We’ve now got 1/3 of our Top 30 completed, with 2008 supplemental first rounder Zach Collier rounding out the Top 10. Collier had an impressive debut and has already drawn Garrett Anderson comps, so the sky is the limit. Things will get tricky now as we move into the 11-20 range. Lots of interesting guys, and the voting figures to be tight. Also, just a heads up, Kevin Goldstein will unleash his Phillies Top 11 prospects at Baseball Prospectus in the next day or two, and hes agreed to do a Q/A for us again. If you aren’t a BP subscriber, now is as good a time as any. Not only do you get multiple prospect updates every week from KG, but you get good MLB analysis as well. So be on the lookout for the Phillies Top 11, I’ll have some thoughts on it when its posted (please don’t post the full scouting reports or anything of the sort) and then I’ll take questions for Kevin. Anyway, onto number 11…
Results from #10
Collier – 91
Knapp – 71
Mayberry – 47
Bastardo – 33
Garcia – 27
Naylor – 10
Stutes – 9
Cisco, Worley, and Sampson – 2
Mattair, Carpenter, Mathieson and Andy Tracy – 1
Someone really wrote in Andy Tracy? Come on now.
Since we’re limited to 7 poll choices, only 1 of Cisco, Worley and Sampson can go in here, the others will need write-in votes. I’ll make the executive decision and add Sampson to the list, as he was the highest of the 3 (by default) in last year’s voting.
Phuture Phillies 
I’d really like Bastardo in this spot, but i’ll go with Garcia again since he’s left on the board. A lot of people seem to value ceiling well above everything else, I think you need to weigh the likelihood that they’ll actually make a contribution in the majors as well. Garcia has a considerably better shot at this point than anybody who we just drafted earlier this year.
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Andy Tracy?! hahaha
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I went with Knapp again. Bastardo’s HR and BB numbers were a little scary at Reading.
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I don’t see how you can say that Handzus. Garcia may only be 20 and may have already reached Reading, but he got absolutely shellacked. He needs at least two more full seasons in the minors, and he hasn’t really shown anything, at least statwise, to make anybody think that he’s anything more than a 10 cent head with good but not overpowering stuff.
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Went with Knapp. Some arm issues in his past (could be attributed to general soreness) make him a concern. But overall every report seems like he has some movement on a plus fastball but needs to develop some secondary pitches.
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andy tracy reminds me of kevin stocker. minus his 93 year when he batted over .300.
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Since the manager and pitching coach were dishonarable demoted my new theme is
“what happened in Reading stays in Reading”
bastardo
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Okay, I lied. I said I wouldn’t vote for Mayberry again and that I’d go for one of the younger guys. But I went for Mayberry again.
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Silliness aside with Andy Tracy, he’s not even rookie eligible.
Cast a write-in vote for Sebastian Valle here. Not only was he one of the few 17 year olds in the Gulf Coast League, he was one of the best. That puts him neck and neck with Knapp, and this far from the majors I’ll take the hitter over the pitcher.
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I’ll go with Aussie Mate Naylor.
Drew is a rough chance of being in Aussie WBC team in Mexico if he shows his true form soon in the Aussie Claxton League.
If he settles in next season in USA I think he might even have a game or 2 in Reading.
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John Mayberry again…for much the same reasons as before…its really hard to project out a 18 year old pitcher like Knapp.
and Andy Tracy!?! Unlike some of these guys, he at least has put on a Phillies uniform one time. Still, Andy Tracy??? Too funny.
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Not that I have him this high, but considering some of the other prospects who’ve received votes, I’m surprised Andrew Carpenter has gotten more love.
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I vote Jason Knapp. It’s all about the upside. Got the production in GCL, looks good on the MLB scouting video, if he just maintains the physiological soundness, what more do you need here?
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Now that the top 10 has been voted on, how much has our system improved over last yr?
Are we still bottom 1/3 or are we now more in the 17-21 range? Thoughts anyone?
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I agree with NEPP and go with Mayberry, I love what he did against lefties last year and 18 year old pitchers are too hard to project.
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Knapp. If he wins this round then I will be voting for Valle next.
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Garcia.
Are we going to have to have the ‘Bastardo profiles into the bullpen’ argument again?
Are we going to put Mayberry, who is a 4th OF at best, ahead of someone who could be in our rotation in 2-3 years?
So Garcia had 11 bad starts at AA at age 20. His numbers over the past three years have been strong. How much are you going to penalize him for growing pains at AA? He’s shown he has it at every other level!
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Went with Jason Knapp, I am worried about his health over the next few years and think there’s a good chance he could wash out unless his delivery and mechanics are cleaned up. That being said, you can’t deny his upside which is higher the J. Sampsons I believe.
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knapp
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Have to go with Garcia here, I have a hard time putting full confidence in shortseason performance. D’arby myers, anyone?
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garcia.
i don’t know how you guys can vote a guy in the top 10 who only has a half a season of pro ball under their belt.
garcia is 20, in AA, and has done well at every rung of the ladder.
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Ryan: I voted for Knapp, but you make a good point about short season performance. Still, when you begin comparing high ceiling guys with more marginal talents, it’s not unreasonable to pick a potential #1/#2 starter over guys who could be spare parts or who have never performed consistently. Knapp was consistently dominant, albeit in GCL. Garcia had a very good game once in a while but a lot of mediocre ones and an occasional stinker in between. His projection is pretty muddled to me. And a guy like Batardo, as has been discussed, looks like a middle reliever, at least for the first few years.
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Voted for Knapp. #11 is a high slot for a rookie ball pitcher, but he has potential #1 talent. 6-5 235 lbs with a fastball consistently in the mid 90s; dominant in his pro debut.
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Knapp.
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Garcia for all the reasons mentioned above. Knapp is a closer of the future, not a 1-2 starter.
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I had to debate Knapp vs. Mayberry in this spot, but I have to go with Knapp purely because he has a higher ceiling – he’s throwing high 90s as a high schooler.
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The choice of Knapp over Sampson seems more a matter of filling in what you don’t know about Knapp with more positives then you know about Sampson. Sampson is capable of the same velocity as Knapp, has a great body with room for projection, and has issues with secondary pitches as well. Where they differ is that Sampson’s delivery is silky smooth, and he has a year of full season ball under his belt. Sampson is the better prospect at this point until Knapp proves otherwise.
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the fish- Good point.
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i agree. we are really projecting here. collier, knapp. i mean doesn’t proving it mean anything anymore. we are falling in love with our own fantasies of a player’s ceiling. it is almost like no one here knows history. every year there are tons of fresh faces that come in with these tools and projection-ables and very, very few of them actually pan out. maybe i am just old school, but i wieght actual production much higher than most posters on this blog. i don’t see how bastardo is still on the board. the guy gets swing and misses. he was also selected to the futures game. i mean scouts and gms obviously feel he has got something going for him besides being a middle reliever, which most posters seem to think is his ceiling.
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D’arby myers shouldn’t make the top 50. He couldn’t hit over the Mendoza Line last year at Lakewood. And don’t start again with the sporadic play excuses, and he’s so fast he causes errors therefore hurting his stats. He played fulltime in the first half and had to move down to Wmsport.
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“Have to go with Garcia here, I have a hard time putting full confidence in shortseason performance. D’arby myers, anyone?”
Myers’ problem is that while compiling that high batting average, he struck out 32 times while walking just seven times. Collier for example has a far better 28:17 ratio. Valle’s is not as impressive but he hit for more power. When looking at those young players, you have to dig into those peripheral numbers.
I value upside in my prospects more than anything. Your guys who could be 4th outfielders, utility players, backup catchers, 5th starters, etc., you can pluck them off the free agent market or waiver wire.
With short season/rookie guys, I want to see some positive scouting reports. When those match up with the numbers, run with it.
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Edgar Garcia.
Yes, the Double-A numbers are disappointing. But he’s been young for his level at every stop, has generally flashed good command, and shows no significant platoon split. He should spend his entire Age 21 season in Reading — where he’s still ahead of the curve, mind you — and he’s still a decent bet to profile as a #3/4 starter when all is said and done. He’s much further along than Knapp, and a much better bet to stick as a starter than Bastardo.
The fish makes some good points in his comparison of Sampson and Knapp, and the concerns regarding Knapp’s delivery are legitimate. That being said, Knapp put up very good numbers in the GCL at age 17, and is on track to tackle Lakewood at 18 if the Phils decide to unleash him there. On the other hand, Sampson’s numbers at Lakewood — aside from his 53.0% ground ball rate — were pedestrian. They’re both from cold weather states, but Jason’s got the jump on Julian in early development, and that’s why I’d rank him higher at this point.
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Oh, and I wanted to ask… in the interest of getting some good-natured back-and-forth going, can some of those voting for John Mayberry, Jr. respond to the argument that he’s likely a platoon player? Do those voting for him see more potential than that, or are they making a value judgment that his floor merits higher placement on this list than a raw player like Knapp?
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Hmm, how does Knapp have number one potential? This confuses me mightily. If I remember correctly, the scouting report on him coming into the draft was that he was a big kid, with a big, straight fastball, no secondary pitches to speak of, and one horrible delivery. So, basically, throwing a baseball really, really, really hard constitutes number one potential? Not in my book. In fact, I would take Sampson’s and Garcia’s potential over Knapp’s. Perhaps I am crazy… Also, as a bit of a side note, I cannot wait to see what kind of season Garcia can put together this year at AA. In my opinion, Garcia has been pushed through the system for very little rhyme or reason. He has pitched at 5 different levels in four seasons of pro ball, never repeating a single level. Give this kid a breather and lets see what he can do. Also, just for the record, I voted for Garcia at number ten and eleven… and most likely at twelve and thirteen as well.
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I was torn between Garcia and Knapp, but went for Knapp. Garcia next round.
Ducky —
Don’t see how you can say Garcia didn’t show anything. Yes, he got shelled at Reading at age 20, but had very nice numbers at Clearwater, for which age 20 is still very young.
I’ll just give his WHIP, which was 1.26. However, if you look at any stat — ERA, WHIP, K/9,BB/9 — Garcia has better stats, sometimes significantly better, than Savery and Naylor. Yet Savery and Naylor seem to be getting as much or more support here than Garcia. Doesn’t make sense to me.
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I should have added that Garcia is also younger than both Naylor and Savery, making his advantage over them all the greater.
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Im going Mayberry.
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Im stuck between Sampson, Knapp, and Valle with Garcia, Naylor, and Mayberry right in the mix. IMO its a toss up on who fills out the 11-17 spots and you cant really go wrong with it.
Im going with Sampson over Garcia and Knapp once he gets some secondary pitches down he will be VERY good.
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Here’s a question guys, put the guys with more then 10% of the vote in order of potential.
1 – Knapp
2 – Bastardo
3 – Garcia
4 – Mayberry
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Didn’t have time to post a comment on my #10, Garcia, and I have to go with him again here at 11. I will try not to repeat the positive arguments made for hm that have been posted above. I can’t deny him though. As far as I’ve seen he has done nothing to decrease his prospect status in the system over the past year. Yes, he struggled at Reading, but at 20 yrs. old and with some questionable coaching. I like his career SO/BB ratio and think with some maturity and seasoning he has very good potential.
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Bergeraj- I think there is definitely a difference between 11 and 17. Plus, I think Sampson, Garcia, and Knapp all could be very good if they develop a couple secondary pitches.
Anonymous –
1 – Knapp
2 – Garcia
3 – Bastardo
4 – Mayberry
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Edgar Garcia.
Garcia’s AA numbers from last season are ugly but he should have a much better time of it the second time around. The jump from A+ to AA is huge, much bigger than from AA to AAA, so I’m not shocked he struggled. Garcia clearly can’t rely on hitters getting themselves out as much anymore. AA hitters are more disciplined at working into hitter’s counts and make you pay more often when they do. He needs to adjust but I like his chances since he’s still young for AA and now has an idea of what he’s up against.
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Garcia sure does seem to have a vocal bunch of supporters (myself included). It seems that his supporters are the only ones really posting, because his vote totals aren’t mimicking the discussion traffic. 🙂
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Annie, the point of the D’arby reference was to point out how some people have the tendancy to take one instance good shortseason stats and declare that person to have a ‘high ceiling’ – D’arby was (I think…) top 10 at the start of the season last year before his awful first half at Lakewood. I’m not saying every prospect will flop like D’arby, just to be wary of making short season a strong indicator. (Another point – Michael Taylor had a pretty dismal shortseason…)
IMO, you can’t ignore Garcia’s experience up to AA. They say A+ to AA is the biggest jump, even the Phils org had most of their talent at this level. I fully expect him to have much improved numbers at AA next year.
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Greg, I’ll jump in as someone who isn’t nearly as high on Garcia as all of you “vocal” supporters.
I just don’t see anything in Garcia’s numbers or stuff that jump out as his being anything more than a future swingman at the ML level.
Yes, its impressive that he has made it to AA ball by the age of 20 and speaks to the fact that he possesses maturity and composure for his age. But what in his numbers actually justify his quick rise through the system or anyone’s belief that he will become a quality ML starter other than his age/level?
He has given up more than 1 hit per inning at every level in the minors and K’s less than a batter per inning. He doesn’t walk a lot of hitters but his k/bb ratio isn’t particularly spectacular either and he hasn’t posted an ERA under 3.9 since low a-ball in 2006. He gives up a Hr every 10-12 IP.
Add in that by most accounts I have seen, he doesn’t throw particulary hard (low-90’s although with good movement) or possess secondary pitches that are considered “out” pitches like Hamel’s change-up or Drabek’s curve-ball.
So aside for the fact that he apparently knows how to pitch, I don’t see much there to justify all of that “vocal” support.
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3up —
Now do that same analysis for Savery and Naylor. You’ll find their numbers at CLW don’t stack up to Garcia’s. Yet folks seem higher on Savery and Naylor. Why?
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It seems odd to me that Collier would be top ten. He had so little time in the minors and can’t figure out why people are so much in tune with him being a top prospect. I feel I was a little like that with D’myers and now will wait to see them in higher levels. If we are kooking at a fast track my pick at this spot is swimmer.
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Ducky, I see what you’re saying, and by no means is Garcia a sure thing. But Knapp has only completed one go around in the GCL, and there are some concerns about his delivery and, as a result, health concerns. There are countless numbers of guys who have looked great in rookie ball and never made it to AA. Theres just so much uncertainty I have a hard time putting anybody who hasn’t played in a full season league in the top 15 right now. I may have Knapp at around 13 or 14, because I love his potential as much as anybody, but if you go with the odds, he won’t make it.
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Worley has the tools and is getting the instruction. May be the sleeper of the year.
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Can I change my vote? I voted for Knapp. Just looked carefully at all stats for pitchers under discussion. For WHIP, BAA, K/9, and 1 or 2 others, Bastardo is far and away above the crowd. Not even close. So I vote for him. Here are the stat leaders in the four under discussion:
1. Bastardo
2. Knapp
3. Naylor
4. Garcia
Sure Garcia is young, but he has not performed quite as good as these guys. I also throw out Knapp for a few rounds, however promising he is. Not enough track reord–I have been swayed by several posts above on that issue. Thanks for the perspective guys. I voted too hastily.
I have come to the conclusion that Bastardo is one of the well-kept secrets in the minors and might pitch for Phils this year against lefties if he is healthy and needed. GREAT splits. Looks like lefties have no chance. Last year he walked more than usual, but his other perripherals remained very good. I will give him a pass because he battled injuries. If healthy, eventually maybe more than a LOOGY, maybe a starter or setup guy, at least that’s the upside.
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@ 3up3kkk:
Fair points. With regard to Garcia’s numbers, you’re right to say that they aren’t eye-popping by any stretch. But two counterpoints: (1) imagine what his numbers would look like if he were in Williamsport or Lakewood, which is where he’s “supposed to be” age-wise; and (2) his numbers are better than they look, and in fact are remarkably similar to Carlos Carrasco’s at the same age. Witness…
CC, Age 19 (A): 2.26 ERA — 8.98 K/9 — 3.67 BB/9 — 3.09 FIP
EG, Age 19 (A): 4.12 ERA — 6.57 K/9 — 2.53 BB/9 — 3.34 FIP
CC, Age 20 (A+): 2.84 ERA — 6.85 K/9 — 2.84 BB/9 — 4.38 FIP
EG, Age 20 (A+): 3.97 ERA — 7.94 K/9 — 2.27 BB/9 — 3.57 FIP
CC, Age 20 (AA): 4.86 ERA — 6.27 K/9 — 5.89 BB/9 — 5.65 FIP
EG, Age 20 (AA): 8.22 ERA — 5.28 K/9 — 4.50 BB/9 — 5.82 FIP
Garcia has better command, but a bit less in the way of swing-and-miss stuff. But aside from that, the only real difference between the two is that Garcia’s had some bad luck with his ERA over the past few years; their FIPs are very comparable.
I’m not, of course, suggesting that Garcia is as good a prospect as Carrasco; the scouting reports certainly don’t indicate that. But I think it’s inaccurate to say that there’s nothing in his numbers that indicates an ability to develop into a major league starter.
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Andy Tracy in the news today!!
http://www.mcall.com/sports/all-phils1217-cn,0,1958983.story
Phillies invite 10, including 2 ex-IronPigs, to spring training
4:00 PM EST, December 17, 2008
Ten players, including two Lehigh Valley IronPigs’ regulars last year, have been invited to Phillies spring training in Clearwater, Fla., next year as nonroster invitees, the Phillies announced this afternoon.
The two former IronPigs are infielder Mike Cervenak and Andy Tracy, who both also played a bit for the Phillies last year.
In addition, two former IronPigs, outfielders Mike Spidale and Rich Thompson, have been signed to minor league contracts by the Phillies.
The nonroster Phillies invitees:
— Mike Cervenak, 3B/1B — Cervenak, 32, played for triple-A Lehigh Valley this past season where he finished fifth in the International League in batting average (.311) and tied for seventh in doubles (30). On the year, he hit 10 home runs, recorded 66 RBI and was named to the IL All-Star team. Cervenak also made his Major League debut in 2008 with the Phillies, hitting .154 (2-13) in 10 games, mostly as a pinch-hitter.
— Andy Tracy, 1B — Last season, Tracy, 35, played for the IronPigs, where he hit .288 with 22 home runs and 85 RBI in 124 games. He led all IL first basemen in fielding percentage (.997), finished second in the league in doubles (34) and tied for fifth in RBI. Tracy also made four pinch-hit appearances (0-2, RBI) for the Phillies in 2008.
— Dave Borkowski, RHP — Borkowski, 31, split last season between the Houston Astros and triple-A Round Rock. In his 26 appearances with Houston, he was 0-2 with a 7.50 ERA, while with Round Rock he posted a 2-2 record with two saves and a 2.43 ERA in 27 games (1 start). Borkowski has appeared in 181 Major League games, going 13-20 with a 5.87 ERA between Detroit (1999-2001), Baltimore (2004) and Houston (2006-08).
— Ozzie Chavez, SS — Chavez, 25, combined to hit .232 (63-271) with four home runs, 33 RBI and 23 runs scored in 94 games between triple-A Nashville and double-A Huntsville in the Milwaukee organization. For his career, Chavez is hitting .250 with 22 home runs and 297 RBI in 889 games. He is currently playing for Azucareros del Este in the Dominican Winter League.
— J.J. Furmaniak, INF/OF — Furmaniak, 29, who was originally selected by San Diego in the 22nd round of the 2000 draft, did not play last season. He has appeared in 29 career Major League games between Pittsburgh (2005) and Oakland (2007) and is hitting .186 (8-43) with two RBI. For his minor league career, he is hitting .270 with 84 home runs and 408 RBI in 889 games.
— Mike Koplove, RHP — Last season with triple-A Las Vegas, Koplove, a Philadelphia native, went 2-1 with nine saves and a 3.46 ERA in 41 games. Over his seven Major League seasons, Koplove, 32, has posted a 15-7 record with a 3.82 ERA in 222 games for Arizona (2001-06) and Cleveland (2007).
— Justin Lehr, RHP — Lehr, 31, spent last season with triple-A Louisville, where he went 6-2 with a 2.10 ERA in 16 games (8 starts). He is currently pitching for Yaquis de Obregon in the Mexican Winter League. Lehr has pitched in 66 Major League games, posting a 4-3 record with a 5.31 ERA between Oakland (2004) and Milwaukee (2005-06).
— Blaine Neal, RHP — Neal, 30, finished tied for second in the IL in saves (26) while pitching for triple-A Toledo in 2008. Overall, he went 1-0 with a 1.21 ERA in 38 appearances and began the season converting his first 17 save opportunities. The native of Marlton, N.J., has appeared in 133 Major League games, all in relief, going 5-4 with a 5.08 ERA between Florida (2001-03), San Diego (2004), Boston (2005) and Colorado (2005).
— Terry Tiffee, 3B — Tiffee, 29, spent last season with triple-A Las Vegas, where he led the Pacific Coast League in batting average (.378), finished third in doubles (39), fourth in on-base percentage (.416), eighth in hits (148) and 10th in slugging percentage (.561). Tiffee also appeared with the Dodgers in 2008, playing in six games, mostly as a pinch-hitter. He is currently playing for Venados de Mazatlan in the Mexican Winter League.
— Chris Walker, OF — Walker, 28, hit .257 with one home run and 27 RBI in 78 games for triple-A Salt Lake this past season. Originally selected by the Cubs in the sixth round of the 2002 draft, Walker is hitting .270 with 16 home runs and 217 RBI in 685 career minor league games. He is currently playing for Naranjeros de Hermosillo in the Mexican Winter League.
— The following players were signed as minor league free agents: right-handers Yorman Bazardo, Yoel Hernandez and Justin Pope, left-handers Jason Mackintosh and Joshua Shortslef, first baseman/outfielder Brian Stavisky and outfielders Casey Craig, Kevin Mahar, Wilkin Ruan, Mike Spidale and Rich Thompson. Thompson hit. 264 with 25 stolen bases in 97 games for the IronPigs last season, while Spidale hit .176 in 12 games with the IronPigs.
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PF: I buy the argument that garcia is a decent prospect and has been promoted aggressively. BTW, I would ask why that is so, since Phils are so conservative with other guys and want them to dominate their level so they develop confidedcne and an expectation of superior performance.
But at this point, I can’t see ranking Garcia above Bastardo or Naylor, both of whom have nbetter stats. Of course, I have not seen their stuff, composure, control, command, etc. and those are important evaluation factors.
Anyway, I would rank them Bastardo, Naylor, Garcia, Knapp, with any one of them having a chance to leapfrog the others, especially Knap. You can’t teach 97 mph with adequate enough control to dominate GCL hitters.
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PhillyFriar. Nice analysis, Edgar is a nice guy to have and you have to think at this point he’s very underrated by pretty much everyone. I think at the very, very least at this point he’s a good 7th inning arm, which we all know is extremeley useful.
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Of course, I have not seen their stuff, composure, control, command, etc. and those are important evaluation factors.
That’s the fly in the ointment for most of us here, myself included. We only know what we read.
That being said, I wanted to explain why I have Garcia above Bastardo and Naylor. With regard to Bastardo — not to rehash the old debate, but I’m hard-pressed to see him as anything but a bullpen guy. The high walk rate, high fly ball rate, and struggles against RHB all point to that. Now I don’t doubt that he could make one helluva LOOGY — he’s held lefties to a .156 BAA in his 3-year MiLB career — but because of his ceiling, I can’t justify putting him above Garcia, Naylor, Knapp, or Worley at this point.
As for Naylor… if he hadn’t struggled so mightily at Clearwater, I’d have put him ahead of Garcia. His stuff might even be a touch better, but he’ll be 23 next year in A+, and even though he’s Australian (and thus behind a bit on the developmental curve), he’ll need to really come out firing to improve his prospect status. Still, there’s enough upside here for me to vote for him next, which is what I plan on doing as soon as Garcia makes the list.
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garcia.
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PF: Your view and many others here are pretty reasonable and I am only seeing fine shades of differences in opinion, which, in the longer run, will likely not mean much. We should rank in groups of 3 or 5.
Knapp could be a bust or throw 100 mph in a couple years with a very good second pitch and be the next Randy Johnson. Who knows? Or he couldbe a 1-trick pony and disappear.
Naylor and Garcia could be valuable contributors or disappear.
Batsardo could be a LOOGY or the next Randy Wolf.
But IMO, Bastardo is the only one a lock to pitch in majors, given health. And he has a chance to be avg to avg+
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Sampson vs Knapp:
From what I’ve heard, Knapp was lighting up radar guns in the high 90s. When I saw Sampson pitch this year, he was consistently in the high 80s. Plus Sampson doesn’t miss too many bats and gave up a fair amount of hits (1.51 whip) while Knapp struck out better than a batter/inning and had a lower whip
That being said, I still think Sampson will be a very good pitcher. It’s just that when I ranked guys, I factor ceiling pretty heavily into it.
– Jeff
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I’ve got to break the stats down farther, in response to Diamond’s comment that Naylor has better stats than Garcia. Since they both logged significant innings at CLW this season, the comparison is very straightforward:
Age: Garcia — started season 19 yrs 8 mos
Naylor — started season 21 yrs 10 months
ADVANTAGE – Garcia
Record: Garcia — 8 – 2
Naylor — 3 – 7
ADVANTAGE – Garcia
ERA: Garcia — 3.97
Naylor — 4.85
WHIP: Garcia — 1.26
Naylor — 1.50
ADVANTAGE – Garcia
OBA: Garcia — .267
Naylor — .282
ADVANTAGE – Garcia
HR: Garcia — 7 in 79 IP
Naylor — 8 in 78 IP
ADVANTAGE – Garcia
K/9: Garcia – 7.94
Naylor – 6.81
ADVANTAGE – Garcia
BB/9: Garcia – 2.27
Naylor – 3.58
ADVANTAGE – Garcia
So, Garcia is better than Naylor in all the stats, some by a fairly large margin, at a younger age on the same team. What are these stats that you think makes Naylor better?
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Again, can someone please explain to me why Knapp has this enormous ceiling? This guy throws one pitch with a funky delivery really hard. I do not get it. There should be more to potential than being able to throw a super fast fastball. So basically, in summation, any person on earth who can throw a 96+ mph fastball has the ceiling of a number one pitcher? Sure, I guess, if that same person also magically develops two plus breaking pitches. But, by that logic, we can hope Carrasco magically develops 3 plus pitches and a plus-plus changeup, which would be just as good. I just do not get it, and no one has explained it to me yet, which leads me to believe it was once a single incorrect thought that has snowballed into huge proportions. Again, if anyone cares to explain where all of this potential is, I would love to hear it.
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Kyle Farnsworth throws really hard too.
On Carrasco, he doesn’t need 3 plus plus pitches to be a good MLB starter…his FB and change will do just fine…even if his curve is more of a show me pitch right now.
Out of curiosity, does Carrasco throw anything other than FB, Change and Curve? I’d feel better about him if he at least had a 4th pitch.
Knapp is considered to have a high ceiling if only because its easier to teach a hard thrower control than teach a control guy to throw hard. He’s years away at best though
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Neduol Caz – in a word, “yes”. if you have an 18 year old that is 6-5, 225-pounds and consistently throws in the mid-90s and reaches high 90s, then he is a high ceiling pitcher. it is that simple.
the only way i can explain it is there is an old saying in basketball…you can’t teach height. for football….you can’t teach speed. well with baseball pitchers…you can’t teach arm speed. the good lord reached down and turned Jason Knapp’s right arm into a flame thrower. with that type of arm velocity other pitches will develop. The reason there is such an emphasis on velo for young pitchers is:
1. the margin of error is greater for a pitcher that throws 95 vs. one that throws 89/90. that split second difference is the difference between a foul tip and a lined double to the gap.
2. the only difference between pitches is how you grip the ball. i over-simplify of course. you have to learn what the grip is and what the ball will do when you use that grip and then how to control it. but the arm speed is the key. especially if he learns a change.
give me an 18 year old with that type of velo vs. one with less arm speed and more control any day of the week. of course, you can have extremes, like moyer or maddux that are pure control pitchers. but a higher percentage of top pitchers throw hard.
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Yeah you can’t really teach arm strength. Lots of flame throwers die out before they even get to AA, just like lots of command/control guys never get past AAA. Thats what makes this game so difficult
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I used these career stats from minorleaguesplits.com:
Naylor: 1.21 WHIP, 274 Ks in 297 IP, .248 BAA, 88 BB
Garcia: 1.30 WHIP, 286 Ks in 390 IP, .269 BAA, 106 BB
Naylor has better WHIP, BAA and K/9. Pretty simple. I don’t get into isolating seasons. Might have value, but I don’t have the time to eliminate extraneous factors, such as injury, developmental factors, etc., so I go with the larger data set available. Teach me what value isolating that season has and I will listen. Byond the obvios that it’s the same level of competition. It’s still a smaller sample and injury, coaching or other factors could come into it. That’s why I take a longer view.
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that is exactly right. with high risk = high reward. you want to get a bunch of high ceiling guys in your system and hope 1 or 2 pan out. that being said, knapp’s size really helps him here. much more so than a guy like drabek who also throws hard but i fear will have injury problems his entire career (God forbid).
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@ allentown: you’re being a bit unfair using just Clearwater as the comparison, and I think you intuitively know that. Naylor has posted better numbers than Garcia at every previous stop — better K/9, GB%, etc. — and that certainly has to be factored in. All that being said, I still went with Garcia; I just don’t think it’s as lopsided as you make it out to be.
@ Neduol Caz: I understand your point, but here’s the counterpoint — Knapp had good numbers across the board in his debut. I know it’s the GCL, but he posted a 2.57 FIP, a 10.91 K/9, and a 3.45 BB/9. His GB% wasn’t the greatest (38.8%), but for a strikeout pitcher, that’s okay. And perhaps most importantly — even in a small sample size, he held LHB to a .167 BAA. Even in the GCL, lefthanded hitters would hit higher than that against a guy that only has one pitch. I don’t buy that his ceiling is that of a #1 until he tears through full season ball, but he’s certainly got promise.
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So will Knapp start at Williamsport next year? If so, I look forward to seeing him when the Crosscutters come to town.
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Yorman Bazardo is an interesting pickup. He was the Tigers’ #5 prospect going into last season. He got lit up in AAA of course. If he converts to the bullpen as he should, he could become a useful MLB player. Might deserve a slot in the 20-30 range.
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Jean Machi who played for Phillies GCL team half a dozen years ago had a 98 mph fastball. Never got out of short season ball with Phillies, but I did see him in Reading for the Blue Jays this summer. Still only 26, but not doing so well. Fastball speed isn’t everything, good hitters can hit a 100 mph fastball. Control, changing speeds, a breaking ball are the killers. Knapp seems like a very good prospect, but the fastball speed isn’t nearly enough to get the job done.
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Phillyfriar —
No, that isn’t true and I don’t know where that impression comes from. By the way, at the lower level stops the age gap between Garcia and Naylor was even larger, because Garcia hit them a year earlier.
GCL: Garcia (2005) – 3.56 ERA, .284 oba, 13BB/42 K in 55 IP
Naylor (2006) – 4.66 ERA, .297 oba, 9BB/22K in 36 IP
Stat advantage to Garcia across the board, 3 years younger
The Williamsport/Batavia numbers:
Garcia (2006) – 2.98 ERA, .243 oba, 10 BB/46K in 62 IP
Naylor (2007) – 3.28 ERA, .228 oba, 28 BB/97K in 93 IP
Split on stats, but again Garcia 3+ years younger
Low full-season A (Naylor never at this level)
Garcia (2007) – 1.87 ERA, .189 oba, 42 BB/98K in 91 IP
So, in summary I think you are holding Garcia’s speed through the organization and the fact that he put up bad numbers at Reading against him. But at every level that Naylor and Garcia have both pitched at, Garcia has been at least 2 years younger and has done at least as well.
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Sampson velocity is in the high 80’s that to me is not a good sign. not many right hand pitchers who can’t throw in the low 90 become anything to my knowledge.
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Goldstein had him at 91-93 hitting 95 this summer. Check it out in one of the links on the left, the one that talks about him and Steady Freddy.
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Another player not exactly lighting up the stat sheet for the Blue Claws is 19-year-old right-hander Julian Sampson. A 12th-round pick last year who got third-round money, Sampson has a 4.98 ERA in 16 starts with just 41 strikeouts in 81 1/3 innings, but a scout who saw him found him the most memorable arm on the staff. “There’s just a lot to like there—he’s athletic, powerful, and has really nice arm action,” recalled the scout. “I saw effortless 91-93 mph velocity that touched 95, an above-average breaking ball, and an interesting kind of palmball as a change.” So why the poor numbers with that kind of stuff? The scout offered a couple of theories. “His command is below average, so he’s currently centering the ball, and there’s no deception in his delivery, so batters get a good long look at it.
There you go.
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Sampson did well to make it to Lakewood this season. By rights, he should have been at Williamsport. A year out of HS, from a cold-weather state. I’ll take the season he had. He’s among our top 20 prospects.
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From Aaron Fitt’s Chat today over at ESPN.
Drew (Philly): Hi Aaron, how do you carlos carrasco panning out? number 2 or 3 starter?
Aaron Fitt: Great stuff, but the makeup and feel give me pause. I’ll say erratic No. 3, capable of being brilliant at times, but not consistently.
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@ allentown: we both agree that Garcia is a touch better prospect than Naylor; the difference is, I just think it’s very close between the two.
Two quick retorts: (1) the age difference is mitigated a bit by the fact that Naylor is Australian, and Aussie prospects generally come in very, very raw; (2) Naylor’s stuff has been more swing-and-miss (8.29 K/9 v. Garcia’s 6.59 K/9), which is huge.
Finally, I think you were misquoting the Lakewood stats, which certainly cut in Naylor’s favor. Using the categories you chose…
Low full-season A (Lakewood)
Naylor (2008) — 2.99 ERA, .219 BAA, 21 BB/97 K in 87.1 IP
Garcia (2007) — 4.12 ERA, .271 BAA, 32 BB/83 K in 113.2 IP
I think Garcia still comes out on top on balance, but it’s very, very close in my book.
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Naylor got hit hard once he got to the level appropriate for his age. A 22 year old in Hi A has to do better than a K/BB ratio of 59/31 in 78 innings to be considered any kind of a prospect.
Garcia hasn’t been great, but at least he’s been a level ahead of most guys his age. I have to admit it’s a little worrying that Garcia is from the D.R., where you can’t always trust the birth records. Do the Phils know/suspect something we don’t here, hence their unusual willingness to promote more quickly than his age/performance would warrant? If he’s a year or two older than his listed age, then his major plus goes out the window.
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DiamondDaily:
In response to you wondering why the Phillies are being so aggressive with Garcia as compared to their usual cautious approach.
IMO, they are moving Garcia aggressively because of what his development needs are. If he is a guy who already knows how to set-up hitters and pitch off of the plate, there is nothing for him to learn by outsmarting young hitters at the lower levels.
At the AA level, he is forced to face older, more patient hitters who better understand the strike-zone and he will have to learn how to get outs in the strikezone.
PhillyFriar,
Don’t take my argument about Garcia to mean that I don’t think he is a prospect, just that I don’t think he rates above a few others out there like Bastardo/Savery/Knapp. I just think that Garcia is a guy with average abilities who knew how to out think players at lower levels but will have problems as he faces more experienced hitters at higher levels in the minors.
Note: I’m not as high on Naylor as others and would rate Garcia above him.
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Phillyfriar —
Yes, I somehow flipped the Bastardo and Garcia Lakewood stats.
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Pat – I think with the advent of stricter border controls in this country fake birth records are on the decline. Even established guys like Tejada have been forced to ‘fess up to their real ages.
He still could have slipped through though. If he’s 22 and not 20 I’d have him at the back of the 20’s, not the back of the single digits.
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3up: Thanks for the perspective on Garcia. That’s a pretty specific statement about Garcia’s abilities. Do you know his craftiness from obeservation, a scouting report, or is it your own speculation. Just curious and want to know how to filter what you said.
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Well n my MiLB career stats above show Naylor with an edge. But the age factor makes it more even and maybe in favor of Garcia. However, the Australian lack of experience argument makes it really close between those two. You can make a reasonable argument either way. So I still have Bastardo as our top remaining pitching prospect, Naylor/Garcia next and maybe Knapp/Sampson after that. Then you have last year’s big haul of other pitchers, Stues, Cisco, etc. etc. Good argument to have.
AMARO: SPEND THE MONEY TO GO OVER SLOT! MAKE UP FOR THE LACK OF A FIRST ROUNDER. KEEP THE DEVELOPMENT ENGINE HUMMING. OR I WILL DROP CHIGGERS OVER YOUR HOUSE!!!!!!!!!
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Over the next 10 years, I want heart-breaking losses of real talent in the Rule 5. That means we have more talent than we can protect–as it should be. That’s the only way to keep a steady supply of MLB ready rookies and eliminate the need to go after washed up veterans to fill injury holes.
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to allentown – no one said only having a fastball is enough. the point is arm velocity is a tool that can be used to make all pitches more effective. it is not a guarantee of success. but to the other people’s points, he clearly knows how to pitch as he had very good stats in rookie ball. and there have been others that throw hard whom haven’t had those stats.
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Diamond Derby —
The heartbreaking talent losses in Rule 5 may be largely a thing of the past, since the new players’ contract extended the length of team control prior to Rule 5 by a full season. So, all teams are finding it a lot easier to preserve their talent. Basically, a whole additional draft year doesn’t need to be protected.
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Diamond,
Just speculating based on what I see in his numbers (walk rate, hits allowed, etc.) and from reading various scouting reports. I also have some experience pitching against former Minor League players and have found that those who didn’t advance past A-ball usually had problems identifying the strike zone.
Seems to be the most logical reason the organization pushed him so quickly through the organization even though his numbers are pedestrian. Especially since their history with prospects shows them to be typically slow to promote, even with guys who are overperforming their level.
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Cool, 3up. Would you have been pitching in area semi-pro leagues? That’s where you would find some ex-minor leaguers.
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Did not know that. Thanks. The point stands that last year gave us a taste of what having a few more higher ceiling guys can do for a system and our excitement as fans. I think you need a surplus, like the Angels or Red Sox, to be a perrenial World Series contender. And it means so much more to see your home grown guys do the work, much like Utley, Howard, Rollins, Hamels today. Would be nice to keep that pipeline going and have enough depth so that many of our second-tier players come from our system too. That is both efficacious and fun for us.
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Diamond,
Yes I played in various adult leagues around the south-central PA area for 20+ years. A couple of those years on a semi-pro basis traveling around playing in tournaments but most of the time it was just in what is generally referred to as “twilight” or “beer” leagues. Did have the opportunity to play with and against a lot of good ball players over that time.
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Not to say that others havn’t seen Sampson throw in the high 80’s, but I saw him twice last summer- early in the season he was hitting 96-97 mph a few times, but it unraveled his command trying to throw so hard. So he dialed it back- and in later starts was more 90-92mph. but true enough, he only flashes an average curveball at this point, and all his secondary needs help. but the arm and delivery suggest more power to come.
As for Knapp- his velocity is starting to take on some folklore- reports have had him 92-94, maxing at 96-97 mph. That isn’t ‘consistently mid-90’s’ in my book. Descriptions of his delivery are getting convoluted as well- its not that its ‘funky’ or in any way odd- its just that its a little rigid and not particularly smooth (at least in highschool).
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Just wanted to say kudos to everyone who’s been chatting on this thread; it’s one of the better discussions I’ve been a part of here. I’m sure James is chomping at the bit to wade into some reasoned debate like this, but since he doesn’t want influence our votes, we’ll have to wait just a bit to hear his take.
Once again… nice work, people.
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3up: I imagine you do get some talented guys in the beer leagues. Maybe the Chris Costes of the world who did not stick it out in the minors and still like playing for fun–and other types, I’m sure. I remember, as a kid, watching my dad playing in twilight leagues in Langhorne. PA. That was in the ’50s. My dad actually tried out in one of the camps the Phils hold, and got a form letter from Mayo Smith, Phils manager, saying that he would not be selected, but send your sons when they are ready. 50 years later, and I am still not ready. Hey, I vote for me as #11 prospect !!!!!!!!!
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Hey, get PP to throw your name out there and I’ll slip you a vote 🙂
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Yeah I don’t think it would be fair if I started to add my thoughts on these posts. I want the Reader Top 30 to be completely driven by everyone but me.
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My memory was that Knapp’s delivery WAS “funky.” As I recall, he was pitching off of a fairly stiff front leg in high school, something that could lead to injuries in the future. That flaw is present in the scouting video PP posted with his draft recap…I don’t know whether anyone can speak to the Phils fixing that or not.
Could be something to watch down the road.
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