Fall League Update

A bit of a new format that will hopefully be more user-friendly as far as looking at the prospects this week.

Tim Kennelly–Played in all three games, Monday thru Wednesday going 0-1 on Monday as a pinch hitter, 0-2 Tuesday in Left Field, and 2-3 with a run scored, a double and an RBI on Wednesday. .357/.400/.429 in 14 AB’s with 0 HR and 2 RBI.  3 k’s.

BJ Rosenberg–Pitched in the 5th inning of the game on Monday, throwing a scoreless inning.  He did allow a hit, walked one, and struck out two. Control remains an issue as just 11 of his 22 pitches were strikes.  Has made 4 appearances, 0-0 with a 4.76 ERA.  5.2 IP 8H 3BB 4K.

Chris Kissock–Threw scoreless innings on both Monday and Wednesday and did not allow a hit.  Earned the save (1) in the Mesa win on Wednesday.  4 appearances, 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA, 1 save.  4IP 1H 0BB 3K.

Josh Zeid–Started on Tuesday and earned the win in a rough outing, going 4 innings and allowing 4 runs on 5 hits.  He walked one and struck out 4, throwing 40 of his 64 pitches for strikes. 3 games, 2-0 with a 5.40 ERA, 10.o IP 9H 1BB 9K, .225 opp. avg.

Tyson Brummett–Pitched on Tuesday and allowed 2 runs in an inning of work, the runs coming on a homer by Eduardo Escobar. 5 games, 0-0 with a 6.00 ERA, 9IP 10H 0BB 9K, 2 HR allowed, 2.00 GO/AO; .256 opp. avg.

Justin DeFratus–Pitched a scoreless 8th inning in the Mesa win on Wednesday, striking out the side.  Threw 19 pitches, 11 for strikes while walking one.  3 games, 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA; 3IP 0H 2BB 5K.

Matt Rizzotti–Returned to the Mesa lineup on Wednesday after being out for over a week.  He went 1-2 with an RBI and 2 walks.  .364/.517/.364 in 22 AB’s.  0HR 3 RBI.  7BB 2K.

Notes: Julio Rodriguez is pitching in the Puerto Rican league and he recently made his first start, thowing 5 innings and giving up a lone run on 5 hits.  He walked one and struck out 4.

Yohan Flande threw 4 shutout innings in his first appearance in the Dominican Winter League.

63 thoughts on “Fall League Update

  1. DeFratus could be our big surprise player next year. He’ll probably start in AAA and could be in the majors by May or June. He seems to be blossoming into a star before our eyes. To me, the most difficult issue will be getting the manager and the pitching coach to the point where they want to use the young guys. The Phillies prefer seasoned relief pitchers from what I can tell.

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  2. Now is the time to package him with Vic & another top prospect to LA for Kemp. His stock is way up & Madson can close when Lidge is gone. There’s Schwin, Rosenberg & cast who could fill that set up role.

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  3. Now that Tom is an excellent question. I pulled the stats from the boxscore and that is what his pitch count was…but great point!

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  4. I’ve got the answer to the 8 strike … 3 strikeout session. It’s like in the cartoons where the guy swings twice on the same pitch. It must have been a heck of a change-up.

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  5. The pitch count can’t be correct either. It takes at least thirteen pitches by my math to strike out the side and walk a guy. Sounds like the boxscore goofed. Maybe they missed a batter.

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  6. I just double checked the box and I saw 19-11, which makes more sense. Sounds like someone made the change

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  7. Keith Law said that he really likes Defratus and Kevin Goldstein just posted that he might be our best sleeper candidate.

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  8. I assumed that the 3rd batter simply forfeited the final pitch after watching the first 2 guys go down weakly and he, himself being down 0-2.

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  9. That drops us down to 37 guys on the 40 man (and Moyer of course who’s 99% gone as I doubt we offer him a contract).

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  10. James must be patting himself on the back regarding DeFratus as he has been driving that bandwagon for some time. JdF has become a stud relief prospect – a top 10 guy for me.

    – Jeff

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  11. Maybe it was like the Bugs Bunny Cartoon where they all stood back to back and swung and missed at the same time.

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  12. From the keith law chat today…

    Dan (Atlantic City) Have you seen Justin DeFratus pitch yet? Can he contribute in the Phils’ bullpen in 2011?

    Klaw: Yes, good arm, should help in the next 18 months.

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  13. I understand why they did it but Rosenberg should be resting his arm for next season.
    Ya can’t stop the Riz. He is back hitting. God he would go over big in south philly. They could name food after him. Rizioli and meatballs.yaaa

    How much faith do we have in Charlie be a manager for a team in transition because Charlie the glad hander days are over.

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  14. Yea, DeFratus is the real deal and he won’t be traded because he’s a future closer or set up guy and they’re very valuable nowadays. He’ll likely be called up some time next year to gain some experience and possibly claim the set up role the following year with Madson closing assuming Lidge leaves, which is not a certainty. Schwim should be a major league arm but I doubt he’ll ever close. To me, he looks more like a guy to take the 7th inning. As far as BJ, I’m concerned about his lack of control. It could mean he’s trying to pitch through an injury. Its a fact of lfe that some pitchers can’t stay healthy.

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  15. @nowheels – I think this team still has another year, maybe two before their window closes and they become a transition team, but I agree with you that Manuel probably isn’t the right manager for that type of team.

    And the idea of Madson as a closer is scary – that’s been tried more than a few times, and always with bad results. Between Schwimer, DeFratus and Mathieson, one of them is bound to be the closer. My guess is that at least one makes the club out of Spring Training, but we’ll probably see all three on the Phillies by the end of 2011, with the possibility of one of them closing in 2012 – DeFratus probably.

    – Jeff

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  16. ****And the idea of Madson as a closer is scary – that’s been tried more than a few times, and always with bad results.****

    I think Madson is a better pitcher now than he ever was. He seemed to have learned a lot by struggling there and early in the year. And his slider/cutter is a very good 3rd pitch to keep guys guessing.

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  17. I remember reports from the summer saying that DeFratus now throws mid-to-high 90s…is that really accurate?

    Wow.

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  18. Yes, the reportfrom the FSL all star game was that he was the hardest thrower there and was throwing 95-98 with secondary pitches that have a chance to be good

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  19. do you guys think that tyson brummett will ever make it to the phillies bullpen or is he just in the AFL to fill a spot on the roster.

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  20. If the Phils were willing to carry Herndon all year, I see no reason why DeFratus can’t get a shot right out of Spring Training.

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  21. They HAD to carry Herndon all year as he was a Rule 5 pick. There is no such requirement with DeFratus.

    I expect he’ll get a long look in Spring Training but probably start the year in Lehigh.

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  22. Jeff O
    If Charlie and the organization doesn’t pace these uberplayers better and work in some prospect, that window is going to slam shut more quickly.
    You can’t wait two years to see who is who especially the pitchers.

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  23. Nepp
    Please rate Herndon against the upper end prospect relievers. I am interested in your view.
    Question “do you ever sleep”.

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  24. Don’t think the Phillies view Herndon as a reliever but rather as a starter candidate. Teams rarely take a rule-5 pick with the thinking that they project as a middle reliever.

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  25. Great stuff guys. Phils need to work some young guns into the big league pen. They need to spend elsewhere. Great to hear about DeFratues. Is Schwimmer far off?

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  26. I think there is a good chance to see a lot of young arms next year…Bastardo and Mathieson will get a serious look in Spring training. I then believe you will see Schwimer, DeFratus and possibly Stutes no later then September when rosters expand. The Phils need to find their future closer. I don’t see anyway Lidge gets a new deal and Madson. Well it seems he will just be a very good 8th inning guy.

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  27. Herndon has one effective pitch. He can’t be a starter unless he adds another. Maybe his slider wil stop hanging, or Sutter can teach him the split.

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  28. The Rizzzzz is challenging the .380 mark. Two walks yesterday impress me. I luv a guy under pressure who doesn’t swing at everything.

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  29. Herdon as a starter? where do you see the stuff from him to be a starter? I never saw it but i am just a fan, if he is anything maybe a seventh inning guy at best

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  30. i heard the idea of moving herndon to aaa rotation to work on his secondary pitches. also art do you miss angelle or pettis? also on a major league note watch the phils move utley for a major league ready 2b or 3b slide polanco over if neccesary a lefty set up guy plus two phuture phillies (like how i made the major league comment swing back to prospect talk)

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  31. “if he is anything”
    I believe they want to think they stole a pitcher. Personally I think he is a waste of time with the prospects chasing him.

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  32. I don’t think Herndon is going to be a starter. I think he will move into Chad Durbins role if the phillies don’t sign him.

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  33. On Herndon vs. DeFratus, I dont feel comfortable giving a comparison as I’ve never seen DeFratus pitch. On paper it sounds like DeFratus has better stuff but who knows.

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  34. The “window” for the Phillies won’t be expiring anytime soon. The Phillies make good moves and have talented young players. Besides, their pitching should remain intact for years, and even then, we have some great young pitchers.

    So our hitting only needs to improve. And the proposed changes to out outfield, or getting rid of Howard before his contract is up, and a new SS, etc. They are all positives. The only position I am worried about would be Catcher, since Chooch is so valuable as a hitter, and even more valuable calling games. I wonder how long he can be behind the plate for?

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  35. Hey Doc, did you watch the playoffs. Hamburger has more life. There are serious questions at all eight positions. Without prospects an injury to any of the triad would be crippling and who knows if Blanton shows up in shape. Be a fan but be realistic. There is no money or space for quality FAs and I hate going to the usedtobe/maybe pile

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  36. Utley and Howard are mainstays for this club. Eventually, they will not be batting 3 and 4 in the lineup in later years. Hopefully, the club can bring up viable hitting replacements. It seems that Galvis is major league ready on defense at SS, but this club will have a hole in the lineup and in leadership with the departure of Rollins.

    I would be open to putting Utley batting leadoff or second. His OBP lends itself to that and his power numbers have been down. This would be in 2012 of course.

    It all boils down to the development of D. Brown, Valle-Rupp, Galvis, and 3B prospect TBD, in addition to trade value of Rizzotti and possibly Garcia who do not have a spot.

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  37. Herndon will be sent to the minors this season, unless he truly surprises in ST. He does not have the FB velocity of DeFratus. He was kept as a Rule 5, because he had to be, but with the expectation of going to the minors in 2011.

    Nowheels —
    Please! This team won 97 games and trounced Cinncy in first round of playoffs. Against SF, they were hot and we were cold. That happens. A team rarely goes from 97 wins to can’t contend. We should be just fine in 2011.

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  38. Tough to make this argument, but can’t help but think that the team peaked when Halladay threw the no hitter and some complacency settled in.

    I agree with anonymous (show yourself!) with regard to 2011, a little tweaking of the team and introduction young and hungry players will extend the winning after 2011.

    Why do we care so much about Herndon anyway? Perhaps he is just another entry into the competition for # 5 starter with Kendrick, Worley, and Carpenter. My look into the future shows Kendrick having strong ST again and loss of the # 5 spot by mid-season, with Worley putting time in as middle releaver and starter by mid-season. Too bad Carpenter doesn’t get much respect, but he is a middle releaver or AAAA player at best.

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  39. Anonymous on this post and mailbag is Allentown, who has been having difficulty logging in. I think Carpenter is top 40, not top 30 at this point — biggest problem for me in ranking him higher is that he was significantly less effective in 2010 than in 2009 — both at Allentown.

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  40. Carpenter is barely on the radar at this point. Maybe top 50.

    As far as Herndon, he should have three options at this point. A guy who jumps a level and only allows two home runs in 52 innings definitely has something going for him.

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  41. This is a great site. Thank you for the interesting and informative posts. IMO, the Phils just got outhustled and out-thought against SF. I love Victorino and I love Worth, but they tend to make bonehead plays every now and then and unfortunately in the playoffs there wasn’t much room for error. If the relief pitching had been a bit stronger, I think it would be them kicking Texas’s butt right now. As for next year, as remarkably well as Valdez did, wouldn’t it be nice to have another good fill-in infielder? If Brown replaces Worth, the infield is going to have to be very solid offensively as well as defensively.

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  42. Interesting to see TK get a start in left today for the scouts in the AFL. Might have a shot to make it in MLB as a super sub.

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  43. It is the physical condition of the core players at the end of the year that bothers me. None are likely to have MORE endurance next year.

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  44. The post SF series panic (less so on this site, but in among Phillies fans generally) is beyond silly – a sample size of 6 games is meaningless. That said, losing Werth plus an age profile that is concerning (if less so than one would think simply looking at the 2010 performances of key players) = likelihood that the offense won’t return to pre-2010 levels. But the pitching should make up for that.

    I think that the “physical condition” concern is MOSTLY overblown (i.e., 2010 injuries MOSTLY a matter of bad luck and not aging, and no I don’t buy the “worn down” idea AT ALL – people forget pretty quickly how good the team was down the stretch), but one does have to wonder if Utley’s style of play and position are such that a premature decline may be in the offing. That could be a pretty big deal, especially if it forces a position shift.

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  45. Justin and TK are hot in the desert. One struck out the side again today to make it 8 strikeouts in his last 11 batters faced over his last three, one inning outings and the other pick up two doubles in four at bats playing left field today.

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  46. Rollins had about 50% of his 2009 ABs. Utley had about 140 less and they both looked like zombies when they should of been stronger.

    That doesn’t seem overblown to me. Unless the team is withholding information (first time ever). It’s just time to start a new phase.

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  47. “people forget pretty quickly how good the team was down the stretch)”

    I admit they had a great September but you have to admit the list of pitchers they beat very impressive: Miller, Mejia,Beachy,Detweiller.Marquis, Zimmermann etc
    They did what they had to do but …….

    They still are favorites to win the pennant but where will the EMF in next years postseason.

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  48. Are the Phils finding some potential right handed hitting outfield bats in today’s games? Kennelly started in left in the AFL and went 2 for 4 with two doubles. Down the road a few miles in Los Mochis Mexico, Valle was in left field and came up big in the 4th inning of that game. With a runner on third he caught a fly ball and threw out the tagged up runner at the plate to preserve a 1-0 lead. He then singled in the bottom half of the inning to drive in the second run of the game. Both plays were keys in the Caneros 3-1 win .

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  49. Again! DeFratus struck out the side again. Poor Kissock had to just settle for a ordinary scoreless inning. Kennelly looks terrific. I thought this was doing to be a blah AFL. Never mind.

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  50. DeFratus pitching like he wants to be in Philly soon. He has pitched 4 innings and has 8ks and 2 BBs and has a GO/FO ratio of 3:1. Kissock has pitched 5 scoreless innings in AFL. He will be 26 next yr but could put himself on the radar.

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  51. Interesting that they had Valle in LF he doesn’t project for me to be an OF. I like to see what he is capable of at 3B as his build reminds me a lot of Brandon Inge. So far I like the way he approaches his AB’s he seems to see a lot of pitches and really grinds out an at-bat.

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  52. David Herndon was selected to be a starter. Right now, he goes sinker, slider. He has good velocity on his sinker, and his ball is moving all over the place. I don’t think he can throw straight if he wanted to. He needs to get better command and probably learn another pitch like the changeup. He should start in Lehigh for 2011.

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