Baseball Prospectus Phillies Top 11

Top Prospect Lists

The list is up.

Five-Star Prospects
1. Carlos Carrasco, RHP
Four-Star Prospects
2. Michael Taylor, RF
3. Kyle Drabek, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
4. Travis D’Arnaud, C
5. Lou Marson, C
6. Jason Donald, SS
7. Dominic Brown, OF
8. J.A. Happ, RHP
9. Zach Collier, RF
10. Jason Knapp, RHP
11. Anthony Hewitt, 3B

Sleeper: Julian Sampson, RHP

Just Missed: Travis Mattair, 3B; Drew Naylor, RHP; Joe Savery, LHP

Thats the info available to non-subscribers. If you’re a subscriber and have access to the other info, please don’t post it here. Kevin is going to be kind enough to answer questions on his rankings. If you have questions, post them in the comments here and I’ll try to work them in.

131 thoughts on “Baseball Prospectus Phillies Top 11”

  4. Here’s a question I’d have for him:

    Between Marson and Donald, which one is more likely to produce better at the MLB level?

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  6. I just can’t get excited about Hewitt until I see a full season under his belt. He didn’t even make my top 20, but seeing him on a BA list is encouraging. Biggest surprise is seeing d’Arnaud rated higher than Marson. I’m a fan of both but a lot has to go right for d’Arnaud to match Marson’s achievements in the minors. I have Marson #1, ahead of Carrasco because Marson is the model of consistency whereas Carrasco is not. At a certain point consistency means more than potential. I’m still waiting for Von Hayes to win the MVP.

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  7. Two questions:

    1) What does he expect from “just-missed” guy Travis Mattair going forward: what does he need to work on, and what would constitute a good 2009 for him? (bonus sub-question: does he start at Lakewood or Clearwater?)

    2) Since it seems like the Phillies have been drafting Hewitt-like guys–great tools, no baseball skills–for at least 20 years (Jeff Jackson, Reggie Taylor, Greg Golson), can we have one name of a guy who was similar when drafted but went on to have a productive big-league career?

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  8. I’m very interested by the pick of D’Arnaud ahead of Marson. I would want to know what are the advantages of each player and why D’Arnaud ultimately projects higher than Marson?

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  9. dajafi….

    the number one guy who is looked at as a “drafted as a raw athlete and became a good baseabll player” kinda guy is Tori Hunter

    There have been many more busts than success stories in that area though.

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  10. ive been voting Sampson the past two slots, and im happy to see he is listed as a sleeper. I think he is going to be a good pitcher.

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  11. Anthony Hewitt’s potential makes him the ultimate “last guy on a prospect list”.

    The real news isn’t Hewitt’s inclusion on this list, but the fact that he got 3 stars.

    Do guys like Hewitt spend any time at spring training? I’d like for him to work with Charlie Manuel. Even if its just a short session, Charlie could probably tell Hewitt what he needs to work on for the next year.

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  12. With the exception of the obvious, Carrasco, he has ignored the Caribbean guys.
    The next list should be the Phils “Top 10 Prospects from the Caribbean”. My list would be Carrasco, Bastardo, E. Garcia, Valle, Galvis, H. Garcia, Castro, Flande, Simon, De los Santos.
    Or the Phils “Top 5 Prospects from Down Under”. My list would be Naylor, Harman, Naughton, Tim Kennelly, Daniel Schmidt. Kennelly is raking (15 for 42, 3 HRs) in the national tournament and Schmidt just pitched four innings of one hit ground ball relief to get a win where his pitching coach is Graeme Lloyd.

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  13. Baxter,

    As a #1 pick, I expect Hewitt will get some ST time with the big club. However, I doubt he will be there more than a week or two or will get much attention from Manual other than maybe watching him take BP.

    Mostly, its just a way to throw a bone to highly drafted prospects.

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  14. I would like to know what he thinks of Edgar Garcia, since I’ve been voting for him so much in our top 30 recently. I’m surprised he isn’t even on the ‘just missed’ list.

    As an aside, and not a question, I’d have to think our system hasn’t made the strides many of us think it has since we have three guys in the top 11 that are recent draft picks.

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  15. If you’re a BP subscriber, it’s worth listening to KG’s podcast on the Phils system. If follows the lines of the article pretty closely, but I was intrigued when KG referred to the Phils as an “interesting, interesting system.”

    My question for KG is, “What makes Carrasco a 5-star player if his ceiling is slightly better than a #3 starter?”

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  16. What do the stars mean. Is a three star player projected as an average major league player etc. I don’t think the list from 1-10 is bad I just want to try and figure out what the stars mean

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  17. I second the Mattair question. Also, I would like to know what KG thinks about the progess Drew Naylor has made and what he sees as Drew’s ceiling/floor projections. Is it a 3 like some think or a backend/reliever type?

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  18. Glen: I had the same question. Drabek may have more ceiling than Carrasco. It’s pretty clear Carrasico will be better than bottom of rotation, but his inconsistency puts any #1/#2 pretensions in doubt. He’s young so that could change, but I can’y see him rated 5-star at this point–or any of our prspects for that matter. Plenty of good 3 and 4 star guys though.

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  19. Glen: I had the same question. Drabek may have more ceiling than Carrasco. It’s pretty clear Carrasco will be better than bottom of rotation, but his inconsistency puts any #1/#2 pretensions in doubt. He’s young, so that could change, but I can’t see him rated 5-star at this point–or any of our prspects for that matter. Plenty of good 3 and 4 star guys though.

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  21. I think he mentioned in his chat that basically

    5 star = Top 50 prospect in all of baseball
    4 star = in consideration for Top 100
    3 star = good prospect, in the Top 150-200

    When you consider you have 30 teams x 10 prospects, you’re at 300 guys. When hes completely done all of his rankings I’ll tally up the 5 star, 4 star, 3 star and 2 star guys.

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  22. Kyle Slate is my sleeper. i think the kid is gonna have a lights out year and jump into the top 20 by next season.

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  23. I still think that guys like Marson and Donald are getting undervalued. Under his system, I would have both of them at 4 stars. Donald hasn’t stopped hitting in 2 years Low A, High A, AA, Olympics and AFL. All while credibly playing SS.

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  24. Even though Carrasco may end up a #3 he get’s five stars because he’s so close to actually being it…I assume that’s his line of thinking, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

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  25. Nice to see CC continuing to stay afloat as a top prospect. I feel like we’ve talking about him in the system for a long time yet he is slowly moving up the BA and BP ranks.

    A legit #3 pitcher is what the parent team needs right now. And I’m guessing the projection as a #3 (which people and the organization consistently label him) is a #3 on a contending team. That’s a big distinction.

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  27. i don’t think they would give CC a 5 star if his ceiling is a #3. they’re pretty strict about that kinda stuff.

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  28. I’m amazed that Donald only gets 3 stars, I’m pretty sure he’ll be on the majority of the top 100 prospects lists.

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  31. It seems they’re seeing Taylor’s breakout as being more “for real” than Marson’s last year. That, and Michael obviously has the superior tools.

    As far as questions go…

    1.) Is Taylor’s breakout for real — that is to say, are the scouting reports that much better than they had been? Is he just a college guy tearing up the low minors, or does he really have a shot to be a 30 HR, decent fielding right fielder?

    2.) Any thoughts on the college arms from this draft class? Worley, Cisco and Stutes all advanced to Lakewood as starters, and Schwimer and Rosenberg look like fast movers as bullpen pieces. Do any of them intrigue the BP folks?

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  32. What about Marson is concerning enough that he is below Taylor, Savery, and D’Arnaud?

    Also, Donald at #6?

    Why does Hewitt come in at 11 when he has accomplished NOTHING, except to prove he can’t hit? Especially over sampson, mattair, et al…

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  33. very interesting how he spread the high-ceiling vs. good-performance-at-upper-levels prospects. particularly intrigued by having Brown at 7 and Taylor at 2 with Donald and marson in between. I just inherently lump those two pairs together it’s hard to get my head around separating them in such a way.

    And as an aside, I asked KG in his post-draft chat this summer who would win in a decathalon between Anthony Hewitt and Tim Beckham (he said Hewitt by a mile). Love that it seems to have stuck in his mind (or maybe I am taking too much credit!).

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  34. Echoing Friar’s 2nd question, I’d also like to see what he think of what seems to be a pretty good crop of college arms…It doesn’t really seem like there’s any consensus on our system besides CC.

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  35. I’d like to ask KG if he knows the Phillies use AA as a training ground for pitchers’ location and not just to win games. The example i’d like to ask is if he knows Carlos Carrasco throws only fastballs for a few innings then uses only curves and changeups for another few innings.

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  36. I think the one bright thing about it is, everyone on the list is at least a 3 star player.

    Here’s a list of the others teams and how many two stars each team has on theirs lists

    Mets 4
    Brewers 2
    Dodgers 3
    Astros 5
    Marlins 0
    Rockies 1
    Reds 2
    Cubs 3
    Braves 1

    Definitely shows we have solid depth among the top prospects.

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  37. I find it really hard to believe that KG sees both Donald and Marson as sub-100 prospects. Both have hit at an advanced level and play premium defensive positions. Maybe neither has the highest ceiling, but really tough to believe that there are over 100 more valuable prospects in the game.

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  38. Maybe they are looking at Marson’s BABIP and flat swing and assuming he’s in for a major adjustment against more advanced pitching? I’m not saying I agree with the argument but I believe that’s the one usually made against him.

    Joe Savery not even on the list? Talk about a bad year.

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  39. Jason Donald and Lou Marson aren’t more talented than the other players, they’re just closer to the majors. I don’t think this takes distance to the majors into account. D’Arnaud has much better numbers for his first two years than Marson had through his first four years of his career.

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  40. some thoughts:
    1. i like seeing taylor get some props. i am a big fan.
    2. i am a bit surprised by marson’s ranking. i guess his concern is his high babip, but his walk rate is undeniable. and that productivity from a young catcher is rare.
    3. i think rating d’arnaud ahead of marson is more of a compliment of d’arnaud than a knock on marson
    4. besides marson, i have no problem with any rankings
    5. i think that it is funny that baxter and i got ridiculed as “short sided” when we demoted the prospect status of savery, but now KLaw and KG have supported our thoughts.
    6. hewitt has unique upside and flashed some real talent last year. if you focus on the negative, you miss the big picture. he played a new position extremely well. showed some real power. and also showed he is raw and needs to improve his swing and pitch recognition. but he is young and came from the northeast.
    7. good to see CC listed as a 5 star talent. many teams didn’t have one of those. the mets didn’t have one and had far fewer 3 star prospects.

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  41. The marlins have some really nice players but why is Jose Ceda listed when he seemed to be cubs property

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  43. @ PP Fan: credit where it’s due for lining up with Law and Goldstein on Savery, but I do want to say that I don’t think any of the regular posters “ridiculed” you guys for your opinion. In fact, I think we were in agreement that he took a small step backwards this year, but where we primarily disagreed on is what he could be going forward. I think that there’s at least an okay chance that Savery comes out fully healthy this year, turns a few heads in Reading, and cements his profile as a #3-type starter. At worst, I think he looks like an innings-eating #5 starter.

    Final point: you needn’t look farther than Michael Taylor to see how fluid these lists are. It only takes one good season to shoot you up prospect charts, so I’m certainly not ready to write Savery off yet.

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  44. my bet is that savery starts the year in clearwater. only moves up if he lights it up. which he should given that he will be 23 and repeating the level.

    my biggest concern with savery all along is that he didn’t seem to show any one great pitch. his fastball velo and movement was average. and his other pitches seemed average at best. i am not convinced that he was fully recovered from injury, which is extremely concerning.

    just like you, i hope that he has a good 2009. but i fear that that is all we have…hope. he really hasn’t shown any reason post his surgery (i.e. ignoring his freshman season) to suggest we have more than hope. but i am a fan so i hope. my point all along is just that you have to put him in perspective. some people were just way over reaching on him. he is not a future ace. but i still think that he will make the major leagues.

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  45. It’s an inconsistent ranking IMHO…if you rank Carrasco ahead of Drabek, you have to rank Marson ahead of D’Arnaud. Maybe Drabek and D’Arnaud have slightly higher ceilings than the other two, but it’s close, and both Marson and Carassco are closer to the show. Marson has gotten better with every level advancement…there’s nothing to say D’Arnaud will do the same.

    I think Marson is clearly at least a 4-star prospect. Sometimes I think a particular stat is so good analysts just ignore it, which may be the case with Marson’s OBP.

    Personally, Donald is at least 4-star, too.

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  46. PP Fan says of Anthony Hewitt: “.he played a new position extremely well. showed some real power”

    If one HR in 117 AB’s (not to mention 55 K’s) and a .848 fielding percentage is your idea of playing a new position extremely well and showing real power, you should nominate Hewitt for the HOF right now.

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  48. Where would Cardenas & Outman rank if they were still in the system?

    In your opinion, which of the low level 3-star prospects on the list (D’Arnaud, Brown, Collier, Knapp, Hewitt) has the best chance to jump up the list for next year?

    Which Phillies propects do you feel are the most over and under rated by other outlets?

    Thanks to KG for taking time to answer some questions, looking forward to reading it.

    Happy Holidays to all.

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  49. I didn’t see Mayberry on the list, does this mean Kevin believes Mayberry has little to no chance of making it?

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  50. I don’t see the love for Mattair. I know he is young but Lakewood was disappointing. I think Overbeck is a better prospect.

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  51. Wow, someone actually made a Daniel Schmidt reference- the guys signed 2 years ago and has yet to throw a professional pitch.

    I’d like to know what Edgar Garcia’s stuff is like now. I feel like alot of people here are excited about him because of his age based performance, and the stuff he was supposed to have- but, unless someone who’s seen him first hand can account for it- his stuff doesn’t seem to be anything overwhelming anymore. Either that, or the fastball velocity has been overhyped from his earlier days.

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  52. I think the ratings are pretty much right on. I was surprised to see D’Arnaud ahead of Marson. I think it indicates that the person ranking the prospects has done a good job of looking at the phillies prospects. Sleepers and just missed are dead on as well.

    they have to put Hewitt on the list. All recent first rounders are for every team. Sampson as sleeper is exactly where I see him. Mattair as just missed is great for a guy who went straight to Low A.

    Drabek will be knocking on the door of the big club after next year if he doesn’t have any injuries.

    I’d really like to see Carrasco get the 5th starters spot this year. I think Dubee and Moyer will help Carlos more than any confidense boost he could get by lighting up AAA.

    As for a question, Ask him what he thinks of the changes to the phillies scouting department. This is the first major change we’ve had in over a decade and I wonder if he thinks Rube did well in his choices. I was a big fan of Arbuckle but I like the guy they brought in as well. I’d like to hear what a pro thinks.

    Thanks again to James for running this awesome site and for starting to post on the threads again. Your opinions are valued by all your readers whether we agree or disagree.

    Happy holidays everybody.

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  55. ok old grandad – maybe i got ahead of myself. but 40% of his hits were xbh. i didn’t realize he had 7 errors. let’s see what he does this year after a full off season.

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  56. If what I have read is true to say overbeck is a better propect than Mattair, this team is in trouble at third, because overbeck can’t field has no range and is older and struggled. Hewitt is a big question mark .So who is the third basemen of the future, they don’t think it doanld who I love .but most think he is a ulitily player.

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  57. Hewitt – everyone knew he’d struggle initially but he’s an amazing athlete. If he figures it out, he could be special.
    Taylor – he didn’t just have a good year, he had a great year and he’s built like a horse who can do it again and again – we’ll see
    Carrasco – I’m surprised that he’s a 5 star guy but that means that people think he’s starting to figure some things out. His winter league performance has been excellent after his strong AAA showing – consistency is coming.
    Mattair – huge, strong kid from Washington state needs time but has great upside
    Sampson – also from Washington and also neesds time but could be really good
    Drabek – just needs to stay healthy and pitch and he could find himself in Reading before next season is over. He has ace written all over him but he needs to stay healthy and pitch.

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  58. I saw 90 – 94 FB from Garcia and a decent change at Reading. He got banged around when he started games throwing all FB. Many hitters were strike one, strike two, nibble, nibble, nibble, nibble, nibble, nibble, nibble, nibble with many foul balls and too often ending in a walk. Control could be better, but Reading did not stress pitchers pitching intelligently and setting up hitters. As a consequence, the starters got into way too long innings and wore down. The whole approach to pitching was whacky.

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  59. My question — has he heard what sort of budget the Phillies are going to go with for draft and international this year. I fear it will be really, really cheap.

    Second question — what was the deal with Correa and is he coming back this season

    Third question — With Kevin Hooker gone, what is the state of our Australia scouting. I have not read of a replacement scout

    4th question — what is it with the Reading pitching philosophy and guys throwing all FB for first two innings. Will this change with Forbes gone?

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  60. First remark – I understand both Cardenas and Outman were great prospects, but I feel we really need to move on. The big team won a world series because of the trade, which is one function of the farm teams. Where they would place in our system doesn’t really matter anymore.

    Second – Mattair has a great arm, and to me, seemed to improve toward the end of the season. While he had quite a few errors at third, he also made some fantastic plays that showed promise. He’s very young, and I have high hopes for this guy. I expect he’ll repeat Lakewood.

    And john from philly, I agree – I think a lot of these writers switch things up for shock value. I, as a non-subscriber, can see the rankings, but I can’t see why he picked d’Arnaud over Marson until I pay up.

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  62. My question for Mr. Goldstein:

    Unlike Lou Marson, Jason Donald really doesn’t have any one major flaw that stands out (with Marson, we always hear about his swing that hits nothing but grounders). However, with Donald, it’s always something like “he’s not quite good enough here” or “he just doesn’t have any plus tools”. However, Donald has put up great numbers the past two years, and it looks like his power is growing by the year. Isn’t a defensively-average 2B, SS, or 3B who can put up a .300/.380/.475 line worth quite a bit, or is the thought that despite his numbers so far, he’ll regress back to his tools as he hits the majors?

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  63. Chris Snelling is Australian and directly helped the Phillies win two regular season games this year. Of course he wasn’t drafted by the Phillies and only appeared in 4 games as a Phillie…

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  68. “mike mike Says:
    December 23, 2008 at 1:43 pm
    How long have we been scouting Australia. and what prospect have we had that help us?”

    Better question is- are the still scouting australia- cause their scout quit to work for the tigers.

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  69. “allentown Says:
    December 23, 2008 at 1:27 pm
    I saw 90 – 94 FB from Garcia and a decent change at Reading. He got banged around when he started games throwing all FB.”

    Thanks allentown- good to see his velocity is still there.

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  70. The stats are out and the good news after the first 10 games of the Aussie Claxton tournament is that the Phils have 2 of the top 7 hitters down under– Harman at .395 and Tim Kennelly at .357. Kennelly is tied for second with 3 homers. Naughton is hitting .286. The bad news for Drew Nayor fans is that Daniel Schmidt, 4.35 ERA is outpitching Drew Naylor, 4.50 ERA.

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  71. A little interesting to peak at the rosters- some of our old friends down there- Mark Kelly is pitching very well, but was released last year, Mitch Graham spent a year in the GCL, and in the way-back machine- Grant Karlsen- man, i hadn’t thought about him in a long time- was he the original Aussie signing? he was in the GCL in 2003 (and is still only 24)- Harman didn’t start playing stateside until 2004.

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  74. PhillyVhuck: “It’s an inconsistent ranking IMHO…if you rank Carrasco ahead of Drabek, you have to rank Marson ahead of D’Arnaud.”

    My thought too. Makes me think the evaluators inject a high degree of feel into it. They start with stats but bring in subjective feel for who looks the studdiest to them.

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  75. Goldstein and Keith Law have both written about how they don’t think Marson will ever develop any power. Something about one plane ground ball swing and failure to “square up” or some such scouty talk. If he doesn’t develop power then you have to question his ability to retain the average and ability to draw the walk at the big league level. His defense is described as just OK. If he doesn’t hit .300 in the bigs it deosn’t look like he’ll be a star. Although he’s a good prospect, he has some pretty big concerns regarding his ability as he moves up the chain.

    Donald has concerns as well. He doesn’t look like he has the range for SS or the power bat or arm for 3B. So that leaves 2B or a utility role. Again. He’s a nice prospect but his potential for stardom is less than some of the other guys on the list.

    The Phils system is loaded with tool sheds. Maybe none of these guys pan out. But if just one or two do, they will be much better than Donald or Marson. D’Arnaud is a very fine defensive catcher who could do very well offensively as well. He is young and has done very well so far. He projects to be above average hitting and fielding if all goes well and it’s tough to find catchers who can do that at the big league level. He MIGHT do it though and I think that justifies his #4 ranking.

    Everyone has their own method of evaluating prospects. You could justify rating Carrasco, Happ, Marson and Donald in that order pretty easily. It just depends on what you value the most. Goldstein was valuing some other things though.

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  77. “allentown Says:
    December 23, 2008 at 1:27 pm
    I saw 90 – 94 FB from Garcia and a decent change at Reading. He got banged around when he started games throwing all FB.”

    Thanks allentown- good to see his velocity is still there.

    Someone said the phils want to teach pitching off fastball. True
    i guess but i hate force any one method in any sport.

    HAPPY HOLIDAYS TO ALL

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  78. Being as that Donald has been said to have a 70 arm on an 80 scale and BP went so far as to say he has a “cannon of an arm suited to 3B”, I kinda don’t buy the Donald doesn’t have the arm for 3B.

    On Marson’s swing: He does have a flat line-drive swing but he also has a great batter’s eye for strikezone recognition. You can alter a swing with coaching…the latter is somewhat more difficult to work on.

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  79. ***If he doesn’t develop power then you have to question his ability to retain the average and ability to draw the walk at the big league level. His defense is described as just OK. If he doesn’t hit .300 in the bigs it deosn’t look like he’ll be a star. Although he’s a good prospect, he has some pretty big concerns regarding his ability as he moves up the chain.***

    where to start with this?
    1. i don’t see any logic in the statement that not hitting for power will somehow damage his ability to draw walks or hit for average. honestly, were you drunk when you wrote that statement? that statement is based on nothing.
    2. his defense is more than ok. he threw out 36% of base stealers. he has been described as very athletic behind the plate and significantly improving. Russell Martin had more errors and passed balls in his age 22 AA season than Marson had and martin won a gold glove in the majors. they have been compared because they are both very athletic behind the plate.
    3. there were 2 catchers in mlb that hit above .300, including McCann who hit .301. Russell Martin, who is a 2 time all star (out of 3 seasons) hit 13 homeruns last year and .280. so to say that if he doesn’t hit above .300 in the majors than he can’t be an all star is again, based on nothing.
    4. he is 22 years old and has improved every year. why do you assume he has peaked?
    5. why does every team want him in a trade if he doesn’t project as a regular catcher?

    i can go on and on picking a part that statement, but you get the point.

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  80. McCann or Baker for that matter couldn’t throw out my santa much less a major league speedster. Most major leaguers
    dont develop power til 24. Naturals like Caberra,and Albert Pujols I view as exemptions. All Marson needs is open minds not a Phils trait in the past.

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  81. “1. i don’t see any logic in the statement that not hitting for power will somehow damage his ability to draw walks or hit for average. honestly, were you drunk when you wrote that statement? that statement is based on nothing.”

    While it’s not my statement, I’ll address this. Players need power at the very least to keep the defense honest. Jason Tyner might’ve had a major league career if defenses played him straight up. But they can cheat in. And then pitchers can throw more strikes because he won’t beat them deep.

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  82. I wasn’t drunk. What Alan said was part of it. Also, if you can’t hit for power, often big league pitchers wil take advantage of that and throw more strikes. There’s a name for it but I can’t remember it now. But it’s named after a minor league player who saw his very fine walk totals melt away as he advanced due to his lack of power. It also happened to our own Michael Bourn. It doesn’t happen all the time but it is a concern.

    But honestly, I was summing up what Goldstein wrote in the article at BP and what I had read from Law previously. I really haven seen either play all that much. I like both Donald and Marson as prospects but their are legitimate reasons to be concerned.

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  84. That’s it. The Rexrode Effect. The folks at BP loved him because he had really high walk totals in the low minors but no power. He never made it higher than AA.

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  85. Actually you could make a long long list of successful player who have little power:Brian Roberts,Freddy Sanchez, Orlando Cabrera ,Placido Polanco, Joe Mauer etc.
    As far as this stadium goes thing about if you cant get the ball over the fence hitting ground balls is not a bad thing
    More or less all infields are the same,but the outfield here is very limited making flies less likely to fall in. That is logic
    dont espect that from reporters
    happy hollidays

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  86. Michael Bourn could never hit LHP and still can’t. He is also a slap hitter who relies on speed to get on base. He also had very large K totals in minors and no where near the amount of plate patience that Marson has. While I can understand your point, Bourn is not a good comparison in my opinion.

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  87. Bourn couldn’t and still can’t hit LHP, which plays a major role in why he has struggled. Also he also had very high K totals in the minors, he didn’t have nearly the batters eye that Lou has.

    Also a thing to remember is Bourn regressed K/BB wise each age he went, where as Lou is progressing each year.

    I understand your point, and there are concerns about Lou. But I think him and Bourn aren’t a good comparison.

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  90. If marson becomes an above average catcher and D’arnaud continues to progress itll be intersting to see what happens

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  91. Regardless Donald will be a valuable player and why not give him a shot….or they could overpay for a 35 yr old past his prime

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  92. i honestly don’t get what you are talking about. there are tons of examples of major league stars or high quality players that do not hit for power but maintain a high batting average and ob%.
    – last year, there were 34 players in mlb that hit .300 or above. of those, 15 (or 44%) hit 20 or fewer home runs.
    – not one catcher in mlb hit more than 23 home runs last year.
    – the best two catchers in mlb, by far, hit 13 and 9 home runs last year and they led all catchers in walks too.

    i am not saying that having power doesn’t help get walks or help a batting average. obviously, hitting the ball hard helps a batting average. i am just saying the reverse doesn’t hold. the data doesn’t support your point.

    and michael bourn is a horrible data point to use for a comparison. his age 22 season in AA he batted .268 with a .356 ob%. he was also drafted out of college and did not show the same improvements at each stop. marson’s age 22 season in AA he batted .314 with a .433 ob%. that’s 80 basis points higher ob%! i don’t see how you could possibly hold those to players next to each other and draw the conclusion that you drew.

    as i said above, that arguement is based on nothing. no data can support it.

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  93. “Pete Rose didn’t exactly hit the cover off the ball either…and he had an okay career.”

    Pete Rose often finished in the top ten in extra base hits. His minor league numbers are eye-popping actually. 20 doubles and 30 triples in a single season in the FSL in 1961.

    Power is not just measured in home runs. It is measured in doubles and triples as well. There is a useful statistic called isolated slugging percentage (ISO). ISO is simply batting average subtracted from slugging percentage, and gives a reasonable approximation of a hitter’s true power.

    Jackie Rexrode’s minor league ISO was .072. Marson’s is .118. Russell Martin had a .116 mark in the majors last year, so if Marson can sustain that type of production he’ll have a career. .100 looks like the break even mark. It takes the Ichiros of the world to survive under that. Of course, a slow catcher without power is not the same as a fast outfielder without power.

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  94. PP fan. I never said no one can draw walks unless they hit for power. I said it is a possibility since it is something that does occur — it’s been studied and there is plenty of data to support it. If you get access to Baseball Prospectus you can look it up. But the Jackie Rexrode Syndrome does exist.

    I never said Bourn was a comparison to Marson. He is an example of the Rexrode Syndrome. Of course there are guys who can succeed at the big league level without power. A great example of the type of hitter Marson can be is Jason Kendell. Kendell hit for a high average and walked a lot without much power. There are lots of others. But there have been plenty of minor leaguers who did not make it because as they advanced, the better pitchers they faced were able to negate their ability to draw walks. It might happen with Marson and it might not. But it’s not something to ignore because it isn’t convenient or something like that.

    Again, I have access to BP and I’m summing up what Goldstein wrote and said (on his radio podcast thingie). His concerns regarding Marson and Donald are interesting. Take them or leave them. I don’t slavishly believe everything guys like he and Keith Law and Joe Sheehan write and say. But I do enjoy reading and listening to them because they add to the knowledge base and spark debate and cool stuff like that. They point out interesting things to look for as we watch Donald and Marson progress. I’d like to see both players on the big league roster sometime in ’09. If Utley isn’t ready on opening day, I’d like to see The Donald out there at 2B over Bruntlett or someone like that. But that doesn’t mean it’s not a good idea to try to increase our understanding of the two players’ possible weaknesses.

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  97. I think people talk past each other on Marson and Donald. Will Marson develop power with his flat swing, is it a ground ball swing, can he get walks without power, is he a future star, why can’t he be a major league regular at catcher, don’t other teams think he is? He likely will walk less in the majors. If promoted to bigs, he instantly goes from being one of the best hitters on his team to one of the worst, and certainly the most suspect. Pitchers will be a lot bolder in pitching to him and walks will be harder to come by. They likely will still come, but not in such great profusion, as the pitchers have more control and he is less feared. He will certainly get fewer hits for the same ability, as the average major league fielder has greater range. He seems to project as a major league starter. There is a big step from that to a star. He might get there, but iffier. An advantage of a flat, versus a loft, swing is the bat is in the zone longer and that should translate to a better battting average, if less HR power. A level swing is not a ground ball swing and not a bad thing. It is also a line drive swing. Marson has some power and the normal career trajectory sees him getting a bit more. Who knows how much more?

    This thing about Donald lacking 3B power is a little strange. The Phillies have ample power, yet it has been years since they had a 3B power bat. Donald likely never will have a prototypical 3B power bat like Schmidt and Rolen. He certainly should match Bell, Nunez, Feliz. So, what is the big deal with him playing 3B in Philly. He likely has the arm for 3B. This seems more an instance of the Phillies business as usual, both not wanting to threaten the major league 3B incumbent and picking to death the perceived faults of their minor leaguers who were not primo draft picks. Most minor leaguers get jobs with the Phillies when there is a vacancy that must be filled. In recent years, they’ve jerked around Howard, Utley, Floyd, Happ. An emergency opening gave Kendrick his chance. Even Hamels was blessed by need.

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  98. Well considering Ruiz posted a whopping .081 ISO last year, I think Marson will be okay. Granted Ruiz isn’t in the lineup because of his offensive prowess but still…

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  99. Dont forget Thome had to get hurt to give Howard a chance
    sometimes this organization needs a laxative. They seem to be reluctant to even try a young guy but spend millions and a failure and he plays until hell freezes over(read Jenkins and at a lower price So-S0) .

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  100. thank god some of you guys arent the phils gm. donald has improved every step he is compared to reyes,wright,h.ramirez in fantasy projections. marson has a flat swing. i dont care if he hits the ball with his head as long as he gets the job done. i guanantee that the 1st 2 players any team would want in any deal would be these 2. its called horsetrading . you want peavy hed be here tomorrow for donald and marson if hed come. and if i want aplayer im going to knock himk down as much as i can. once again im willing to my money where my mouth is. any takers.

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  102. carrasco, taylor, donald, and marson will all get called up at some point, although taylor will be like golson and marson last yr and not play

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  103. Taylor is a really long shot to get called up to big Phillies in 2009. Agree that the others will be up. Also Happ for sure and I would say Bastardo a better shot than Taylor.

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  104. I think that depends Allentown, if he’s crushing the ball in AA. There’s a decent chance he’d be a September call up.

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  105. Since Taylor isn’t on the 40 man I’d be surprised to see him as a September call-up, barring a rash of injuries. I think they’ll start him at AA and if he continues to rake will let him taste AAA, just like he did with A- and A+ this year, but I don’t see him making his way to Philly.

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  107. pat i personally believe donald will be in the class of zimmerman and wright but what i said was on phillies .com where they compare each prospect to fantasys projections. go to jason donald stats ss. phillies, when the page comes up on my comp. its the 1st but it could one of any of the sites on yours.

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  108. David Wright?

    You can’t be serious. There are a lot of over the top things posted on this blog, but to compare Jason Donald to one of the 10 best players in baseball just about takes the prize.

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  110. Wright has a career OPS of .922, and this is 4 seasons, his age 22, 23, 24, and 25 seasons. OPS+ of 139, 133, 150, and 141. And he’s an above average defensive 3B. If he’s not one of the 10 best players in baseball, then I guess I have no idea how to evaluate baseball players. I’d give you Hanley Ramirez, Pujols, Sizemore, Santana, A-Rod……who else? Wright is one of the 10 best players in baseball.

    I’ll eat my hat if Jason Donald ever puts up an OPS+ of 139 (Wright’s career average) in a season.

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  111. I’d put Teixeira & Utley over Wright too…though that still puts him in the Top 10. Although Teixeira is probably a push due to playing an easier position defensively. I’d still have Utley over him.

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  113. Arguing over placement of the top 10 in all of baseball is unnecessary.

    Fact of the matter is that comparing someone who projects to possibly be an above average MLB shortstop to a veteran, perennial all-star MLB third basement of similar age is completely RIDICULOUS, not to mention unfair to Jason Donald.

    John… you, sir, are a madman.

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  115. @john from philly.ne: Are you serious man? I’d trade Rollins for David Wright in a cocaine heartbeat.

    Pujols, A-Rod, Hanley Ramirez. Those are the three position players that I see as definitively better than Wright. He’s right there in the 4-to-8 level. I hate the mets, but c’mon.

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  116. wright is a very good player but therss no way id trade him for rollins. rollins is a better fielder,baserunner,clutch performer, and is the equal of wright in hits runs and has an above average hr and rbi especially for a more difficult position. plus hes a switch hitter. you make it sound like rollins is some bum ready to carry wrights bat. put them both in an open draft and i guarantee that at least 50% of the gm,s take rollins.by the way am i to believe youd trade howard for wright?

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  117. I like Donald a lot, but don’t think he projects to an above average major league SS, especially on defense. He is limited in range. Saying he is the equal of Wright strains credulity. Wright put up 4 great major league seasons by the age at which Donald will try to put up his first– other than as injury fill-in at start of this season, Donald likely not a major league regular until 2010. At age 23, Wright put up a .912 OPS in the majors. At age 23, Donald put up a .888 in AA. The edge has to go to Wright.

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  118. The Wright vs. Donald is a bizarre comparison. Donald might be Bill Mueller, maybe a tad more power if everything falls into place, WQright is potential HOF, in fact likelym if he stays healthy. Not even in the same category. I think you can say Donald has some special qualities and some skills without going overboard and saying he has top-tier talent, which he does not. Consummate professional? Maybe. 1 or 2 AS games? If all Jupiter’s moons line up right and there is a fortuitous opening. Top player? A major stretch. Not top 20 or 30. Maybe top 100 in 4-5 years. He’s the kind of guy, like Jeff Kent, who would become much better with roids.

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  119. please gentlemen drink responsibibly i compared donald to zimmerman. their is a site that compares minor league probable stars to current mlb. players that site listed h.ramirez, d. wright, j.reyes and the guy from cleveland as similar players. but lets not go the other way with the immortal bill mueller. to move on the new york bias continues on espn they list the top moments of 2008 as the giants win,the celtics win,phelps,and tiger. no phillies. are you bleeping kidding me. i heard francesca yesterday he didnt even mention the phils as top or anything. i guess he,s afraid of anyone joining his little yankees red sox country club. and by the way the longer burrell not being signed goes on the more bizarre the signing of ibanez becomes. burrell 1 or2 years ibanez 3. werth will be resigned thus taylor or brown will be blocked. and this strange burrell the butcher in left. more propoganda pat is a compatant of with a great arm. he catches what he gets to vic makes up the rest. ibanez might make sense without taylor or brown but with them?

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  120. Zimmerman isn’t in Wright class let alone donald. Can’t understand how anyone who has seen wright wouldn’t put him in the elite players.

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  121. Wright is definitely an elite player…hell if he keeps up his current pace and stays healthy, he’s a 1st ballot HoF.

    Ironic, Wright’s #1 most similar batter is Chase Utley. Through age 25 is most similar hitters are Eric Chavez (meh, talk about a letdown career wise) and Dick Allen (not too shabby, eh?)

    Wright is a very very good player.

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  126. I love Jimmy Rollins, but I’d have to accept a Rollins for Wright trade. David Wright is not only several years younger than Rollins, he is right on track for a HOF career whereas Rollins has, at best, only an outside chance to make the HOF. It’s not a “no brainer” because Rollins plays a more vital defensive position and because he has leadoff and power skills, but, truly, David Wright is more valuable.

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  127. utley based on 10,000 abs projects to over 500 hr,s and 3000 hits. true rollins does not but he is close 400 2500 which along with his leadership defense gets him in the hall. i wouldnt trade rollins for wright although i like wright he doesnt drag his team along like rollins does. think of jimmys play against wash. to clinch the division that will simply go down as a ground out to ss but anyone who saw it knows it wasnt.thats the problem with relying on stats only.remember wright so against the marlins with bases loaded on saturday to help the phillies win. it was lust a k except in the hearts of mets fans. its the same with howard his september was remarkable.

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  128. Only 24 players in MLB history managed 10,000 at bats. To project that for a player that became an MLB regular at 26 is silly. Utley should reach the Hall if he can contribute into his late 30s though.

    The only Phillie I wouldn’t trade straight up for David Wright is Chase Utley. The Mets’ problem wasn’t David Wright, is was their lack depth behind him.

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  129. “I would trade two Jason Donalds for one Andrew Zimmerman.” – Interesting idea Skunky but cloning Jason Donald might be too difficult to finish before Zimmerman’s best years are behind him. Besides, Nationals Scouts aren’t sure about a Donald-Donald double play combo and see them better as a platoon. The real question is why aren’t they cloning Hamels and Lidge.

    Also, hypothetically trading Jimmy Claus just ain’t Wright.

    At least we’re keeping on topic…

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  130. to alan 10,000 abs is merely a hypothetical figure to project a career based on all thihgs being equal. if you want to use 9,000 where 60 players reached go ahead, if you want to use 8,000 go ahead,which is about average for a mlb stars career. by the way if you traded hamels for wright youd be nuts.and who would you wany up in late sepyember with the bases loaded howard rollins or wright.the 2 best players on the mets are wright and reyes,maybe beltran and the past 3 years theyve choked.betran in 2006,reyesin 2007 and wright in 2008.mike schmidt is the greatest 3rd baseman in history yet he was not a clutch player and wright couldnt carry schmits jock.

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