PECOTA and Phillies prospects, 2009 edition

Top Prospect Lists

Last year I took a look at how PECOTA, the Baseball Prospectus forecasting system, felt about Phillies prospects. The two metrics I used were UPSIDE and Beta, and I’ll use the same numbers again this year. For a full explanation of these metrics, check last year’s post here. Basically, the higher the UPSIDE the better, and the lower the beta, the more reliable the forecast is. PECOTA is unique, in that it takes many more factors into account than your typical projection system. If you’re unfamiliar with PECOTA, here is a good primer. For reasons that I don’t know, only three of our position player prospects have PECOTA’s, in Marson, Mayberry and Harman. My guess is that has to do with them being on the 40 man roster. But there are 13 pitching prospects with PECOTA’s, many of whom aren’t on the 40 man, so I have no idea. I’m going to try and get ahold of someone at BP and find out what the story is there. When/if Donald and others have forecasts, I’ll write up a supplemental post. But for now…

I’m going to take a look at the projections given for the Phillies prospects, and where I can, talk about how it relates to last year’s projections. I’m not all that interested in the EqA’s and MLE’s for prospects, because in many cases, these guys are still a ways away from becoming big league regulars. The UPSIDE scores and comparable players give us a bit more insight and are a bit more useful, in my opinion. So lets get started. Since we only have three position prospects to look at, that’s where we’ll begin.

Lou Marson, C
2009: 73.9 UPSIDE/0.94 Beta — Comps = Russ Martin, Jesse Levis, Phil Lombardi, Tom Redington
2008: 31.6 UPSIDE/1.05 Beta — Comps = Pat Cline, Pee-Wee Lopez, Alberto Castillo, Josh Roskos

PECOTA is bullish on Marson. His Upside score more than doubled, and his beta declined, both positive indicators. Also, he drew Russell Martin as his similar player, a comparison that was made on this very site over the summer. PECOTA sees a .346 OB% for Marson if he stepped into the majors right away, a very respectable total, though it doesn’t give him much power (.377 SLG), which isn’t a big surprise. As a comparison to current big leaguers, Marson’s Upside score of 73.9 ranks 18th among all MLB catchers/catching prospects, one spot behind Carlos Santana (Cleveland) and one spot above Kelly Shoppach. Santana’s Upside score is 78.1, not a huge difference, but scouts seem more enamoured with him. The only other catching prospects ahead of Marson are Matt Wieters (BAL, 619.6), Angel Salome (MIL, 98.4) and Derek Norris (Nats, 81.6), but Salome is a question mark to stick at C. Using Upside, Marson is the 5th best catching prospect in the game. Not too shabby.

Brad Harman, INF
2009: 14.3 UPSIDE/1.01 Beta — Comps = Juan Espinal, Mario Lisson, Erick Almonte, Lance Madsen
2008: 23.1 UPSIDE/1.08 Beta — Comps = Jose Bautista, Robinson Chirinos, Ramon Castro, Marco Scutaro

PECOTA isn’t so bullish on Brad Harman, which is a common thread. Harman’s 2008 was an abject disappointment, I had him pegged as a decent breakout guy. His Upside now reflects almost non-prospect status, though he’s still young. His comparables list is even less inspiring now.

John Mayberry Jr, OF
2009: 5.7 Upside/0.96 Beta — Comps = Chad Mottola, Pete Tucci, Troy Afenir, Bob Zupcic

Ouch. Needless to say, PECOTA is not a fan. Mayberry is still a bit of a mystery. He has power, he can sometimes draw a walk, but he’s likely not going to hit for average. The signing of Ibanez has basically ruled out the idea of Mayberry hitting the majors this season, at least in any major role. PECOTA sees an uninspiring line of .225/.285/.395 for him. The good? Well, a .170 ISO isn’t shabby. The bad? Everything else. He’s 25, so he needs to show something. And fast.

With 13 pitchers to cover, I’ll be brief on most.

Carlos Carrasco, RHP
2009: 61.5 UPSIDE/0.98 Beta — Comps = Jose Lima, Amaury Telemaco, Luis Vasquez, Anibal Sanchez
2008: 22.0 UPSIDE/1.70 Beta — Comps = Rafael Rodriguez, Victor Santos, Calvin Maduro, Tony Armas

A big rebound season for Carrasco as far as PECOTA goes. He nearly tripled his Upside score, and his beta normalized. His comparables list is still less than inspiring, but it looks a whole lot better now. It may be tough to remember, but Jose Lima was actually a decent pitcher at one point. I mean, you still have to hope Carrasco is more than that, but it provides a bit more promise than Calvin Maduro. PECOTA sees a mixed bag for Carrasco in 2009 at the major league level, 126 IP, 129 H, 59 BB, 107 K, 18 HR. Those numbers don’t seem all that out of line. The hits might be a tad high, the walks could go either way, the strikeouts seem right, and as a flyball pitcher, the HR (considering CBP) aren’t a stretch. As a 22 year old in the bigs, that would be a tolerable debut with room to grow. As a comparison to his 61.5 Upside score, he’d rank 110th among all MLB pitchers, one spot below Reds reliever Bill Bray (61.7) and one spot above Jays pitcher Dustin McGowan (61.4), who had a solid 2007 but was injured much of 2008.

JA Happ, LHP
2009: 43.3 UPSIDE/1.02 Beta — Comps = Chris Capuano, Mickey Mahler, David West, Lou Brissie
2008: 22.3 UPSIDE/1.24 Beta — Comps = Tim Birtas, Matt Kinney, Bill Butler, Renie Martin

Much like Carrasco, Happ did a bit to improve his stock this year, pitching well in AAA and then holding his own in his big league stint. He’s a finished article at this point, he doesn’t have projection left, but he looks like a credible #4/#5 starter. PECOTA sees a bit less Upside here in relation to Carrasco, but his comp list looks much better this winter. Chris Capuano has been a serviceable big league starter (and at times, more), but has gone through a bunch of arm trouble. David West was, of course, a vital cog in the ’93 pennant winning team. Happ’s 43.3 Upside puts him one spot below Huston Street (43.7) and one spot above Padres prospect Wade LeBlanc (43.2), which is interesting because LeBlanc is a very similar pitcher to Happ. PECOTA sees Happ allowing just shy of 1 hit per inning, with 49 BB and 97 K in 111 innings.

Andrew Carpenter, RHP
2009: 14.0 Upside/1.11 Beta — Comps = Zack Segovia, Kent Bottenfield, Joe Slusarski, Brian Sackinsky
2008: 29.3 Upside/1.47 Beta — Comps = Corey Thurman, John Lackey, Sam Lecure, Brian Sackinsky

Well, so much for that John Lackey comp last year, eh? Carpenter’s 2008 was not very good, he couldn’t get AA hitters out, and though he pitched relatively well in Clearwater, he’d already shown the ability to retire A ball hitters, so it doesn’t tell us anything. PECOTA isn’t a big fan going forward, and you probably shouldn’t be either. Kent Bottenfield seems like his upside at this point.

Jason Knapp, RHP: 17.9 Upside/1.57 Beta
Mike Cisco, RHP: 13.9 Upside/1.32 Beta
Drew Naylor, RHP: 10.7 Upside/1.19 Beta
Sergio Escalona, LHP: 6.4 Upside/1.12 Beta
Julian Sampson, RHP: 3.1 Upside/1.21 Beta

All five guys here are new additions who weren’t covered last year. Knapp possesses the highest Upside score of the bunch, as well as the highest beta as he’s thrown the fewest innings. Sampson’s Upside is the lowest, as PECOTA isn’t giving him credit for his scouting reports, but is simply factoring in his modest peripherals. Naylor doesn’t get much of a shout here, but his modestly high beta gives him a bit of potential growth. Escalona is a sleeper, but his Upside is very low, obviously.

Kyle Drabek, RHP
2009: 10.4 Upside/1.37 Beta — Comps = Jeff Perry, Richard Rice, Rob Wishnevski, Randy O’Neil
2008: 7.9 Upside/1.51 Beta — Comps = Ricky Stone, Josh Girdley, Steve Karsay, Ryan Tucker

Drabek is still the biggest wildcard in the system, and that is represented in his still high beta score. With so few innings and a major surgery on his ledger, its not a big surprise to see a low upside score. If he has a big 2009, his score will rise quite a bit.

Joe Savery, LHP
2009: 6.8 Upside/1.13 Beta — Comps = Scott Christman, Terry Mulholland, Chris Hancock, Justin Jones
2008: 29.2 Upside/1.57 Beta — Comps = Corey Lee, Joe Saunders, Michael Pasqualicchio, Wade LeBlanc

Savery, by most metrics, had a very disappointing season. I’m as bullish on him as anyone, and I point out that great 7-8 week stretch he had near the end of the summer, but PECOTA isn’t buying at this point. His beta dropped sharply, as did his Upside score, which isn’t a good combo. He loses a good ML starter in Joe Saunders and a good prospect in Wade LeBlanc, but he does gain personal favorite Terry Mulholland. So there’s that. 2009 is a big year for Joe.

Chance Chapman, RHP
2009: 2.7 Upside/1.21 Beta — Comps = Larry Buckle, Steve Loubier, Korey Keling, Pat Rapp
2008: 11.2 Upside/1.35 Beta — Comps = Carlos Fisher, Jeff Cosman, Jack Egbert, Jordan Tata

Chapman, despite a decent season, has all but fallen off of PECOTA’s map. This is largely due to his age and the level he’s been relegated to, where nothing short of complete domination would give him a chance. His comparables list is forgettable at best, hopeless at worst. At this point, he’s an org arm, nothing more and maybe less.

No sign of Antonio Bastardo’s forecast. If you’re curious, Josh Outman’s Upside is 13.2, Adrian Cardenas doesn’t have a forecast yet, ditto Matt Spencer. Fabio Castro has an Upside of 15.6 (down from 33.2 last season), and Brian Schlitter (traded for Scott Eyre, remember?) has an Upside score of 6.7. Robert Mosebach, the Phillies Rule 5 selection, has an Upside of 3.3 and likely a return plane ticket to Anaheim.

That’s a wrap. As I said, if there are more projections in the next update I’ll post them. The notables are obviously Donald, Taylor, Brown, D’Arnaud, Collier and Hewitt. Especially Hewitt!

46 thoughts on “PECOTA and Phillies prospects, 2009 edition”

  2. I’m surprised they’re so high on Marson…not that I’m complaining. Maybe its the bludgeoning his swing took by scouts over the winter…

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  3. I’ve been down here in Clearwater and I’ve seen most of the workouts and would like to pass on a comment on Anthony Hewitt. The one positive I came away with after watching his BP was that he actually looks like a baseball player. I say that because after watching Greg Golson last year, who was very “mechanical” or not very natural in his swing or his baseball instincts, I was expecting the same from Hewitt because they were both considered to be raw but” toolsheds”. Body wise he’s looks like a young Ron Gant, meaning he’s solid as a rock. So if he can ever recognize a slider from a fastball he may be a great player.

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  4. Can we get the Phils to read the stuff on Marson? They might be interested. I think
    All kidding aside I really have no idea what the team thinking is. At least I dont hear all the dribble about their “winter meetings” this year. You know where they make up their minds Andy Reed style and stick to no matter what comes up
    (read Nate McLouth instead of Jenkins etc) Raul looks greatly overpaid at the point but lets hope that work out well

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  5. Good stuff, James. Did these figures come as part of the annual? I can’t seem to find them on the website anywhere.

    Unfortunate that we’re missing PECOTA forecasts for all but one of our best hitting prospects. I’d love to see what PECOTA makes of Brown, Taylor, and especially Donald (given his 51.8 upside and 0.87 beta last year).

    And consider me shocked that Naylor’s forecast is so poor. I know PECOTA probably thinks he’s been a bit old for his levels, but he barely edges out Drabek, whose pro numbers to this point are underwhelming to say the least.

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  6. Baseball America’s top 100 is up, 4 phils on it. Brown #48, Carrasco #52, Marson #66 and Donald #69. No love for Drabek, I thought they were pretty high on him.

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  9. BA posted their Top 100 prospects. The Phillies on the list:

    #48 Dominic Brown
    #52 Carrasco
    #66 Marson
    #69 Donald

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  10. I decided to take a little historical look at BA’s top 100 picks over the last 8-10 years. To be honest with you, although forecasting prospects is a dangerously fickle business, the BA ranking system left me unimpressed. Chase Utley topped out at about 81. Ryan Howard ranked only 27th after he had hit 48 homers at 3 levels in 2004. The year he came up, Cole Hamels was ranked around 71. It seems to me this is more a ranking of physical ability and age (extreme premium on youth) than it is a ranking of baseball ability. This system is going to consistently underrate the type of player the Phils have become great at developing – a player like Jason Donald (no skill overwhelms you, on older side) or Michael Taylor (older). I’m not saying that youth and physical ability are not critical, but BA rates these attributes much too highly. They should call their list the “Delmon Young/Andrew McCutcheon” rankings.

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  11. Pecota obviously loves Marson because they’re stats based. When you look at the stats, Lou is one fine player. The organization didn’t want him sitting around this year behind Ruiz so he’ll play every day at AAA and work to improve. I don’t know if he’ll get a chance to come up before Sept. but he should be up for good then. I still think that Taylor has a higher upside than anyone we have but he needs to hit well again this year. I agree that Harman, Mayberry, and Carpenter aren’t prospects at this time.

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  12. Catch 22 f/k/a H Man:

    The emphasis on physical abilities and raw tools has always been BA’s calling card. I agree with you — they often underrate guys who are a bit older, or whose skill sets don’t fit a traditional mold, and that can be frustrating at times. Take a look at what Nate Silver wrote for BP a few years ago, most specifically the part about Michael Bourn and Shane Victorino — he’s got a similar same criticism, and I think there’s definitely merit there.

    That being said, there were some extenuating circumstances for the Phils you mentioned. Utley struggled adjusting to 3B in Scranton in 2002; had he not crossed the ML AB threshold by 4 in 2003, he’d surely have been much higher than #81 on the 2004 list. #27 for Howard in 2005 seems fair given his age prodigious strikeout totals. Had Hamels ever managed to stay healthy and put up a full minor league season, he’d surely have peaked higher than #68. It’s certainly worth a laugh when you go back to look at it now, but I think all those decisions were pretty sensible at the time.

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  13. Don’t bring up Brian Schlitter! Remember the backlash for giving him up the Phils got on this very site?

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  14. Friar:

    You know, there were some extenuating circumstances, but, for a guy who was clearly ready to be a slugger at the MLB level after the 2004 season, Howard’s rankings were still comically low.

    The main point is that I think BA is going to consistentlyto underrate the type of prospects that the Phils are best at developing. So their listing Jason Donald at 69 (or whatever the heck he is) and not listing Michael Taylor at all is not particularly meaningful to me.

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  17. I too was in Clearwater for a couple workouts and agree with gkit regarding Hewitt. Something special if he can make consistant contact. Also Howard looks much better at first and Amaro was watching Happ like a hawk when he threw BP. Carrasco was throwing at the same time on and adjacent field but Amaro stayed with Happ. He threw very well against Werth and Stairs

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  18. I know it’d be too early for him to be rated anyway, but what’s the word on Gose? has he decided to become a pitcher yet or what? I feel like i’ve heard nothing on him

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  19. For lots of reasons (mostly good ones), the team wants Carrasco to start at AAA. Unless he goes out and completely dominates from start to finish, he’s going to LHV. That doesn’t mean, however, that he won’t be called up sometime this season, but I don’t think he’s going north with the big team. At a number of levels (including the fact that he’s hasn’t proven his dominance at AAA over an extended period of time), this makes the most sense.

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  20. Gose isn’t in major league camp and the minor leaguers haven’t reported yet but there’s no decision up in the air, he’s made it very clear that he’s an outfielder for the foreseeable future.

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  21. Maybe we could hire John Woo as a Special Face/Off coach and he could get Savery and Gose to switch bodies or faces or whatever they hell Cage and Travolta did in that movie

    – Jeff

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  23. Donald’s PECOTA card is up, but the news isn’t necessarily good…

    Jason Donald, INF
    2009: 43.8 Upside, 1.20 Beta — Comps = Scott Romano, Jim Opie, Brian Giles, Erick Almonte
    2008: 51.8 Upside, 0.87 Beta — Comps = Mike Edwards, Tony Manahan, Joe Jester, Adam Piatt

    I guess PECOTA must not have thought much of Donald’s 2008 campaign — probably something to do with his age and the limited at bats (due to injury and his participation in the Olympics). Brian Giles gives some heart, but Romano, Opie and Almonte have a combined 39 big league games between them. Interesting.

    BP also mentions that they’d like to run cards on Michael Taylor and Colby Shreve, among others, and that they’re working on a way to get that done.

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  24. Frankly, the PECOTA for Donald is impossible to fathom. He started 2007 in low A and then had half a season in high A. In 2008 he moves up a level for the whole year, making him two levels above where he started 2007. He puts up a higher OPS at Reading than at either of his 2007 stops. He even stole more bases. He follows that with an excellent AFL, during which he shows the flexibility to play other defensive positions. He did well on the Olympic team. So … he puts up better stats, but his upside prediction declines by 8 points. He is a step closer to the majors, yet his beta explodes. He did absolutely nothing in 2008 that should have dimmed his star, even remotely.

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  25. I think PECOTA sees his at bats in the minors and freaked out. I don’t think PECOTA considers Olympic and AFL data. PECOTA is not as smart as a person in some ways.

    I’m not really sure what to make of the comps either. Matt Wieters, the very best prospect in the world, has Mark Teixeira; J.D Drew; Alex Gordon and Ben Grieve as his comps. Pretty wide disparity there.

    Colby Rasmus, another very highly rated guy has Ed Kirkpatrick; Al Chambers; Chris Lubanski and David Justice as his comps. I’m not really sure what that mix of guys tells you either.

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  26. can a player hit a deuce or #1, will he take a pitch in the ribs to get on, can he see, will he run the bases like rose, can he play defense, is winning the most important thing. my pecota ratings ” damn that boy can play “. but i guess i cant make millions selling that like ba or bp. all the analysis is fun but what it comes down to seeing a player and knowing he can play. its very simple but i guess im old school. but if it worked for uncle hughie or stick michael its good enough.

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  28. I cannot wait to hear the inevitable, “When I was young, I had to walk 5 miles to school in the wind, snow…” story. Also, I am not interested in how much milk, stamps, gasoline, or any other material item cost 50 years ago.

    On a more serious note, I am not sure why people get offended by projection systems and other tools of the statistical world. Stats are an incredible tool, and they are becoming more and more sophisticated every year. It is truly amazing what some mathematicians can deduce from the raw data. However, I do not think anyone is claiming that they are the be all end all. They are simply another means of forming an opinion on a player. In an ideal world (and also in the world of MLB), stats are being merged with scouting reports to form more accurate portrayals of players. Oh, there are also useless anecdotes like, “damn that boy can play,” and, “can he see?” However, these are thankfully slowly fading away as the older generations do the same (I am not thankful that the older generations are fading away, just the silly anecdotes that writers like Bill Conlin continue to perpetuate).

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  29. Seriously, John, “can he see?” Also, those anecdotes are not good enough. They are not even remotely close to good enough. I do not know who “uncle hughie” and “stick michael” are, however, I am positive that if they were playing/scouting/managing in today’s game, then it would not work for them either.

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  32. I guess that’s the thing right there – the scouting game has changed. Now there are so many other many other means of analyzing a player, it can be overwhelming. Does that mean you don’t even need to watch a player in person before you draft him? Absolutely not. It’s simply another resource and it’s a great analysis tool

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  33. Everyone has a talent. Sport reports for some reason dont have a understanding of numbers yet alone stats. It is not a function of age. Ed Wade was about 40 when he took over the Phils and immediately sign Spoljoric. One took at his splits page would of shown batters hit never .500 against him on the first pitch. He Doesnt understand and probably is unable
    You cant dismiss Hugh Alexander as you cant dismiss
    Benn Franklin. History is

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  34. I am sorry, nowheels. I just cannot understand what you are trying to say. I like opposing viewpoints almost as much as I love my own, but I simply cannot find any coherence in your posts. If you would try and summarize your viewpoint, I would appreciate it.

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  37. Pity what? that you’re incapable of stringing together a complete thought?

    How does sport reporting not having “a understanding of numbers yet alone stats” have to do with “everyone” having talent? And aren’t numbers and stats the same thing? What does “batters hit never .500 on the first pitch” mean? Who doesn’t understand and is probably unable? History is what?

    That post didn’t make even the slightest bit of sense, even taken in the loosest of contexts!

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  40. Even in that light your post still makes absolutely no cohesive sense. I see nothing that even remotely resembles a rational thought. And were you trying to say that Ed Wade was old or young when he made that deal? 40 is old to me but considered middle aged in general… either way it wasn’t a concrete example anyway.

    And he wasn’t “blaming age for the problem of the world”… he was just making fun of you old timers and your lameness.

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  42. I don’t think saying age is a problem is correct. Lots of young guys are pretty dismissive of stat nerds. And lots of old guys like me and Charlie Manuelk are pretty Sabermetrically astute. Age really has little to do with it.

    The old Scout vs. stat argument is stupid anyway. On MLB TV they had a discussion to answer the incredibly stupid question: “If you had to pick just one, would you go with the scout in the straw hat and stop watch or the stat geek?”

    Just a stupid, stupid topic. Anyone with a lick of sense uses every bit of information at his disposal. Scouting reports, stats, analysis, advanced stuff and even simple stuff. They all provide important information. Anyone who ignores any of it is just being a dope.

    Ex-ballplayers don’t lie being reduced to a bunch of numbers on a piece of paper. They equate over reliance on stats as dismissing all the hard work, determination, guts and grit and moxie that they possessed in order to make it and exell in an incredibly difficult sport. I understand why they feel that way, but I think they’re missing the point.

    All of their grit and hustle and determination and guts and “playing the game the right way” resulted in all of the great stats they put up. The two aren’t really mutually exclusive. To dismiss either is silly in my view.

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  43. nadol i am as versed in bill james as anyone in fact i have written a book on the 10 greatest hitters pitchers teams and seasons all time long before mlb network did. i.e. the greatest team 1907 08 cubs the entire staff had era,s below 2.00, the greatest season cobb in 1911 post war musial 1948 check it out. do you know why they called it the dead ball era? only one ball was used per game if a ball went into the stands and a fan didnt return it he was arrested.imagine what the ball looked like. i appreciate baseball history probably more than most, by the way read bill jenkinson do you know who he is, the master of titanic home runs. if you dont know who hugh alexander was your in trouble. the man who mentored paul owens and stick michael the man who among other things put together the yankees of the 90,s. ba and bp are valuable in the context of alerting people to rising stars but their ultimate aim is to sell books and pat themselves on the back. generally a great scout can see a player one game and know if hes going to be a player.yes sometimes their wrong but most times not. tell me when you saw golson you didnt know he couldnt tell a fastball from a curve, and he never will its a shame but thats the way it is. baseball is its history and future the day the old timers die off will be a sad day. and remember one day youll be telling your children or grandchilren how easy they have it.

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  44. John I enjoyed Stengel and his auto. If i were granted one wish baseball wise I would love a recording of Stengel and
    Berra having a conversation. To dismiss all the past is
    depriving yourself.

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  45. nw stengel was a trip plus nw while any information gathered is valuable i guarantee you casey knew from memory what to tell his pitchers to throw to get someone out. these ” old guys” have memories like elephants. i.e. how do you get dodds out high fastball away, jenkins low breaking ball.

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  46. One thing i dont like about the modern game is how the pitching coachs have taken the game away from the catchers
    You cant run a game looking into the dugout

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