The latest rumors are starting to fly, indicating something may happen soon. The regulars here know my stance on discussing the big league club, but prospects will be involved, so feel free to discuss it, but please do it here, not in other posts. Off topic comments in other posts will be deleted by myself, gregg, or PhillyFriar, so please don’t make us do extra work. Thanks.
Update –> Heyman is reporting the deal is agreed to.
Im going to be out for a little while. I’ll have an in depth analysis of this when I get back. But continue the discussion here in my absence.
Phuture Phillies 
i just read somewhere that there is a halladay sighting in philadelphia possibily to take a physical or discuss a contract extension
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Yea Ive read that to, lets hope we can hold onto lee. Would definately be a formidable rotation.
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Say something happens involving Drabek or something. Would we re-tool the top 30? OR just start up again from #1.
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Looks like Michael Taylor is the only Phillies prospect in the deal.
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what i dont get is the possible involvement of cliff lee in the halladay rumors. if thats true, then the prospect package shouldnt be a package at all. 1 prospect that is good or elite, but anything else is ridiculous.
trading lee means an unbelievable amount of confidence in Hamels and JA happ. i thought hamels fastball was consistently up this year and that might have informed some of his struggles, but the 2 pitch pitcher thing may have caught up with him. i truly dont know. and who knows if JA can replicate his success.
so basically we’d be trading Lee, workhorse is his early 30s that has a year left on his contract for 8 mill and will need to be resigned after that…for an early 30s workhorse with a year left on his contract for almost 16 mill and will to be resigned after that.
that makes no sense to me. is Halladay REALLY that much better? he has more of a name, thats it. he hasnt proven himself in the playoffs, and that was the only knock on Lee. and he pitched very well in the playoffs. citing stats before Lee made adjustments and came back from being sent would be like citing stats from when Randy Johnson walked over 100 guys a year. its irrelavent. it was a part of his development into the pitcher he is today. and the pitcher that Lee is today has a bedrock and is very comparable to Halladay.
so would we be that much better? i dont think so. especially if we have to include a great prospect like Brown, Taylor, or Drabek. i havent even mentioned the fact that Halladay is going to command so much more money because of the perception of him in the league. Lee is worth almost a similar amount, but will not be able to command as much just because his name isnt as sexy to people. ive heard halladay might take a discount for winner, but i dont believe the future contracts of both players will be similar, with Roy’s totaling more when they should be similar.
what i’d like to see is us keeping Lee with Halladay. for that to get done, id imagine the Jays would demand just like they did in the regular season…citing a prospect package that would take a lot of the players i previously mentioned. that would suck if that happens cuz we shoulda just did that during the season and had a better shot at going back to back.
i dont know whats going to happen, but i am fearful. i know were awesome and will be the best team in the national league regardless, but i dont know if a deal like this (including Lee in it) makes us the best of both leagues.
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Sounds like Lee and Taylor are moving in the trade for Halladay. Hard to believe all the Phillies get out of losing those two is Halladay and cash. I’d at least like to get back either a prospect on the left side of the infield, or a competent reliever in the deal.
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to me this means the phils think lee was unsignable. If that is the case trading lee now makes sense. I am VERY, VERY sad to see michael taylor go.
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this is very interesting if we are adding halladay to lee and and hamels. but i would be against trading lee and a prospect like taylor for halladay. that doesn’t make sense to me. but i would be ok with trading happ and taylor for halladay. i really don’t see how you can trade lee after that post season he had for us. and he is so cheap this year too. unless he told them that he won’t re-sign but i would be surprised by that too. and even so, why not let it ride another year. i love the idea of trading blanton for prospects and packaging happ and taylor for halladay. i just don’t understand packaging Lee.
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If we give up Lee and Taylor for Halladay – I am not happy at all!
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Great trade for Halladay–nobody on this site is ever happy if the trade involves a prospect read back to the tears over the Eyre trade–for who, for what–nobody remembers anymore–if the trade was Halladay for Valle, people would be saying the Phils got ripped off
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If we are trading Lee (low contract) and Taylor to acquire Halladay, it is going to make me sick. To me, Lee/Halladay an even deal. Halladay may be a bit better, but he is also more expensive and he does not have the post-season track record that Lee has (could he have been any better last year?). I am very sad to be getting rid of so much value. I like Ruben and everything, but there’s no denying the enormous exodus of talent from our farm system. This stinks.
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I just want to hear something definite already. I have 4095 windows open that I’m constantly refreshing.
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@PPFan: We weren’t getting Roy Halladay for Happ and Taylor. It just wasn’t happening. And if we waited until the end of the season and Lee got a monster offer somewhere else and walked, where would that have left us? With absolutely nothing at the top of the rotation. We just got the best pitcher in baseball and this is contingent upon us having him for most likely four years. Be happy. Please? Have we as Phillies fans become so jaded that we can’t even get excited about that?
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For the record I haven’t seen anywhere where Taylor was included, but I haven’t been able to get any good details.
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If Taylor is included, the deal, really, is:
Roy Hallday and Cliff Lee for a few months for:
Jason Donald
Carlos Carrasco
Jason Knapp
Lou Marson
Michael Taylor
Think about it this way and you’ll pause for a minute before deciding whether this was a good idea or not. You know, maybe the Yankees have it right. They wait and overpay, but they don’t lose their entire farm system when they do that – they just lose a draft pick.
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@Catch 22: That’s still a good deal. I’d do it for Halladay and a half season of Lee in a heartbeat. You’d be crazy if you wouldn’t. Also, don’t compare us to the Yankees. Neither we, nor anyone else, have the money to play that way.
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@jak440 – look, i am not upset about getting halladay. far from it. just it seems like we are giving up a top 25/40 prospect (Taylor) too cheaply. i agree we aren’t getting halladay for happ and taylor, but maybe if we trade blanton to seattle and get a good prospect we could package him for happ and taylor. that is what i am hoping for. it would be so awesome to have halladay, lee and hamels as our 1-2-3. but maybe i am dreaming…
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@PPFan: I think you’re dreaming, but that’s okay. It’s fun to dream. In the end, I don’t think Blanton was all that valuable. I’m sure Rube would have loved to have had Lee and Halladay, but it wasn’t in the cards. Maybe we’ll resign him after next season 🙂
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The only way this deal makes any sense is if they felt that Lee was harder to sign long term than Halladay. Any other reason and I will be upset. Plus we lose Taylor, who I think is really solid and the guy to replace Werth and/or Ibanez when the time comes. And how about moving Lee, a guy who was dominant for you in the playoffs? Ouch. Perhaps the Phils are getting another piece back in the deal? A corner infield prospect or something??
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i am withholding my fire until we see the final deal terms, but if it is what is rumored, then i do think that we are selling low on Taylor. this guy is a top 25 prospect and has unbelievable potential and minor league productivity.
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How do you consider Lee to be a low contract when there is no chance in the world that he will resign?
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I’m still hoping that Taylor isn’t in the deal. Everyone is totally guessing at this point so we’ll have to wait to see. Toronto has zero leverage in that Halladay will only go to the Phillies and I’m sure Amaro used that to his advantage. It became clear that Lee wouldn’t resign now and I think its a great move to get Halladay and get him resigned to an extension now instead of losing Lee a year from now. Take a look at Doc’s stats before you pan the deal because his numbers, in the AL, are amazing and better than Lee’s, except for the one year, and he’s only one year older and is a horse too. If the Phils somehow kept Taylor out of the deal, that would be unbelievable.
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Yeah the Yankees do it right if you have 300 million dollars to spend each year. Unfortunately that’s not a reality for anyone. The team who does it right is the Red Sox.
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By the way, in terms of Lee, did you ever hear the term “sell high”? He’ll never have more value that right now.
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Where was it reported that Taylor is moving in the deal? I’m not being snarky, I just haven’t read that anywhere except here.
If that is the case that Taylor is going along with Lee, it certainly does make the deal a little less palatable, but I’d need to see the contract terms before passing judgement. It really seems Lee was unsignable long-term (as many of you have surmised), and that the Phils may get a bit of a deal in the signing, considering RH’s desire to play for Philly. If so, I can stomach losing Taylor (who really has no spot in the Phils’ outfield for the next few years anyway).
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Can anyone provide a source for the Taylor inclusion?
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i got it from PP’s post above. haven’t seen it anywhere else
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So the Phils trade Lee + prospect(s) for Halladay + prospect(s) from Seattle? And ink Halladay to an extension? As long as the extension isn’t crazy, then it sounds good to me, but I would hate to see someone like Taylor go…
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I saw on CNNSI that the phillies were trading Lee to the Mariners for prospects to the Phillies and the Phillies were trading prospects to Toronto. Could this be Phillies get Halladay and sign him to an extension then ship Lee to Seattle for some good prospects similiar to the trade we made for Lee then we turn around and use some to trade for Halladay? If so that is a great trade for everyone.
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Morosi tweets that Taylor is part of the deal.
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http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/12/roy-halladay-rumors-monday-1.html
Taylor and Aumont. Maybe that means we keep some prospects we get from Seattle.
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Heard that Brown and Happ are part of the deal.
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No one knows what is going on right now.
Lets wait till details are announced before we burn the site/Philadelphia down
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It stinks
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Phillies Nation on Facebook is reporting that Dom Brown and Phil Aumont are the only 2 prospects 100% in the deal. They also not that Halladay signed a 3 yr deal.
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I’m going to pretend I’m not from Philadelphia for a few hours and try to withhold my burning anger at the fact that my favorite team just acquired the most dominant pitcher in baseball. 🙂
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I like thias trade. Lee it appears wanted to test the free agent market. Halladay really wanted to come to Philly, w his house near Clearwater and wanting to be a winner on the east coast. He will most likely take a significant pay cut on the extention before the trade is finalized. Halladay for 5+ years or Lee for 1 and michael taylor (where we have 3 all star outfielders already, plus multiple elite outfield prospects). Halladay has been in the top 5 for cy youngs the last 5 years, on a bad team in the toughest offensive division in baseball compared to playing in the AL Central. I love the trade long term and short term as long as it is just taylor and lee for halladay
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Phillies Nation on Facebook is reporting Dom Brown and Phil Aumont are the only 2 prospects 100% in the deal. They also note Hallady agreed on a 3yr ext..
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We’ll miss Michael Taylor…but Roy Halladay is worth it.
Besides part of the deal is signing Halladay long term so the “couple months” comment is innacurate.
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SI reports that the Phils will trade prospects to Toronto and receive prospects from the Mariners but nothing about who.
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Well if we get Halliday for 3 years at a good price – I might be OK with this. Especially if we get a servicable prospect/reliever as well.
I still think it’s Taylor – Not Brown in the deal. Unless there’s another deal in the works to trade Ibanez or Werth – which ain’t happening!
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If everything is true about Halladay and Lee talks then this is a GREAT deal. Lee is said to be seeking Market value and wont sign for a discount. Halladay has said he will sign under value to be a Phillie. So we are basically giving up a prospect to get an ACE at a discount rate for after the 2010 year.
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Truly the most bizarre and convoluted situation I can ever recall with the Phillies. Let’s face it – nobody has the first clue about what is going on except it looks fairly likely that Halladay will be a Phillie. Let’s wait and hold our breath.
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LOL not like it means anything but Phillies Nation was the first to post about the trade being OFFICIAL that was before Heyman. They also use the word OFFICIAL on Brown so who knows.
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Maybe I missed a news article along the way, but is it really true that Lee doesn’t want to play here long term? Is it really just a $’s and cents thing, or does he legitimately not want to be in Philly long term for other reasons?
If it’s just about the money, I can’t see him commanding more than Halladay in the open market. Maybe Halladay has already agreed to a discount in exchange for playing in Philly, but I guess the details will come out soon enough.
If he doesn’t want to play in Philly, then F-him. Honestly, he probably experienced one of the best baseball experiences in his life (from both a fan appreciation standpoint and a winning stand point). If he’d rather pitch in Seattle for a team that has very little chance to contend, then that really says a lot about the guy, and I’m glad he’s going.
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” So we are basically giving up a prospect to get an ACE at a discount rate for after the 2010 year.”
Not quite true- we’re giving up a very good prospect and an ace to get an ace. Even if Halliday is slightly better than Lee its not worth Michael Taylor. It sounds like a money saving move as much as anything for the Phils.
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Hearing, Phillipe Aumont Carlos Triunfel, Adam Moore, Dom brown. Plus $10 mil
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Just heard is Dom Brown, not Michael Taylor in the Halladay deal.
Can’t say I like that.
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Ugh that made it worse.
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Phillies Nation is down
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“Halladay is in Philadelphia talking to the Phillies about an extension, ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark reports. Halladay has told friends he’d take less than market money to sign with the Phillies — something in the neighborhood of five years and $100 million.
Halladay was entering the final year of his Toronto contract.
Lee has told the Phillies he would like to stay but wants market.”
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4742072
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Well Brown will be their next Alex Rios, he will never hit 20 HR’s there if they mess with his swing.
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Again, nothing official. And Lee might not even be involved. Lots of people are throwing around lots of names. Lets wait and see what happens. This is obviously a complex deal with a lot of moving parts
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Just heard it was Taylor … and that we might receive scott downs in the trade as well to help bolster bp
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AP just said Happ, Brown, BLanton to seattle in place of Lee.
We’d have no 4th starter but a great top 3 at least.
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Well that’s interesting.
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@NEPP …. i would actually be extremely excited with that deal. I feel we could plug in kendrick as our fifth starter and look to kevin corriea from the padres as number 4. Plus we have moyer to fall back on and maybe nab pedro.
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This is crazier than deadline day and the Lee trade.
I LOVE IT!
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NEPP … where did you find that report?
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If this trade is true, this team is the 1970’s Orioles again. 110 wins next year and i’m a braves fan.
Halladay-20 W
Lee-18
Hamels-16
Moyer-14
Drabek-12
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http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091214/ap_on_sp_ba_ne/bbo_phillies_blue_jays_halladay;_ylt=Ag0wgZNskSgQ2cC5tGZO5toLMxIF;_ylu=X3oDMTMwOHJxYmxxBGFzc2V0A2FwLzIwMDkxMjE0L2Jib19waGlsbGllc19ibHVlX2pheXNfaGFsbGFkYXkEY3BvcwMxBHBvcwMxBHNlYwN5bl90b3Bfc3RvcnkEc2xrA3JveWhhbGxhZGF5aQ–
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Sorry for the long link – that’s the one with the Phils NOT giving up Lee.
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Catch: The trade is not exactly as you put it…
When we traded for Lee the trade was
Jason Donald
Carlos Carrasco
Jason Knapp
Lou Marson
for 2 months at $2MM or so and one year at $9MM from Lee and a #1 draft pick from the club that signs him and a sandwich pick. From what I read, he never had any intention of resigning unless he was overwhelmed. Not to mention he is a LHP (you have 2 decent ones)
Since the year is over…
So now you’re trading Lee for one year at $9MM and a #1 draft pick from the club that signs him and a sandwich pick for Seattle prospect(s); You then turn such prospect(s) + Michael Taylor into several years of Halladay at $16-20MM or so. If the media is portraying it right, the deal is contingent upon Doc signing an extension, and they indicated a hope that there is a winner’s discount involved. Oh yeah, and you now how a balanced starting rotation in 2 RHP and 2 LHP.
So do not mistake the fact that Lee has a very different value right now than he did at the trade deadline. Same with Halladay – especially for the Phillies. The value comes in the willingness to sign an extension.
On a side note, there seems to be a suggestion of the Phillies keeping some of the Mariner’s prospects. Names have come up such as Phillippe Aumont, Michael Saunders and Brandon Morrow. Do not know much about them, but the scenario is a twist.
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http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/12/roy-halladay-rumors-monday-1.html
This is a good website to follow as things develop.
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Thanks Matt…I saw the same link on Beerleaguer…add in that Lee’s agent hasn’t heard anything whatsoever and it gets interesting.
Supposedly Brandon Morrow is also in play as well as OF Michael Saunders.
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So many conflicting reports…950 is saying now it’s Aumont, Taylor, and D’Arnaud to Toronto, Lee to Seattle, and Halladay and 2 unamed Seattle prospects to the Phils.
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The Halladay for Lee part is a great trade! Overall, though, it depends on who else we give up. Lee isn’t going to re-sign, and Halladay wants to be a Phillie, willing to sign below market value. Roy has a much longer history of success than Cliff and is more highly regarded among MLB players. What more can you ask for? Best Pitcher in the Game. Period.
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The talk of the near signing of the Colombian catcher fits in with one of our young catchers being in the deal.
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echockeyman- Correia has already resigned with the Padres
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Mike — don’t see where that rotation comes from
Drabek in the minors for at least first half of next year, and I’m doubtful Moyer is able to pitch.
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Not D’Arnaud……………………………..Just being the first to comment
Great trade for Phils!!
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Not be be negative but d’Arnaud, Taylor and Lee for Halladay isn’t the greatest deal…depending on who else we’d get back…better be good prospects, not crappy C level throw-ins.
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2010 rotation
Halladay
Hamels
Blanton
Happ
Moyer
Drabek in June
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This deal is so much more complicated in terms of the long term ramifications than most of the comments here indicate. I’ll touch on all of that once the names are finalized.
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As more details come out, this is getting worse and worse.
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Toronto is reporting Aumont and Taylor–nothing about D’Arnaud
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PP, its expected that there will be some wild rumors and emotional responses.
So far, its gone down hill as the names come out.
Lee AND 2 top prospects for Halladay isn’t that great a deal.
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Agreed, Nepp. Halliday isn’t that much better than Lee, and i know money factors in as well, but from a player standpoint thats too much to give up if we’re not getting at least one good prospect back.
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Stark was just on 950 and said D’Arnaud was included. He also said the deal’s not completed so obviously all the names are still subject to change.
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From Rube’s track record, I expect it to end up being an even deal…this latest rumor doesn’t pass the smell test.
We get Halladay, Lee is gone.
The rest is up in the air right now.
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I imagine the Amaro will trade from strength–our minor league outfield prospects–to replenish our weakness, infield prospects. Not such a crazy idea.
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in retrospect, probably should have made the trade for Doc at the trade deadline–would have cost less
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I wonder if the ownership group is starting to get involved in the money angle again.
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But its not that easy.
The Phillies were proactive, and maybe paid “too much”, because there was a very real chance that if they didn’t grab Halladay now and extend him, they’d have neither Halladay or Lee after 2010. There was like a 2% chance of Lee re-signing. He wants to test the open market, and the open market is going to be 5 or 6 years for 100-120 million. And Halladay IS a better pitcher than Lee based on just about any metric you want to use. Halladay is a workhorse with a ridiculously good cutter who rolls up groundball after groundball. They are different pitchers, but Halladay’s track record far outpaces that of Lee.
This deal is just as much about 2010 as it is 2011 and 2012. Plus, the Phillies are going to get a prospect, maybe 2, back in the deal. And most of what Ive read recently has them not trading either Drabek or Brown.
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Halladay is a future HoFer…Lee is a very nice pitcher. Even in his best season Lee couldn’t match Halladay’s WAR.
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Either way – I hope the deal is finalized some time tonight. If not, my bosses aren’t going to be happy with my productivity tomorrow.
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Lee is better than ‘a very nice pitcher’. That is beyond silly. Lee is not ‘a very nice pitcher’, he is a legit ace.
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When both players are retired, there is little doubt that Halliday will have had the better career. But as of right now, their abilities are very similar. Lee is coming off of 2 great seasons, one in which he won a Cy Young and last year when he parlayed a great regular season into an all-time great postseason. No matter what Halliday does, he can’t do much better than that.
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http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4742072
to sum up the article, d’arnaud is apparently included in the deal. the jays want brown but the phillies are only willing to include taylor. halladay’s extension includes a vesting option for additional year or two in addition to the three years. the phillies will receive two prospects from the mariners as a result. has anybody seen any report on who these unnamed prospects are?
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Typical sky is falling stuff. Thank you phuturephillies for pointing out that Lee and Halladay ARE NOT EQUIVALENT. Not even close. Not by any metric you want to go by. I know we all loved Cliff Lee, but Cliff Lee is an All Star. Roy Halladay is a Hall of Famer. If this goes through he will instantly become the fourth best pitcher to ever pitch for the Phillies.
All of you are complaining now would have screamed bloody murder if Lee walked after the season was over and we were stuck with nothing. I dont’ know what you would have had Amaro do in this situation.
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Yuck if this is Lee, D’Arnaud, and Taylor for Halladay then I dont like it. I understand getting 1 or 2 prospects back but not at the quality of Taylor and D’Arnaud. I hope this thing doesnt end up looking BRUTAL just to get an 3 more years with a couple vesting options.
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****Lee is better than ‘a very nice pitcher’. That is beyond silly. Lee is not ‘a very nice pitcher’, he is a legit ace****
Really? He’s had 1 Great year, 1 very good one and was in AAA 3 years ago.
Halladay is an Ace…Lee has had a couple pretty good years.
ERA+ for 08/09 (Lee’s peak so far)
Lee – 147
Halladay – 154
Career ERA+
Lee – 109
Halladay – 133
Do you see where I’m coming from now?
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I am hearing Juan Ramirez and Tyson Gillies to the Phillies from Seattle…FWIW
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Hey Phillies fans, don’t worry. You guys are getting Roy Halladay, which means you come out ahead no matter what. I’ve watched him live and on TV for years. He is a very special player. He is always so good, so consistent. You will be extremely happy.
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people seem to forget that lee did struggle towards the end of the season despite an excellent postseason. he finished with a 3.4 era with the phillies while halladay was able to maintain a 2.79 era during the entire year. halladay’s style of pitching also plays better in the bank because he is more of a strikeout or groundball pitcher while lee tries to paint the outside corner of the strikezone and is more prone to flyballs
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You don’t get guys based on the career they’ve had, you do so based on how good they are now and are expected to be in the future. You neglect to mention Lee was in AAA because of injury and is fully healthy now. So, last two years he has been a legit ace. What he or Halladay did 3, 4, 5, more years ago is merely of interest to baseball historians, not to GMs.
A ‘nice pitcher’ is Blanton.
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WTF, I hate this suspense!!! Lee likely wouldn’t have resigned for anything less then a 5-6 yr deal at 130 million… Phillies can’t afford that… It’s not the yearly amount, but the length… If Halliday signs for 3 years 60 million this would be a worthwhile trade. The bottom line… A 36 year old pitcher isn’t worth 20 mil a season… If we loose Taylor/brown to keep an ace for the prime of this teams time (next 3 years) it’s worth it. The phillies aren’t going to have the best lineup in baseball forever, even with whichever prospect they lost… Go for it.
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Allentown, no matter what metric you use, be it last year, last 3 years, career, etc etc,
Halladay is a superior pitcher to Cliff Lee. No disrespect to Cliff.
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Seattle’s the one makier the riskier, short-term deal–they get an ace for one year but give up a crap ton of prospects. We get an ace for 4+ years and almost break even as far as prospects go.
If Taylor is in the deal and turns out to be a stud for the Jays, that’s how the cookie crumbles. We have so many outfield prospects right now, and both Taylor and Brown are nearly ready for the show. The Phils might still re-sign Werth, and then Taylor’s totally blocked. If they wait until next offseason to deal with the outfield logjam, then Amaro will be trading from a forced position of weakness.
I for one like the way Amaro and company aggressively pursue what they want, instead of sitting back and sipping champagne and resting on their laurels after getting to 2 straight WS. These ain’t the same Phillies I grew up watching!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Lee was in AAA because his ERA was over 6 and his mechanics were completely out of whack, plus he had an injury. But even before the season, he hadn’t been near Halladay.
No one is saying that Lee is average. But Halladay is the better pitcher.
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Lee had some rough starts near the end of the year, but so did Halladay after the trade deadline, it happens. Didn’t seem to matter much when Lee was throwing up all those 0’s in the playoffs.
And for everyone who is comparing their career stats, that’s great. For sure Hallliday has had the better career. But we’re not paying for Halliday to pitch for us in 2007, we’re talking about right now. Unless you’re afraid that Lee will revert to his 07 form, those are moot points.
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i just looked up juan ramirez and tyson gillies. i cant find anything on ramirez but gillies hit .341, 9hr, 42 rbi, 44sb as a cf in class a advanced
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Ramirez –
http://firstinning.com/players/Juan-Ramirez-a
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NEPP-
I’m not disagreeing with you that Halladay isn’t the better pitcher. Still, it is ludicrous to denigrate Lee as simply ‘a nice pitcher’. Lee is an ace. Halladay is a better ace.
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the reason the phillies wouldnt be able to resign lee isnt because of the length but the money. they are already pushing 140million and would be really difficult to resign him especially since there are couple of other players elgible for free agency
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To be clear…I said “very nice player” By that I mean a guy that will annually be pushing for an AS spot…not a Joe Blanton.
On Gillies…he did his damage in the High Desert league so take it with a grain of salt…he’s a prospect but his .916 OPS last year is a tad inflated.
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Juan Ramirez was a 21 year old at end of season, in high A ball. He had a not great 4.12 ERA and 7K/9IP, 3.3 BB/IP, more than a hit/IP. Good size at 6-3″
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Im not a fan of Gillies.
Im hoping we’re getting back a Morrow, Liddi, or JC Ramirez, something of that sort.
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Why doesn’t this trade work if we send Cliff Lee to Toronto straight up for Roy Halladay??? Cliff Lee apparently is not signing here long term and Roy Halladay is not re-signing with Toronto while controlling his possible trade destination, leaving Toronto with the possibility of only getting 2 Draft picks after the season. Toronto would be a aquiring a similar pitcher, although halladay is a better pitcher, while saving 7.5 million on their payroll and guaranteeing the same 2 Draft Picks…If Toronto wants to turn around and trade Cliff Lee immediately, they can do so to anyone in the league and demand higher compensation because his salary is more manageable …I DO NOT UNDERSTAND WHY WE ARE GIVING UP 2 OF OUR TOP 10 PROSPECTS WHILE SAVING TORONTO MONEY AND RE-STOCKING THEIR FARM SYSTEM??? Taylor is going to be a major regret ala Ryne Sandberg when Ibanez comes back and is another year older and slower…Moving Victorino and sliding Werth over may have been the prudent move, a step back for the future of the team.
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Sorry, I see I typoed. Ramirez’s ERA is 5.12.
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PhuturePhillies: Im not a fan of Gillies.
I’m happy I’m not alone on that.
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Gillies seems like a guy somewhere between Hewitt and Gose. I guess that makes him exactly the sort of player that gets the Phillies’ hormones flowing.
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I don’t like it. For some reason I don’t find it believable that we can sign Halladay to an extension that is cheaper than one Lee would accept. It defies logic.. especially taking into account the difference in salary next season.
As for comparing the two pitchers, its like debating whether Beil or Alba is the hotter Jessica. Its irrelevant. So by that token, trading Cliff Lee AND Micheal Taylor for Halladay is like trading Jessica Beil and Megan Fox for Jessica Alba– Is the difference in hotness substantial enough to give up two for one? I don’t personally don’t think so.
Somehow miraculously getting Halladay for way under market value– like for an amount substantial enough to sign Werth long-term– is the only way I could justify this trade. Otherwise Amaro just has a Halladay fetish.
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I’m a longtime Jays fan, and I can tell you that you will all be buying Halladay jerseys. Total class act who dominated the toughest division in baseball. Workaholic whose habits rub off on his peers. Start planning your parade route.
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Ramirez pitched at High Desert. Its one of the 3 best hitting parks in the minors.
http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=500724
His numbers were much better on the road. Plus, he was pretty young for A+ ball
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I’m confused. What’s not to like about Gillies? That his stats are inflated? Even if you uninflate them they’re still pretty good for a 20 year old CF. 80/60 K/BB ratio ain’t too shabby.
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PP —
His away era of 4.32 isn’t all that great and his K/9 rate is worse on the road.
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the halladay extension is cheaper because he was willing to sacrifice to win. i heard that scott boras said somewhere that cliff lee would be able to command 25million a year as a free agent and apparently that has gone to his head. it should cost the phillies more to aquire halladay because he is the better pitcher and there is a guaranteed contract extension. with what i just said, chances are the mariners will not be able to resign lee. also, i think everybody underestimates the difficulty of playing in the al east as an opposing pitcher. having a 2.8 era is truly remarkable in that division
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I think everyone is happy for what Halladay has done in the past, but the key question is what will he do in the future. I realize that any pitching deal is a crap shoot to a certain degree, but based on Halladay’s age and mileage, is anyone concerned of a potential breakdown?
I realize the guy is a horse, but in the back of my head, I’m a little concerned.
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Happ, Brown, and Blanton instead?
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/sports/2010508134_apbbophilliesbluejayshalladay.html
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****but based on Halladay’s age and mileage, is anyone concerned of a potential breakdown? ****
No more than I would be with Lee. Lee’s pitched nearly 500 innings in the last 2 years including 270+ last year alone.
Last two seasons:
Halladay – 485 IP
Lee – 495 IP
Roll of the dice really.
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I believe that AP quote on this thread, said it’s Blanton, Happ, and D. Brown to Seattle. ESPN has Toronto getting Phillippe Aumont from Seattle, plus D’Arnaud another prospect from Phillies. Phillies get Halladay plus 2 prospects from Seattle, I seen something on a crawl somewhere that said SS Carlos Triunfel, and the AAA catcher, Moore or something like that. If Triunfel goes to Phillies, I say Freddy Galvis is the 3rd guy to Toronto. How about that?
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Also Lee’s agent says no one has talked to him about any of this, so maybe it is Happ , Blanton, and Brown to Seattle.
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marfis, nearly all National reporters and sources have Lee gone…its gotta be Lee at this point.
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I was reading off of a Report in Seattle Post Intelligencer from Rob Maadi , that gave deal as such.
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I think that’s an old report to be honest…no one else from any source has confirmed it while they’re all saying Lee to Seattle…Heyman and Stark, among others have confirmed it since that report went out saying Blanton.
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I think I was just hoping it was Blanton versus Lee.
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Settle people. This is a very smart move. I love Lee, but he wants Santana money–$137.5 guaranteed over 6. We get Roy for $60 million over 3 plus vesting options. I’m no math wiz, but that’s a no brainer. I’m hearing we give up D’Arnoud, our best catching prospect and a Canadian, plus probably Michael Taylor. That is a stiff price, so you have to believe that we’re getting a pitching prospect or several back from from Seattle and hopefully a catcher too. Taylor’s a stud, but assuming Brown and Gose work out too, where do you put him? Does he replace ultimately replace Howard at 1B in 2012? He’s 24 and only gets older and loses value as time goes on. The key for me here is what kind of prospects do we get back from Seattle that we don’t send north?
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I love Doc and this seems like a fine deal, but when I saw that we would be giving up Taylor AND Lee it kind of took the wind out of me. I thought we had to be getting more players back (hopefully a bullpen arm). But, hey, if we are able to get a highly rated infielder or a Ramirez (who was apparently rated higher than Aumont in some lists) or Moore…well I like the deal because we supplement our Minor league system AWAY from the outfield and we get DOC!
Ramirez, Triunfel and Halladay would be pretty awesome!
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I would really like to get either Morrow or Downs in the deal. Saunders is rumored to be included, but he’s another lefty OF bat, who is pretty much ML ready (I’m assuming since he played last season). I really hate giving up D’Arnaud, so another catching prospect would be nice…I don’t know why the M’s catching prospect wouldn’t just go to Tor, but whatever.
A 3b or pitching prospect would be the best IMO.
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I’m going to hold out on a long analysis post until the names are finalized.
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We give up one cheap year of Lee for one expensive year of Halladay. Plus we get to give up Taylor and D’Arnaud. Doesn’t make sense.
I know we get to extend Halladay, but that is value we get out of this deal. Toronto would not have this value. This just doesn’t add up as reported. We must be missing something. I hope we are missing something.
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Bob Elliot of Toronto now says people tell him Aumont is not in the deal. MLBTR
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Sounds like to right idea PP. Just too many names flying around. However, it does seem very likely that Roy is now a future Phillie (you know what I mean).
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blanton and happ just took physicals … now what
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looking at all of the names thrown around, it is clear that no one really knows what is in the package. i can tell you one thing for sure, we aren’t trading Lee, D’arnaud and taylor for halladay. if more than lee is in the package, then we are getting more than halladay in return. like a few good relievers.
to me, the dream scenario is happ, blanton and taylor for halladay. i would gladly swap out brown for taylor, but i think that the phils want to keep brown because taylor is basically ready and brown needs a few more years, which fits better with our lineup.
but kudos to Ruben for getting us here.
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What you are missing Ken, is that Cliff Lee and his agent want CC Sabathia money which means $160 million, meaning almost no chance he pitches in Philly in ’11. It also means we are facing the prospect of only a year and half of Cliff Lee for Corrasco, Knapp, Donald, and Marson. You wanna talk about a bad deal…Instead we now get 3 years of Roy at $60 million with a possibility of more, plus Toronto will likely pay part of his ’10 salary. As far as D’Arnoud and Taylor, it is definitely a stiff price as Lee for Halladay is almost an even-up trade. That is why I’m certain we’re getting prospects(probably pitching) back from Seattle.
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Uh, oh….better hope this isn’t true. Salisbury is reporting the Phils give up Le,, Taylor, D’Arnaud and Drabek…..
http://www.csnphilly.com/pages/landing_09?Sources-Halladay-May-Cost-Phils-Lee-Drab=1&blockID=103216&feedID=704
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Now they’re throwing Drabek’s name into this mess????
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I think that Salisbury is drunk if that’s the case…there’s no way in hell Rube would do that…barring a scenario where he’s a plant for Toronto.
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No way that is true. Rube would never give up that much talent.
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The Phillies’ long pursuit of Roy Halladay is almost over – at a steep price that includes postseason hero Cliff Lee and top pitching prospect Kyle Drabek…..Once the extension is complete, the Phillies are expected send three prospects to Toronto. A source identified those prospects as Drabek, outfielder Michael Taylor and catcher Travis D’Arnaud. ” -Jim Salisbury csnphilly.com
THis has to be 100% wrong correct? How could we trade 3 top PLUS Lee? I’d imagine those 3 together would alone get you Halladay
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7:04pm: Drabek and “other top [Phillies] prospects” will be involved in the deal, according to Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com (via Twitter). According to Salisbury, Brown will remain with the club.
Okay, now I’m going to have a hissy fit.
Unless this is something ridiculous and off the wall like
Seattle Receives: Lee, Blanton
Toronto Receives: Drabek, Seattle Prospect
Philadelphia Receives: King Felix, Halladay
Actually, even then, I’m going to have a hissy fit. Rumors abound, but there’s no scenario in which I’m okay with giving up both Lee and Drabek.
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From radio and comment reports this is what I’ve been hearing:
Mariners get: Cliff Lee, Lyle Overbay
Phillies get: Roy Halladay, Mariner prospect (Morrow), Scott Downs,
Jays get: Taylor OR Brown, D’Arneaud, Aumont, Saunders
Also hearing Blanton, Happ, and even Drabek could all be involved. I doubt the Drabek piece, but the return for the Phils may be much more than just Halladay.
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Oops, I missed something in the post above. Seattle gets Taylor too.
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Unconfirmed reports have Utley, Howard, Werth, Hamels and Lee going to Seattle for prospects to be flipped for Halladay.
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Gary, you do realize that you just traded Lee, Blanton and Drabek for Halladay and Hernandez? There is not a gm in baseball who would reject that trade.
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I’m starting to get a bit nervous…obviously we aren’t going to give them 3/5ths of our rotation plus 3 of our top 5!!!!!
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I think we have to give Ruben the benefit of the doubt here. Let’s just stay calm until this is done.
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I am going with Stark on this one:
we get Halladay plus two Seattle prospects; Seattle gets Lee; and Toronto gets a Seattle prospect and two Phillies prospects (probably Taylor and D’Arnaud).
Makes the most sense out of all the reported deals. I seriously doubt we traded Brown or Drabek when both were sticking points last July.
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I’m guessing the Salisbury rumor is for a straight trade with Toronto, and we keep Lee.
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Oh no, I’m just making things up. Like I said, hissy fit.
I threw in Taylor, D’arnaud’s unnamed somewhere in there.
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Well .. setting aside some of the more outlandish rumors, the real question seems to be: do you think Halladay (or really any pitcher) is worth 60 million over three years? If the answer is yes, and assuming that Taylor and D’Arnaud is the price for 3 years of Halladay (plus one year of Lee for one more year of Halladay), then the deal is a good one. (I’m not sure I would give any pitcher 60 million for 3, but that is a slightly below market price.)
Can we at least please all agree that there is no way that this deal would be happening if Lee was signable? 3 years at 60 million is cheap compared to what Lee is looking for.
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Lee plus a top 5 prospect for Halladay? I don’t think so! Lee plus a middle prospect ( D’arnaud, Savery) makes more sense on the phillies side. If the phillies are giving up a Taylor or someone else high up on there list, they will be getting back some prospects from Seattle they like more than there own.
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The skies darken over Toronto.
As a Jays fan you guys just got the best pitcher in the league. During the Godless 2nd half of the season, I watched only Halladay games. Get ready to enjoy solid, 2 runs against starts for years to come. Oh and get used to saying “Halladay had a bad game tonight” after a 8 inning 4 runs against outing. He’s gonna get they CY young award now that he has an offense with him.
Do you guys wanna trade for Vernon Wells too? All I want is a bag of baseballs….
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You could argue D’Arnaud is a top 5 prospect.
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Well, if it is a 3-team deal (which is obvious) I doubt anyone would want Savery. I doubt they could trade Savery for J.P. Ricciardi’s former secretary. I’d say in order to get someone great , you gotta part with a star (Lee) and a pretty high prospect (looks to be Drabek, Taylor or Brown) plus the potential of D’Arnaud.
Losing D’Arnaud is a shame but in order for a shot at another ring, concessions needs to be made. Same with Drabek and Brown. There’s no guarantee, no matter how great they look, that they will end up as All-Stars or even above-average types.
Their ceilings are All-Stars for a few go-rounds. Halladay’s floor is that.
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SportsNet, you’re nuts.
Nothing has changed, we refused to deal Drabek before, he’s not getting dealt now, in addition to Lee. The most likely trade on all fronts is on mentioned earlier:
Mariners get: Cliff Lee, Lyle Overbay
Phillies get: Roy Halladay, Mariner prospect (Morrow), Scott Downs,
Jays get: Taylor OR Brown, D’Arneaud, Aumont, Saunders
OR
Mariners get: Cliff Lee
Phillies get: Roy Halladay
Jays get: Taylor, Aumont
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Sebastian Valle is now the catcher of the future IMO.
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Karl-I was responding to sllabs that said Lee and a middle prospect would do it. I was providing examples of high-end prospects….
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More confirmation that Drabek’s in the deal and Aumont is not, this time out of the Toronto area. (Check MLBTR for more)
Ahhh. Hissy fit.
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I understand, but we’re not moving Lee, Drabek and D’Arnaud for Halladay. That price is asinine.
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This is really a straight up deal when you look at it. Lee for Halladay. Is there really that much of a difference in these two except that the Phils are getting a righty of the same caliber? Now when you put Taylor in the deal, this implies that the Phils believe Halladay is that much better. Is he really? I like what Lee did for us in the playoffs. It would have been better had we just made a deal with Toronto to get Halladay as well as keep Lee. So what if we loose him. At least we are odds on favorite to win the W.S. Now if we are getting another prospect or two back in the deal who are worth something or a stud reliever then Slam Dunk. However, I believe that this deal was made just as much for salary reasons then for quality.
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We had BETTER be getting something GREAT from Seatle. Losing Drabek and Lee would leave a very horrible taste in my mouth.
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Karl-I never meant to say that was going to happen. I was trying to include D’Arnaud in the top prospects since I think he was just implying Taylor, Brown and Drabek were the top ones in the organization. The end of the post which I said losing them would suck means any one of them. Not cumulatively.
Sorry for confusion.
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You know what. Right now every name in the book seems to be in the mix. Nothing seems to be done yet, ESPN is still standing with their initial players reported.
Come on Ruben…make it good!
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Avery,
Did you just ignore over 150 posts? The difference between Halladay and Lee, aside from the fact that Halladay is better, is that they can sign Halladay to a three year extension, and they can’t sign Lee.
You can argue that that isn’t sufficient reason to include a couple of good prospects, but for the life of me I don’t understand how you (And others) can just iognore that aspect of the deal. That’s not just a minor factor, that’s the MAIN REASON FOR THE DEAL.
Of course, in a sense it is being made for salary reasons – in that the Phillies aren’t stupid enough to agree to the absurd long term contract that Lee wants – but that’s a kind of silly way to look at it; world peace enforced by a visiting space alien is more likely than the Phillies signing Lee past next year.
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Well in that sense I agree, D’Arnaud deserves consideration as one of the orgs top prospects. I’m just frustrated with all the conflicting reports, many of which have us sending an offensive boatload of prospects to the Jays. We wouldn’t budge on Drabek a year ago, what makes anyone think we will now?
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@Avery
Halladay here
Lee down here
Looking at consistent dominance of a game Lee doesn’t compare in the least
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AP sources say Blanton and Happ got physicals today. Now wny would they go and do that? Hmmmmmmm? Oh I got it. Blanton trade frees up money and Happ has been coveted by Toronto. Sounds like Drabek stays and Happ goes. Blanton might be goin in another deal to bring back a stud reliever. I just will have to trust that Ruben is not mortgaging the future for his white whale Halladay.
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No way this happens:
Mariners get: Cliff Lee
Phillies get: Roy Halladay
Jays get: Taylor, Aumont
Mariners only give up Aumont for Lee? Phils would have to get something more along with the Jays.
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Karl:
I think it’s just panic. We know big names will have to go (well big names in our eyes) and the biggest fish in the pond, a pitcher, is Drabek. When I first heard that this was a probability, my mind immediately went to Drabek being dealt. I know it doesn’t make sense, but that’s just how I guess our minds work.
I really can’t wait for the official word. I’ve never been so excited yet confused as a Phillies fan…ever.
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Kevin -> You’re right, of course.
My guess here is that we’re hearing so many conflicting rumors because the three teams are bouncing back and forth between two very different trades: One which sends Blanton to Seattle and a lot of Philly prospects to Toronto, and another which sends Lee to Seattle and not nearly as many prospects.
The two deals, and all the potential players are causing a serious case of media retardation.
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Stark just said we’re giving up Drabek, but getting Aumont.
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mlbtraderumors reporting drabek is in the deal…why not just give him straight to toronto and keep lee?
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Because Lee = 4-0 layoffs and cy young award winner, drabek prospect? Wouldn’t be even. The trade w toronto last year was drabek w brown and taylor/happ. If we send drabek, we will be getting back a LOT more then Halladay, so no need to think he’s selling the farm just for Halladay.
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I hope you’re right about getting more than halladay, but look at Lee from Seattle’s perspective – a one year rental on a team that stayed in the race last year but wasn’t elite by any stretch. They’re not gonna give up all their top prospects for that, and the ones they do, toronto will probably end up with.
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Sorry, Stark said that it was D’Arnaud, Lee, Taylor and Drabek/Happ. Has to be Halladay, Aumont and someone else.
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And I checked with someone who said Aumont is not in the deal at all.
Its all mindless speculation at this point. In fact, I bet there are multiple proposals on the table right now and things aren’t close to done.
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I am not interested in giving up Drabek, I hate that thought
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i dont think amaro would give up drabek, taylor, and d’arnaud for halladay so in no way would he also include lee. i’m not saying that lee isn’t part of the deal but they are not giving up drabek
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No they’re twittering (elliot) that Aumont is coming to the Phillies. Is he as good a prospect as Drabek?
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No, he’s not. He has health issues which may end or significantly alter his career before it ever starts.
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Aumont might be the Phillies closer by midseason. Reminds me a lot of Jonathan Broxton.
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Bob Elliot of the Toronto sun is saying drabeks in and aumonts not. I would not like that. That also leaves Seattle’s contribution unknown does anyone know if we have interest in anyone else in the M’s farm?
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This has been the most interesting trade speculation in the history of the Organization.
Trust in Rube…he has done pretty well so far.
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Curious, but what about major league level with the M’s. Any fits with their bullpen we might be interested in?
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Im not a big fan of Aumont, fwiw
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I can’t handle this, I need real information from a reliable source!!!
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Aumont has control issues, a poor delivery, only 2 pitches and injury concerns from what I’ve read.
Has anyone read anything different?
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Aumont has good control, good velocity, decent delivery, great sinker, average breaking, below average change, injury concerns (elbow).
that’s what I’ve read
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what I don’t understand is that we are giving up lee but still giving up Drabek, Taylor, Darnaud, Lee is basically equal to Halladay. Maybe we would have to put in one prospect like Darnaud but shouldnt seattle do the rest of the heavy lifting since we are giving them lee. The phillies will have given up knapp, taylor, carrasco, donald, marson, drabek, and darnaud just to get to roy halladay in the end. Maybe they get a couple prospects from seattle but in my opinion the phillies just wasted their whole top ten prospects to get the same guy in the end.
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And a degenerative hip condition that will never let him start.
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I am not going to rehash what has already been stated (at least I will attempt as much). I did not like the idea of Amaro being the GM in the first place because I thought he spent to much time under Ed Wade and felt his brain may have been compromised.
However, as obsessed (according to many media outlets) as he supposedly is with obtaining Halladay, he walked away from the Toronto table last season because the price was just too high. He impressed me then and deserved praise for acquiring Lee the way he did. For this reason, I can’t see him going back and completely overpaying for Doc now. It just does not add up. I’ll give Amaro the benefit of the doubt until the official deal is announced.
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As per Heyman’s most recent article:
The Mariners would get Lee in the trade to complement Felix Hernandez and form a formidable rotation, while the Phillies balance their rotation by adding the right-handed Halladay at the top to go with lefty Cole Hamels. Seattle and Philadelphia are both expected to give up prospects in the deal, with the Mariners sending prospects to both the Phillies and Blue Jays. It is believed righthanded pitcher Phillipe Aumont, a Canadian, may be going to Toronto from Seattle. Other names discussed included Mariners athletic outfield prospect Michael Saunders and Phillies outfield prospect Michael Taylor. The Mariners were trying to hold onto top pitching prospect Brandon Morrow.
Nothng whatsoever about Drabek here (and he’s a high enough profile prospect particularly after the Lee rumblings last summer to think he’d have ben mentioned) fwiw.
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I heard that the Phils are including a bucket of balls and two batting helmets to Toronto and the Mariners are including the Mayor of Seattle and future considerations.
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JT – I think you are right on there. After all of that, there’s simply no way Amaro just caves here. You’re going to see one (and only one) top prospect (probably Taylor from the looks of it) move and if another one gets thrown in, it’s because they’ll be getting someone else’s big-time prospect (Morrow?) who the Phils might like better.
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I’m starting to think this has to be the case. Stark’s latest report had the Phillies giving up Drabek, Taylor and d’Arnaud (along with Lee, obviously) and only getting back Halladay and Gillies. That doesn’t even come close to passing the smell test: the Phils refused to discuss Drabek in July, so why would they include him in the deal now along with Cliff Lee?
Let’s just try not to get worked up until we see what’s actually going on here. Jim Bowden doesn’t know, Jim Salisbury doesn’t know, Jonathan Mayo only knows the names being discussed and not the packages — it’s all guesswork.
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20 year olds with degenerative hips should be not be traded for.
On Aumont’s control (since there are apparently conflicting reports), I’ve read the following:
“However, he hasn’t always stayed on top of the ball resulting in poor command (career 3.5 BB/9). Also, some have noted that his straight and stiff left leg during his landing will cause arm and upper body stress.” -http://razzball.com/scouting-the-unknown-9-9-9/
I saw a comment of “pretty good control for his age” on the MLB page when he was ranked as the 33rd best prospect in the country in 2008…however he was no where to be found on the updated list at last year’s trade deadline after he was converted to a closer due to the injuries. The more positive comments were all from when he was still thought to be a starter.
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Jason Grey saw him in the AFL and liked his fastball a lot, said his curveball flashed plus but needs to work on his command. He’s only 21 as well.
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I don’t see why the Phillies would pass on trading Drabek, Brown, and Happ in July for Halladay, only to cough up Carrasco, Donald, Marson, Knapp, Cliff Lee, Drabek, Taylor, D’arnaud for Halladay now.
Even if we get a prospect or two it’s just stupid, stupid, stupid
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I don’t mind trading some of the prospects in the outfield to get some top level infield prospects in return. So let’s say that the deal costs Lee, D’arnoud (sp?) and Drabek. But the Phils get Halladay and a Plus infield (3bmaybe) prospect. I’d have to say pull the trigger.
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I agree with the last two posts. Why trade a package that just about could have gotten Halladay last year AND Lee for Halladay. Halladay is better then Lee, no question, but not Drabek and Taylor better. Unless Halladay pitches every other day this stinks.
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And if you float the deal more and toss in a Brown OR Taylor and get a Dynamite young closer in the deal, even more so. You’re taking a strength in the outfield and bolstering other areas.
Hate to lose Brown or Taylor tho. They would be fun to watch together in the outfield.
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Its looking more and more like we’re giving up our entire farm system AND Cliff Lee for Halladay….not smart.
As the rumors stand right now, I HATE this deal…even if we get Aumont and Saunders back in it.
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Also, I don’t like trading prospects for prospects.
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I highly doubt that Drabek goes anywhere unless the Phils get an equal talent in return from the M’s.
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Looks like Drabek, Taylor and d’Arnaud are gone but no one has told them yet.
http://www.csnphilly.com/pages/blog_philliesminorleague
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Slow down. This is what the media wants. Us to be pawns. We no longer have Ed Wade running the show. The Entire farm system is not going anywhere. We’ll all wake up tomorrow and the deal won’t be done. New names will be out there and Jennie Fynch might be included. So, don’t let this get out of control.
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Cliff Lee as a salary dump. Who’d have thought…
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This is crazy, reports are out there is a real possibility of a 2 team trade out there where the phillies keep lee and grab Halliday… The proposal I heard was blanton happ and brown.
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Right, James? I mean, if you’re going to salary dump, why not dump Blanton?
The day has taken an awful turn with the most recent rumored packages. Unbelievable.
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I don’t know about you guys, but I’m completely disregarding rumors of who is in the packages. Wake me when the deal is done and I’ll have an opinion.
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Sources say only Phillies would receive Seattle prospects for Lee. None would be shipped to Toronto. Kyle Drabek is involved.
-Zolecki
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Yeah, I agree with PhillyFriar. The Lee half of the deal can’t possibly be right. If they’re going to dump salary they’d be better off shipping out Blanton for a lesser package. Seems like the compensation for Lee as a type-A would be comparable to what they’re getting back in for him now from the M’s.
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Screw it…if that’s the case why are the M’s the only suitor for Lee?!??!!?!?
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I’m with Alan, I’m not buying these reports. There is no way Amaro is stupid enough to trade away half our rotation and 3 top prospects (from the four ranked farm team no less) for Halladay and possibly some injured prospects.
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ESPN has it. Aumont and Gillies to the Phils. And Halladay of course. Lee to Seattle. D’Arnaud, Drabek and Taylor to Toronto.
Pretty good win-win-win. Phils get perhaps the best pitcher in baseball for four years.
I always love how fans fall head over heels for prospects. Think about it. If he maximizes his potential, then adds 10 percent, Drabek won’t touch what Halladay is going to do for Philly over the next four years. Won’t even sniff it.
And we get a stud prospect to replace him. I do find the loss of D’Arnaud unfortunate. But four years of Halladay is worth it.
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Who knows what’s going on.
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Its Aumont and Gillies per the Seattle scribes:
http://www.fanfeedr.com/mlb/2009/12/15/espn-phillippe-aumont-and-tyson-gilliesto-the-phillies
Can’t say that really excites me.
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Because there are prospects in Seattle that Pat Gillick knows and likes. He brought them in. So if you look at it. The difference will be whether the prospects that were traded for Lee the first time are better than the prospects than were traded for him the second time.
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Here’s video of Gillies. Stats are good and looks like another Victorino type.
http://projectprospect.com/article/2009/08/13/tyson-gillies-scouting-report
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Also, could some of this be expectations management on the part of one or another of the parties involved? It would be in Ruben Amaro’s interest to float the most absurdly one-sided scenarios imaginable–that would make whatever he does do look canny by comparison. On the other hand, one or another of the other GMs could be floating alternate scenarios in the media so as to increase their leverage in ways we don’t necessarily comprehend right now. I’m a journalist myself, and one thing I know for certain is: people in positions of authorities who are involved in high stakes negotiations DO NOT give details of them out simply for the sake of sharing an interesting piece of gossip. They authorize leaks only when they think it benefits their position in some way.
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The package I would try to work with the M’s would be to include a pitcher and a top infield prospect. Think about it then. You have turned the four prospects to the indians plus drabek, taylor, and happ, into the most dominating pitcher in the game for the next four years, plus another top pitching prospect puls the infield prospect that the system lacks.
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Why are the Phillies even dealing with Seattle if none of the prospects from Seattle are going to Toronto?
Shop Lee on the open market.
This comes down to the magic $140M number. How awesome does giving Jamie Moyer a ridiculous 2 year contract look now?
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Lee is not just a salary dump. It’s about recouping what was spent on him in the summer. That way it is more palatable to make the trade for Haladay.
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In a way, I love the move. Can transition the four guys sent to Cleveland in exchange for prospects chosen for position or need. Then the discussion about whether that deal is worth can happen while we also discuss the price for Halladay.
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****Why are the Phillies even dealing with Seattle if none of the prospects from Seattle are going to Toronto?****
James, if you don’t stop with that common sense, I’m gonna talk to the moderator to get you banned from this site.
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****How awesome does giving Jamie Moyer a ridiculous 2 year contract look now?****
He’s got great veteran savviness…and guile.
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• Tyson Gillies, a 20-year-old outfielder at high Class A in the Mariners organization, has true 80 speed on the 20-80 scouting scale, which was in evidence at the Futures Game. During one sequence, the Canadian bunted his way on base in a play where the U.S. team had no chance of catching him, beat a sure pickoff play by pitcher Brian Matusz to steal second, then stole third soon after. He finally scored on a double-play ball.
Gillies is hitting .327 in the hitting-friendly environment at High Desert with a .435 on-base percentage and 23 steals. He’s still learning the ropes as far as reading pitchers and getting good jumps, and he is swiping bags purely on raw speed. However, fantasy owners need to monitor him because of his range in the outfield and his above-average arm, which allows him to play all three outfield positions. He can use his line-drive stroke to hit for enough average at the higher levels to take advantage of his fleet feet. Even if he winds up as a fourth outfielder, his speed tool will be an asset in fantasy play.
Sounds like Gose, yeah that makes sense another toolsy outfielder. Shoulda gotten Triunfel.
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Because Gillick knows the Seattle farm system!!!! Plus the M’s will give the most. No other teams are looking to trade for an ace. Prospects are too valuable to most teams.
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I don’t buy it, the phillies could raise average ticket prices by $3 extra dollars and cover both lee and Halliday…. Is there anyone here who wouldn’t pay 3 extra dollars to have both of those players the entire year instead of just one?
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You’re aware that Gillick hasn’t been in Seattle since 2005. Both of these guys were drafted well after that.
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If the Phillies are really just getting the Seattle prospects in return, I don’t understand why they’d make the deal a three way with them. I’d have to think that somebody would give up more for Lee, especially the Angels. They already lost Figgins to a division rival, lost out on Halladay, and lost Lackey. They have $ and talent, and would seem to be a better match than Seattle.
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The Angles wouldn’t want to go out and get a replacement for Lackey?
2 players for Lee would be a bit annoying.
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the mlb.com says its a 3 way trade the mariners get travis d’arnaud
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For what it’s worth, Dave Cameron (a writer at Fangraphs and a Mariners fan) asserts that there’s simply no way the Mariners are getting Lee in exchange for Aumont and Gillies.
Logic would seem to be on his side, but the way today’s gone, I guess you never know.
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Weirdly, if they were struggling to find the $9M to pay Lee this year, they could have non-tendered Blanton, who will make about $7M this year, and non-tendered Durbin, who will make about $2M this year.
Instead they are dumping Cliff Lee for two marginal prospects. Or so it seems.
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James, that’s it! You’re banned!
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It’s simple math. Is Halladay worth Drabek, Tayler and D’arnaud? The other trade is Corasco, Marson, et al for whatever comes from the third team. Answer that question and call it an evening. I think that for Lee the Phils need to make sure they get a pitcher, infielder and outfielder. And then see where the dust settles.
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Isn’t Gillies the deaf kid? I think I remembered them talking about that at the Futures game this summer.
He certainly seems to have some solid numbers. Like others have said though, we have serious infield issues in the minors.
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Yes, Gillies is legally deaf.
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If Happ is in the trade it makes no sense whatsoever. Financially its a nightmare.
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Gillies is the deaf kid, right? I think I remember them talking about this at the futures game.
Although as I type this I’m seeing an update that has the Mariners only giving up Aumont….there’s NO WAY they are getting Cliff Lee for one low-A pitcher!?
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There’s no way Rube is doing this. The Lee trade was so savvy and awesome! He’s the first GM I’ve ever been like, “Wow, he’s doing a better job than I fantasize I could if I ever got to be GM.”
Now we’re swapping our ace for an ace who’s better and our good prospects for prospects that are kind of like ours but suck? Its just seems so unnecessary!
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**Sorry for the double post…they’re coming out slowly tonight!
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There’s no way what theyre reporting can be true. This would be a truly horrendous and lopsided trade. Why would they dump off Lee for a deaf kid and a mediocre low A pitcher? Hang on to him for one more championship season, they shouldnt be in a rebuilding mode. This is ridiculous
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Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun (via Twitter) has Toronto getting Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, and Travis D’Arnaud; Philly getting Roy Halladay and Philippe Aumont; and the Mariners getting Cliff Lee, plus another piece (or, pieces).
-MLBTR
——————–
Haha, come onnn! Mariners give up one player for an ace and get other “piece(s)” in return. Why would he even post that??
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Just wait guys, the deal isnt official until they agree to an extension and exchange medical records. Then we will get the final info. Aumont is a good relief prospect. Dont know about Gilles. There CLEARLY is missing and conflicting info on the final package here.
Theres no way the Phils move Lee for Aumont, Gilles, and cash. Maybe they get Triunfel too. Is that enough for Lee?
D’Arnaud, Taylor, and Drabek is steep, but it is essentially for Halladay plus a contract extension.
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Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun (via Twitter) has Toronto getting Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, and Travis D’Arnaud; Philly getting Roy Halladay and Philippe Aumont; and the Mariners getting Cliff Lee, plus another piece (or, pieces).
Seriously.
If I was a mariner’s fan, I’d die from joy
Cliff Lee and another Piece for Aumont?
Hell, they even get to keep Gillies in this madman’s dream.
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His name isnt being mentioned, but Ill bet Morrow is in the dea. with Aumont and Gilles. Thats more like it.
You have:
Halladay
Hamels
Blanton
Happ
Morrow
thats a diesel rotation
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The logic is so far off kilter that I have to think this whole situation is being misreported.
Then I start to think about Ruben Amaro, and it doesn’t seem so unlikely. You can almost see the wheels turning. “Well, we could have Cliff Lee for another year, then collect the draft picks when he leaves as a free agent. Or we could have Joe Blanton and Chad Durbin, plus another Anthony Gose and a younger, healthier Scott Mathieson. Yup, let’s take the latter package.”
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what doesnt make sense is
The Phillies turned down Drabek + Taylor + Gose + Happ for 1.5 seasons of Halladay plus the chance to sign him to an extension, but now they’ll trade Drabek + Taylor + D’Arnaud + Cliff Lee for him plus two average prospects. Not to mention Carrasco, Marson, Donald and Knapp.
Just doesn’t make sense that they’d have basically traded 7 prospects for Halladay and 2 other prospects. Something is missing here.
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If the Phils are giving up Lee they better be getting something comparable to what we lost. Knapp and Carrasco are high ceiling pitchers plus two infielders…Morrow would help towards that path.
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friar- I really hope that isn’t how the wheels in his head work.
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It has to be Morrow Im telling you. Or another player coming from Toronto, like Downs. Otherwise this makes no sense.
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Been at work for 12 hours, get out and read/hear all this….
stunned.
At first I was thrilled but if it costs us literally our entire farm….than why do it?????
I’ll wait to see but not liking this one bit. And no matter what I don’t want Aumont back. He’s destined to be over-hyped and not very good.
I think it would be really funny if we traded some prospects (none mentioned above) for Downs or something and everyone was totally wrong on this rumor. And ya just know Olney would say how he saw Downs to Philly for Gose + May coming a mile away.
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What evidence is there that Lee is involved is this deal other than pure speculation from Rosenthal and Heyman, and why would the Phillies deal names like Drabek and Brown (along with Lee) for Halladay when they flat out refused to less then five months ago, and now that Halladay’s trade value is lesser (only one season under contract as opposed to 1.5) to another team? Also, what do the Phils want with Seattle’s prospects? I’m calling bull on this proposed deal, sounds way too fishy.
Anyway, I believe the deal will be Blanton to Seattle for Aumont… who then gets flipped with Happ, Taylor, and D’arnaud for Halladay.
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Yeah Downs is under contract for one year for 4 million dollars.
~3.3 FIP reliever.
In other words, go sign Chan Ho Park, let me keep Gose and May. (Park had a ~2.3 FIP while a reliever, sure it’s flukey, but I’d take a flukey Park at 3 million a year if I get to keep Gose and May)
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Gary….I was joking
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Really? Because that’s pretty much the cost of trading for a reliever with closer experience.
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Even though ESPN is trying to make it sound like this deal is complete, Im still not biting, and still not writing it up.
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Agree w/ PP. It doesn’t add up if you look at it from a distance.
I’m afraid that might not be the way Amaro is looking at it though. Friar just laid out a plausible scenario from the Lee side of things. From the Toronto/Phils side of the talks, I wonder if the contract Halladay is rumored to get affects the package they’re asking for. If it’s a 3 year/20mil extension, that’s an awfully attractive contract for the Phils. It takes some of the leverage away from the Phils b/c the Jays are no longer trading just 1 year of Roy. You’re getting a top 5 pitcher for below market value. Perhaps that gets the Jays the upgrade from Aumont to Drabek.
Not saying it’s makes the deal right, but it probably impacts the package Toronto is getting in return.
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So basically this isn’t a 3 way deal, it’s 2 different deals??????
Does anyone else have this terrible feeling this trade will end badly for the Phills? Cause I do right now.
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Cliff Lee’s agent has emphatically stated that no contact has been made to he or his client, meanwhile Halladay is already in Philly getting a physical and talking an extension. That seems weird to me
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If this is a done deal then Phillies definitely lose, not point in trading Lee if Seattles propects aren’t going to Toronto. Buying High on Halladay and selling Low on Lee. Wtf!!!!!!!!
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I’ll give this trade a big fat F if this is real.
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So many parts of this deal make no sense.
Also, when there is a big deal, normally one beat writer breaks it and the rest just pile on and churn out the same story. But in this case, every outlet has a different story and a different list of names.
Its so strange.
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I wish this whole thing was just a giant prank on Ken Rosenthal for writing that wacky, speculative article over the weekend. I would just love it for that short little bastard to come out of this looking stupid, rather than looking like some hot-stove Nostradamus
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From Section 113: if the deal is what ESPN is rumoring, then there’s no way it doesn’t end poorly.
It’s two separate deals, in essence, so let’s look at it like that.
Deal #1: Drabek + Taylor + d’Arnaud –for– Halladay
As PP says above, this doesn’t make a lot of sense. We turned down a similar value package in July (Drabek, Brown, and Happ), and that when the Blue Jays had at least some leverage, and some interested teams. The Yankees (trading prospects for Granderson) and the Red Sox (signing Lackey) are out of the running now, leaving the Phils as Halladay’s preferred choice, and leaving Toronto with little recourse. If Amaro bailed them out by offering the above package, it would be a huge get for Anthopoulos.
Deal #2: Lee –for– Gillies + Aumont
This is, somehow, even worse than Deal #1. A toddler could shop Lee on the open market and get a better deal for him than this. The M’s clearly win this deal; in fact, it might be the most lopsided trade I can remember.
So yeah, I’m still thinking this doesn’t quite add up. I can only hope Amaro and his henchmen are actually thinking this through as well.
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Speculation aside, losing Drabek/Taylor/D’Arnaud/Lee would be insane for Halladay. Aumont isn’t good. Have no idea who that OFer is.
I don’t get how we trade 3 of our top 4 prospects for Halladay and then trade Lee for much less than we gave up for him. I mean that package is something you offer at the deadline for a really good reliever, not Lee.
I am hoping Blanton is traded and not Lee and Happ is traded and not Drabek.
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Again, I can’t believe we’d allow ourselves to give up so much for Halladay and get so little back for Lee. It just doesn’t make any sense and if there’s been one consistent with Ruben it’s that his deals have been VERY well thought out. Getting rid of Pat and bringing in a more consistent slugger. Getting rid of Pedro and bringing in a more consistent hitter. Trading for Lee under the radar while everyone thought JP was going to get his way.
This deal isn’t anywhere near done I suspect. The names being bandied around are probably from offer to counter offer and the like.
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I just don’t understand why lee hasn’t been contacted or his agent, yet blanton, happ, brown and halladay all have now taken physicals? I really think its wrong right now and has to involve those four in some way. My prediction:
Phils: Halladay + $
M’s: Blaton + Phils prospect (mid level)
Blue Jays: Aumont, D’Arnaud, Happ, Brown
Blaton (7m) will help offset lee (9) plus part of halladays contract might get covered. I just think those four have to be involved and I think this seems even. Blue Jays previously wanted Happ and Brown, Aumomnt and D’Arnaud are both canadians. M’s said they were going after two starting pitchers, and Blanton gives them a solid 3 with big time playoff expierence to help King Felix and Morrow with zero. Plus a mid level prospect for taking on blantons salary.
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Plus, why the three team deal if no part of seattle goes to toronto, so in my deal they would have a piece moved.
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PhillyFriar-
WHAT IF you sub Blanton for Lee…
Ms get -Blanton + his contract
Phills get- Aumont + Gillies
???
Now that sounds more realistic. Now we have Lee, can try and resign him and if not scoop up 2 draft picks for him. In that scenario losing Drabek/Taylor/D’Arnaud would hurt but we’d still have Lee.
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The Gillies thing is one I don’t quite get either. Why are we trying to get another OF? If there’s one part of our system that doesn’t really need supplementing its the outfield.
Haha, gotta say…the day sure did take an interesting turn at mid-afternoon
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If we lose Lee I know I’ll regret them not pitching him on 3 days rest in the World Series….
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The ESPN graphic is saying d’Arnaud and 1 prospect (my guess would be Taylor if Toronto is looking for anyone ML-ready). And it also says the Phils get 2 Mariners prospects.
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SportsCenter has Stark reporting that the deal will be…d’Arnaud, Taylor and Happ/Drabek for Halladay…and Lee would Aumont and another. The Lee part is still very lame.
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Rosenthal reports that the Phillies get $6MM from the Jays. Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor and probably Travis D’Arnaud are headed to the Jays, Rosenthal says. Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies and a third player are apparently headed to Philadelphia.
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blues lets hope it morrow
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Can the Phillies still cancel all trades that they’ve talked about, at least the cliff lee part since it’s not a 3 team trade.
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toronto star is reporting toronto is getting taylor, d’arnaud and either drabek or j.a happ
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Aumont is 6-7 230lb. Throws nasty fastball with downward break. He is only 18 but highly regarded. Gillies is super fast and is a line drive hitter, will bunt and a good table setter.
Drabek and Aumont may be a wash eventually but Taylor gets the nod over Gillies. d’Arnaud is a decent hitting catcher. So it looks like as the deal stands that this has more to do with money than I would like to believe.
Ruben your unblemished record may just have taken a hit.
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lol. aumont is ranked 30th on baseball prospectus 2010 while drabek isn’t even in the top 100. look it up
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Aumont is an injury concern and he’s almost 21, I believe. He was converted to a reliever because of the issue. Apparently he had top of the rotation stuff before, but he isn’t a starter anymore.
Yea, the $6 million starts to make everything come together. It would make the Halladay/Lee 2010 contract comparison a push essentially which would leave us with room to get a reliever or two.
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lol toronto source. best comment of the entire post.
Another thing that doesnt make sense. “Drabek or Happ”…thats like saying a Mercedes or a Honda Civic.
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THis must mean that the Phills believe alot in Valle. I also wonder if the really did sign that Columbian kid. Maybe they blieve he’s the next hitting catcher.
Drabek has hos fair of injury concrens so he’s no sure thing.
It’s not a crazy trade but it really feels light on the Lee end.
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If we give up Happ instead of Drabek, that probably means one of the Mariners prospects then goes to Toronto.
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all sources say they’re probably gonna take drabek
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I think people are underestimating the value of having Halladay for 3 years at below market PLUS getting money from Toronto.
The money + below market = another player. So, in essence, the Phillies are getting another player in the deal. I’m not saying I love the deal, but I believe this is how the Phillies see it.
Would we have been better off having Lee for a year and getting picks for him? Lets hope these prospects are a step up from that. It’s hard to say the original Lee trade was so terrible – he led us to the WS. I know, it was “only” one year, but we don’t see so many of them around here.
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Seriously WTF was Ruben on while he did this trade Lee for Aumont, Gillies, and righty Juan Ramirez
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juan ramirez now? where are these names coming from? I’ve never seen a trade so drastically and rapidly as this one
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I think these are the most likely things that are happening
1 halladay to us
2 lee to m’s
3 m’s give up more then gillies and aumont, has to be morrow also and maybe even 1 more mid level guy to get lee
4. not gonna be brown, phils covet him
5. bye bye taylor and d’arnaud
at this point blanton, happ, drabek, i have no idea what’s happening with them neither does anyone else including the 3 teams in the mix. but i have as big a man crush on halladay as the phils do, imo he’s the best p in baseball. would like to think we are getting a reliever somewhere. that moyer contract is lookin like its gonna kill us, blame it on the world series hangover. i think the jays rebuild their system after this deal, maybe give the yank some competition……..in 3 yrs. my take is
m’s…… lee
jays….. taylor, d’arnaud, morrow, aumont, (happ?)
phils…..halladay, some of m’s prospects like gillies and/or truinfel. and drabek still phils property. wake me when its over
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i cannot understand this if the Phils are getting all of the M’s prospects. Why not either keep Lee and dump Blanton and Victorino; moving Werth to Center and Taylor to rf OR put Lee on the open market to see what you can get for him. I don’t know too much about the guys coming back, but it sounds like people on this site don’t like them. Wow, I am stunned on many levels and dizzy at all the rumors.
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so the phils are going to give up…
carrasco,donald,marson,knapp,taylor,drabek,d`arnaud,lee for halladay? wow amuro is getting hosed should have just done it at the last deadline buddy
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the only move I see Amaro making that makes sense is the proposed contract for Halladay, if he only costs 9.75 this year & 60 over the next 3, we are getting him for 17.25 per year over 4 years…and if the 2 vesting years are at 20 as well, then they get him for 6 years at 18.16 per year…definitely better than the Santana & Sabathia contracts and on par with Lackey’s rumored deal (Lackey is type A, so Drabek and D’Arnaud are the 1st and supplemental, Taylor is the true difference in acquiring Halladay over Lackey) If you had Lackey, would you trade him and Taylor for Halladay??? I don’t like losing Taylor, I would rather move Ibanez or Victorino, but it is a question worth considering.
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In this day and age where we viewed an Iranian revolution via TWITTER and FACEBOOK, and we can’t get 3 MAJOR CITY beat writers OR the NATIONAL MEDIA to even tell us who’s in a damn trade! it’s hysterical
Sounds like most of us are in agreement that there is a big piece missing in all this: namely “what else are we getting back!” and mainly b/c of this site, I absolutely don’t underestimate the potential Seattle prospects returning – if we just knew who they really were!
And am I wrong to think, as already mentioned, that Amaro and his really shrewd pensive moves since he’s taken control wouldn’t be giving up the “7 for 1” for Halladay? I mean even if Aumont comes back- he is rated/valued below Drabek at this point: Gillies below Taylor (I believe). So is there another bigger prospect coming back?
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The Cliff Lee move puzzles me more…for 9 million dollars, would you rather have Cliff Lee or Joe Blanton & Chad Durbin if you knew you would not have any of them after the 2010 season??? Seems like a simple question to everyone on here, Lee will bring a 1st and supplemental…at best we would receive 2 supplemental picks for the other 2 pitchers. If you are going to try to maximize your return, wouldn’t you shop Lee to Anaheim, Texas, CWS, or Tampa; which has an embarrassment of minor league talent, would like to make another run with a cost effective ACE, was rumored to be looking at Halladay, and could provide us with the infield talent at SS, 3B, & P to strengthen our future.
I would rather keep Lee and let him play out his contract, walk into 2010 with the best projected line-up since the mid 90’s Braves, and make a decision on 2011 when it happens.
2010: Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Blanton, Happ or Halladay, Hamels, Blanton, Happ, Moyer???
2011: Halladay, Hamels(final season at 9.5 mil) Happ, ?, ?
2012: Halladay, Happ, ?, ?, ?
FUTURE DOESN’T SEEM AS BRIGHT ON THIS GLOOMY TUESDAY MORNING…
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It’s hard to tell what is really, truly the latest news on this, but Hagen’s story this morning says this:
“A Toronto source said the Blue Jays will end up with three prospects and contribute $6 million toward Halladay’s $15.75 million salary next season. He didn’t rule out that untouchable Phillies minor leaguer Kyle Drabek could be one of them. Including Drabek, however, seems unlikely.”
The most important phrase in this sentence, it seems to me, is “a Toronto source.” That suggests to me that these late-breaking Drabek rumors are coming out of Toronto. It may be that that is happening because Drabek is who Toronto wants, not who Toronto is likely to get. All these wildly conflicting rumors and head-scratching scenarios (Lee to the Mariners for two prospects) suggest to me that maybe a deal was in place along the lines originally reported yesterday, Halladay went to Philly to negotiate and take his physical, and then Toronto changed its demands. You can imagine them saying: “We changed our minds. We don’t want Aumont. You can keep him. We want Drabek and Taylor or Happ and Brown.” Think about it: before news leaks and that 72-hour negotiating period begins, most of the leverage is with the Phillies, who have Cliff Lee under contract for next year. After the news leaks and the 72-hour clock starts ticking, Toronto holds a lot more cards: the pressure on Amaro to make this deal is now enormous. I think (hope!) that when things settle down and when (if) the deal is finalized, it will be much less one-sided than it appears now. The most important piece of information we lack right now is not the names of the prospects involved–it’s who’s leaking, and why.
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@SportSavant: regarding the reliability of twitter, I have come to sympathize quite a bit with the Iranian government’s position over the last 24 hours.
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Andrew Cleve: we should start to make a list of the names of players and prospects NOT mentioned in this trade. Invariably- THOSE are the guys to be traded! hahaa
Hamels, Savery, Worley and Gose traded….
we keep Lee. this is completely absurd -but laughable, in the “im really nervous that we’re getting hosed” type of way
JAYSON STARK on ESPN RADIO at 8:20am
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I must be the only one that loves this trade.
As I see it we got Halladay for Knapp, Donald, Marson and Carasco
the prospect swap of
Drabeck for Aumont
I think we took a slight hit on that one, Drabeck has a bit better upside then Aumont. (Just like Halladay is slightly better then Lee)
Gillies for Taylor all though 2 different types of players, gillies seems to be the table setter that we never had. He is the on base guy that would fit in great with this team.
D’Arnaud for Juan Ramirez – I like Ramirez arm and he has top of the rotation stuff.
This does leave us very thin at the C position and it would have been nice to sign the kid we drafted out of oregon, but Ruiz is solid for the next 3 to 4 years.
This also locks up the ace and hopefully allow us to project our budget out and we can keep, Howard, Wyerth, Rollins, Utley and Hamels. This Lineup is uilt for the next 3 to 5 years.
I love what the phillies have done, and yes I would have liked to keep drabeck but we limited the impact on our system.
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The speculation is fun. But I am amazed at all the distrust of the Phillies front office. What,exactly, has this crew done to deserve that? It is not exactly Ed Wade running the show anymore. Instead it is the crew that largely built this farm system. Have we eraloy forgotten so quickly the way things used to be.
Would I prefer Halladay, Lee, and Hamels in the Phils rotation next year? Absolutely.
Does the fact that this fantasy seems unlikely mean that Amaro, Gillick, et al. are complete idiots? Hardly.
One thing is for certain: Amaro has guts.
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the cupboards are open and are being emptied. Please do not trade away all our key minor league personnel !
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Exactly Dean. I have my reservations, too, but the level of hysteria here makes me want to leap to Amaro’s defense. E.g., this:
“Deal #2: Lee –for– Gillies + Aumont
This is, somehow, even worse than Deal #1. A toddler could shop Lee on the open market and get a better deal for him than this. The M’s clearly win this deal; in fact, it might be the most lopsided trade I can remember.”
Absurd. Now, in fairness when that was written it wasn’t known that Juan Ramirez was part of the deal. But that’s really a heck of a deal, especially if one accepts that you have to move Lee to get Halladay. Put it this way – the Phillies get IMO a better package of prospects than they gave up to get Lee in the first place, with 1/3 a season of Lee, and a WS appearance that might not (probably would not) have happened otherwise thrown in to the deal.
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I mean, did anyone actually do some, you know, research, into the Mariner prospects? Aumont is high risk but still a heck of a prospect & former first round pick, Ramirez is their second best pitching prospect after Aumont, and Gilles is coming off a heck of a season in high A as a 20 year old – his upside may be higher than Taylor’s.
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Well – filling out my top 30 is going to get a lot easier with half our top 10 being traded away.
Come on Rube – Trade Blanton if you want to save the money. Those M’s prospects are NOT worth Lee. So trade Blanton, and drop Durbin to hit your magic number. We could have Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Happ, and Kendrick as our starting 5 for one year. That’s a pretty devastating 5 to go with our line-up.
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If the Seattle deals turns out to be Lee for Aumont, Ramirez, Gilllies that does not seem to be a bad haul. My reservations would be that these are young players, far from the show, which makes it harder to project if they’ll actually turn into anything. I would also prefer some sort of infield prospect, esp., if we are going to ship D’Arnaud to Toronto. But that said, as a cost-cutting move is pretty good — but as PP said, why Seattle (if none of these are going to Toronto)? Are there other teams that could offer something more competitive? I’m looking at you, Angels.
If the Toronto deal turns out to be Halladay for Drabek, Taylor, and D’Arnaud it suggests to me that the powers that be have reevaluated Drabek and dropped him a notch — perhaps they are concerned over his ability to get lefthanders out. But make no mistake this IS a different package than this past summer of Drabek, Brown, Happ and Gose — you could argue that this is significantly cheaper.
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I see that Aumont and Gillies are both Canadian, which is what some say the Blue Jays want anyway. J.C. Ramirez, which I believe he goes by is a Nicaraguan.
The non-tendering of Blanton and Chad Durbin in lieu of the Lee end of the deal is a very good idea. The alleged return for Lee would look better as a return for Blanton, Happ, and Domonic Brown—who it was rumored way back to be taking Physicals early yesterday (or was it?) or was that made up or a lie?
Maybe it is : Phillies get: Halladay, J.C. Ramirez
Blue Jays get: D’Arnaud, Aumont, Gillies
Mariners get: Blanton, Happ, D. Brown
Nothing is official yet. Above makes sense , because it is a true 3 team trade with reasonable values and attachments.
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***It is not exactly Ed Wade running the show anymore. Instead it is the crew that largely built this farm system. Have we eraloy forgotten so quickly the way things used to be.***
Ed Wade and Mike Arbuckle were they crew that built the phillies that won the world series, and hired uncle charlie…the current crew drafted drabek, donald, knapp, taylor, and D’arnaud…would rather have blanton instead of lee, and is currently tearing down the farm system they built up in 2006-2008 by crying “poor” when the gate receipts coupled with concessions X 3,600,693 and 102.2% capacity far surpasses the $140,000,000 budget…merchandise, advertising, tv deals should have the team taking in well north of $300,000,000 a year…Also 1 of the 7 owners did sell part of his personal business for 3 BILLION a few years back…while the team is not cheap, it is far from poor, just unwilling to do what is necessary to put the best team on the field next year.
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I’m surprised people are so negative here. Personally, I love the deal, at least as much as you can without seeing all the details.
Basically, we’re swapping Lee for Halladay, plus a small cost in prospects. The latter cost isn’t yet known, but it’s pretty clear that Seattle’s role here is to bear the brunt of the cost in prospects that Toronto wants, so we’ll be giving up a lot less than we would if we just did Halladay straight up.
I think people are forgetting how much better having Halladay is than having Lee. Let’s see:
(1) Consistency — Halladay has been an excellent pitcher for a long time, while Lee has had 1.5 excellent years. Now they were very good years, but no better than Halladay’s typical season. Lee’s 2009 postseason isn’t likely to happen again.
(2) The Future — Halladay will reportedly sign an extension of around 3 years / $60 million. That is a HUGE discount relative to what he would get in free agency, both in dollars but most importantly in years, which is critical when dealing with older pitchers. Lee didn’t want to sign with the Phillies, at least not at a discount.
(3) Groundball/Flyball – Lee’s career number is 0.89. Admittedly that’s been better the last 2 years (1.31 and 1.13), but nothing compared to Halladay’s career 2.26, or the 2.00 and 1.71 he’s posted the last 2 years. I’d rather have one of the best groundball pitchers in the league in CBP.
While obviously the deal can’t be assessed until all the details are out, I’d say the Phillies are clear winners.
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This still stinks. What about third base in the future. What if there is a major injury or two or three. You used all your bullets. Why not worry about next year next year. It isn’t like
the Phillies won’t be a FA draw. Oh god i have a headache.
PS this restinks of payback to Lee for not signing.
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question….is there ANY chance that the phillies are going to get a “prospect to be named later” from the Ms and in june, that prospect will be Dustin Ackley? they can’t trade him yet, because they just drafted him, but they can name him the prospect to be named later in june when he has been a pro for a year. THAT would make the trade much better
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there are so many names being thrown around that it is hard to make a judgment at this point. let’s see how this plays out and then we can bash/cheer the decision.
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tomphilly– There’s a lot more to the budget than the payroll of the players.
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I will wait to pass judgment on this deal, but if it’s anything close to what I’ve been reading about, I think Ruben is off his freaking rocker. But he’s surprised me at the last minute before, so I’ll hold off commenting until the trade is finalized.
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If this move is for the future how good is it really for the staff as a whole? If Halladay does sign a 3 year extension(plus vesting options) then we have him at a cost of 4 years and 69.5 million(after toronto provides 6 mil) or 17.375 mil a year. John Lackey just signed for 17 million, i think the cliff lee rumors about salary demands are false…17 million is now his market number, why not offer him a 4 year 68 million extension, meaning we would have him locked up for 5 years and 77 million dollars total, or 15.4 million dollars a year. This would give us Halladay & Lee in their PRIME. We have the money to do this because next year Moyer and his 6.5 million come off the books & Hamels will be going into the last year of his contract here at 9.5 million dollars…does anyone think we can lock Hamels, at age 27, up for 17 million dollars a year??? He is a California kid and 2 of the highest spending franchises will be looking for a front of the rotation starter in his back yard with a view to the beach. The smart money is on Lee long-term, Hamels will walk away, or at the very least command CC type money since he will be 2 years younger when he hits the open market, plus 150 LBS lighter…27 with potential. Lee long term is more affordable, I think 2012 leaves us with Halladay and little else currently, since lee, hamels, & blanton will all be gone by then…at least with lee locked up, we would be able to rely on the best RH/LH top 2 in the game, and any series in the fall would be tipped in our favor until 2014, 2015…
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G$—I am aware the payroll of the team is not the operating budget, i know about the draft, international, scouting, personnel, etc…I also know LHV & Reading are major draws all summer long, as are lakewood and clearwater, I know our 2 “spring training” games at the ‘bank’ each april steal a little extra cash from the fans…and I know a rival GM was recently quoted saying you would be “AMAZED” how much the phillies still collect from revenue sharing, rather than pay in like the yankees. While I think the lack of a salary cap undermines competition in MLB, the yankees spend money to make money, they realize the more popular you become the more money you make…the red sox did not become “RED SOX NATION” until they grasped this concept, picked up petey martinez and man ram, and spent the money they knew they would make off competing with the big boys.
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Reading these comments makes me laugh. I think there are two important things the majority of people here are forgetting:
1. Unless you’re signing a free agent, you need to give something to get it.
2. This is freaking ROY HALLADAY we’re talking about.
I don’t blame baseball fans outside of Canada, especially National League fans, but the bottom line is that Halladay is a stud and one of a few TRUE aces in the game. Had Halladay been playing for the Sox, Yanks or even the bloody Cubs throughout his career, he would have been a multiple Cy Young winner and likely regarded as the best pitcher of this decade.
Furthermore, he keeps himself in impeccable shape and, save for a couple freak injuries, is rarely hurt. He’s a stand up guy, a guy who impacts every other pitcher on the staff. Ask AJ Burnett. He’ll probably tell you that Doc was the biggest influence on AJ becoming a better, more consistent pitcher because Halladay instilled his work ethic into AJ. You can’t expect to give up a couple mediocre prospects to get Roy Halladay.
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“so the phils are going to give up…
carrasco,donald,marson,knapp,taylor,drabek,d`arnaud,lee for halladay? wow amuro is getting hosed should have just done it at the last deadline buddy”
I’m sorry, but this logic is idiotic. Getting an ace like Lee for a playoff run is not going to be cheap. The Brewers gave up Matt LaPorta and more for 2 months of CC Sabathia a few years ago. Just because we didn’t win the world series, doesn’t mean the trade doesn’t count.
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The more I read it seems like Ramierz may be the best prospect the Phillies are getting back. Can he be like a Carlos Zambrano without the mental breakdowns and hitting skills?
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Phils may be giving up more than Lee for Ramirez, Aumont and Gillies. I sure hope not.
If Halladay passes the physical his deal is done. 3/60 extension. great deal. Taylor is blocked anyway. Drabek is a crap shoot and we have an Ace for 4 years.
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@YOUREGETTINGROYHALLADAY: Welcome Canadians! I think that is the first time I’ve seen the word “bloody” used as a defamatory adjective on this site. Most of the time, Philadelphians use the word much more literally, as in, “Fat man, if you mention that Ferguson Jenkins trade one more time I’m going to beat you bloody.”
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Why do people keep saying that “we are getting Roy Halladay, so be happy”? Yea well we lost Cliff Fing Lee, who is a legit ACE…just like Halladay. I realize Halladay is better, but the return we are getting for our ACE is mind-boggling.
I don’t like this deal, we need MUCH more from the M’s. I can’t believe as of right now, we aren’t getting one of Saunders/Morrow/Truinfel. It is absurd. Aumont could be our future closer, but he comes with an inherent risk…much like Knapp in the original Lee deal. We stole that first deal, and now it looks like the M’s are stealing Lee from us.
There has to be more to this deal. I refuse to believe that Amaro would screw us over this bad. We are overpaying slightly for Halladay (which in my mind is fine), but we are getting underpaid tremendously for Lee…which is not fine at all. You don’t give up having a 1-2-3 of Halladay/Lee/Hamels for a sh***y return.
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And I apologize for my language, I thought it would get ****’d out.
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So it looks like the final deal is Aumont, Ramirez and Gilles. And we’re losing Drabek, Taylor and D’Arnaud.
Im still waiting until all of this is confirmed by multiple sources/the teams themselves before writing up analysis of this deal. I figure that getting complete information and doing a complete analysis is better than half-assing it.
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I keep checking my calendar, this must be April 1st and this trade is the worst April Fools joke ever. Say it ain’t so Rueben, say it ain’t so.
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Latest news from ESPN has Halladay contract completed and is undergoing a physical as I type this. The deal(s) should be announced today.
Still don’t know the players involved but I’ll comment later when it’s announced.
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It’s a shame we have such POS owners – just when we we’re starting to like them too. Hey, thanks for the $5 a seat incease you *************. Hopefully you be able to still command that much when the team is in rebuilding mode.
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If they were going to have to give up Drabek, Taylor and D’Arnaud, why not do the deal with Toronto straight up? And keep Lee for a year. I know. They didn’t want to bust their salary structure by $9 million. For that amount, they gave up a sure world series title.
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It is a good deal.. 2 separate trades:
Lee Deal:
Marson, Carrasco, Donald, and Knapp for Ben Francisco, Ramirez, Aumont, Gilles and a World Series Appearance
Halladay Deal:
Taylor, Drabek, D’Arnaud for 4 years of Roy Halladay
If you look at the 1st part (cliff Lee) we probably got better prospects than we dealt, got in the world series, and have a good utility outfielder
If you look at the 2nd part (Halladay)… we got one of the top 5 pitchers in baseball (Lincecomb, Felix, CC, Lee?) for the next 4 seasons… Drabek may be great… or he may not. Taylor may be a stud.. or may not… Plus, the quality of prospects we gave usually would get 1/2 a season of a stud at the trade deadline and we get 4 years….
I think we win both parts of the deal. Its not like we got back lousy prospects in the Lee deal… plus Francisco has value for our team.. especially with Raul getting older
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Sorry for the really bad grammer in the last post. I’m furious right now.
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I am of mixed opinion, however, once I think all of it through, the deals appear reasonable and rational. Considering we do still have a decent amount of upper-end prospects and the need to go for it in 2010-2011, in the end, I am reluctantly in favor of them.
While it is difficult to let go of a prospect that projects as an ace and that is under your control for the next 4-6 years, remember that the Phillies have to play to win championships (I can’t believe I just wrote those words) for 2010 and 2011, as Ruiz, Howard, Utley, Rollins, and Werth are all 30 and Victorino is 28. Howard, Hamels, Lidge, Madson, Rollins, Victorino and Ibanez are all FAs in 2012. Taylor would have been blocked until 2011 at the earliest.
We did not empty the cupboard. We still have Colvin, Schreve, May, Cosart, Worley and others that have upside, and now, apparently Aumont and Ramirez. We still have Brown and Gose, and now Gillies. I, like everybody, would have liked to get Triunfel, but who knows if that was a possibility. It appears that from whatever was available, the Phils reasoned they would be better off obtaining pitching and a potential leadoff hitter.
As for dealing Lee, the number of teams that would deal high-end prospects for an ace are limited right now. Off the top of my head, only the Yankees (who just acquired Granderson), Seattle and the Angels have the money, prospects and need/desire. It was rumored that the Angels were the 3rd team, so perhaps they backed out because they did not want to give up so much for Lee. Seattle may very well have been the Phils only option.
While it is clear these are financial decisions, but it may work out better for the Phils. If Halladay goes on the open market next year and the Yankees offer $22-$25 mil a year, we have done better. Lee wants to test FA or get something like a $17-$20 mil/year deal long-term, which the Phils were not prepared to do. It certainly was possible the Phils sign neither Lee, nor Halladay, and then they would have simply stuck without an ace for 2011. The Phils have offered long-term deals to position players (that thankfully did not take them — Soriano, Carlos Lee), but not pitchers. Halladay’s rumored deal actually helps the Phils going forward, considering the value and length of the deal.
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We just got Roy Halladay but it doesn’t feel good. Drabek, Taylor, D’Arnaud and $6M for Halladay feels like too much. The $6M obviously bought Toronto Drabek instead of Happ or maybe it was Brown and Happ vs Drabek and Taylor and the $6M bought them D’Arnaud. Either way, it feels like a very stiff price to pay to a team that had no other options. Toronto had no other moves to play. Clearly, Toronto comes out of this smelling like a rose and Seattle got an ace for 3 prospects who aren’t nearly as good as the phillies 3 prospects. Do we really need another Gose in Gilles?? It should be a happy day but it doesn’t feel thatw ay. The Phillies now must resign Werth because they no longer Taylor to slide in after this year. Brown will take Ibanez’s spot the year after.
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@dave: Easy Dave, you are talking sense, and we don’t like that around here. If you really want to fit in with the rest of the people who comment on Phuture Phillies, you need to bash the front office and react with shock and disgust every time we trade one of our prospects.
To all of you who are freaking out, trading “Marson, Carrasco, Donald, and Knapp for Ben Francisco, Ramirez, Aumont, Gilles and a World Series Appearance” is a travesty? Are you high?
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Dave,
You can’t separate the deals like that. You have to subtract Lee from the equation. They blew a chance for a sure world series title in 2010 by not keeping Lee and just making the Toronto deal.
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Dave, Nice breadown. I just wish Rube would explore what the Angels would be willing to fork up for Lee. I really think the Phils could’ve got Truinfel or Rowan-Smith in the package if they showed some patience.
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Why not make the Doc trade last trade deadline like I suggested then? We would have won the world series with Doc and Lee
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@JeffS: Thereby leaving the farm system bare. Which everyone here would have freaked the heck out about.
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Also, can we please stop saying “guaranteed World Series title” if we kept both. The playoffs are a crap shoot. Even with Lee and Halladay and the ghost of Walter Johnson, there is no such thing as a “guaranteed World Series title”
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I’ve always really liked Aumont and wanted the Phils to draft him, but he was long gone by the Phillies pick. As far as Drabek vs Aumont goes, I don’t think its the significant downgrade many have suggested. I doubt we’re just getting two players from Seattle and if the 3rd is a quality player like J.C. Ramirez, (#5 in the M’s system) then there’s a lot to like about this deal.
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Dave,
Just because we made a great deal for Lee doesn’t mean we should turnaround an give up that value (and more) for Halladay. Look at where we are now: we are gettingone year of Halladay from the Blue Jays (I know we are signing him to an extension but that is not what Toronto brought to the table) and lesser prospects and we are giving up one year of Lee (at a lesser salary than we are pay Roy) AND Drabek AND Taylor AND D’Arnaud. How is this good? We will need those top prospects in a couple of years to keep our payroll under control.9
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If you never felt like Drabek was going to be the ace of a staff, this trade feels a lot better.
You don’t give up the price the Jays were asking last season for a year or two, but if Halladay is willing to extend at a cheaper than open-market price, then you’re trading a No.2-3 starter and two potential players for a front-end, Hall of Fame ace.
I’m o.k. with both ends of the trade, especially if you view them separately.
Looks like if you just look at the prospects exchanged in the deals with Lee (from Philly to Cleveland and from Seattle to Philly), the Phillies might have come out ahead and they were able to get a great half-season from Lee.
The deal for Halladay is a big one, but the parts all make sense. Taylor hurts. There’s no question about it. But Halladay has a chance to heal those wounds if he becomes a 70-80 game winner for the next four years.
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I don’t understand why we couldn’t of gone to Texas. They have some very intriguing prospects, and were willing to give up Feliz and Smoak for Josh Johnson! They were after Halladay at the trade deadline, and I believe he even rejected a trade there. Why not see what they would offer to Cliff Lee?? Especially with the threat of him going to the Mariners in their own division! Hell go after the Angels and Oakland as well…both of which have superior farm systems to the Mariners!
Ruben! What the hell is going on?? Gillick better not have told you to do this trade as some kind of favor to the Mariners!
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With Halladay and Lee, they would be favorites to beat the Yankees or Red Sox. With just Halladay, they’ll be clear underdogs.
And yes, the farm system would have taken a hit. But that’s not why the made the Lee deal. It was a salary dump.
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Regardless of whatever everyone says, this deal doesn’t put us over the top. PERIOD!
Our bullpen still stinks, we still don’t have a legit bat off the bench. Doing a deal like this makes sense if we can at least keep Lee, but without him, it doesn’t.
Hope we all enjoy next year, because after that, it’s barron. And to the person who said Worley is a prospect, I just keep laughing.
F the Phillies – It’s 1997 all over again.
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So now our top ten list probably includes like 4 guys from the 2009 draft? Sad face.
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@Matt: It is this kind of attitude exactly that is downright embarrassing. That’s right, embarrassing. We won the World Series two years ago. We were one shut down inning from Brad Lidge away from maybe winning back to back, and you say “F the Phillies”? Seriously?
It amazes me how clueless people can be. These decisions are not made in a vacuum. Payroll matters. There are so many forces at work here that you can’t even hope to understand. Before you say “F the Phillies” think about what life is like as a Pirates fan or a Royals fan. Hell, think what life is like as a Cubs fan. But you probably can’t relate, because you aren’t even a fan. If you were a fan, you would never say something asinine like “F the Phillies.”
It’s a shame that you aren’t the GM Matt. And the rest of you that are so damn smart. If we had mental giants like you in charge, we’d have Hall of Famers at every position, a sub-100 million dollar payroll and a farm system stocked with the likes of LaPorta and Weiters. Oh, and the hot dogs at CBP would taste better and beer would only cost $.50.
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Ken,
Problem is.. when Lee walks in a year (and he would have had big $$ bids from the ANgels, Yankees, Sox, Mets, etc…)… what does our staff look like? Yeah we get back 2 picks but the picks would be years away from doing anything.
With the Halladay deal, we have an ace for the next 4 years.. and at least 2 years of Cole. Without the deal we have 2 years of Cole and maybe a chance to sign Lee or Halladay
I dont think they thought they could afford both Lee an Halladay.. plus the trade I assume should give us more flexibility to rebuild the bullpen
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I know its hard to deal with the fact that the Phillies have to be money conscience…but we are not the Yankees…we saw that up close and personal in Oct./Nov. The thing is though, you can not call the Philles cheap when they are agreeing to pay a pitcher $20 million a year! They be dumping some payroll but that is a major financial commitment of the magnitude that this organization has never before even considered. We all wanted them to pay big for Burnett or Lowe last year and if they had it would have been around 15mill/per. Doesn’t this look better?
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So basically we MIGHT be getting
Phillipe Aumont- a furthur developed Jason Knapp
Tyson Gilles- a poor mans Domonic Brown with more speed
J.C. Ramirez- a possibly better version of Carlos Corraasco, if developed right
If those are the prospects we get from seattle for cliff lee thats better than what we gave up for him
now what we might possibly giving up
Kyle Drabek
Micheal Taylor
Travis D’Arnaud
Now if you were asking Phillies fans if they would do this deal with the three players listed above for halladay i bet 80% of the fans would be all for it.
Sure we are giving up drabek a possible ace, would I have liked to have given up gilles and aumont in the place of drabek and taylor, of course I wouldve but thats not how things might work out. I still hope somehow Rueben pulls drabek out and sticks in aumont but its only a fool’s dream i guess. Aumont I believe has the chance to become a legit #2 guy down the road and will probably start off at Reading next year like Drabek did last year. Juan Ramirez will most likely start off at clearwater where he still needs to hone his skills. He is a raw talent and needs to be coached to truly unleash his potential. I hope that Gilles will continue on putting the numbers he put up last yr and not revert back to former years
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um, 1997 again? that’s funny, i don’t recall them going into the season in 1997 as favorites to REPEAT AS NL CHAMPIONS FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT YEAR. sorry for the caps, but this deal hinges on the same things that not making this deal does – Lidge returning to his career averages in terms of numbers, and Hamels being good. they are the best team in the NL going into the year oh woah is us.
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Sigh, so much of this is so predictable. People here are so in love with Phillies prospects that people scream at any deal involving them, save for the moist lopsidedly favorably deals (e.g., Lee last year), which are going to be rare.
Mind you, I don’t love the deal myself. On the Halladay side of the deal, my main reservation is that the Halladay contract will severly limit the Phillies options in 2011-2013. But I seem to be in the minority on that point. And otherwise I think it’s fine, as much as I wish the price was lower. I don’t think Drabek is going to be a #1 and apparently neither do the Phillies.
The Lee side of the deal is better. I don’t see how you can call the prospects the Phillies are receiving marginal. (For one thing, while Gillies is no sure thing, can you imagine how excited people here would have been if a Phillies 20 year old prospect put those kind of numbers up in high A? And he is probably the third best prospect in the deal.)
That said, non-tendering Blanton instead of trading Lee would have led to a much better team next year, albeit at a cost in prospects (the Seattle prospects vs a number one pick, assuming Lee is type A and Blanton type B).
A questino on Gillies – is Seattle’s high A team’s park a hitters park, and league a hitters’ league? It look like maybe so from the overall team stats. If so, that adds a reservation. If not … Gillies looks like a guy who could be the best pure leadoff hitter the Phillies have had in my lifetime. And I am no spring chicken. Granted, he is just 20 and hasn’t played above high A.
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Those of you who are open-minded about this deal, please read Andy Martino’s most recent post: http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies_zone/
It’s interesting to note that many baseball people aren’t that wild about Taylor or Drabek. But of course, we’d never let the facts get in the way of a good freak out.
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oh and it wouldve been nice if instead of aumont we got brandon morrow..but thats again a pipe dream
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Jak440 – You’re completely missing the point. This deal does not put them over the top, so what’s the point of doing the deal? Nobody will be able to convince me that Lee + Drabek + Taylor < Halladay. It's just not going to happen.
Since you asked, I would keep Lee and not make this deal, since it's obvious that payroll constraints would not allow them to keep both Lee and Halladay – I get it. At the same time, we don't know the Phillies ownership's profit margin requirement, and how it relates to the rest of baseball. But I'm getting the feeling that Rube doesn't want to make the Lee portion of the deal, but is being forced by the 82 year olds who run this team to do so.
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Yeah Jak440 – Eastern League Player of the year, in a half a season, in a tough league. Yeah, you’re right, he’s overrated.
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@Matt: No, you’re completely missing the point. Let me say this verrry slowly. We just signed Roy Halladay to a contract extension. Cliiiffff Leeeeee waaasssnnn’ttt goooiiinnnggg tooo siiigggnnn.
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Sorry for so many messages – I’ll try to keep them in one post from now on.
But Lee will not be getting 23-25 million in the next offseason, it just won’t happen. Wouldn’t you rather have Lee @ $20M, and a cheap Drabek (who could potentially replace Cole when he gets too expensive), and a cheap Taylor (for when Werth gets too expensive). But hey, I live in a fantasy dream where the Phillies have a $1B payroll, right?
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matt I agree that david montgomery is a idiot and probably cornered rueben…. butlook at it as twi seperate deals
we got back more than what we gave up for lee after renting him out for half a season and the playoffs
we gave up for halladay what 80% of the fans wouldve gave up for halladay anyway
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jak440 – We’ll never really know that. All he said was he was going to test the market. I honestly don’t believe he would have commanded more than $20M in the offseason.
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dominic brown will replace werth and besides the phillies are going to have to put out one of these days…..and stop being money pinchers especially after raising ticket prices
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I saw Drabek pitch at the end of July and once in August. He was tired and out of gas.
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I don’t get “putting them over the top” I guess. They’re the best team in the National League, figure to get better performances from Hamels and the bullpen, and were just in a second straight world series. A series, by the way, they were a Lidge implosion and some hitting from winning against the Yankees.
If you’re concerned with them being better than the Yankees/Red Sox this coming year, exchanging Lee for Halladay is virtually a wash – but Halladay’s value is that he’s going to keep them in the conversation of being a world series team for the length of his deal – it’s improving on just next year.
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At the end of the day, this ownership group didn’t want to spend $9/M to have a MUCH greater chance of making and competing in the WS (Yes Jak, nothing is 100% – all we can do it play the odds)
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Tom – I’m referring to putting them over the top in terms of winning the WS. Sure, they’ll be in the conversation with Halladay, but I don’t think it will be enough to win the series if you were to play it 100 times (anyone can win on a fluke).
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Taylor’s overated on this board for sure. By a lot. I will say this – if you think that Taylor is like Willie Mays, only a little better, as half the people around here apparently do, then yes, it’s a bad deal.
Here is a fun exercise for you – admittedly not entirely fair, but interesting to say the least – compare Gillies as a 20 year old in high A with Taylor as a 21 year old in SS A.
He’s a decent prospect. And if he was 2 years younger putting up the same numbers in the same leagues, then I would be pretty darn excoted about him. But if that was the case, you can bet he wouldn’t be traded.
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I still can’t believe this deal isn’t including a guy like Morrow or Downs (it should be both). Clearly our BP took a hit last season, especially Lidge. Both have closed before, and Morrow has electric stuff. Our WS chances were hurt greatly by Lidge, and I really can’t say I believe he can get the job done next season. I think this deal HAS to include a reliever, and I am hoping that the actual deal has yet to be released.
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LArry,
No 1 said Taylor was Willie Mays…he is the next Dave Winfield…which is pretty damn good.
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Now that I’ve had time to think about it, the trades do seem to do what is best for the team.
We need money to combat the inclusion of Halladay and our need for some bullpen arms. If the money is from Seattle we have to take into account that $6 million is more than just a handful of ‘prospects’. I’m going to assume that Seattle were one of the few teams that were willing to give the club so much money.
Drabek and Taylor hurt, but even though they’re two favorites from the system we can’t forget that they also haven’t even stepped out on a major league diamond yet and anything can happen.
Halladay for 3/4/5 years is a win. No matter how you chalk it up. It’s a win.
We still have Cole Hamels and I just can’t believe that a perfectionist like Cole will let himself have another season like last. He’ll be back and better than ever. A top two of Doc and Hamels should be enough to take care of things in the playoffs.
We can hope though that we get a bit more from Seattle.
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I think your argument has some conflicting logic then. Ideally, we all wanted to keep Lee. But the best chance the team ever had of winning the World Series next year has always been Hamels pitching like he did in 2008 and Lidge pitching to his career averages (asking for another 2008 would be asking too much), which is really just players getting better and developing. You can’t discount that they won’t play better next year, and then turn around and tag Drabek and Taylor as guys who will continue to develop and improve and help the team in 2010 or 2011 if not just because they’ve never seen any actual Major League time. That’s not exactly what you’re saying, but the underlying implication is there.
As currently constructed this team remains a team that should, baring significant injury, make the playoffs and is good enough to win the world series. The playoffs are such a crapshoot that’s all you can ever really say or hope for. This deal is about not endangering that fact and making the team better over the next 4 years in addition to that.
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Let’s also hope there’s a Halladay mentor effect on Hamels with work ethic, approach etc – as there was with Burnett (a head case himself until Halladay took him under his wing). Any chance Halladay can teach Cole how to throw a cutter?
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But you know most of this is debatable – despite the above post from me regarding Taylor, I really do understand the reluctance to trade Taylor, who could be an all star (though probably won’t be).
What really gets me are the people who seem to think that Lee was signable at a price and (more importantly, contract length) that the Phillies would have (or should have) even remotely considered. Lee is going to get a 9 figure deal for at least 5 years, book it, unless he get injured this coming year.
Frankly people that delusional (yes matt, I’m talking about you) shouldn’t be allowed to post here.
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Let me get this straight:
We flipped Lee for better prospects to ease the hit on the farm from acquiring the best pitcher in baseball who’s willing to sign with the Phillies at a significant discount because he wants to win.
…and yet a lot of people are upset.
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Payroll certainly does matter. I get that. But after so many absolutely putrid decades of baseball we’ve had to sit through, we finally have a truly great, historically great team, and we couldn’t keep both Halladay and Lee because of Joe Blanton’s salary?
Fans pack the place every night. It is just hard to hear that we blew a chance at a Doc, Lee, Hamels rotation because of money. I realize we are not the Yankees, and I wouldn’t want to be. But these opportunities only come around once in a very long while. Lee would have walked after next year and we would have cut payroll then. Blanton as well I believe. I’m just disappointed. I can’t believe we just got Halladay and I feel very bittersweet about the whole thing.
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Tom
“As currently constructed this team remains a team that should, baring significant injuries”
What you are saying is Ruben has now put the team in a position of being “LUCKY”. As I remember injuries come where you least expect them and where you least want them.
All the eggs are in one basket or maybe a paper bag. The farm system has been raped for little or no gain.
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What i am shocked about is i thougt the Phils were using Seattle’s prospects to lessen the burden on their own system. So I ask, why not ship those prospects to Toronto; 2 of which are Canadian born? I am hopeful the reason is the Phils are as high on what they are getting from Seattle as what they are shipping out. Perhaps their evaluation of Drabek and Taylor has slipped a little. Maybe they just like Gillies and Aumont the same or more?? I just want it to be final to hear some answers to questions.
I love Roy Halladay, but still have concerns about the pen and the back of the rotation. I wonder if Jamie Moyer’s contract has precluded us from keeping Cliff Lee. If that is the case, that is a tough pill to swallow.
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Wow. Baseball is supposed to be fun. So is winning.
If you are agitated by two consecutive WS appearances or if the biggest blockbuster trade(s) in recent memory is not exciting and fun, maybe–for your own sake–you should get a new hobby.
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“No 1 said Taylor was Willie Mays…he is the next Dave Winfield…which is pretty damn good.”
Haha, talk about proving my point. 🙂 Made my day.
Winfield had 3 ML seasons under his belt at the same age that Taylor was last year. True not at the level that he would achieve (though better than the raw numbers indicate in context) – his breakout year was at age 24, and he then kept getting better and better. You can’t project ANY minor leaguer, and I mean ANY, to have that kind of career, but if you’re going to even play that game it needs to be someone about 2 years younger than Taylor is, playing the same way at the same level.
Taylor could be good and even an all star, but the chance of him being the next Winfield is … zero. His UPSIDE is maybe half the player that Winfield was.
And yes, if you think Taylor is going to be the next Winfield, then trading him for .. well basically almost anybody – is irrational. But that belief is … I’m sorry, crazy.
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@Tom
It’s funny, I’ve wanted Hamels to learn a cutter for over a year now…Halladay would be the perfect person to teach him how to throw it. And I hope to god that some of Halladay’s work ethic, and gameday routine rubs off on Hamels. Hamels would be scary to face with 4 pitches, including that devastating change, and a work ethic like Halladay.
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That’s not untrue though. If Sabathia or Burnett gets hurt, you can’t tell me the Yankees win the AL for certain. If we lose Utley for Werth for the season, we’re almost certainly not winning the World Series even with Lee and Halladay, or with Drabek and Taylor. There is an inherent need for decent luck in baseball like all sports. I’m not saying Amaro has put them in a position to win if they get GOOD luck, I’m saying baring BAD luck they should be there when it all shakes out at the end. As a GM I don’t know how you can do much more without an unlimited payroll.
You can’t make the argument this trade makes the 2010 Phillies any worse (they get marginally better, like one more WAR I think if you play by those metrics), and they were already the favorites in the NL. What am I missing here? This is a deal with the long term mindset first and foremost.
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Jon – Better prospects? Than who?
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It’s funny to read the reactions of the national press – certainly very different than what you see here, but frankly somewhat different than my take as well. Generally people seem to like the Halladay side of the deal (from the Phillies perspective) but like the Lee side of the deal from Seattle’s perspective.
I’ll say one thing – if the reaction regarding the Lee deal is correct, that makes Cleveland’s deal trading Lee last year look even worse from their perspective. Whatever one thinks of the Lee deal, the Phillies are getting better prospects back than they gave up, plus 1/3 of a year of Lee & a world series appearance.
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I have no problem with this deal. Sure it would have been great to have Lee and Halladay in the rotation for a year together. But if they couldn’t move Blanton and you could only have Lee or Halladay why not get someone who we can have for the next 4-5 yrs. It seemed like Lee was intent on hitting the open market so there is a chance we could have been outbid by other teams. So with Halladay we are getting possibly the best pitcher in baseball for the next 4 yrs at least….don’t forget too…he wants to come here and is taking below market money to play here. That’s the kind of player I want. Sure giving up specifically Drabek is tough. Of course we probably aren’t looking at him objectively since he is “OUR” prospect and there is an obvious bias there. But at least we are getting top level talent in return. The bottom line is our major league team and I think this deal does improve us for the next 4 or 5 years. But as many have brought up, we’re got to start using some home grown players at major league minimum salaries to offset the many big contracts we have.
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“Taylor could be good and even an all star, but the chance of him being the next Winfield is … zero. ”
Um you cant compare age related minor league stats 35 yrs apart…that said, it has just been reported that Taylor will imeediately be shipped to Oakland. Billy BEane sure has faith in Taylor
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Taylor will be traded to Oakland for Brett Wallace after the Halladay deal is official – parts just keep moving…
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To think…could the Phillies have traded Taylor for Wallace….you know since we could use a 3B prospect and all
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Matt — better prospects than we traded for Lee in July. Hence “flipping” him.
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I’m going to pretend like the Dave Winfield comment was never seen.
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Olney reports that the Phils will receive Wallace for Taylor.
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I think it’s pretty clear that we all have different takes on this trade, so I’m calling a truce now! I guess in the end, being able to participate in these types of debates is great – it’s a lot better than figuring out if Dave Doster is good enough for our bench.
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“I’m going to pretend like the Dave Winfield comment was never seen.”
pretend all u want, but when he kicks ass u will regret it
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LancoPhan – Alright! I’m starting to like it a little better if that’s the case.
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I’m relatively new here, but didn’t the master guy design a system of comparing prospects? (Ya know, using math)
can we at least wait and see those numbers before jumping all over the Phillies?
My guess is that a 20-year old who kills the ball in High-A has a darn high rating.
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lancophan you mean the jays are going to trade Taylor for wallace…..and wallace won’t be a third baseman in the majors he’ll be moved out of that spot to 1st base or outfeild like ryan braun was….and no he is not the next ryan braun
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I think he meant the Jays are swapping Taylor for Wallace…
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Note the last sentence in Salisbury’s latest story:
“Phils general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has not taken phone calls in recent days. He has long pursued Halladay. He’s about to get him.”
Although there’s some wiggle room there (maybe he’s sending text messages? deputizing others to leak for him?) it seems pretty clear that the leaks about the names involved in this deal are coming from elsewhere. I still hold out some hope that there might be another piece coming that will make the Lee end of it more palatable. I simply can’t see how the Phils can give up a pitcher of Lee’s caliber without addressing their main remaining offseason need, which is a back end bullpen arm, unless they think Aumont is going to be ready next year.
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Maybe the Wallace/Taylor swap is all part of the bigger deal, just that now Oakland is involved too.
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I saw it on rotoworld.com:
Michael Taylor-OF-Phillies Dec. 15 – 12:09 pm et
ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports that the Phillies are planning on trading outfielder Michael Taylor to the A’s for Brett Wallace.
It has been a crazy couple of days. Taylor was linked to the three-team blockbuster involving Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, but is apparently involved in a totally separate deal. The big 23-year-old hit .282/.359/.491 this past season at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Wallace, 23, batted .302/.365/.505 in 182 at-bats with Triple-A Sacramento after being acquired from the Cardinals.
Source: Buster Olney on Twitter
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Hey getting a 3B of the future would go a long way to make this even more of a win!
Lanco, do you have a link?
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No there is no bigger deal the jays get taylor and swap him for wallace, who is going to fail at third and thus they will move him to 1st or dh http://twitter.com/buster_espn
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Comon LancoPhan, don’t post stuff like that unless you know what you’re talking about.
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I think rotoworld has it wrong. I just read Olney’s tweet and he has the swap between Oak and TOR.
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Thanks Lanco. This is getting insane! So who is actually in the Halladay trade!?
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My last comment on his matter:
Regardless of where each of us may stand on this trade, I think we’ll all happily give it a chance now that it is done. How great is it that the Philadelphia Phillies are now a team that No. 1 aces WANT to pitch for now when they have their choice of teams. Bandbox and all….Go Phils!
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“It is interesting to note that many baseball people aren’t that wild about Taylor or Drabek. But of course, we’d never let the facts get in the way of a good freak out.”
And many baseball people are wild about them. Just this morning I read that one scout said that Taylor was the best hitting prospect he had seen all year. So, the “facts” you cite are not facts, but opinions.
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My analysis of the deal is up. Im locking the comments on this one.
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