Reader Top 30; #21

2009 Reader Top 30

Vance Worley rounds out our Top 20, grabbing 86 of the 275 votes cast, good for 31% of the vote. Andrew Carpenter came out of nowhere, grabbing 36 votes finishing behind Freddy Galvis (60) and Travis Mattair (40) in 4th spot. Saunderson, Shreve, Roth, Schwimer, and Bolsenbroek received write-in votes. I’m going to add Roth to the #21 voting since no one received multiple write-ins. For those of you who are finding this process laborious, the only thing I can say is, there isn’t a whole lot of news in January, and unless we want to have the same circular debates we had all of last season, this is something to at least pass the time. I’ve been strapped for time of late, but I have a few pieces I want to write in the next few weeks. When the Reader Top 30 voting finishes up, I’ll take individual lists and organize them for everyone to see and compare, and then I’ll be putting out my Top 30. And then it should be spring training time, so we’ll have more to discuss. So yeah. Lets move on to #21…

01. Carlos Carrasco, RHP
02. Lou Marson, C
03. Jason Donald, SS
04. Kyle Drabek, RHP
05. Michael Taylor, OF
06. Dominic Brown, OF
07. JA Happ, LHP
08. Travis D’Arnaud, C
09. Joe Savery, LHP
10. Zach Collier, OF
11. Jason Knapp, RHP
12. John Mayberry Jr, OF
13. Edgar Garcia, RHP
14. Antonio Bastardo, LHP
15. Julian Sampson, RHP
16. Drew Naylor, RHP
17. Mike Stutes, RHP
18. Anthony Hewitt, 3B
19. Sebastian Valle, C
20. Vance Worley, RHP
21.

59 thoughts on “Reader Top 30; #21”

  1. I’ll take the slick glove of Galvis here, if he keeps progressing on offense he could rocket through the system.

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  2. If you folks are going to vote for either Galvis or Mattair at this position remember that Derrick Mitchell had a better year at the same level. My vote goes to Q Berry.

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  3. Except that Mitchell is three years older, a 2B, and his fielding percentage there was quite poor (recognizing that fielding percentage isn’t everything). If you took defense into consideration, I would bet that Galvis saved enough runs to make up for the difference in OPS.

    One thing that just occured to me here. The Blueclaws had quite a few successful pitchers. Is it possible Galvis had an influence on that? I’m picking Galvis. His strikeout to walk ratio shows an understanding of plate discipline, so I think he’ll progress on offense.

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  8. If the reports are accurate, Galvis is the best fielding shortstop anywhere in the organization. Given his size, I thought he more than held his own at the plate and has nowhere to go but up and I suspect he’ll fill out and get a lot stronger over time. With that, I’ll cast my vote for him.

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  10. This is a tough one i like everyone. I must retire to my den of solitude and consult the spirits BRB

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  11. “Who is Bolsonbroek?”

    A kid they drafted who is from the Netherlands but had gone to an american college. Supposedly a hard thrower- but more or less someone threw his name out there to sound original without being realistic.

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  13. Still undecided but first a question
    Is it possible that Jordan Ellis is another steal underachier college guys. I know he is older but morek’s then innings 4-0
    I for one will be watching
    ok Berry or “Q” as he is known in these parts

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  14. I’m debating whether I should hop off the Cisco bandwagon until it looks like he’s going to win. Today looks to be Galvis’ day, then probably Carpenter and Moose Mattair (who is a far better prospect than Derrick Mitchell, IMO). At 21, Cisco might have been old for Lakewood, but he did dominate as would be expected.

    – Jeff

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  16. I went for Galvis again, and this time the early returns are good since he’s got the lead. By all accounts his glove is spectacular and as he fills out his frame he should get stronger. Plus, as others have pointed out, the plate discipline he’s shown is a positive sign that he’ll continue to improve offensively.

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  18. Mattair. On reputation among the draft experts here. Outstanding physical makeup for 3B and has performed in spurts. Needs to break out and be consistent. Our need at this position also influenced me.

    Galvis was close in my mind.

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  20. I voted for Mattair again as I think he has a chance to be very good. Galvis can field but his hitting is a question for me and Carpenter just looked so mediocre last year I can’t vote for him. My next pick will probably be Gose, another kid with a chance to be very good. We all approach this list differently. Some vote for Berry who I think has a real chance to be a 5th outfielder in the big leagues but he’ll never start while I look for guys with larger upside even if that potential is farther away.

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  23. Forget about Mitchell. He has Loblaw’s (sp?) Disease. He must have thrown away 25 balls last season from 30 feet or less. Galvis is definitely the real thing. And he loves the game… almost childlike. But Berry is being missed here, and he is the real deal.

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  25. Mitchell is only 21, so being three years older then Galvis isn’t that important. Showed the most offense amount the three and can play all three position. I’ve seen all three play extensively and see promise in all of them. This is just a reminder that Mitchell should be considered part of the equation.

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  26. ” Marfis Says:
    January 20, 2009 at 3:03 pm
    Knoblauch”

    That was one impressive interpretation out of ‘Loblaw’.

    Mitchell has been impressive in spurts- i’ve seen him play a bit as well, but he has physical ability but not a good feel for playing the game- realistically he’s likely going to be in Indy ball in 2 years.

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  29. After finally getting Vance some love, I went with Cisco. I think it’s time for JDF to pick up some steam and at least be on the ballot. I am speaking, of course, of Justin de Fratus. Anyone with a “de” in their name deserves to be considered.

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  30. Back from a little trip to Jamaica… hope I didn’t miss much (other than cold weather)!

    @ Airborneranger: I’ll admit to never having seen Mitchell play, so I’ll gladly take your word for it that he’s got some natural ability. But a questionable fielding 21-year old 2B who just OPSed .698 with poor plate discipline can’t possibly go ahead of about 15 to 20 other names here.

    I went with Galvis here, and Catch 22 f/k/a H Man outlined the reasons exactly: slick fielding SS, possibility to be a decent contact hitter as his frame fills out. The plate discipline is already there, and while he probably winds up no better than a 7-hole hitter, you see the value that guys like Omar Vizquel, Jason Bartlett and Adam Everett bring to their clubs with their phenomenal gloves.

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  31. Mitchell has played full seasons at both shortstop and third base. Why I make mention of him is he has improved his offensive and power numbers at each level as he has moved up. Usually it’s the other way around, as they move up numbers decrease. As for errors Mattair had 26 and Galvis 21, Mitchell 33. All three have a higher then usual number. I’m not say Mitchell is better or even a better prospect. I’m just saying he’s a sleeper who if he has a break out year will become an honest prospect.

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  32. And I’m telling you he has Loblaw’s Disease (Canadian grocery store). Almost incurable.

    …snickering quietly…

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  33. I look forward to another few days of voting for Mattair. Upside is the reason. If it comes together, he could be a star. If it comes together for Galvis, he could be John McDonald.

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  34. I think he has a higher upside than John McDonald (who is quietly one of the top 1 or 2 defensive SS in baseball right now). His bat might play a bit better if it all comes together.

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  36. I think, if it all comes together for Galvis, Friar is right that you are looking at a player like Omar Vizquel. I see so much room for growth (literally and figuratively) to what is already an impressive fielding talent and I have a hard time passing him by at this slot. By the way, if he progresses as I expect, it could be a good 2 or 3 years before we really even begin to see the type of hitter he can become.

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  37. On Mattair – I don’t doubt that he has potential, but, if you look at his first two minor league seasons, his performance has been consistently undewhelming, to say the least.

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  38. Catch, Mattair outperformed Galvis in just above every statistical category in ’08. Both played a full season at Lakewood, with Mattair collecting 2 more at-bats. Granted, Mattair is one year older than Galvis, and I am positive that Galvis is the much better defender, however, how can you say one underperformed and the other is a tiny little ball of hitting potential just waiting to explode? I think that a lot of people are overvaluing Galvis because not much is known about him, sort of a mystery wrapped in a riddle and we are all intrigued. Mattair, meanwhile, seems to get discounted because of the early expectations that were placed on him from being a high draft pick at a position of dire need. Those are just my thoughts. Anyway, if you would like to explain your reasoning Catch I would enjoy listening.

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  39. Interesting discussion. I agree with those who feel Shreve and Cosart are low on the list. This is natural, since they are new draftees, who haven’t done anything yet, and we have only scouting reports, for the most part. If all goes well, they will shoot up the list in future years. Mattair is also a guy with potential and he is relatively young for Lakewood, so he could well break out next season, without a double jump. Comparing him to Galvis is difficult, but a few things tilt in Galvis’ favor for me. The year younger is certainly one thing. Expecting less offense from a SS than a 3B is another. The superior defensive skills of Galvis for his position is a really big factor. Galvis also seems a better prospect to project increased size/strength onto than Mattair, who is already big. Galvis is not a great prospect to project increased size, however, since he is not speedy to begin with and increased size may make him too slow.

    In any event, the OPS gap between Mattair and Galvis is not huge, and neither has put up a satisfactory OPS at any stop to date.

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  41. What a large difference between the two sites. Scout.com just posted Shreve at prospect #40 in their count down & he’ll land top 25 in this one….Go figure?

    I vote for Cisco (then De Fratus).

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  42. I went with Galvis on the combination of performance and fielding tools. Still don’t know if he is anything better than a backup IF if his offense does not pick up.

    Others I would consider here are Mattair, Gose, Cosart and Shreve. The last 2 are hard to rate but they should be somewhere in the top 30. Not a huge Cisco fan until he moves up a level or two. I suppose Carpenter should be somewhere near here as he is at least a fringe major leaguer already.

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  44. Halopan, just went to scout.com and was very disapointed in what they think of our prospects. No top 10 ss(no donald) no top 20 outfielder(no brown,taylor)1top 50 pitching prospect(no drabek) 0 top 10 c (no marson, d’arnaud, valle) wow! other teams had multiple players at a position. Are we all overvaluing or are they under valuing us?

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  45. Shreve wouldn’t be anywhere near #25 on my list. He first has to show that he is recovered from TJ surgery and is actually pitching somewhere..

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  46. Marky mark, Keith Law has a post today ranking the Phillies’ system 12th in the league. Law notes the emergence of Taylor and Brown as the primary reasons for the improvement.

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  48. From what I remember, Shreve was a first or second round-type player until he blew his arm out. I’d be hesitant to rank him anywhere because we don’t know how well he is going to recover. Does anyone know when he should be ready to pitch again? He’s certainly an intriguing player, and the Phils made a nice gamble in picking him.

    – Jeff

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  50. I know this might sound crazy, but we have enough “prospects” to really do a top 35 at the minimum. Might be fun to keep going until we run out of names, ecspecially considering that ST doesn’t begin until the 19th…

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  52. According to comments by KLaw at BBTF the list went up today briefly by accident; they’ve taken it back down and will put it back up tomorrow along with top 5-10 prospects in each organization and top 10 at each position.

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  55. Marky mark,

    I was just speaking in terms of their “top 100”. They released #40 today & it was Shreve (who would appear to fall into PP top 25). I am not sure who’s doing the Scout.com rankings but I did find that quite interesting that’s all.

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  56. Galvis, because the areas where he needs to improve (size, strength, BABIP) are areas where a player CAN improve fairly easily. And his stats now show a potential for that to happen.

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  58. I managed a peak at Laws top 75 and only 2 Phillies:
    48. Jason Donald
    60. Carlos Carrasco

    I still have 25-50 open I lost the other 2 by refreshing the page. Here’s the Donald write up:

    “Donald has no star potential, but he’s major-league ready and could be a solid-average shortstop in 2009 if he had the opportunity.

    He’s a line-drive hitter who uses the whole field well and has good patience, although he can open up a little early and get on top of the ball or swing over it entirely. He has a little loft in his swing but will probably max out around 15-20 homers barring a major increase in strength. His arm is average for short, he gets good reads on ground balls, and is very good on the double play both as a shortstop and on the pivot as a second baseman.

    The Phillies’ system has players with more upside, like Dominic Brown and Michael Taylor, but Donald’s ability to play in the majors right now makes him a valuable property, both to the Phillies if they ask him to fill in for Chase Utley and to other clubs if the Phillies decide to trade him. ”

    He basically said Carrasco has flashes of potential #2 stuff, but his control isn’t good enough and his secondary pitches lack consistency.

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  59. Drew Carpenter should be on this prospect list soon here somewhere. If not already. Ask the Pawtucket Red Sox what he can do. He had a scoreless inning in Philly, too. He was disappointing in Reading, but so was Carrasco, who did very well in August for IronPigs (6 st, 1.72 ERA, 36.2 ip, 37 h, 13 bb, 47 so)…R-Phils had even worse record than the IronPigs. Carpenter is a prospect to not lose track of.

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