Reader Top 30; #22

2009 Reader Top 30

We march on toward #30, with Freddy Galvis easily taking the 21st spot, grabbing 91 out of the 240 votes cast. There was also quite a surge in write-in votes, with Damarii Saunderson netting 4, Justin De Fratus 2, Javon Moran 3, and a few others with 1. Saunderson will re-enter the voting for #22 since he had the highest write-in total, and Moran will replace Naughton, as he ended up with more votes in the last poll. More below…

01. Carlos Carrasco, RHP
02. Lou Marson, C
03. Jason Donald, SS
04. Kyle Drabek, RHP
05. Michael Taylor, OF
06. Dominic Brown, OF
07. JA Happ, LHP
08. Travis D’Arnaud, C
09. Joe Savery, LHP
10. Zach Collier, OF
11. Jason Knapp, RHP
12. John Mayberry Jr, OF
13. Edgar Garcia, RHP
14. Antonio Bastardo, LHP
15. Julian Sampson, RHP
16. Drew Naylor, RHP
17. Mike Stutes, RHP
18. Anthony Hewitt, 3B
19. Sebastian Valle, C
20. Vance Worley, RHP
21. Freddy Galvis, SS
22.

52 thoughts on “Reader Top 30; #22”

  2. PLEASE add a Q Berry there is a problem with the voting machine I checked the results before voting and it said
    i voted. But leave it to me to screw things up.

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  3. I voted for Mattair.

    I was comparing 4 of our 19 year olds (who were 19 last year). Two Travis’, D’Arnaud & Mattair, Hewitt and a little known guy named Leandro Castro. D’Arnaud is already in our top 10 and he absolutely deserves it. Mattair didn’t exactly eat up Lakewood but he spent the whole year there and has been at a higher level longer than the other 3. Hewitt is really tough for me. I keep comparing him to Michael Jordon. Yes, the former Chicago Bull. Hewitt is an amazing athletic specimen but will be ever be able to hit a baseball. I’m not sold. When MJ said he was taking up baseball, I couldn’t see him being anything more than a gate attraction for some minor league team. I was right. Hewitt won’t even be that. I’m not giving up on him but I need to see something this year from him. Hewitt’s already made the top 20 but mainly because he was our #1 draft choice.

    The last guy is Castro. He’s totally under the radar but his stats make Hewitt look like a Little Leaguer. .298 BA compared to Hewitt’s <.200. OPS .739 versus Sammy Hagar type, :I can’t drive 55 “ (.555). They both played in the GCL at 19. He plays the OF but that could be where Hewitt ends up. Does this guy have a better chance of making it than Hewitt? Or Mattair? I won’t compare him to D’Arnaud. I have him in my top 30. I’m just wondering whether he’ll show up in our poll.

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  4. I guess that Andrew Carpenter ought to voted into this or similar spot sometime soon.

    Javon Moran, I got as 26 or something. Maybe the prospect age thing works against him, maybe Jeremy Slayden would be ahead of him if it was an age-free evaluation.

    I would hope Leandro Castro would work in before this concludes.

    As all these pitchers work in, would 40 man roster occupant Sergio Escalona work in somewhere?

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  5. anyone see keith law voted the phillies farm 11th in the majors. mainly because of dom brown and michael taylor having big years.

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  6. The Cisco bandwagon just hit a bump and I fell off. Fortunately, the Travis Mattair Fan Club allowed me back in. Thanks guys!

    Seriously, I’ve been pimping for Mattair since he was drafted, and while he might be one of those “toolsy” types, from what I’ve seen, he seems to have a good baseball sense. I think this year will be a breakthrough year – and I actually had him ranked around 18 on my original top 30 list.

    And on a somewhat related note, there is one poster on this list who routinely mentions how D’Arby Myers was getting shafted on base hits that were being credited. His complaints were hyberbolic – he claimed that D’Arby was being “robbed” of a hit at least once a game. I can’t help but wonder if there is a bit of truth in that though – Given that Mattair and Galvis had very high error totals, and Mitchell had even higher error totals, it makes me think that Lakewood’s official scorer is quick to give a guy an “E.” From my personal experience (one game in July), Mattair was credited with an error on a slow chopper that he had to range about 15 feet to his left on – a play that would’ve been a highlight film play had he made it. So the moral of my story: The amount of errors that the infielders at Lakewood have may need to be taken with a grain of salt. Hell, he probably would’ve given Longoria an error on Ruiz’s game three roller in the WS.

    – Jeff

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  9. Travis Mattair played his second year out of high school at a level ahead of his age in full season ball as a starter. He struggled at first but improved throughout the season.

    What you are looking for in a young prospect is the ability to adjust. Mattair did just that.

    D’Arnoud, Mattair, Michael Taylor, Julian Sampson. I think the 2007 draft is going to put at least 4 guys on the 25 man roster.

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  10. Anyone have the skinny on Mike Schwimer . I see lot of k’s
    Yeah he is 22 but that not his fault. Future closer?????

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  11. Again with Schwimer
    seems to be a real ground ball pitcher and has only given up
    5 hr in the last three years of college and none in the minors
    call me a convert. Please anyone know about his stuff

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  12. Also with Schwimmer, don’t forget the high strikeout totals -something like 60 in 40 innings. I didn’t realize that his groundout totals were that high.

    I have a feeling he might slip through the cracks in our top 30, but could move quickly this year if he continues to perform at that level.

    – jeff

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  16. Mattair over Cosart for me here. Mattair is mostly about tools and potential, but his second half small improvements hopefully bode well for the future.

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  17. Writing in Gose. 2nd round pick with great tools (speed, arm strength, defense).

    Mattair, as someone who was drafted for power, has not shown any yet. .254/.321/.328

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  18. Jeff O: don’t jump off the Cisco bandwagon… I’m just jumping on!

    I’d been hesitant on Cisco for a little while, figuring that there was a good chance he was just a polished college arm having success in a small sample size. But BA says his fastball is up to 92, he has decent secondary stuff, and a good feel for pitching. And when you add that to these numbers…

    57.1 IP — 8.16 K/9 — 0.78 BB/9 — 61.2 GB% — 1.76 DICE

    …and the fact that he’s shown no noticeable platoon split, you’ve got some real reason for optimism going forward.

    Mattair could put all his tools together and jump into the Top 10 next year, but I have a couple of remaining guys ahead of him right now.

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  19. Time for Mattair. Still hasn’t shown the on-field performance, but he did skip from GCL to Lakewood and that is a pitcher’s park. Here’s hoping for a good 2009 for him n the slightly friendlier Clearwater park.

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  21. Damarii Saunderson is one to watch out for, I watched him for 2 weeks while in rookie ball, he has some tool and amazing bat speed , I know he got hurt and missed half of July and all of August , any news if he is recovered now?

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  23. Now that Galvis is in——I will go with Slayden. Yes he is old but has hit at every level. We don’t seem to accord him respect.

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  24. I voted Mike Cisco, though Mattair is reasonable. The midrange doubles power is there, I see room for improvement.

    AFA Leandro Castro, four walks in 161 at bats is a terrible ratio, especially at an older age in the GCL. Even Hewitt showed more discipline than that (damning with faint praise I know).

    Myers, no amount of official scoring is going to make his stat lines look good. From appearances it looks like he just got hit lucky in 2006. Looking at BB/K ratios is important for hitters to get a read on their ability, IMO

    I like Gose, Quintin Berry, Carpenter going forward. Robert Mosebach also may deserve consideration near the end. He’s technically a Phillies’ prospect.

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  26. How did javon get on? I have at least a dozen guys ahead of him not being considered for a vote yet. shreve,naughton,gose,schwimmer,defratus,cosart,harmon, rizzotti,durant,slayden,brummet,overbeck.

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  27. Mattair again on his upside potential (followed by Gose on his potential). Its about the upside potential. To say another guy is better now, while its true, doesn’t look at potential upside which might be the truer measuer of valuing a prospect. Jeremy Slayden, Q Berry and Moran are all definitely better than Mattair today but the most the three of them will ever be is the 25th man while Mattair could be more. By the way, Castro is a very nice all around player but probably in the same mold as Berry/Moran.

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  30. I went with Mattair here. He’s young enough to hope for a breakout season and his potential is high. Looking at his pre/post all star splits from last season, he pretty much improved across the board. Higher OBP, higher slugging, better k/bb ratio. That gives me some hope that he’ll continue getting better.

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  31. Cisco’s a hack. That 50-5 K:BB ratio was a mirage. Hell, those five walks all came at Williamsport. If anything, he should’ve have gone after those guys and started walking people when he got to Lakewood. That guy will never amount to anything. I can’t believe I voted for him for the last ten slots. Moose Mattair all the way!!! 8^)

    – Jeff, who will shake his head if Cisco finally wins today

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  32. I thought you guys might be interested in this link. It shows the 19 pitchers who threw for over 3400 pitches last season. The artical goes on to say that historically anywhere from 15-60 percent of these pitchers go on to have a major arm issue the next year. This is of particular interest to the phillies because Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, and Joe Blanton are all on the list. I thought this would be a good site to post it on because that means more the likely some of our young pitchers we have been ranking for the past 2 months are going to be needed to pitch in the coming season due to injury.

    How do you think we would fair if all three of the pitchers listed went down for an extended time. Out farm is deeper, but do you think we would be able to survive?

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  33. I don’t think its unusual for teams that go deep into the playoffs to having pitching problems the following year – didn’t it happen to Chicago in 2006?

    Anyway, if the Phils do have a few starters go down, I think they could weather it – assuming that Happ is the fifth starter, then Kendrick, Carrasco and Carpenter would be waiting in the minors. Park or Durbin could switch to starter and some bullpen arms could come up from the minors (whoever seems ready). Plus there will always be some organiztional filler guys in AAA.

    – Jeff

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  34. I agree Leandro Castro needs to make the list soon.

    On the 3400 pitch guys, Hamels is certainly a worry. A lot of tough pitching at the end of pennant race and post-season. Also a big increase over prior year, especially for a young arm.

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  35. cisco again. Javon Moran??? Didn’t the Phils release him or lose him somehow, and then resign him as a free agent (he says too lazy to look it up himself)?

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  36. I’m voting Cisco again but I would vote Quintin Berry or Justin De Fratus over Mattair if Cisco were off the board.

    In fact, I have Chapman, Carpenter, Slate, Naughton and Escalona over Mattair. Gotta admit it’s the numbers that scare me off.

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  38. something seems screwy with the polling software. I voted Gose last round without posting anything, but I only did so after reading another poster had said they done so already, so he should have had at least 2 votes. Furthermore, I cannot imagine voters are taking into consideration that the Phillies devoted 772K (!!!) to sign Anthony Gose while taking a flyer on Saunderson and spending a small fraction of that to sign him. A very small fraction. No one on this board has any authority better than that to evaluate these two players. 50 at bats in the GCL is beyond meaningless. But a business investing 772K in an investment is not.

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  39. I’m not happy with my editing in the previous post. Please don’t let the somewhat retarded syntax detract from the sentiment.

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  40. Yes, Gose has potential and deserves to be top 30. Other than Hewitt, whom I don’t think deserved to be as high on our list as he is, we haven’t really come to the potential-only guys yet. I think Shreve and Cosart are the best of those, with Gose 3rd. I’m probably anal about this, but I’d put Hewitt 4th in this grouping.

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  41. I don’t know a darned thing about Mattair from a personal level, but I think they’re making a mistake if they promote him to Clearwater. Why not let him start in Lakewood and see how he does there? Why put him in another place where he is likely to struggle again? Folks, let’s face it, for all his potential, he did not have a really good year at Lakewood last year.

    I don’t get it.

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  42. On the Phils pitchers (I know, I know, it’s OFF TOPIC, but I can’t help responding), I don’t see Cole Hamles having major arm troubles. The team is very careful about how they use him and he paces himself well with all the change-ups he throws.

    Myers and Blanton, however, may be concerns. As well as he did in the second half, Myers is wildly inconsistent and would seem to me to be the type of guy who, all of sudden, could break down. Blanton could have arm problems or be the kind of who, one day, can’t break 87 MPH. That having been said, he won me over a bit in the post season. He is completely unflappable – his persona reminds a lot of David Well – which, believe it or not, is probably a good thing on this straight-laced team. Blanton is as loose as can be.

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  43. I’m with you Catch 22 – I think Mattair should repeat at Lakewood, and I’m probably one of his biggest boosters on this site. Considering that he skipped a level last year, his development won’t suffer. Plus, by playing against a “lower” level of competition, he could come out clobbering the ball and thus improve his confidence. If all is going well, he could always move up to High-A midseason.

    – Jeff

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  44. Yes Gose should be in the top 30 , but don’t be fooled by Saunderson 15th round pick this kid has the same kind of talent , they both have all the tools, Saunderson will hit for more power I believe Gose has an amazing arm and speed, Both great athletes

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  45. I’m amazed at the discourse. Last year, when we were doing our top 30 on this site, I was really grasping to find someone to put in the last 5 spots. Already this year, I’m looking at the list of guys that are left and I’m having a hard time slotting the last 9 or so. I have more than 9 guys left that would have been in our top 30 last year.

    Overbeck hasn’t been on my radar yet because I’m not sure what position he can play. 3rd’s a stretch and I’m not sure about the OF. Saunderson’s a guy who wasn’t even on my list and last year he probably would have made the list. Shreve, Gose, Cosart, Schwimmer and more. Escalona’s a guy who’s moving fast but he’s a reliever. Don’t be surprised if he’s not in Philly in 2 years. Naughton’s on the 40 man roster and could be a “catcher in the rye” (Sorry about that Keith). Chapman was mentioned. I thought he should have moved to Clearwater during last year but he got caught in the numbers game. Where do we put Correa (sp)? You know I like Leandro Castro.

    At the very least, maybe the quantity of prospects has increased. With more quantity there’s a greater chance that one or two of these guys will surprise even us. we’ll look back and say, “that guy was my 32nd prospect and he’s know holding down a full time job.

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  46. Agreed, looking at last year’s last when a guy like Carpenter,who even after he had a great year had a 5th starter ceiling, was in the top 10. This year #17 has a 3rd starter ceiling. Pretty incredible and a testament to the front office.

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  47. try this one on Rosenberg 36 inn 52k 1.00 era.
    or Troy Hanzawa not too shabby. And they havent gotten
    a word. Looks like a great draft to me. More high ceiling
    guys next year since we have a solid base.

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  48. One reason u dont see Hamels have injuries Catch 22 is
    He wont let them abuse his arm. At times there has been
    open conflict. The team backed off because they had to.
    Plus he is now over 25 a maturation point for me when
    circulation has hit nears its peak level.
    Note: I believe Muscle development=circulation development

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  49. Mattair for me. But I agree we are overlooking Escalona. He may pitch in Philly this year and could wind up being a good lefty in the pen. That imminent contrinution trumps the teenage lottery tickets, IMO–not that I don’t value them, but I think you group then way down until you get a read on them.

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  50. If a Loogy is a sure thing, maybe. But Escalona has a career walk rate of over 4 per nine, and he’s already 24.

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  51. Escalona’s walks are a clear issue, but he also had 89 Ks in 69 IPs last season, and has very good groundball tendencies. Sounds like JC Romero actually. Relievers may not be as exciting as position players or starting pitchers, but we all know a lefty out of the bullpen can be a valuable player. And Escalona has got a much better shot of making it to the majors than anybody we’ve got in SS ball who might make this list. I’ll definitely be voting for him soon.

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