Reader Top 30; #20

2009 Reader Top 30

Today we complete the first 20 of our Reader Top 30 for 2009. Sebastian Valle took the #19 spot by a fairly wide margin over Vance Worley, with the rest of the vote getters tightly clustered. Naughton, Saunderson and Cruse received write in votes this time, and I’ll add Naughton to the poll as he’s been in before.

01. Carlos Carrasco, RHP
02. Lou Marson, C
03. Jason Donald, SS
04. Kyle Drabek, RHP
05. Michael Taylor, OF
06. Dominic Brown, OF
07. JA Happ, LHP
08. Travis D’Arnaud, C
09. Joe Savery, LHP
10. Zach Collier, OF
11. Jason Knapp, RHP
12. John Mayberry Jr, OF
13. Edgar Garcia, RHP
14. Antonio Bastardo, LHP
15. Julian Sampson, RHP
16. Drew Naylor, RHP
17. Mike Stutes, RHP
18. Anthony Hewitt, 3B
19. Sebastian Valle, C
20.

84 thoughts on “Reader Top 30; #20”

  1. Carpenter, closer to the bigs them Worley. Needs to have a big year at Lehigh. Has stuff to be a 3,4 in the furure.

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  3. I took Mattair again but the discussions about Carpenter made me think about him. A year ago, I really liked Carpenter but his performance last year really dropped him in my eyes to a fringe major leaguer. Gose, as someone said before, could explode up this list next year. I’ve watched Mattair play (and met him) and he physically has it all. He just needs to perform better this year in his second year out of high school and I think he will.

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  4. Cisco Kid was a friend of mine
    He drank whiskey
    Pancho’d drink the wine

    Cisco is a 36th round pick with a smallish frame but I’m a believer. Look at those K/BB numbers again. Eye-popping. The Kid knows how to pitch, no surprise given the bloodlines. I’m looking forward to see what he does at Clearwater.

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  5. I picked Mattair for I think the third straight time. The year he had didn’t trouble me in terms of development, though I do think he needs to show a little more in 2009.

    Carpenter is an interesting case. We were all pretty high on him years ago, as we were with Happ two years ago, and Carpenter’s 2008 was somewhat akin to Happ’s 2007. I do think he’ll pitch in the majors, though my guess is that his future is middle relief and collecting a lot of different big-league uniforms. Maybe triple-A unis too.

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  6. Backing off of Galvis as I’m starting to think Carpenter should have went sooner. Hopefully last year was an abberation.

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  9. It’s between Mattair and Galvis so I will goes with Greg Legg’s recent comments on the Blue Claws Blog that Galvis became “a much tougher out” last year at Lakewood. On the other hand Legg cited Mattair’s “big two out hits” with the Blue Claws. Moose hit .289 with RISP. Gotta like any clutch hitter especially in a pitchers park in Lakewood. Galvis came back nicely from an 07 shoulder injury in Williamsport. Expect big seasons from both of them in Clearwater in 09.
    http://www.timbremedia.com/clawcasts/WinterTourInterviewwithGregLegg.aspx

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  10. Vance Worley for this spot.

    I think Carpenter was overrated in the first place. In 2007 he had a 6.4 K rate in a pitchers’ league, didn’t have a spectacular home run rate. And he wasn’t especially young for the level.

    Galvis I like. He’s a terrific defender, and his BB/K ratios show good strike zone judgment. I just have Worley rated higher.

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  11. To Branch above, I really can’t see the value of rating a player based on average with RISP. It’s almost useless as a predictor of value at the major league level, let alone in Low A ball. Besides, .289 isn’t all that special and he did it with a .326 slugging percentage. And if he could turn it up in clutch situations, why not do it all the time? Leadoff hits are almost as valuable.

    I really caution using splits in general. You end up chopping statistics into overly small sample sizes, and there is too much noise to make a distinction on anything.

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  12. Why isn’t there more love for Cisco? He’s got the pedigree (Galen Cisco), he’s only a year older than Worley, and he put up amazing numbers in the short stint at Lakewood last year. Also, I’ve heard it reported that his fastball has touched as high as 94, which is well above his college numbers. I can understand Worley and Galvis, as they’re all in the same general potential range, but I’d love to hear an argument for Mattair (really hasn’t shown a lot and hasn’t gotten very good reviews from the scouting sites) and Carpenter (who always had questionable stuff and was never more than a 4th or 5th starter prospect anyway).

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  13. I finally get to vote for Mattair. I have Mattair a bit higher on my personal list, but have been unable to vote for him as I have also been campaigning for Valle for quite some time. The same thing seems to be happening with Carpenter. I have Carpenter around 16-17 but have been unable to vote for him because of Valle and now Mattair.

    Ducky, as for your question about Cisco. I think the reason nobody has a love affair with him is because he was a 36th round draft choice, and it wasn’t because of signability issues. Also, from everything that I have gathered, I think the word on him is that his stuff is poor but his control is exceptional. Combine this with the fact that he was a 21 year old college pitcher pitching in A- and A ball, and the probability that he could dominate for 54.1 IP is rather high. However, I would much rather look at his less than impressive stats that he posted in his sophomore and junior seasons at USC and extrapolate from there. Now, if he continues to impress this year at Clearwater, then I will tank my reservations and get behind him as a legitimate prospect. But for now, I see him as nothing more than a flash in the pan.

    Also, Ducky, please explain to me what pedigree has to do with anything. These are ballplayers, not dogs. Whatever someones talent is… it is. I geuss the sons (or grandsons) of old major leaguers have a higher probability of being born with this talent (I can only assume but who really knows), but at some point in time, does it really matter what a players lineage is? No. They are evaluated on their talent alone, not lineage and pedigree.

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  14. Oh, Pancho!” “Oh, Cisco!”,
    before galloping off, while laughing, into the sunset. Spanish-styled Western theme music

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  18. I voted for Galvis. He has at least one super strong tool, plus his not striking out gives hope the offense will improve, plus he is incredibly young for his level. He’s really the only guy on the list that I see having star potential, not that he has a huge chance of achieving that level, but at least it is realistic.

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  19. I should elaborate on that ‘star’ comment. I did not mean to exclude guys like Schreve and Cosart who haven’t played, but have star potential. Just not enough known about them, including Schreve’s health, to rank them top 20.

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  21. Allentown, I think Mattair has the physical tools to be labeled with star potential. Now, the chances that he reaches that potential are incredibly slim, but If everything breaks right I could see it…

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  22. Neduol Caz:

    The cube is down, so I can’t check, but if I remember correctly, Worley, Cisco, and Stutes all struggled in college, and all pitched well for the Phillies. When you go to the scouting reports, the only report I’ve seen said that Cisco’s stuff was below average coming out but has ticked up since joining the Phils and now looks like a steal in the 36th.

    As for the pedigree question, I guess it was not valid to bring up in overall ceiling. I do think having a father or grandfather who was in the game certainly helps bring a player along faster because they have somebody right there for them teaching the little nuances that most players hafta pick up on their own. This could be guessing and I really have no stats to back it up, but I think it’s just one of those tiny little things that helps a player.

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  24. Neduol Caz,

    “Does it really matter what a players lineage is?”

    Great question. For a long time I wanted to believe bloodlines don’t matter — probably because my father wasn’t athletic — but for some reason in baseball it does matter. I think this has less to do with genes and more to do with having constant professional coaching from a very early age.

    Baseball is more than just a sport, it’s a way of life, a state of mind, a craft. The greatest craftsmen are often family affairs (Castellani Jewelry, Cosmati mosaics, Stradivari violins, etc.). For the same reasons, children of professional baseball players generally have a big advantage.

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  26. True true but there has been players who have reached their ceiling before their time because of family instruction and
    been dissapointments

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  28. I remember the Phillies had Wil Mcenaney’s son Axel a few years ago in their system. I remember talking to Wil who said Alex was a much better prospect then he had been when he started out.. From appearance that appeared to be true but in results it became apparent that young Alex was not up to the task. A year after being picked, Alex was let go after a somewhat lackluster start. So it’s really not pedigree per say that offers some advantage.

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  29. xfactor, from reading you response, it sounds like you believe a player’s upbringing has more of an effect on a player rather than the actual lineage. Almost as if you are choosing nurture over nature in the baseball world. I am not saying I agree, but I am just trying to see where you are coming from.

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  30. I went to school with Tim Murtaugh his father managered the Pirates in the fiftys and some in the sixtys. He had great nuturing but his body type became antiquated and he reached only AA I think. So it seems nature and nurture are hand in hand e.g. the bells and third base body type fits as well as experience. there ya go lol

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  32. The thing scouts look for in prospects are speed of foot and speed of arm, they say everything else is teachable. The Phillies have had many sons and brothers of former ball players over the years an very few have worked out.

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  33. The genes matter too but what differentiates children of players as prospects is the training. Most prospects have good genes as far as physical ability and athleticism go, so yes, I’m more about nurture than nature.

    As others pointed out there are no guarantees. My hunch on Cisco comes from his control, which supports the notion of good coaching early and often. I’m guessing he has a great feel for the game.

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  34. To be a great pitcher, you need more than physical ability. You need to have the mental approach. Jamie Moyer, for example. Steve Carlton became a great pitcher when he found the right guru. Greg Maddux. Brad Lidge is an example of how the mental part can get damaged as easily as the . Cole Hamels versus Gavin Floyd is a good example- Gavin had the better curve ball, but he didn’t have greatness “up there” the way Cole did.

    It’s weird the way we talk about “high ceilings” for pitchers based on radar guns and “stuff”. Even 10MPH can’t make the difference between a cup-of-coffee career and a HOF career. The ceiling for most pitchers is set by their mental make-up.

    Maybe Mike Cisco doesn’t have the physical stuff that makes you a first round draft pick- Golson, Hewitt. But he does have something that helps him miss bats, and genetics could have something to do with that. Worley looks good too, but I’ll go with Cisco again, based on an amazing performance last year. Zero walks 22 hits and 30Ks in 35 innings at Lakewood!

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  35. You know, I am inclined to work Carpenter in here, because he has gotten fairly high up the ladder , has a good variety of pitches including a fork-ball that acts as a change-up and what not. So maybe it is just a factor of getting more experience and learning to pitch as they say. If he can learn to keep them off balance he should have a good chance of success.

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  36. I went with Galvis. I know my statement doesn’t have much excitement to it. I haven’t seen him play but according to reports, he’s the magic man with the glove. I’m pretty comfortable he has a future in the bigs. I hope he can hit enough to become a full time SS. Mattair was actually the guy I had originally slotted here. He’s young and full of potential. If Carpenter had a decent year at AA, I’d have him in my top 10 but he didn’t give me a whole lot of confidence last year. So he falls out of the top 20. I hope that was a little hiccup. I also want to put Berry in here soon. I think he can be disruptive on the base paths like Bourne was but he has to get on base consistently. He showed flashes of that last year. If he has a good year this year, he’ll fly up the list.

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  37. Looking at Carpenter’s record if you eliminate Reading (and we have had that discussion) you see an allstar. There is no reason I see that he will not progress this year if he gives up the milkshakes
    good luck to him

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  40. @skunky: you’re absolutely right- change my vote to Eaton. Wait, he’s not eligible, make that jd durbin.

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  41. Well Eaton had 10 wins the first year of his contract.

    I just meant that Carpenter had 17 wins in A ball. Wins and losses is NOT a legitimate way to evaluate a pitcher at any level. His peripheral numbers have never really revealed him as a serious prospect at any level.

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  42. cheese Skunky you are tough. The ability to win is everything.
    Many,many pitchers have great stuff and never win.
    How are Moyers numbers now? Eaton can easily be explained
    they got a ton of runs for him Numbers are a guide as is record

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  43. There is no such thing as an “ability to win,” nowheels. Pitchers have the ability to pitch poorly or pitch well, either way, the W’s and L’s will fall where they may.

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  44. And there is no such thing as the ability to make the right pitch at the RIGHT time under pressure You have to be kidding

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  45. Wins for pitchers is probably the most over-rated stat in all of professional sports. As Neduol Caz said, pitchers can only control how they pitch. If the offense can support them when they pitch well or bail them out if they pitch poorly is out of their control. Adam Eaton didn’t get 10 wins with the Phillies because he was good at making the right pitch at the right time, he did it because the bats bailed him out.

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  46. “And there is no such thing as the ability to make the right pitch at the RIGHT time under pressure You have to be kidding”

    And if Carpenter has this ability, what the hell happened in Reading?

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  47. What happened to a lot of pitchers in Reading . You might of noticed that the Manager and pitching coach are gone.

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  48. Reading is possibly the biggest jump of all the levels, many guys have succes before AA ball then top out. That being said prospects have good years and bounce back ie JA Happ. If Carpenter has another year like last I would no longer consider him a prospect but we’ve got to give him a chance to show if he is a prospect or not.

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  49. Very true It seems a new atittude is needed in the fitness area for the system as a whole. Balanced with the statement by Mitch Williams that you need to come in with some weight reserves to get thru the long season.
    A bump along the way may help players and prospects to see the game isnt easy.
    I hope for a good year from Happ gaining strength after being hurt three times in -07 u know the ole 18 month thing

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  50. since i have no idea who the top prospects are after app. # 6 i am glad to see the phils absolutely stole hamels for 3 years. unless howard is refusing to sign now is the time for his 7 year 175.mil contract. dont get me wrong i am not convinced who is mucking things up the phils or howard but there must be a compromise. 7 years is perfect. it will take him to 36 at which point he will have been a phil for 10 years with over 500 hr,s and 1300 rbi,s. at this point a 3 year deal will end his career as a phil. i have a feeling ryan is looking at what the highest paid player will be getting in 3 years 30 mil and in 5 years 35 mil. this may be his sticking point which is wrong.

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  51. Not to stray off topic but even if Howard were to average 40 HRs over that 7 year deal, he’d only have 477 HRs at the end, not OVER 500. He’d have to average just over 43 HRs a season to hit 500.

    Back to the topic, it will be very interesting to see if Drew Carpenter shows up in shape or not. If he is in shape and does well, he gets to stay a legit prospect, if not, he’ll be a nice “what if” story.

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  52. Players of Howard’s ilk rarely age well. I’ll be surprised if he remains productive into his mid 30s. Look at Mo Vaughn, Cecil Fielder, Boog Powell.

    To take this on topic, baseball-reference.com now has sortable minor league leaderboards dating back to 1992. When you have a spare moment, go to past years and check some out. See what statistics generally predicted future success, and which didn’t.

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  54. Let’s see how long it takes the faithful to run Howard out of town. They did it to Schilling and Rolen when they were still productive. Phillies fans need someone to hate and blame. It comes with the territory.

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  55. just getting into baseball-reference.com Incredible stuff
    you can get lost for hours
    btw listened to BA Blog on NLEast prospects. You have to agree with Florida hitters being huge. But they had little respect for us. Atlanta is always overrated in the minors
    —- them

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  56. lol airborne, or it could be because Ryan Howard is looking for ARod money and nothing less? No one is running him out of town, but people are being realistic in figuring Howard is gone after his arb years. People would rather get something for him, instead of just letting him walk.

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  57. I dont blame a pitcher or any player for selling a little low in his early years. Hamel now has 20 mil no matter what. The rest is gravy. If you need more than 20 mil to lead a dream life you belong on Wall Street.

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  58. Carpenter is not even a prospect, he has nothing close to major league stuff, and his chances of being a starter for this ballclub are shot. Stop voting for him

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  61. Really, a 23 year-old 2nd round pick who has already gotten a cup of coffee in the majors isn’t even a prospect?

    Interesting opinion…

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  63. Worley.

    Mattair is an interseting case; he seems about ready to begin a breakout season. Great tools; learning/experience needed.

    But since he came to pro ball with limited baseball experience, he would need that bit of extra time to develop.

    Don’t give up on his talented athleticism!

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  65. i have said it in the past and i will say it again…Q is under rated. this guy will play in the bigs. speed lik his is a rare tool. he will slap his way to a decent ob% and his speed will make singles into doubles. i think that he will be a september call up this year. but at this point, most people vote for prospects with much less demonstrated success at much, much lower levels. where is the love?

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  66. Not to get off track but I was simply clarifying that he wouldn’t be over 500 HRs…I wasn’t denigrating him in anyway. But to get back on topic (and avoid James trying to kill me 🙂 )

    …Q feels like a 5th outfielder who gets a decent number of late game ABs and defensive replacement type outings. I.E., Michael Bourn. Now, that’s a great thing to have…Hell, he could honestly be a good 4th OF on alot of teams as having a speedy guy is almost essential on a bench. If that speedy guy has good baserunning instincts, can make okay contact, bunt, and play good defense at all 3 OF spots, thats a great tool to have even if he’s never a starter.

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  68. No NO bad comparison Stargell was built more like Andre Dawson then Howard As I remember he played a much better first base

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  71. Gose is all projection at this point…at least in the field. A LHP that throws 96 is a bit easier to place than a great athlete who is trying to stick as an OF…other than his arm strength we don’t really know much about him in the field.

    He’s got a chance to be real good though.

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  72. If you check Stargell’s record he had almost as many doubles
    as home runs so he wasnt slow.
    story 1 John Oats beat out Boone one year Stargell ran him over and Boone became a starter
    story 2 Stargell once opened the season something like 0/49
    he said someone was going to pay lol

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  73. Thanks Nepp I have a very good feeling about him too.
    stick him with Lopes for a while and watch out

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  74. no wheels i went to school in pittsbubgh and watched clemente,stargell,parker and the incredidly underrated al oliver from 67 to 74 and if stargell wasnt as big as howard i must have having chicken on the hill with bob prince. seriously we will never see mike schmidt again and we will never again see a 1st baseman like howard.

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  76. Willie got bigger later thats for sure.
    I said i went to School with Tim Murtaugh we used to catch batting practice when the Pirates came to town

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  77. I knew Tim Murtaugh when he played for Gastonia in 1970. Joel Skinner, another second gen guy, was also on that team.

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  78. NEPP, here is my thought on Berry (I am sorry, but he is nowhere near good enough to have a single letter nickname). I agree with you when you say having a 4th/5th outfielder with speed, defensive capabilities, and all of that other stuff is important and a great tool to have, as you put it. However, I feel as if this type of player is easy to come by, and so while I think it is important to have that type of player on your bench, I do not feel that it makes that specific player valuable, as he could be easily replaced. Therefore, Berry will be at the very back end of my merry top 30 (I could write for Dr. Scholl’s).

    Also, If Gose were a pitching prospect I would probably be drooling all over him, even though he would still be extremely raw. As an OF though, I just can’t muster up any excitement.

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  79. ****I feel as if this type of player is easy to come by, and so while I think it is important to have that type of player on your bench, I do not feel that it makes that specific player valuable, as he could be easily replaced.****

    I can agree with that sentiment. There are a good number of no-hit speedy glove guys in baseball…it is quite the fungible asset.

    Though Berry is pretty much the only one in our org right now.

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  80. Sorry, just can’t concurr with ned/caz. Q is a player. Had a great college career playing for Tony Gwynn, and has shown growth and poise as a professional. It may not be with the Phillies, but he will play in the Show.

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  81. Coach, I think Nepp and I are both saying that he will most likely make the show, just not as a very valuable player…

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  83. Given relatively equal performance and limited expections I would take the player from your own system for several reasons.
    First given a short honeymoon if the player doesnt perform he can be taken out of the picture easily whereas i player like Bruntlett somehow gets a commitment he doesnt deserve
    Second it is encouraging to the system to see their own in the bigs hense more confidence and better work habits with increased hope
    Third there may be more then meets the eye
    Four your player may of just needed more time and a fa
    is general what he is

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  84. saw amaro on tv and howard is asking for 18 and they are offering 14. the smart and fair thing is to go the 18 thus delaying ryans free agency 1 more year at a below market price. he will not be a free for 4 years 33 years and will lessen his free agent strenght down the line. howard will win arby if he goes especially if compared with texera and other premium players.

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