Thursday–Mesa were 4-2 victors over Scottsdale without any Phils in their lineup. Two Phillie relievers saw work in relief with both BJ ROsenberg (6th inning) and Chris Kissock (7th) throwing scoreless innings. Each allowed a hit, with Kissock striking out a batter.
Friday–Mesa took it on the chin 6-2 Friday evening, losing to Peo Sagueros. Again, no Phillies in the lineup with just Tyson Brummett seeing action out of the bullpen.Brummett pitched the 3rd and 4th innings and gave up a run on 2 hits in his 2 innings of work. 13 of his 23 pitches were thrown for strikes.
Saturday–Justin DeFratus was the lone Phillie seeing time during Mesa’s 7-2 win over Surprise, pitching a scoreless inning, striking out two.
Notes: Matt Rizzotti has not played since Monday and John Mayberry has not played since the Opening Day of the Fall League. I’m trying to get into contact with the Mesa Media Relations staff to find out the nature of the issues, if any.
–Reliever BJ Rosenberg is 0-0 with a 5.79 ERA in his 3 appearances. Over 4.2 innings, he has given up 3 runs on 7 hits, walking 2 and striking out 2.
—Justin DeFratus has thrown in 2 games without allowing a run or a hit. He has walked one and struck out two.
–SS Freddy Galvis is hitting .143/.172/.143 thus far in 27 AB’s in the Veneuzualan WInter League. He is without an RBI.
–Catcher Sebastian Valle is hitting .400 during the early going in the Mexican WInter League.
Phuture Phillies 
The future at SS and 3rd Base do not look very promising. Rollins will be playing for a contract next year, but staying healthy may become problem. The same can be said for Polanco in terms of health. I wonder if Harold Garcia can become that plug in infielder and eventual starter in 2012. Galvis would be a decent plug in as well, if only he could hit a nominal .250.
Not sure if the big club will wait and see what Mayberry and Francisco will give them in the absence of Werth next year, in addition to a productive jump by Gillies in the minors. But, they may find themselves in need of an outfielder as well.
As some point, the Phillies will need to look at moving Rizzotti and pitching depth to upgrade position players and keep winning within this ‘window’ of the big three.
I really like the relief depth in the minors and am interested to see how quickly they adjust to the majors.
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Last October the pitching (Minus CLee) let us down big time. RAJ addressed that are aggressively (right or wrong). This year it was offense and defense. While the Phils have little to no flexibility in their infield and at catcher, they could try to make some major changes in the outfield, which I believe they may do.
1) if there is a top line RH 3B available – they could move Utley to LF, Polly to 2B, and move Ibanez, likely having to pay a part of the salary. They could then platoon Dom/Ben in right field.
2) I think they need to give some serious thought to getting younger / more athletic, so a deal for Matt Kemp could pose interesting. Kemp in CF, Victorino in RF would be a solid defensive outfield and put a RH power bat in the lineup to replace Werth. They could then try to move Ibanez as mentioned above and have a spot for Dom/Ben. Kemp could also play LF if they prefer the others in RF. A package for Kemp might include Kendrick/Mathieson/Bastardo, Mayberry, and a high ranked pitching prospect from A ball.
3) Could look to swap Victorino for a RH bat if they are unable to move Ibanez. However, losing Shane and Werth would require speed and defense in return, not to mention a RH bat. Obviously that’s asking a lot, with Kemp being one idea but his potential still outweighs his performance and attitude concerns.
4) Move Ibanez and bring back Burrell. This move actually makes the offense slower and less athletic so don’t like this idea.
Having said all that, it is very critical for this team to successfully work in Dom Brown in 2011, Gillies or Gelvis in 2012, and so on in later years. Also need to look at Hamels as a pending FA after 2011. Would like to see them add a few more years to that deal to bridge to May/Colvin/Cosart/Biddle/etc.
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We wouldn’t get Kemp without giving up Domonic Brown or Jon Singleton. Also, Hamels is not a free agent until after 2012. His contract runs through 2011 but he’s under arbitration for another year after that.
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Didn’t know that about Hamels, that’s good news, thought we bought out all his Arb years.
As for Kemp, I’m not so sure of your assessment. The Dodgers value numbers over quality – Garland, Padilla, Lilly, Sherrill, Blake, Theriot, Posednik, etc. They have rarely held out for a top notch guy rather than taking quantity. That is why I believe a package like I mentioned might be possible. I think the market for Kemp has slid due to his stock falling in the Dodger org, which may be a valid concern.
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Perhaps, but even if the Dodgers are eager to trade Kemp they should at least ignite a bidding war. The Braves should be shopping hard for a center fielder this offseason.
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Agreed Alan. I really think they are open to some AAA level guys that can move into MLB roles because they have a pretty dire looking farm system and have not spent at all in the draft in recent years due to the divorce and other issues. Getting three major league ready guys that can take up 3 spots for approx $3M next year plus a top line pitching prospect could be attractive.
Looked at the FA list at 3B and there is not much there that would go with the scenario to move Utley and Polanco to other positions.
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I think it’s very hard to get perspective on the team this soon after such a disappointing end to the season.
Anyway, I don’t think it makes any sense to move Utley (or Rollins for that matter). Utley had a bad year and a bad series, but he’s had many, many great years, is the most motivated and hard-working player imaginable, and is still very valuable at second. I’m not throwing the towel in on him and, in fact, believe that next year might be his career year.
However, the team needs to get younger, deeper in back-up talent, and more athletic. I don’t think anyone else really wants Ibanez so we’re stuck with him. However, I think Francisco will get more playing time along with Brown and (assuming Werth is not re-signed) the team will probably pick up at least two more outfielders. Ultimately, I think they swing a mid-year trade to bring in a real hitter. Bringing in players mid-contract is now their M.O. and it’s a strategy that works well if you have talented minor leaguers to trade and solid revenues – they have both.
Putting his final at-bat aside, you really do have to wonder about the mega contract they gave Howard. I hope he regroups and proves he was worth it, but it’s not looking that way right now.
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****A package for Kemp might include Kendrick/Mathieson/Bastardo, Mayberry, and a high ranked pitching prospect from A ball. ****
Seriously? I mean, you seriously think that is what it would cost? I take it you have no conception whatsoever of player value.
And wrong thread anyway…this is for Fall League discussion.
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You are right, perhaps the thread should have been started elsewhere. But, my initial comment was a response to the lack of improvement by Mayberry, Galvis who cannot seem to hit, and the potential value in Rizzotti.
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NEPP – I think maybe the point was that the Dodgers don’t have that conception. Remember what they traded for Casey Blake…think your comment would be the same to them. Also the same team that gave up on 2/3 of our all star outfield.
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Couldn’t agree more with you on Utley, he actually plays a very good 2B in the regular season in my opinion. My thoughts aren’t reactionary in nature but more about how to a) lessen the long term toll on his body so that he can be an elite offensive force for a longer period of time, and less so b) because it may add some flexibility for what moves the team can make it. However after looking at available 3B FA’s, there isn’t much available out there.
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1. The Kendrick/Mathieson/Bastardo/Mayberry for Matt Kemp is the funniest thing I have read in a LONG time. Whoever wrote that must be a comedy writer for a living.
2. Why move Utley to LF? His value is that he provides tremendous offensive production for a 2B. Move him to LF and he becomes an average to above average (but certainly not elite) offensive LF.
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Kendrick, Mayberry, and Bastardo for Kemp is also the most ridiculous thing I’ve ever heard, that is why the idea includes, as I wrote, “a high ranked pitching prospect from A ball” which means a May/Cosart/Colvin type. How much different is the above package than what we gave up for Cliff Lee? Carrasco, Donald, Marson, and Knapp or Kendrick, Mayberry, Bastardo, and Cosart?
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The difference, and this may be hard for you to comprehend because it is a nuanced concept, is that Carrasco, Donald, Marson, and Knapp, at the time of that trade, were solid to really good prospects with plenty of room left for projection. Carrasco was projected as a middle of the rotation pitcher. Marson as a starting major league catcher. Donald as a possible major league infield starter, or a super-utility type. And Knapp was projected as a potential top of the rotation guy.
Bastardo, Kendrick, Mathieson, and Mayberry are are all AAAA type players at this point, with very little room left for projection. In other words, there really isnt too much left to “dream on” with these guys. We have a pretty good idea what they are at this point, Kendrick is a borderline 5th starter in the majors. Bastardo is a lefty situational reliever and to be honest we still dont know if he can fill that role in the bigs. Mathieson is a borderline major league reliever. Still needs another pitch. Most likely a AAAA shuttle type guy. And Mayberry is a major league backup at best, and I personally think that is a stretch for him.
So thats how they are different…
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Not sure where the nastiness comes from but I’ll let you deal with that issue privately, I’ll stick with a discussion on baseball…
I agree with your assessments of our current group, but you continue to leave out the centerpiece of the deal – the top 5 prospect. Additionally, I think you have to understand that not all teams are in the same spot…
while Kyle Kendrick is being conmpared here against H2O, you can’t change the fact he is young, relatively inexpensive, and gave 180+ innings this year, and has won more games than he’s lost in his career. He’s also achieved his ERA in a hitters park. His upside, you are right, its not more than what you have today. That is attractive to a team that is in a less desirable situation than we are right now.
John Mayberry – would he be able to replace Werth? No. If a team had an opportunity to play a young outfielder who needs a chance, would he be a good option at low risk and some potential upside? Yes. I personally don’t think he is more than a 4th or 5th outfielder on a first division team, maybe a good platoon player or medicore everyday guy if he’s batting 7th for a second tier team.
Mathieson – agree totally.
Bastardo – think you are being way too hard on a lefthander who throws 96 mph, is young, and has a decent changeup and breaking ball. He has not had a chance here simply because RAJ has gone out and filled the pen with vets but I’d be willing to bet a lot of teams like his potential.
Now for the 4 we traded to Cleveland – Knapp you are right on, he was a top tier guy although everyone knew he had some injury issues that year but don’t think that was a big concern.
Carrasco – he was at a real down time and don’t think the Phillies were very high on him at all by then. They had numerous opps to bring him up for spot starts, long relief roles in the short term, and they never gave him a shot like they have others, such as Worley this year as a comparison.
On Donald, he never projected to be a high cieling major league starter, supersub or medicore platoon guy is what everybody suspected. Marson I agree with you on, plus hard position to find young players so he was key.
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Not sure where the nastiness comes from but I’ll let you deal with that issue privately, I’ll stick with a discussion on baseball…
I agree with your assessments of our current group, but you continue to leave out the centerpiece of the deal – the top 5 prospect. Additionally, I think you have to understand that not all teams are in the same spot…
while Kyle Kendrick is being conmpared here against H2O, you can’t change the fact he is young, relatively inexpensive, and gave 180+ innings this year, and has won more games than he’s lost in his career. He’s also achieved his ERA in a hitters park. His upside, you are right, its not more than what you have today. That is attractive to a team that is in a less desirable situation than we are right now.
John Mayberry – would he be able to replace Werth? No. If a team had an opportunity to play a young outfielder who needs a chance, would he be a good option at low risk and some potential upside? Yes. I personally don’t think he is more than a 4th or 5th outfielder on a first division team, maybe a good platoon player or medicore everyday guy if he’s batting 7th for a second tier team.
Mathieson – agree totally.
Bastardo – think you are being way too hard on a lefthander who throws 96 mph, is young, and has a decent changeup and breaking ball. He has not had a chance here simply because RAJ has gone out and filled the pen with vets but I’d be willing to bet a lot of teams like his potential.
Now for the 4 we traded to Cleveland – Knapp you are right on, he was a top tier guy although everyone knew he had some injury issues that year but don’t think that was a big concern.
Carrasco – he was at a real down time and don’t think the Phillies were very high on him at all by then. They had numerous opps to bring him up for spot starts, long relief roles in the short term, and they never gave him a shot like they have others, such as Worley this year as a comparison.
On Donald, he never projected to be a high cieling major league starter, supersub or medicore platoon guy is what everybody suspected. Marson I agree with you on, plus hard position to find young players so he was key.
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hey Phils Phan and Still Pi*sed… are you the same person? gravatarmysterman ???
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your also alan too?
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I think he meant one of Bastardo, Kendrick, and Mathieson. Then Mayberry and one of the top prospects like Trevor May, Brody Colvin, or Jarred Cosart. I still don’t think they would do it but it isn’t that ridiculous.
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BTW, Bastardo does not have a changeup and Kendrick will be approaching arbitration very soon, I think this year.
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Its really funny because all the minor-league scouting reports raved about Bastardo’s supposed great changeup and he’s never thrown one as an MLB pitcher. I’m wondering if he simply abandoned it in favor of his slider (which has gotten better the last 2 years) or if it never existed.
Mayberry has ZERO trade value. He’s a AAA Org guy at this point.
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I actually was at Bastardo’s start in San Diego last year (think it was his MLB debut) and if I remember correctly he threw something like 90% fastballs, but the other 10% were changeups. His change up was highly regarded but is more of a pitch he would throw to righties and as they converted him from starter to lefty specialist, I think that’s when he kind of ditched the change up and went with the slider.
Projection from philly.com is that Kendrick could make approx $2M next year through arbitration this winter.
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Rosenberg is the biggest disappointment so far for me. I expected him to be back healthy and get back to discussion as a potential majors bullpen option.
Not sure what to think of DeFratus. Is he really a dominant closer in the making? I am starting to hope he can fill the Ryan Madson role in 2012.
If Valle does not make the majors it appears he could be a superstar in Mexico!
This upcoming year is the important one for Galvis’ bat. After 2011 he will need to be protected on the 40-man and will finish his age 21 season. He does not need to make the majors, but I think he will bounce out of the Top30 and become just a controllable 25th man who never plays for Charlie if he cannot show some value as a hitter or base stealer.
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DeFratus is certainly a viable high leverage relief prospect. A recent Baseball America report had him throwing 98 mph. The stuff and performance is there, and I think he’s going to see the majors at some point next year.
Speaking of Madson, given a healthy year he’s actually going to be third all time in games pitched for the Phillies. Madson isn’t typically grouped in with the core of the current Phillies’ dynasty but he’s one of the franchise players for this organization.
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couple of blurbs on the Mesa guys from Fangraphs:
“Matt Rizzotti has a build unlike any offensive prospect I’ve ever seen, and his swing isn’t good enough to make up for the bad body”
“Both Ryan Brasier (Angels) and B.J. Rosenberg (Phillies) pitched in the low 90′s, maybe touching 94 mph. Rosenberg was probably a little more impressive, with a big over-the-top delivery and a slider that he spots low and away to righties. He’s been injured for much of his career, and is still a long shot, but even that was noteworthy today”
Bonus Michael Taylor update:
“I wasn’t as impressed with Michael Taylor, the member of the Roy Halladay trade that was subsequently traded to the Oakland A’s. Listed at 6-foot-6, 260 pounds, Taylor’s path to big league success is with a power bat. But this season, he hit just six home runs. His batting practice revealed why: despite great strength in his legs, Taylor doesn’t use them at all. He barely has a weight transfer, and only uses his upper body to produce power. That’s not going to work.”
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/afl-thoughts-mesa-at-phoenix/
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And in the prospects chat: “Bryan Smith: I don’t want this to be rude, but Rizzotti is the worst bodied offensive “prospect” I have ever seen. His lower half is similar to Tommy Hunter, if not bigger. His swing isn’t all that impressive, he’s just real strong. I wouldn’t bother to keep your eye on him.”
Yikes. He needs to get in the gym?
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So with Singelton in left field, James in center, and Castro in right who plays 1st for Clearwater? Does Murphy stay back? Do they jump Murray and/or Duffy to play there?
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Huf will play 1B at C Water. I was told by folks that know that Rizzoti worked out very hard last off season to get his body in shape. It wouldn’t surprise me if its gotten much softer over the course of the season but hopefully he’s learned what he needs to do to be in good enough shape to play well. His body is very similar to our former first baseman and Charlie’s main buddy.
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Those FanGraphs comments were listed under batting practice notes. So they know all this from batting practice. That is to be expected from believing that a convoluted formula can be made from every speck of varied information of a statistical nature, many involving guesswork from nonprofessionals , and molding it into a number that defines how many wins a player is worth, and that should be believed in and acted upon by others. Many players thoughout the history of baseball have had bad builds. If Rizzotti is substandard to MLB superiority it will be from a lack of power relative to a 1B only player, not because of build. And where do people come to believe they are experts on body build, Reading most views on the Internet on the subject, they are far from experts.
Nonsense about Ruf remaining in Clearwater, even moreso with James Murphy, who came in as a 5th year Senior and will not be kept in low minors. Ruf also a College Veteran has done well enough to advance by far. They will either advance to Reading to man 1B/DH with Savery and maybe if Murphy isn’t one of the top 2 there , he’s out. Steven Batts to 1B, likely at Clearwater, maybe Dabbs to work in as 4th OF/DH/ back-up 1B. Also an outside chance for the Catcher Jeff Lanning to play some 1B and filling as a back-up catcher to Sebastien Valle.
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Murray –
That’s what I thought when I saw Rizzotti at Reading this year. His build is very similar to Thome’s – and I don’t think that violates the “don’t compare minor leaguers to Hall of Famers” guideline, it was just a thought about the way he was built. Of course, he did hit an opposite field homer that day, which got my attention.
– Jeff
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So have we heard yet about Rizzotti and Mayberry….must not have been pitching weather today in Arz. Mesa won 18-9. Zeid got the win but roughed up alittle.
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Rizzotti should be back tomorrow, had a hip muscle area pull. Mayberry has a calf strain.
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Good to see Julio Rodriguez pick up a win tonight giving up one run in a 5 inning start in the P.R. Winter League. Earlier in the month he pick up up two wins in starts for P.R. in the Pan Am qualifier tournment. In those three starts he is 3-0 in 16 innings of work with 17 K’s and has given up only two runs. He did give up a couple of runs to Canada in 1.1 innings of work in his only relief appearance in the tournamemnt.
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Justin De Fratus put on quite a show today in the AFL by striking out swinging the leagues leading hitter and then getting a batter with the league’s 7th best average on a called third strike as he struck out the side in the eight to help perserve a one run win for Mesa. The win was fueled in part by catcher Tim Kennelly who went 2 for 3 with an rbi double.
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De Fratus looks like a keeper…real low-profile for a couple years but he’s quietly coming on.
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PP has been touting him for years, gotta love it.
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Yeah…hell of a pick by James on De Fratus.
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