Hot off the press.
1. Dominic Brown, of
2. Carlos Carrasco, rhp
3. Lou Marson, c
4. Jason Donald, ss
5. Kyle Drabek, rhp
6. Michael Taylor, of
7. Travis D’Arnaud, c
8. Zach Collier, of
9. J.A. Happ, lhp
10. Jason Knapp, rhp
Please do not copy the full text of any scouting reports here.
Phuture Phillies 
wow. a lot of respect to brown or a complete diss to carrasco and marson. I think it’s the second one, but still…..wow.
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I agree with those who think BA is trying to make a little statement with the Brown ranking. Personally, I would rank them Carrasco, Marson, Donald, Brown. I do rank Brown ahead of Taylor based on age, good performance, and tools. Taylor’s age works against him though I admit I have him really close to Brown and a repeat of last year in AA next year would probably vault Taylor to the top past Brown.
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Interesting how different publications view different players. I know BP is higher on D’Arnaud but clearly BA likes Marson better. I like our list better to be honest.
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It’s a nice problem to have in that all of these guys are pretty much interchangeable. Although, it would also be nice to have one absolute can’t miss stud in the system, but you take what you can get. In reality, all of these guys won’t become solid MLB players, but if they do the team will be set for years.
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From the write-up, it seems that scouts from other orgs have very high opinions of him and regret not following his HS situation more closely.
Kudos to the Phils.
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Maybe they think Brown is just a better prospect than Carrasco and it is not meant to be a negative. After all. their projected rotation in 20012 list Carrasco as their no. 2 starting pitcher.
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Brown has a better outfield arm than Gose? I understand it’s more than just arm strength, but Gose was hitting the upper 90’s off the mound. Brown must have a cannon.
I’ve got no major complaints with the list, but at the same time I’ve given up expecting quality work from BA. Talk about an organization that has went to hell.
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I like the balance among the levels. 2 from the 2004 draft class. 3 from the 2006 draft class, 2 from the 2007 draft class, 2 from the 2008 draft class and one international signing. You can always spot a weak system when the Top 5 guys are guys who have barely played.
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Will the subscriber only stuff be posted at some point?
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Still just cannot see Brown as #1. He is not young for low-A and failed to post even an .800 OPS, which for a guy who projects as a corner OF seems the minimum to be taken this seriously. Marson and Carrasco are young for their level; Donald and Taylor have put up truly stud stats; and all of these guys are closer to the show meaning they have a lesser pile of projection that they need to turn into reality, a smaller chance of falling on their dupas, and they become money in the bank quicker. Not sure if they are making a statement by choosing Brown but it is a strange selection. And yes, I’m sure every other team rues not taking him in the 19th round. He was an absolute steal, but that is not enough to make him our top prospect. By the way, BA has had a lot of love for Brown — they picked him as our #6 prospect last winter, after a not great .756 OPS at Williamsburg, following his horrendous 2005 opening campaign in GCL.
Other strange thing — Last winter Golson was our #7 prospect according to BA and he improved his game at Reading this past season. Yet, Mayberry doesn’t even rate the #11sleeper. Is the pharm that much stronger or did we lose this trade?
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Donald over Drabek is interesting, too, considering they have Collier over Happ and Brown over Taylor.
Tough to figure what BA values more, readiness or high ceiling? Are Brown and Collier’s ceilings really that high? And why isn’t Drabek over Donald if a high ceiling trumps readiness? Do they love Donald that much or Drabek not enough?
I agree with Pat Burrell’s statement above: “I like our list better”. Still, I’m pleased to see Brown getting so much love.
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allentown, I think the trade is fairly even, but the system is much better than last year. Remember Savery is not on the list either and he is still a bonafide prospect, so they have gotten deeper. Mayberry “could” fill a purpose with the Phils at some point. Last spring Uncle C was not happy with Victorino so Golson had a shot. I also agree with the people who mentioned the Stanford swing comes into play, since Taylor has had success, maybe it translates to Maybery who has a pedigree.
As for Marson, I think he is undervalued. If his only flaw is power and he is going to hit 8 for the Phils, but does have on base ability to turn the lineup over and defensively is solid to above…welcome to the big leagues.
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A’town: I’m guessing BA loves his tools, quick swing, and athletic movement. So many evaluators fall in love with style and stud-like demeanor. Then they mix in his stellar Hawaii and that’s where they are coming from. Agree they are putting him too high. Even 5 or 6 is a great rating for him and he can become a 1 or 2 at Clearwater or Reading if everything falls right.
As a kid hearing Polish in the hiouse growing up–love the dupa reference. I was used many times a day growing up.
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“It was used”
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Trade Brown now. He’s a corner outfielder with no power.
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Hey don’t know if anyone has a BA subscription but John Manuel gave like the greatest Phillies chat on prospects of all time today. Pretty much profiled everyone in the top 30, it was unbelievable. Some snippets (paraphrased of course) James delete any of it if you think anythings wrong.
– Big believer in Stutes, threw 95 with a wicked slider this summer, sees him as a 4 or 3.
– Loves Troy Hanzawa
– Said Cisco was up 94 this summer with great command.
– Phillies believe if Hewitt hits .250 he will hit 35 bombs.
– Said people see Knapp as a dominant closer and some Drabek as well (might see him this year in Phils bullpen)
-Loves Zach Collier.
-Gave Sampson big props.
-And, obviously, is a huge believer in D. Brown.
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Dude went for two hours.
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He concluded the chat by being really down on Mayberry.
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Pretty similar to my top ten. I had my top four ranked as Carrasco, Donald, Brown and Marson. Drabek and Taylor flipped on my list. I had D’Arnaud at #7, Collier at #8 and Knapp at #10. Only one of their top ten I didn’t have was Happ.
BA’s Prospect Handbook is invaluable. Usually Amazon.com has it for 30% off if you are willing to wait a couple weeks rather than buy directly from BA. I can’t recommend it highly enough, and it will have full bios of the top 30.
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Xfactor —
Drabek is hard to place since he is coming back from injury, still fragile, and not a lot of IP under his belt. Sort of the same situation Hamels found himself in. Drabek has a lot more upside than Donald, but much riskier to come close to potential.
A point he made a couple times in the chat — our first 7 are quite similar in rank and could be equally well sorted in other ways. He says nobody on our pharm in baseball’s top 30 – 35. So a lot of depth, but not the super primo talent. I think we knew that. If we have a super primo, it is Drabek.
My favorite prospect remains Marson. Not a superstar in the making and likely doesn’t make a lot (any) All Star appearances, but a solid bet to be an above average major league starting catcher for many years.
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Brown reportedly threw in the mid 90s as a pitcher in high school, so his raw arm strength is close to Gose. BA probably did not really have much of a chance to see Gose play defense as well. Hence the choice of Brown as best arm.
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Have to believe that Brown moved up more than Carrasco moved down. As someone said above, Carrasco is still their #2 starter in 2012 according to that projection.
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Just to echo Pat Burrell* above: John Manuel’s chat is great stuff. A must read for any BA subscribers.
*By the way, best of luck in Tampa, Pat. Nice signing for the Rays, and confirms that our distrust in Amaro wasn’t misguided. Anyway, I digress…
Those getting their backs up about Brown being #1 will hopefully be assuaged by John Manuel continually assuring us, throughout his chat, that the Top 7 are tightly bunched. We agreed on as much in our Top 30 as well, so it’s a question of degrees.
A couple of quick points: they’re certainly bullish on Brown, which is a good thing. And good reports on Cisco, Stutes, and Worley as well. The worrying signs: this is the second set of poor reports we’ve had on both Savery and Garcia, and it’s causing me to rethink my evaluation on both of them. Both need to come out of the gate strong in Reading to remain upper echelon prospects in my mind.
A final point: to those worried that we “lost” the Golson/Mayberry deal, Manuel admits that he likes Golson far more than most and still thinks the deal is a wash. A site like BA — as tools-oriented as they are — is likely to have Golson rated higher, so as someone who sees Mayberry as much more of a sure thing than Golson, I still think the deal is a (slight) win for the Phils.
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Considering BA has the Phils system ranked 12th this year, I imagine it’s not a bad thing for the top guys to be bunched.
This year is a make or break year for Savery in my opinion, so we shall see what happens.
RE: Brown’s arm strength, in the write up on him they have his arm strength rated a 70 on the 20/80 scale. So I don’t think it represents Gose negatively.
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“andyb Says:
January 6, 2009 at 5:20 pm
Brown reportedly threw in the mid 90s as a pitcher in high school, so his raw arm strength is close to Gose. ”
Brown was as raw a pitcher in high school as he was a hitter- but he was more 87-88 mph (as i’ve read)- he projected higher, but was not in the mid 90’s in highschool.
Perhaps the most important note to take away from his chat about Gose, was that he did not hit the mid-90’s this past year (was too hurt to spend enough time on the mound) – for those who believe his talents are mis-placed as a position player.
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I think the question we have to ask is this. How did this happen?? A year and a half ago our farm system stunk. And when I say stunk I mean sucked. I kinda think the Phillies got really lucky with some guys and some guys have developed really nicely, which is a testament to the coaches and scouts they have in place. Very nice.
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i agree this year is very important for savery, but i don’t think make or break and i don’t think that he will start in reading.
regarding make or break, i guess it just matters what you are looking for out of him. if you still think that he will be a stud starting pitcher, then it might be a make or break year. but if you think that he will be a productive mlb pitcher that will be a reliever or 5th starter, then i don’t see it as a make or break year.
and if they truly care about helping him as a prospect, they will start him in clearwater. give him a half year there at least. let him dominate. and them move him up. i know that he is 23, but as a pitcher, he really is under developed. he only started focusing on pitching full time after being drafted. so you can’t look at him as a college guy. more like a tweener between high school and college as far as pitching development goes.
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if nothing else, this should be another very fun year for the system. fun to see if brown and taylor can move up and still produce. fun to see drabek and the good draft class of 2008. fun to see if our “close to the majors” prospects – CC, Sweet Lou, Donald, Happ – take that step.
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baxter Says:
Trade Brown now. He’s a corner outfielder with no power.
can we let the guy get his feet on the ground again most guys dont get there power til 24 or 25 . Not everyone is
Carberra
BTW we superstars already solid players will make them superer lol
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“Pat Burrell Says:
January 7, 2009 at 9:21 am
I think the question we have to ask is this. How did this happen?? A year and a half ago our farm system stunk.”
Because they kepth their picks, added picks, and paid their picks.
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The nice thing is that BA never has Phillies ranked high. So it makes me happy that we have players beyond 30, but still in the top 100. In essence, we have 7 of them since BA feels the first 7 are almost interchangeable.
Some notable BA rankings:
2008
54. Carrasco – was actually 41. in 2007
76. Cardenas – watch how he goes higher in the A’s system even though he did not have the greatest of years.
90. Savery – will probably never be back on the list, but end up in the majors someday.
2007 – only Carrasco made the list
Victorino was not listed, yet was MVP of the International league in 2006.
2006
68. Hamels -World Series MVP one of the top 5 lefties in MLB
73. Gio Gonzalez – Moved up each year since leaving including 26 with the A’s (anyone who Billy Beane wants automatically moves higher). Saw him play in Reading and thought his stuff was awesome, but mental makeup was 5 times worse than Brett Myers.
2005
27 – Howard – so 26 players better than the 05 ROY and 06 MVP
35 – Floyd – I was not a fan of the trade giving him away. I was at the masterpiece he threw against the Cardinals.
71 – Hamels – see above
2004
17 Hamels & 23 Floyd
Other notables
Utley was 83rd in 2003 – top second baseman in MLB now
Rollins was 31 (01) & 95 (00) – now a top 5 ss
Myers was 33 (02) & 47 (01) –
Burrell was 2 (00) & 19 (99)
So Gavin Floyd and Pat Burrell were the 2 prospects that BA really loved and the only ones to make the top 10, Hamels was the only other to even make a top 20 and then dropped significantly after that. Just shows how difficult it is to track properly and how reputation comes in too play with some teams.
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Why trade brown. Because he has little power. It makes no sense to me he could be a 300 hitter with a lot of sb and good defense what is wrong with that. You have infielders who have power to compenstate for his lack of power.
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r.moffo- you could probably make your point a little more clearly with an expanded use of punctuation- i can’t tell if you’re for or against brown.
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****Why trade brown. Because he has little power. It makes no sense to me he could be a 300 hitter with a lot of sb and good defense what is wrong with that. You have infielders who have power to compenstate for his lack of power.****
Kinda like a Carl Crawford?
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Sorry fish. My point is Brown doesn’t have to be a power hitter to be a everyday player. If he is a legit 300 hitter with good d. and a strong arm. With speed to swipe bases, what is wrong with that?
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Nothing at all- however, while he has speed, by the time he gets to (if) the big leagues I suspect he’ll be in the base running classe of Chase Utley. But that aside, as a prospect he projects to have more then adequate extrabase pop when he is mature.
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