Reader Top 30; #12

2009 Reader Top 30

Another day, another step closer to completing the Reader Top 30. Hard thrower Jason Knapp took the 11th spot with a solid 46% of the vote. The group behind him was real closely contested, with Mayberry, Bastardo and Garcia all gaining at least 10% of the vote. I was hoping to write up something on Joe Savery, but I’m not sure if I’ll have time Friday. Anyway, onto #12….

Knapp – 132
Mayberry – 53
Bastardo – 32
Garcia – 29
Sampson – 16
Naylor – 9
Stutes – 6

Write Ins

Galvis – 3
Valle, Cosart, Worley, Mattair, Berry – 1

01. Carlos Carrasco, RHP
02. Lou Marson, C
03. Jason Donald, SS
04. Kyle Drabek, RHP
05. Michael Taylor, OF
06. Dominic Brown, OF
07. JA Happ, LHP
08. Travis D’Arnaud, C
09. Joe Savery, LHP
10. Zach Collier, OF
11. Jason Knapp, RHP
12.

So here’s #12

148 thoughts on “Reader Top 30; #12”

  1. Going with Mayberry here, I really like what he did against lefties last year and Charlie seems really excited by the prospect of working with him on his swing. I think he might be a late bloomer.

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  2. I went Mayberry as well, I figure since he still does have big time upside and has succeeded at the upper levels on the minors he’s a safe bet. But a case can be made for Garcia/Bastardo here as well.

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  7. B-Mac, B, what reasons lead you to believe that Mayberry is a late bloomer and still has big time upside? I think you could justify taking Mayberry around this location, however, those two justifications are not what I would use. In fact, I would argue just the opposite. In my opinion, Mayberry’s worth is his proximity to the majors and as a somewhat known/proven commodity. As for me, I voted for Garcia, just like I have the past three times. I have a question for everyone, if the Phillies were to enter into a trade, and the opposing team were to say that the deal is done, and that the Phillies get to decide whether we include Garcia or Mayberry, would people honestly keep Mayberry over Garcia?

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  8. I might go Naylor again… He his Pitching this Sunday in Perth I believe. I am expecting a big outing from him.

    Former LHV Aussie Pitcher and recently free agent Travis Blackley has just signed for 40 man Roster on the Arizona Dbacks… heard it from the horse’s mouth himself.

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  9. I’ve been saying it for a week, and I don’t know how/if I can change anyone’s mind, but Garcia. Looks like I’ll be saying it for another few days.

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  10. I voted Mayberry. What makes people think he does not have upside and could not be a late bloomer? He’s a former #1 pick, his numbers all be it in homer friendly parks are still pretty good as far as homers and RBI”S. He is reportedly a good athelete for his size. I get the impression that sometimes people on this site fall in love with our prospects so much they may overrate them a little (which in a way is a good thing because it is nice to be excited about players in your system). If Mayberry was #17 on the Rangers list last year which Callis recently said was the best farm system in league, I got to believe he should be #12 on our list if not a little higher. I originally had him too high on the list (I originally voted for him at #4 which was way too high), but 9 to 12 seems about right to me. He absolutely should be ahead of Happ. Upside is great and that is generally what I look for as well, but just because Mayberry has not quite lived up to expectations in the minors does not mean he can’t still be a very good player.

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  11. i don’t know whats with the bastardo love affair. really has no more projection, doesn’t throw very hard, had an issue with his labrum and never really projected more than a reliever or #5 starter max. the only thing he has going for him is that he is lefthanded.

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  12. Due to the drop-off in quality in the higher projection types of players on down from here. So now you can work in a prospect with some more experience. I endorse John Mayberry Jr. at this position.

    I believe the whole “platoon player” thing was created by a cursory scanning of the whole “left-right splits” thing by those who make their “profound judgements” based upon a couple of sentences in an article or a single number. So, seeing that Mayberry’s average was higher against LHP than RHP automatically Maybery becomes a platoon player, and those who made this snap judgement will consider no other takes on it. Here it is: Mayberry high choice by Texas Rangers, arguably the most astute judge of talent among teams, the stats of Mayberry against RHP are not “that bad”, and Mayberry is really just acclimating to AAA, so the level of ability can be refined and increased.

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  13. Friar – I hope Garcia doesn’t lose by one vote. He still has my vote, and looks like he will again at #13 (and prob. # 14).

    I still don’t understand the love for Mayberry. Yes, he was ranked #17 last year, but that was before he didn’t hit very well in a hitters league (with the exception of LH pitching, which he bashed – hence the platoon statements by others). He was sure to drop this year in the rankings. Yes, he is a former #1 pick, but not all #1 picks pan out. I really hope he does. It would be a great find for Amaro, but I just don’t see it happening. I would’ve voted for Golson in this area because of his potential to be a multi-dimensional player, but Mayberry seems to be a one-dimension guy.

    Again, I really hope I am wrong and he knocks the cover off of the ball this year when somebody gets hurt in May.

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  14. Write in for Valle.

    If your a GM and we’re having a draft and you have your choice of Bastardo, Garcia, Mayberry, and Valle as they are now. Who do you pick? I’d chose Valle. That’s why he’s this high on my list.

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  15. reddeath Says
    i don’t know whats with the bastardo love affair. really has no more projection, doesn’t throw very hard, had an issue with his labrum and never really projected more than a reliever or #5 starter max. the only thing he has going for him is that he is lefthanded.
    Ya gotta luv his k rate especially at Clearwater plus a fine season in winter ball plus he survived Forbes/Filer
    plus luv is blind

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  16. I don’t understand the love affair with a 26 y/o AAA player. I think he has some potential to do something, but nothing special. I’d like to see some validation of why anyone could think he doesn’t suffer against RH pitchers dramatically. Let’s not forget, all those Ibanez supporters especially, how many RH pitchers there are. They do dominate the league.

    Sure he was #17 last year, at 25, but I think that’s the point the bloom is off the flower. Let’s not forget Garcia was #4 (!!!) for us at one point. He’s still 20, he’s at
    AA, he’s got a chance to be good.

    If he was so great why did the Rangers trade him for Golson? Garbage in, garbage out.

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  19. Neduol Caz- I agree with you that his positives include proximity to the majors as a somewhat known/proven commodity. However, I think it would be foolish to automatically write him off as a platoon player. He has great tools and good plate discipline, so I think some work with Charlie and some of our other coaches could improve his swing to a higher potency. I kind of compare him to Werth, who we thought was a one dimensional player until we gave him the chance to work with our coaching staff and play everyday, and he developed in to a high quality outfielder.

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  20. “Galvis—this guy is Ozzie Smith!!!”

    Must admit I have not voted for him yet.. But yeah.. Ozzie my fav player of all time and Galvis sort of floats more than a normal fielder with a sixth sense..

    He may just be a big thing in MLB if his bat holds up.

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  21. “Galvis—this guy is Ozzie Smith!!!”

    hmm, have you seen him play? Pretty good defense- but nothing really resembling Ozzie. Though Ozzie did have his own style. Perhaps a lesser version of Rey Ordonez- but maybe with age he’ll get to that point.

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  22. reddeath,

    Not sure ranking a guy at #10/11 is exactly a love affair but compare Bastardo with Garcia (the other guy with a love affair).

    Bastardo career #s (turned 23 in Sept).

    10.2 K per 9
    6.8 h per 9
    4.4 bb per 9
    2.69 ERA
    1.24 WHIP

    He has never given up more than a hit per inning or averaged less than a K per inning at any level. Yes, he had a labrum issue but is back throwing and appears healthy.

    Compare that to Garcia (turned 21 in Sept).

    6.8 K per 9
    9.4 h per 9
    2.5 bb per 9
    4.39 ERA
    1.33 WHIP

    Comparing those numbers and it isn’t particularly close in regards to which player does a better job of missing bats. If Bastardo doesn’t project to be anything more than a #5 starter, than where does that put Garcia?

    Just don’t buy that 2 years in age makes enough difference to put Garcia ahead of him.

    As for Mayberry, If you choose to ignore the splits then the guy is a .260 hitter who doesn’t get on base. Sounds a lot like Pedro Feliz without the defense.

    That is the reason to look at his L/R splits. His numbers against LHers are the only thing that make him a prospect at this point.

    Note: if my math works, it appears that he will be 25 this December and was not 25 for the 08 season as mentioned above.

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  23. Aussie Update.. Joel Naughtons RAMS team V Tim Kennellys Perth Heat Team.

    HEAT beat RAMS 6 to 3.. Joel Naughton gets single early and scores 1 then later equalises for the RAMS with a 2 RBI Double…. Joel 2 for 4 with 2RBI..

    Kennelly also goes 2 for 4 with a game winning 3RBI Homer in the 8th.

    Harman at 2nd Base had a quiet night going 1 for 4 against lowly placed South Australia.

    It looks like for sure both Naughton and Harman will be in the Aussie Team in Mexico for WBC.

    Naylor has some work to do yet as the possible starting rotation for the Aussies is looking like the strongest ever.

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  24. well said 3up3kkk. i couldn’t agree more. the guy gets swings and misses every where he pitches. you can project all you want, but at the end of the day, the name of the game is swings and misses.

    and i have not seen a scouting report that says he caps out as a 5th starter. if you have, please post it. i have heard that projection by people on this blog. but the one thing that just doesn’t stick with me is why he was put in the futures game. that is picked by GMs and execs. it was the world team, so no olypmics bias. and i know that some teams don’t want their guys in the game. but, i mean, the guy has to have something to even be considered, let alone picked.

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  25. Maybe Bastardo eventually becomes a great reliever is that so bad. Id rather wait for the end of the story then write the end

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  26. I think it will be interesting to see how the next 5-6 spots go, since the Phils have a bunch of intriguing pitchers: Sampson, Wurley, Stutes, Cisco, Garcia, and Bastardo.

    I went with Sampson, and my logic is as follows:

    Bastardo has some labrum issues, and is only a two pitch guy. I think he has a decent major league career ahead of him, but it will be as a lefty reliever. Personally, I feel that’s a good thing. J.C. Romero could have received consideration as World Series MVP.

    Garcia got rocked a bit too much at Reading. Yeah, he’s young and 3up3k made a valid point about him being at a proper level, but I would have liked to have seen a bit more.

    Stutes, Wurley and Cisco – all impressive, and responded when challenged. I want to see them do it for a full season.

    Thus, Sampson was my choice. He performed very consistently at Lakewood and was a groundball-inducing machine. I think as he matures, he’ll be able to be effective at higher velocities. The other criticism that I’ve heard was that he needs to learn to hide the ball better, and (in my opinion) that’s something that should be easily taught. I expect him to cut back on his WHIP at Clearwater and become a top 10 prospect this year.

    – Jeff

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  31. Agree at this point Mayberry is a platoon prospect at best. Hope it changes, but all the other comments are simply saying they hope he does this or think he might be able to do that, with coaching, etc. I like to stand on firmer footing than that.

    So it’s between Garcia and Batsardo. Either is a good choice, but I am on the Bastardo train. All Bastardo, all the time, until he wins.

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  33. Oh well, hopefully we get to do our own top 30’s again this year. Voting for Garcia four straight times isn’t fun.

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  34. here is what i don’t understand.

    compare savery to bastardo
    – same age
    – both with injury history, but both are pitching now
    – bastardo’s stats are night and day better and he has pitched at a higher level
    – people complain about bastardo’s 3rd pitch, but how about savery’s third pitch?
    – savery isn’t a low 90’s pitcher either

    so why is savery rate higher?

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  35. I would’ve voted Stutes, but he had no chance of winning, so I chose Bastardo. At this stage, you simply can’t dismiss his numbers.

    I see Mayberry more as a Charlie Manuel project than a top prospect. If Manuel can’t flip the switch in early 2009, Mayberry will soon be a 27 year old AAAA player. Regardless of when they’re drafted, 26 year olds “prospects” should rake in AAAA. I would’ve ranked Mayberry somewhere in the mid 20s.

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  36. For me, it was between Naylor and Mayberry Jr. Chose Naylor since I think he is a more valuable prospect at this point.

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  38. “The Savior Says:
    December 19, 2008 at 11:27 am
    When did Sampson have a 96mph? I missed that memo. I simply cannot believe that.”

    He max’s out at 96- i can vouch for that. Sits closer to 90-92.

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  40. PP Fan-
    I agree with you. Savery is the most overrated prospect on this list. He hasn’t shown stuff, command, velocity, durability, the ability to miss bats, or really any good numbers, and he’s still pitching at a low level. Any vote for Savery or Mayberry is a product of wishful thinking. I’m hoping Savery just wasn’t 100% healthy, and that he shows a huge improvement in Reading. He’s still a solid prospect, but certainly doesn’t deserve a top 10 grade over younger players with better numbers against similar competition.

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  42. I feel that age is the thing that’s giving everyone so much reserve with Mayberry. He was a college player and has only had 3 years as a pro. He has had to get over his dreaded Stanford swing, which held back Michael Taylor until his breakout season this year. Plus, the World Champions were made from older prospects. Look at the age of all our homegrown position prospects when they came up: Utley-24, Howard-24, Burrell-23, Ruiz-27, Victorino (Rule 5)- 25. I know youth is a premium with prospects, but I do feel that college prospects, especially hitters, need a bit longer to be ready for the majors. It is unreasonable to think that high school prospects and college prospects should reach the majors at the same age.

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  44. Stutes looks good here. Might make a very good reliever down the line. We’ll be needing them soon. Garcia hasn’t shown any type of dominance to show he’s a major leaguer.

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  45. Why do I like Stutes? Have you seen his numbers? ridiculous

    Stutes is a big guy at 6’5″, and pitches aggressively with a 93-94mph sinker and a nice curve. Stutes led Oregon St to a National Championship, but dropped to the 11th rd after a terrible senior year. Stutes might never be a frontline starter, but he’s looking like a definite major league #4. If he keeps it up, we could see him in Philly by 2010. I can’t see how a potential member of the 2010 rotation wouldn’t make it over a lot of these other guys.

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  46. So a 25 year old Mayberry who destroyed left handed pitching is not a prospect, but Happ who is 26 people wanted to put at 2-3-4? Happ marginal 5th starter, Mayberry could be a good right handed platoon and with Uncle Charlie’s tutoring could become more. I believe the Rangers wanted Golson so they could move Hamilton away from center field to keep him fresher (Marlon Byrd is the only other possible CF on their roster). Could also be change of scenery, see something in Golson they think they can change (which the Phils may see as well in Mayberry). Jayson Werth was a righthanded platoon player to start the year and you would not trade him for many minor leaguers.

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  47. After voting for Bastardo repeatedly, I am beginning to appreciate the Mayberry argument. I vote Mayberry with Bastardo right behind.

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  48. Garcia. Maybe people are scared off by his high ERA at AA but ERA is the least useful stat in baseball IMO.

    Mayberry Jr. has an outside shot at making the team out of spring training as a RH bat on the bench but for a 25 year old who’s 6’5″, 230 you’d expect better power numbers by now. Perhaps its unfair to compare him to his dad, but Mayberry Sr. had back-to-back 25 HR, 100 RBI seasons in MLB by the age of 25, with an OBP at .400 and OPS at .900. I’m open to the idea that Jr. is a late bloomer but his low OPS is not encouraging. I’d rather see him in AAA getting ABs and helping LHV score some runs for our pitchers. Still, the trade was a good one; I have him at #16 but a poor season in ’09 would drop him out of the top 30 on my list.

    As for Galvis: a lot has changed to the shortstop position over the years. It isn’t enough to be a wizard with the glove anymore, you’ve got to produce on offense. Until Galvis shows he isn’t a huge hole in the lineup I’m not going to get too excited. An OPS over .600 would be a start. Still, he’s only 19 and his glove will earn him extra time to improve at the plate. I have him on the bubble at #30 and may vote for someone else. Maybe he’s the type you need to see every day to fully appreciate.

    I would be a lot more excited by Bastardo if the words “frayed labrum” weren’t attached to him. Perhaps that’s unfair but it is a red flag. He did a fine job in his first season at AA and no one can deny he “misses bats” but Garcia is two years younger and has much better control. I have Bastardo at #15. If anyone has more details on his labrum please chime in.

    By the way, to get an idea just how much more difficult AA is than A+, look at the eye-opening change in Bastardo and Garcia’s stats, specifically H/9, K/9, BB/9, HR/9.

    You have to love a 6’5″ guy named Sampson but he needs a lot of work. His 1.51 WHIP and only 4.6K/9 at Lakewood is disappointing. I find 96 MPH awfully hard to believe — maybe that was before Delilah cut his hair. Still, I have him at #29 in case his hair grows back.

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  50. Section 205 Says:

    So a 25 year old Mayberry who destroyed left handed pitching is not a prospect, but Happ who is 26 people wanted to put at 2-3-4? Happ marginal 5th starter

    Make your point without attacking out players please.

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  51. Section 205,

    A solid LH starting pitcher is inherently more valuable than a solid platoon corner OF. What’s more, Happ showed he can compete at the ML level in September during a pressure packed pennant race. That’s big. Also, don’t forget Happ was set back one year due to injury. If Mayberry comes up and “destroys” lefties in the bigs next September then we’ll all wish we ranked him higher. Here’s hoping he does.

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  52. nowheels, “marginal” is hardly a scathing attack on Happ. I have Happ as a higher prospect than Mayberry, but just barely and have Drabek and Knapp higher than most of the voters, so I agree pitching is important, but Happ is not a 15-20 game winner. He is 12 on a really good year. Kendrick has basically done that, but I woulnd’t trade Jayson Werth (a solid platoon corner outfielder who blossomed late) to get Kendrick who is a marginal 5th starter. Also I would have traded Happ to get DeRosa who can give you quality at bats and solid defense at multiple positions. We all love Happ for what he did in September, but Coste did a lot for this team and not one of us likes him better than Marson.

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  54. Section 205,

    I think you ought to change your evaluation method if you’re going by possible wins. Kyle Kendrick won 10 and 11 games. I don’t think you can argue that Happ isn’t substantially better than Kendrick. So by your logic, Happ is a possible 15 game winner.

    But forget this wins nonsense. Even if Happ is a 4 or 5, you yourself say that Mayberry is a platoon guy. Any way you want to twist it, a solid 4 or 5 starter is going to be more valuable than a platoon player. Add to the fact that J.A. has major league experience and put up fantastic numbers at AAA this year and Mayberry still comes with a lot of questions.

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  55. XFACTOR:

    Agree or not, I enjoyed yr post immediately above.

    Good references. Have any more in your quill?

    Thanks.

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  57. Actually, Happ has a number of advantages over Mayberry. First, he put up good numbers during his major league appearances in 2008. That certainly gives him a leg up. Second, his AAA numbers are very good, better than Mayberry’s. Third, his 10K/9IP is a very encouraging peripheral.

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  58. Much like Kendrick was eventually figured out, so will Happ. I mentioned I have Happ ranked higher than Mayberry, only I would have them 11 and 12. The reason I have him higher is he has been to the show and can win some games if necessary. Mayberry is unproven, but so were Werth, Dobbs & Victorino (all platoon players at that point by the way). The Phils have a track record in this area. To prove my point about him as a prospect – who would you rather have as our 5th starter this year – Happ or Carrasco? Easy answer and it doesn’t have a J in it.

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  59. Sorry about the above post

    I don’t know how you can tell me Happ can be a 15 game winner on a few appearances in Sept. Believe me I hope he is, but there are way more guys that have had great Septembers and dissapointed later on, than went on to be 15 game winners. The names Bystrom, Combs, Grace, and Kendrick come to mind. I don’t mean to put down Happ because I like him, but in my eyes he has just as good a chance to have a Kendrick-like sophmore season than win 15 games. As a matter of fact gun to my head and choose one of those outcomes I would say the Kendrick sophmore season is more likely. I think a lot of people are overrating the guy off the euphoria of helping the team win the series. If you are going to say Mayberry does not have enough upside you can’t tell me about Happ’s upside on a few starts in Sept. Also great points by B-Mac about Howard, Utley and the other guys coming up in the 24-25 range. For the record Mayberry turns 25 on Sunday, not 26 or 27 like a few people have said. He will be playing all season at 25. I get the impression from some people that because Mayberry comes from another organization and he has not been followed closely (which why would he have been) people are focusing too much on the negatives than the positives Mayberry has.

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  61. Wrote in Sebastian Valle again. 17 year old catcher who handled the GCL, and gets good reviews from scouts.

    Re: John Mayberry. Here’s why he’s ranked too highly.
    OBP
    A+: .314
    AA: .311
    AAA: .316

    And this is a guy who reached AAA at the age of 24, he’s not young for his level or anything. And we’re going to put him at #12 because he hit well in 100 at bats against left handed pitching?!

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  62. Thanks, art! Sadly, my muse disappeared about the same time my boss started looking over my shoulder. They’re not exactly friends.

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  63. Am I imagining things, or did we just now switch to alternating shaded posts? A very welcome change, if it’s not just something I didn’t notice before.

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  65. I don’t think much of Mayberry at this point, and I was one of the people who had Happ pretty high. The difference I see is this: Happ has had some success in the majors, albeit in a fairly short period of time, Mayberry has not. Judging from how he pitched last season and his record in the minors, I’m confident that Happ can stick in the big leagues as a 4-5 starter and maybe as a three in an average to slightly below average rotation. Mayberry has yet to prove that he can have any success in the majors, let alone make a major league roster. I don’t think Happ will be “figured out” like Kendrick because he isn’t a one-pitch pitcher. He’s got better stuff and his k-rates in the minors support that. Also, as xfactor pointed out, Happ pretty much lost a year to injury, and Mayberry has not as far as I know. Mayberry just looks like a 4A player to me and I’d have him somewhere in the 20-30 range most likely.

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  66. I knew Swindle was gone but just was thinking how nice it is not having to hear every day how he could do all these great things. I really think it takes the league to see a pitcher at least two times. before we make him a fifteen games winner. Happ might be great but before we anoint him shouldn’t we see more of him.

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  67. I am reading MLB and they talking about texiria. The offer is near 23 million a year for 8 years, I would like to know if you took one year of that money and added it your next 5 drafts . you could go over slot and really have a chance to hit on some top end prospect. Why overpaid for this kid ,if boras isn’t stop,baseball is doom.

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  68. I had Happ at 8th and Mayberry at 13 on my personal list. I don’t see Happ as a 15 game winner, but wins is a very poor measure and can be much luck over talent. Eaton was simply awful in 2007 and wound up 10 – 10. In that same year, Moyer was merely bad and wound up 14 – 12, while having a 5.02 ERA. So yes, Happ could conceivably win 15 games, but I wouldn’t project him to do so.

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  69. mikemike —
    Don’t really see how that is Boras’ problem. Any agent can ask for any contract. No GM has to offer to match what the agent is asking. If some GM is willing to pay $23 mill for 8 seasons, then Boras would be negligent to ask for less. The blame here is with the owners and GMs. Boras big $250 mill inital ARod splash with Texas was with an owner who thought he could parlay an insane contract into spinoff business and success from notoriety. Any sane judgement would have said ARod wasn’t going to carry Texas to a WS. Few were surprised when the team turned out to not be very good. An agent’s job is to get the best contract possible for his client. Getting enough value from whatever $ amount is agreed to is the GM’s job.

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  70. Y’all can kiss Ryan Howard goodbye in 2 years. His chances of remaining a Phillies after 2011 (at the latest) are remote and very remote.

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  72. “Y’all can kiss Ryan Howard goodbye in 2 years. His chances of remaining a Phillies after 2011 (at the latest) are remote and very remote.”

    Conveniently around the same time he ceases to be a productive major league player.

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  73. allentown yeah your’e right I am just venting my frustration with the whole idea. How a couple of big market teams have gotten crazy with the payrolls. If I was a agent I would be doing the same thing.

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  75. “I don’t know how you can tell me Happ can be a 15 game winner on a few appearances in Sept. Believe me I hope he is, but there are way more guys that have had great Septembers and dissapointed later on, than went on to be 15 game winners.”—-Rod

    Rod,
    I’m not saying Happ is going to be a 15 game winner. In fact, the purpose of my post was to point out that it is ridiculous to ascribe “x game winner” to a pitcher as a means of projection.

    “Much like Kendrick was eventually figured out, so will Happ. I mentioned I have Happ ranked higher than Mayberry, only I would have them 11 and 12.”–Section 205

    I think you’re lost. Kendrick couldn’t miss a bat to save his life in the minors or majors. It was pretty clear that his 2007 success was the result of luck rather than skill. Happ on the other hand, just put up a 10.07 K/9 with a very good K/BB ratio. There isn’t anything to “figure out” here. That’s the type of phrase you use for someone like Kendrick, but not a player whose core numbers are in line with his peripheral stats. I really urge you to check out the stats on Happ b/c you either haven’t looked at the peripheral numbers or have a bias.

    “The Phils have a track record in this area. To prove my point about him as a prospect – who would you rather have as our 5th starter this year – Happ or Carrasco? Easy answer and it doesn’t have a J in it.”—205

    How does issuing a subjective opinion “prove” your point? I certainly don’t think it’s best to have Carlos start the year in the majors. From what I’ve read, most analysts seem to agree that he needs more minor league innings.

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  76. compelling arguments by all…and sorta wish I had read others points before voting…

    For me, we’re in an area perfectly befitting a possible late-blooming corner outfielder who can rake against LHP, and has plus speed for his hulking frame…

    If I were to change my mind, I would have voted for each of the other available choices except for Bastardo, although he has potential to be a nice LOOGY in MLB someday…

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  77. Edgar Garcia. Mayberry is not even in the top 20. Savery, Bastardo, Sampson all are people you would pick if you were
    starting a team.

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  78. I totally disagree. Mayberry at worst is a patoon player or pinchhitter off the bench. Right now based on what he has done and coming out of rice where pitchers are overused, Savery to me isn’t a top prospect. I hated the pick when they made it and still do. In my mind he was a easy sign for them a senior hurt lefthand pitcher where was he going he had to take what they offered.

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  79. I haven’t decided yet, but could not leave this comment alone:

    “Stutes is a big guy at 6′5″”

    Stutes is 6’1”…I had to double-check, but in person he definitely didn’t dominate physically like Sampson does. That being said, he throws big. Impressive, and I will be voting for him shortly after Garcia gets off the darn board.

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  81. I guess we look at players differently. Again, I am not killing Happ, he is better than Kendrick, I would rather use him than Chan Ho Park. I just think he gets a lot of respect for having pitched a few good games for the big club. Obviously we have a lot of people who love what he did and what they think he may be in the future. Also, everyone keeps telling me he is better than mayberry – I already told you I agree and personally ranked Happ higher, I just don’t have a man crush on him (mine is on Carrasco).

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  82. 205: I don’t think anyone is having a man crush on Happ, at least I haven’t seen it. He is in a borderline category of starters, probably a #4/#5, if not AAAA and slips back to minors in a year or so. He just does not have the killer pitches to put him in the Hamels level–that’s the guys you fall in love with. Maybe Carrasco is the only one we have close to that, but not that close. But he has struck out a lot of guys: 10+/9IP in his career. There is something going on there. Then his initial success as a starter last year was impressive. Much better than him getting shelled in 3 or 4 MLB appearnces, don’t you think? When you start to add plusses in, that builds some confidence in a prospect. So yes, he could be AAAA, but people are saying he might be better than Kendrick and stick as a bottom of rotation mainstay, and that is reasonable. Others are saying his high Ks might indicate he is a #3. I have not inflated my view of a #3 that much yet, so I think that’s asking for a little too much. Best bet is he pitches well enough to stick and that is what most people are saying.

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  83. lets not forget that Happ and the other youngster including catchers will now be exposed to Moyer the Guru. Happ’s
    advantage modern hitters cant hit high pitchs well and as the umpires see him more he will get more strikes.
    Btw I hope Myers isnt the starting pitcher in the first game
    well unless he shows up in great shape and it is a contract years isnt it. where the hell is spring

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  84. “mike mike Says:
    December 19, 2008 at 10:15 pm
    Savery to me isn’t a top prospect. I hated the pick when they made it and still do. In my mind he was a easy sign for them a senior hurt lefthand pitcher where was he going he had to take what they offered.”

    He wasn’t a senior sign.
    But you’re right, he’s not a top prospect until his stuff returns. He was a gamble- but I think it was a good risk/reward pick. He wasn’t by any means a dumpster diving pick.

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  85. the fish everyone is intitled to there opinion. But the better prospect was the kid Detroit took. and we passed on.

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  86. Sorry hit the button what my point was who would you have taken savery or petrollo from seton hall that detroit took. who has the better upside. the only reason we passed on these stud was money.

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  87. I think some folks bust guys too badly for one bad season, especially an injury-riddled season. Happ seems to be tremendously down-graded because of his bad 2007 when he had elbow woes. Other than that, just about everything about him says legit prospect. Third round choice. His first 3 seasons 2004-2006 took him all the way to AAA. Along that path, his highest ERA anywhere was 2.65. His highest oba at any stop was .216. He was right around a K an IP throughout that time period. For those who like to growl about ‘where’s the performance’, there it is, in a smooth arc through the farm. Then he got hurt in 2007. Looked very good again in 2008. If he remains healthy, he seems a very solid prospect.

    Kendrick’s minor league record isn’t as bad as some make it out to be. He started slowly, with oba consistently above .300 in his first 3 seasons (sometimes well above). But, in 2006 at Lakewood and Clearwater and then in 2007 at Reading, his numbers are quite good. The ERA drops below 3.50 and the oba down to about .250. So, his 2007 major league results don’t seem so flukish or lucky if viewed as part of a full two-season sweet spot. Since he reached Reading at age 22, he also was moving through the system at a good clip.

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  88. right on ALLENTOWN
    A Happ was misused by two teams. He should of been pulled after the fourth in his first start (he was rehabing at AAA)
    and he faced an extra batter in a pressure situation because Rollins made an error . He struck out the punk Reyes.
    He went back hurt finally straightened out and Russel
    did the “one more Inning thing”
    More young guys get hurt doing one more inning than u could imagine. A walk or strike out or two can put them in a bad pitch count thing. Especially a guy hurt twice before.
    Pittsburg now has Russel and Forbes good luct to them

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  91. PITTSBURGH PIRATES-Named Matt Walbeck manager, Dean Treanor pitching coach and Ryan Long hitting coach for Altoona (EL); Gary Robinson manager, Mike Steele pitching coach, Brandon Moore hitting coach and Mike Zalno trainer for State College (NYP); PJ Forbes manager for Lynchburg (Carolina) and Gary Green manager for West Virginia (SAL).

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  92. No, I meant exactly what I said. You can kiss Ryan Howard goodbye in 2 years (not 3), because in 2 years they are probably going to package him up to the Yankees for a boat load of prospects. This, of course, will depend if they have someone in the wings to play first and if they get the asking price they want. Ryan Howard will be a sexy player for the Yankees, Red Sox or the Dodgers. Not many players hit 58 home runs in a good season and hit 46 or 47 almost by accident. I think he will command quite a good return for the Phillies and, if not, they’ll have him play the last year and get some picks for him.

    Of course, there’s always the slim chance that he’ll stay in Philly. The odds of this go up the longer we stay in a recession and the team remains good. For now, however, I give it no better than about a 25-30% chance.

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  93. Thanks for finding out about Forbes. Was checking up on Johnny Coy he hasn’t gotten into a basketball game yet. Maybe he is hurt but it says did not play for all the games so far.

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  94. Prediction: Dom Brown is rated higher on both BP and BA’s prospect lists than he is here. I bet he goes ahead of Michael Taylor. I think Brown, Drabek and D’Arnaud are considered higher by the experts, and Taylor, Marson and Donald are considered a little bit lower. Carrasco will be #1 across the board.

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  95. I wonder if Bastardo and Garcia are splitting the “pitching vote” and allowing Mayberry the 12th spot; that is, if either pitcher was paired one-on-one against Mayberry, would they receive more of the vote?

    Granted, I’m not that high on Mayberry, but surely Garcia is a better prospect, all things considered.

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  96. Can’t argue about Carlos being the No.1 in the system. In his last 17 starts between AAA and the VWL his ERA is 1.95 in 83.2 innings with 91 strike outs and he has given up only 3 long balls. Should be an interesting battle between Carlos and Happ for the 5th starter spot in ST.

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  97. Here’s what I think. The team has long-term plans for Carrasco and part of those plans, no doubt, are to keep him from becoming a free agent. as long as possible. I think Happ starts out as the number 5 guy and Carrasco goes to AAA until at least the end of May, maybe early June.

    In the long run, the team is not going to need or want Myers, Blanton AND Carrasco. At least one of those guys is going to have to go and it’s not going to be Carrasco (as long as he does what is generally expected). Much of this year will be about figuring out who is likely to stay. With that said, amazingly, Blanton is starting to grow on me. We’ll see.

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  98. I think 2008 will be Myers last year in Philly. He will want a long-term, big-money deal as a FA and the Phillies will not match the market. The Phillies are gun-shy about big deals for pitchers anyway, and likely not inclined to do both Hamels and Myers. With Myers’ up-and-down performance, so-so appeal to fans, and off-the-field issues, I just don’t see management stepping up with the big $. That’s the bad news. The good news is he likely has a great and very well behaved 2008 playing for his big deal.

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  100. Sanity, I think you’re correct. I think the ‘experts’ weigh age very heavily…or so I’ve noticed. And while I understand the reasoning behind it (the younger they develop, the more years they have if the make it – among other reasons), I think the weight is too much. I also think they like to pick players that will peak readers’ interest in their insight by making such grand projections.

    I just don’t trust the media, I guess. I’d rather trust what I observed (i.e. – Brown vs. Taylor), along with some choice stats in a sizeable sample to back it up.

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  101. Allentown i loved the slush up there last night. You sorta made a point others seem tp ignore Myers , is not an ace,he is not even a good starting pitcher. He may of become a great relief
    pitch but management tried to prove WHATEVER and now he is going going gone

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  103. Ryan
    I have been on the situation in Reading long before i found this site, Even now no one in the media or the Phils wants to admit what a hell hole it was for pitchers. There is no reason for you to trust the media or teams.
    e.g. Wayne once said he was losing 20 mi on the Marlins in reality he channeled money into the stadium instead of the team. The press jumped on 20 mil story stupid jerks

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  104. nowheels I thought a while ago the phillies made a committment to field good competive teams in reading. Maybe I am wrong but the owners wanted a promise of good teams to draw crowds. what happen to that promise or am I wrong.

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  105. This season feels like it will be a make or break year for Savery as a starting pitcher. If he doesn’t make good solid improvement this year, they might want to see what kind of 1B he can be.

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  106. I doubt this is a make or break year for Savery. As a first round bonus baby he will at least get another two years to prove himself on the mound, probably three. I’d be curious to know how high he would have been drafted had he just been a first baseman. You’re probably looking at a 20th or 30th round pick – a first baseman who can hit a bit, but without much power – at least that’s how it seemed from a distance.

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  107. mike mike
    I dont understand baseball people. They had to know about
    Forbes I read some good awful quotes from him. Hamels was almost excluded from aa Huppert should of been the manager

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  108. Am I right about Rice university the school he attended. that the coach has burned out other pitchers, I Thought that I read it somewhere .

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  109. I got an email from Savery once on a blog thing. He seemed to like the coach and said he didnt allow the use of ice.which is something i am against in young pitchers since under 25s dont have full circulation yet who contrict the blood flow that has to get rid of lots of refuge after a start

    ps ever notice young pitchers get hurt the next start AFTER
    a large pitchcount game.

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  112. Neduol Caz Says:
    nowheels, have you ever used a fact to support an argument? Ever? Even once?

    yes if you cant understand something ask a specific question
    please. Personal attacks are not valid

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  114. I am sorry, nowheels. My inquiry was in no way meant to be a personal attack on you, it was meant to be an attack on your opinions. Which, in my mind, are two separate entities. Anyway, you said to ask a specific question if there is something of yours that I do not understand. Seeing how I rarely understand any of your comments, I went back through only this thread, and found many questions.

    You said that modern hitters can’t hit high pitches. I disagree completely. Obviously, the majority of hitters would prefer a ball in the strike zone or lower third of their stance, but I think that has always been the case. However, there are still many hitters who can absolutely crush a high fastball. I don’t think this has ever really changed. Also, does it even matter if hitters can’t hit high pitches, seeing as they are, you know, high and out of the strike zone? Seems to me that the easiest solution for a hitter would be to not swing. Next.

    You said that we can’t imagine how many young guys get hurt after going out to pitch one more inning. Well, you are right, I cannot imagine because that seems like it has absolutely no bases on facts, in fact, it sounds like gossipy hearsay. Now, I am a huge fan of controlling pitch counts and developing young pitchers at an appropriate pace. Hell, if I were running a team, I might even bubble wrap my young pitchers in between starts. But to say that so many young pitchers get hurt because of one extra inning in one game is complete nonsense in my opinion. Young pitchers get hurt because of a history of abuse, one accidental event that could occur in any inning at any time, or because they are pitchers! I think it is foolish and without any plausible foundation to point to one extra inning as the cause for so many problems.

    You also said that Myers is not a good starting pitcher. This is probably my favorite little gem of yours. In his first three years as a starter, at the ages of 21, 22, and 23, Myers was an average to slightly below average starting pitcher. His era+ for those three years was 91, 90, and 81 with a whip of 1.417, 1.456, 1.466. So, even if this was Myers’ career arc, I would argue that this makes him better than “not good”. However, in the two years that followed, Myers became a very good to excellent starting pitcher. In 2005 and 2006, he had an era+ of 118 and 120 and a whip of 1.212 and 1.298 respectively. He combined to pitch 413.3 innings, racking up 397 strikeouts with only 131 walks. Now, you also said that while Myers was not a good starting pitcher, he could have been a great relief pitcher. In his one season of relief, Myers pitched to a 107 era+ with a whip of 1.282. Which, by the way, is worst than his two previous starting seasons. Even though one would mostly expect a starter’s stuff and stats to tick up in short relief appearances. Finally on this subject, you said that management tried to prove “WHATEVER” and that now he is “going[,] going[,] gone[.]” I am not even sure where to begin as I have no idea what this means. Management traded for a man who did not blow a single save all season, and thus put Myers, a very successful starting pitcher, back into the rotation. I am not sure what they tried to prove and I highly doubt that you have any idea of what they tried to prove also. Also, I am not sure where he is going, where else he is going, and where he has gone. I am pretty sure that I will be able to find him in our starting rotation next year, hopefully building on the incredible second half of the season he had last year, so that he can fully return to the 120 era+ pitcher he was.

    Since I am getting hungry, I will only ask you to clarify one more question. You said that you have been on the situation in Reading for years before you became active on this site. Presumably, this comment is in addition to your usual nonsensical badgering of Reading and its staff. In previous posts, I have highlighted many pitchers who have matured and progressed nicely as prospects through Reading, including Carrasco. So, I am not going to do it again here. I just ask that you perhaps look at a single statistic before claiming that every pitcher gets blown to hell in Reading. Also, perhaps you could consider other reasons for why it seems like many pitchers fail at Reading. The most obvious being that it is commonly perceived to be the most difficult advancement in a prospects minor league journey. The jump from A+ to AA is very difficult, as AA hitters and pitchers generally begin to have a more professional approach. At the very least, you could perhaps cite a single example or fact to support the jibber-jabber you continue to spout about Reading.

    Again, nowheels, I am not trying to personally attack you. I just get frustrated by a lot of comments from you that seem to be rather random and vague, and would enjoy if you could prove what you have been saying. I love discussing/arguing minor league baseball with everyone here, and I think, that if we try to support our claims with facts, that the discussions will escalate to a higher level.

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  115. nepp savery is one of the guys i have seen and unless im really wrong he appears to be a better hitter than pitcher. actually a very good hitter. whoever brought up carrasco having mastered a 2nd pitch i hope your right. when i saw him pitch he had a very good fastball but lacked control of his slider.not as polished as happ but he is much younger.just a feeling but imo bastardo and knapp look like the next 2 prospects to move up. could be way wrong like i said just a feeling.

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  117. john from philly —
    The slider is Carrasco’s third pitch. One and two are fastball and change up. Both are very good pitches.

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  118. mike mike —
    I had some of the same conclusions watching many Reading games over the past two seasons. The Phillies as a major league team talk highly of pitchability, savvy, setting up hitters. I saw very little of that at Reading. What I saw a lot of was young guys like Carrasco, Garcia, Outman being trotted out to the mound, apparently with the instruction to throw nothing but a fastball for the first couple innings. There were nights when you saw perhaps 3 or 4 off-speed pitches in the first 3 or 4 IP. Then later in the game you saw the full repertoire, after the starter had been banged around a bit and was starting to tire. There were numerous games when you never saw our starter use his full repertoire and try to set up or fool hitters at a point in the game when he had his full stamina. I think that is a prime reason so many of the Reading starters did worse at Reading than elsewhere in the system. It just seemed stupid as the poor pitcher labored on the mound having fastball after fastball fouled off after getting two strikes. You’d think perfect spot for a change or curve, fully expecting and getting another fastball.

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  119. Neduol Caz Says:
    You said that modern hitters can’t hit high pitches. I disagree completely
    ans. Not only my words but we can disagree

    Neduol Caz Says:
    ou also said that Myers is not a good starting pitcher. This is probably my favorite little gem of yours. In his first three years as a starter,
    ans 2008 team loses says i am right .Check his effectiveness
    after 50 or so pitches especially before he got in shape

    Neduol Caz Says:
    You said that you have been on the situation in Reading for years before you became active on this site. Presumably, this comment is in addition to your usual nonsensical badgering of Reading and its staff. In previous posts, I have highlighted

    ans Where is that staff now!!! cheese i was right You can list the pitchers who have improved there for me.
    The thing that sets me off is the suffering young guys
    have to go through because of bad managers

    If you dont believe in Pitch Count check Jason Vargas
    Trader Jack desided he needed a complete game. He never
    pitched well again and only now is making stride 2 or 3 years later or Josh Johnson who they had to bring back
    after a 90 minute delay leading to surgery
    A young pitcher worse enemy is the manager period

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  121. As someone who doesn’t see much of reading. I can only go by what is written and hear. did carrasco numbers warranted him to be moved? why did the coaches get moved out after the year? especially when they were handling 4 allstar and some olympics player? Why is Myers velocity around 88 in a lot of his games. relief pitchers numbers to me are very hard to agrue for or against. if a guy pitches 17 relief games and gets 15 saves and two blow in the blown saves he gets hammer for 6 or 7 runs so point in 17 innings he gives up 13 runs but saves 15 games that good but what would his number be to say he was good what would his era or whip be?

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  122. Neudal Caz says:
    “I have highlighted many pitchers who have matured and progressed nicely as prospects through Reading, including Carrasco. So, I am not going to do it again here. I just ask that you perhaps look at a single statistic before claiming that every pitcher gets blown to hell in Reading. Also, perhaps you could consider other reasons for why it seems like many pitchers fail at Reading. The most obvious being that it is commonly perceived to be the most difficult advancement in a prospects minor league journey.”

    First, a pitcher passing through Reading and having later success doesn’t mean Reading staff did a good job. That’s like saying because littly Johnny grew up to be a very successful chemist, his HS chemistry teacher is proven to have done a good job, even though everyone who observed him thought him an uninspiring dolt with no command of his subject.

    Second, we should confine ourselves to the PJ Fprbes period, which the Phillies themselves seem to have moved to finally put behind them. I’m not sure who these pitchers are who you think thrived at Reading. Carrasco did well at CLW, then not so well at Reading, then in same year moved to AAA and did well. I have described above how I think he was misused at Reading. By the way, this is the same manner, or lesser version of at least, in the way the Phillies minor leagues ruined Floyd. Outman was more than slightly derailed at Reading. As was Carpenter. As was Garcia, although he was a very young late season promotion. So who, exactly are these pitchers who developed well and thrived at Reading, especially under Forbes.

    It is most interesting that a core of players who were champions at Lakewood and Clearwater under Huppert did not fare well as a team under Forbes. Neither of Forbes’ Reading teams performed well.

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  123. mike mike
    I believe Myers is old news. He will follow the pattern of coming in great shape ready to go toward a contract ,have a good to ok year and move on but i do think that he should of been in Gordon’s place when he went down and the prospect at least get a chance .
    Does anyone know when practice start for the world fames??

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  125. I thought Carrasco’s 3rd pitch was a curveball? Does he throw a slider and a curve or just a slider? or is it more of a slurve?

    PP?

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  126. A-town: I get your points and allow for the possibility that Reading coaching might have been a little whacky or detrimental to some pitchers’ development. But this brings up a bigger question to me:

    It is a valid viewpoint that some pitchers with good curves, changeups, etc. get away from using theie fastball (as with Myers last season until the minors). In doing so, they lose what many consider to be the most valuable pitch–the well-placed FB. I’m not saying that this is always the out pitch or the best pitch, just that this is the pitch you back hitters off the plate with, place it on the outside corner when they are looking inside, throw it high when they are looking low, etc. etc. Almost every pitcher, including a guy like Moyer, needs a well placed and well strategized FB to pitch well. Often, pitchers lose confidence in their FB and try to pitch backwards, working off their curveball, etc. If mangement sees this, they are well justified in attempting to develop more confidence in the pitcher in his FB, even if it means an occasional HR when it is left out over the plate.

    You might think this is arguing against your view, but I am not saying that. The place to teach good fundamental FB pitching is in FIL, short-season, A and A+. Reading is a place to start getting a pitcher ready for the majors with a fully organized and well-leveraged repertoire. If Forbes and staff were doing what you say, especially using questionable techniques, they could well be negatively affecting a pitcher’s development in some cases.

    Just wanted to point out that the approach to teaching pitching requires a solid long-term philosophy and does not include a radical teaching technique in high minors.

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  128. a-town ive seen carrasco and ive never seen an effective change up the 2nd pitch ive seen him throw was a slider,which i hope he has learned to throw.as far as floyd goes his record was the most decieving of any i saw last year. he wasnt ruined even with 16 wins he was still a dear in the headlights. actually he was bronson arroyo in pale hose. load up with lefties and tee off.

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  131. nowheels, I hate to be picky, but once again you really didn’t support your argument very well, or at all in fact. You did cite Myers’ loss total from 2008, while meaningless, it is a fact, I suppose. So I will just consider this heading in a positive direction and drop it.

    Allentown, Carrasco was developing nicely while still at Reading. I am not really even considering his stats at LHV, considering it was such a small sample size. If you look at Carrasco’s stats from the ’07 and ’08 seasons when he pitched at Reading, a definite improvement was made. His numbers are as follows: era – 4.86 to 4.32, whip – 1.58 to 1.34, K/IP – .7 to .95, and BB/IP – .65 to .39. That is significant improvement, all while at Reading.

    There are also other players who have succeeded at Reading while Forbes was the manager (’06 to ’08, I think). I don’t really give him too much credit in these player’s development, just like I do not criticize him too much when other players fail. However, here they are. Happ had a very nice half season under Forbes in ’06. He started 12 games and compiled 81 K’s with a 2.64 era and a 1.16 whip. His K/9 and era both improved from the first half of the ’06 season, when he played at CLW. Also in ’06, Mathieson started 14 games at Reading. In 93 IP he had 99 K’s with a 3.19 era and 1.10 whip. All improvements over the previous season at CLW. So, that is three players who all improved in their time at Reading.

    Doesn’t seem like a lot, you say? Perhaps you should take a look at the talent that was supplied to Forbes in his time at Reading. Maybe this will give you a better understanding of why it seems like all of our pitchers “fail” while at Reading. Even this year, I feel like many of the pitchers who “failed” at Reading really did not have all that much talent to begin with, like Brummett and Overholt. Carrasco succeeded, Garcia was a late season promotion, and Bastardo, while injured and controversial, succeeded. I just feel that there are many other reasons why pitchers hit a wall at Reading besides Forbes, mainly the jump from A+ to AA and a lack of talent.

    Finally, john, Carrasco’s second pitch and best breaking ball is most definitely the change up.

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  132. I put a nice scouting report in here the other day on Carrasco, the guy that broke him down watched him pitch 5 times and is a scout. Basically said he slows his arm on the slider and change which takes away from their quality. BUT every once in a while he doesn’t and the stuff that it produces was “a hellacious two plane slider, that made all the scouts look at each other and say what was that?”. His change has nice fade away from righties but like I said he needs to maintain arm speed.

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  133. “Even this year, I feel like many of the pitchers who “failed” at Reading really did not have all that much talent to begin with, like Brummett and Overholt.”

    Agree with this. The Phillies 2005 Top Ten for example featured such illustrious talents as Welinson Baez, Mike Costanzo and Tim Moss. If there are these can’t miss prospects who unexpectedly plummeted at Reading, I don’t see it.

    Double A is a huge step, the average age of a player in that league is nearly two years older than High A. That’s where experience starts to weed out pretenders from the pack.

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  134. ” thought Carrasco’s 3rd pitch was a curveball? Does he throw a slider and a curve or just a slider? or is it more of a slurve?”

    Historically his third pitch has been a curveball- maybe they’ve let him try a slider as he’s matured. It wasn’t a bad pitch, just inconsistent at times- nothing that could be confused with a slider though.

    ” john from philly.ne Says:
    December 21, 2008 at 1:56 pm
    a-town ive seen carrasco and ive never seen an effective change up the 2nd pitch ive seen him throw was a slider,which i hope he has learned to throw.”

    Check out his online video- whenever he gets into trouble with his fastball command, he just goes for the kill with his changeup. But like the poster Pat Burrell said, his arm speed telegraphs it too much some time- which leads some people to grade it as a less than stellar pitch for him.

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  135. Can’t really compare Carrasco end of 2007 at Reading to Carrasco 2008 at Reading and cite that as proof that he improved due to Reading coaching. First, his awful and not so great Reading 2007 and 2008 performances are sandwiched by very good 2007 at CLW and very good late 2008 at LV. Second, between Reading 2007 and Reading 2008 he had learning experiences in fall baseball and ST. It is not like he looked progressively better as the 2008 Reading season progressed.

    Reading had a ton of talent in 2008. Brummett and Overholt not bad as minor league relief talent. The real pitching talent starting the season was Carrasco, Carpenter, Outman, Castro. That was great starting pitching talent to open the season. It was teamed with the CLW core of Marson, Donald, Harmon, Slayden, and a returning Golson. This is a team that should have achieved far more than it did.

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  136. This summer I saw Carrasco pitch in Harrisburg. He started out throwing all fastballs and was being hit around. Then up to the plate stepped Dimitri Young, who was on rehab. This is where Carrasco threw all his pitches and blew Young away on 4 pitches. Then he went back to fastball only and got hit around some more. The same thing happened again when Young came to the plate. Whiffed him again with another back-foot slider. I guess the Phillies think this hones a pitcher’s command. I don’t know.
    Myers went thru the same thing back in 2001 when I saw him in AA. I suspect they turn them loose in AAA.

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  137. Allentown, if Carrasco’s improvement cannot be credited to Forbe’s and the Reading coaching staff, than other players’ failures certainly cannot be blamed on them. I am not saying that Carrasco’s advancement in ’08 was because of Forbes, in fact, I doubt Forbes had very much to do with Carrasco at all. But if that is true, then how can we turn around and say that Outman’s struggles are Forbes’ fault? Just doesn’t add up. Another thing, to say that Carrasco’s ’08 was because of fall appearances and a ST visit while completely discrediting where he spent the large majority of his time (Reading) is a bit silly.

    Also, if Castro is considered high end talent, then I think we should be praising Forbes for winning as many games as he did. A few other notes…

    I do not think Carpenter’s fat ass can be blamed on Forbe’s, either.

    Brummett was a SP.

    To label Overholt as “talent” of any kind paints a bleak picture of the actual talent level on a team.

    And finally, one of the most important things you said was when you mentioned that it was the successful CLW core. A+ to AA is a very difficult jump to make, and sometimes players just fall by the wayside, players like Harmon.

    One last note, Allentown. I do not think Forbes and the Reading coaching staff did a particularly great job. In fact, I think they probably did an average job at the very best. It just seems like they get the shaft far too often with very little evidence to actually back it up. So, I guess I am just playing devils advocate more than anything, even though I believe in everything I wrote and think it is true. Have a good night, everyone.

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  139. Naz Did u notice Happ’s stats at Reading included only 2 hr
    ok it was only a half a season but I believe he was ready then
    rather bring in Garcia and Eaton. Of cource the Phils will say no
    to cover but Myers in a full season there allowed 21 hrs.
    I get your point about Carpenter. This team has to get more
    strict on conditioning. Blanton and early season Myers are too
    more examples. Maybe Ruben will be more in step with that.

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  140. I would like to know who had the idea to bring J. Durbin to
    Reading after he utter failure at AAA and essentiallly give him
    Outman’s starts. I dont think that was Forbes idea but
    baseball people find a favorite player or idea and wont let it go
    no matter what

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  141. Did some research on pitchers at Reading during P.J. Forbes reign of terror as manager (06-08) and don’t see anything out of the ordinary. Below is a breakdown of players who made more than 5 starts in any of those 3 seasons. In all, that accounts for 25 pitchers.

    First, lets skip the roster fillers: Alan Davis, Tim McClaskey, Jon Stephens, Landon Jacobsen, Chris Rojas, J.D. Durbin, Kip Bouknight, and Travis Minix. That leaves 17…

    Next, take out those who weren’t in Reading for long enough to be corrupted. 4 players..

    Brian Mazzone only pitched 37 innings before being promoted to AAA.
    Heath Totten pitched 56 innings before being promoted to AAA where he was terrible
    J.A. Happ pitched very well in his 74 innings before being promoted to AAA
    Kyle Kendrick pitched well enough in his 81 innings to be promoted to the big club and win 10 games.

    Of the 13 players remaining, the following are no longer at Reading for various reasons.

    Gio Golzalez had a so-so season in 06 and was then traded to the White Sox in the Garcia deal that off-season.

    Scott Mathieson had a very good 2006 season at AA and was promoted to the majors. We all know his TJ surgery history.

    Matt Maloney was having an average season in 07 before being traded to Cincy in the Lohse deal.

    Zack Segovia had a very good 2006 season before running into arm problems. He is no longer in the Phillies organization.

    Daniel Haigwood had an ok 2006 season in Reading but was not kept. He was terrible with Boston in 07 before having a decent 08 season.

    Fabio Castro was demoted from AAA back to Reading in 08 where he put up decent numbers.

    Josh Outman started in Reading in 07 and put up ok numbers. He returned to Reading again in 08 where his numbers improved across the board in ERA, Whip, W/9, K/9. However, the organization decided to switch him to become a reliever and then he was traded to Oakland as part of the Blanton deal.

    Carlos Carrasco – Carrasco also hit AA in 07 where he struggled a bit with his control. He returned to Reading in 08 and his numbers also showed improvement in his ERA, W/9 (dropped more than 2 bb per 9) and K/9 (increased by more than 2K/9). His H/9 rate increased slightly. He was eventually promoted to AAA at the end of the 08 season.

    That leaves 5 players who are still at Reading.

    Pat Overholt – Struggled in both 2007 and 2008. He was converted to mostly relieving in 08 and doesn’t appear to be much of a prospect.

    Andrew Carpenter – Put up bad number in his first 16 starts at AA ball after receiving an in season promotion.

    Tyson Brummett – Brummett made the move all the way from the Sally league to Reading in 08 and struggled at the AA level. Will probably get chance to repeat AA and improve his numbers.

    Antonio Bastardo – Bastardo was putting up good numbers and was everyone’s favorite up and comer until he suffered his labrum issue. Seems to be back healthy

    E. Garcia – Made the jump from A+ to AA ball at the age of 20 and struggled in his 58 innings. Not enough sample size to make a decision about his future success at this level.

    Looking at this list of players, name 1 player who appears to have been adversely affected by bad management by the Reading staff. As to the observations by some about their pitchers throwing only fastballs early in the game. Maybe that approach is being dictated by the organization because they want their prospects to learn how to pitch off of their fastballs. I know that Dubee has stated on many occasions that that is his philosophy. It was one of the issues they had with Myers early in the year.

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  142. walls and harker? how many did u say progressed.
    how many hit the dl. You cant leave some facts out there must be some reason he was fired and had the record he did.
    I quess we will disagree forever. I am not a Dubee fan . Where is he when Charlie is doing silly things

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  143. No Wheels, As I stated in the beginning, I based my list off of guys who had at least 5 STARTS during a season at Reading. Harker and Walls were strictly relievers but if you have some facts (as opposed to opinions) that I left out, please provide them.

    Also, can you let us know how many pitchers in other organizations hit the dl and was that % higher or lower than the Phillies had at AA. Having pitchers go on the DL isn’t particularly unusual..

    On a side note: I get the impression that you really don’t like any of the Phillies managers/coaches…

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  144. Also, it is minor league baseball so it doesn’t really matter what his record was. But if you care, he was 71-69 in 06, 70-71 in 07, and 53-89 in 08.

    Think that 08 record was affected by Donald and Marson leaving for the Olympics, Bastardo’s Labrum and Golson’s wrist injury as well as trying to work in a bunch of guys promoted from A-ball who struggled out of the gate??

    I don’t see the AA team enough to know if Forbes is a bad manager or not but there is nothing in the development of their players that indicate he was a disaster to the system.

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  145. to whom it may concern,i only said what i had seen of carrasco. i am thankful for the scouting reports because from what i have seen he is not ready, especilly if he is chaging arm speed. as i have said repeatedly the 3 players who are absolutely ready to break out are donald,marson, and happ. for the one millionth time they gain nothing by aaa. but i believe marson is the only one who will be sent to aaa unless he goes berserk in clearwater next month. by the end of this season donald will be impossible to sit down and happ will win app.12 games. any takers? by the way castro is not a mlb. pitcher.

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  146. 3up
    I guess one could make a case for anyone if they one . Like I said let agree to disagree. I thought Huppert was the logical
    choice.

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  148. Not to be critical but these threads are for discussions of Phillies prospects, not random advertising of your blog. I highly doubt James would appreciate these posts for your website…

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