Fall League Update

8. Arizona Fall League

Mesa took an 8-7, eleven inning slugfest against Surprise on Friday with Mets farmhand Eric Niesen picking up the win in relief.  Matt Rizzotti again got the start at 1B for the Solar Sox, hitting cleanup and continued his early season success with another 2-4 outing, including a run scored and an RBI.  RIzzotti also drew a walk. Tyson Brummett after a rocky outing opening day was lights out in the 6th and 7th inning, allowing just a hit, while striking out 2.

On Saturday, Mesa romped over Pao Sagueros 10-1, with a six run fourth inning being the difference maker. Matt Rizzotti was 0-4 with a run scored and a walk in the cleanup spot.  Tim Kennelly saw an at bat as a pinch hitter and singled.  Reading Pitcher Chris Kissock saw his first action of the Fall on the hill and pitched perfect 8th inning.

Notes: No word on why OF John Mayberry left the game early on opening day.  He has not played since.

–1B Matt Rizzotti is hitting .375 (6-16) through the seasons first week.

–Mesa is off on Sunday and resumes their schedule on Monday.

–Other Winter Leaguers: Freddy Galvis is hitting .250 during the early going in Venezuela (16 at bats), while Harold Garcia is hitless in his first 9 plate appearances, including 5 k’s.

37 thoughts on “Fall League Update”

  1. I’d love to see an article someday (not necessarily on this site) explaining why certain guys get sent where in the Fall/Winter. I think it would be very enlightening.

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  2. It is difficult for me to get much out of AFL hitting statistics. So many teams, including the Phillies, send relievers and mediocre starters. All of the good pitching is resting right now.

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  3. Does Rizzotti begin to have some trade value if he has a great AFL after a great AA & AAA performance this year?

    Not talking alot but maybe as a throw-in type guy. Granted is ceiling isn’t all that great but maybe a 2nd division team could take him as a AAAA player.

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  5. I’m anything but a Rizzotti supporter but the pendulum seems to have swung too far in the other direction as well. He already has some trade value in that he could probably get you a veteran bull-pen arm around the trade dead-line or be included as part of a bigger deal (see Matt Spencer/Joe Blanton).

    I don’t think the guy is an every-day player on a good major league team but does have the potential to develop into a solid bench player/PH which makes him a bit more than a throw in, PTBNL type of prospect.

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  6. Ok ok ok ….

    Big debate on Rizzotti…the other day… Question… what kind of line does he need to put up next year at AAA to go from fringe projection to regular projection for a decent MLB team.

    Option A.
    .330/.420/.530?

    Option B
    .300/.400/.530?

    Option C
    .350/.435/.610

    For me personally, 30 doubles .300 average .400 OBP and 20 HR’s does it for me. My biggest reason for not thinking Rizzotti is a starter is because he’s only done it for one year. Give me 2 consecutive years and i’ll sing a different tune.

    And I’m still not sure his first base defense is as bad as advertised… he’s a wait and see approach. Clearly.

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  7. I’d agree with option B, especially because I don’t think the BABIP fairy will be quite as kind to him this year. Maybe it doesn’t make him a starter, but it might make him a possible Gload-type player.

    I’ll also agree with your comment. I think he DHed quite a bit early in the season because a) they saw his future as a pinch hitter and figured DHing was the best training and b) they wanted to put players who were legitimately strong defensive first baseman at the position for the pitchers (Bozied had problems on defense, but it was usually at 3rd).

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  8. I got ahold of an MLE of Matt Rizzotti. (An MLE is an estimate of how a player’s minor league production translates to major league value.) Here’s how Rizzotti’s 2010 shapes up.

    435 ABs
    112 Hs
    26 2Bs
    1 3B
    10 HRs
    51 RBIs
    45 BBs
    117 Ks

    .257 BA
    .391 SLG

    What value would you place on a 24 year old MLB first baseman with those statistics?

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  9. ****sebastian valle is batting .600 with 1hr and a 1.400 slg% in the mexican winter league.****

    Sebastian Valle is the Babe Ruth of the Mexican Winter League.

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  10. Here’s the link to MiLB where they list all the Phils minor leaguers playing fall/winter ball: http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/org.jsp?id=phi

    As an interesting note, Eric Wordekemper is listed as a Phillies farmhand. He’s pitched in the Yankees organization for the past 6 seasons and actually posted decent numbers as a reliever. I wonder if he is a 6 year free agent that we scooped up (can teams sign MiL free agents yet?) If so, I wonder if he has a chance at one of the open bullpen spots for season?

    Or, maybe MiLB made a mistake and he doesn’t belong to the Phils.

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  11. “Here’s how Rizzotti’s 2010 shapes up.”

    OMG – Ed Kranepool II is on the way!!!!

    Seriously, I think Rizzotti’s going to be better than that, but we’ll just have to see.

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  12. Philly Jamaal, I wonder who is doing the arithmetic on that website. Galvis is 4 for 19 but his BA is .250??? His slugging percentage is lower than his BA???? Rizzotti is 3 for 5 and batting .667???? Mazone has given up 6 earned runs in 3.1 innings, but somehow has the same ERA as Rosenberg who has given up 3 runs in 1.2 innings! It feels like the Twilight Zone!

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  13. Alan,
    In response to your question as to the value of a major league 1B, is that it is more than a career minor league 1B or a stud prospect who hits .200 (like Alex Gordon). If Matt has another great year than his MLE, prospect status, and value will obviously increase. If he has an Andy Tracy type of season then his value is only as an AAA injury replacement. If he has a 2011 with Option C numbers than see what contract the Rays might want to part with him.
    In a prior post, I agreed with the Ross Gload comparison as my current prediction (but with less fielding ability). So Matt may get a chance with a lesser team and have to battle higher drafted prospects for playing time and eventually need to stick around as a pinch hitter.

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  14. I’m just playing “Wait and See” on Rizzotti.
    Before 2010 he had no value.
    Even after a very good 2010, there are too many question marks.
    I think the Phils are right to just hold onto his Stock until it really takes off or comes back to earth.

    Right now I don’t think its worth much more than what they could get in any deal by tossing in a few dollars. If he repeats, he could be a key piece in getting a quality high-level SS, 3B, or 2B prospect (2B if Utley moves to 3B when Polanco’s contract is up.)

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  15. Alan I don’t think those numbers are bad for a 24 year old rookie. If those were the prime numbers for a player his value would be very little. I would expect the rookie with those numbers to hit .270-22-80 with 400+ slg % in a few years. That’s a cost effective 1bman for a non-contender an has so has value.

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  16. I’m not sure why everyone seems to want to put utley at 3b after polanco when his defense is still plus and he would be just a league avg 3b or slightly better by then if he is hitting .280-25-90 in 2013. I don’t really know what the lg avg is or how to find out but I’m guessing it’s something like .275-23-83. Those numbers are probably well above league avg for 2b. I’m also going to take a stab at monetary value and maybe someone can help me out with this. As a 3b utleys numbers are worth about 5-7 mil. still considerably more than fellow all star polanco. As a 2nd baseman I think those numbers are worth about 9-11 mil. When utley resigns he will want top teir 2b money and the phillies, if they resign him will not pay that kind of money for that type of production from a 3b man.

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  17. Markymark – you can get that sort of info from the league splits on baseballreference.com. The NL average 2B hit .265/.333/.387 and the average 3B .265/.331/.421 in 2010. Obviously either of those would be a pretty bad year for Utley, especially in the OBP department, though that includes backups and defensive replacements and whoever else.

    The problem I have with moving Utley to 3rd is the worst part of his defense is his arm. Why give him a longer throw? Let him play 2B until he can’t anymore. Jeff Kent played mostly 2B until he was 40 and Utley’s a better athlete and a fitness freak.

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  18. Thanks don. the difference isn’t as drastic as i thought it would be but I imagine the biggest dif. would be the power numbers

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  19. The problem is that the Phillies tried moving Utley to third base several years ago. It was an utter failure.

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  20. ****The problem is that the Phillies tried moving Utley to third base several years ago. It was an utter failure.****

    Exactly. If Utley ever has to change positions, it would be to 1B or maybe LF (where his arm could be hidden) He’s not a 3B, he’ll never be a 3B. He’s a great 2B…just be happy with that.

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  23. philly jamaal,

    I think the Eric Wordekemper thing is a mix up. He is also listed under the Yankees players. I hope he is actually on the phillies though because I have seen him play in double a for the Trenton Thunder for the past few years and he is really good. Definitely major league ready.

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  24. SIFPA- The website is correct. You were reading the OBP for both. Galvis has a .211 BA and SLG%, Valle (not Rizzotti who is listed above him) is 3 for 5 with a .600 BA and .667 OBP on there. Also 1.2 innings is the equivalent of 1 2/3 so if you double that you have 3 1/3 innings or 3.1, and 6 runs in 3.1 innings is thus the same ERA as 3 runs in 1.2.

    Rizzotti is 6 for 16 and listed with a .375 BA which is correct also.

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  25. Nice to see 20 year old Valle pick up his 20th homer of the season (16 regular season, 3 playoffs and now one in winter ball) though he was DHing. Not too many catchers even with combining the leagues they may have played in have hit that many this season.

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  26. Looks like Rizz had a bit of a meltdown yesterday. He made an error in the 9th to allow the opponent to score the tying run. He then was tossed out of the game by the home plate umpire after a swinging strike out. Sometimes it’s good to stand up for yourself. Don’t know if the HP umpire called him out on a check swing or he didn’t like some other call earlier in the at bat. It shows a fiesty side. Then again, he might have hurt the team by getting the heave-ho. I wasn’t there so I can’t make a judgement.

    Valle does like those winter league pitchers.

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  27. “Valle does like those winter league pitchers.”

    My guess is he is seeing a lot of breaking ball. That can’t be bad.

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  28. With Carlos Ruiz developing into one of the most valuable catchers in baseball (I’m sure that will spark another debate, but I’m confident that between his nearly unparalleled game calling, his overall defense, his hitting and his improved ability to get on base, this conclusion is accurate), they now have the luxury of allowing Valle to develop at his own pace. I figure they will intentionally move him one level per year. By the time he gets to the big leagues in about 2013 or 2014, he will have plenty of time to evolve into the “catcher of the future.” It turns out the team wasn’t crazy when they traded Marson and D’Arnaud – they knew what they were doing and they probably kept the right guy. You’ve got to give credit where credit is due.

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  29. ****With Carlos Ruiz developing into one of the most valuable catchers in baseball (I’m sure that will spark another debate****

    Not sure how, he was easily the 3rd best catcher in all of baseball this year with only Mauer and McCann better overall. And his defense is superb.

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  30. Yeah, was it really just over two years ago when we were all imploring the Phillies to replace Ruiz (who was hitting .220) with Marson. A few more years like this one, and he could be making a case for himself as the best catcher in Phillies history.

    And to steer the discussion back to prospects, I agree with Catch 100% – the Phils can develop Valle nice and slow. You figure that Ruiz will be starting to slow down in 3-4 years and they can transition over to Valle at that point.

    – Jeff

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  31. I personally know Eric Wordekemper — no to my knowledge, from our recent discussions is he with the Phils organization. Playing winter ball again, as he did last year. Definitely thinking it is an error. Will follow-up.

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  32. I’m a huge Ruiz fan, but some of us are getting a little carried away. If he keeps it up, he has a shot at maybe being 4 or 5 on the all-time Philies catcher list, not number 1. And he is, afterall, already 31 years old (heck, he’s just a couple months younger than Rollins).

    That said, this year he was one of the better catchers in the league. Even if he regresses a little (he likely will), he should still be well above average. And certainly he is enough of a fixture that they can bring Valle along slowly. I’d say a 2014 eta for Valle is reasonable, if he continues to develop.

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  33. NEPP says:
    October 19, 2010 at 8:46 AM
    ****With Carlos Ruiz developing into one of the most valuable catchers in baseball (I’m sure that will spark another debate****

    Not sure how, he was easily the 3rd best catcher in all of baseball this year with only Mauer and McCann better overall. And his defense is superb.

    Buster Posey says hello.

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  35. Chooch might be different because he moved to catching larter than most but 30+ yr old catchers don’t last long typically. The Phils have no one under 30 in their lineup. You have to assume that things will look radically different in two, maybe three years. Their minor leaguers will be expected to replace several positions. It will either come from players already in the system or after trading some pitching for position players.

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  36. The Ruiz all-time Phils ranking for catcher is interesting. We have not had any Johnyy Benches or Joe Mauers. The catchers in post WWII era who clearly surpass him are Stan Lopata, Bob Boone, and Mike Lieberthal, assuming Chooch has 2 or 3 more years somewhat like this year. If he plays for that length or longer, I think he will have to be in the conversation as ONE of the best. If he maintains both his offense and defense for 5 or 6 more years, you could have a credible argument, given his game calling, defense, OBP, and playoff performances. The latter is a real differentiator for him.

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  37. Don’t forget Darren Daulton. He suffered many injuries but when he was healthy in 1992-93, he was outstanding.

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