Last year I took a look at how PECOTA, the Baseball Prospectus forecasting system, felt about Phillies prospects. The two metrics I used were UPSIDE and Beta, and I’ll use the same numbers again this year. For a full explanation of these metrics, check last year’s post here. Basically, the higher the UPSIDE the better, and the lower the beta, the more reliable the forecast is. PECOTA is unique, in that it takes many more factors into account than your typical projection system. If you’re unfamiliar with PECOTA, here is a good primer. For reasons that I don’t know, only three of our position player prospects have PECOTA’s, in Marson, Mayberry and Harman. My guess is that has to do with them being on the 40 man roster. But there are 13 pitching prospects with PECOTA’s, many of whom aren’t on the 40 man, so I have no idea. I’m going to try and get ahold of someone at BP and find out what the story is there. When/if Donald and others have forecasts, I’ll write up a supplemental post. But for now…

Continue reading PECOTA and Phillies prospects, 2009 edition →