Reader Top 30; #13 + Happy Holidays

2009 Reader Top 30

Newly acquired John Mayberry Jr takes him spot #12 in the Reader Top 30, while Edgar Garcia and Antonio Bastardo engaged in a tight race for 2nd place. The Phillies BP Top 11 list should be out today or tomorrow, when it is I’ll have some thoughts, but please don’t post the full text here. Kevin Goldstein, the writer of the list, has agreed to do a Q/A, and I’ll start a separate post on that to solicit questions for him. So lets just keep this to the discussion of #13. I’ll try and get that post of the Top 11 up when BP runs it, but that will be my last transmission until after Christmas. So, from me to you, Happy Holidays and thanks for continuing to come back. Now onto #13…

Voting recap for #12

Mayberry – 79
Garcia – 57
Bastardo – 52
Sampson – 33
Naylor – 19
Galvis – 11
Stutes – 8
Valle – 2
De Fratus – 1
Mattair – 1
Berry – 1
Slate – 1

So far we have

01. Carlos Carrasco, RHP
02. Lou Marson, C
03. Jason Donald, SS
04. Kyle Drabek, RHP
05. Michael Taylor, OF
06. Dominic Brown, OF
07. JA Happ, LHP
08. Travis D’Arnaud, C
09. Joe Savery, LHP
10. Zach Collier, OF
11. Jason Knapp, RHP
12. John Mayberry Jr, OF
13.

And now #13

59 thoughts on “Reader Top 30; #13 + Happy Holidays”

  2. I wrote in: from the Dominican: Alvaro Bacil. It says it recorded, don’t see it in the vote totals, but here it is.
    Some may be unfamiliar, so here’s what can be known. Signed this year at 16 for one of Phillies highest international bonuses, $100,000. So many of stats were compiled as 16 y.o. Let’s compare to player I put a little higher and was voted so ; Jason Knapp. Bacil only got 20 IP compared to Knapp’s 31, so let’s look at some averages.

    bb/9—Knapp 3.48, Bacil 2.25
    k/9—-In Knapp’s favor 11.09 to 9.45
    opp. ba overall –Knapp .228, Bacil .136
    opp. ba. vs lhh –Knapp .167, Bacil .182
    opp. ba. vs rhh–Knapp .250, Bacil .127
    wh/ip—Knapp–1.23, Bacil–0.70

    It is believed the GCL is a higher level of competition than the DSL, but by how much? Maybe only enough to be a couple of spots lower in this poll. Remember it’s all about the upside, which is not always easily determined.

    Like

  4. Garcia for the fifth time in a row for me! Marfis, I admit, I have never heard of Bacil. But, 20 IP for a 16 year old international signing playing in the DSL might be the most unreliable set of statistics I have ever seen. Let’s hope you unearthed a great prospect before anyone else here.

    Like

  5. Yeah , hope so . Maybe some of these guys can work their way on towards the back of the list rather than some of the well-worn guys might feel should be obligatory inclusions.

    Like

  7. Went with Edgar, big year for him though if he can repeat what he did in Clearwater in AA this year everyone will be pretty pumped up. See his ceiling as a good #4 starter and his floor as an eighth inning guy.

    Like

  8. I feel this slot goes to a pitcher. I tried to pick between Naylor, Bastardo and Garcia. I voted for Naylor but I had to take a long look at Garcia. Garcia’s 2 years younger and has pitched at a higher level than Naylor. Darn, I think I voted for the wrong guy.

    Like

  10. I tried to vote other for Mike Cisco but i musta screwed up
    Please count my vote the man needs a little appreciation

    Like

  15. I’m glad Valle is finally on the poll somewhere other than “Other.” Once Garcia is off the board (could this be the spot?) Valle will be my next spot.

    Like

  16. Bacil’s age–ok, I was in error on that. I guess he signed at 17 then. Must of mixed him up with a couple other guys who signed at same time. Still one of the youngest on Phillies DSL team, though. Maybe he can work in later.

    Like

  19. BP sneak preview….

    they briefly had their top 11 up as the “next article” on the Mets prospects page. They have since taken down the loophole…. from memory, here is what they had as the top 11….

    Five Stars
    1. Carrasco
    Four Stars
    2. Taylor
    3. Drabek
    Three Stars
    4. D’Arnaud
    5. Marson
    6. Donald
    7. D. Brown
    8. Happ
    9. Collier
    10. Knapp
    11. Hewitt

    Like

  22. I am very surprised that they gave Carrasco a 5 star rating. I believe a couple months ago there was a post saying that Goldstein didn’t give Carrasco any love and called his LHV stats a fluke. If you look at some of their other lists, guys like Fernando Martinez didn’t get 5 stars and I believe Klaw has been calling him a top 10 guy. Very surprising for me.

    Like

  24. Mattair, Naylor and Savery “just missed,” and Sampson is Goldstein’s “sleeper.”

    The most interesting aspect might be that he doesn’t seem very confident in the order in which he put these guys; the piece left me with the thought that he probably got the right 11 guys, but it was almost like he picked the order out of a hat. (I think the voting and discussion here shows that this is valid.) Specifically, he noted that he wasn’t sure how “real” Taylor’s breakout was, and had trouble making a call on the difference between the performances and the scouting evaluations of Marson and Donald.

    I was a bit surprised both of them weren’t ranked higher, and I’m still annoyed–not specifically at Goldstein, but in general–at this whole notion that Donald’s power isn’t sufficient for third base. If Bill Mueller hit enough to play third (and he did), then I think Donald will too.

    That said, I was really looking forward to Goldstein’s take on our system, and he didn’t disappoint.

    Like

  25. I can’t help believe that the pitching vote canceled itself out (Garcia and Bastardo), and that’s why Mayberry is #12. That is, if either pitcher went to head-to-head against Mayberry in a vote, the pitcher would win. Garcia for 13….

    Like

  27. I have to vote for bastardo in this one. Really, this is one of the easiest decisions I’ve had to make so far. Both Garcia and Bastardo faced the same competition in AA, and yet bastardo’s numbers are without a doubt better. At this point he is the more refined product with solid K/9 and control. There is not one stat that Garcia has an edge in besides age.

    Like

  28. Nice list, Carrasco has been gettin props lately from KLaw and now BP, maybe from his AAA and VWL performances? Savery has really fallen from grace he was a 4 star number 2 guy last year now he’s on the just missed list. I guess that’s a question of mine for KG, What’s up with Joe Savery? and What are his thoughts on Travis Mattair who also just missed even after a terrible season albeit as an 18 yr old at pitchers heaven Lakewood.

    Like

  32. Dajafi: Mueller is my comp for Donald’s offense also. Not HOF 3B production, but better than a David Bell, especially in avg and obp. A solid guy to mix in with 3 MVPs in the IF and no Scott Rolen type on the horizon. That’s a no-brainer to me.

    Like

  34. Joe,

    I agree Bastardo looks better on paper but Garcia has a big edge in one important stat besides age: number of frayed labrums, Garica 0, Bastardo 1. Until I read a credible source which says it isn’t an issue and doesn’t affect his upside, well, I have no choice but to discount Bastardo’s prospect status. It may be harsh but that’s life. Still, I am impressed with Bastardo’s performance at Reading and I have him at #15, ahead of Mayberry Jr. but behind Garcia and Cisco. If not for his labrum I would have voted for him at #10 ahead of Knapp and Collier.

    I could be 100% wrong to be so concerned with Bastardo’s labrum. I’m operating on hearsay and I’m not a doctor so any informed opinions to the contrary are most welcome.

    Like

  35. a slap liasion (torn laberum) is common in professional athletes with a very high rebound rate. Goalies commonly have torn laberums in their hips, so i don’t think it will affect his performance in the future.
    Garcia got hammered in AA. I think performance should be the most important rating statistic.

    Like

  36. I have no info on Bastardo’s condition in particular (is it a posterior tear, a Bankart lesion, or a SLAP tear?) but here’s an article which talks about a very low rebound rate in general.

    http://www.slate.com/id/2100895/

    A quote form the article:

    “…if pitchers with torn labrums were horses, they’d be destroyed. Of the 36 major-league hurlers diagnosed with labrum tears in the last five years, only midlevel reliever Rocky Biddle has returned to his previous level. Think about that when your favorite pitcher comes down with labrum trouble: He has a 3 percent chance of becoming Rocky Biddle. More likely, he’ll turn into Mike Harkey, Robert Person, or Jim Parque, pitchers who lost stamina and velocity—and a major-league career—when their labrums began to fray.”

    Like

  37. Xfactor, that article is from 2004. You might want to find something more recent to base an opinion on. Surgical procedures have advanced greatly…

    Like

  38. The plot thickens:

    http://www.sportsline.com/mcc/messages/chrono/10909562

    “Will Carroll article on Labrum Tears:

    “A couple of years back, I wrote an article for Slate magazine in which I said that the labrum tear was the worst injury a pitcher could face. I never called it a “death sentence” (though I would have thought I had before re-reading it), and I wouldn’t have argued with that characterization. It’s probably my most-quoted work, and I’m still proud of it.

    But it’s also obsolete. The article from May of 2004 discussed the situation as it existed then, not as it exists now. While a torn labrum isn’t good now, medical science has made huge leaps in fixing this issue. Again, it’s not good to have a torn or even a frayed labrum, but to use a 2004 article to explain it just doesn’t do the situation justice. Things have changed too significantly.

    Which means that I should update the article, I know.”

    Like

  40. I can ceretainly understand the caution on Bastardo, even though I voted for him. I simply decided to ignore that on blind faith. Hopefully the degree of fraying or tear is small and myabe it is not as significant in guts who do not rely on blazing fastballs.

    Like

  41. Bottom line: Bastardo’s condition is the reason you load up on prospects and not trust that a few potential relievers each year is enough.

    Like

  42. The other frayed labrum to worry about is Savery. He really hasn’t impressed since having the surgery. The Phillies must think it was fixable/fixed since they drafted him knowing he had the surgery.

    Like

  44. Tough choice between Valle and Galvis here. But after this August when Valle caught both ends of the abbreviated GCL championship doubleheader and delivered key hits to lead the GCL Phils to the sweep and Bill Conlin’s description of him as a leader after scouting a GCL workout I got to go with Valle here:
    http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/22705739.html
    “The youngest player on the field is also the most impressive. Valle takes charge of the game from Matos’ first four-seamer, chirping encouragement to his pitcher, directing traffic on pop fouls. “He’s got a nice feel for the game,” says longtime organizational pitching coach Carlos Arroyo. Valle also weighs about a buck-65. But that’s OK, Darren Daulton came to his first camp down here packing 155 pounds on his bony frame.”

    Like

  45. Bastardo over Garcia based on head-to-head performance.

    and Bastardo is a lefty, and has a much more interesting name.

    Like

  47. Naylor again..

    Back to Catchers and Aussies. Is there No Love for Brad Harman at all ??

    Other than Marson and D’Arnaud.. Surely Naughton must rank in top 4 Catcher prospects?

    Like

  49. See that Harman is trying to change his plate approach in the Claxton. He is leading all hitter in walks after the first 10 games and has an On Base Percent of .540. Last year at Reading he had an OBP of .280. Any middle infielder who can field and hit 17 homers as Brad did last year still has a chance but he must get on base a little more and cut his strike outs.

    Like

  50. Bastardo isn’t currently a reliever any more than Garcia is currently a reliever nor is he seriously injured since he is currently pitching…

    Like

  52. Unless I’m very much mistaken, Bastardo is currently pitching effectively which to me shows that his pitching arm is just fine. I doubt the Phillies would risk his future with the big team unless they were convinced he was healthy.

    Like

  55. PHL—
    I think Naughton is the #4 catcher behind Marson, D’Arnaud, Valle, although I admit to finding Kennelly more interesting than Naughton, for bat potential.

    Like

  59. Bellman, as a Druid practioner of the dark arts, I am offended. 🙂

    Happy Holidays all. Give a friend or family member an extra hug or nice word today. Especially the kids, and more especially the teenagers, as exasperating as they might be. Don’t forget they are in hormone hell.

    Like

Comments are closed.