Thanks to everyone for submitting questions. Some of you submitted like 10 questions each. I’m gonna have to pick and choose. First question
Dan asks
Thank you for taking my question. I am wonder what the prospects are for Jeremy Barnes, both next year and beyond? He seems to be a forgotten man among fans on your website. When healthy last year he hit extremely well and played all over the infield.
At 23, turning 24 in April, Barnes needs to move real fast, and has to really hit if hes going to make the majors. His .292/.383/.441 line at Lakewood is decent, but not for a 23 year old. He split time between 2B and 3B, and his future lies as a utility infielder if he can hit enough to get there. He didn’t show much home run power, but did end up with 38 doubles in 461 PA. He needs to finish at Reading this year and prove he can hit quality pitching if he’s going to end up making it to the bigs.
Check below for the rest.
Jeff asks
Harold Garcia has really seemed to emerge in 2010, and the Phillies have seemed to notice him – especially with regards to getting him some reps as an outfielder. What are you thoughts on him as a prospect, and what kind of role do you see him playing in the next couple of years?
Garcia definitely emerged in 2010, hitting well after being promoted to Reading. He doesn’t have much power, but he has above average speed and is a good defender at 2B. Garcia’s approach will be tested at AA/AAA, as he drew just 27 BB to go with 94 K in 462 PA. His solid defense and speed will make him an asset as a utility infielder, but its tough to see him as a starter unless he draws more walks or hits for more power. If he could play shortstop capably well, he would be an ideal utility guy, but as it stands, he still has a good chance of contributing in the majors, probably some time in 2012.
Tom asks
Not a big fan of trade rumors/suggestions, but I do have one. Would like your thoughts on fairness of a Dom Brown (and maybe another B level player) for Cody Rasmus. Lots of talk about him not fitting in with LaRussa. So, who says no, Phils or Cards?
I have a feeling this is a deal the Cardinals would flatly reject. Rasmus has big league experience, patience and power, and is an excellent defensive CF. Brown has a similar offensive profile, with perhaps a slightly higher offensive ceiling, but is more of a RF and is less refined defensively. The Cardinals would likely require more than Brown, and would probably ask for a proven big leaguer. I am a big fan of Rasmus though, and if he is available, it would be wise for the Phillies to check in.
Ben asked a few good questions. First
Given the Phillies veritable stable full of high-minors relief arms, who do you think has the best shot at becoming an impactful big leaguer? Obviously you’ve been on the De Fratus express for a while now, and he has done nothing but blow guys away since moving to the ‘pen, but who else? Rosenberg seems to have topped out at AAA. Schwimer? Mathieson? Do you see Worley as a bullpen guy? Josh Zeid blew guys away at Lakewood, and there were upper-90s velo reports. Could he be fast-tracked as well, given his age? And what of Mike Stutes, who struck out plenty of guys at 2A/3A but also walked 44 in 76 innings (his BB rates were worse as a reliever than as a starter)? It would seem you could throw Michael Cisco in that group too, after showing great control but not strikeout stuff in a full year at Reading.
A bunch of the names you mentioned could definitely fill in the 6th-7th inning roles. If a guy like Chad Durbin can do it for 3 years with modest stuff and average at best command, then a guy like Cisco has a chance. De Fratus is my favorite of the arms at this point, as he has power stuff and excellent control. Schwimer doesn’t have quite the same raw stuff, but has a great idea of what he’s doing on the mound and has shown excellent peripherals thus far. Zeid would seem to have the ability to see his stuff tick up as a reliever. He should be moved to the pen and moved quickly. Stutes actually seems like a Durbin clone, primarily fastball/slider in the 89-91 range. I actually think that Worley fits better as a starter, as he doesn’t have a knockout secondary pitch, and will rely on his sinker to induce weak contact. I prefer those guys (guys who lack a strikeout pitch) as back end starters, unless they can get their velocity to tick up significantly in relief.
Obligatory Julio Rodriguez question…any new scouting reports or tidbits?
Nothing new. The last I read, he was 90-93 in his first inning or two of an appearance, and then dropped down to 87-90. He has a big breaking curveball, which accounts for a lot of the strikeouts he was able to rack up in short season and A ball. He has a big frame and if the Phillies could unlock a bit more from his fastball, he could make it as a quality starter. But at this point, I’m more skeptical than his raw stat line would indicate.
What of the infield prospects? Galvis is the same story. Garcia’s peripherals at Reading after the promotion give me pretty significant pause (5.8% BB, 24.7% K, .353 BABIP). Is there anyone else of note in the system? And how about Domingo Santana? His line is unusual because it seems that guys who walk a lot tend to have good pitch recognition/ability to make contact. Is he recognizing off-speed stuff and swinging through it, or is he totally clueless up there? I know he’s still very young and still in great shape ARL, but I feel like there’s reason for concern and for a move down the prospect rankings.
Galvis is still the same story. If he can’t make consistent contact and at least hit an empty .275, the odds of him being a starter are almost zero. But he’s still so young, its tough to give up on him with the bat yet. I addressed Garcia above, I want to see an entire season of him at AA/AAA before I really believe in him as a starter. Cesar Hernandez is probably my favorite sleeper middle infielder, and I’ll probably rank him in the same vein as Villar last year. On Santana, I think his struggles were a factor of being really young and really inexperienced against tougher pitching. He could repeat Lakewood for 2 more seasons and he’d still be age appropriate for the SAL. His physical gifts are abundant, he showed the ability to draw walks even when he was really struggling. He has to make more contact, and 2011 will be an important year for his development. A full season at Lakewood should tell us what we have, but I’m still really high on him.
From Albert
Here’s my question: The Phillies obviously see David Herndon’s ceiling as higher than a middle relief prospect. What do you see as his ceiling, what does he have to do to get there, and where/in what role does he start 2011?
If you followed my twitter rants, you know I’m a big Herndon fan, and I felt he was really ridiculously unlucky this year. Guys seldom made solid contact against him, and the result was a lot of weakly hit groundballs and flares that found space. Herndon’s .361 BABIP was exceptionally high, but he showed good command, walking on 13 (+4 intentional) in 52 IP. He didn’t miss a ton of bats (29 K) but he only gave up 2 HR, while ticking up his K rate in the 2nd half (16K in 22 IP compared to 13K in 30 IP in the first half) so he might have started to figure something out. His big issue is his platoon split, as lefties tuned him up at a .328/.421/.484 rate. The big thing that separates him from Kyle Kendrick, a similar pitcher, is his fastball. Herndon consistently hit 93-94 on his fastball in a relief role. Whether he can sustain this velocity as a starter is the big question. If he consistently throws a 93 mph sinker and generates tons of groundballs, he could function as a quality 5th starter. Like Kyle Kendrick, he doesn’t really have an out pitch, though his slider made some progress. The Phillies obviously like his arm, protecting him on the 25 man roster all season. My guess is that he will be given the chance to develop as a starter in AAA this year, and if that doesn’t work, he will be tried again in middle relief.
Nick provided a bunch of questions, I’m gonna rapid fire answer them.
Rank these pitchers in order of who you think will have a better overall career: Colvin/Cosart/May/JC Ramierez/Biddle/Drabek/Happ/Carrasco/Knapp
Colvin – Drabek – Cosart – Happ – Biddle – May – Knapp – Carrasco – Ramirez
It seems that the Phillies tend to buy their infielders from the international league and their pitchers and OFers from the draft, do you agree with this statement and do you think it’s wise?
I think its wise to maximize our resources both internationally and domestically. Talent is talent, and it doesn’t matter where we get pitchers or infielders or outfielders from. The international market is riskier, because the players are more than 2 years younger than their domestic counterparts, and less is known about those players.
Which hitter and pitcher that doesn’t get too much “chatter” on your site/and others are ones to follow in 2011?
Since I’ve spent less time here than I’d have liked this season, I’m not entirely sure of the barometer here in terms of hyping our guys. I think Cesar Hernandez and Colby Shreve are two of my favorite guys who aren’t really in our top 10 at this point.
In MLB overall, who are your personal top 10 prospects?
Too early for this. But Mike Trout is #1
In terms of talent, where do you think the Phills compare with the rest of the Division? MLB?
Farm system? MLB? Farm system + MLB team? I think our system is in the top 10-15, our MLB roster is in the top 5, and the overall combination puts us in the top 5. But this would require a lot more analysis and thought.
Is it me or are the Phillies building up a core of young pitchers to build around,and possibly looking to buy their hitters in the future; since cheap effective pitching works well here and big bats will always come here to play where a pitcher may not via free agency?
It was Pat Gillick’s philosophy to not give long term deals to pitchers, and Ruben Amaro seems to have inherited the same philosophy. From that point of view, investing in cheap pitching in the draft and then spending your big bucks on position players (who are, theoretically, more reliable than pitchers) seems to be a smart strategy.
Assuming Werth leaves via free agency and assuming we offer him arbitration, and assuming he doesn’t accept, would you rather the Phills keep their 2x 1st round picks or if payroll allows it, go after a type A free agent? Another words is this 2011 draft with 2x 1st round picks the perfect time to rebuild?
Every year the draft should be viewed as a great chance to re-stock. If an elite Type A free agent is available who would make the big league team better, then losing the pick shouldn’t deter the team from signing him. If you lose a pick, you have the ability to break slot later in the draft to offset this loss of a high pick.
What do you think is the best projection of Savery as a hitter?
Not much. If hes limited to 1B, the offensive threshold is extremely high. I don’t see him ever becoming a regular in the majors.
Dugan/Collier/Hudson how do you rank them? And how much faith do you have in them getting to the majors?
Dugan (30% chance) – Collier (20% chance) – Hudson (10% chance)
Couldn’t think of another question but had to finish the “top 10” list so ….How much do you hate Cody Ross?
Infinity to the infinity power.
John asked a few questions as well, some of them I’ve answered above, but a few others.
What is the feeling around the league about Matt Rizzotti? Can he bring back a decent player in a trade?
He was great in 2010. He needs to repeat that in 2011 at AAA. If he does that, he could be a nice complimentary piece in a trade. If the Phillies want to get the most from him in a deal, they’d be wise to start him every day at 1B, try to improve his defense, and that will open up 15 other teams (in the NL) who might have some interest instead of a DH-only team.
Would the Phillies at this point invest more in drafting college players in order to get them to the majors and help the club
The Phillies tend to value athletes with high ceilings as well as college players coming off of injuries/disappointing seasons. Its a nice value philosophy. The Phillies probably liked Rupp because of his plus power for the position and because his defense got solid reviews in college, not to mention his experience catching elite pitchers at Texas. The Phillies take a few college guys in the first 10 rounds every year, and they take lots of raw athletes. I don’t expect this to change any time soon.
Which position college players are interesting enough for the Phillies to warrant interest? Preferably 3B and SS
I haven’t even begun looking at this year’s college class, but from everything I’ve read, this year’s draft class looks very deep.
What player in the minors right now carries Rollins leadership traits?
This is one I have no idea on. Its tough to really know about the leadership qualities of 19, 20, 21 and 22 year olds. We’ll have to wait and see.
I got 2 emails asking about performances at Instructional League. I don’t have anything to share here, other than Jon Singleton moving to LF. Thanks everyone for the questions.
Phuture Phillies 
The Phillies are near the bottom of teams spending on the draft. They can bust a slot any time they want to. Plus some of the non Werth money can be diverted to those extra picks. BTW I am neuter on the Werth contract.
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Nowheels,
I wouldn’t neuter yourself over the Werth contract if I were you but that would be a real show of fandom…
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If they resign Werth, the money needs to come from Ibanez. I would do what I can to trade him, paying as much as half or more to save money for this year. Not that the money is what matters – I want a young player in the outfield this year. In order to turn the lineup over without ruining their chances of success, it needs to be gradual. 2011 is going to be the start of that gradual change, one way or another. If Werth stays, Ibanez’s spot has to go.
Also, the team needs to improve. Ibanez is holding them back. His performance was well below acceptable for a split team game in the preseason. And while I am not isolating Ibanez as the root of all our problems (far from it), he is the most expendable. I would also like to see the Phillies get a real hitting coach, some fresh ideas in the stale Phillies coaching staff. These guys need major help.
I also would like to see the Phillies really make a play to acquire a talented SS in the minors to get him ready. We must have trade bait available to get a top-talent one.
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3up3kkk lol
I don’t know what the hell I was thinking. Now that I am officially an old fart( the U.S. government says so) I shouldn’t blog right after dinner.
I get sleepy and somewhat silly. Anyway I am glad to entertain.
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Re: Trout as #1. Do you decline to rank Bryce Harper until he plays a professional game? I think the top prospect list by BA will look something like Harper, Trout, D.Brown as the top three.
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I’ll take Trout over Harper. Trout is a gold glove CF with 30/30 potential. And can probably steal 40-50 at his peak. Harper might be a 40 HR guy, but I think Trout ends up with a higher OB% and what he loses in power he’ll make up with his speed and defensive value
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Some just really wierd stuff about Werth/Ibanez, and we keep seeing the same stuff again and again.
(1) Regarding the odd notion that you would have to get rid of Ibanez to sign Werth, one contract has nothing to do with the other. Werth is going to cost at least twice as much per year, and, more to the point, is looking for 5 plus years, versus one year left for Ibanez. The remaining Ibanez contract is pocket change compared to what they would need to pay for Werth. But in the extremely unlikely event that the Phillies would be stupid enough to decline to sign Werth because of the Ibanez contract, then getting rid of Ibanez won’t help, since there is no way they could dump him without eating almost all of his contract.
(2) Setting aside the Werth issue (and in addition to what I said above, it’s pretty clear the Phillies won’t, and probably shouldn’t, give Werth the kind of contract he is looking for, for reasons entirely independant of the the Ibanez contract), while I’m not the biggest Ibanez fan, chances are, like it or not, he’ll be the starter next year. The FA options are limited (i.e., either demanding too many years, or not a signficant upgrade over Ibanez, and most of the names that come up as trade targets are fantasies). I’d love to be wrong about the latter (I’m not wrong about the former), but I’d guess that there is at least an 80% chance that he starts 140 games in 2011.
And IF he suffers no further decline (a big if), that’s … not ideal, but not as bad as some peoplethink. His overall numbers, while disappointing, improved a lot over the course of the season, and were well above replacement value.
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While it’s not guaranteed that Ibanez will suffer a further decline, at his age it’s hardly a BIG if to suppose that he will. In deciding what tweaks RA needs to make for the Phillies to succeed next season, it is indeed prudent to assume that Ibanez will decline in both AB and OPS. His SLG declined severely in 2010. I’m expecting about 400 AB and .750 OPS from Ibanez, with declining defense, in 2011.
Allentown
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I just can’t get it, how can BA or any one put Harper who has not played a professional game or Dom Brown on their top prospect list when Dom Brown’s defensive skills are so bad? His defense has been bad since 2006 and has not gotten any better. So how can he be #1 ? Don’t out fielding count for something? Last time I watched a major league game, defense was a major part of the game. Replacing Werth a good outfielder with Brown who is not a good outfielder is not good for the team.
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Domonic Brown bad defense sucks *yawn*. Try attaching a name to your posts.
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How many games did you see Brown play?? I don’t think we know enough of his outfielding to say it is bad. I know I have seen some video showing he has a real strong arm. Give the kid the opportunity to play first. Yeah we saw him take a bad break or two when he first came up.
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I can’t seem to agree with myself on Werth. He does many things well but
.186 with men on(8 rbi in each July and August). His best numbers are with none on. Could he be a giant leadoff man???? lol Pass the brandy Boris
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The Domonic Brown naysayers are just ridiculous. Let the kid play a couple of seasons and then you can pile on if he still isn’t producing. But I think the doubters will be gone soon enough. Dom Brown is going to be a player, but he’s probably not going to hit his peak for several years. He’s going to be good fairly quickly, but greatness may take some time. All the tools are there and he’s a hard worker. If you get impatient, take a look back some guys like Bonds and Mantle – they didn’t become superstars overnight. For every Albert Pujols there is a Mickey Mantle. In Mantle’s first year he hit 13 home runs and only .267 (he also only hit 21 homers and .295 in his third year). Dom Brown’s first year could look a lot like that and, you know what, it would be a successful year. The rapid progression of Utley and Howard (who were old when they got a chance to play regularly) have left us with a false impression of how quickly prospects improve. It takes time with most young players.
PP – on Stutes, my thinking is exactly like yours – he’s our next Chad Durbin – he might even end up being a little better.
It’s also interesting that you think that Happ will end up having a better MLB career than either Biddle or May. Obviously Happ is already an established major leaguer, so he has a huge headstart, but I think one of May or Biddle and probably both will end up being a better pitcher than Happ but, of course, it’s all just a guessing game. I can’t wait until May and Rodriguez hit AA and we can really see what we have in them. Both are so very intriguing.
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Why are people ripping down Dom Brown over 70 PAs at the MLB level?
Seriously, he had SEVENTY PAs total. Talk about overreactions.
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Dr. Steve, you need to come to grips that Ibanez is going to be playing a lot of games in LF in 2011. The Phillies would have to eat a ton of money in order to trade him. And if you feel that the Phillies need to put a young guy in LF, what makes you think other teams don’t want to do the same thing? Who wants a 38 year old in LF? If you’re a young team or a team with a limited payroll, there’s no upside in trading for Ibanez. Ibanez is going nowhere.
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I’ve been thinking about this for a bit, and there are 2 scenarios where Ibanez is not on the roster for 2011:
1. The Phillies just eat Ibanez’s contract and cut him. They did it with Geoff Jenkins and Adam Eaton.
2. The Phillies trade Ibanez’s absurd contract for an even bigger absurd contract. For example, the Phillies call up Ed Wade and offer Ibanez (1 year, $12M) for Carlos Lee (2 years, $38M) and $13M. You think the owner of the Astros wouldn’t want to save $13M?
Of course, both of the scenarios I listed above are big longshots.
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Ibanez has a no trade clause. Unfortunately he’s not going anywhere. Just another horrible amaro contract. It’s terrifying to think about boras negotiating werth’s contract with amaro (I don’t think that’s gonna happen)
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All of those horrible , absurd contracts produced the best record in MLB in the 2010 regular season. Where are most all of the more highly rated types by the “stats” oriented now that the championship is on, on vacation. There is something to be said for a veteran line-up, especially now that a solid core to the pitching staff has been established. Every player they have is tradeable. Ibanez could have good season in the next season, and it would not surprise if he would outperform the Rollins, Howard, even Utley trio in the 2011 season and numerous times thought he was more likely to hit in 2010 at various times than that lot. So he might be acceptable to keep, despite what those firm in the knowledge of date of birth “stats” might believe. If not , an offseason trade could be arranged , but not in a way that deletes the salary. Beerleaguer listed some offseason trades for Ibanez. Some of them make sense, starting with San Francisco spare part Aaron Rowand, who has 2 years at 12 million per year as opposed to Ibanez at 11.5 million for one year, plus SF will be well served to add a LH Hitter. Also the Carlos Lee trade could be made, though a defensive downgrade, he could conceivably be shoehorned into the 4th spot in the line-up , breaking up the Howard-Utley spot and cancelling out the possibility of the vulnerability to LH relievers thing along with some other moves. I also think they could trade Ibanez for Oliver Perez and add a LH pitcher, as a prelude to other OF moves.
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Lee posted an .708 OPS this year and he’s worse than Ibanez defensively. Please explain why this is better for us. Even if he bounces back to the guy that posted an .831 OPS in 2009, that’s not all that much better than Ibanez this year and it was far worse than Ibanez in 09.
Just because he’s 5 years younger it doesnt mean he’s likely to be better.
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I would like to see Francisco get more playing time next year. He’s got a career .775 OPS mostly playing his home games in a slight pitcher’s park. He’s 29 so he aught to be near his peak. He’s not a great fielder but he’s not a liability in the outfield like Ibanez. At the very least he should start every game against lefties to spell either Ibanez or Brown. He’s wasted as a pinch hitter, he could start for plenty of teams.
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Oliver Perez very well could be the worst pitcher in the history of organized baseball.
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Everyone is making this too complicated with Ibanez if Werth leaves.
At worst, he is likely to be an okay player and a steadying influence and at best he is an asset at the plate. There is one year left on his contract and he is a known commodity.
They will not subtract, they will add. Expect another right-handed hitter to arrive to shore things up in case others do not produce. It could be Rowand but, seriously, the Phils will not surrender anyone valuable (think Austin Hyatt or J.C. Ramirez) to get him and the Giants will have to eat about half of that contract. At $ 6-7 million a year (basically, over 2 years, he would be paid about 2/3 of what Werth will get annually), Rowand would be a nice little insurance policy and, playing in CBP, he could get his stroke back (I don’t know how any hitter plays at AT&T or Citibank and does not get into horrible hitting habits – those places are veritable canyons). Rowand also is a great clubhouse guy and provides another year of service when Ibanez leaves after 2011 (which seems inevitable). If the team thinks Rowand has something left in the tank, the move makes some sense.
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Can anybody confirm that Ibanez has a full no-trade clause? If yes, then we are wasting our breath talking about trade scenarios for him.
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Here’s a thought. I’m not a fan because I actually think they should let Werth move on especially if he gets the Jason Bay like contract that is expected.
Trade Ibanez and Roy Oswalt – I doubt it would happen to keep Werth. But I could see little Roy getting moved. Yeah I know. That will fire everybody up. I really like Oswalt and having him with Hallady and Hamels, but I’m a believer you have to consider everything. There’s a chance a deal like that makes you young and good fast, especially depending on who doesn’t get Lee. Oh and I’m assuming Oswalt’s no trade clause is voided because of the trade.
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PRD: Why would a contending team trade Roy Oswalt? No one is taking Ibanez contract, so people need to get off of it.
There will be a platoon situation next year that will serve the team better than anything out there. Rowand is intriguing, but not sure he gives you anything better than Francisco right now. Maybe you add RH bat at mid-season after evaluating the performance of the lineup with Francisco / Brown platoon and bring closure to Mayberry as a player. You are probably looking at Francisco moving from RF to LF platoon as the Brown develops and Ibanez seemingly loses it. Mayberry may be in play as well, but my sense is the team buries him in LHV as insurance for Ibanez.
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great piece very interesting stuff. We’re all kind of guessing and thats the fun of it. A week ago I would have said there was no chance Werth comes back but now I believe differently. I think there is a chance albeit a remote one. Listened to a Boras interview and he eluded to the fact Jason would offer a home town discount but that is contingent upon there not being a $100M contract offer from someone else. Crawford is going to drive that market so Jason most likely will get offers from whomever loses out on him.
I think its wrong that Ibanez has a No Trade Clause but I’ve been unable to verify that. Oswalt still has a full no trade it doesn’t matter that he waived it to come here he still has it.
I agree with whoever said they should platoon Francisco in Left Field with Ibanez. If I had to bet I would say they trade Victorino for a guy like Kemp or Rios should they not get Werth to come back.
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Francouer is a cheap right handed hitting rightfielder whose defense would be a great platoon wih Brown and he already knows the divsion very well. He’s a FA and won’t cost much because he hasn’t hit well in 3 years. That’s the only bench change for next year.
One drafting thought: Name a starting major league SS who wasn’t a 1st or 2nd round draft pick. There are lots of Latin signees, several 1st round picks (Tulo and Drew) and J Roll was a 2nd round pick. Any later than the 2nd round? Bottom line is if you can’t draft a SS in the 1st or 2nd round, you won’t find a starter in the draft (there just aren’t that many) and you should spend your money looking for a SS in the Latin players. This is what the Phillies are doing as are other teams.
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Theriot and Manzella were third rounders. Keppinger was a fourth round pick. Nomar Garciaparra is retired now but he was a fifth round pick. What’s interesting though is that there are a lot of players, Amos Otis, Wade Boggs, Hal McRae, etc. who were drafted as shortstops but made it elsewhere.
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I have mentioned before that I think the Phillies like Mags from the Tigers. He would be able to be had for a 1 year deal for less than Werth made this year. Randy Miller from the Bucks County Courier Times was on WIP this morning and said he thinks a 1 year $8 mill gets it done and that the Phils have discussed him. Yes, he is old, but I think both Brown and Francisco will get some time in 2011, spelling Mags and Ibanez. He also mentioned trading Utley for David Wright and putting Polanco at second. I cannot see either the Phils or Mutts doing that.
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Please…no Aaron Rowland. He has been a complete loss for the Giants in that he couldn’t hit worth a lick so his numbers have declined along with a great decline in number of games he is inserted into the lineup. He does very well as a bench-sitter.
The Phils recognized his shortcomings and were happy that he signed elsewhere when he became a free agent.
He has been sucking up those big bucks millions for the Giant length of his present contract. Useless. Waste of money. Bad investment. Little return. Etc.
Werth’s loss should bring us 4 piocks within the first two rounds of the ’11 draft. Hope we don’t lose any of them by signing a free agent who was offered arb’n by his present team…which would cost us one of those picks. A FA who won’t cost us a draft pick or a trade (no premier prospect included) would be fine since, IMO, he would be a non-starter but rather a fill-in guy to platoon.
The opportunity to draft 4 w/in the 2 rounds is now essential for this franchise:
Shortstop and 3rd base remain missing w/in the farm system with both positions soon due for filling if the franchise is to continue to be competitive. Thus, though RA thinks mostly of the next season, it is time to look beyond next year or the year thereafter. We know that promising OFers and pitchers abound in the system now and for the immediate future—>in 2-3 years.
In those 4 draft choices in a year when the ranks of richly talented players is supposedly deep, drafting 3-4 SSs and 3rd basemen should be a goal…maybe fitting a pitcher in there, too.
That is an additional reason to let Werth leave with arbitration offered but turned down.
Age and injury-vulnerability could take this franchise down in the next 2 yrs. Repair/replacement now to be seriously addressed!
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“PRD: Why would a contending team trade Roy Oswalt? No one is taking Ibanez contract, so people need to get off of it. ”
WHY would a team trade Cliff Lee for three hotdogs? Neither question is really answerable. Forget the restock bull. If Werth goes we would be looking at four top picks plus one.
Just get ready for something stupid in December.
I would eat the money for Raul before I take on anyone else’s problems.
Roster spot are precious and the only Rule 5 pick I would make is a infielder. Forget the Herndons of the world. This is especially true next year when you will have to sort out which reliever is which maybe by rotating them.
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David Wright is the worst gold glove 3rd baseman ever and I would not make a trade with the muts. Utley and Howard are mainstays and will not be traded. Victorino has an affordable contract that can be traded, but who is your lead off hitter when Rollins goes down again and eventually leaves after 2011.
I am not hearing many good things about Matt Kemp anyway, a true under achiever. Rios contract is too long to absorb, why not just resign Werth. We already have a guy like Magglio, who is old and losing production, and his name is Raul Ibanez. Be-it, he can hit lefties.
Keep Ibanez, Francisco will be your RF platoon during the first half and LF platoon during the second half, with Brown taking over full time. Acquire another RF if Brown cannot do it. Franceur is a loser, don’t want him on my team. Rios will be playing on a loser and would potentially be available at the deadline for less. I think the White Sox owe us anyway for the rotten Garcia deal.
No wheels: Too funny, we should all brace ourselves. Not sure if there is a deal werth making our there over the winter. Let us have faith in Ibanez, Mayberry and Francisco for at least the first half 2011.
Of course, if the Phillies had their own TV network, this would be all moot and Werth would be resigned.
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Nowheels your consistent and passionate dislike for all things Ruben A. is both exhausting and somewhat amazing. Just out of curiosity are there GM’s that you are a fan of.
But I also must thank you for pointing out what I thought was fairly obvious: If a contending team can trade Cliff Lee there doesn’t seem to be a obvious reason why they would be willing to trade Roy Oswalt.
On the Oswalt no trade clause, what I wasn’t sure of was if that was a part of his contract or a part of his years of service. Can’t a player get trade protection if he has been in the majors for the same team for a period of time? If so, when that is waived and they are traded does that nullify their no trade clause? I looked briefly and couldn’t find details on the nature of his no trade clause.
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Ibanez isn’t going anywhere, just stop with these stupid trades. Why would they want carlos lee post steriods, he stinks. Why would any team in the NL want him? If he had any value teams would have called the phillies earlier in the yr when they were slumping and he was starting to heat up. You can get away with him in LF for one more yr and no one expects him to rob hr’s or gun guys out at the plate from the warning track. Just catch the easy ones, hit the cut off man, hit .280 with 15 hrs and 75 rbi like he has the first 2 yrs, not too bad huh? Btw no one was complaining when he was carrying the team for 4 weeks. Offer arb to werth, take the draft picks when he declines, sign I hate to say it, Cody F’ing Ross to platoon in RF (i think he is a FA) b/c I really can’t see mayberry getting semi-regular playing time. Plus if we get Ross he gets to bring that stupid beard of his to replace werths stupid beard.
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I’m sorry but if they ever traded Utley I would never support the team again….I lied, I would give in eventually. Utley plays a premium position very well and hits. I don’t want to hear how he is injury prone, getting hit in the hand with a 135mph fastball would break anyones hand or when he hurt his hand running the bases a few yrs ago. He plays balls to the wall every night is the leader and face of the franchise, you better be getting back Zimmerman, Kinsler, Andrus and King Felix back if they traded him. David Wright stinks, I would never trade with the mets not even eric bruntlett b/c he is too good for them. When do pitchers and catchers report?
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Alan ~ Nomar Garciaparra was certainly a 1st round pick. Not sure what number and dont have time to look it up but definitely a 1st round pick.
Your point is well-taken though. Most SS’s are either high round draft picks or Latin American signings. Off the top of my head, the only guys I can think of that do not fit that description are Jason Bartlett and Marco Scutaro. Not positive on Barletts draft round but pretty sure it was not real high. And Scutaro wasn’t even drafted I believe.
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“Nowheels your consistent and passionate dislike for all things Ruben ”
Now pay attention. I am NOT a fan of the Winter Meetings. I don’t think
it was Ruben’s idea to trade Lee. Whatever goes on in those meeting has NEVER been good.
Here is the fairy tale.
1.Halladay signs low because he wants to WIN.
2.They inform Halladay they are trading Lee the same day and he say OK.
Obviously someone is not telling the truth. That is what pizzd
me.
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This just in . . . .
The Phillies are no re-signing Davy Lopes. Lopes believed that he was worth a lot more to the team than just a regular first base coach – and rightfully so.
Although it’s hard to know what Lopes wanted, he is entirely correct. Davy Lopes is the great baserunning coach most likely in the history of the game. This is not hyperbole – it is supported by his team’s stolen base performance. Before Lopes arrived Victorino could barely steal a base. As soon as Lopes got there, Victorino became a force to be reckoned with.
This is a very unfortunate turn of events. Lopes made a huge, tangible difference on this team. They scored a lot more runs due almost entirely to this man.
I think it is a very foolish thing to allow him to leave. I don’t know what he wanted, but it was most likely worth it.
I am not happy about this one bit, especially since the team is already having enough trouble scoring runs and since we appear to be entering a pitchers’ era where being able to scratch out runs is extremely important.
Not good.
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sorry for the typos – you know what I meant. I am not happy about this.
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DITTO DITTO DITTO. The winter brain freeze has started.
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Here’s a name to keep in mind as a possible replacement for Lopes: Bob Dernier. He was hoping to be the first base coach for the Cubs next year with his close friend Ryan Sandburg as manager. Well Ryan didn’t get the job so I assume Bobby D won’t either.
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Tough losing Lopes, but this common place for winning clubs for players and coaches alike leaving for a bigger payday.
I would be intrigued with Sandberg himself as a coach, that player to be named later from years ago. Wouldn’t anticipate Manual leaving anytime soon, but it isn’t too early to start grooming another manager.
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I wonder how much money we are talking about???? People just assume the phillies are always right. they are frugal sometimes and it gets me nuts. This guy turned around the running game for them, a important piece in the running game. not many guys are as respected as lopez in base stealing.
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Don’t know how severe the $$ differences were but it certainly appears to be a mistake by the team to let Lopes go. I’m guessing what he was asking for would have paid him more than guys like the bench coach, Dubee, etc.
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What is the team worth 5oo million? You invest 150 Mil a year in any product or service. Would you want the best guardians of that investment. Again this smacks of something personal.
Charlie is great. He has a nice system. But no one would call him the best manager in baseball. Dubee is a man in the right position. Is he the best NO. In fact H2O covers up most of their faulty relief decision.
Is Lopes the best in the league? Many of us and others think so. Oh to be a fly on the wall with this one.
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Nowheels, I buy conspiracy theories as much as the next guy, but I think it’s not as crazy as it sounds. He probably asked for more money than Rich Dubee and, by the way, they have been a little annoyed with Davy in the past for taking public positions on team issues without consulting with the team or the manager (he said Utley was hurt this year and Amaro smacked him down a bit – so much so that it was memorable) and Davy is a bit of a loner and a grouch. The problem is that Dubee is the number 1 coach on the team (after Charlie of course) and they are not paying others more than him. I think it was a dumb decision not to figure out how to retain Davy, but it’s not some grand conspiracy – they weren’t going to change their coaching salary structure for someone who, while very good, was not their favorite guy. That’s about it.
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If people read the philly.com article , Lopes said he was not looking to be paid like a hitting coach or pitching coach. So, it might be somewhere between what the generally lowest paid coach, 1B coach and those 2 coaches pay level. Maybe the pay thing is covering up something else. Seems like they could get a worthy replacement.
Ibanez had some sort of no-trade clause at some point. Never seen that it was a full no-trade clause which is rare. Somebody, on here, thought it expired previously to the last year, seem to recall something vaguely similar to that when he signed. Generally a no-trade clause will enable the player to designate a list of teams he can not be traded to without their permission following the end of the season. Have seen as few as 5 or as many as 14. Often a player will select the big money teams for exclusion in the hopes they can shake loose some ransom money when they waive the clause.
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I am having trouble with the Dubee comparison, who did dubee ever develop? He has had kendrick for what three years or more and still the kid is lost, couldnt straight out romaro, if paying david would have hurt dubee feeling big deal. and how do people know that dave was a loner and grouch, you have first hand knowledge.?orr did you read some blog that said that
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Like or not Dubee is Charlie’s right hand man and, I believe, the heir apparent to the manager’s job. Nobody on the coaching staff will get paid more than Dubee.
As for Davy being a grouch and loner, it’s just my impression, but public rebukes by the team things he has said lend some credibility to the notion that Davy has, at the very least, annoyed upper management.
I am just trying to explain this. I don’t support the decision and, in fact, think it is really foolish. Davy Lopes = runs scored=victories. How many coaches in baseball can you say that about? Maybe a couple of pitching coaches, but that’s about it. As a baserunning coach Lopes stands head and shoulders above the rest. He is asking to be treated as a special case because, quite clearly, he IS a special case.
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Players that Dubee developed. Uhhh have you ever heard of that Hamels cat? Much easier to discount a guys work when you ignore the star that has blossomed under his watch.
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Madson has also made great progress under Dubee. Dubee’s not a miracle worker by any means, but he appears to be a very solid pitching coach and a very able assistant to Charlie as he runs the club during spring training and is involved in a lot of strategy decisions.
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As the Phillies core has aged, nagging injuries have increased and running has been and likely will be a smaller part of their game. If Lopes is a good teacher, he has already taught them what skills he can. Hopefully, he also imparted these lessons to Brown during his time on the bench. Manuel is not as big into running as Lopes is, anyway. We lack both the contact hitters and the blazing speed guys to be a big base stealing and hit and run team at this point in time. What Lopes taught our guys should keep the success percentage high on steals.
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Rich Dubee’s greatest asset is focusing on the changeup. He loves that pitch, and he wants all his starters to have one. It’s no secret that Oswalt has basically shelved his curveball for the changeup.
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I also remember comments from Halladay this year indicating that Dubee has helped him make some tweaks with his off-speed stuff as well. No pitching coach is going to turn Kyle Kendrick into a star, he doesn’t have enough talent.
Rememer how former Brave pitching coach Leo Mazzone was considered a genius while Maddox/Glavine/Smoltz were anchoring that staff? Well he left for Baltimore and the results were zilch. Point being that a coach needs talent to work with.
Someone made a comment earlier about how some people always just assume the Phillies are always right. Seems there are just as many if not more people who always just assume the Phillies are wrong.
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Great job with the site! I have a couple of questions for you. What players would you add to the 40-man roster this offseason? What players have to be added or be exposed to the Rule-5 Draft? Thanks.
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RULZ
Hamels improved when the aces came in. If you want to credit Dubee that’s your right but name another. (not Madison who should be ready to close and isn’t)
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Leo Mazzone !You’re right. A media creation.
I don’t think those guys paid any attention to him at all other than to say good morning. When Millwood came here he had trouble taking advice because he wasn’t used to it.
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Hamels was the World Series MVP and improved for his first three years. Pretty shortsighted and uninformed to credit his success to Halladay and Oswalt. Of course you specialize in making uninformed comments.
Second, his name is Madson, not Billy Madison. And Madson is ready to close, his flaws have nothing to do with a pitching coach, and everything to do with a shrink. Only a fool would say that Madson isn’t greatly improved.
But you have me dead to rights, if you take away the ace and the lock down reliever, Dubee hasn’t done a hell of a lot when it comes to making superstar pitchers. Likewise Michael Jordan didn’t do much other than score a ton of points and win 6 championships. Removing the two greatest accomplishments from somebodies resume tends to make it look less impressive.
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Nowwheels thats why i didnt answer that question he had nothing to do with Hamels.point is davie lopes is in my opinion more important to this team. especially with a dominic brown coming up.
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His flaws have nothing to do with the pitching coach.But any success does, now that is a short sighted remarks. no way to answer something that bad?How did he help hamels last year. But my question really has to do with lopes rather have him than dubee thats all. if you want to put dubee in the hall of fame then do it.
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And Hamels success has nothing to do with the pitching coach but everyone else’s flaws do? Would appear to be a lot of short sightedness going around…
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Remember two springs ago when Hamel was not right and needed to start out in Florida to get himself together. Instead they brought him north and pitched him in cold rainy exhibition game. How smart was that? THAT my friend was short sighted.
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No, can’t say I remember a meaningless exhibition game two years ago but I’m not sure how staying in FLA was going to help him “get himself together”. Wasn’t is hot enough in Philly by June/July for him to work out the kinks or are you claiming some hidden injury happened in that start that he hid all of the 2009 season?
I have to say my friend that you do have an active imagination…
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As for Dubee, doesn’t he get some of the credit for the Lidge turnaround, the Herndon development, the Madson development, and Romero improvement (he was released after all by Boston) let alone Hamels complete turnaround this year? How about Durbin’s quality work as a reliever? Even Kendrick improved some. Some nice improvement by many.
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3up3kkk You made my point Why was Hamels pitching in a meaningless
exhibition(it was cold,rainy and windy). He wasn’t active for a reason. Head kinks mostly after a long 2008.
Murry let me argue your points please
1.Why did Lidge need a turnaround?
2. What the hell did Herndon?
3. Romero was released by Boston to take a high priced guy off the DL. In his last game for Boston he came in with 2 on and no outs and got out the side cleanly. A historic release
4. Hamels openly said the new stars helped him
5. KK you are kidding right.
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Get it right people, when players improve an aspect of their game, its the result of hard work and other stuff…its only when they suck that we put the onus on the coaches.
Jeez.
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