Friday Discussion: Sleeper prospects for 2011

Daily Discussion

I wanted to create another open discussion post. In this edition, I’ll give you the chance to talk about your favorite sleeper prospects heading into 2011. Note, Brody Colvin, Jon Singleton and the like are not sleepers. A sleeper prospect is a guy that people don’t talk about a lot, or do not consider in the upper tier of our prospects. Think more obscure, under the radar guys who you think might break out. Here’s your chance to hype up your guys ahead of the Reader Top 30 this winter. Go!

114 thoughts on “Friday Discussion: Sleeper prospects for 2011”

  4. Everything you hear says that Josh Zeid is poised for a huge breakout next year, I hope they start by double-jumping him up to Reading. I also strongly believe that Kelly Dugan will breakout next year after showing flashes this year, and how about a little love for Miguel Alvarez, who had an enormous year this year and never gets a mention.

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  7. I think I’ll go with Pettibone. I liked the report earlier about his work trying to increase his velocity, and he certainly has the build for it at 6′ 5″. He’s only 19 (I think) so it’s fairly reasonable to expect him to keep adding velocity given his size. BB/9 this year of 2.8 and K/9 of 5.8 with solid ground ball tendencies. Obviously, you’d like to see a higher K rate in A- but the lowish BB rate is encouraging and if he adds velocity like I expect, then you’re looking at a legit prospect.

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  8. I’ll tell you who I want it to be: Hudson, Collier and most of all Hewitt. I’d also like Freddy Galvis to be the hottest prospect in Reading, LHV and Philly. Lastly, I’d like money to grow on trees and to find $.25 pitchers of beer every, or even any, night of the week. But alas, wishing don’t make it so.

    I’m a big supporter of Zeid and I think he could get even better next year. Nick Hernandez will come back from his injuries and show us all a thing or two.

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  9. Julian Sampson is actually a serious suggestion of mine. I liked what I saw of him last year, the peripherals are starting to match the talent out of the bullpen.

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  11. Gauntlett Eldmire – he was pretty much forgotten about since he was injured.

    Cameron Rupp is another player I like. I’m assuming he starts out in Lakewood (with Valle at Clearwater). If Rupp starts off raking, it will be interesting to see what the team does with him – I suppose if Valle is doing well too, then both of them could get promoted.

    I like Savery as a breakout candidate, but I think he qualifies in a different way. If nothing else, it will be very interesting to follow him next year

    I’m not so sure that Julio Rodriguez counts as an under-the-radar guy, since he was talked about quite a bit at this site.

    – Jeff

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  12. Schwim big time. With the starters going long there is no reason to spend millions on FAs who sit around and drink merlot.
    Also a faint hope for Cisco to rebound.

    Zeid seems to have the organization stamp of approval so what the hell me too.

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  14. I will be closely following Savery, Collier, and Eldmire. If I had to pick one of those 3 I would go with Savery.

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  15. I agree with Eldmire, Collier, Zeid, and Pettibone all having huge upside. I would add James and Altherr to that list too. Also, from what I’ve read, Pointer, Musser and Walter could move up quickly as well. We really seem to have lots of high upside guys. Hopefully, a few more guys make the jump to the next level of prospect.

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  16. I’ll go with Collier being healthy this year and finally showing us some legit skills. He’ll be a top 10 prospect by year-end!

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  19. I think it collier, the kid has the tools,held down by injury last season, hopefully he is ready to show why he was a high draft choice. has five tool skill must show them now.

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  21. Ervis Manzanillo and Lisalberto Bonilla are two prospects who traveled from DSL and VSL for 1st time and finished @ Williamsport. I know they strugled there but it was there first year in the USA and the both Dominated the GCL. Look for them to possibly be guys. both have been seen throwing in the low to mid 90’s

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  22. Perhaps I am misinterpreting the question. I see Cesar Hernandez and Aaron Altherr being mentioned as sleepers. Those guys are top 20 prospects who I expect to be the stars of Lakewood next year.
    Maybe I picked super sleepers. I don’t expect Hollands or Franco to make many top 30s, but I think they make the biggest jump up lists. Hollands for his strike outs and Franco for showing discipline at a young age.

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  23. I’ll take a flier on Alan Schoenberger, a switch hitter who looks to be solid in the infield and has improved his hitting every year.

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  26. i do think some guys are missing the “sleeper” part…number one draft picks and guys who are talked about constantly probably do not fit…i like collier who i think put himself to sleep by being demoted then being injured…so if hes healthy he may have the type of season that will wake some people up…get it …thats a play on the term sleeper…thanks for reading!

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  27. Of guys not generally accepted to be in the top 15, I can see Shreve, Dugan, Franco, Galvis taking a big step forward.

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  28. I’ll go Collier (it’ll mostly show in the 2nd half of the season), Zeid and what the hell, Mitchell too. Guy has the tools and maybe it does take awhile for raw toolsheds to finally tap into their potential (I also doubt that any other team wants him enough for him to leave the organization). Galvis, I hope, will be an adequate hitter in Reading this year, enough to justify his prospect status, but he’s been on the radar for awhile.

    BTW, does anyone have the breakdown for Pettibone’s K/9 before and after the ASB? I seem to remember his lines getting better in the 2nd half and I wondered if it was due to better stuff or the benevolence of the BABIP fairy.

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  29. Pettibone
    Before ASB: 6.0 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 49 1/3 IP
    After ASB: 5.6 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 82 IP

    Lower batting average against, but Pettibone primarily made a significant cut in his walk ratio. I included innings, pitched, but worth noting he had 11 starts before the break, 12 after.

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  30. 2011 sleepers

    Zeid (big time), Altherr, Cesar Hernandez, Gillies (he’s now a sleeper, in my view), Eldmire, Aumont (at some point, the team will realize that it needs a dominant guy for the back end of the bullpen and will convert him back – the moment they do, he will become a beast), Hyatt (like Zeid, he’ll keep striking people out and impressing), Collier (you figure that at least one of Hewitt, Collier, or Hudson will break out – I’m betting it’s Collier), and Pettibone.

    Every time I do one of these list I become absolutely stunned by the depth and quality of the pitching talent. Vance Worley slipped through to the big leagues with barely a ripple and this kid has the potential to be a very good pitcher. The Kendrick years will soon be over.

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  33. i would like to start off by apologizing for what im about to type…and i really don’t know why it bothers me so much but it does…it could have something to do with my recent rant about whats wrong with america (not done here) but i could see PP posting a topic tomorrow asking for everyones top hispanic players and guys would submit dugan singleton and colvin…i really enjoy this site and reading the comments whether i agree or disagree…i only post a few things that usually go unnoticed…lol…but i wanted to air this because its better than talking to myself while i deliver the mail…this isnt personal but i dont think aumont who was the major piece in the trade of some guy named cliff lee qualifies as a sleeper…also a guy like galvis who if he hits 300 in reading next year would be a major surprise would not qualify as a sleeper…again i really like this site and enjoy reading the comments…this site along with fantasy baseball has really helped me with, my interest in the phillies minor leagues…i actually bought tyson gillies (not a sleeper) and domingo santana (not a sleeper) baseball cards yesterday…lol..again surprise and breakout are different than sleeper…thanks for letting me get that off my chest!

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  34. P Daniel De La Cruz from the DSL. This keeps PP from feeling compelled to ask who is our favorite Hispanic prospect (per Sam Soap). P Adrian Sierra too.

    This guys so Sleepy he should be one of the 7 Dwarfs. 20 year old 6’3″ righty. Sierra is more like Bastardo, only 19 years old, smaller, skinny.

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  35. I think Cameron Rupp will have a big year in his 2nd year away from metal bats. The power is real and he’s a solid defensive catcher.

    He’s my pick for “sleeper”

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  36. @sam soap
    Thanks…for….being….honest…and…giving…your….opinion….it….was….refreshing…to…read…

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  37. jumpin thanks for understanding the purpose of this exercise and making me laugh. (space) i, will have to take your word that those guys are actually in the phillies system and wanda thanks for noticing me. (period) in the future i will try and use less … i was using them for dramatic effect!

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  38. Honestly, I’ve got better things to do with my time than to argue with people on how to define the term sleeper (to me, once a guy loses traction he becomes a sleeper – you disagree). That’s my list -if you don’t like it, that’s fine. You’re entitled to your openion.

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  39. This might be old news…but fyi…

    Phillippe Aumont pitched against the Cuban national team two days ago in the qualifiers for the Pan Am Games. He gave up 1 run on 3 hits and struck out 7 in 5 innings, but the bullpen imploded and Canada lost 4-2.

    Pitched again on Saturday vs. a Chooch-less Panama.

    5.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K
    1 HBP, 1 WP

    Also, Phillies prospect Julio Rodriguez pitched two games in the first round:

    10/1 vs. Aruba: 5.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 K

    10/5 vs. Colombia: 6.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6K

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  40. I am gonna second the Cody Overbeck pick. He had a decent record at Clearwater then struggled in Reading. I also agree with D’Arby “I’m Shaq’s Cousin” Myers. He is still young enough to make a difference.

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  41. barely sleepers:
    Hyatt
    c. hernandez
    shreve
    Dugan
    Altherr
    pettibone
    j. rodriguez
    rizzotti
    real sleepers:
    Inch
    Garner
    N. hernandez
    Naughton
    overbeck
    collier
    m. nunez
    Musser

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  42. How about Dom Brown for my sleeper in 2011!!! ok, just kidding.

    My sleepers for 2011 are Cesar Hernandez, Kelly Dugan, and BJ Rosenberg (finally returns from injury)

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  43. I was a little surprised when Ruben sent Tim Kennelly to the AFL. He must have plans for him in the organization. With the inaugural ABL season starting up next month the Perth Heat will be missing their 4 hole hitter and right fielder for the start of that season. It was mentioned in the press Down Under that TK will be a free agent next season so a good showing before all he scouts in Arizona is a great opportunity for him one reasoned.

    Ruben has some decisions to make on Kennelly. Either put him on the 40 man or he tests the waters as a six year minor league free agent. To me TK would make a good replacement for Dobbs whose contract is up. He could be one of the five bench players on the 25 man roster next year. If Werth walks then Brown can play in right and take Werth’s roster spot. Right field is also Kennelly’s top position and he can give Brown a break along with Francisco from time to time. I have seen TK play all of the corner positions Dobbs has played plus catching. He could easily take over the role of the corner utility guy. Because of his catching skills he would free up Schneider to fill Dobbs other role as the second lefthanded bat off the bench after Gload next season. TK has some pop as Ruben was there to see him line a homer to left at Brighthouse in one of last games of the season with the Threshers. And he certainly can hit as much or more than Dobbs has hit lately.

    So my sleeper is Kennelly as a bench player with the Phils next year with Gload, Francisco, Valdez, and Schneider.

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  45. catch im glad you didnt take my comments personally…lol…seriously i wasnt trying to offend…so i apologize if it did…i was going to switch my sleeper to a former late round draft pick who has had trouble getting on the field the last two months and will probably need a demotion in the offseason to re-establish himself but some just mentioned d. brown!

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  46. To Sam Soap

    In mid December PP must have a contest to invent a ficticious prospect. Not a Sidd Finch kind of guy but someone who would sound obscure but be tempting. Like Tim Kennelly, but not a real boy, a Pinocchio if you would. Has to have an interesting name (I have never seen D’arby Myers so I can not say if he is real, and Shaq’s cousin… BACKSTORY!!!!) and have some interesting stats.
    It would be fun and we could vote on the best guy and they’d win a free subscription to this site. Hah, Hah.
    It would be some innocent fun to have as the winter doldrums drag on.

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  48. I too am going to go with Jonathan Pettibone. I have watched him pitch twice down here in Hagerstown, and came away impressed both times. Because of the likes of Cossart, May, and Colvin, he gets over looked a bit.

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  50. kennelly the guy is in a ball. and you want him to be the lefthand bat off the bench? to me that makes no sense. maybe I am missing something

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  52. I don’t know what a “sleeper” is, really, either, but I nominate Steve Susdorf for the first annual Matt Rizzotti Award, given each year to prospect most likely to put together several really good months at Clearwater and Reading, leading to incessant troll wars in the comments of this and other blogs over why he isn’t being called up to the big club to replace…. ok, let’s say slumping Raul Ibanez.

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  53. To no baseball skills in four years! you obviously have not seen D’Arby Myers play, he has shown great baseball skills, he is real He is an excellent CF who can play all three OF positions. He is the fastest in the org. If you saw Dom Brown play in the OF you would say he can’t play. everyone knows his out fielding is horrible, we need good defense. Defense is also a part of baseball. If you read Brown’s stats in the majors it is not good either. So you must be going off his minor league stats to say he can play. If he keeps playing the way he is playing his stats will make him look horrible. If you blame it on PR or PH, well that is what happend to Myers, he PH or PR in most of his games and he was blocked, most of his time there was always someone he had to move over for and because of his speed he made the other team make erros when he stole a base or when he hit, good for the team but not for his stat. Myers should still be a prospect. I also would like to know why this site shows no love for D’Arby Myers or Derrick Mitchell?

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  55. good outfielder with speed are plentiful,it like slick fielding infielders, the guy hasnt shown he can hit. I am not in the phillies head but him being over looked or someone jumping over him, if he could hit I am sure the phillies would have notice. his speed and defense is the only reason he isnt cut.

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  56. Top 5 Real Sleeper that has a chance to have suprising year in my opinion:
    1) Bryan Morgado – if he solves control issues he could move fast
    2) Guantlett Eldemire – forgotten guy
    3) Eric Pettis – Could move fast as he was dominant
    4) Marlon Mitchell – nows the time
    5) Anthony Hewitt – Will he ever put it all together? one can dream

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  57. How about Heitor Correa? He’s still young at 22, he’s still a power pitcher, and he has a lot of experience. I know his numbers are not good, and I know he was suspended for a year for breaking team rules, but I hope by now he has matured enough and learned enough that in 2011, everything clicks.

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  59. Pitchers who I believe step in up Zeid and Pettibone
    Hitters – Hernandez, Alvarez, and Mitchell I believe will have good years

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  62. Frist of all good outfielders with speed are not plentiful. Myers can hit and you don’t have to be a good hitter to be moved up. A lot of players have been moved up and are not good hitters. Every team needs good speed and defense.

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  63. I’m gonna go with Rupp. I’m convinced he’s got a little something something in him that wasn’t on display in his transition year away from the ping.

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  65. I am not sure how to define ‘sleeper’ either. However when I read the question I first thought of Geancarlo Mendez.
    Not sure if he is considered a prospect but he has played a little bit of 2B but mostly LF for GCL. He showed power in GCL but in Dominican ball was more of a base stealer. He had 5 assists from LF and no errors all season. He will turn 21 in a month, so a bit older but listed at 6’2″ 170lb. If he stays at 2B he could be have some value but not sure he will even get promoted to Lakewood where he would need to be for any real buzz.

    Of the others listed I really like the mention of Shreve. I did forget about him so I that makes him a sleeper to me. I think either he or Pettibone will impress in 2011, though Shreve is 3 years older.

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  66. good defense outfielder are not plentiful, joke of a statement the thing that makes them not make it is hitting. collier is a good outfield gose, myers, all with speed and there are more,that is only three, hudson is a speedy good defense outfielderr
    want more??

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  67. just like galvis he could play right now in the field cant hit, infielers same way. mattair was excellent glove coudnt hit. the difference is hitting.

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  69. Looking for someone not mentioned yet. I’ll go with Jeremy Barnes. Very solid hitter, can hit in 2, 6, or 7 hole. Solid if unspectacular fielder, might handle 2B or 3B fairly well, not embarass you. He has a chance to be a Jason Donald and hit well at higher levels, get called up. Potential as super-utility guy, good bat off bench, extended replacement duty at 2B or 3B. If traded, could play 2B for a lower level team maybe. Another guy he reminds me of is Nick Punto, who I always liked.

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  70. I’m going to go with a previously unmentioned sleeper- Chris Duffy.
    He was a finalist for the Golden Spike Award for the best college player last year and inexplicitly fell to the later rounds of the draft. He won’t make this year’s top 30 but I expect him to be considered for it next year.

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  71. I’ll go with Bryan Morgado. Lefties with mid- to high-nineties heat don’t grow on trees. His K/9 is through the roof and he has a pretty good GB rate. Unfortunately, he walked more than he struck out in his first taste of pro ball, and walks have been his issue for some time. Maybe a full season in pro ball will help him find some semblance of control. Morgado’s mechanics look like they could use some work, and maybe a few tweaks here and there will help him locate better.

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  76. Morgado and Mendez are both good picks. I agree that Garner has ability, but I think it’s going to take a while to tease it out of him and I doubt that will happen in 2011.

    On Overbeck, not only do I not view him as a sleeper (he was a sleeper prior to last year), but I think he’s going to struggle at the upper levels, although I hope I’m wrong about that as I’d love to see Overbeck make the Phils as a slugging third baseman/bench guy.

    I really don’t see Kennelly going anywhere with the Phils, but I think he may resurface with another club in a year or two just as Joe Bisenius did with the Nationals (I remember watching a game this September and, low and behold, Joe Bisenius shows up! I was amazed to see how hard he throws – 93-97 – but he still can’t pitch worth a damn).

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  77. Just wondering was Garner a high draft prospect before the draft, did baseball america have him going high. He didnt seem to come out and really do anything to justify the pick ,dont remember seeing his name maybe I missed it before the draft.

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  78. I’ll go with but one sleeper pick among those unmentioned in this thread. I select Edgar Duran , projected as SS at Lakewood. Bigger than some, switch-hitter , good fielding SS. Project will hit more as time goes on with playing time, might have a better swing than his hometown stablemate Cesar Hernandez and other players previously touted.
    His projected ascension to Lakewood will bump Schoenberger to Clearwater, Hanzawa to Reading, and Galvis to LVIP, because they can’t let guys gum up the lower levels.
    And for the record, it is only a sleeper pick if they’ve never been touted before, alot of the big surprises mentioned above, touted ’em long ago before.

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  79. Michael Stutes and Harold Garcia. They are not on the 40-Man roster and they don’t get as much attention as fellow prospects Rizzotti and Schwimmer, and yet they have quietly made their way towards the top of the Phillies farm system (Stutes to AAA and Garcia to AA) and had success at each level.

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  80. Everyone knows Garcia and everyone expects Garcia to do well next year. He isn’t a sleeper. Garcia will be on the 40 man next year.
    The presence of Edgar Duran will cause the organization to promote Hanzawa and Galvis to the higher levels? Not possible that Duran could be promoted while Hanzawa and Galvis remain at their levels? Shoenberger, Hanzawa, Barnes and Galvis are all future utility infielders at best. Those guys will all be at Clearwater next year and Galvis will be at Reading to make the pitchers look good.

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  81. Saw this comment at Blueclaws blog and didn’t know where to post it but it’s sounds like good news for Cosart: Amaro said right-handers Jesse Biddle and Jared Cosart are throwing well in the FIL. Cosart missed time this season with an elbow injury, but Amaro said he is throwing 98 mph again.
    I guess his elbow is 100% again!

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  82. Overbeck has the type of hitting profile of a player who may struggle to make adjustments against better pitching and I think, for him, the difference between AA and AAA will be significant. And, yes, he has his fielding issues too. But, geez, I hope I’m wrong and he fields well and hits well. I imagine, for the Phillies, they are probably looking at him as a possible Greg Dobbs type as one thing has become clear to me – the Phillies do not want below average fielders to man any position, with the possible exceptions of first base (Howard is now fine) and left fielder (a hitters slot). Overbeck would have to become an outstanding hitter or improve a lot in the field (or both!) for the team to think about putting him there as a starter at any point in the future.

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  84. I don’t think Garcia would be a sleeper – he got a lot of attention this year (long hitting streak, midseason promotion)

    Duran is certainly a good choice, since I knew nothing about him until Marfis said something, so he’ll certainly be interesting to watch

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  86. Catch if by durant you mean mike then no he is still on clearwaters roster he was listed as being injured for the entire season.

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  87. Edgar Duran, NYP IF slated for Lakewood. He hasn’t done much. Can’t see him as any kind of prospect, sleeper or otherwise.

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  93. After the way he’s been forgotten, Carpenter could almost count as a sleeper — one that could spend a fair amount of time with the big Phillies.

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  95. “i think Aaron Altherr is going to blow up next year.”

    An allergic reaction? Suicide bomber? Too much nitroglycerin heart medication?

    Sorry, I couldn’t help myself.

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  96. By the way, I like Altherr too.

    I think the team is very well set in the minors with the exception of middle infield slots. Rollins and Utley cast a long shadow indeed, but they really need to start focusing on a succession plan, even if that plan is drafting or signing 18 year old kids who won’t be ready for 4 or 5 years.

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  98. They have Harold Garcia, Cesar Hernandez and they signed 2 Dominican Shortstops. One, for what could be considered 3rd round money.
    It seems to me that they do have a plan. Instead of taking middle infielders in the draft, they are signing infielders every year from Venezuela and the Dominican(Hernandez, Villar and Franco) for between 100k and 350k and trying to hit on one or two until they need to replace the major leaguers.

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  99. I classify as ‘sleeper’ as a guy who doesn’t make my top 30 list – or at worst, maybe the last couple of slots. Guys that are making top 30 lists in a system as deep as this one really aren’t flying under the radar. High draft picks that have fallen off – fair game so long as they’re under the radar and no longer top 30 level guys.

    I’m going with Francisco Diaz. He really didn’t have a lot of at bats, but he hit fairly well and didn’t strike out much. He also caught 41% of basestealers and had a 991% fielding (small sample size of course). I’ll take a flyer on a young catcher who seems to have decent receiving skills and showed (maybe) an ability to handle the bat.

    On the pitching side, I’m going with Steven Inch. A high draft pick with some projectability who just hasn’t been able to play.

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  100. I think you can define sleepers in two ways. One are the organizational sleepers. Guys who rate probably no higher than high 20s within the system. Second are the overall sleepers. Guys who we rate perhaps even in the top ten, who we anticipate jumping into baseball’s top 100 prospects. Jon Singleton last year for example.

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  101. Is it safe to say any player in the Top 30 list would not be considered a sleeper unless they had a completely horrible season?

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  102. Jake Borup- 2010 draft pick out of ASU. Great pitchers frame and excellent command- moved to starter midseason and played extremely well after college season and instructs. Also look out for Juan Sosa, mid 90s fastball- was closing games for Williamsport down the strech end of the season. Both should “breakout” in 2011.

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  103. Nails, depends on your perspective. If you want to say top 30 prospect will become top 5 prospect, sure he can be a sleeper.

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  105. Alan, true I suppose-good point. I do not really see that as a sleeper as they are already on the radar. I guess the only way to negate that arguement would be to say outside top 30 pick your sleeper…

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  106. I think there are really three kinds of sleepers. The most interesting kind are the ones who will play and excel at AA or above, substantially exceeding our expectations for them. Recent prime examples of this are Carlos Ruiz, who was basically a backup catcher in the low minors until he arrived at Reading, the planned starter stank, he took over, excelled and began an unexpected rise to a well above average starting major league catcher. A less extreme case in Kyle Kendrick, whom not all that much was expected of, but did reasonably well as a #5 starter after an emergency callup from AA. Guys in this category for 2011 include Savery, Galvis, and to a lesser extent Carpenter. If Gosewich suddenly took off with the bat, as Ruiz did, he would be a stellar example.

    The second category is guys with a significant resume, of whom we didn’t expect a lot going into season, but had results that popped, and yet we are still not quite sure what to make of their major league chances. Rizzotti fell into this category last season. Years back at Reading it was Travis Chapman.

    The third category, which everyone is focusing on are guys from the low minors, either coming off injury, guys that have failed initially, late signs who have yet to achieve much. There are really a huge number of guys, from D’Arby Myers, to Shreve, to Collier, Mattair, Hewitt who fall in this category. This seems the least interesting category as one of these guys could have a good year and still be a major question mark.

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  107. For me, personally, until he gets talked about frequently I would consider Cesar Hernandez a sleeper. He’s the guy that doesn’t get discussed much that I always check on. (I check on Santana, too; but he does get talked about.)

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  108. I’m not sure if he is considered a sleeper or even a prospect, but I am saying Brian Bocock. It seemed like he did really good towards the end of the year and I think that he will do great in AAA next year and earn a promotion to the big leagues.

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  113. I agree with alot of you guys, i dont know what you are looking for here .But a player I was impressed with during spring training and later in Lakewood . M. Dabbs he hit .297 at Lakewood , his power needs to increase. Eventhough he played with a hurt wrist . The kid plays all three OF positions. Can also play some 1b. Maybe not a prospect but a hard nosed player with a good knowledge of the game.

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  114. I’d liked Dabbs approach when I saw him on the Crosscutters. He’s old for his league obviously but he was a good ballplayer. Nice org piece if nothing else.

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