97 thoughts on “Around the System–Outfield”

1. Charlie Manuel wants Domonic Brown back up after rosters expand. He said somewhere on Philly.com that Domonic would be brought up.

   LikeLike

   1. I mean after the playoffs, obviously rosters have expanded.

      LikeLike

   2. DOm Brown is out of the Lehigh Valley lineup tonight.

      LikeLike

      1. What does that have to do with Charlie wanting him to come up? Charlie wants him to get experience and work with him on his swing more and has full confidence in Domonic.

         I can’t find the article but he said “it’s my understanding that he’s going to come up” or something like that.

         LikeLike

   3. Does anyone knnow who is replacing Chuck La mar?

      LikeLike

   4. The Phils have Chris Lubanski in Reading. When I looked up his stats in 2010 he was a AAA All Star at 25 with a .899 OPS at Las Vegas in the PCL and he is an LH bat. I know his numbers werent great at Reading but he was only there for a few weeks. How can they not ask him to come back considering they will likely need help in the next few years in the outfield? I saw Dom Brown play at LHV the past few weeks and he just can’t (or doesn’t want to) play.

      LikeLike

2. Thanks Gregg, great stuff. i don’t think Pointer will start at LWood because they already have Hudson, Altherr, Dugan, possibly Lavin and I expect Greene Jr. could start here depending on what he shows in ST. I’m not sure why everyone assumes Mitchell will leave the organization. I think he might want to stay and the Phils would want to keep him. I could see him starting in RF in AAA next year if Moss doesn’t come back (why would he want to). The Phils handling of Mayberry could be seen as very encouraging to a gut like Mitchell who has a chance to be a major league 4th or 5th outfielder. A guy that can hit a homer occassionally, steal a base, and adequately play all 3 outfield spots is valuable on the bench.
   Overall, this group really needs James to step up (Gillies?).

   LikeLike

3. Pointer to LKW theory- didn’t see that v. LHP’s thing, might be a pinch-hitter reserve candidate, if no improvement there. So, in LKW, see Altherr, Hudson, and Dugan, as projected above, and then it comes down to either Pointer or a conventional move with Lavin as back-up. The lack of anything at 2 highest levels, might help in the moving up of Lavin thing, so maybe the Pointer to LKW thing looks better than originally thought. Lavin, I would maybe move him to Reading even, and maybe he jumps up, but if he crashes and burns, as the saying goes, so.

   Now pushing up to Clearwater, you start with the suspended Collier at some point, maybe, and then you got: Hewitt, Alvarez, and Bill Rice and maybe then Lavin works in there, and don’t see any big priorities at 1B either, so maybe those 4 are solid.

   Now, if Reading has any priorities to come up from Clearwater it would be Jiwan James and L. Castro. Maybe they can shift the likely utility player Jeremy Barnes to LF, consider that. And they bring back D’Arby Myers. They could try Lavin here, . Down at Lakewood or Clearwater they could slide Drew Hillman or others to a reserve OF role and fill accordingly at lower levels..

   LVIP- They can keep Susdorf and move him up, and maybe they resign Mitchell , if not then you got Minor League veterans , returnees , maybe D. Brown as a big prospect to start off, if not traded, players bounced from MLB for some reason, and you add selected minor league veterans for the most part for another re-hash of that method for another season.

   LikeLike

   1. It will all sort itself out in the Spring, but I think it is definitely possible to see Altherr, Hudson, Dugan, and Pointer at LKW, like you said. Whoever is not in the field can DH. Also, Dugan can fill in at 1B when he’s not in the OF.

      LikeLike

4. Thanks for this, Gregg.

   I did not realize how poorly our OFs in A+ and below had performed this year. I had the impression that this was a source of organizational depth. As Gregg points out, a number of guys showed glimmers, but by and large the triple slash lines for these guys are not exciting at all.

   When combining age relative to level and triple slash lines, the only one who looks really exciting to me is Brian Pointer. I know a lot of these guys have tools and upside, but in terms of delivering the goods, it seems that only Pointer did that this year.

   LikeLike

5. Yeah the cupboard looks pretty bare… Trading Gose, Taylor & Spencer (although none have really proven anything yet), little progress of Collier or Hewitt and that combined with not signing Garvey or Jake Stewart at least in the short term makes the prospect cupboard look even more empty. Hopefully, Grenne, Quinn and a healthy Eldemire will turn that around next year. Also maybe throw Knight in that mix, but I guess most if not all will start in the short season leagues so they are a long way from CBP…Do we have any potential OF from VSL or DSL that might be able to step in and give us reason for hope?

   LikeLike

   1. Well, they did just sign the 16-year old kid. Tosca, right? He should give some hope.

      Also, thanks Gregg for all you do for the site. These reviews are fantastic.

      LikeLike

      1. The kid wil probably start in the VSL in 2012. Someone to keep an eye on.

         LikeLike

      2. Did they end up signing him? What was the bonus?

         Yes, Gregg, many, many thanks for all that you do for this site!

         LikeLike

         1. yes they signed him—–I think it was $750K.

            LikeLike

            1. great, thanks.

               LikeLike

   2. Michael Taylor got called up to Oakland on Sept 1.

      In 6 games he has 4 hits, 3 walks, and 5 strikeouts. A line of: .235/.350/.235 for anyone who’s interested.

      LikeLike

6. For some reason the A’s have messed up more than one good prospect.

   LikeLike

7. Appears former LHV player John Mayberry will start with Phillies next year. Is it reasonable to assume, based on his limited sampling this year, that he can produce at this level with 550plus PAs…..20/25HRs, 70/75 RBIs, 15 SBs, .255/.340/.450….????? Would that be quality numbers from him for that team?

   LikeLike

   1. I don’t think he can. I think they need to go out and get a left handed hitter to platoon with him. If it’s not Domonic, I’d like to see them sign/add someone.

      In other news LHV 12 outs away from elimination?

      LikeLike

      1. Hopefully Sandberg is on the next flight to Philly. Would love to see Galvis, Moss and the closers go with him, but I would be somewhat surprised to see any of them join their manager in the big leagues.

         LikeLike

         1. Looks like I was a minute early on that comment:

            “Phillies recalled Brown and DeFratus. Selected contracts of catcher Erik Kratz, left-hander Joe Savery and outfielder Brandon Moss.”

            A bit surprised to see Savery instead of Aumont, and I really think Brown should probably take the rest of the season off, but congrats to all the Iron Pigs on their way up. Certainly well deserved.

            LikeLike

            1. I think they want to get Brown some experience in left field and to have a better option of a pinch runner than Martinez/Valdez/Orr. I’m not surprised to see Savory though, they need a 2nd lefty and they probably want to see if he can do the job.

               Charlie loves this kid despite his struggles/mental lapses. He really wants to work with him on his swing.

               LikeLike

               1. It’s not like Brown can do worse than the left hand pinch hitters we have now.

                  LikeLike

8. Brown, DeFratus, Savery, Kratz and Moss called up

   LikeLike

9. Strange no Galvis. Am I missing something?

   LikeLike

   1. I am thinking its because rollins will need as many ABs as he can get because of having been hurt and not playing. So no playing time for Galvis? No need to come up?

      LikeLike

10. With all the OFers the Phils drafted in the last several drafts, it is disappointing to me that practically none have stepped up to show that they are real MLB prospects…maybe except for Hudson. Maybe some will step forward in ’12, but so far no go.

    LikeLike

    1. Yeah, I actually came away from this extremely depressed. Hopefully, in terms of the big league team, we can resign Victorino, have Brown in one spot, and get a free agent in the other for the forseeable future (after Pence, of course.)

       Someone should step up, if not for the team’s needs, but for the trade needs.

       LikeLike

11. Bourne would of been nice.

    LikeLike

12. I think calling Brown up and Cholly being so vocal about it was one of he best moves he has made. For whatever reason Brown didn’t take the demotion well although it made sense. At least Cholly can make the guy feel like he belongs. Could help

    LikeLike

    1. Hope you are correct….after they clinch, Brown should see some ABs and time in left….many of us will have our fingers crossed hoping for the best. The kid doesn’t need anymore embarrassments.

       LikeLike

13. Preliminary Top Prospects. I’m going to divide this into three posts so responses can be made separately. Prospects generally ranked by where they played most of 2011, not necessarily their ideal or future position.

    LEFT FIELD
    1. Aaron Altherr
    2. Larry Greene
    3. Miguel Alvarez
    4. D’Arby Myers
    5. Mike Spidale

    Very weak outside the top two. I’d expect that, most good prospects are playing elsewhere and moved to LF later on. Altherr was pushed to a corner by Kyrell Hudson. I’m probably higher on him than most here.

    LikeLike

    1. …will you be disappointed if the Phillies start L.Greene at 1st in the GCL or WMPT?

       LikeLike

       1. No, that’s where L Greene belongs…in time to replace Howard at 1st base. His build and power are perfect for that role. Give him 4 plus years to come to the bigs. Spending some time in LF could enhance his abilities…and prepare him to replace Ryan at Howard’s End.

          LikeLike

          1. It’s too far away to prep a player to take the place of a specific player. Way too early for that. In truth, I don’t know if Greene profiles best at first base, LF or RF. But it’s better to slot him in here rather than place a complete unknown at #5. I really would’ve had to scrape the barrel otherwise.

             LikeLike

          2. Thank you Art D. for the literary reference.

             LikeLike

          3. Agree—I can only assume Greene’s ETA is approx 2015/2016, Howard’s contract runs thru 2016 @ $25M and an option buyout of $10M in 2017. And at age 38/39 he could very well be near the end of his playing career.

             LikeLike

          4. Unless Larry Greene goes to instructional league and shows he is a dancing bear with two left feet, there is no chance, the Phillies start that guy at 1B next year. It would be plain silly to take a HS CF and immediately switch him to 1B. That is just short sighted. Nobody devalues their own talent, by immediately lowering their defensive value.
             They will start Larry Greene in RF if he can throw, or LF if he can’t… and I guarantee the Phillies aren’t silly enough to base the development of their 2011 draftees based on Ryan Howard or anybody else currently on the team.

             LikeLike

    2. I like Altherr also. He will take his time through the system because he needs the development. I think Susdorf is first. He can hit productively and, although he has not shown the power necessary for left field, he did come up this year (although it was in Reading). This is the same knock the Phillies put on Spidale and Thompson. They don’t see them as major league outfielders. Come to think of it, I guess Altherr is our only left field prospect. I think Greene is destined for first base. I don’t think we will see Myers in the system next year. Draft some left fielders.

       LikeLike

       1. Susdorf is 25 years old in Reading, and is not good in the outfield. He’s fringe because of his bat, but the bat really isn’t good enough to carry him.

          As far as left fielders, you draft outfielders and convert them later. Like I said up top, don’t sweat the lack of good prospects here. Center fielders and right fielders can find a home if needed.

          FWIW, if Dom Brown were prospect eligible he’d be #1.

          LikeLike

14. CENTER FIELD
    1. Jiwan James
    2. Kyrell Hudson
    3. Tyson Gillies
    4. Zack Collier
    5. Gauntlett Eldemire

    LikeLike

    1. Oh My! If we throw injury-prone to one side, I like Gillies in first place. I hope he and James both come through this year. I suppose they will start Gillies in center at Clearwater and James at Reading so I can’t argue your choice. I just can’t forget ST in 2010. He WAS on fire and showed more than James has yet. That is my reasoning. Kyrell Hudson/Zack Collier — same guy. Where in the world is Gauntlett Eldemire? Can’t list him because I can’t see him. Again I will not contradict your choices, but to offer other possibilities:
       What about Brian Pointer? He showed a lot in GCL and he is visible.
       What about Derrick Mitchell? Off his performance at Reading, if he lifts his average at LHV, he can be considered a pretty good prospect. At this point he is more of a prospect than Eldemire.
       1. Gillies
       2. James
       3. Hudson/Collier
       4. Pointer
       5. Mitchell

       LikeLike

       1. Pointer played RF this year, so I put him on that list. Pointer might deserve to rank above all but James overall.

          Derrick Mitchell is #6. There are going to be forum wars on the subject of him this offseason. What I see is a player with a .326 OBP in Reading as a 24 year old. I don’t think he has the contact skills and plate discipline necessary to succeed at higher levels.

          LikeLike

          1. I think that Mitchell is a better player than D Brown. Mitchell can hit and he can play in the outfield. Mitchell has been overlooked. Why should he be #6 and D Brown #1 ? Also
             I think Gillies is overrater. He has not played in the most part of 2 seasons and when he did he played torrible. He should not be a prospect until he proves himself, atleast Mitchell has proven himself and he still falls behind Gillies who has done nothing in two seasons. Makes no sinse.

             LikeLike

             1. lol

                LikeLike

             2. This almost has to be a parody, taking off on VOR’s comment directed at me vis-a-vis the Brown haters. But really words fail me. I know that people can have some pretty strange beliefs but wow, just wow.

                I mean, the Mitchell thing was siilly enough when he was actually hitting well, but you would think his year ending slump and consequent quite mediocre overall numbers would have broken that particular bubble.

                LikeLike

                1. See that. There is a segment that truly believes the Derrick Mitchell’s of the world are better than Brown. Hilarious.

                   LikeLike

                2. Based on the grammar and spelling, I’m thinking their may need to be an age check on this one.

                   LikeLike

             3. sarcasm.

                Must be.

                LikeLike

                1. Mitchell played with Brown for 2 years and put up better numbers than Brown in some categories . Mitchell is a better Defensive player than brown, he can also play infield. What more needs to be said Brown is overrated .

                   LikeLike

                2. Outs is a category! Only a complete idiot would say that Mitchell was in Brown’s league as a player in 2007-08. Because Mitchell had a couple more home runs to go along with his sub .300 OBP? Also, at what point does playing second base badly in 2008 make that a valuable skill?

                   Jesus Christ. I mean, Brown has some shortcomings. But this is just complete idiocy and lunacy. If you fielded nine Derrick Mitchells you would lose 120 games.

                   LikeLike

                3. Alan, you’re an idiot. Mitchell may not be as good as Brown, but to say that he is awful is outrageous. His numbers before the all star break were very good, and although they didn’t continue to be that high, they were still good. And you have forgot the fact that Mitchell is a good clutch hitter. I’m not sure how many games it was exactly, but there were multiple situations were he was put at the plate in the 8th or 9th innings, and made hits to bring runners in, or set them up in scoring position.

                   Now I’m not saying that Mitchell is phenomenal right now, but he has the opportunity to be if he has the drive. Numbers aren’t everything, there’s more to it than that.

                   LikeLike

                4. Your argument loses all – as if it had any left – credibility when you drafted “clutch hitting” into it. Over that 2 year span I guarantee you that Mitchell’s BA in the 7-9 innings was close too if not identical to his overall BA. Spare us the “he’s a clutch hitter” BS.

                   Not to rain on your parade but prior to calling Alan an idiot for pointing out the numerous faults in your postings, you did claim that Mitchell was better than Brown. This is such an illogical comment that the majority literally thought you were purposely posting it just to see the reaction you’d get. In no measurement of a player is Mitchell even on the same planet as Brown, and I’ve been as critical of Brown as anyone. But you’re not even being truthful with yourself. At best Mitchell finds himself somewhere are a 5th OF. Please put the pipe down and take off the tin foil hat. Thanks.

                   LikeLike

             4. In the season that just passed, Dom Brown played at age 23 and was supposedly terrible. Brown played in AAA and the Major leagues. In Derrick Mitchell’s age 23 season, he was busy repeating High A. In Derrick Mitchell’s age 24 season, he had a WORSE season in AA, than Domonic Brown had in AAA, at a younger age.

                Domonic Brown, age 23: AAA, .769 OPS, .358 wOBA
                Derrick Mitchell, age 23: A, .770 OPS, .362 wOBA
                Derrick Mitchell, age 24: AA, .769 OPS, .342 wOBA

                LikeLike

15. RIGHT FIELD
    1. Kelly Dugan
    2. Brian Pointer
    3. Leandro Castro
    4. Steve Susdorf
    5. Anthony Hewitt

    LikeLike

    1. Taking out Pointer and Susdorf, whom I consider a left fielder, I would put Castro ahead of Dugan; then Hewitt, Rice, and (????) Lavin?. Who knows? Castro is the only legitimate prospect I see in right field. The system needs outfielders.

       LikeLike

       1. See above with Pointer and Susdorf, rated them here because they played RF this season. Castro only played 56 games and drew all of five walks all season. He’s another guy I see limited by pitch recognition. Good power. Dugan I see a pure bat with upside, still pretty young though it seems like he’s been around a while.

          LikeLike

          1. I’m a big fan of Dugan, next season is big for him, as he will really need to play full season and avoid injuries. But he has very nice power potential and has shown flashes that he has good potential.

             LikeLike

16. Regarding specifically the prediction regarding Brown next year, I think this is one of the relatively rare cases where spring training will make a big difference. I have enough faith in the Phillies’ organization to believe that they aren’t much concerned about his hitting. The question will be how he looks in the field in Spring training. If he looks signficantly more comfortable there, he will go north with the team. If not, he probably won’t.

    If it were me, I would plug him in LF regardless, but I think the Phillies, while of course not buying into the irrational fan hatred, are demonstrably less patient with younger players than … well than I would be certainly, but also probably most teams.

    If Brown does start in AAA, it will be interesting to see if Mayberry can handle the evday job. IMO he probably won’t be able to – a combination of problems hitting righties and low OB skills – but certainly I could be wrong, and obviously if his 2011 level fo performance can be maintained (even adjusting for the fact that he paced proportionately less right handers than a full time player would this season) he will be an every day player for someone.

    LikeLike

    1. Fun with numbers—-projectable?:
       Mike Morse–2010–293PAs, 15 HRs, 41 RBIs……289/352/519
       J.Mayberry—2011–261PAs, 14HRs, 47 RBIs…..270/333/525

       LikeLike

       1. Mike Morse is such an odd player that it’s hard for me to envision trying to compare him to Mayberry. Heck, most scouts aren’t sure of how to project Morse based on his own numbers! Trying to come up with comparable players to Mayberry (27 years old, similar OPS, late career start) I came up with Ryan Spilborghs, Ripper Collins, Brian Buchanan, John Baker, Jeff Frye. Ben Zobrist is intriguing, his age 27 numbers are similar if you want to play that game. The list oddly seems to favor players who struggled to settle into a position.

          The problem of course is that less than 300 PAs aren’t really projectable. They have a tendency to be flukish. Mayberry could be Morse. But Michael Morse is an extreme outlier. Most players with those numbers fall back to earth. That’s the problem with taking say, a 24 year old pitcher with mediocre numbers who turned out great. That player was one of dozens in that group, and was the exception. Others weren’t so fortunate.

          LikeLike

          1. thanks for the response.

             LikeLike

       2. Well first of all, while it’s a relatively minor factor you do have to reduce Mayberry’s numbers a little for the disproportionate number of PA he has against lefties. But that’s quibbling, even with that reduction his numbers are fine – if he can maintain them.

          But more signficant is sample size, in two respects. I know that people around here are sick of hearing about sample size, and there are a signficant minority who won’t ever accept that small sample sizes are unreliable, however much evidence is presented that they are. And for those of you who think that 261 PA is a meaningful sample, just stop reading now, you won’t be convinced.

          But let’s start with the Morse comparison, which is a sample size of one, and means … nothing. I mean, the fact that one players’ career took a certain trajectory … a player who is .. not even similar, had a somewhat similar stretch of less than 300 PA … has no predictive significance. At all. If we could find, say, a dozen players who were truely similar to Mayberry, and average their performance past the point of comparison, that would have some value. But one player, who isn’t even truly similar except in one very limited respect – not so much.

          Then there is the sample size of Mayberry’s season. 261 PA is a small sample. 1500 AAA PA, and almost 3000 overall minor league PA, present the picture of a player who can hit lefties very well, and righties not so well. His overall minor league numbers, and his AAA numbers especially, are significantly lower almost across the board than his major league performance this year. (And let’s not forget that his limited AAA performance this year was quite bad, signficantly worse than everybody’s favorite punching bag Brown,)

          Now, I don’t have the time to do a study of the issue, but I am quite sure that if you looked at 100 players with that sort of pattern – a half season of semi-platoon major league performance substantially better than projected by minor league performance, probably 90% of the time there is signficant regression.

          Of course, 90% isn’t 100%; that’s why I put in the qualifiers. Maybe – hopefully – I am wrong. But the Phillies would be foolish to bank on that. He would, though, make a fantastic platoon player, except that teams don’t platoon anymore, and, failing that, a fine 4th outfielder.

          LikeLike

          1. Not that generally speaking you aren’t right. Unanticipated gains at a relatively late point in development; platoon split protected; relatively poor strikeout/bb rates.

             But I don’t think you are entirely fair to dismiss the comparison altogether. They are not dissimilar players. Long, lean, athletic (Morse came up as a SS after all), massive raw power…

             I dunno, I like JM more than I ever thought I would. I love his new stance, love the shorter swing, love the plus defense in the OF (not at 1b mind you). He will make a nice foil next year mixing in with the Phillies new starting LF….. You all know who I’m talking about.

             LikeLike

          2. Mayberry’s improvement, as referenced by charlie and others, has been in good ABs. I started watching his pitch count per AB and he is impressive, especially lately. He pinch-hit the other day and had a 6 pitch AB. He’s had game after game where he’s made pitchers work. He used to be a guy who would see 2 pitches per AB and end up flying out or something.

             The Yankees owned Pedro Martinez not because they hit him well but because they would get him out of the game early because of pitch count. I remember Joe Torre saying that the strategy against Pedro was to foul off good pitch after good pitch. Don’t try to hit a HR off a great pitch, it just won’t happen. If you waste the tough pitches, eventually you get a mistake to hit. Of course, you have to be ready to punish a guy when the mistake comes. Pitch counts add up and it’s better to take your chances with the bullpen.

             LikeLike

             1. Nice post. That’s a baseball post.

                LikeLike

             2. Interesting observation, and cause for some optimism regarding Mayberry. The following is not by any means a rejection of your observations, but just a reason why perhaps we should be at least a litle cautious in taking too much from them.

                First, the month to month data absolutely backs up your subjective observations. Mayberry has, every month, increased (slightly) his pitches per PA. The data is on my other computer, but as I recall he’s taking about 6/10 of a pitch more per PA, September compared to April/May. Some reasons why we should, despite this, be cautious: If you look at his seasonal total (just under 4 P/PA), he is actually below his prior career total in that regard (exactly 4 P/PA before this year; granted, small sample size on that). In fact, only in September is he over 4 pitches per PA. I don’t have league wide data, but 4 P/PA is – not bad, really, but not extraordinary by any means. Really in a lot of ways April/March is an outlier – it’s more of the case that he recovered from a poopr start in terms of P/PA. And (more on this below) it doesn’t seem to be leading to measurably better BB or K data.

                Of course I’ll add my obligatory caution that we are dealing with some pretty small sample sizes in the monthly data.

                Now, as to what all this means, there are two levels of looking at it. If we talking about indirect effects – that is, helping other hitters on the team by tiring opposing pitchers – while that is a real and measurable effect – Mayberrys improvement in that regard isn’t really all that signficant. Even if we measure April/May versus September (and I think that exagerates the “real” improvement; the April/May data was really quite low and probably uncharacteristic), we’re talking about maybe 2 extra pitches per game.

                But looking at the direct effects, if the improvement is real, it absolutely could mean something. More selectivity = more good pitches to hit. The caution here – aside from some lingering questions as to whether we are seeing real improvement versu random fluctuations – is that I wonder if we are seeing greater selectivity on Mayberry’s part, as opposed to more caution on pitchers’ part – that is, the causation runs the other way, perhaps? Fangraphs has some pretty sophisticated data on selectivity, but they don’t provide splits for that data. For what little it is worth, his BB% is about the same in Sept as his overall BB data; his K% is actually pretty bad for the month. His best month for BB% was, oddly enough, April/May. Which means nothing probably, but all this points up just how unreliable the monthly data is.

                Finally, another interesting split, maybe encouraging, maybe just a reflection of the fact that he gets more pitches to hit against lefties. He has markedly better P/PA data versus righthanders than against left handers – 4.13 P/PA versus 3.74 P/PA.

                Overall a good post, and reason for some optimism. It doesn’t change my overall take on Mayberry, but maybe 80/20 rather than 90/10, in terms of regression risk?

                LikeLike

                1. That should be March/April, not April May.

                   LikeLike

             3. And this is a nice illustration as to why BOTH subjective observation AND statistical analsyis, taken together, result in the best analsysis. as opposed to either alone. There are times when we can test “subjective” observations by looking at raw data – as we can here. Sometimes it supports the subjective observations (e.g., Howard’s “clutch” performance this year), sometimes it doesn’t (e.g., Howard’s “clutch” performance on a career basis), sometimes a little of both (this case).

                LikeLike

                1. I’m just glad you didn’t swear at me. I know that some of the posts I reaqd are downright idiotic. I don’t usually respond to them unless they attack James, Gregg, Dave, Slash or any of the main contributers on this site. I won’t stand for people ragging on this site. You like to take guys to task but it’s not usually one of those guys that put a lot of time and effort into their contributions. So continue being devil’s advocate where a position needs to be questioned. I’ll accept any criticism thrown my way too. I don’t pretend to be a scout or top notch baseball guy. I’m a baseball lover who seeks out trends and makes observations accordingly. I usually find when I point out a trend then the trend changes. Like finding a guy who is hitting .400 in his last 10 games and then having the guy go 0 for his next 20.

                   LikeLike

                2. Well Bellman, say what you will about my choice of who I respond to & my manner of doing so, I think that when I DO respond to well thought out and polite posts like yours, I tend to do so productively and civilly.

                   FWIW, Fangraphs does break down the number of balls and strikes thrown to hitters by month. That data does not support my speculation that pitchers were pitching him more carefully as the season went on. Again, though, the month to month sample sizes are so low that I’d hesitate to draw many conclusions. But whether or not the improvement is “real” in a statistically meaningful sense, it’s certainly “real” in the sense that he has been seeing more pitches per PA as the season has gone on. You’r certainly correct about that.

                   As I think I’ve made clear, I would like nothing better than to be wrong about Mayberry. And even if I am not wrong, I think he’s going to at least have a nice career as a 4th outfielder.

                   LikeLike

    2. Mayberry is hitting RHP better than Werth did in 2007. Actually he’s hitting them much better when you factor in the overall league-wide decline in offense over the last 4 seasons.

       Mayberry (2011/Age 27)

       vs. LHP: 118 PA, .956 OPS
       vs. RHP: 157 PA, .796 OPS

       Werth (2007/Age 28)

       vs. LHP: 106 PA, 1.058 OPS
       vs. RHP: 198 PA, .760 OPS

       LikeLike

17. Are we paying Larry by the word??

    LikeLike

18. At the risk of falling too far into the subjective mode I would submit, despite Larrym’s fine stat work, that Mayberry “seems” to hit the ball with more authority, and I am not referring to home runs, but rather a number of the sharply hit balls down into the left field corner. Whether that is a function of his new stance, seemingly increased patience (as he seems to be avoiding the Burrell slider/strike area), or in fact, just the increased confidence and “swagger” that comes with even small sample successes. He may indeed regress, as would be expected, but I would agree with larrym that he is certainly intelligent enough, and now hungry enough, to take these successes and have a good career as a fourth OF, ph, and fill-in 1B. Ironically, his numbers compared to the now “missing” Werth are quite comparable despite one half the playing time ? I wonder if opposing teams are becoming more aware of his prescence given his high number of extra base hits – albeit small samle size ?

    LikeLike

    1. Glee…………’certainly intelligent enough’….as well as he should be, he is after all a Stanford guy like Ruben.

       LikeLike

    2. This deserves a longer post, but let me just say briefly that, as much as I ridicule most “intangible” arguments, I do believe that certain characteristics – intelligence, coachability, work ethic, etc., do often make a difference in player development, sometimes a huge difference. The problem is that it is difficult to identify in advance which players are exceptional in that regard – especially for the typical fan to do so. By the time it is obvious (e.g., Chase Utley), the player’s “make-up” has resulted in improved performance which is reflected statistically.

       I also think that MOST major leaguer players are hard workers, have good baseball intelligence, etc. The players who don’t have that are mostly weeded out at the minor league level.

       LikeLike

19. You also have to take into account the validity of the information put out about the players qualities. Some information is formulated only to make the club and/or coaches look good.
    e.g When Tony Taylor came here from the cubs they labeled him a trouble maker. While that is an old case, it proves the extent some will go. No matter how big a lie they have to tell.

    LikeLike

20. Some have mention mayberry. I really think he is a hard decesion for this club,has he finally found out how to hit? or is it just a flash in the pan season like others have had. moss really can’t catch up to a fastball what chance does he have,. people tend to forgot there is a big diffence from triple a to majors.

    LikeLike

    1. Don’t think it will be too hard of a decision with Mayberry. They will plan to use him as the 4th OF (Francisco’s role at the beginning of the season) and add a Left-handed LF bat (Brown or a low-cost FA). If Mayberry maintains his performance, his role increases, if not, his role diminishes.

       This isn’t much different than Werth’s early career with the Phillies where the plan was that he would share time in RF with Jenkins and he ended up winning the job full-time based on performance.

       LikeLike

       1. It’ll be interesting to see what happens to Francisco. I’m guessing he gets non-tendered and the Phillies seek out an outfield bench player more capable of playing center field.

          LikeLike

21. Fransisco’s situation is interesting. On the surface, based on how he is used, you would think he would be non-tendered. But because he doesn’t make any money and his numbers won’t get him a significant raise in arbitration, they might keep him.

    LikeLike

    1. Don’t think they will keep him simply because he’s redundant with Mayberry’s emergence as a player. They are similar players but Mayberry is the better athlete, has more power, and can play more positions.

       LikeLike

    2. Not likely in a hundred years—not sure what you are smoking. Ben makes $1.1M this year….what do you think he will take a 50% cut or something equivalent to stay as a back-up! Don’t think he is back.

       LikeLike

       1. The internal OF bench options for next year are slim (I’m assuming that Brown is either a regular or in AAA). I don”t totally reject the notion that someone like Overbeck will eventually get a shot at a bench role, but not for the Phillies in 2012. If they have to go outside the organization, and they want someone decent, they are going to have to pay more than the minimum. 1.1 million is nothing when the payroll is over 160 million. And if Brown does start the season in AAA, there may be 2 spots on the bench, not just one.

          All that said, certainly a non-tender is possible. I would keep him – I think he has a lot more value than most people around here think, he would certainly be the best 5th OF in baseball – but his usage pattern in the second half of the season suggests that the Phillies may disagree. Though his 2nd half performance has actually been decent – .326 BA and .360 OBA, though without any power. Not that 50 PA is much of a sample, and the BA is to some extent BABIP driven.*

          But I’d certainly rather see them offer him arbitration than bring on an overpriced, mediocre FA. And I think the chance that they do that is close to 50%.

          *Making up for bad BABIP luck in the first half – gee, why didn’t anyone around here predict that Francisco’s BA would improve as time went on as his BABIP normalized? Oh, that’s right, some of us did predict that..

          LikeLike

          1. For some perspective, Ross Gload’s salary in 1.6 million. Eric Hinske’s salary is 1.35 million. FA 4th/5th OF are generally paid 1 million plus.

             And yes, I know there are people here who are convinced, just convinced that Overbeck or Mitchell or whoever should get that 5th OF spot. For those people, there’s not a lot I can say, except that, rightly or wrongly, the Phillies don’t tend to slot those kind of players into bench roles. The real choice is going to be Francisco or a FA OF at a similar salary or more. In my mind, the reason they may not bring Francisco back is that they may want to sign a player who they feel can step in as a regular if neither Brown or Mayberry work out, or a left hander to platoon with Mayberry if Brown isn’t ready. If they are comfortable with Brown/Mayberry as the regulars next year, and just need a 5th OF, Francisco will (and should) be tendered.

             LikeLike

          2. I totally agree with you on the rebound of Francisco’s BA due to an abysmal first half BABIP. It couldn’t possible remain so low over a full season sample size. However his SLG is still awful for a corner OF and is something to be concerned about.

             And I agree that they should strongly consider offering him arbitration as opposed to weeding through the garbage that’s out there.

             LikeLike

          3. Problem with keeping Francisco isn’t his expected salary but rather that he’s a right-handed hitter with limited position options. Assuming Gload won’t be back, their need is for a left-handed bat off the bench who can also play the OF. Since there are no internal options, that will force them to go elsewhere (FA/Trade)

             LikeLike

             1. If Gload isn’t back, what direct affect does that have on bringing back Francisco? Are you actually saying that they’re not bringing back Bowker?

                LikeLike

                1. If Gload isn’t back they need a left-handed bench player and no, I’m not expecting Bowker or Moss to be that player…

                   LikeLike

                2. Let’s see – 5 bench spots, catcher, IF (they won’t keep 2 next year), 2 OF. The final slot should be a guy with a lot of positional flexibility – maybe a 3B/1B/OF – say a Gregg Dobbs type. They could get their left handed bat from that bench spot.

                   I agree that the fact that Francisco is right handed reduces the chance that he is retained, but it does not eliminate it.

                   LikeLike

                3. Also a factor, as much as I am a Brown booster, there is a chance he starts in AAA. That would open up yet another spot on the bench, with Mayberry the regular.

                   In fact, the more I think about it, the more I think they will tender him. It’s not like he’s looking at a significant raise in arbitration.

                   LikeLike

                4. IF Brown starts in AAA, there is more emphasis for the Phillies to go out and get a LH outfielder. I don’t see them just giving the full-time job to Mayberry based on 1/2 season.

                   LikeLike

                5. Larry- if Gload was considered an IF/OF type, although he’s become clearly just a PH, couldn’t Mayberry also be considered such as he plays all 3 OF positions and 1B?

                   Does this have any effect on their thought process of bringing back Francisco?

                   LikeLike

                6. BTW – I was kidding about Bowker.

                   LikeLike

22. A guy not mentioned in LF is Overbeck. He didn’t get much time there this season, but I think that is where the Phillies want to put him and that he will continue to work on his OF skills this winter and in ST. If he shows any improvement at all, I expect him to be the Allentown starting LF next season, with Brown in Philadelphia. Pence, Victorino, Brown/Mayberry, possibly with Francisco as the 5th OF. Brown/Mayberry each get more AB than in a typical LF platoon, with Mayberry also spelling Howard at 1B and Vic in CF. Overbeck has one of the better bats in a Phillies organization which is deficient in quality bats in the minors. He is not a total defensive stiff like Rizzotti and likely can learn to play as good an OF as Susdorf.

    LikeLike

23. Lubanski is worth taking a closer look…former first round pick, an All-Star at every level, solid ISO and BA BIP over his career, did very well in Triple A last year with Toronto, lefthanded bat with power, leg injury cutshort promising 2009 season with KC, away from affiliated ball most of 2011, and he would be cheap to sign back and take a shot with.

    LikeLike

Comments are closed.