Taking a look at the potential starting rotation in 2009 for the Iron Pigs, the first two spots will be filled by two of three candidates, JA Happ, Kyle Kendrick, and Carlos Carrasco with the other, more than likely being named the Phillies #5 starter absent a terrific spring from Chan Ho Park.
Happ, 26, is a tall thin lefty who has spent the last 2 seasons in AAA, with a rather extended callup to the Phillies late in the season, that produced 3 out of 4 quality starts. With the Iron Pigs last year, Happ was 8-7 with a 3.60 ERA in 135 innings pitched. He was among the IL leaders in strikeouts, averaging more than one per inning with 151, and had a very good WHIP of 1.21. It is my belief that Happ is the leading candidate among the three for #5 starter role and he has proven himself at AAA and has pitched well in his opportunites (albeit limited) with the Phillies).
Kyle Kendrick, still only 24, has 50 major league starts and 21 wins for the Phillies under his belt but struggled mightily late in the year last year losing a good deal of confidence it appeared. Kendrick made the jump to the Phillies directly from Reading two years ago, and while having initial success, his sinker stopped sinking, leading to ugly numbers last year. Kendrick was 11-9 with a 5.49 ERA for the Phils, giving up well over a hit an inning, striking out few, and posting a WHIP of 1.61. Kendrick needs to regain his confidence and the Lehigh Valley rotation would be a good place to do that until the inevitable injuries and need for a spot starter strike the Phillies.
Carlos Carrasco is the best prospect among the three, projecting as a number 2-3 starter in the Majors once he arrives. The Phillies are taking their time with Carrasco, as well they should with a talent like his. Last year, Carrasco was up and down for Reading but very good for the Iron Pigs in his six late season starts, dominating in several of them. Between Reading and Lehigh Valley, Carrasco was 9-9 with a 3.69 ERA in 151.1 innings (25 starts). He struck out 155 and walked 58, finishign with a WHIP of 1.35. Carrasco has two quality major league pitches (fastball and change) and continues to develop his curveball to major league quality.
An educated guess is that Andrew Carpenter, soon to be 24, will be the #3 starter for the Iron Pigs. After an excellent 2007 in Clearwater, Carpenter struggled last year, after coming into camp out of shape, taking almost the whole season to show consistency in Reading. Carpenter has 4 pitches that he throws (fastball, slider, splitter and change), although none of those pitches are a dominant pitch. In time split between Clearwater, Reading and one game in Lehigh Valley, Carpenter was 9-12 with a 4.59 in 153 innings (25 starts). He walked 42 and struck out 106, ending the season with a WHIP of 1.35.
The #4 and 5 spots in the rotation are question marks with the ‘Pigs losing some reliable startes from last years roster (Mazone and Walrond). One of the two remaining spots is likely to be filled by Yorman Bazardo, 25, who spent last year in the Tigers organization, being used mostly as a starter for AAA Toledo. The stats were ugly in his second full year at AAA, as Bazardo went 4-13 with a 6.72 ERA and a WHIP of 1.70. That followed a year in which he went 10-6 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, also at Toledo. Here’s for hoping he returns to his 2007 form. As he is still only 25, Bazardo is worth a shot.
32 year old Justin Lehr and Rule 5 pickup Robert Mosebach are leading contenders to compete for the #5 spot. Lehr pitched last year for Louisville (AAA) in the Reds organization and was 6-2 with a 2.10 ERA and a excellent WHIP of 0.96 in 16 appearances (8 starts). In his two years prior, both at AAA, Lehr was predominately a starter with an ERA under 4 both years. He would provide needed consistency to the rotation.
Mosebach, 24, was picked up in the Rule 5 draft out of the Texas organization. He three at AA last year starting 29 games and going 9-12 with a 4.62 ERA in 177.2 innings. He had a high WHIP of 1.57 that must be improved upon.
Phuture Phillies 
I’m not a huge Amaro fan, but we have to admit he’s done a decent job at stocking Lehigh Valley with plenty of arms and bats that could work in a pinch for the Phils if need be.
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I’m betting Carpenter starts at Reading…too many minor league free agents ahead of him (which is unfortunate). Also, Mosebach would need to be offered back to Texas if he doesn’t stay on the 25 man roster…of course TX could always just tell us to keep him.
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I think Texas will tell us to keep Mosebach. Additionally, there are have been some interesting recent comments made by Steve Noworyta, the Phillies Farm Director about Carpenter. “I think what happened this off-season and how he prepared himself will tell whether he goes to Double A or Triple A, but my gut feeling is that he will be in Triple A.” (Source: Morning Call, The Hog Blog, Jeff Schuler)
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I like the depth. As recently as last year, we were concerned about an injury to a starter in Philly. I hope Happ makes the Phils rotation. Carrasco will be there soon enough. I’m not giving up on Kendrick just yet. I’d like to see him get another pitch or two that can keep batters guessing. He’s young and he’s been very valuable top the Phils. They wouldn’t have made the playoffs in 2007, if he didn’t do a gutzy job. Moyer can help him immensely too.
If nothing else, this depth provides a lot of trade possibilities. When clubs come looking for starting pitching, Happ, Kendrick and Park will look tempting (not to mention Myers and Blanton). We’ll still have Carrasco waiting to be a mid-rotation starter. On paper everything is rosy.
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Here’s hoping Happ wins that job with the Phils. But Kendrick/Carrasco/Carpenter is a fine front three for triple-A, and if Bazardo and Mosebach rounded out the rotation that’s five guys who are at least semi-plausible for the majors. My pessimistic thought is that we’ll need probably three of them at some point or another during the season–our major league starters took on a lot of mileage last year–but it beats the hell out of turning to whoever is the current equivalent of Paul Abbott.
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Its good to have this depth as I really have a bad feeling that we’ll need it.
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I can’t see Happ going back to AAA at all. He’s done 2 years there and was successful last year. If he pitched in another organization, he’d be in the starting rotation already. The guy is 26 now and needs to get some service time that he’s earned. Charlie kept saying all last summer that he sees him a a starter. So do I. The Park signing threw a wrench into things. Happ will just have to out-pitch him in March or work out of the ‘pen as another lefty. Forget about Kendrick, he’ll be the one back in AAA imo.
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How many options does Happ and Kendrick have? I imagine that the Phils would rather lose Kendrick if they had their chioce if they both have limited options left. The last couple years Park has not performed well as a starter, he has been better as a 6-7th inning guy. Rather have Happ the no# 5 starter.
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Wasn’t Yorman Bazardo a legit prospect at one point?
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He was suspended for some reason by the Marlins maybe along with Allison but around the same time I have no idea why
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This just in. Texas won’t keep Mosebach. You know why? They drafted him from Anaheim. This big raftload of minor league free agents that’s gonna’ keep everybody in Reading? Nothin’ to it. Going into last season Bazardo was rated as Detroit’s 6th best prospect according to Baseball America.
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Some minor league FAs that will probably be in LV:
Justin Lehr will be starting for the IPigs. Phils signed him as a former big-leaguer and gave him a ST invite, which usually means they think he’s at least back-up starter material, which also means he’ll need to stay stretched out in AAA.
Mike Koplove will be a major player in the bullpen unless he makes the big-league team.
Jake Woods is a former big-league starter but has had more success recently as a reliever.
I hope the Angels take Mosebach back–he doesn’t miss enough bats to succeed in the majors.
Most of the Minor League FAs are at best starter/reliever types, and won’t take innings away from younger prospects.
Dave Borkowski and Blaine Neal are late-inning relievers, and Hernandez, Pope, Mackintosh, and Shortslef might go to Reading.
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Let me add that I think the IPigs starting pitching is quite weak this year, and that the offense will be good but the starters may struggle, leading to some of the MinorLFAs that are starter/relievers making quite a few starts for the IPs.
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I think Kendrick may well have all 3 of his options left. I don’t think he was on the 40 man roster when called up from Reading, although he may well have been. I’m guessing Happ is out of options, although he may have 1 left.
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Allentown, check out the 40 man roster link at the top…info about options is listed there…I think they’re accurate, or at least as best I can tell.
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Why would anaheim not take back Mosebach? they don’t have to keep him on their roster, so i’m sure they’d like him as a AAA arm as much as the phils would. but on the other hand, if his stuff doesn’t play up in the pen that makes him wort keeping, his career as a starter probably pans out as a AAAA arm anyway.
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My gut tells me that Happ starts the year in the Phils pen as the second lefty and that Kendrick is the fifth starter.
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OK, good for us and bad for HApp that he has that 1 option left. That may be his ticket to start the season in AAA.
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Happ will probably be the second lefty out of the pen until Romero gets back.
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i agree with Greg
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