Reader Top 30; #30

2009 Reader Top 30

Today we wrap up the Reader Top 30 for 2009. I want to thank everyone who has participated in the discussion and who regularly voted. I think the Reader Top 30 is what this site is all about, with lots of folks contributing to the discussion and sharing their opinions. Quintin Berry, after a long stay in the voting, takes #29, leaving a lot of interesting prospects for #30. Also, you can start to send your individual top 30 lists to me now, I’ll make a separate post asking for them when the voting for #30 is finished as well. Remember, phuturephillies at gmail dot com. So, lets wrap this up….

01. Carlos Carrasco, RHP
02. Lou Marson, C
03. Jason Donald, SS
04. Kyle Drabek, RHP
05. Michael Taylor, OF
06. Dominic Brown, OF
07. JA Happ, LHP
08. Travis D’Arnaud, C
09. Joe Savery, LHP
10. Zach Collier, OF
11. Jason Knapp, RHP
12. John Mayberry Jr, OF
13. Edgar Garcia, RHP
14. Antonio Bastardo, LHP
15. Julian Sampson, RHP
16. Drew Naylor, RHP
17. Mike Stutes, RHP
18. Anthony Hewitt, 3B
19. Sebastian Valle, C
20. Vance Worley, RHP
21. Freddy Galvis, SS
22. Travis Mattair, 3B
23. Damarii Saunderson, OF
24. Anthony Gose, OF
25. Andrew Carpenter, RHP
26. Mike Cisco, RHP
27. Colby Shreve, RHP
28. Jared Cosart, RHP/OF
29. Quintin Berry, OF
30.

58 thoughts on “Reader Top 30; #30”

  1. voted for De Fratus

    I think everyone’s personal top 15 will be similar but the bottom 15 will be quite interesting to compare.

    Can’t wait for some baseball.

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  3. Writing in Hamilton here on principle, so everybody can praise me when he’s hit .370 at Lakewood in June.

    Oddly enough, it looks like De Fratus will win, and I had him ranked 23rd on my list.

    – Jeff

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  4. Jeff O: I voted de Fratus (oddly enough, I had him at 22, so basically the same as you), but can I ride shotgun on the Hamilton bandwagon? He got some pub on the “Who is the 2009 version of Michael Taylor?” thread, and I think it’s warranted given his stellar college numbers. Good chance he bounces back next year.

    And I know I said this before, but there’s a number of intriguing guys that didn’t make the list. Between all of the “snubs,” I’d be surprised if a couple didn’t at least get a cup of coffee in the majors at some point.

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  5. I voted for slayden because he’s going to get a cup of coffee some time in the next year or two and who knows what he’ll do with it. Having someone at 30 who will get MLB at bats says more about our farm system than having some kid who might progress there.

    Great list and great purpose for this site. When I look at the phillies.com message board and see people talking about prospects with a great amount of ignorance I just want to post a link to your site to give them the benefit of not just James’ incredible insight into the farm system but also the great debates among all the posters on the site.

    (unfortunately I’ve been banned from posting over there:)

    I’m anxious to put together my top 30 and see how biased I am to “my” guys.

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  6. I voted Sergio Escalona. Posted good numbers and I good definitely see him getting a shot this year as a lefty out of the pen. Just a bit more proven here than JDF, although I do think JDF is top 30 worthy.

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  7. Voted for Slate over DeFratus, Pettibone, May, Castro, and Simon. Slate is young and projectible and misses a few more bats than DeFratus. I think I like May a little more than Pettibone as he has a chance to be more of a power arm.

    They are probably top 40 (not 30) material, but a few of the Latin American players at GCL deserve consideration also. Reginal Simon is very raw and projectible. He could easily jump 10-20 spots with a good 2nd year. Leandro Castro had a solid offensive debut and is a power/speed option for the future. Finally, Ebelin Lugo is only 18 and was virtually unhittable the 2nd half of the year. He’ll certainly play short season again, but is one to watch.

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  8. Pettibone, but several guys are worthy.

    Question on Slayden, why didn’t anyone take him in the Rule V?

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  9. Voted for Escalona. Everyone voting for projectables: I think it’s reasonable and this exercise is interpreted differently by all.

    My view is you can lump about 5-10 projectables together and not know who will really make it. DeFratus, Pettibone, Slate Chapman, Schwimer, etc. etc.–almost impossible to separate them. So I think of them in a separate category. To me votong for them is like voting for some candidate you have no clue about in November elections. You have to do it, but not very meaningful personally.

    So to make it meaningful, I like the Escalonas and the Slaydens. It’s like the difference between finding a $5 bill or a lottery ticket. The ticket is almost always worthless. The $5, at least you can get a Whopper meal.

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  10. I went with Pettibone– I like the scouting reports and at this point ranking guys is a crapshoot. Just going with my gut.

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  15. Very few of these putative prospects have
    major league tools. Michael Durant with all his numerous flaws is still young and has what is most sought -home run potential

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  16. RodeoJones Says:
    Question on Slayden, why didn’t anyone take him in the Rule V?
    You have too much faith in baseball people
    eg. Didnt the Pirates try desperately to trade McLouth
    and didnt 29 teams pass

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  19. nowheels, again, you can’t use an isolated incident to validate another single incident. I just want to hear from all the Slayden supporters what 29 other GM’s missed. At this point people usually get it right.

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  20. I voted De Fratus.

    Not a bad top 30! Fairly even split between pitchers and position players. Only three LHP unless one wins here. As a lefty, Escalona has an easier shot, particularly since he’s on the 40 man. Will he have more than a cup of coffee?

    I’m hoping the players who miss this list take it as a challenge, not an insult. Some players just have to make it against all odds and expectations. Chris Coste is proof it can happen.

    Great job everyone!

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  21. Well Rodeo the fact that he hits left handers better than right and most managers will switch anyway in my eyes makes him a potential pinch hitter/dh type at least.
    As for GM judgement just look at the signed free agent list every year (eg Gagne) (Eaton etc.).

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  22. When Bobby Abreu is getting one year/$5 million, it’s no surprise that a team is going to look outside the Rule 5 draft to find a corner outfielder. That type of player is not an attractive Rule 5 player. The type of players desired in the Rule 5 draft are pitchers (who you can hide in the bullpen) or versatile reserves. I don’t think it’s a general comment on Slayden that he was not picked.

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  23. Well put Alan i never quite looked at it that way but that is why we post and read to learn.
    BTW I do believe the Phils should put their prospects up front more. It is another way of getting people into the team and as far as putting pressure on the kids they live and have lived in a world of pressure all their lives. People should know who
    Taylor,Brown etc are not just us silly people

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  24. Vote for Escalona, again.. Think somebody not that far away from MLB could eke out the last spot on this prospect list. Should go over washed out AAA types and longer shots.

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  27. I’m not the least bit surprised that Slayden was not picked in the Rule 5 draft. He’s probably not quite ready to contribute in the majors as a hitter, he does not promise a huge upside and he has no use as a situationaly runner or outfielder. Unless I was the GM of the Pirates or Royals, I probably wouldn’t want him right now either.

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  29. Brad Harman. He hit 17 HR as a 22 yr-old infielder at AA. Who knows why his average nosedived? It may have been a fluke. He has the potential to have a break-out year this season in AA. Keep in mind that he is 14 months younger than Donald. Harman has the potential to be a below average MLB starter at SS, 2B, or 3B or more likely to be a utility player, as he already was for a few days in ’08.

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  30. I agree Brad harman is also considered an
    excellent fielding second baseman. He seems to be on the inconsistent side as a hitter and unfortunately he takes time adjusting to new levels . I thought he made solid contact in his short stint with the major league club.

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  31. Slayden would seem to be an ideal lefthanded bat off the bench for some team. Someone that an opposing manager would find it difficult to match him up against a particular pitcher since he hits both lefties and righties. Can’t forget his clutch pinch hit grand slam that got his team in the AFL championship game and his .400 average with RISP during Fall ball. He should see some action in ST games since only three outfield non roster invitees are listed though I would not be surprised to see them bring over Taylor, Brown and Berry from the minor league camp for a couple of swings in the split squad and B games.

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  32. Rodriguez, Julio CAR PWL 1 0 4.76 11.1
    I noticed the youngster got a few innings in winter bal
    great experience should help

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  33. Thanks for the link, nowheels… I’ve been looking for those stats for a while.

    Its kind of odd that Drabek made three of his five appearances in relief… he was pretty dominant in a small sample size, though.

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  34. I just can’t see the excitement for Slayden at #30 right now when the way things shook out you still have guys like Escalona and Naughton out there who are more likely to make themselves useful as reserve type players at the ML level or guys with tremendous upside like Pettibone and DeFratus.

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  35. Rodeo –

    I take it as a good sign about the state of the Phillies Farm System that we’re at #30 and a bunch of us seem to have some personal faves that aren’t on the list – I think I might have 5 guys who didn’t make the cut.

    – Jeff

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  36. Honestly I am just thrilled to be at 30 and arguing whether several really decent prospects will make the list. It feels like we’ve never been this deep before in legit prospects. I honestly expect at least 3 of those guys to at least get a “cup” in the majors.

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  38. I continue to believe that we should think of a prospect as someone who has the potential to someday become a starting position player, a starting pitcher, or a closer or set up guy in the majors. I don’t think a prospect is someone whose upside is only that of a bench guy or a long innings guy. This goes back to the upside vs the liklihood comparison. I want a prospect to have a high upside. Several of these pitchers have it. However, to me, Harman and Slayden (and Berry) don’t.

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  39. Murray
    We are here to have fun and test our knowledge and brains
    There is no better thing then uncovering a so called marginal
    prospect and watching him mature. We know there is a high probability that Staton will be in the majors in a couple of years most likely a star there is no skill in that.
    Two years ago I called a radio station to put the name
    Mc Louth upfront well of course i got shot down. I will
    call that show again.

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  40. Harman is a mystery to me. He has power and ability, but just has not made contact often enough. This is definitely his “fish or cut bait” year.

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  41. Agreed – the activity and interest at spot # 30 is very unusual. Last year, I kind of shut down at about 17 or 18 and didn’t care much. The overall talent level in the system seems to be shifting much higher and the timing couldn’t be better. In order for the MlB team to play at a high level, we’ll need to start replacing players on a regular basis. The first wave (Donald, Carrasco, and Marson) is just about here. The second wave (Taylor, Brown, Drabek) is a couple of years away.

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  42. Murray: That’s a logical point you make, but I value role players a little more than you because I project them towards being the high-value role player. If Slayden is a mirage (if there is a hole in his game that precludes him from performing in majors as he is now), then his value is nil. But I value prospects with the potential to become a role player like a Michaels, Dobbs. Delucci, etc. Not saying Slayden will be like Dobbs, but his minor league stats compare favorably, lower BA (.294 vs. .307) but higher OBP (.377 vs. .358) and OPS (.857 vs. 814). Neither are great fielders, but by all accounts they are not butchers either–average to slightly below avg defense.

    Here is the gist of my argument: If you are projecting these guys as average spare parts, you are correct, they should not be seen as prospective candidates to fill roles of low or disputable value. I am projecting them as potentially higjh-value role players. Having 3-5 of those guys every year make a HUGE difference on a team. If I have a guy who looks like that, I will say he is a prospect.

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  43. Dobbs being able to play all corner positions, IF and OF, at a comptent level, increases his value versus Slayden who is basically stuck at LF. Even if they put up similar lines Dobbs is still far ahead of him.

    I’m sorry to make it sound like I dislike the guy. I wish him the best and hope he hits 500 homeruns for the Phillies. I just don’t see it happening.

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  44. RodeoJones: Agree on the versatility issue. Slayden would have more potential value if Phils had acquired a RH left fielder. He might have then had a chance to start in LF 10-20+ games, pinch hit, play a few innings in RF from time to time–not in 2009 , but maybe 2010 or 2011. So his value is not optimal based on Phils makeup. But for guys like Dobbs, it’s the bat that they need. Slayden could get 150-200+ ABs as a 5th OF and lefty pinch hitter. This is predicated on him having an eye-opening year this year at LV, a point I made in the #29 thread.

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  47. DiamondDerby – to your point, could we see a Mayberry/Slayden platoon someday? I hope not, just because I want to see, from left to right, Taylor, Vic and D.Brown, but I think that’s the type of player you could be talking about there.

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  49. RodeoJones:

    No, I do not want to see a Mayberry/Slayden platoon. Only way I want to see Mayberry at all is if he takes off and becomes 75% Ryan Howard at the plate. Not likely for him. More likely he is a platoon player (at best) or 4th/5th OF. But there may not be a place for him after 2010, because I agree that 2011 is the time for Taylor, Vic and Brown. Maybe Brown gets another half season at AAA, depending on whether he can make it to Reading this year. So Mayberry may have a small window to break out and establish something.

    To me Slayden is not a full platoon player except in an emergency. And that is, if he makes it. I am just saying you keep an open mind on him and call him a prospct for a valuable bench role–tops. That does not mean he will ever reach that, only that he has done nothing to deny him the consideration and opportunity yet. If I had to predict anything, it would be a 5th OF-pinch hitter, as I said earlier. Hit maybe .270 with a 6-10 bombs in 200 ABs. Sometimes those guys contribute a little more after 2-3 years learning the majors, like Dobbs. I would give him about 1 chance in 4 to do that. My main point is that the lotto projection guys, as exciting as they are and as much as we need them, are about 1 chance in 10 or 20 to even sniff the majors. Of all those projectable guys, we might see 1 or 2 make it to AAA.

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  50. Very few teams draft double a outfielders knowing they would have to keep them on their active roster or offer them back. Slayden can hit—–he has not enjoyed much protection at any level but puts up consistant stats and lots of hard hit balls. He is not a butcher in the outfield but is certainly no speedster so the bat will be what gets him an opportunity. Don’t give other organizations too much credit—they focus on the guys getting the raves just as fans do. Slayden does not get raves but he will continue to produce and will be fun to watch at LV.

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  51. Its Troy Hanzawa.

    As to that whole protection thing, how many minor league pitchers are going to work that whole “pitch around” thing much, anyhow?

    If they need a potential bench player, many are available at low enough cost to lessen the need for the minor-league developed type , to be considered more of a prospect than higher upside types.

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  52. oh like Bruntlett who made Mario Mendoza look like a slugger
    the second half. You never know how a player will progress so if you are really happy the Bruntlett type . I have a Terry
    Harmon baseball card for you
    btw Even if you are right I would ditch Bruntlett for Ozuna

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  53. My problem is simple free agents get to play even when they dont deserve it. So the fewer the better.

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  54. Slayden would be able to play on the 1996-2002 Phillies teams…he’d have fit right in there. He has no place on a playoff team’s roster.

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  55. Let me think who was the DH or the sub for the regular last year
    they lost 4 of 6 Only two hits by the DH one by Howard
    one by Dobbs Bruntlett who subed for Howard had no hits in two games. Maybe not this year but Slayden MIGHT develop
    into a DH PH type
    btw why was SO-SO on the roster last year

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  56. nowheels: Slayden stinks, your not smarter than anyone in a major league baseball front office, and who cares who was on the Phillies roster last year, just drop it.

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  57. Heh, Philadelphia fans can be really amazing sometimes.

    Nowheels, I’m sure you realize that you are second guessing a team that won the World F**king Series(tm). Yeah, Taguchi was a waste of a roster spot, and the Phils (like most other National League teams) struggled with the DH, but jeez – enjoy the championship.

    And Pat Burrell – Slayden doesn’t stink, but realistically, his ceiling is “Jason Michaels,” which really isn’t all that great. I’m guessing if the Phils haven’t moved him along quicker, then maybe they don’t see him as anything more than a fringe major leaguer at best.

    – Jeff

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  58. ****btw why was SO-SO on the roster last year****

    Because team’s with Taguchi on their 25 man roster have been to 3 of the past 5 WS winning 2 of them. So Taguchi is the keystone of any successful World Champion.

    Which is why the Cubs gave him a contract so quickly.

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