Someone requested this, and it will definitely be interesting to look at. I have a big database of data for all 30 teams, which I want to try and put together, but I just haven’t had the time. But I can easily find the scores for Aumont, Gillies and Ramirez. I’ll also give the scores for Drabek, Taylor and D’Arnaud again, which I actually already gave before, but I’ll re-post them just for reference. Check below the fold..
Drabek = 64.10
Taylor = 47.31
D’Arnaud = 17.88
Total scores; 129.29
Aumont = 22.40
Gillies = 58.86
Ramirez = -15.30
Total scores; 65.96
Brett Wallace = 29.78
So, lets go through this slowly. Drabek ranks the highest in the system. Gillies, surprisingly, ranks higher in value than Taylor. There are a few things at play here, notably Gillies age and his ability to get on base. Gillies turned 21 in October, will open up in AA, and will be young for his league. Taylor will be 24 in 2010, and that three year age gap is significant. Taylor is probably close to a finished product in terms of his projection, though he might have a bit more in the tank because of his unique college to pro transformation in his swing. Gillies may or may not develop power, and that will ultimately determine whether he can be Carl Crawford or just a high OB% high stolen base guy. Michael Bourn isn’t the best comp, because Bourn never hit above .300 after A ball, while Gillies hit .341 in A+ this season. In fact, I’m not really a big fan of comps anyway, so for now, Gillies looks like a guy who will draw walks, hit for average and steal bases while playing well above average defense. That’s what he is. I’m not comparing him to anyone. If the power emerges, he looks like an elite prospect. As it is, SONAR likes him more than Michael Taylor.
Aumont, not surprisingly, ranks below Drabek. He struggled with his control and command in 2009, especially in AA. His score is also lower because he was used in relief, which limited his innings, which limits his ultimate upside and “worth” as a prospect. Aumont ended up only throwing 50 innings, and if he’d put up the same peripherals over, say, 125 innings, his score would have been much closer to Drabek’s. I covered some of the issues I have with him as a prospect in the Halladay wrapup. My hope is that the Phillies move him back to the rotation and give him an entire season at AA to sort out his mechanics.
The last piece of the puzzle is D’Arnaud v Ramirez. I also professed my love for Ramirez yesterday in the lengthy wrapup. I love his power frame and his power arm. He still has a bunch of issues to work on, notably his command of his fastball and overhauling/improving his changeup. Ramirez was young for the Cal League at 20 this year, and the indications are that he is going to start in Reading, where he’ll be young for his league again, not turning 21 until August. That actually makes him very young for AA. SONAR accounts for his age, but also sees the ugly 2009 performance and can’t come up with any answer other than him being a below average prospect. I’ve already detailed why it might make sense to throw his 2009 performance out the window. D’Arnaud was our top catching prospect, and a guy who appeared to get stronger as the season progressed. Still, SONAR doesn’t love him, ranking him below Sebastian Valle and others. Based on the returns of both guys since signing, D’Arnaud is the better prospect, but I don’t think the margin is huge, especially when you consider the long developmental road for catchers, and the sheer number of guys who can’t stick at the position long term. That’s not me trying to dress up the new guys and make them seem better than what we gave up, its just me pointing out that prospect projection is far from an exact science, especially at the catching position.
My biggest takeaway after looking at everything for 2 days is that Gillies is a lot better prospect than I gave him credit for. Gillies is kind of what we hope Gose becomes. He’s got a much more advanced approach at the plate, doesn’t have the same contact issues, and if hes not as fast as Gose, its very close. The Phillies could potentially field an outfield of Gose, Brown and Gillies in 4 years. That would probably be one of the fastest outfields in history, which I’m sure the pitchers would appreciate. I’m not happy about losing Drabek, he was clearly out best pitching prospect. The key to the value of this deal is going to be the performance of Aumont. If the Phillies can tweak his mechanics, put him back in the rotation, and give him time to develop I think he could actually be a legitimate middle of the rotation starter. Which is what we traded away in Drabek. We’ll need time.
If you want to continue discussing the trade overall, then do it in the other post. This post should be discussing just these prospects and the SONAR scores. Have at it.
Phuture Phillies 
amaro just said on DNL that they are still unsure what they are going to do with Aumont but they are absolutely considering a move back to the rotation. they said they need to talk to their scouts, the doctors, and the player and see where he fits the best. I really hope they move him back to the rotation as well. I like his talent more than some here. I’ve seen some video on him, and his stuff can be really electric. He just needs to fix that delivery, and work on his location.
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Any truth to the news (rumor?) that Aumont has a degenerative hip injury that prevents him from starting? Link here
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I’ve never seen it confirmed by the team or Aumont himself. If that is the case, then starting might not be an issue. It might be that his mechanics put more strain on his hip, and it might be correctable. My initial lower ranking of him, and he’ll be ranked lower on my top 30 than BA or BP ranks him, is confirmed if he can’t stick in the rotation. Unless he becomes an elite, top 5 closer in the big leagues, I can’t see ranking him over guys who have the potential to be middle of the rotation starters or every day position players.
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Thanks James for posting the SONAR scores – I was wondering where they rank. Gillies is looking like he could be quite a player.
– Jeff
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I think part of what this shows is that SONAR may not sufficiently account for extreme park factors. I would expect that the High Desert factor partially explains both the high rating for Gillies and the low rating for Ramirez.
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Was a big fan of Taylor’s, both personally and professionally. Sucks for us, but Oakland is a great situation for him. He is home, his parents are close by, and he will very likely be the opening day left fielder for the A’s.
Great story with some quotes by a seemingly thrilled Taylor:
http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20091216&content_id=7818022&vkey=news_oak&fext=.jsp&c_id=oak
Happy for him and will continue to root for him.
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Maybe moving Aumont back to the rotation:
http://zozone.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/12/looper_talks_prospects.html
On Aumont. “He signed as a starter. He’s a big 6-foot-7 right-hander that has got a very good arm. We had him up to 97 mph in the (Arizona) Fall League with very good sink. They moved him to the pen. I think they thought that was his quickest way to the Major Leagues. Fastball, slider and he’s now throwing a split. I thought he was a starter all along, but maybe a reliever is where he belongs. But that’s an internal discussion we’ll have.”
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Love this site. Not to redirect the thread, but did the Phils sign Alfaro or not?
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Nice write up…I’m looking forward to watching these guys compete. God I hope they work out…
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Thanks for the hard work this week PP.
This actually makes me feel better. I was low on Gillies but I guess I didn’t consider his age and plate discipline. I was sketchy on him being in a hitter’s league but SONAR adjusts for that.
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SONAR does adjust for park factors then? At the least, Gillies looks like Michael Bourn with better plate discipline and a better arm. That’s a valuable guy to have in the system and allows the Phillies to bring Gose along one level at a time. If Aumont’s health holds up (you can say the same thing about Drabek) then he’s an explosive arm in the system. I liked the deal, we got Roy freakin Halladay. I know everyone’s in love with Clifton Phifer b/c of his post-season performance but the fact is when you face the Phillies in the playoffs this year, you get Halladay in games 1,4,7 and Cole Hamels (who will bounce back) in games 2,6.
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Bourn with better plate discipline is an all-star caliber player.
That would be nice.
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Haven’t seen this posted anywhere, so I’ll post it here:
http://projectprospect.com/article/2009/08/13/tyson-gillies-scouting-report
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There is a park adjustment. But as I outlined in the intro to the whole concept of the SONAR score, park adjustments are very shaky in the minor league level. League adjustment is more important, because different minor leagues play at a different level.
I’ll take the Gillies adjustment on step further. Minorleaguesplits.com has an equivalency calculator that can adjust raw totals from league to league. I plugged in Gillies’ overall batting line, using his home park, and then translated his line into the FSL, into Clearwater as his home park
High Desert Line; .341/.430/.486
Clearwater Line; .292/.373/.418
His .373 OB% would have ranked him 4th in the league among all guys that qualified for the batting title. So his numbers were inflated, definitely, but his line was still a legit representation of his skills.
Taking it one step further, I took his raw numbers in the SONAR system, and I told the system that he played in Clearwater, in the FSL, instead of the CAL and at High Desert. His score changed from 58.86 to 108.83.
The system accounts for his home park and the league itself, and it greatly punished his score. Now, there’s no way of knowing whether he’d have put up that equivalent line at Clearwater, its a theoretical exercise, but his 2009 was legit, I’m fairly confident about that.
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Nice. Benny Looper had this to say about him:On Gillies: “He’s a strong tool, above average run and throw.”
Haha.
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That’s interesting – and encouraging – to hear PP. Got to say that when I first saw his numbers – combined with his age and level – my eyes popped out. Learning about the park and league tempered that enthusiasm; glad that he still grades out so well even with that taken into account.
I read the scouting report linked to above. It’s funny these days we expect power from everyone. If he can really develop into a good defending center fielder who on bases close to .400, I’m not going to get too concerned about lack of power. As we all know, someone who on bases .400 with a slg % of .400 is much more valauble than someone who on bases .350 and slugs .450.
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With all due respect, I don’t expect the team to have a line-up with Gillies, Gose and Brown unless Gose develops a lot of power. The Phils have Santana (the prospect, in my opinion, most likely to deveop into a superstar), Collier, Dugan and James – my guess is one of them develops into a fine corner outfielder. But frankly, I don’t think any of this is going to matter too much – I think they are going to sign Werth to a long-term deal – probably a 4 year extension – so we won’t be looking for another corner outfielder. Just a centerfielder to compliment Brown – and we have those prospects now in Gillies and Gose.
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Micheal bourn last year was an all star caliber player. he just didn’t get recognized for it because he doesn’t hit for power. but the combo of defense and obp made him more valuable than victorino.
(i’m gonna get in trouble for that.)
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jpd: You’re not wrong when talking about last year. UZR didn’t like Victorino’s D last year (-4.2 UZR/150), and it loved Bourn’s (8.7 UZR/150), which made Victorino a 3.4 WAR player and Bourn a 4.2 WAR one. Still, going forward, I’d bank on Shane because he has superior plate discipline, a bit more power, and isn’t relying on a .361 BABIP — plus I think his D will regress to the mean.
Segue… I’m very pleasantly surprised by how Gillies grades out here. He’s certainly got his limitations — his absolute ceiling is a league average center fielder — but I think he’s now the second best prospect in our system behind Brown. Meanwhile, Stark has an article up tonight interviewing John Manuel, and Manuel put him 8th. I’m still scratching my head at that one.
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What is with all of you wanting to turn Aumont into a starter? Maybe he can start to get innings in, but I always feel the Phillies don’t focus enough on farming relief pitchers. Our relief has ALWAYS been a weak spot for us, even when good Lidge was here. We need to develop some backend pitchers, including a good, dominant closer. Aumont sounds like he’s got the stuff to get three outs. Tall, powerful, he could do it. Instead of turning him into someone else, why not go with what he can do? Screw his SONAR score.
I still worry that Savery would be better off hitting than pitching.
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BTW Chapman had a pretty weak session and didn’t face any pitchers. Hopefully that will lower his demand and allow the Phillies to sign him cheaper.
I know I shouldn’t even IMAGINE it, but I think the Phillies need to sign him.
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I remember discussions and articles a few years ago that teams were valuing strong bullpen arms in the farm more than they had in the past. Hopefully this trade is indicative of that being true.
Lets be honest, having Madson, Lidge being lights out in the 8th and 9th inning in 2008 was Werth (sorry) a decent start. How many games did we win in come-from-behind fashion?
If Aumont is only ever to develop 1 + pitch to go along with his fastball…fine…thats all Rivera has, and I would take Rivera on my team over a solid 3 starter any day.
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Huh, interesting. Thanks PP. This adds some perspective.
Just curious, what were the Sonar scores for the prospects we traded for Lee (Knapp, Donald, Carrasco, Marson)?
Thanks
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hey, philly friar,
bourn BB%: 9.4 shane’s B%: 8.8
just sayin’.
Also, i just started reading the good phight. I like your writting on there.
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****What is with all of you wanting to turn Aumont into a starter? Maybe he can start to get innings in, but I always feel the Phillies don’t focus enough on farming relief pitchers. Our relief has ALWAYS been a weak spot for us, even when good Lidge was here. ****
Okay, here goes…You don’t develop relievers. At least you shouldn’t. 99% of all relievers are failed starters. Even a guy like Mo Rivera started off as a starter in the majors. Its stupid to develop a guy from the low minors on as a pure reliever…especially if he can actually be an effective starter. Guys usually become relievers after they are shown to be ineffective as a starter or they fail to develop more than 1 or 2 MLB level pitches.
On Aumont specifically: If he can start, he is vastly more valuable than he would be even as an elite closer. An elite closer will give you a WAR of around 3.0…and we’re talking Mo Rivera at his very best for that type of number. There were 49 starting pitchers in the Majors that had a WAR above that just in 2009. A SP is almost always more valuable than a reliever.
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I read Looper said all the incoming Seattle guys are starting ay Reading…that means to me they’re closer to ready than most may have thought looking at age… Interesting.
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NEPP, I just don’t buy it. I don’t care about WAR, I care about filling holes we need filled. It doesn’t SOUND like Aumont has the stuff to be an effective starter. But it sounds like he can be a very effective closer.
So, why worry about any of that? Let’s develop players in what will lead them to the best success in the majors. A relief pitcher is a failed starter – so they failed for a reason. Let’s not try and turn people into what they aren’t.
Besides, we NEED relief help. And the players they are targeting are old and not long term. If anything, they can help train these guys in our farm systems at spring training.
We’ll have other starters. Better starters. We don’t need to make him one.
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Can you really just add SONAR together to evaluate a trade?
It seems a little ridiculous when the trade would actually have been better number wise if we didn’t get Ramirez.
When I look at the SONAR for the prospects received vs. the ones traded, I actually find myself a little more comfortable with this trade. A CF that can field above average, and get on base with very good plate discipline is a very valuable commodity.
I can see the Power coming later….who ever thought Shane Victorino would have the power he has displayed?
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Not to mention that the Phillies, aside from Polanco’s tenure, never have someone with a high OBP. It’s why we go through such massive losing streaks.
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I’m not sure you can add negative numbers like that to evaluate a trade. At the same time, I’m not sure how else you would do it. I suppose it shows the difference in caliber overall, but something seems fishy. Maybe I’m wrong (not a math major)
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This was a salary dump pure and simple. Cant tell me the angels wouldn’t have had better prospect to give up for lee, plus if we granted them a chance for extension talks would have got more. The agent for lee said he never said he wanted to test free agency in phila, that was in cleveland. This trade reminds me of the schilling trade we trade a a type starter for a bag of donuts, gille proved nothing just has speed play in a hitters league, and were y hit it ot the shortstop y get a hit with his speed. That wont work in higher leagues. aumont is a hit or miss type. not a hanley ramirez type player and the other kid is a project too, y cant tell me y couldnt get a reliver and two good prospects from angles for lee i mean a infielder and pitching plus a veteran reliever now. and the rush to move lee is the puzzing part to me who is left to start marquis , or trade for lowe big contract or take lee who do y thinkg texas angels cubs would want. remember schilling trade a 39 year old 20 game loser, a first basemen who couldnt hit a drunk pitcher and a reliever who was only here half a season for a pennant differnce pitcher who had one and half years left on his contract.
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Another look at how the new prospects stack up:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/top-10-prospects-for-2010-philadelphia-phillies-and-atlanta-braves/
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Thanks, that’s good stuff.
It seems to me that Gillies is a solid prospect and although very different in “form” maybe not that different in ultimate value then Taylor. Also, Aumont’s big knock is that he is a reliever so here’s to hoping they give him a chance to start.
My one concern is the age coefficient that is figured into the formula. In general I think it is essential. However, in this case I wonder if it’s showing an abnormality. It seems possible to me that Drabek’s and Taylor’s advanced age and development, which makes them more valuable in these trades and in real life because they are closer to being able to contribute meaningfully to a MLB team may actually hurt them.
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Steve, you’re missing the point that relievers (and bullpens) tend to sort themselves out when starters don’t succeed. Spending big money on a bullpen usually backfires and turning SP prospects into relievers before they’ve shown they definitely can’t start is also foolhardy in the long-run.
A guy like Chan Ho Park is a great example of this. Did it hurt him to try him as a starter for 6 weeks? He went to the BP and was suddenly a very effective pitcher. It doesnt hurt to try guys as a starter before specializing them in a niche role.
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I’m expecting that the Phils make Aumont a starter again to get him some innings. This is a kid that has only pitched 107 innings over two seasons which just isn’t enough to devlop and improve. Hopefully, we can all soon move past the trade and get into some good stuff like what will the Reading rotation look like now? Who gets moved into the bupplen and who possible gets moved up or down? Remember that before this trade we already had Stutes, Flande, Cisco, Worley, and Naylor penciled in but we just added one and hopefully two starters to that rotation so one or two guys will have to get moved up, over, or down. Any predictions????
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Nepp
A guy like Chan Ho Park is a great example of this.
Your post made me look up Park’s game log as a starter. He was awful at first but in the last two games he gave no runs and two runs both in 6 inning stints. In other words they didn’t pull him untile he started pitching well. Funny how you go back and see things in a different light
Another problem with this trade is Charlie who may pitch Doc’s arm off by june.
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Doc doesn’t throw a lot pitches, which is why has always been able to pitch deep into games.
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****In other words they didn’t pull him untile he started pitching well. Funny how you go back and see things in a different light****
Yeah but check his overall peripherals between starting and relieving. There are huge jumps in his K/9, K/BB ratio and his velocity jumped way up. He was far more effective out of the pen. Yeah, he had a couple of good starts at the end but with him you never knew what he’d do. He might go 6 or he might implode in the 1st. You can’t have that out of a starter.
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I wouldn’t call a line of 5 ER on 5 hits and 4 BB in 1.1 IP, which was his last start, pitching well. This is when they finally gave up on Chan Ho being a starter.
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jpd: Thanks for the compliment. I’m glad to be able to chip in, but obviously this is the Mecca for Phillies prospect information.
Instead of “plate discipline” I should have said “control of the strike zone.” Victorino did walk a tick less than Bourn (8.8% to 9.4%), but he struck out much less (11.5% to 23.1%) and hit for a little more pop (.153 ISO to .099 ISO). I just don’t trust a slap hitter with that much swing-and-miss to continue walking that much going forward.
As for the center fielder of the hour (nice segue, huh?), glad to see that Gillies grades out well on SONAR. I’m seeing him as a guy with the floor of 4th outfielder, and the ceiling of league average center fielder. He’s got work to do as he climbs the ladder, but the fact that he significantly cut his strikeouts down from 2008 (24.0%) to 2009 (16.3%) shows that he can make adjustments — a good sign for his development as a hitter.
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It is not a salary dump, but they probably did not maximize Lee’s value. Blanton is going to make 7.5 this year, so they could have non-tendered him to save the money(he is also a FA at years end). In a pure salary dump, they would have kept Lee and let Blanton go. The problem is they felt they needed to make both trades as to not have a month with Halladay and Lee on the team, only to anger everyone by trading Lee, so they rushed to make a deal. PhuturePhillies and his SONAR score makes me feel better about the deal. The best thing about getting the prospects is should Lidge/Madson struggle, we can trade a Gose/Gillies type for a closer at the trade deadline.
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Dr. Steve Says:
December 17, 2009 at 11:17 AM
“Not to mention that the Phillies, aside from Polanco’s tenure, never have someone with a high OBP. It’s why we go through such massive losing streaks.”
Ever watch Bobby Abreu and Pat Burrell and Chase Utley play?
C’mon.
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“the ceiling of league average center fielder”
Really? I see him as more of a high ceiling/high risk guy. I get why you are saying that – the lack of power – but even if he doesn’t develop any power (and he might), I see his ceiling as a fast, good fielding centerfielder who hits .300 and on bases close to .400. That would make him an above average outfielder, even without power. Since he could develoipe some power, in my book that makes his ceiling pretty high. Not that there is anything close to a guarentee that he will get there.
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Nepp
Good points I just remember Park the starter in a much worse light,so the last two games threw me.
Larry
This time I agree with you. Too bad Gillies can’t play third lol
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“This was a salary dump pure and simple.”
Yeah, right, the Phillies added a little to 2010 payroll and took on $60 million in payroll obligations after 2010. Quite a salary dump.
Look, it’s pretty clear that the deals, taken together, were done with the intent of helping the team while still satying within the financial guidelines of the owners. If all they cared about was money, the Halladay part of the deal never would have happened.
It’s all well and good to argue that the goal on making the team better wasn’t achieved. I’d actually agree, ironically for the opposite reason (I think a $60 million contract for a pitcher is never a good move). But calling it a salary dump makes sense only if you are one of the little children crying about the fact that the Phillies payroll is “only” 140 million dollars. You guys neeed to grow up.
“This time I agree with you. Too bad Gillies can’t play third lol”
Ack, I must be wrong then! No, I’m kidding, I may be an asshole sometimes but I won’t answer a gracious comment with an ungracious comment.
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speaking of outfield prospects, when is angus roeger coming to play in the u.s. he seems like a forgotten man.
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well for 2009 he still was playing in the MLBAAP His stats are posted below.
http://www.baseball.com.au/site/baseball/abf/downloads/MLBAAP%20Results%20and%20Statistics/2009/MLBAAP09%20ALL//teamcume.htm
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I thought this would be interesting too, since some are questioning how the Mariners guys we got would compare to what we traded to Cleveland for Lee.
So here are the SONAR scores for the guys we gave up
Donald -10.05
Marson 0.85
Knapp 31.1
Carrasco 57.40
Carrasco might have suffered from prospect fatigue more than any other Phillies prospect. He’s been around for what felt like forever, and his surface numbers didn’t look all that amazing, but his peripherals in 2009 were good. He got whacked around in the majors when Cleveland called him up, which wasn’t all that surprising. I think he’s still got a bright future, but of course the questions about his mental toughness will persist until he strings together a few solid months in the majors.
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section your argument holds no truth. They allready tender blanton, and couldn’t trade him so it is a salary dump. pure and simple. If you followed the winter meetings you would know they tried to move blanton and had no takers. cause of his arb and stats. they were afraid to be stuck with both contracts so it was a salary dump, by owners who said they are in the red after two world series appearance.
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Thanks PP
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Donald must have really had a brutal year. I guess his being 24 didn’t help either.
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Ever watch Bobby Abreu and Pat Burrell and Chase Utley play?
C’mon.
DUDE. Abreu never hit when you needed him to. Pat Burrell walked on base a lot, but he was also apt to striking out. And Utley, who I think has been injured for the past two years, goes through incredible cold streaks.
The Phillies strike out a LOT.
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mikemike – sorry to disagree with you, but it is not a total salary dump. The owners are claiming to be in the red and for baseball operations, they probably are, but most times they have other little companies set up for things such as parking and that money goes straight to there pockets. They also have a right to a salary, so what if they each got paid 5 million dollars ($35 million with the 7 owners). The one owner sold his cigar business for multiple billions of dollars, they have the money. I am not saying money does not come into play in the decision, or that I would not have rather had Halladay and Lee (and the 2 draft picks when he left at years end). You are discounting that they now have an ace pitcher for 4 more years, instead of one and he is getting paid very well. Lee’s agent misjudged the Phillies and is now trying to spin control the situation. Lee never had the huge payday and wants it…good for him. To say a team with a top 6 payroll in the sport is clearly salary dumping is where I disagree. At the trade deadline, they will end up trading one of them for a closer and take the salary back on anyway. They also just guaranteed Jimmy Rollins salary for 2011. I am sure they want him to come to camp happy and get off to a good start, so they picked up his option, when they could have waited. He has been a good soldier, so they spent the money.
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I am with Steve. Why do we downgrade a guy for being a reliever? Check me if I am wrong, but a closer appears way more often than a starter. I don’t get that.
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Humoring people like mikemike by taking their whining seriously is probably a waste of effort. Anyone who gets outraged that the Phillies have a payroll of “only” 140 million is almost certainly incapable of rational throught.
Any adult knows that getting Halladay was going to require reducing salary elsewhere. It’s just crazy to look at the Lee transaction in isolation. You can argue that the Halladay deal was bad in it’s own right, or you can argue that they should have traded Blanton instead of Lee (at the cost of a weaker farm system). But to throw a temper tantrum because the Phillies refuse to go over $140 million payroll is … well, let’s just say not an adult reaction. And I frankly don’t know or care how much they are making in “profit.”
Only one team in baseball spent more than 140 million in 2009, and we know who that was. Figures aren’t in for 2010 obviously, but I expect that the Phillies will be in the top 4. They were 5th in 2009.
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Steve,
A reliever appears more but has many fewer innings. If we are talking about a closer, those innings may have on average slightly more impact (and hence value), but not nearly enough to make up for the fewer innings.
There are about 40 diferent ways to show that a pitcher has much more value as a starter, if he can handle starting.
That said, obviously if Aumont can be a lights out closer, but can’t be a successful starter, then by all means he is more valuable as a starter. But he can always be converted later if he fails as a starter.
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LarryM: agreed with you on the closer v. starter debate. Wins above replacement is probably the best way to illustrate it numerically: Jonathan Broxton was the top closer in baseball last year with a 2.9 WAR, which put him behind 51 (!) starting pitchers, including guys like Randy Wells and Nick Blackburn.
As far as Gillies goes, I feel fairly comfortable on the ceiling/floor projection. He’d have to flounder at Double-A over the next 2 years (remember, he just turned 21 two months ago) to convince me that he’s not at least a future bench outfielder; on the flip side, he’s going to have to develop some combination of plus-plus defense and either crazy contact skills or vastly improved power for me to think he can be a significantly better than average center fielder. I think of Shane Victorino as a league average center fielder, so I mean it as a compliment for Gillies.
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“significantly better than average center fielder”
Well now perhaps we are quibbling over “significantly.” I agree that without power or plus/plus defense, we’re talking at best slightly above average. But since both are possible (though far from certain), I think saying that his ceiling is an average centerfielder is inaccurate. But I don’t know that we are disageeing over substance.
I will also point out, though, that while an average national league centerfielder last year had on-based .339 and had a .424 slugging percentage (lower than I would have thought; that includes all centerfielders, not just regulars), if Gillies can go (say) .380/.383 (same ops), that is above average, given that ob% is more important than slugging. That doesn’t even take into account base running.
Victorino last year was well above average as a NL centerfielder, btw. Second in OPS (among regulars), somewhat lower in OB% but with the people ahead of him closely bunched.
Really he is a tough guy to evaluate. His numbers really were eye-popping, especially for age & level, but the combination of a hitters’ park, hitters’ league, and high BABIP gives pause.
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LarryM: I think we’re in the same neighborhood here. To clarify though, I think people are thinking of it as a bad thing when I say “league average center fielder.” The Victorino comp is a bit off in that Shane is slightly above average — 3.4 wins above replacement (WAR) last year, 4.1 WAR in 2009. But that’s essentially the kind of player I’m talking about: a guy who, in his peak years, may slip into the top ten at his position, but who will generally post 2 to 3 WAR seasons.
And my biggest concern still lies with Gillies’ bat. A .380 OBP is a lot to ask for from him — to put it in perspective, Utley was the only Phillie to post an OBP above .380 last year. He “only” walked in 10.8% of his PA, and if he fails to develop power, pitchers will challenge him more; additionally, his BABIP will regress as the fielders get better. Very few guys who ISO less than .130 post OBPs in that range, and the ones that do so consistently are unique players (Jeter, Figgins, Ichiro). Actually, another guy whos’ done it 2 years running is Denard Span, and I think we’d be very pleased, if that’s the kind of hitter Gillies becomes.
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– He has thrown a total of 51 innings (59 Ks) as a professional.
– He turns 21 on Jan. 7
– From MLB.com:
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/minorleagues/prospects/y2009/profile.jsp?t=p_top&pid=518418:
“Statistically speaking: Throwing with a very strict pitch count, Aumont was nonethless very impressive through the first two months of his first full season, allowing just six earned runs and 23 hits over his first 36 innings (1.50 ERA). He also struck out 35 while walking 11, holding hitters to a measly .177 batting average.
Scouting report: A sore elbow slowed him down in the second half, but it’s not a big cause for concern. He throws his fastball, which has hard sink and is tough to pick up, up to 95 mph, with room for more. The breaking ball (curve) has a chance to be plus pitch, but his changeup is his third pitch and needs to be improved. He has pretty good command, especially for his age, and uses his size well for mound presence.
Upside potential: Top-of-the-rotation ace.
They said it: “He’s a potential workhorse with well above-average stuff. He has the ability to develop into a top-of-the-rotation type pitcher.” — Pedro Grifol, Mariners Director of Minor League operations
He said it: “Growing up, I was not the best player. There were way better players than me. People kept telling me, ‘You have a chance, you just have to work.’ So I kept working and working.”
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PP, do you factor draft round or signing bonuses into your Sonar Scores – or is this just a performance based metric?
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