I feel like I made a post similar to this one a year ago, but maybe not. Anyway, Tom Verducci, who writes for Sports Illustrated, did a study and found that pitchers under the age of 25 who throw 30 more innings than they did the previous season break down at a fairly high rate. You can read his article here in which he outlines the basic premise. More below the fold…
Here is the gist of his premise…
Why can’t they throw 200 innings? Simply put, they’re not conditioned for it yet. It’s like training for a marathon. You need to build stamina incrementally. The unofficial industry standard is that no young pitcher should throw more than 30 more innings than he did the previous season. It’s a general rule of thumb, and one I’ve been tracking for about a decade. When teams violate the incremental safeguard, it’s amazing how often they pay for it.
Pitchers generally feel the effects of abusive increases in workload the next year, not the season in which they were pushed. In other words, you might be able to finish that marathon for which you didn’t properly train, but your body will have hell to pay for it. I call it the Year After Effect.
Will Carroll at Baseball Prospectus has confirmed Verducci’s work;
Named for Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated, this is a negative forward indicator for pitcher workload. Verducci, who called this the ‘Year After Effect,’ found that pitchers under the age of 25 who have 30-inning increases year over year tend to underperform. Will Carroll independently found that pitchers who break the “Rule of 30” tend to get injured. Carroll renamed this ‘rule’ the Verducci Effect in honor of the man who initially found the evidence.
Before we got to how this impacts Phillies prospects, a few quick notes to save you the trouble of responding in the comments. This is not a hard fast rule. Not every pitcher who violates the Rule gets hurt. But the point is, by having these guys throw these innings, you’re raising the risk level, and when you raise the risk level, there’s a greater chance of getting hurt. When you play Russian Roulette, you don’t always bite the bullet. But by playing the game, you’re risking taking one in the back of the head. I’m not sure how Verducci intended to handle college IP or minors IP, but I think the principles still apply.
So, now that we got that out of the way, let’s address Phillies prospects.
Carlos Carrasco (Age 22); 2008 IP = 151.1 – Rule of 30 number = 181.1
Its highly unlikely that Carrasco will throw more than 180 innings this year, but I suppose its possible should he be called up in September. Because he will be one of the first starters called up, I have to think the Phillies will be responsible with him throughout the season.
Edgar Garcia (Age 21); 2008 IP = 137.1 – Rule of 30 number = 167.1
Garcia is not a candidate for a callup, so he shouldn’t be a candidate to break the rule.
Vance Worley (Age 21); 2008 IP = 172.1 – Rule of 30 number = 202.1
Worley had a heavy workload in college, logging 103 innings in his junior year. He’s not going to make it to Philly, so he should be in line for a 130-150 IP season.
Mike Cisco (Age 21); 2008 IP = 125.1 – Rule of 30 number = 155.1
Cisco didn’t have the same workload as Worley last season, which means he could hit the upper ranges of this rule if he stays healthy and remains in the starting rotation.
Kyle Slate (Age 20); 2008 IP = 27.0 – Rule of 30 number = 57.0 IP
Slate, who everyone loves but who can’t seem to log any innings, is a definite candidate if he is somehow healthy and on the mound from day 1.
Antonio Bastardo (Age 23); 2008 IP = 97.2 – Rule of 30 number = 127.2
Bastardo is interesting. He threw only 23 innings in the GCL in 2006 and then threw 97 innings in 2007. He of course got hurt in 2008 after throwing 96 innings, so he’s already broken the Rule once and gotten hurt.
Justin De Fratus (Age 20); 2008 IP = 83.1 – Rule of 30 number = 113.1
De Fratus has gone one level at a time, and if he gets a full season assignment this year and remains a starter, he’s a definite candidate to go over the mark.
Mike Stutes (Age 21); 2008 IP = 157.2 – Rule of 30 number = 187.2
Stutes logged his share of college innings, and should max out in the same range Worley does in 2009.
Joe Savery (Age 22); 2008 IP = 150.1 – Rule of 30 number = 180.1
Savery won’t be called up, so he shouldn’t have any trouble staying under his number.
Kyle Drabek (Age 21); 2008 IP = 28.1 – Rule of 30 number = 58.1
Drabek is an interesting case, and I’ll touch on him when I cover a bunch of the guys who had very very few innings in 2008.
Rob Roth (Age 20); 2008 IP = 58.1 – Rule of 30 number = 88.1
Roth is a definite candidate here if he remains a starter. If he starts in Lakewood, his workload will definitely have to be monitored.
As I mentioned with Drabek, I think you have to take a different route with young guys who logged very few innings, whether it be because of an injury rehab or because they were prep pitchers drafted that June. I don’t have tons of scientific evidence to back up my ascertions, but my plan for young pitchers would include a few simple guidelines;
1. No more than 95 pitches per start. The general consensus among people who have done work on the issues of protecting pitchers indicates that 95-105 pitches is where fatigue really starts to set in. When you pitch in a state of fatigue, the tendency to alter your motion goes up, and when you’re altering your motion, mechanics or arm slot, the change of you hurting yourself goes up.
2. If you throw more than 30 pitches in 1 inning, you’re done for the game. This goes along with the fatigue argument. More than 30 pitches in an inning means you are laboring, which leads to fatigue and the same things I mentioned above.
I think by following these 2 simple rules, you’re better able to protect your arms. Some guys, no matter how protective you are, are going to get hurt, its an unavoidable fact. But there’s no use raising the risk level. Guys are in the minors to learn how to pitch, to learn the nuances of the game, and to refine their control and command. Pitching complete games, logging 10 strikeout games, and other things like that aren’t really all that valuable. I’d apply the above plan to guys like Pettibone, May, Cosart and then Shreve when he comes back.
Anyway, just something to think about.
Phuture Phillies 
good post. an insightful though on things to watch for.
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Good thing nobody important on the roster violated this rule…~cough~ Hamels ~cough again~
2007 – 190 IP
2008 – 257 IP
Luckily for us Hamels doesn’t have a history of injuries…oh crap.
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Oh I’m definitely worried about Hamels. There wasn’t much they could do about it though. They did leave him in a few games to allow him to add up innings when it didn’t seem necessary. I think they will be careful with him this season. They certainly should be.
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I’m worried as well. I like how they’re handling him in ST though, it’s at least a start.
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That shouldn’t be a problem for Cole this year, he’d have to throw 287 innings. Duh.
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I also had it expressed as no more than 20% increase. Modern kids dont have the physical start that they had in the day. Hard work started the maturation process(read increased
circulation leading to muscle building ability),
I believe in long toss to increase the demand on the body
and force it to increase the whole building process.
I believe many managers try to be too smart.
Take Jason Vargas, trader jack decided he needed a complete
game about 130 pitches He never pitched well again
I believe icing a young arm is counterproductive and doesnt allow the body to get rid of metabolic byproducts
quickly. Note that these pitchers never leave the mound
hurt but the next start is the crisis
Could you imagine giving the Babe ice to put on this airm
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Josh Johnson may give an incite into this problem.June 18,20006 Girardi left him in for 120 pitches then luckily his next start was rained out and he didnt start for 8 days. He remained healthy until Girardi was gone and they brought him out after 90 minute delay
Then there is the sad story of Willits way too many innings
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Right on Nepp .
Hamels had to fight the team from overusing him and people
sided with the team. Only a top pitcher can protect himself
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It’s natural to think of Hamels right off the bat, but he should have been experiencing injury issues in 2007 as he pitched 181 innings in 06 compared with 35 innings in 2005. I prefer the pitch count and it’s notable that Hamels averaged 103 pitches per start last year.
Can we draw parallels between Drabek and Hamels? KD made a promising return from surgery last season, but I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect the Phillies to limit him to below 60 innings this season. He needs pitch in order to develop his talent. I would hope the organization keeps him on a strict pitch count and pull him from games where he’s clearly laboring, but to pull the plug after 57 innings would seem a bit short sighted.
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I think because hamels relies on his fastball and change-up that might be in his favor regarding possible injury. I think if he was a breaking ball pitcher I would be scared more. It would be interesting to see out of the pitchers who got hurt how many relied on off speed compared to breaking stuff.
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If I recall correctly, a year ago Verducci had Hamels atop his ‘injuries waiting to happen’ list. I’m not sure if he discounted the fact that Hamels doesn’t throw the curce much and uses the changeup instead.
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I’m worried about Drabek because he relies heavily on his curveball. I kind of hope they let him ease in this year and then challenge him next season.
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Please clarify.
The guys with very low IP prev year (ex.: 27 for Slate). This is often due to injury or not being signed, etc.
These are big gus. Are you saying Slate should pitch only 57 innings in 09? Isn’t there some sort of minimum baseline that you can determine–maybe 80, 100, 120, depeding on physique, mechanics, etc.?
My intuitive thought is that the Vercucci rule applies to rasing the incerments gradually and systematically, within age and physical ability constraints?
If Knapp gets a non-pitching-arm injury and pitches 10 innings this year, should he only pitch 47 next year?
Hmmm . . .
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Meant 40 IP for Knapp.
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Well, if Hamels gets hurt I’m going to put a lot more stock in the rule. By all rights, if he is not abused (rarely throwing more than 110 pitches), Hamels should not get injured. As was previously noted, he does not throw the types of pitches that put undue strain on a pitcher’s arm. Furthermore, Hamels has become an absolute conditioning freak – routinely working out six hours a day to prepare himself for the season. If anyone should avoid injury, it’s Hamels . . . but we’ll see.
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I’ll also add that Hamels is 25, so he’s just about headed out of the very young pitcher category – his arm should be close to fully maturing, although, frankly, I expect him to add more velocity over the next couple of years.
I think what lies ahead for major league batters this year is downright scary – Hamels is already an NLCS and WS MVP and he’s just going to continue to get better. If you had to ask me to place odds on which young pitchers will go to the HOF, I don’t think I’d give anyone (including Lincecum) better odds than Hamels. I say this because Hamels would be a potential Cy Young candidate if he threw only 87 MPH. But he can throw it from 94-96 on occasion and usually sits in the low nineties. Watching his career unfold should be a pleasure.
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i wouldnt worry about hamels because of this ” rule”. in 2006 he threw 60 less innings than 2007 when he had a pretty good year, actually 70 innings with playoff. in 2004 santana threw 80 less than 2005 his cy young year. a good point i heard happ and park are not only fighting for this years 5th spot but next years 4th spot if you believe moyer will be gone. if donald is not on this roster instead of brunlett its a joke. as ive been saying for a year this kid is headed for great things God willing.
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i was off by a year on santana 2003 to 2004 but just moyer, in 2001 oswalt in 2002 and any number of other good pitchers this ” rule” is not exactly true. check it out.
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Moyer will be with the Phillies next year – he is signed through 2010 and if you think any other team wants to pick up that contract for a 47 year-old, I’ve got some nice swamp land in Florida I can sell you.
As for the rule, it is not an absolute. It is a guide and warning post. It tells everyone to pay attention, danger may be lurking for the pitcher.
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Did anyone see the Netherlands (Nederlands on their jersey) game last night? Was that the Phillies pitcher Van Den Hurk (sp?) who started yesterday and pitched 4 shutout innings against a major league lineup from Puerto Rico? He looked terrific although youthfully erratic. Our own JC got the win with a shut out 8th inning before PR finally scored in the bottom of the 8th.
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Never mind, this was the guy in the Marlins organization.
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Did you read the entire post? At the end I highlighted that guys who threw very very few innings will likely violate the rule of 30, but they have to be managed differently, ie, no more than 95 pitches per game, no really strenuous innings.
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How about a short outing after a long outing that should
help
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It seems like a % rule is better – it doesn’t make sense that 30 IP would be constant throughout. I guess I need to read the research you link a little more – I only have passing familiarity with it.
Also I hate when people focus on IP instead of pitches thrown. The difference can be huge. There is a significant difference in the number of pitches roy oswalt throws per inning versus a #4 starter. Not that the two aren’t correlated but it should be the case that better (or a certain profile of) pitchers throw fewer pitches per inning.
Anyway, go drabek.
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I think we all need to remember that this rule is just a guideline, and there are a lot of factors to take into consideration.
– Jeff
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More of a ceiling than a guideline
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“Did you read the entire post? At the end I highlighted that guys who threw very very few innings will likely violate the rule of 30, but they have to be managed differently, ie, no more than 95 pitches per game, no really strenuous innings.”
Got it. Was skimming at the end and missed the significance.
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I read the article when Verducci first wrote it and it makes good sense as a ‘guideline’. There are no hard and fast rules, obviously. However, how does Carrasco’s innings thrown in the winter leagues factor into the equation? Are they not considered?
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Some interesting items from Phillies minor league camp.
Jiwan James is listed as an outfielder,I guess they’ve decided that pitching was not his strength. And Colby Shreve was throwing off a mound today but was not throwing at 100%, when did he have his surgery?
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Surgery was last May I believe.
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Yup, Shreve had his surgery in mid-May.
To clarify, I’m not bashing the Phillies because of Hamels…they were smart to limit him from high pitch counts and they never used him on short rest (at his request)…they kept and keep with his stringent training regimen. I am worried because he threw a ton of innings last year and he threw a ton of pitches overall (wasn’t he #2 behind CC for the season?) He might wear down a bit faster this year from that heavy workload last year though.
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their is nothing really that black and white but since everyone seemed to be going berserk over hamels i simply checked out the best pitchers and found the guideline was not true in their case. as awhole its probably true but if you check the facts yourself its not true for the pitchers i checked and more i didnt mention. if you want me to invent stats i can.
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off subject, but Mike Taylor’s PECOTA is up. Upside scores is poor at 24 but his number 3 comp is Holliday, so that’s not bad.
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What are you talking about?
Seriously, I have no idea. I doubt you even read everything written in my post.
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For those that have to go back to the good ole days and huge workload. Please note that many top pitchers were done or
relatively ineffective after age 30. Newcombe was finished by
30 and Roberts less than .500.
Some pitcher survive past this rule the trouble is there is no way to determine which pitcher need more time, In other words a Million dollar crap shoot
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what do you think Scott Matheison’s workload will be like this year since he has missed alot of time and where he will start?
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Mikeb – I think the team would be thrilled if Mathieson ended the season strong and healthy – everything else would be a bonus.
John From Philly – with all due respect, I cannot follow your points. Yes, some pitchers remain healthy when they dramatically increase their workload. Many, many pitchers, however, tend to break down and there is a significant amount of statistical support for this proposition. It’s not make-believe.
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I think some people are missing the point of this. Of course it’s not a hard and fast rule. It’s a system of probabilities. The fact that Hamels didn’t break down doesn’t prove the rule isn’t true. It simply proves that Hamels defied the odds last year. There’s a variety of reasons why that may be the case. But it’s also possible to overanalyze it. Sometimes things that are probably going to happen just don’t happen–that’s the nature of probabilities.
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Who is surprised that people missed this, in the text of my post
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This is a really important issue. Thanks for the post.
Does player insurance have a future in baseball? Or would the premiums just be too high?
The Verducci Effect sounds like an actuarial approach, similar to how insurance companies assess risk. Maybe baseball needs to pursue the actuarial approach more aggressively. They would have to keep stats on nearly everything conceivable and search for patterns that emerge around injuries.
Atmospheric conditions matter, for example, dropping temperatures. Maybe injuries are more likely if a starter goes from humid to dry to humid again? Are inning by inning atmospheric stats even kept?
What about travel time? What about day of the week? Seriously, do more injuries happen on Sunday night after a six-hour flight the night before?
It might sound like overkill and a lot of hokum but insurance companies use the most esoteric forms of actuarial science to place value on the time remaining in a person’s life. Same thing could be done to to place value remaining on a person’s pitching arm. There may be serious issues with a smaller sample size but perhaps it could work.
With salaries in the 25 million dollar range maybe we’re reaching a point where there is no overkill in trying to predict risk.
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Andrew dont miss the point that Hamels had the power to resist overuse and did.
Wow PP you opened a can of worms. God only knows how many pitchers are ruined in college Let me give you the extreme
Atlee Hammaker once threw somewhere around 155 pitches
in a college game. The very next day the coach had him in the outfield he made a throw and hurt his arm. He had a decent carreer but was limited. I believe he might of been HOF before that game
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PP Its like playing Russian Roulette and adding a second bullet
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pp i find it strange you do not follow my point and i do read your posts. my simple point is that the 30 inning rule immediately scared many people about hamels but the FACTS are that in 2006 hamels threw 70 innings less than 2007. in 2003 santana threw 80 innings less 2004 a cy young year.in 2001 moyer threw 50 more innings than 2000 and went 20 -6, in 2002 oswalt threw 90 more innings than 2001 and went 19 and 9 in 2005 wang threw 100 less innings than 2006 when he went 19 and 6.doc halliday did it twice in 2001-02 100 more innings 05 -06 80 more. i could go on but what i am simply saying is among so-called quality pitchers not once did i find verducci,s rule to be accurate. now if it only applies to young untested pitchers ok i didnt check them but IT doesnt work with any quality pitcher i checked. im not saying go hog wild with innins and pitches they should take it easy once again im simply stating the rule ACCORDING TO THE FACTS is wrong.catch is it that difficult to follow this and i say that with all due respect.
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by the way in the case of the pitchers i looked at it was a 3 year approach. the low year i.e. hamels 2006 the jump 2007 and the so called damage year 2008. every pitcher i mentioned had no adverse effect. by the way i happen to enjoy tom verducci. nothing personal as many people seem to want to create that illusion.
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As Andrew said, it is a system of probabilities. That’s the whole point. You cannot prove a system of probabilities as being wrong with isolated exceptions. You would have to do a complete statistical analysis with a large, statistically significant group of samples to draw any meaningful conclusions. Others have done that and have found that the risk to pitchers appreciable increases when the so-called rule is violated. You can argue with the methodology or when it applies, but it ain’t that complicated.
This is certainly my last post on this topic.
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john from philly
usually i agree with you but this is about young pitchers under 25 by that age near maximum circulation and muscle maturity are in place
wang was 26 in 06
moyer was 37 in 01
santana was 25 in 03
and oswalt threw only 130 innings in 03
what you thought was an exception proveds the point
ps. the cube gives moyer a speed rating of 1
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catch exactly my point the probability that an established quality pitcher will almost certainly suffer is wrong if you read my post i said that younger untested pitchers were not checked by me but to conclude established pitchers will is wrong which is what to my understanding verducci said.the facts prove it its not my opinion. and nw apparently you missed the same point in my post.i completely agree that 25 years old is a fair age. in 03 oswalt threw 127 innings in 04 he threw 237 and in 05 he threw 241. 03 he went 10 – 5 04 20 – 10 05 20 – 12. is it so hard to believe a star like verducci can be wrong?
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Xfactor,
I believe that insurance already exists in baseball to a degree, most notibably with large $$ contracts. I’ve read more than one story that talked about a team collecting insurance money on a player who missed significant time because of injury.
Not sure what the cost of the policies are but I suspect they are rather high.
The attached article discusses it.
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0BJK/is_13_17/ai_n16808700
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there is every chance that the breakdown in 03 could of been more serious. I dont care so much about Verducci. I have thought about this subject for a long time. The problem is when managers and pitching coachs do the wrong thing it is the player that suffers not them. So Trader Jack goes home and smokes cigar and Jason Vargas gets called a flash in the pan. Doesnt seem fair does it
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One more thing then Ill try to shut up. We are used to thinking
of muscle or joint damage. Please add nerve damage maybe leading to muscle damage. Vargas never went on the Dl he was just missing some of the wonderful co ordination it takes to be a pitcher. We know ice applied too long can kill a nerve but at what point does it damage a never?
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For some of the young pitchers, aren’t intraquad/B-squad/etc innings also a factor. There’s no real way of knowing how many innings those guys threw in unofficial, competitive games. I may be mistaken, but I would imagine guys like Slate actually took part in a number of those games. I’m sure the Phillies are keeping track of that.
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MLB.com has an article (probably picked up from somewhere else) on Mathieson. It says he can throw 95 MPH. He’s mostly long tossing but hoping to get back to pitching off a mound by the end of the month (maybe early April). He hopes to be pitching in May in extended ST. He’s set a goal of June for pitching in the minors somewhere. I’d love to see that.
I tried to paste a link but it isn’t working.
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I have not read all of the comments, but I thought that I could help with a few things here.
Dierkes breaks down pitchers that threw 3400 or more pitches last season, and breaks down the injury concerns here: http://www.rotoauthority.com/2009/01/the-3400-club.html
and there is more here: http://www.rotoauthority.com/2009/01/the-3400-club-2.html
Then we have this to peruse: http://razzball.com/20-risky-pitchers-for-2009/
I just saw something else in regards to injury risks for pitchers but I can’t find it. Whether or not any of this helps, I don’t know. I have yet to have time to fully peruse.
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Anything from Matheson would be terrific because the article points out that the success rate after 2 TJs is only 30%. I didn’t realize that Shreve would be throwing at all by now so that’s positive. Its good to hear that Nate James is back as an outfielder after trying pitching. He was a stud high school hitter and is a great athlete so who knows. Minor league is now in full session so we should be able to get some daily news out of that.
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periferal innings are about the same every year so more or less cancel out
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By the by . . . . today’s ST game is going on and it confirms that:
Kyle Kendrick – is toast (stop with the experiment already!); and
Jason Donald – rules
Mark my words, if the team gives Donald sufficent ABs (not at all clear with LHV waiting and the immortal Pedro Feliz blocking his way at third), he will be a ROY candidate. This guy is going to be special.
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Agree, if you are discussing possible ROY candidates and the way is cleared for Donald this year, he would have to be part of the discussion. Lots of things can happen. I really think if Feliz or Utley cannpt play for any length of time, he should be first choice. If both are aout, maybe him and Giles.
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no need to comment on donald you all no where i stand buts its good to hear your agreement catch also agree with you on kendrick although its a shame for the kid. just heard verducci say hamels and lincicum need to “rethink their not pitching in the wbc ” apparenyly verducci cares tremendously about the phillies and hamels arm. burn him out maybe than the yankees or red sox will win again. the guy is an outright fraud.i guess his rule of 30 doesnt apply to phillies.
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john, please just stop.
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This is unrelated, but Mayberry had another homer today and a double He’s an absolute monster… although Golson is hitting .462 in the Rangers camp and had a grand slam the other day.
Win-Win says me.
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What about Feliz to the Yanks and Donald on 3rd opening day- pipe dream or possability?
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Never happen…they won’t trade Feliz and hand 3B to an untested rookie…no matter how good he is in ST.
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Mathieson Link:
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Scott Mathieson Article
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as i underststand jason had another good day at the plate. its a tough situation since i believe donald is ready now but feliz is underappreciated for his glove. great fielder. but it serves no purpose for jason to not be on the roster. the obvious solution is release brunlett and give donald enough ab,s at 3rd and 2nd until it will be impossible not to play him full time at 3rd. what a great home growninfield that will be howard utley rollins donald and marson next year. the best since the big red machine.
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Donald could probably step in and provide league average offense/defense at 2B or 3B right now. It won’t happen but he is making it very difficult for them to send him down. Still, I definitely think he’s opening eyes so far in camp. The kid can flat out hit. He reminds me of Utley (not talent wise but work ethic) back in 04 when he came out of nowhere and started turning heads. I was at a game against the Padres with my father and my Dad (it was around father’s day and we both treated him to a game) and Utley (then a nobody) absolutely CRUSHED a homerun into the away bullpen at CBP…he absolutely hammered the ball. I turned to my brother and basically said “Where the hell did this guy come from?!?”
That’s what Donald has done for me in the past year and now in ST.
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I mean to say I was at the game with my brother and dad…stupid typos and inability to edit comments.
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Nepp, you can’t say never going to happen anything is possible
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Let me see Donald and Mayberry
or Bruntlett and Jenkins or maybe stair
which is more likely to end contributing to a postseason
event. Oh this is ssooo hard
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Fixed your link NEPP.
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john from philly for all your posting faults and silliness you were on Donald for a long time now and I am beginning to agree with you a little more every day. He looks to be the real deal. (seriously though give it up with the rule of 30 stuff)
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Lot’s of reasons for Donald to start in AAA. As a contender, the Phillies need injury insurance. Donald is that. Feliz can start with Donald as insurance. If Donald starts, Feliz is gone. Same drill with Brunt. Last reports I read indicated that Donald still not comfortable with the 2B pivot, he needs to work on that in AAA. He would also profit from some more innings at 3B. Playing half a year in the minors will also give the Phillies control of his contract for another year. Finally, he probably could use the AAA experience from an offensive standpoint. He looks better than he is in ST because he played over the winter and the other hitters are just getting back in the groove. His bat was very good in AA last summer, but not knock your socks off. He is also better off playing every day rather than trying to be a super sub.
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I like the 30 pitches in 1 inning rule. I know the Pirates implemented it last season under their new regime. I was at an Altoona-Reading game where the starter labored threw the first inning and went over 30 pitches. His day was done and it didn’t matter that it was the first inning.
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C mon Allentown you want him in your park and i dont blame
you.
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at every step jason has done the job and then some i know your aware of minor league depression thats being sent down with no reason and having a bad adjustment. thanks p.t. although i dont consider my other posts silly.
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Irony of ironies, Hamels is headed to Philly for tests on his pitching elbow as he is having persistent soreness in it. It should be noted that his velocity is way down early in the Spring (apparently he is topping out at 81 mph right now). Also, he didn’t throw any curveballs in his 54 pitch outing.
So yeah, Happy Monday.
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Let the Carlos Carrasco watch begin. Actually, given Park’s performance yesterday, and Happ’s performance this Spring, Carrasco will get some almost certainly be in AAA, unless some other starter blows a tire (the smart money is on Myers going down with an injury).
Still, that’s not good news with Hamels, especially the “sending him back to Philly” part.
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I guess the Hamels thing puts off who is number 5. Park was nothing but great the other day . So Park and Happ in for a couple of weeks . Like Feliz no way I use Hamels until San Diego even if he is sorta ok.
Most of us thought injuries would play a part this year. Fingers crossed that this is just an small thing. Good luck Cole
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Yeah, given how ridiculously healthy the team was last year, I think it might catch up with them this year. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if some of their starters (especially Myers – I got a bad feeling about him this year) go down with injuries.
Hamels seems to not be concerned, which is a pretty good sign. It just frightens me whenever a guy gets sent back to Philly for a doctor to look at him – that usually ends poorly.
Just out of curiosity, assuming Happ and Park are in the rotation, who would they call up after Carrasco? Kendrick and Carpenter frighten me at this point
– Jeff
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stick a fork in kendrick…he is done.
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I’m a little late to the party (on vacation) and apparently more than a few people missed the point that the rule of 30 applies mostly to pitchers under the age of 25, so many of the counter-examples sited don’t apply because they were over the age of 25.
Anyway, I would be interested to see how many pitchers in the system violated the rule last year and present a higher risk in 2009. Maybe you could consider that as a future post phuture?
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Greg, did you read through the article that started the comments? PP went through a number of Phillies prospects that meet the criteria..
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3up…it looks to me like he posted the numbers that the pitchers shouldn’t surpass this year. What I’m looking for are the pitchers that DID surpass their number in 2008 (ie, pitched 30 more innings in 2008 than in 2007). Those would be the guys to watch this year.
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Phils system is in KG’s Top 15.
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If Hamels starts in San Diego he will only miss two starts and then the Park/Happ thingy will have an actual fair test. Anything before that is unacceptable plus that will cut he total
innings for the season
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I hope that Hamels is able to pitch before the Phillies visit San Diego since they don’t get there until June.
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sorry misread the schedule Still sun is the first true day apr 19
discounting Denver which could be cold as hell or warm as hell
anyway thanks for the correction
I was looking over the rule of 30 in relation to Kerry Wood
so many innings so young and such a talent what a sham
Hopefully our gift to the yankees Joba doesnt suffer the same fate. Girardi will have to fight to protect him
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