Top 30 Update, volume 1

** My Top 30 Prospects

I’m going to try to update the stats for all of the guys on my Top 30 list periodically, maybe once every 3 weeks or so. I figured now was as good a time as any to update. Check below the fold, as its a rather large image.

Depending on your screen resolution, you might want to see a larger version. If so, click here.

What did Pedro Cerrano say in the movie Major League? Have to wake up bats? I agree.

86 thoughts on “Top 30 Update, volume 1”

  4. Why is Swimmer lower than Cisco and Naylor. I think it is very close to being major league read y as a reliever. To me Naylor has taken a step back and Cisco isn’t the pitcher that Swimmer is right now.

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  6. Is pitcher’s being ahead of hitters generally a regular occurrence during the early stages of the season? I’m not particularly knowledgable about developmental trends.

    If so, I guess accross the board we would have to temper our enthusiasm for the spectacular start for pitching and not have to worry too much about the poor start for hitting.

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  9. We’re still in early April, let’s give the hitters some time. But for now, the pitchers are so far ahead of them it’s ridiculous.

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  10. why is D’arby Myers not on your list? he had a great spring training, he had 2 hits off Andy Petit and his avg is over .300. What does he have to do? He should be on that list. He had a bad year last year, but so did a lot of the guys on that list. He deservers it.

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  11. He’s not on that list because it’s my list, and because I didn’t think he was one of our 30 best prospects. He burned me 3 years ago, he’s gone backwards and hasn’t proven anything in a full season league. With a nice year this year, he’ll get consideration.

    Why is Swimmer lower than Cisco and Naylor. I think it is very close to being major league read y as a reliever. To me Naylor has taken a step back and Cisco isn’t the pitcher that Swimmer is right now.

    If you’re going to lobby for someone, you should probably know how to spell their name. Schwimer was lower because he was 2 years older and is a reliever. If you follow my methods here, both of those things get him downgraded in my evaluation system.

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  13. (Raising Hand)

    Nah, I would not have bet that Mattair would be the best hitting prospect, and I’m co-president of his fan club here. But then again, who would’ve though we’d be getting all Knappy Headed either?.

    And as for people who are questioning PP’s ranking – it’s his damn list, he can rank them however he wants, and he spelled out all of his reasons when he posted his Top 30. If he wanted to rank Mike Cisco as his twelfth best prospect, then so be it. (Not that anyone would’ve been *that* stupid.)

    – Jeff

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  16. I think the big point being missed by those who criticize the rankings, especially on D’Arby Myers, is that this list was put together prior to the season and PP said he wasn’t going to re-rank in season. So this doesn’t include what Myers did in ST or April. Myers stank last year and did not deserve to be on a top 30 going into the season. I think he has a world of talent and he was a personal favorite a couple years ago, and I guess he is still a guy I especially root for, but he was really, really bad in 2008.

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  17. Thanks for doing this.

    All – can’t we just appreciate the author’s effort here and not nitpick rankings that would not make sense changing every week or month as each individual prospect has a hot or cold month?

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  19. Myers didn’t deserve to be called a prospect last year. I had a tough time picking my top 30 because from 22 or so to 40 were pretty comparable. Myers wasn’t in the top 40. I think I had Casey Smith ahead of him and he couldn’t break the Mendoza line (just kidding on this one). But a good year, combined with his age, could pop him back up the list.

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  20. ****Why do you have to be so snarky when people are just asking questions PP?***

    ~coughs~

    Its his website…

    ~coughs again~

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  22. I know Cosart has had a great extended spring training. Headed to Jersey in a few weeks

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  26. pp your right I can’t spell. But didn’t know until now what goes into your evaluation of players.

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  27. please help everybody –

    Come tell two Baseball Stadium Haters to go jump in a lake (one is Muhlenberg College professor)

    lvironpigs.wordpress.com

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  28. Carrasco has been great in AAA as well. Great peripherals and 3 good starts. 20/1 K/BB ratio. Pretty pretty good.

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  29. I think it’s safe (very safe) to say that Mattair won’t be our best hitter soon, probably within a week or two. Those walk rates were almost undoubtedly a small sample size fluke, and he’s actually only hitting like .260.

    Unless something changes dramatically, its hard to envision him ever hitting enough to be a legit 3B prospect.

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  30. please help everybody –

    Come tell two Baseball Stadium Haters to go jump in a lake (one is Muhlenberg College professor)

    lvironpigs.wordpress.com

    Those points are valid, and your arguments are needlessly venomous. And this is not a place to spam for your blog.

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  31. Mattair has added some size since last year- his body type is now a lot like a young Scott Rolen. His hitting skills aren’t, but his body is. His approach at the plate looks different too- wide base and low like Bagwell, but with his hands up high. His hitting skills have improved, but he needs a few more adjustments to translate them into power. All in all, i’m pleased that he looks like he’s improving as prospect, and after this year may be ready to be a top 5 prospect.

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  35. People just need to exercise some reading comprehension skills on the posts and we won’t have this issue.

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  36. I think the team may be entertaining some thoughts about Savery as a hitter – that’s not their main goal by a long shot, but it’s on their radar screen. How cool would it be to have a pitcher who can also come in and legitimately pinch hit or take a start at first base. I don’t know how difficult that would be? I really don’t know. It would require him to take extra BP and he’d need to be mentally involved in games in which he might play. But, seriously, my view of this is that it’s baseball, it’s not like playing 40 minutes in the NBA or even getting your body crushed in football. I believe that it’s more than feasible to do this from a physical standpoint. The question is whether it would impede his focus on the pitching.

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  37. Yeah, I’m excited to see what Cosart does this year.

    I didn’t even have Mattair in my top 30….I agree, that many walks is unsustainable, but you don’t get all those walks by free swinging so he has changed his approach at the plate. Hopefully the power will come.

    I would say that as an 18 year old in A ball, Valle is holding his own.

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  39. Savery must be taking BP already maybe it should be a hitter who pitches once in a while. Since he is out of diaper I agree
    for now both. I remember another guy who started out as a pitcher.
    Btw a fact at 22 Ruth pitched 35 complete games out of 38
    that put him about 44th on the modern list . In 90 years
    he has only been topped once by one game and that took
    Bob Feller to do. Therefore in a weird way Ruth the
    pitcher marked the end of the complete game era
    sorry I am Italian and talk too much

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  40. Fish: I would bet everything I have that Travis Mattair is nowhere close to a Top 5 prospect (assuming you mean in the Phillies organization) at the end of this season. I appreciate you being optimistic, but the guy slugged around .330 last year. And plays 3rd Base. Not gonna happen.

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  41. I believe as of right now Mattair is a big disappointment. He was suppose to be a hitter, his numbers just are not good.

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  42. as i said last year unless savery makes a stunning turnaround he will never pitch for the phillies. just watch him it doesnt take a genius to see the guys future if any is as a hitter.

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  44. PP – any word on why DeFratus has been moved to the pen? Is it just an experiment or do they think they have a glut of good starting pitching (which would be absurd)?

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  46. Hey PP, I’d like to nominate Mattair for an upcoming closer look article. Hopefully including 1st half/2nd half splits as well as monthly splits. Mattair won’t be a top 5 phillies prospect by the end of the year, but the kid started pro ball in a full season league out of high school and improved all season long. He may have yet to develop power, but that is traditionally late to develop. He isn’t lighting the world on fire, but he ain’t doing anything to diminish himself as a sleeper prospect pick.

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  48. De Fratus is in the pen because the Phillies think they have a glut of starting pitching, which is somewhat true and it makes sense. His biggest developmental jump is going to be from Lakewood to Clearwater. His role when that jump is made is irrelevant. If he can get A and A+ hitters out consistently, then he’s got a future with a pending position.

    Being in the pen in Lakewood probably hurts his ego a bit or is a bit of a disappointment after a strong showing last season, but it gives him a chance to impress people and quickly get moved to Clearwater as there wouldn’t be much hold-up in terms of finding him a spot.

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  49. “d,armand had 2 doubles for lakeland,monasterous was player of the week for clearwater but i think he got hit last night.”

    What? Are you talking about Travis d’Arnaud? And do you mean Lakewood? Because Lakeland is is the Detroit Tiger’s A+ minor league affiliate and d’armand is a lounge singer in New York who gives vocal lessons. (Thank you, Google)

    Your posts always confuse me… you always spell his name wrong. In the future please get the dude’s name right!

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  50. he might think its funny…

    what’s not funny is that Taylor just got his first and second HRs of the season today, and the latter was a walkoff in the 11th. welcome back!

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  51. “what’s not funny is that Taylor just got his first and second HRs of the season today, and the latter was a walkoff in the 11th. welcome back!”

    Really good to see Taylor with a big game and a couple bombs. Dom Brown also hit one out tonight for Clearwater. We ask the hitters to come alive and tonight they came through for us.

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  52. Taylor has started slow at every other level so far…why should Reading have been any different. Hopefully he turned a corner tonight.

    Someone else who has impressed in the early going: Anthony Gose. He’s really flashing all 5 tools. Perhaps it is a smart move to keep him in CF instead of as a pitcher…

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  53. bisenius and overholt are not helping themsslves much.
    When Taylor gets to the show and starts slowly I hope someone knows(and reacts) to his history. Key series in april
    ya gatta wonder. how can the farm system do so well and ……

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  54. Run down the eras of the top 30 pitchers mighty fine eras
    just got a few who need to get on the field

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  55. See that the No. 21 prospect Bastardo is back in the starting rotation for Sat game. Reading’s rotation now has to be one of the best in AA with Drabek in Florida waiting for warmer weather up north before joining them. They want Bastardo back as a starter to have more innings to work on his secondary pitches. Too many fastballs as a late inning reliever and not enough opportunity to work on his breaking ball and change up according to Schrenk.

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  57. When Mattair was drafted the scouting reports indicated he was raw as a hitter- it was just his early selection and comparison to Scott Rolen that got him higher expectations that weren’t realistic.

    His hit tool isn’t there yet, but his body has developed as they hoped. The ball does pop off his bat with more authority then it did last year, but I think his current stance is hindering the harnass of that power. He’s not pulling the ball either. but there is less to project about his body now-and i think over the course of the season they ought to be able to get him worked out. His tools could make him a top 5, his current ability obviously hinder that- but more or less i was considering that development to occur after this season- as in, sometime next season.

    Defratus style looks more conducive to the pen. he’s a bit of a power 3/4 guy, good slider. I’d be disappointed if he spent the year in Lakewood. He’s good enough that he should be their closer but Rosenberg is that good as well.

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  59. sorry skunky but classes are given daily in interpretive and remedial reading if your confused. ive spent many days in lakeland not lakewood and unfortunatly havent heard d,armand i actually thought he was a magician. thanks for your astute correction. next time ive worked for 14 hours ill be sure not to post.

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  62. I hate all you guys!! 🙂 – I was all set to come into this post and mention Taylor, Brown (and mention how they both gave us a “take that” as we discussed what little the hitters had done), and also Gose (who NEPP beat me to)- . I gotta stay up later at night:-)

    But you are spot on for Gose. VERY small sampling but he’s a real young kid who’s putting up some very well rounded numbers so far.

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  63. I’ve been impressed with Gose so far, he’s shown much better contact skills and power than I thought he would being 18 in the SAL. That along with his supposed plus D, plus plus speed and plus plus arm I’d say the Phils made the right move keeping him in the OF.

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  64. QUOTE:
    sorry skunky but classes are given daily in interpretive and remedial reading if your confused.

    How about grammar and English?

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  65. Okay, everyone – play nice. Let’s have a spirited but polite discussion. Remember, we all like the same team.

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  66. That joke wasn’t any funnier the fourth time. It wasn’t even applicable- your misspelling of a prospect’s name every single time that you post about him has absolutely nothing to do with my reading comprehension skills.

    I was just asking you to spell check a little bit before you leave accidentally incorrect posts. It won’t be that hard for you to type “d’Arnaud” instead of “d,armand” all the time- its the same number of key strokes.

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  67. really is a shame to see Kyle Slate go down with the labrum surgery. I know alot of people were expecting big things from him this season in Lakewood. hopefully the rehab goes well

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  68. Knapp comes in at Number 2 on the BA Hot Sheet, with Carrasco at Number 9. Knapp’s the highest I can remember ever.

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  70. KG also has some nuggets on BP about Knapp, Carrasco, and Drabek. Mentions Drabek would be way up in his top 100 and that Knapp at 10 on the Phils prospects was a huge mistake.

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  71. Its not a mistake as you can’t know how an 18 year old is gonna respond in his first full season of pro ball. Just having him in the Top 10 is plenty good.

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  72. BA also had this to say “Double-A Midland SS/2B Adrian Cardenas (Athletics) made three errors in four games at shortstop this week, but his hitting was electric: .440/.500/.760 with three doubles, a triple and a home run, putting him at .364/.417/.600 through 13 games this season”

    Glad he’s still getting some love- Cardenas seemed to kind of fall off the prospect radar after we traded him- wasn’t even on the top 100 (i don’t think)

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  75. they are going to bring him along slowly. His FB is ranging from 93-97 so far. Great to see him strike out A Rod.

    Young talent. This first time ever working with pitching coach.

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  76. shunky I though he was a second basemen. When I looked at the rankings on prospects he was the number one rated second basemen. Unless he is playing with another oakland high rated second basemen, According to a lot of articles that are written there is a lot of love for oakland prospect, They talk like they are the best at talent evaluation in baseball.

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  78. NEPP I was going by position where he was ranked first out of second basemen. I think that’s correct, but we won and blanton even though he pitched okay ,he helped and to me if all three are good major league players it still a good deal

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  80. My bad, I must have missed him when I looked at the rankings a while ago. I thought maybe he got ignored because of all of oakland’s other prospects.

    Either way, I just thought it was interesting that they were playing him at short and that he was horrible in the field.

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  81. He’s playing in the Texas league (which is the Coors Field of minor leagues) but his offensive production is still ridiculous, even with the park factors added into it.

    to mikemike: I was simply clarifying to skunky who thought he wasn’t in the Top 100 anymore.

    Either way, the Blanton trade was worth it.

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  82. Thanks for the clarification….. and i wasn’t implying that the Blanton trade wasn’t worth it at all. I was just big fan of Cardenas and I want to continue to follow him even though he isn’t in a phillies affiliate uniform.

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  83. And i thought it strange that they would try him at short when by most accounts his ranges isn’t even adequate for second.

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  84. Ironically I was just reading a scouting report that stated that he’d likely have to move to 3B or one of the corner OF spots due to his lack of range…odd. Maybe they’re showcasing him for another trade?

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  85. Phillies top 30 propsects – May 2009 by Joey

    *J A Happ, LHP * Phillies – #03/#04
    Antonio Bastardo, LHP Phillies – #03/#04

    #01. Kyle Drabek, RHP
    #02 Michael Taylor OF
    #03. Antonio Bastardo, LHP
    #04 Dominic Brown, OF
    #05. Carlos Carrasco, RHP
    #06. Jason Donald, IF
    #07. Lou Marson, C
    #08 Vance Worley, RHP
    #09. Yohan Flande, LHP
    #10. A. Carpenter, RHP
    #11. Joe Savery RHP
    #12. Carlos Monasterios, LHP
    #13 Travis D’Arnaud, C
    #14 Jason Knapp, RHP
    #15 Michael Stutes, RHP
    #16 Jesus Andino, 3rd Base
    #18 Jeremy Slayden, OF
    #19. Zach Collier, OF
    #20 Kyle Slate, RHP

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  86. i would give up worley, donald, mayberry, bastardo, and maybe carpenter. Marson could be thrown in instead of someone else but i think the phils are deep enough to do this deal without giving up Brown, Taylor, Drabek, Happ, Knapp, or Carrasco. IMO those guys are untouchable no matter what but Carrasco could be expendable for the right deal.

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