Review of my Top 100 prospects for 2008

I am planning on cranking out another Top 100 for this season, probably sometime next week, but I was thinking about last year’s list, so I figure I’d take a look back and see how good/bad my list was last year at this time. At some point I’m also going to collect the Top 100 lists from BA, BP and Keith Law and add them into a spreadsheet for comparison’s sake. But for now, here’s a review of my top 100…

I’ll just go 5 names at a time. These were my original rankings, you can see my blurbs/writeups here.

01. Evan Longoria
02. Jay Bruce
03. Clay Buchholz
04. Colby Rasmus
05. Johnny Cueto

Well, Longoria won the ROY, Bruce hit 21 HR in only 413 AB. Buchholz never got on track and lost his confidence. What’s weird is, I remember having my doubts on Rasmus, and I’ve had them for a while, but I ranked him 4th anyway, and now I wish I had a do-over there. Cueto was outstanding early, then went through some growing pains and struggled for the latter part of the season. Still very high on him, as long as Dusty doesn’t do his thing on his arm.

06. Travis Snider
07. Joba Chamberlain
08. Andy LaRoche
09. Clayton Kershaw
10. Wade Davis

Snider raked in September and looks like a middle of the order fixture for years to come. I was worried about Joba’s health and whether the Yankees would jerk him around, and both of these concerns seem well founded now. I missed big time on LaRoche, who despite getting a fresh start in Pittsburgh still hasn’t hit and still keeps suffering from minor injuries. Kershaw impressed, and Wade Davis had a very solid 2008. Davis is still in David Price’s shadow, but I like his stuff a lot.

11. Joey Votto
12. David Price
13. Chase Headley
14. Jarrod Parker
15. Daric Barton

Votto was probably the second most impressive rookie behind Soto last year. We all know about David Price, who if you believe ESPN, could split the atom with his slider. Headley didn’t have quite the breakout year I expected, and his final defensive position still seems to be in question. Parker had a very nice year in the Midwest League, and Daric Barton bombed out.

16. Carlos Triunfel
17. Rick Porcello
18. Brett Anderson
19. Reid Brignac
20. Matt Wieters

I was way too high on Triunfel, but the reason I say that is the rumored maturity issues. I still think the talent is there. I was maybe too low on Porcello, who right now I’d rank right ahead of Parker. Anderson had an excellent season and is now one of the A’s best prospects. Brignac struggled a bit in AAA, and Wieters is now the best prospect in all of baseball.

21. Jake McGee
22. Tim Alderson
23. Hank Conger
24. Cameron Maybin
25. Lars Anderson

McGee needed Tommy John surgery, so 2008 was a lost season. Alderson was outstanding in the Cal League, a hitters paradise. Conger couldn’t stay healthy, and I guess its time to start dropping him down prospect lists. Maybin still has holes in his swing, but the raw tools are still there. Lars Anderson was impressive in the Cal League, but even more impressive when moving up to AA. But he’s blocked for now in Boston.

26. Jason Heyward
27. Ross Detwiler
28. Jacoby Ellsbury
29. Desmond Jennings
30. Nick Adenhart

Heyward is a stud, and someone Phillies fans are going to dread seeing for years to come. Detwiler struggled with consistency and his command in High A. Ellsbury is a one dimensional guy at this point, but his one dimension is pretty exceptional. Jennings’ season was lost to various injuries, and Adenhart was a disaster.

31. Josh Vitters
32. Omar Poveda
33. Mike Moustakas
34. Franklin Morales
35. Homer Bailey

Vitters got a late start after suffering an injury, but he raked when he was healthy. Poveda was one of my sleeper guys, but he didn’t have the best year in 2008, walking way too many guys but still missing his share of bats. Moustakas showed excellent power in the Midwest League after being moved to 3B. Morales was largely a disaster, and Bailey continued to struggle with raw stuff and finding any kind of consistency.

36. Brandon Wood
37. Chris Marrero
38. Geovany Soto
39. Jordan Schafer
40. Fautino De Los Santos

Wood is still kind of teetering. The power numbers are good, he draws a few walks, but he swings and misses a lot. Marrero’s season was lost largely to injuries. Soto won the ROY, I was a bit low there. Schafer is interesting….this was my original comment on him

I’m generally skeptical of guys who put up pedestrian numbers for 2-3 seasons, then suddenly just flip the switch and tear it up. Schafer sets off those warning signs for me, but it really could just be a guy growing into his tools. I could honestly bump him up 5 slots of drop him 15. But I’ll leave him here.

Turns out he was roiding. Go figure. De Los Santos missed the year with an injury.

41. Austin Jackson
42. Andrew McCutchen
43. Wes Hodges
44. Ian Kennedy
45. Angel Villalona

Jackson had a good, not great year, and the same can really be said for McCutchen. It seems no one is impressed with Wes Hodges anymore, but I still am. If he drew a few more walks, I’d like him even more. Kennedy wasn’t very good, and Villalona had a nice season.

46. Eric Hurley
47. Billy Rowell
48. Trevor Cahill
49. Elvis Andrus
50. Chris Tillman

Hurley had a rough 2008 and then blew out his arm, so that’s no good. Rowell, after a monster debut in 2006 hasn’t done a whole lot of anything. Cahill had an excellent season, as did Tillman. Andrus is still a bit of an enigma, how much will he hit? But his defense is solid and he has excellent speed.

51. Jed Lowrie
52. Carlos Gonzalez
53. Jose Tabata
54. Jeff Clement
55. Jeremy Hellickson

Lowrie displaced Julio Lugo and outperformed him even though he was playing with a banged up wrist. Gonzalez’s tools are still way ahead of his performances. Tabata was bad before the trade but raked after coming to Pittsburgh. Clement struggled, but lots of young catchers go through similar things. Hellickson, like Hodges, seems to not get a whole lot of respect despite continuing to put up great numbers.

56. Matt Antonelli
57. Gio Gonzalez
58. Aaron Poreda
59. Neil Walker
60. Matt LaPorta

Antonelli was a disaster in 2008, Gonzalez was good, as was Poreda. Walker looks to be teetering at this point, and I don’t know if he makes my 100 this year. I was down on LaPorta, relative to other experts, but he put up pretty good power numbers in 2008.

61. Jordan Walden
62. Greg Reynolds
63. Dan Cortes
64. Michael Bowden
65. Fernando Martinez

Walden had a real nice year in the Midwest League and got his feet wet in the Cal League near the end of the season. Reynolds was bad in Colorado and then went down with arm issues. Cortes was largely inconsistent, Bowden pitched well but I still don’t care for his delivery. Fernando Martinez is still a scouts guy, but he still hasn’t put up big numbers to back up the hype.

66. Jair Jurrjens
67. James McDonald
68. Carlos Carrasco
69. Luke Hochevar
70. Ryan Kalish

Jurrjens was great for Atlanta and McDonald more than held his own in LA after being called up. Carrasco, as we’ve detailed, had a fine season, especially his stint in AAA. Hochevar continues to not really look like a #1 overall pick. Kalish apparently wasn’t recovered from his wrist injury a year ago and still hasn’t shown the power scouts think he has.

71. Brandon Jones
72. Justin Masterson
73. Mat Gamel
74. Taylor Teagarden
75. Will Inman

Jones didn’t really break out and is a tweener now. Masterson was good in relief, where he’ll ultimately stick IMO. Gamel can hit, but I don’t know about his power, and I do know he can’t field the ball. Teagarden had a big September, but I still wonder about his bat. Inman walked way too many batters, but still got his share of strikeouts and allowed only 10 HR in 135 innings…he’ll certainly have a favorable home park to back him up in the majors.

76. Chris Davis
77. Jeff Locke
78. German Duran
79. Gorkys Hernandez
80. Michael Burgess

Davis showed the massive raw power I mentioned last year, as well as the strikeouts. He’ll need to draw a few more walks, because I don’t think he’s going to hit for a high average. Locke was inconsistent, but flashed the plus stuff I talked about last year. Duran was a disappointment, Hernandez saw his numbers drop off in the speed category, but drew more walks. Burgess showed decent power but swung and missed a lot.

81. Aaron Cunningham
82. Jaime Garcia
83. Kyle Blanks
84. Dexter Fowler
85. Jake Arrieta

Cunningham had a great season, and much like Wes Hodges and Jeremy Hellickson, he just seems to be underrated because he lacks that one amazing tool. Garcia looks like he might miss all of 2009 with an arm injury. Blanks mashed, but he’s blocked in San Diego for the foreseeable future. Fowler was healthy and had an excellent season, showing all 5 tools. Arrieta continued to pitch well.

86. Chin-Lung Hu
87. Steven Pearce
88. Beau Mills
89. Tyler Herron
90. Ian Stewart

Hu struggled after his 2007 breakout, again raising the questions about his bat. Pearce didn’t really have the breakout I was looking for, Mills was decent but still doesn’t really have a defensive position. Herron was very good in the FSL but struggled during his first taste of AA. Ian Stewart had a nice season, but I’m still unclear where he’s going to play defensively.

91. Adrian Carednas
92. Cody Johnson
93. James Simmons
94. Cole Rohrbough
95. Brett Cecil

Cardenas struggled with Oakland after the trade, but was hitting well before the deal. Johnson is an all or nothing hitter with massive raw power but lots of holes in his swing. Simmons had a great year in AA, Rohrbough showed swing and miss stuff but struggled with his control and command. Cecil had a great season transitioning to starting, and is a guy I like a lot heading into 2009.

96. Anuery Rodriguez
97. Jesus Montero
98. Chad Huffman
99. JR Towles
100. Carlos Gomez

Rodriguez was another of my sleepers, and maybe my best of the bunch. He was on no one’s radar last winter, but people are now talking. Montero’s bat is even better than I thought, of course I don’t think hes a catcher long term, but his bat will play even at 1B, so he’ll move up the rankings. Huffman didn’t replicate the power from 2007, but he continued to draw walks and show gap power. Towles fell apart in the bigs and never really got going. Gomez has a poor eye but game changing speed.

So there ya go. And since I’m bored, I went ahead and put together the Top 100 lists from Keith Law, Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. Here it is, in 3 parts…

top100-part-1
top-100-part-2
top-100-part-3

Just a few thoughts;

* I was the highest on Votto (11th) by a good margin. Law had him at #56, BA had him at #44, and BP had him at #21.

* I was the highest on Brett Anderson (18th) by a good margin. Law didn’t rank him, BA had him #36, and BP had him #50.

* I was the lowest on Wieters at 20th, Law had him 14th, BA and BP had him 12th.

* I was the highest on Alderson (#22) by a wide margin, Law had him at #59, BA had him at #85, and Goldstein did not rank him in the Top 100.

* I was the highest on Lars Anderson (#25), Keith Law had him at 28, while BA had him 40 and Goldstein had him at #100.

* I was by far the lowest on Morales (#34), Keith Law and BA had him at #8, Goldstein had him at #14.

* I was also the lowest on Bailey (#35), Keith Law, BA and Golstein all had him at #9.

* I had Trevor Cahill at #48, Law had him at #94, BA didn’t rank him, Goldstein ranked him #98.

* I was the lowest on Deolis Guerra, not ranking him in my Top 100. Law had him #80, BA had him at #35, and Goldstein had him at #79.

* I also named guys in my Top 100 that didn’t appear in anyone else’s list, including Mat Gamel, Anuery Rodriguez, and Aaron Cunningham.

I missed on a bunch of guys too, a few of my sleepers kept sleeping, and I was way too high on some (LaRoche) and too low on others (Fowler), but all in all, I’m pretty happy with my list.

12 thoughts on “Review of my Top 100 prospects for 2008

  1. Cueto @ 5 ouch. Not to get on your case because I know you work hard on this stuff. But you said “Cueto was outstanding early”, Cueto was pretty bad from the get go last year.
    April – 5.40 ERA
    May – 5.40 ERA

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  2. “Cueto @ 5 ouch. Not to get on your case because I know you work hard on this stuff. But you said “Cueto was outstanding early”, Cueto was pretty bad from the get go last year.
    April – 5.40 ERA
    May – 5.40 ERA”

    Depends was you define as early. His first 2 games:
    IP H R ER HR BB SO
    7.0 1 1 1 1 0 10
    6.1 5 2 2 1 0 8

    He was outstanding on his first 2 stats.

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  3. That’s awesome, but it’s two starts. I mean if you want to say Cueto was outstanding for two starts before tanking quicker than the Titanic, that’s fine be my guest. I just don’t you can really put any weight on two starts . . . that’s a ridiculously small sample size.

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  4. I guess it depends on what early means. I’m guessing by early, PP meant his first couple of starts. Its a small sample size, but for a guy with Cueto’s stuff, it gives you an idea of what he could do. He had a tough year, no way I would give up on him though.

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  5. I meant in his first two starts. He obviously showed the potential. He did struggle, but mixed in with his awful starts were a number of quality starts as well. He was either great or awful for most of the season, not uncommon for a young pitcher who skyrocketed through the farm system.

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  6. And since “Anonymous” is obviously looking to have a go at me, I looked at Cueto’s full game log

    He made 31 starts. Here is his breakdown by ER allowed

    0 ER — 2
    1 ER — 5
    2 ER — 7
    3 ER — 7
    4 ER — 1
    5 ER — 5
    6 ER — 4

    So of the 31 starts, he allowed 3 ER or fewer in 21 of those games. I don’t think that’s “sinking like the Titanic”, I think that’s a case of him having a number of really bad outings mixed in with a number of really good outings.

    He also logged 174 innings, showing his durability, and struck out 158 guys. As a 22 year old rookie who was underrated by many, I’m actually fine with ranking him #5 on my list.

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  7. I would take Cueto in a heart beat because the guy has star potential if he can find consistency in his delivery.

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  8. PP- Seems like you hit on a few that the Pros did not. What do you attribute that to? Is there something about how you run assess the numbers that you think is unique, or do you think that this is just a case of you being a little more free to go out on a limb than the ‘experts’?

    Looking forward to the 2009 edition.

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  9. Some of it is isolating certain statistics and weighing them more than others, and some of it is gut feel. For instance, everyone still loves Adam Miller, the Indians pitching prospect. He can regularly hit 97-98 mph on his fastball, but I hate his delivery/mechanics, and he’s had injury issues for basically his entire pro career. So I just leave a guy like that off my list. Sure, he might end up being useful, or even a great player, but there are numerous things about him I dislike, so I don’t rank him.

    I obviously am not a pro scout, but I think I have some idea of what I’m looking at when I see a player swing a bat or throw a pitch. Sometimes I’m right, sometimes I’m wrong.

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