t buy those theories. 235 PA doesn’t outweigh years of observations and tens of thousands of PA (of other players) contradicting those theories. Nor do I buy that is intangibles have spillover effects on the rest of the team. Especially a veteran team like the Phillies.

      Of course I would love to be proven wrong, and certainly there is value in having him on the roster for 2 years, even at what I consider to be his “real” level of play, and even at a salary that won’t be a significant bargain if I am right about his level of play. Just not IMO enough value to justify the cost in prospects.

      The prospects – I won’t go over the ground again, except to repeat that I like Singleton especially more than most people here, believing that his beta is low and ceiling very high, and to note that, if you want to give Pence credit for his legitimately great performance as a Phillie, you also need to take a look at how well Santana has been playing – I think the beta on him is lower than people think, and lower even than I thought.. A point that I made at the time remains true, though – even apart from the possibility that the prospects could have been stars for the Phillies, there is an opportunity cost involved here – those prospects are not available for trades to fill other holes (nor is the future salary for Pence available to fill those holes). Again, if Pence next year duplicates his performance this year, or if he drives the team to a WS championship this year, that won’t matter. But if he doesn’t, those are real concerns that haven’t gone away.

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      1. Larrym – totally respect your passion for and mastery of statistics and the obvious research you do to make well informed comments, but I really believe you have to factor in the intangibles and other influencing factors. Can it be coincidence that guys like Rowand and Werth become “the man” on new teams and struggle the way they do?

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        1. I just don’t buy the intangibles, so we will have to agree to disagree on that. Can it be a coincidence that guys like Rowand and Werth play well for some teams while struggling on other teams? The short answer is yes.

          But as I said, I’d love to be proven wrong in this case. And I will say that the type of improvement displayed by Pence with the Phillies (more BB especially) makes me think there is a small chance that I will be proven wrong. But it’s still a pretty small sample size. (I thought for a moment that part of it might be that he has a special ability to benefit from the ball park, but apparently not; he has played well at home for the Phillies, but most of his power has been on the road.)

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        2. If I can make a distinction here, I would say this: while I find it unlikely that playing for the Phillies will make Pence a better player over the long run, I think that’s something that I could be wrong about – I can at least construct a logical argument where that could be true. That’s an “intangible” argument I can at least respect, if not agree with.

          The notion that a player’s “intangibles” makes the players around him better is not something that I have the same level of respect for. Aside from perhaps a few relatively rare negative cases, and perhaps a few positive cases where a veteran player or players may exert a positive influence on younger players – and even there, I’m a bit of a skeptic – I don’t really even see the logic. I mean, how is it supposed to work? Chase Utley is going to be inspired to play better by Pence’s example? That’s an insult to Utley – and to the other player’s on the team. I don’t think the argument even makes sense.

          Nor do I buy the argument that the “little things” that a player does in the field that don’t show up in the statistics are intangibles that make a big difference. Especially now, when a lot of things that in the past weren’t measured are being measured (e.g., base running). That stuff is mostly small potatoes. And for the rare player who does all of the “little things” right – actually, that’s one of the good things about some of the modern metrics, as they are better at measuring that sort of thing than just “eyeballing” it.

          In Pence’s case, his numbers with the Phillies are fantastic – I see no reason to give him “extra Credit” beyond that.

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          1. Intangibles can’t be measured. Which is why they are intangible. But they certainly matter.

            You can draw plenty of parallels between baseball and your every day life, things you don’t really think about, but things that are really important.

            Just because something can’t be measured doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist. I would never advocate taking Player A over Player B if his statistics are far worse but his perceived intangibles were far better. But if you are talking about two players of similar baseball talent, give me the hard worker who never takes an AB off over the guy coasting on his ability alone.
            I don’t think Chase Utley sprinkles the rookies with magic dust, thus making his intangibles a positive value. I think he works his ass off, never takes a play off or an AB off, puts in his time, and is committed to the common cause. And for a youngster coming up, who might not really know how to “prepare” or work out or eat properly or “practice” properly, a guy like Utley can help.

            Most players fail to become stars because they can’t make adjustments, stay healthy, and learn that extra 5-10% needed. Having people to look up to, who have been through it, is important. Pence isn’t a rookie, but he’s also not a 10 year veteran. If he can learn something from a guy like Utley or Halladay, and in turn, pass that on to the next rung of guys, then he has positive intangibles, and that matters.

            Intelligence on a baseball field is an intangible, and one that is absolutely essential. This current Phillies team is filled with intelligent players.

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            1. Intangibles and heart unmeasurable….but critical.
              Milton Bradley:
              PA-4180….,271/.364/.440/.804—OPS+112…..wOBA-.351
              H. Pence:
              PA-3099…..292/.313/.485/.828—OPS+120…..wOBA-.356

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            2. Let’s remember that we are talking about two different things. The first is the ability for these “intangibles” the have an effect on other players. And even int he Bradley/Pence case, I don’t buy that any good/bad intangibles have that effect. Certainly their statistics don’t prove that. And I’d like to see some, you know, evidence, before I accept the reality of such an effect.

              As for the second issue, the effects of a player’s “intangibles” on his own performance, where I am less skeptical, is there something about the “intangibles” that explains the divergent career paths of Pence and Bradley? Quite possibly. But even setting aside for a moment that Bradley is probably an – relatively rare IMO – example of a player with some serious issues which really did destroy his career, we might also want to consider that health problems were a significant factor there, no?

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            3. In terms of effect on other players, at the major league level, I think any effects tend to be minimal. Very minimal. Most major league players have good baseball intelligence and work habits, or they wouldn’t be there. Some do have even more than that – an unusual ability to make adjustments/work on deficiencies, etc. – but I’m inclined to think that (a) that “skill” isn’t very transferable, by example or otherwise, and (b) it usually isn’t apparent until after the fact, when the “ability” is reflected in the statistics (see, e.g., Chase Utley).

              I also think that in this specific case, the fact that the Phillies already have a veteran team with intelligent players makes any alleged positive intangible effect from Pence even more tenuous.

              Finally, separate and apart from the abstract question of whether these kinds of intangible effects exist (and for minor league players especially, I do think “make up” is very important for future development), our ability to identify players with good “intangibles” is tenuous at bestt. 99% of the time it’s a case of someone who likes a player but can’t fully justify it based on real performance just imagining “intangibles” to justify his opinion. That isn’t directed at you. And the following is not directed at you or anyone else on this site, but is one of the reasons that I get passionate about this issue: there is a significant and disturbing disproportionate racial breakdown with regard to players who get good and bad reputations for intangibles.

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            4. If it makes a difference in their value, than by definition it can be measured. At this point we don’t have to tools to do so, which means placing any reliance on them is foolhardy.

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      2. Ultimately the Pence trade discussion is driven by three factors:

        1. Do the Phillies win a World Series or pennant this season?

        2. How much do you value a historically great season? (102 wins)

        3. What is the state of the franchise in 2014?

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      3. Larry I know you’ll appreciate this (sarcasm stressed), but when discussing potential post season roster spots on the radio the other day one of the hosts commented that he’d rather have Bill Conlin pinch run than Dom Brown (after others we’re calling for Brown’s inclusion for his speed alone) for at least Conlin knows the situation, how many outs there are, and that he needs to touch all the bases while running.

        I think that Brown has done a real job of alienating himself from the baseball public with his displays this year and that you really need to break down his numbers to find any silver lining (which you’ve done several times and we don’t need to rehash). Just wanted to point out that in our previous conversations that I wasn’t creating out of thin air any ill will that clearly now exists between Phillies fans and Brown (nor am I defending it). It’s there, plain and simple.

        On the flip side, I’m in total agreement with regards to Singleton. He was far too high a price to pay for Pence, who in turn is far more productive that I thought he’d be. Singleton’s upside is simply too great and IMO their were other pieces that RAJ could’ve used to pry Pence from the sinking ship now apparently known as the “Dead Wades”.

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        1. I put, if anything, negative weight on things said by radio hosts. Certainly there is a negative fan impression of Brown, but as you know I think it is irrational. Counterfactuals are always speculative, but I tend to think that Brown, kept on the major league roster, would have been fine, and even have quieted much of the criticism. Even if I am wrong, it wouldn’t have changed the regular season results in a meaningful way (even given how well Pence played, and assuming that Brown would have been just awful, we’re talking maybe 2 or 3 wins difference). Obviously all else being equal I’d prefer Pence to Brown for the post season, but IMO the chance that that would make the difference between winning and losing the WS is quite small. And of course if Brown was as bad as some people think, he would have been benched for Mayberry (since Ibanez sadly will likely play regardless).

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          1. LOL. Good point. Although I thin my point was more centered around the fact that Dom has done some serious damage to his rep. And yes I’m well aware of your opinion on that topic!!

            I am also in agreement with you RE Ibanez – as in I don’t understand how he keeps sending him out there. His defense alone makes him a liability; add to that a sub-.300 OBP and you get his -1.5 WAR. Mayberry should be playing every night on defensive metrics alone, add in his improved bat and its a no-brainer. I think this is the one area you can really call out Charlie on.

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  11. What’s the deal.with Zach Collliers suspension? I he was listed as being in the instructional league, was that a typo. Or does his suspension not beging until.the regular season?????

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    2. For 2012, Bastardo, Stutes, DeFratus, Savery, Aumont, Schwimer. For long term career potential, Bastardo, Aumont, DeFratus, Savery, Stutes, schwimer. Having said that, I think all 6 will be successful pitchers in the bigs barring injuries or a trade to the Astros.

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  13. One of the interesting thing the Phils have done in assembling this team (not sure if by design or not) is for a team that won it all just 3 years ago, they have a ton of players that are HUNGRY to win a world series. Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, Schneider, Polanco, Ibanez, Pence, and Valdez are all vets that have not won a world series, along with Mayberry, Bastardo, Worley, Stutes, and other young players yet to win a title.

    Does everyone understand the concept of no doubles defense?

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      1. I don’t get why people get one Wheels for saying these things. Watch other games. The other teams announcers say the same thing.

        There’s plenty of other things that he does that are annoying but it shouldn’t be those two.

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      2. “Middle in” isn’t at all nonsensical. It’s a ball that’s neither high nor low and on the inside part of the plate.

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        1. Your right. “Middle in” is a good term. It accurately describes a ball on the inside part of the plate where hitter like it. I just wish Wheels wouldn’t use the term 100 times a game.

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  14. 1) I could see Ibanez here for a 1 year 3 million$ deal forcing Dom Brown to spend a year in the minors figuring things out. Mayberry becomes the starting leftfielder and Ibanez gets about 250 ab’s subbing for him. Lidge is also offered 3 million for 1 year as they do need some people out there who were born before 1985.
    2) If Atlanta bites the bullet and includes Delgano, Teheren or Minor in a trade for Pence, they are in the playoffs. How much is that Werth (haha). Does Pence’s bullet from right field to cut down Uggla show up in WOR or any of these other silly acronyms? He’s a baller and a winner who was forced to endure lousy teams. Now he is where he will elevate his game to meet what the other guys put out there. Here’s what I think he does in the 3 hole next year… .308, 28 home runs, 100 + runs scored, 100+ rbi’s and a .380 OB. I’d pay 40 million over the next 3 years for that.
    3) Oswalt will be gone, can not afford. Kendrick might make a nice trading piece for a middle infielder / utility man – the Marlins have a couple of guys who are very good at that and rotation becomes Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Worley and Blanton. Not bad.
    4) Phillies will desperately try to sign Hamels for 4 years this off season… 80,000,000 would do it, Can we afford it is the question
    5) It will either be Madsen at 12,000,000 or Rollins at 12,000,000 for 3 years max, maybe 4 if it is for 40,000,000 total.
    6) That’s a lot of freakin’ money

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    1. (1) I wouldn’t have Ibanez on the team next year if he played for free. I’d prefer to play with a 24 man roster.

      (2) As I said, I don’t see Pence approaching those numbers, but if he does, it certainly would justify the trade, and the salary you suggest. But as for “Does Pence’s bullet from right field to cut down Uggla show up in WOR or any of these other silly acronyms?”, the answer is, yes, indeed they do. Those advanced metrics, while less than perfect, include just about everything that happens on the field. I admit that they don’t credit the “fact” that the Phillies’ veterans, despite their proven abilities to perform well in Pence’s absence, would have certainly found ways to lose but for the inspiration of Pence cheer-leading them on.

      (3) Oswalt is indeed gone. Blanton, though, probably needs surgery and may not be able to hold a spot in the rotation next year. No easy answer on that one.

      (4) That is a tough one. Is he worth that? Yes, with the usual caveat that pitchers especially are a big risk on long term contracts. Will he get that on the open market a year from now? Yes, unless he is injured or otherwise has a poor year next season. Can the Phillies afford it? Probably not, unless it is significantly back-loaded.

      (5) The problem is that both players seem really intent on testing the market. If they do, all bets are off on both players. I think someone, not the Phillies, gives Rollins 4 years. Madson may find the market less accommodating than he thinks, but that doesn’t mean he will be back.

      (6) Indeed.

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      1. Reuben Amaro has a history of giving at least one year too many on all free agent signings. I’m not sure why it is commonly assumed that holding the line on years will suddenly start with Jimmy Rollins. I wouldn’t be a bit suprised to see Jimmy Rollins signed for 4 years 40-48 million.
        That salary doesn’t kill the Phillies anymore than Utley’s 30 million over the next two seasons.

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        1. I’m one of Rollins’ biggest fans, and I wouldn’t bash such a contract. Or bash it much. But 4 years is an awful lot for a guy Rollins’ age who does have a recent history of chronic leg issues.

          Would it kill the Phillies? By itself no. But I’m on record as being very concerned about the 2013-2014, and I guess you can throw 2015 in there. If the Phillies’ strategy for the next 3 years is to retain the current aging and expensive core, and fill in with some small potatoes FA signings, then I’m not an optimist about that time period. A 4 year deal to Rollins is one move that would make a big FA signing, or trade for a star level younger guy, less likely.

          Of course going back the past 3 years, the Phillies have been very aggressive in adding to their core. Lee, Halliday, Oswalt, Pence. There seems to be an assumption that they can keep going that route. And maybe they can. But I think that they are going to have a harder time doing so going forward, for the next 2-3 years at least, for reasons of budget and (for the moment, anyway; this could change) lack of tradeable minor league talent.

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          1. I look at things a little differently. I am not at all concerned about 2014 or 2015. I’m worried about 2011, 2012 and a little about 2013. That is all that can reasonably projected at this time. Cliff Lee and Ryan Howard might be the only guys left on the team by then. By 2014, the new CBA, new Phillies TV contract, bust out minor leaguers could change everything.
            As far as hand wringing over the emptiness of the minor league system, the same was thought immediately after the Blanton trade and again, after the Halladay trade. They sign new players every year. Every year someone breaks out and becomes “untradeable”. By 2013, Biddle, Franco and Tyler Greene may look like the next Kershaw, Sandavol and Tulo… and then again maybe not.

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            1. You may be right & that may be a better way to look at it. And to be clear, I’m not saying it’s all doom & gloom, just concerning. But to push back on a couple of your points:

              (1) It’s true that a lot of money will be available (though I’d be skeptical about seeing much benefit from new revenue sources, as I expect the ownership will avoid the luxury tax even if they have a lot more money). That’s less reason for complacency than many people around here think. I’m not the FA skeptic that nowheels is, but spending for FAs is risky, there isn’t always a good fit available, and you tend to overpay. I think they will have to sign a couple big name FAs over the next few years; I hope they get it right, but we can’t assuem they will (that’s also an area where Amaro has made some mistakes).

              (2) I tend to somehat agree about he minor league system, but I am a little more worried than you are. I think with regard to position players esepcially, even assuming some break out perfromances, which there will be, not much will be available during the time frame we are talking about. Say Franco, for example, breaks out big in 2012. His ETA would still be 2015. There is a good chance we will need a new 2B, SS, C, CF, 3B and maybe even RF over the next few years. I see only 2 of those spots likely to be filled internally, by guys who could be solid regulars but probably not stars. Sure, we could re-sign guys like Rollins, Utley, etc., but that greats problems of another type.

              But certainly I can see scenarios where they keep winning. The pitching could remain very good, and it’s not as if the current crop of position players are, as a group at this stage of their careers, that much above average anyway. We’ll be able to afford a couple star level FAs (or even maybe trade breakout prospects fr ayoung star player or two), and, if we pick the right ones, and fill in the gaps with solid regulars, this team could contend for years. But, contrary to the apparent opinions of some people around here, it is far from certain and there are challenges ahead..

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            2. And to return to my earlier point, what I’m saying is that signing Rollins to a 4 year contract, while not by itself a disasterous move, is the kind of move that indicates a direction I don’t like: trying to keep the current core together for the next 4 years or so. Given normal aging patterns, that won’t work.

              Honestly I think nowheels is actually right that the best bet is to try to trade for young guys who are stars or potential stars. But needless to say that is much more easily said than done, especially with the current state of the farm system. I recognize that the latter factor could change quickly.

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        2. He does have a history of giving too many years, but usually in the service of getting “his guy”, whoever his guy happens to be. If it’s not “his guy” he often becomes pretty inflexible. Just depends on whether he really wants Jimmy there or not. (Not saying my opinion…just how RAJ seems to work.)

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      2. ‘I wouldn’t have Ibanez on the team next year if he played for free. I’d prefer to play with a 24 man roster’………….., what about Ben Francisco?

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        1. Hey, you forget, I’m Francisco’s biggest defender around here. I think it is fair to say that Francisco is better than Ibanez in every aspect of the game, except HR power, and Ibanez does not have a huge edge even there. I’d even offer Francisco arbitration.

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    2. Ibanez isn’t a major league player anymore, and I wouldn’t take him at the rookie minimum of $400K. You’re simply stealing AB’s from someone who at least has the chance of being productive and defensively competent, which he clearly does not.

      Think its tough to come to those conclusions on Pence’s #’s based on his small sample size here in Philly. Although he may be slightly better than his #’s indicated in Houston, he’s not as good as his half season in CBP.

      Although I agree Oswalt is gone, I do believe that KK will be back as the #5. But this will clearly play out over the Winter Meetings.

      With a new TV contract currently being negotiated and the Phils never in their history having more bargaining power, I think that the Phils will certainly have enough to resign Hamels – especially if they back load the contract after the first 2 years or so.

      With regards to Madson, you have to look first at his agent. When was the last time a Boras player (save J. Weaver) resigned with the team he was previously on? Next question, when was the last time a Boras client actually paid off for his new team?? Anyone??

      You said it.

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          1. The Jared Weaver contract. He’s a Boras guy who just signed a below-market deal. Without doing any research at all, I can think of one. I’m sure if I actually looked at it, I would find dozens more. An agents job is to work for his client and respect his client’s wishes. If that client is happy/comfortable with his current team, then he will stay.

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            1. I listed that as the ONE contract where a player told Boras he was staying. I don’t think you could – Boras has made a name for himself for his players jumping teams in the name of the dollar. The list of Boras players who chased the cash and burdened their new teams with albatross contracts far outweighs that one deal: ARod, Werth, Betlran, Beltre, JD Drew, Damon (who Boras totally screwed last year by telling the Yankees off then getting stuck with the Tigers), Matt Holliday, and of course everyone’s favorite – Barry Zito.

              I’d love for Madson to stay, and he does seem very comfortable with pitching in Philly, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.

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            3. The point is that it is up to Madson. If he wants to stay in Philly, he will. When it comes down to it, $27M or $33M isn’t that much of a difference. Either way, your family will be OK. Boras may want the recognition of having the highest paid guys, but he still has to make his clients happy.

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            4. Greg you and I are thinking alike. However Boras doesn’t think that way and to him and the MLBPA there is a big difference between the $27 and $33 million. I hope Madson gets offered enough to stay here but Boras’ track record points towards a departure.

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      2. The Phillies do a good job of producing the pre-game show on Sundays. It would be prudent of them to look at putting together a Philly Sport Channel ala Yankees and Red Sox. That revenue stream would be above and beyond the Comcast television contract. Maybe even partner with the Eagles who already produce their own propaganda, I mean multi-media.

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        1. Would be a great idea…but seems like a long shot of ever happening…….Comcast and WPHL revenue packages have to be so good that Montgomery, Giles et al are extremely satisfied. Anyway, believe Comcast threatened Phillies management that if they ever tried that endeavor to go on their own, they would do everything possible in blocking Chris Wheeler being brought with them…..that was a joke!

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        2. There’s a better chance of the Palestinians and the Israelis co-hosting the next Winter Olympics than there is of the Eagles doing ANYTHING with the Phillies. If CBP were burning to the ground, the Luries wouldn’t piss on it to put out the flames.

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      3. Scott Boras does exactly what his client wants him to do. If Madson wants to stay in Philly Boras will do everything he can to get him signed with the Phillies.

        The thing is that a lot of players use Boras to get as much money as they can because he is exceptionally good at doing just that. Not all Boras clients are chasing money, but the players who do want to chase money generally sign with Boras.

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        1. My point wasn’t only that his clients by in large chase money (clearly the vast majority of them do), its that the vast majority of his FA signees don’t help their new clubs. And actually in the long run, these teams are seeking relief from the enormous salaries they’ve burdened themselves with. So I simply asked can you name a single Boras client who’s signed a huge deal that actually worked out for the team who signed him??
          Manny to LA? Not so much.
          Beltran to NYM? No.
          ARod to NYY? Don’t think so.
          Werth? Do I even need to answer that one?
          Dice-K? That’s my favorite….. $100 million for one season of production.
          JD Drew to Bos? They hate him more than we do in Philly.
          Millwood to TX? Worst contract ever?? Or is Carl Crawford fighting for that honor? Never mind – it’s gotta be Barry Zito’s $126 million flushed straight down the San Fran toilet.

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    3. The Phils’ payroll this year is in the neighborhood of $175 million. Montgomery has expressed a willingness to flirt with the luxury tax, which is currently at $178 million and could be in the range of $180-185 million in 2012.

      I think the Phillies’ payroll will increase in 2012.

      The Phils had some very expensive players on their roster at the start of the year, and their commitments to these players in 2012 is about $110 million.

      On the other hand, the Phils probably also will have a number of very inexpensive players on their 2012 roster. Worley, Brown, Mayberry, Bastardo, Stutes, Schwimer, De Fratus, and Herndon may cost $5 million combined.

      Not accounted for, so far, are Pence, Madson, Hamels, Rollins and Oswalt. I contend that the contracts of all five of these players plus the remaining bench players can fit within the Phils’ planned payroll for 2012.

      Pence and Hamels are no-brainers, but they will be expensive.

      If the Phils think that Oswalt is still a very good pitcher and that his back will hold up, they could bring him back with a two-year deal on the order of that the Cards gave Carpenter. I would build in some bonuses based on innings pitched. I would not exercise the $16 million option.

      Most people say that Madson won’t be back because he is represented by Boras, and that means he’ll go for top dollar. Not always true. In fact, Madson, with Boras as his agent the last time around, did not hold out for max money.

      I don’t know what Madson’s current thinking is. Neither does anyone else commenting on these Phillies’ blogs. If he like being with the team and does not insist on a max deal, he should be back next year on a three-year deal.

      Same with Rollins. If he will accept a three-year deal in the $35-40 million range, with maybe a fourth-year option, he should be back next year, also. We shouldn’t pay much attention to Rollins’ statements to the press. I don’t know if Rollins will insist on top dollar. Neither does anyone else commenting here.

      Based on Rollins’ performance this season, I think he deserves to be brought back and paid well. He’s still one of baseball’s top SS. He’s had a season which exceeds his career average. He’s only 32. Injuries have slowed him down some, but he still played 140+ games. Players of Rollins’ caliber should be able to maintain their current level of performance through ages 33-35.

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  15. “7:39 — Somebody named Greg Golson flies out to end the top of the ninth — he looks like one of the fake Yankees who played against Billy Chapel’s team in For Love of the Game. He might be an actor. I’m not even kidding.”

    From the Bill Simmons running diary of the games last night. Props to RAJ for the Golson/Mayberry trade.

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    1. Of course you are alluding to the fact he smoothly fielded Freeman’s grounder, spun and threw to Rollins, dime on the bag, and assembled himself to the first base bag to retrieve Rollins’ return throw to complete the sequence! Is this an under-handed swipe at Ryan Howard’s defense?

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        1. Using the term defensive when referring to Francisco is offensive although I will concede the point that Ibanez is one of the few players he could do that for. Quite surprising that Charlie did not plug Mayberry in as a defensive replacement Monday after he was used as a pinch hitter in 9th. Would be a massive mistake in playoffs.

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      3. Nothing underhanded about it. It is what it is. Another example of Jr’s play. But I am glad you are in touch with your sensitive side.

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    1. I think Ibanez gave exactly what was forecast-ed given his age: .270, 20+ hr, 80+ rbi

      JMJ has showed his value as LF platoon and Ibanez is ready to go. Brown will do well next year. I think the last two years have knocked the sense of entitlement out of him resulting in a motivated player for 2012.

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  19. Looks like Marlins will be parting ways with Logan Morrison (legal issues) and Ricky Nolasco (contract-$)….any takers?

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    1. Morrison yes, though I think some people around here would object to his intangibles. 🙂

      But I think the “problem” is that the Phillies are pretty set for regular OF for the next couple of years. Obviously there is something of a Brown/Mayberry issue in LF, but I’m not sure adding another name to the mix really helps. He’d make a very nice 4th or 5th OF, but someone will give him a shot as a regular. His defense is pretty bad as well. He could be a real breakout star as a hitter, though.

      Nolasco is not a good fit – if the Phillies add a starting pitcher, it will a bargain basement 5th starter (and even assuming Blanton isn’t an option, I think they may be comfortable going with Kendrick as a 5th starter. That makes me nervous, but he will be a heck of a lot cheaper than Nolasco.)

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      1. LarryM…..funny guy you…..Morrison’s intangibles!….assume you mean sueing his own team for non-baseball issues? Have to admit, he does have some guts. Not many young players challenge their parent ball club and bring them to court.

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        1. Ron lets face it the Marlins are a management mess. So a player not putting up with their crap is not always a negative. If the price is right do it and even flip him next year if you see a trade.

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        2. I’m actually kind of the view that his troubles with the Marlins are if anything a positive indicator of his “intangibles.” Yikes, agreeing with nowheels again, twice in one day. And heck, I’ll even say that he is precisely the kind of guy that could benefit from having some positive examples among older veteran players on the team. I know, trade Pence for a third baseman and bring in Morrison to replace him (kidding).

          But certainly some of his actions have branded him as a guy with an attitude problem.

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        1. You can probably have David Wright for a used bag of balls and some pine tar at this point. Maybe a B level prospect to make the Wilpons feel whole.

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          1. Is that true, really? If so, I’d take a flier on him – though there are obvious complications -his salary and the fact that Polanco isn’t going anywhere. But as much as I deride the intangible argument, this is a guy who I think could really benefit from a change of scenery.

            If traded he can void the 2013 club option, though, so we’re not likely talking about a long term solution.

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            1. No! I’m just saying if you read the NY Post he’s not the most popular player. Mets fans and scribes would love for someone to offer them something for a player they clearly think is damaged goods.

              Not sure I can agree with you there. He hasn’t been the same since the beaning and might not ever be again. He clearly isn’t a star and he’s paid to be one. We don’t need another of those contracts on the books.

              How much value does a .254/ .345/ .427 (.427!!!!) 3rd basemen actually have?? Especially one making $15 million and playing mediocre defense? I’d say not too much.

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            2. I’m not sure that you are wrong, and there are some practical obstacles including his salary.

              But even the 2009-2010 Wright is worth his 2012 salary, even a slight bargain. I think he returns at least to that level, with a small chance of returning to his prior superstar level. Of the course the problem is that any signficant rebound will mean that keeping him past 2012 will be a very expensive proposition.

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  20. Thought this St. Louis Post Dispatch article was interesting. Everything I have previously read said Jaime Garcia in Game 1.

    http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/cardinal-beat/article_c5c21422-eadd-11e0-935e-001a4bcf6878.html

    This article says Lohse in Game 1, Edwin Jackson in Game 2, Carpenter in Game 3, and Garcia in Game4 because Garcia is much better at home in St. Louis.

    LaRussa is really outsmarting himself if he really is going to start Lohse and Jackson in first 2 games in Philly…

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  22. So have any readers been down to check out the instructional league? Any news on the new guys? I believe they started playing games this week.

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  23. Former Phillie coming back into the division?
    ‘From Mark Saxon, ESPN-LA,….speculates that the Angels and Marlins could be trade partners for Bobby Abreu, provided the Halos pay most of Abreu’s $9MM salary. Abreu could be reunited with his good friend Ozzie Guillen and serve as mentor to Florida’s young players. I’m not sure Abreu would enjoy being a backup in Miami (unless the Fish trade Logan Morrison to free up space in left field) and if the Angels are going to pay Abreu’s salary anyway, they might as well just keep him as bench depth themselves.’
    ……imagine that, Bobby Abreu being a mentor…now if that don’t beat all!

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    1. Maybe the trade is Morrison for Abreu with the Angels kicking in some cash?

      But yea, the Marlins could certainly benefit from having Abreu’s laid-back attitude permeate their dugout. He’ll be a great influence on Hanley!!! 😮

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      1. I doubt the Angels would request Morrison in a trade for Abreu. My thought would be in trading him they are making room for Trout, and Morrison just adds another player in the way of Trout.

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    2. Mark my words, the Marlins are going to be powderkeg next year. It is going to end very, very badly either next year or the year after . . . . unless of course you are a Phillies fan, in which case it will end splendidly. Some teams are going to get bargain basement prices on some viable young talent, most likely Morrison. It’s hard to tell if Morrison will ever be marginally competent in the field (right now he is about as bad as Ibanez – not a good sign for a young player), but if he keeps his head on straight, he is probably going to be one of the top 10-15 hitters in baseball.

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    3. Jimmy Rollins credits Abreu for being a terrific batting mentor and the greatest hitter he’s ever been around.
      It’s funny. A no talent like Aaron Rowand is loved in Philly because he ran into a wall face first like an idiot, but a guy like Abreu, who may be one of the best 25 Phillies ever, is is still derided 5 years after leaving, because he didnt run into walls.

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      1. No, he is derided because he exuded an “I don’t care” attitude – an inexcusable flaw for a Philadelphia sports figure.

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        1. And that’s one of the reasons why, despite the fact that some of the underlying “intangible” arguments have some (usually minor, in some cases signficant*) merit, in practice I reject and even mock such arguments. Abreu’s attitude – real or percieved – had precisely zero impact on the bottom line, wins and losses. Of course the purely coincidental fact – and I’m not being sarcastic, I am quite certain that it was purely coincidental – that the team started winning after he was traded has entreched many people in their anti-Abrue bias.

          *Not to beat a dead horse, but there are certainly “intangible” factors that go a long way to explaining why some players never make it to the major leagues, and others do, and why some who do make it become stars and others just solid regulars. Those factors are usually not evident in advance to anyone, and certainly not to the typical fan.

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          2. Larry – you assumed I was making an argument because this is a hot button issue for you. I wasn’t making an argument, I was making an observation about why he is derided.

            I won’t make the argument that Abreu didn’t help win a lot of games or that he was not a statistically valuable player – he was a statistically valuable player and he helped the Phillies win a lot of games. His WAR numbers are high, his OPS was very high and, for years, he was the most valuable player on the team; a considerable achievement considering that Scott Rolen was on many of those teams.

            However, I find a number of facts interesting about intangibles and having a positive clubhouse with all guys pulling on the same oar. The first thing that Pat Gillick did when he got to Philadelphia was to start ridding the team of players who were not positive influences in the clubhouse and this effort continued after he left with the departures of Burrell and Myers. These moves were, in my view, almost all by design. It’s easy to say now, in retrospect, that the players’ attitudes were incidental to the team’s success, but I truly do not believe that is so.

            A couple of other quick points. First, it is impossible to guage how a positive player and atmosphere affects younger and more impressionable players. I remember Bill James once did a study showing that talented young players do much better on good teams than they do on bad teams. One conclusion you can draw from that is that a postive environment enhances the growth and performance of younger players.

            Second, if I recall correctly, each year over the last 4 or 5 years, the Phillies have significantly outperformed their Baseball Prospectus total wins projections. Spread over a couple of players, the difference in enhanced performed may not be significant, but if you have that effect spread over virtually all of the players on a roster, it would not at all be surprising to see a difference of several games over the course of the year.

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            1. The “example for a young player” thing is something I’ve given some credence to, even if it is overblown, which obviously I think it is. One reason I’ve been so derisive about the Pence intangible arguments is that the “example for a young player” thing doesn’t really apply. In his case, I’ve seen people argue almost the opposite, hungry young(ish) guy will motivate jaded vets, and I think that is silly and insulting.

              And your comment about successful versus not success teams, as you realize but others may not, ” a postive environment enhances the growth and performance of younger players” is only one possible explanation and IMO not the primary one. As a side note, what’s interesting is that a majority of winning teams are allegedly composed of a bunch of guys with good attitudes. Some people take that as evidence that intangibles matter. I take it as a combination of the fact that MOST major leaguers have good attitudes, combined with some reverse causation – i.e., people ascribe those qualities to “winning” players based upon little or no evidence.

              Do I buy that Gillicks strategy (if that’s what it was) made a difference? No, I don’t. But we are in an area where the evidence, such as it is, on both sides, is pretty subjective, so I won’t likely convince anyone. But as long as people are relying upon small sample coorelations, let’s not forget that the WS team included Burrell and Myers.

              As for “each year over the last 4 or 5 years, the Phillies have significantly outperformed their Baseball Prospectus total wins projections,” I don’t know if it is true, but if so, 4 or 5 years of such data doesn’t mean a thing. I say that based upon studies I’ve read from others (success in that regard on a team level in one year is not predictive of success in that area the next year), as well as my own observations, which covers a heck of a lot of teams over a heck of a lot of years, not to mention a basic knowledge of statistics. Sometimes a coin comes up heads 4 or 5 times in a row – more often than people think. (In any given 4 year period, we should expect through chance alone roughly 2 major league teams to exceed their win predictions each of the 4 years). This is one of those areas where the human reluctance to accept the role of random chance in the world causes people to create a narrative to try to deny such randomness.

              Do I discount this kind of stuff 100%? No. I discount it about 70%. I do think that there are some teams where the culture is poisonous and has some real delaterious effects on bottom line wins and losses. I think the vast majority of teams are not in that category, and I don’t really buy that there are teams with some special ability to do better than you would expect from the more “objective” evidence (mostly statistical). And as I’ve said several times, I also do think that “make up” is a legitimate issue in terms of player development – that is, on the future success of that particular player, as opposed to other players.

              I also happen to think that for the remaining 30% (roughly, obviously) which is “real,” it’s mostly invisible to the average fan, who lacks the information to developed informed opinions about such “intangibles.” So put the 70% and 30% together, and essentially 100% of what you hear about it is BS.

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            2. One elaboration on the last point: fan opinions about “intangibles,” to the extent that they are driven by anything rational at all, tend to be driven by players exhibiting visible “hustle” on the field. IMO “hustle” has little*, or, more likely, nothing to do with the qualities that really do make a difference in player and team success.

              *”Hustle” by itself I would say means nothing. It is possible, but far from certain, that it may sometimes be coorelated with other, meaningful qualities. Or the reverse; crashing into fences to catch fly balls is IMO not a display of “baseball intelligence.”

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        2. And refusal to hit first in the order while posting the league’s highest OBP so he could amass more RBI’s. Stay classy….

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            1. Doesn’t this article make my argument for me?
              There’s more than enough evidence to support the fact that Abreu refused to hit first. You can call it slander. I can point to the fact that they’ve won 5 straight division titles in his absence.

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  24. Next season- I say forget about bringing back Lidge and Ibanez. Both , I figure , will play next season in some role. Both will be type B free agents. So, you have a pre-arranged agreement that they will not accept arbitration, if offered, and you add a couple of supplemental 1st round picks. Lidge’s buyout of 1.5 million would buy one, and the one for Ibanez may offset the 1st rounder they gave up when they signed him (Nick Franklin was picked in that spot). They can obtain similar players to replace them in short term free and clear free agents, if they deem it necessary (though I don’t) , maybe even minor league free agents.

    Oswalt, , I say, if he is healthy and pitching well and doesn’t retire, then you pick up his option at 16 million and bring him back, and start figuring from there. Since, as I have gone over before, it would only add 11 million to the current payroll, do it. And that is the way to figure payroll, assume no one returns, deduct their salaries, then start adding back players you return. None of this doctorin’, editorializing, and jiggering the numbers as you go along. You don’t give away a top pitcher.

    Blanton at 8 million, I guess you figure that in also. And logic says it is not the official outlay of 10 million you might read about. Because he likely did not play for 1 million the first year with a spread out signing bonus. , but had a 1 million base salary and received the 7 million signing bonus in the first year. And , also, the Blanton deal was over when the contract they traded for expired, and what he does now is his signed contract after the trade. No more of this jury is still out stuff, because there are 3 scuffling minor leaguers somewhere.

    J-Roll and Madson, both type A free agents. Offer arbitration, if they accept good on ’em. and if not, then you go with 4 more extra early draft picks in addition to the supplementals for Lidge and Ibanez. Maybe you get 4 supplementals, 1-3 1st rounders , 1-3 2nd rounders, in some array.. They will be replaceable through trades, promotions, free agency in some combination, should they decide to move on. I would be OK with them accepting arbitration, unlike in some previous cases, which I was right about. Got ideas for replacing these guys through trade, free agency, promotions, etc.

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    1. marf……..Big Joe B.’s contract next year…his last…has an insurance rider on it…if he has another elbow issue that keeps him DLd for an extended period of time, not sure how long—maybe 90 days or more, then it kicks in. A financial relief but you lose on the field production. Personally, if I was Ruben, I would push for him now and hope he contributes in this years playoffs, showcasing him so-to-speak, and then move him prior to ST.

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    2. I agree that the Phils must offer arb to both Rollins and Madson and both will undoubtedly reject the offer. There’s no need to overpay for their services though. My personal opinion? If Madson is looking for an 8-figure annual salary, let him walk. He’s not even close to worth that mush and the Lidge contract should be referred to what evaluating our risk in offering big money contracts to closers. Same thing for Rollins – 3yrs – 10 per, get it done. If he’s looking closer to 14-15mm, I’d rather sign a stopgap for a yr and let Freddy take over in 2013

      Regarding gentlemen’s agreements, we can add Oswalt to that list as well. I don’t see his option being picked up considering and I think that the mid-summer limbo he fell into will certainly be a contributing factor. A 4th starter becomes somewhat obsolete come playoff time anyway. Hopefully between Lidge, Raul or Oswalt was are able to yield a supplemental

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      1. I think Lidge, Raul and Oswalt, collectively, yield nothing. Zero. Raul is done. Lidge is a spare part. A pick for him? Are you kidding me? With Oswalt, I think the Phils may not be able to offer him arbitration. Either they pick up the option, the buy out the option, or they renegotiate (most likely result, IMO), but I don’t think, as a procedural matter they can both decline the option AND offer him arbitration – if anyone has meaningful insights on this issue (not guessing), I’d love to hear that.

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        1. I think they can offer him arbitration. I don’t think one has anything to do with the other. They decline his option at the end of October, he is then a F/agent. Then in November when offers of arbitration are due, they offer arbitration to their own F/agents. It has zero percent chance to happen that way, but that is allowed.
          You are right, on your other point. The Phillies won’t receive any compensation for Oswalt, Lidge or Ibanez. Their not going to offer arbitration to any of them, because they make too much money. So they will not receive comp picks.

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          1. It’s unlikely, but not 0%. It is not uncommon for a ‘Gentleman’s Agreement’ to be made between a player and club. It has happened in the past, and would obviously apply to Type B FAs only. Raul is probably our best chance of such an arrangement.

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        2. My understanding is that a team can reject a club option and still extend an offer of arbitration. I don’t think the CBA differentiates a free-agent from a free-agent who only became one because their frmr team declined an option. I could be mistating, but I’m fairly confident that the Phils can offer arb to any of the declined-option player

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          1. As to all of the above: a team can decline a players option and then offer arbitration, happens every season. I thought Oswalt was a Type A, though so there is no reason to offer as he has talked of retirement , so he is not likely to seek a long term deal, would likely accept, if playing, and could simply be renewed for 16 million, and the arbitration award would probably be around that number , regardless.

            Lidge and Ibanez are Type B Free Agents, so there is no cost to the team that signs them.
            Both will likely play in MLB next season and be signed to MLB contract. With a pre-arranged rejection of the arbitration offer, both could get supplemental picks when they sign elsewhere. The bogus numerical theories , especially in the fielding category, carry no weight.

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  25. Rollins finally made the threshold Type A free agent. That is good news for the Phillies. If Rollins goes out on the open market, that distinction lowers his value a little, since he would cost a 1st round pick. That may mean something to all the teams looking for ShortStops except maybe Boston.

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    1. So what you are saying, if a team like the Sox or Giants sign him, we get their number one pick, in the slot they would have normally picked out and not a supplemental pick between the first and second round?

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      1. That means any of the top 15 teams in Baseball would have to surrender their 1st round pick to the Phillies if they sign Rollins. Up until the last couple weeks, neither he or Reyes had achieved Type A status, due to games played.

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        2. I think that you both are mistaken. The top 15 picks in the draft cannot be surrendered. The distinction between a Type A and a Type B free agent is that losing an A grants the losing team both the signing team’s first round pick and a supplemental pick, unless the signing team’s pick is one of the first 15– then they surrender their second round pick. A type B grants the losing team a supplemental choice, but has no consequences for the signing team. These scenarios both assume that the losing team granted the free agent arbitration and the player declined. Either way, top 15 is untouchable no matter what.

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          1. When talking of top 15…..isn’t that what VOR said? Top 15…meaning the teams drafting from 16 through 30. Lower 15, I assumed were the teams with the worst records.

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            1. Yes. That’s what I said.
              Texas received the Phillies 1st round pick, because the Phillies were a top 15 team that signed Type A, Cliff Lee away from them.

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            2. Something which seems unclear above: both a Type A and Type B free agents gain the team that loses them a Supplemental pick. In addition for Type A’s , IF the signing team would ordinarily pick in the 1st 15 picks by previous season W-L record they send a 2nd round pick also, and the teams picking later with bettter W-L records send a 1st round pick also.

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    2. Rollins as a Type A really helps put the Phillies in the cat bird seat. If they can’t work out a reasonable three year deal (perhaps with a 4th year option and buyout), they just offer him arbitration and obtain a pick. In reality, the threat of arbitration may (will?) reduce his market value and will make it more likely he reaches a deal with the Phillies.

      You have to ask yourself – who would be in the market for Rollins? Probably the biggest team is the Giants – it’s an obvious fit and the Giants give stupid contracts to older players, so it makes sense in that respect. The Red Sox, a team that feels in needs a “winner” in clubhouse and a good middle infielder (Larry, please no long disseration on “winning” players – it gets boring after a while and I understand your arguments – I am not trying to defend this, only to explain what may motivate others) may be interested. He might also attract interest from the Cardinals (that, actually, wouldn’t be a bad fit). Dark horses would include the Nationals and the Royals (yup, I think they are on the cusp of spending some money).

      The Phillies would have to make due with a one or two year rental while Galvis matures. It wouldn’t be a disaster, but it would hurt the team a little in the short run. By year three, I am pretty sure that Galvis and Rollins would likely be a wash. Galvis may be soon become a 1.5-2 defensive WAR player – not a small thing for a team built on pitching. And, believe me, the Phillies are well aware of all of this.

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      1. In market foe Shortstops:

        1. Boston
        2. San Fransisco
        3. St Louis
        4. Phillies
        5. Mets

        Available Shortstops:

        1. Reyes
        2. Rollins
        3. Furcal
        4. Scutaro

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  26. One possible minor league off season topic that might be fun to discuss at some point in a thread… Which former Phillies prospect, traded since the 2007 season, might be the ‘one that got away’? Any of those prospects heading to Cooperstown?

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      1. I think Santana over D’Arnaud there even though D’Arnaud was Eastern League MVP. The Phils are real high on Valle and how he works with the pitchers and has a plus bat. I don’t think the Phils have a RH power bat in the system to replace Santana.

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        1. Santana is still such a boom or bust guy though. D’arnaud is much closer to the bigs and I’m not sold on Valle as a guy with a plus bat after the OBP he posted this year and lack of HRs.

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          1. Seb Valle is still relatively young, and will benefit with getting stronger and a better hiters park like Reading……anymore it seems the better catchers, especially defensively, come into the bigs at a later age, ie 25/26 or older. And then there are exceptions like Posey.

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      2. Gose could be pulling up on the outside but still several lengths back. His positional value is somewhat similar to D’Arnaud and it remains ???? whether he will “really” hit ? But you have to be mildly impressed by the 70 sb’s and 15 hr. While Jason Donald is far away from a front-line name, he seemed to do a creditable job as a utility man with a decent bat sort of like mini-Mart without the outfield glove. No great loss, just a possible solid supporting spear carrier to the big guys.

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      1. Still way too soon for Singleton and Villar….I thought the reference was to players traded from 2007 and “near” the show ? Doesn’t minimize their significance but there may be some out there now who one might take over either of them —- I know I would take D’Arnaud over both of them due to his positional value.

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  27. Donald hit very well this fall and like Marson hits very well against LHPs. I wonder if Donald gets a decent shot next year.

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  31. AFL- Gillies was mentioned above, so: Competition for OF playing time, just Gary Brown, Bryce Harper, and Mike Trout, maybe 3 of the top 10 prospects in the game, and the Red Sox’s Alex Hassan who is around the same age with numbers. So, if the 3 play the bulk of the OF, maybe the other DH’s, or at 1B you have either Ruf or Overbeck and one DH’s. or you have 3 top C prospects and one of them DH’s. So, maybe not alot of playing time there. At 2B, SS, and 3B on the other hand, you have one of each.(if you don’t count Overbeck or Ruf at 3B). Maybe they work Gillies in at 2B, and they shift the other IF around accordingly, because Doubt they all play every game. Remember, you heard it here first.

    NLDS- given the look of the St. Louis bullpen in game 2, be a good idea if Philly didn’t get behind anymore.

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    1. Ivee beenn saying for 3 months sign ibanez to a one year deal 5 mil. Platoon him with mayberry. Trade brown for a young 3rd baseman l.e. chase headley while brown still has some value.

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      1. Like I said above, they can make a pre-arranged deal to offer arbitration to the type B Free Agent Ibanez, so he will reject said offer, and gain a supplemental pick when another team signs him. He would easily gain an MLB contract next season and would improve the line-up of various AL teams.

        Also, I say the 5 million would be way too much, and I say they don’t have money to put into bench players.

        I can look at the trading of Domonic Brown, as he represents excess value at a positon. Hear White Sox will trade Carlos Quentin. I suspect a Brown for Quentin based deal was discussed before, and after viewing Quentin more late in the season, I would look at that good. Then you place Quentin in LF. I tried to look up if Mayberry played 3B in College, but Stanford, apparently, doesn’t mention the positions played, and his biography simply says Infielder. I think he did play 3B, though, and I think Ruben Amaro Jr. mentioned he might be able to handle 3B. So, you take a flyer on Mayberry at 3B, slide Polanco to SS to replace movin’ on J-Roll, with Quentin in LF. Though might start off a bit defensively challenged on the Left Side of Infield, they could slide in a great defensive SS, slide Polanco to 3B, and slide Mayberry back to LF, when needed or late in the game and be as sound as they could be now defensively.. That’s something they should look into. That could be quite an offense.

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        1. You sure are entertaining in your posts Marfis. Have you seen Polanco play? He can barely play 3B right now, let alone SS. And at what point late in the season did the Phillies, or anybody else, view Quentin? He had all of 2 PA’s since mid-August due to injury.

          I’m not so sure that Ibanez will get a deal elsewhere next season, and he certainly won’t get it for the amount of money that he’d win in arbitration. Not even close. Gentleman’s agreement or not, I don’t think the Phillies FO is dumb enough to risk that.

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          1. Was wondering if anyone was going to say anything about that. Polanco has as much chance of moving to SS as I do of replacing Madson as closer.

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          2. On Quentin, I was talking about prior to the July 31 trade deadline, and read that interest was expressed at that time. I seen him on TV a couple of times and may have meant past the halfway point. They can have a defensive SS also and use as needed, and they could slide Polanco to 2B when needed and to 3B. Sure he could get what is directly hit to him,knows all the pivots and stuff, and he should be better mobility wise after his annual offseason surgery. If , after the start of the season, the defense is a problem, then they can either check to see if the Mayberry experiment is intact, or shift Polanco to more of a reserve role. It is more important , in the offseason, to make a contingency plan for the moving on of Rollins, and correcting the money and too veteran of a line-up. If Polanco proves to be lacking at SS they have other options there.

            Ibanez will likely get MLB deal for one year in the American League(not that the upcoming CBA negotiations should not ideally equalize the rules between the 2 leagues and open both leagues to DH types) . The offensive production of BA, 20 HR, 85 RBI’s would be in line above players they have kept. The theory that some “numbers” state no contract would be offered, are mostly the defensive guesses readily available to the general population, that even numerous stats oriented GM’s place no stock in. And that OBP stuff is over-rated by some, as he is not applying as a lead=off hitter, and it is not about the individual player, it is about the line-up and roster.

            As to the whole “Gentleman’s Agreement” thing, who says it has to be a “Gentleman’s Agreement. Why can’t it be an open agreement. It has often been done before. For a type B Free agent it is of no penalty to player or signing team. Same goes for Lidge. And who would be enough of a weasel to openly go back on such an agreement.. And who says the team can not back out of arbitration offer and grant free agency prior to the hearing. It is done in other sports.

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            1. Marfis,

              There are some people on this site who lack baseball knowledge, and thus are more mistake prone than you are, but of people possessing some genuine baseball knowledge, you certainly have by far the worst accuracy record around here. I’ve read your part of the thread with amusement, and for the most part don’t feel the need to comment on the many silly opinions.

              But on Ibanez – defense: it’s certainly true that statistical defensive metrics are much less reliable than hitting and pitching metrics, and indeed front office people – even statistically inclined ones – discount them somewhat. But in this case Ibanez’ horrible defensive metrics are matched by the subjective evaluation of his defense. He is awful by any metric.

              On OBP, your comment: “And that OBP stuff is over-rated by some, as he is not applying as a lead=off hitter, and it is not about the individual player, it is about the line-up and roster,” is laughably, provably wrong, and the vast majority of front office people realize that, because the evidence is so overwhelming. Unlike some modern statistical metrics, where there is some or even considerable room for argument, the valuation of OBP is rock solid. It’s on par with the sun rising in the east and the law of gravity. Now, despite that, there ARE a couple of hold outs, so your prediction, while probably wrong, could be right. It takes only one – heck, Yuniesky Betancourt still has a full time job, so anything is possible. But the chance that even one of the very few dunderheads who don’t recognize the value of OBP (1) has an opening for a defensively atrocious LF, (2) can’t find someone who is better (even discounting his laughable OBP), and (3) isn’t overruled by smarter people in his organization, is quite small. Of course, as a hitter he doesn’t look quite as bad as a back up, except that there aren’t many bench jobs for slow, defensively challenged left fielders who can’t play any other position.

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            2. I might add that the position in the lineup issue IS relevant, but the relevant research if anything underlines the extent to which the former conventional wisdom (and the casual fan’s current understanding) about the value of getting on base is wrong. Even for clean up hitters, OBP on a point for point basis is a little more important than SLG%, so a .400/.400 hitter is a little better than a .300/.500 hitter even in the cleanup spot. Of course the relative value of OBP is much greater in other spots in the lineup, so you would generally not bat the .400/.400 player fourth – e.g., in the lead off slot it’s about 3 times as valuable, so in the lead off slot a guy who hits .375/.375 is as valuable as a guy who hits .325/.525!!! Of course you would never construct a lineup that way so it is sort of a moot point.

              Interestingly, and a tiny but completely inadequate defense of Ibanez, the 6th slot is another slot in the lineup where SLG% is almost as valuable as OBP. .289 is still unacceptable, especially when his SLG%, at .419, is decent but unexceptional.

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    2. On the AFL thing, a more recent look at the Scottsdale roster from when they first posted it, shows they added 3 more for 2B, SS, 3B, so maybe not.

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  33. Was anybody at Game 2 and see that ostrich with a guy riding it mascot???? Was that really a mascot of a Phils minor league team? If so, where? That might be the craziest thing I’ve ever seen since the no doubles defense…

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    1. THe Reading Phillies Crazy Hot Dog Vendor. Not a mascot, but a regular between-innings performer at every game. The guy has quite an arm, but needs to use some tape on the hot dogs he chucks into the stands.

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      1. Sweet, thanks. Tried googling it but couldn’t find anything. He is hilarious, he should definitely be in the phuture mascot top 10 prospect list.

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      1. The phils dont need a lf they,re already getting 35 hr,s and 125 rbi,s there. They need a 3rd baseman who can hit, not an experement. Sign rolliNs 3 years 10 per wit an option platoon mayberry , who is not a 3 rd baseman, and polanco. Trade brown , who has no ppsition here and is being exposed for a yong 3 rd baseman like headley

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        1. Sorry meant platoon mayberry and ibanez. But they definately need a young 3 rd baseman. Encarcion a possibility but poor dwfenesivly. Hill from arizona. Look for teams trying to save cash. Pittsburgh

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          1. No, we should platoon Brown and Mayberry. Don’t spend multi-mill bringing Ibanez back at age 40. At best, he is the new Matt Stairs and his future salary should reflect that status. I wouldn’t trust Cholly not to overplay Ibanez, were he on the team. No thanks.

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            1. Exactly, platoon the two younger players and see how they do and determine playing time based on that. If Ibanez was willing to come back at a Stairs / Gload type salary and be a 5th OF, I’d be okay with that but I’d also like to see what other veteran 5th OF types are out there as free agents this off season. Many more names will be added to that list when non-tender decisions are made many months from now.

              The only other factor that could change the above some is if Mayberry actually could play 3B. Even though Polanco is under contract, having someone like Mayberry spell him 2 or 3 games per week would be great, or fill in for him when he hits the DL as he is likely to do. A 2012 evaluation of Mayberry being an everyday 3B in 2013 would be a great opportunity. I’m having a hard time seeing him be good enough defensively to be an everyday player at that position, but I had a hard time a year ago seeing him do what he’s done this season.

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            2. Why does anyone think that Mayberry can play third base? Is there even a precedant for a player, who has played exclusively 1B and OF over 850 games in he majors and minors, with zero games at 3B or any other position, making the transition to 3B at the major league level?

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  35. I dispute the theory that the Ibanez defense is visibly evaluated as terrible, it is mediocre, maybe slightly below average. Those who have adopted an “Ibanez terrible defense” idea have had their perceptions clouded by the hit piece authored by Keith Law immediately following the signing of Ibanez, which was mostly a re-hash of statistical theorems and the opines of some message board types in Seattle. Due to this , when the season began, those inclined to follow the ideas of Law expected everything hit to Left Field to be caught. Everything hit somewhere near to LF, if only someone else was there, would have been an out ,in their perceptions.

    Compared to various LF types around, it is mediocre or slightly below average. If it was actually a problem concerning the winning and losing of games, how could such a player be (for the most part) a regular on a team with the best won-lost record for the season in MLB, with the team record for best won-lost record in franchise history, and on a team still playing while other more defensively adept players are not?

    And the requirement is only that Ibanez receive an MLB contract for the next season. The power alone should earn a spot.

    And the sight evaluations of people with a bias are suspect, regardless. What most people have read, by those they choose to believe are authorities ,colors what they see with their eyes, and when they see something their mind will either change what they see with their eyes to fit what their minds tell them they should believe, or they will afterwards assume alot of things based on pre-conceived notions. They either do not know or forget the adage of the numerous Zen and Martial Arts masters, if you want to learn something, First Empty Your Cup. It is apparent by the evaluations of some, they have not emptied their cup. Those who have emptied their cup and proceed with an empty mind, can evaluate objectively, those who let their mind change their perception of what they see according to what they believe they should see, will evaluate subjectively. And though the subjective is not always wrong, it is not clear sighted, The clear mind will objectively evaluate individual acts for what they are, and after this is accomplished only then should the mind be engaged to fit numerous observed objective facts into a whole total picture context.

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    1. This is hands down the most idiotic posting this site has ever had the disservice of reading. IMO on the following quote from Billy Madison can properly put it into context:

      “What you just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.”

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      1. Some of u are making the the mistake of believing that brown can actually play. He,s a butcher in the field, he,s a bad baserunner and he,s a average hitter. Some g.m.,s will continue to believe brown will be a star and those are the guys to deal with for a 3rd baseman. And mayberry at 3rd. He,s 6’6″ with long strides. Do u actually watch bb. Mayberry is a of,er and a good one, dont make me laugh with the 3rd talk. We need a 3rd baseman,polanco who along with ruiz, better start hitting today, is not next years answer, niether is anyone in our system. Move brown.

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    3. Argh, long comment eaten by a browser crash. Short version: name one reputable baseball person who thinks he is other than horrible defensively. He was bad when he was signed by the Phillies and has (predictibly, given his age) gotten worse. Name 3 worse fieldings left fielders. Name one.

      The argument about the Phillies’ team defense doesn’t even make sense on it’s own terms.

      As for the power alone being enough reason to give him a job, of course not. That argument might make some sense if he hit 40 HR a year, but he hits 20. There are probably 100 minor leaguers who could hit 20 HR given a full season in the majors, many with better ancillary skills than Ibanez. They don’t have jobs for the same reason that Ibanez shouldn’t have a job – mid range HR power, not supported by any other plus skills, does not a major league regular make.

      As previously stated, as bad as his hitting is overall for a corner OF, it probably is good enough for a bench role. He shouldn’t – and probably won’t – get a such a role because, given the reality of the 5 man bench, a bench player needs to either have positional flexibility, good ancillary skills, or well above average hitting skills. Ibanez has none of that.

      Anything is possible. Major league front offices make mistakes. It’s hard to see anyone making that sort of mistake next year.

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      1. Jason Bay, Carlos Lee, Al Soriano, Josh Willingham, Dave Roberts and Pat Burrell(if still active)

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        1. I’d argue that:
          Jason Bay isn’t worse.
          Carlos Lee is so fat he’s now a 1st basemen/ DH.
          Al Soriano has played himself into a DH/ 4th OF role.
          Dave Roberts isn’t even active.
          Willingham is easily better than Ibanez.
          Pat Burrell might be the lone LF who is indeed worse than Raul. Might be….

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          1. Burrell was as bad or worse, but he is several years younger and his defense hasn’t yet gone from very bad to worse, as had Ibanez’ defense.

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          2. Argue all you want….Bay, Lee , Soriano, Willingham and Burrell’s distance covered in 3.75 seconds is less then Raul’s. Look it up..

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            1. Great, you’ve found one defensive metric to support your predetermined hypothesis. Congrats on being so arbitrary…

              Your argument that Ibanez isn’t a poor defensive player is not defensible (little play on words there….).

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  37. The only things good that can be said about Ibanez’s defense is that he catches the balls he gets too (which is not many at this point) and that he has an accurate arm on throws (but his arm strength is so weak at this point that it hardly ever gets to it’s destination in time for the accuracy to matter). I have been the biggest detractor of Brown’s defense, but to answer the question raised above – the difference is that Brown is young and inexperienced and has the ability and skills to improve, whereas with Raul it’s just an age thing and it’s not coming back.

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    1. Re. Brown . If your instincts and fundimentals at 24 and his level are as poor as they are improvement would be a minor miracle.

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  38. I know one AB, even a huge, huge one, does not a season make, but ….

    BEN!!!!!

    There, I feel vindicated. 🙂 Biggest hit of his career.

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      1. If he spends time as the 5th OF/ RH PH, I don’t see how he isn’t worth the same as Ross Gload.

        I feel like that helps the Cliff Lee trade of ’09 back in our favor (if it wasn’t lopsided enough)

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    3. Larry, as you’ve said in the past – Ben’s BABIP had to self correct at some point in time. It was his SLG% and not OBP that had truly dropped this year, and he certainly made up for it last night.

      I hope this is a confidence builder for Ben for the remainder of the playoffs. His RH bat off the bench could be enormous (as if it hasn’t already been!!).

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    4. I will concede as one of Ben’s biggest detractors that he deserved that big smile that may last forever! Like Lidge and Stairs before him he can do little to leave my good graces moving forward.

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  39. Advice to Roy tonight….pitch high heat out-of-the-strike zone balls every AB to Albert. Let him walk….but he will not—-he is paid to be to hit in the playoffs.

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  40. Before 4 October 2011—-Cardinals are at their best on Tuesdays, 16-10; Phillies are 13-13. Cardinals are at their worst on Wednesdays, 10-15; Phillies, their best, 21-5. Murphy’s Law dictates, we had back to CBP for game 5.

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  42. we’re lucky not have been already eliminated, frankly, given how well the cards are hitting the ball. the phillies are getting nothing from the cleanup spot on down.

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    1. Might have been a way different outcome had the umps not blown both the strike call on Howard and the out call on Pence where he was clearly safe in the first. Jackson may not have made it out of the first. I guess all Larussa’s begging paid off.

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  44. at least we’ll have halladay on the mound. but i doubt carpenter will pitch as poorly as he did in game 2, so the phillies will have their hands full.

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  45. It boils down to Cholly’s fixation on long ball. If they could of added a few runs thing would be better. Has anyone noticed even ALBERT is only trying to get on base foresaking the Hr for team baseball.

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  46. I think Albert is trying to hit the ball as hard and far as he can. Difference is that he’s a good hitter who doesn’t get pull happy like some of the Phillies have been in this series. (paging misters Howard, Ibanez, Victorino, Ruiz, Utley)

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  47. Howard had me fooled again after that 1st game I thought he would lock in and stay disciplined not so I guess. I think he was hitting better with Pence behind him and I think Victorino hit better in the 2 hole.

    Chase looks like he’s aging in dog years now. He’s not hitting anything hard. I hate to say it but I’m not optimistic. The only team I think we could beat in the WS would be the Tigers and that’s if we manage to get there.

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    1. I’m as ready to criticize the Phillies players as the next guy, but not sure Utley is a good place to direct our ire right now. He and Rollins are 15-for-29 with seven extra-base hits and four walks in the series. The rest of the regulars (including Mayberry) are 16-for-92 with only 2 extra base hits.

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    2. I’m really of two minds on this. On the one hand, I think that you and some others are overreacting a bit to a small sample size.

      On the other hand, I think it’s under-appreciated the extent to which the aging curve has already negatively impacted the Phillies’ hitting, and, while I am a bit more optimistic than you are about this post season, it is one reason why expectation were a little too high this year, and why there is some cause for concern going forward.

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      1. Personally, I’m not as annoyed with the offense as I am with Cliff Lee right now. This team is built to score a few runs and have the pitching hold up. If Cliff can hold a 4-0 lead in Game 2, Game 4 doesn’t even happen.

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        1. I would expect some major changes in our position regulars if we don’t win on Friday. The only regulars who are pulling their weight are Rollins, Utley, Pence and Ruiz as the others have reverted to their bad habits in this series. That being said Go Phils and Doc Hallady.

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        2. and he was 94-1 in games when he had a four-run lead before sunday, so he picked the absolute worst time to come up short.

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    3. i agree. the yankees and rangers are similar to st. louis, except better. although i do think the cards are capable of winning the WS if they get there.

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    4. Everyone here has been a little spoiled by the team’s success. It has been amazing that, in this now 5 year playoff run the team has not gone to a deciding game in any of those series.

      Before we throw everyone under the bus, let’s take a deep breath and allow this all to play out. They are at home with the best pitcher of our generation taking the mound – it’s stressful, but these are the type of days that produce games you tell the grandkids about. Enjoy the day – it is actually pretty special.

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      1. Well said!!! I prayed to God for a win in 64,76,77,78 and my prayers were answered in 1980. Everything is gravy now.

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  48. After we are eliminated tomorrow night….we can take solace in that the our top three big pitchers had exceptional seasons, Ryan Madson proved he is a closer of note and John Mayberry finally blossomed.

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    2. There’s no solace in losing to a mediocre team with mediocre pitching who needed to win 66% of their September games just to make the post season. This would be a monumental failure and require thorough self evaluation.

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  49. Today is one of the top ten most important days in Phillies history , Should they lose the future path is very unclear. C’mon Doc . The baseball version of the “OK Corral”

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  50. It was brought up, outside this website, that Ryan Howard is hitting under the ‘Mendoza line’ with two strikes for his career, but isn’t that the case with the majority of MLB players?

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    1. Probably but one can expect their Super Star 4 Hole hitter to do a better job of swinging at strikes and staying in hitters counts. Could be just perception but every time I see Howard bat it seems the best pitch he gets is the first pitch and he misses it, fouls it whatever.

      After that the scouting report must be throw him anything but a strike and he gets himself out. He is not tyhe only one mind you. If i were a Yankee fan I would be killing AROD right now.

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  51. Top Ten War-Teams-2011:
    Team -BattingWAR Pitching WAR Total WAR
    Texas 39.1 21.8 60.9
    NYY 36.0 23.9 59.9
    Bost 39.3 20.3 59.6
    Phila 23.9 27.6 51.5
    Milw 33.4 18.1 51.5
    Det 28.9 19.9 48.8
    St.L. 34.3 14.3 48.6
    Ariz 31.5 15.9 47.4
    Tampa 31.2 14.4 45.6
    LAA 23.8 18.6 42.4

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  52. One has to think if we lose that spending less on oswalt, madson, and rollins next year and more on a new, high $$$ offensive force is necessary

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  53. Yes, I think that if the Phils lose to the Cardinals in the NLDS, major changes have a strong chance of occuring to the lineup. The core seems to have lost its mojo and they have not continued to prove that they are winning players (assuming a game 5 loss). They are not getting any better because they are veteran players. Given the amount of money the front office invested in this team, an elimination in the first round of the playoffs is unacceptable. Just as Francona left Boston, players who have become very entrenched here could leave. I mean players like Howard or Utley. In 2010, when the Phils offense was so pathetic and frustrating, Amaro thought about blowing up the team. He is very competitive and aggressive and I could see him trading Howard for a nice package of younger players who could provide a makeover to the lineup. For example, Jason Heyward’s name has been mentioned in trade rumors. You could also seriously assess Dom Brown as someone who could help reformulate the nucleus of the offense. Gross should not be fired because they already fired Milt Thompson and so the responsibility has shifted to the players. I also don’t think anyone in management like Manuel or Amaro should go. Manuel is a competetive person and a good motivator who has an infectious love of the game. Amaro is a shrewd and ambitious executive who had brought big, big names to Philly. Philly could be saying goodbye to a player like Vic. Didn’t the Flyers do something similar (I’m not a Flyers fan) when they got eliminated in the playoffs? Trading Richards?

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    2. I’m certainly concerned about the aging core, though I wouldn’t base any decisions on a small post season sample size. But I think there’s a few problems with your suggestion. On the one hand, other teams can see the same thing we see in terms of age related decline and arguably overpriced contracts. On the other hand, those same players, while declining, won’t be easily replaced. Howard isn’t going to get you a nice package of younger players. With his contract, he is essentially untradeable. Utley is probably a slightly more valuable commodity, but he also would leave a much bigger hole in the lineup than would Howard. Sure you could trade some other regulars, but probably not get much in return. You would be blowing up the team, giving up on the next couple of years. Given the still strong pitching core, which should keep the team contending for a couple more years, that’s a mistake (and not the kind of mistake that a team with the Phillies’ payroll would be inclined to make).

      Really the only blockbuster move I see as even possible (still not likely) would be to let Madson, Oswalt, and Rollins leave, and use the resulting salary savings to sign Reyes. Not sure what I think of that.

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      1. Larry I hear ya. The idea of Reyes is very tempting but with his injury history and attitude issues I can’t see it. I don’t know that a change in approach means moving an existing piece but as you mention, using Vance and KK as your last two starters rather than Oswalt, and trying Bastardo at closer and letting Madson walk, so that you can add a big time piece in LF or at 3B.

        Considering RAJ pulled off in essence a sign and trade with Lee and Doc, could the samme scenario occur with Pujols and Howard this off season? Unlikely but who knows.

        Let’s just win please

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  54. I hope this comes back to bite me tonight in a big way but Valdez offers much more offensively since may than Polanco who is almost an automatic out and can’t run a lick. Valdez has produced timely hits and goes first to third very well. If we squeak by in this one, send Polanco for whatever surgery he needs as he is an absolute hole in the lineup.

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  55. Wow, i have tried to remain positive about howard but he is horrible. Utley has no power left, polly is done even with surgery, victorino is not a 5 hole hitter, and rollins is in no way worth 5.years. On top of all those problems, how much longer can halladay, lee, and hamels throw 240 regular season innings before they break? I hate having to be pessimistic, but i think the championship window is closed. There is no way to fix all these offensive flaws with howards albatross. Also, any help from the pharm is years away. What a sad day this is.

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  56. Well season over.

    Here’s what I would do this winter.

    Hope Howard, Polanco, Utley, Conteras and Blanton heal.

    Let Rollins and Oswalt go along with obvious of Ibanez and Gload.

    Try to sign Madson but anything over 4 years 40 million $ buh bye.

    Use Brown and Mayberry in left.

    Sign Reyes.5 years 100 million$.

    Trade for Emilio Bonafacio as a utilityman, they really need a jack of all trades guy who can hit a bit. Martinez with a bat.

    Sign a veteran lefty (think Scott Eyre 4 years ago) or righty if you think Savery can do the job

    Pray that St Louis can not sign el Hombre and that you could entice them into taking Howard… won’t happen but we can dream… that’s what happens when the Marketing Department gets in the way of a baseball decision.

    Proposed lineup
    Reyes
    Utley
    Vic
    Pence
    Howard
    Mayberry / Brown
    Ruiz
    Polanco
    Picher – Doc, Lee, Hamels, Worley, Blanton
    Relief – Madsen, Bastardo, Conteras, Stutes, Defratus, lefty or righty vet, someone not named Herndon (maybe savery)
    Subs – Bonifacio, Martinez / Valdez,, lefty hitter (Greg Dobbs?), 2nd catcher,, 25th man who is really just happy to be there

    The Phillies do not have the power anymore to just demolish people (unless Utley recovers). They need to be able to play good D and manufacture some runs, run the bases and keep pitching.

    This would keep the window open for 2 to 3 more years. C’mon Mids (John Middleton) do it!

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  57. Here’s what I would do….

    Fire Ruben

    Fire Charlie

    Fire Dubee

    Fire Gross

    Fire Perlozzo

    Fire Samuel

    Fire Mackanin

    Fire Billmeyer

    Let Madson, Rollins, Lidge, Oswalt, Schneider, and Ibanez walk.

    Trade Polanco, Ruiz, Utley, Howard, Valdez, Victorino, Pence, Mayberry, Francisco, Halladay, Lee, Blanton, Hamels, Worley, Kendrick, Bastardo, Stutes, Schwimer, Contreras, DeFratus, and Savery.

    If I forgot anyone, they can go f*’k themselves too…

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  58. Torn achilles, guess we can’t trade the overpriced piece of garbage now. Oh wait, we couldn’t do that the day we gave him a 6 year $150M contract extension when he was 2 yrs away from free agency. When would he have become a free agent? Oh yeah, this off season right after tearing his achilles. Wonder if he would have gotten 150M on the open market with that injury? Guessing no.

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    1. Why didn’t Brown play at all at the end of September? Even guys like Moss, Bowker and Kratz played. I think Brown pinch-ran once.

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        1. I do – his confidence was shot. They want him to get some distance from the game and come back fresh. They didn’t want to bury him.

          It was not a bad idea at the time.

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  60. It could of been even worse. Suppose Ryan’s ball was a hit and he couldn’t make it to first.
    To me the season came down to Utley’s long fly. The old Utley would of put that in the seats or pulled a bit.

    How they let Polanco play hurt all year is so aggravating.
    Cholly won’t change so they are very subject to advanced planning.
    Congrat to Doc no one can fault his final effort .
    AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHH

    Hewitt had better cancel his plans to hit with Ryan for several reasons.

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  61. Signing Madsen is key but losing my erase any hometown thoughts. Howard probably stands in the way of any real rebuilding of the position players. The only POSSIBLE trading partner is the Yanks . As a DH with that short porch he would be of more value there.
    Keep the pitching staff as much as possible. Let Cholly retire(his era is over). Please please get a third baseman with real power.

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    1. MRI today on Howard…could be twisted ankle as Charlie says. Third base is a big issue…..Polly cannot stay healthy and lacks the power like you said. One time past prospects are available, Kouzmenoff, LaRoche…but I go for Ian Stewart of the Rockies…has some pop and fairly young and has played over 900 professional games at 3rd. He is a left hand bat, but Pence and Mayberry give you RH equalization strength in the lineup..

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  62. Ryan Howard—WAR 5+, once-2006. Since, approx 2.5….contract will be albatross @ 5/125M to future player acquisitions and retainment. Poor decision on Amaro’s part.

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  63. If Yanks decline Nick Swisher’s option, which is a possibility, would it be a good idea to go after him. Does have decent OBPs, plays a decent OF and switch-hits?

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    1. I get the impression he loves NY. So if they do decline I wouldn’t be surprised they work out a deal for less money to bring him back.

      In the event that he does hit the open market. I say absolutely take a flier on him. He can fill in at 1B while Howard is out and can play OF afterwards.

      Hopefully during the time he plays 1B Dom Brown emerges as an everyday starter leaving Swisher, Victorino, or Pence as trade bait.

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  64. I stayed up awhile last night trying to decide how I would fix things if I was Rube. I think the most glaring need going forward is third base. So what you want about Howard (and yes, it was dismal) but the bottom of our lineup was awful. Polanco is done but we don’t really have anyone we can internally replace him with. A full season of Martinez, Valdez, or RIvero at 3b is not an upgrade. so, my fixes

    1) The Bullpen
    – Let Madson walk if he wants too much money. I’m not anti-Madson, but I think he’ll want more than what I’d be willing to pay.
    – Make Bastardo the closer.
    – Resign Lidge for less money. For a setup guy, closer insurance.
    – I think Lidge would work early in the season as insurance in case Bastardo struggles. Bastardo, Savery, Herndon, Lidge, De Fratus, Schwimmer, Stutes. If Bastardo struggles and Lidge can’t cut it, hopefully by this time you’re further along in the season and what the heck, let De Fratus or Aumont take a crack at it. Closers can be a little overrated and the regular season shouldn’t matter as much if the pen struggles, I just want them righting themselves by the playoffs.

    2) trade Victorino
    – Victorino is a free agent after next season (along with Hamels) and honestly, I just think that Mayberry is a suitable replacement. Trade Victorino while the value is still there. Mayberry produced roughly the same numbers in many less plate appearances. Vic’s biggest weapon is supposedly his speed, but he only stole 19 bases. 19!!! I honestly think Mayberry could steal that money, but would have more production HR and RBI wise.
    – trade Vic to the Nats or Mets.
    Not sure if either team would go for it, but its worth a shot. The Nats have Espinosa @ short, Lombardazzio at 2b, Morse at 1st. What if they could be talked into trading injury prone Zimmerman (who will get expensive after 2013, and with all that money tied up in Werthless) for that CF they have desired. What’s more, they will have Rendon ready soon who could stay at 3rd. Likewise, Wright is tied up through next season will a team option for after that. Could we do a Victorino, Galvis, Schwimmer, Polanco for Wright? Probably not, but its worth talking about. Could making that trade free up money for them to resign Reyes?

    – If you keep Polanco, you have to keep Rollins. There would just be too much of a hole is Rollins leaves and Polanco is not upgraded. If you get a Aramis Ramirez (pretty much the only 3b out there) then I say let Rollins go.

    Thoughts? please lay off the non-helpful comments i.e. trade Howard. not gonna happen

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        1. That was 8 years ago. Zimmerman is still under contract for the next 2 years so they aren’t considering how expensive he will be 3 years from now yet. Not sure its fair to call him injury prone either… he’s only missed significant time in 2 of his 6 MLB seasons.

          Mayberry only played in a reserve/platoon role this year. Its the first time in his career (Majors or Minors) he has ever shown these type of numbers. Wayyy too soon to be annointing him as equal to or better than Victorino. He wouldn’t be the first guy to be a flash in the pan.

          Yes Vic only had 19 SBs, he also had 16 triples so its not like his speed was going to waste. Also consider that his XBHs were up from last year even though he had roughly 75 fewer plate appearances. So he had less opportunities to steal.

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    1. I really like Manuel, but he is no longer the correct manager for the team. He was the correct manager in 2007 but not now. Also Polanco is untradeable, fortunately just one year left. The Phillies may still contend if they keep the 3 big starters and start rebuilding the position players. Victorino and Pence are the only tradeable position players.

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  68. See the trend, Phillies win WS in 2008, lose WS in 2009, lose NLCS in 2010, lose in NLDS 2011…..no playoffs in 2012?

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