Reader Top 30; #10

2009 Reader Top 30

I hope everyone got all of the trade/free agent signings talk out of their system, so lets get back to discussing prospects. Joe Savery took home the #9 spot, edging out Zach Collier and Jason Knapp. I’ll have more on Savery sometime later this week. For now though, we’ll round out the top 10 in the voting, which should be a close call. One reminder. If you choose to write in a vote, please type in your choice before hitting the submit vote button, and after you vote, please be kind enough to share who you voted for in the comments, since other readers can’t see the “other” write-ins. More below the fold…

I’ll try and keep an updated list of the write in votes below the next poll, so check back periodically if you’re interested. It also appears that I can’t list more than 7 entries in one poll, so the status quo from here on out will be this. The 7 highest vote totals from the previous poll will be added to the new poll. This includes write-ins that receive multiple votes. Seems easy enough.

01. Carlos Carrasco, RHP
02. Lou Marson, C
03. Jason Donald, SS
04. Kyle Drabek, RHP
05. Michael Taylor, OF
06. Dominic Brown, OF
07. JA Happ, LHP
08. Travis D’Arnaud, C
09. Joe Savery, LHP
10.

81 thoughts on “Reader Top 30; #10”

  1. Cisco for me..

    BTW Drew Naylor had a better outing in Aussie recently.. With limited game time back in Aussie he is starting to improve.
    Game story and pic of Drew Pitching for RAMS.
    http://www.baseballvictoria.com.au/?Page=49196
    .. next games for him are in Perth .

    Harman is best Phuturephillies Aussie performer so far here with time at both SS and 2B. Up high in most Batting categories so far and fielding very well.
    Brad should be a certainty for the Aussie WBC team in Mexico.

    I have word that Joel Naughton will be traveling from Phillies 40 Man ST to Mexico City in early march so it sounds like he will be one of the Aussie WBC Catchers for sure.

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  2. I think bastardo has to be the guy, didn’t lose a game last year with fantastic era and opponent avg. this year he put up pretty good numbers at reading even though he got hurt, his era and opp. avg was pretty good, he can dominate when hes on when he had his no hitter so i think he has the stuff to make an impact in the majors

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  3. I will be back on the Cisco thing soon but off his none Reading
    performances especially this winter proving he is ok post
    Forbes/Filer I am going with Bastardo

    BTW Have the minor league coaching staffs been named yet
    I am interested especially with Huppert(a winner and good
    keeper of young pitchers

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  6. Give the nod to Bastardo at this spot. He appeared to be on the fasttrack until injuries this year put on the brakes. Hopefully a healthy 2009 will get him back on pace.

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  7. Tough one… Went with Collier, the video and grade of his swing PP had up, plus his GCL performance, and plate discipline sold me. Garret Anderson 2.0? I’ll take that anyday.

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  8. Went with Mayberry and here’s why:

    He was a top flight talent out of Stanford
    UC says he LOVES his bat and can’t wait to work for him.
    UC has a great track record with big sluggers (Howard, Thome, etc) and their swings

    I know its controversial but at this point (#10 and higher) its just my gut feel and a reading of the scouting reports on the guy.

    Fair enough? 🙂

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  9. I voted for Mayberry again. I’m not sure where he belongs. I tried to rate where Golson would go. I think Mayberry would be at least in his slot. After this vote, I’ll concede to going after younger prospects.

    I would rate Berry higher than Collier because I think they are both a 4th or 5th OF. Berry is much closer to the Phils than Collier. Where do you put Hewitt? He certainly has a higher potential of making an impact but a lower probability. I think there are a number of pitchers who should be in the next few slots. Bastardo is one. Carpenter finished the year better than he started. Escalona will be in Philly before most other pitchers. I know we should value relievers (ex. closers) far lower than starters, but I think the Mets would disagree with that. Naylor, Cisco, Simpson, Knapp, Stutes and Cloyd (in no paerticular order) are on my short list. Schwimer and Rosenberg have the potential to move quickly as relievers.

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  10. I say it’s about upside on this. I vote Zach Collier. Starting to think of Freddy Galvis soon, then work in some fuzz-faced neophyte pitchers and Hewitt.

    Note: Mr. No Wheels–once again you state that P.J. Forbes was fired. I assumed this was the case for awhile, but, upon further review , I have found no confirmation on this on the web. In fact, a contra-indication would be that Forbes is still listed on the Reading roster, while Razor Shines, who left to be a 3rd base coach in MLB, is no longer listed on the Clearwater roster. Would you elaborate?

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  11. I believe Collier’s ceiling is considered to be as a Garret Anderson type guy…or am I confusing him with someone else? I thought that was the comparison they made for him though.

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  12. edgar garcia.

    20 years old in AA and has held his own at every level. all while being one of the youngest players at each level.

    has shown more abillity and been in the system longer than anyone else left in the rankings

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  13. Vance Worley

    Why no love for Worley? He put up very good numbers in Lakewood at a younger age than Stutes and Cisco. He also has the pedigree of being taken in the 3rd round. Knapp and Collier both have bigger upsides, so I don’t have a problem with either of them taking this spot, but Worley needs to get on the board.

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  14. got to be bastardo.

    look, i love collier and knapp. knapp in particular. i think that the has ace written all over him. but you have to go with bastardo at this point. assuming he is over the injury, which seems safe since he is pitching now. this guy has very good numbers at the upper levels and was voted to the world team on the futures game. he has consistently demonstrated an ability to make hitters miss. obviously the key to pitching. he may not have a 94 mph fastball, but this guy gets outs. he has continued to demonstrate this in winter ball. collier and knapp just finished rookie ball. too much projection over results to pick them now.

    but i think that bastardo is going to be one of those guys that is consistently under rated until he gets into the pros.

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  16. I believe when I wrote up my original list a month or so ago, I had Collier at 10, so I’m going with that

    – Jeff

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  19. Hmm, proximity and lower risk might bias me toward Bastardo, but his injury re-introduces some of the risk. And he projects as a decent middle reliever or sometimes setup guy, at best Ryan Madson light.

    So I will go with youth and projection. Worley, Collier and Knapp seem the most premium. Very close vetween Knapp and Collier.

    Okay, Knapp it is. He seems to project the highest impact.

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  20. Collier for me. I know it’s speculative, but the scouting reports are really good, the plate discipline seems to be for real, and I have a hunch that he’ll start at Lakewood and open some eyes next summer. Bellman, Collier projects as far more than a 4th OF — more like a solid RF with a .300/.380/.480 line and 20 HR power.

    For me, that puts Collier ahead of guys like Mayberry — a 25 year old with just one plus tool and a career MiLB OBP of .330 — and Bastardo — an undersized lefty with a propensity for surrendering walks (4.30 BB/9), fly balls (53.9%), and HR (14 in 72.0 IP v. RHB). They look more like a platoon bat and a bullpen piece to me, while Collier profiles as a regular when all is said and done.

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  22. Eaglescap: I have a few names in the queue before Worley, but I agree with you that he’s probably going to go too low. As you said, he was just 20 last year when he tore through Williamsport and Lakewood with very good peripherals (7.78 K/9, 1.03 BB/9, 57.8% GB). If Julian Sampson put up those numbers at Age 20 next year, readers here would go into a frenzy — so why is Worley often overlooked?

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  24. Didn’t Worley have some low ceiling projections after the draft? That’s the only reason I could think of. I’m not 100% sure though.

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  25. Excellent points on Worley. I’ve moved him up on my board, but still not ahead of Edgar Garcia (whom I voted for in this spot). I just don’t know much about him because nobody talks about anything other than Cisco’s insane stats. Either way, I still have a bunch of guys (Knapp, Collier, Bastardo, Valle) ahead of both Cisco and Worley. Something about Cisco doesn’t excite me. I hope I’m wrong though.

    I’m a little curious as to why Valle is not getting more of a mention. Is he any relation to Dave Valle, the longtime Mariners catcher?

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  26. I voted Mayberry for the same reasons as NEPP. Maybe it’s denial on Amaro — Golson would certainly be in the conversation here, and I want to hope Ruben won’t be terrible.

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  28. honestly…i am starting to see why outsiders say that our farm is weak. i mean, the top 2 leaders for our #10 overall prospect are 18 year olds that haven’t played a full season yet. there is just no depth at the top of our system. a few good prospects – brown, taylor, CC, Lou, Donald. but it gets thin quickly

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  30. Who was the last position player to come out of our farm system? Ruiz?

    That’s why we’re considered thin. Donald and Marson should help that trend though…assuming neither is traded. Most of our position guys are now mature major leaguers and have been for at least a few years.

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  31. I’m a big Worley/Stutes fan, but I still need a few names off the board before I vote for them. They’re probably around 15-20 range for me.

    Went Collier again.

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  32. Big Julian Sampson for me. He has a chance to be very special. So does Knapp, but Sampson is one year ahead. Where do we put Scott Matheison on this list? If he’s healthy….

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  33. Going with Collier here on potential. I have enough doubts about Garcia’s uneven performance to push him down a little. Knapp is the other I would consider here. The next few polls should probably start including Hewitt and Valle. Hewitt might have a tough time making the top 30 from this board, though he is probably in the 15-20 range on tools alone.

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  34. Agreed on the ATrain and Valle. This is a big year for Sampson, he needs to start refining his command and racking up the K’s.

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  36. I went with Collier for the upside, but looking over some stats, I think I’ve underrated Edgar Garcia so far, and he’ll get my next vote if he’s still on the board. He really struggled at Reading, but he was one of the youngest players in the league, and at 20 has plenty of development time left.

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  37. Judging by the votes I’m going to be saying ‘Garcia’ for a while. I’ll have to punch up some comparisons between him and Tony Bastard before the next round of voting.

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  39. I voted for Knapp based on the talent and Rookie League results, but I freely admit it’s pretty much all guessing for me from here on in.

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  40. I gave Garcia the nod for the same reasons Jamie stated above. It wasn’t an easy choice between Garcia and Naylor, though.

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  41. Xfactor: in thinking ahead to the next few votes, I was wrestling with that same Garcia v. Naylor question. Provided Collier holds on to win at #10 here, I’ll be voting for Garcia at #11, and I’ll explain my reasoning then.

    Dajafi: guessing from here on out? You’d best move along then… we all know exactly what we’re talking about, and you’ll be bringing down the level of discourse. 😉

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  42. Went Garcia. It says a lot about what the organization thinks of him that they moved him to AA at 20 years old, and the fact that he’s mostly done well everywhere he’s been. Even though he struggled in Reading, he’s got a chance to improve himself for next year and he’ll still be young for that league.

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  43. So far there has not been a lot players put on the list for upside, so I got to take a chance with Collier and put him here. He is an unbelievable talent with good discipline and mechanics.

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  45. Interesting that Ruben signed Moyer for 2 more years. Guess he feels Drabek, our No. 4 prospect, and new No. 9 prospect, Savery, won’t be ready until 2011. They will lose control of Blanton and Moyer’s new contract will be up after 2010. Project that our No. 1 prospect Carrasco will take over for Myers in 2010 after Brett’s contract is up after next year. Project that our No.7 prospect Happ out pitches Kendrick etc. in ST and takes over the 5th spot in the rotation for 09.

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  46. Do Venezuelan stats matter? Because Carrasco looks like a monster down there. Second lowest ERA of any starter. I don’t really know how competitive that league is though.

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  47. Why so much faith in Garcia. Was what was posted that his velocity is about88 not true, and do people really think Savery is a top end starter. Not by what he has shown so far. But I am not a scout.

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  48. MM, I haven’t heard much about Garcia’s velocity, but promoting him to AA at age 20 tells me that the Phillies like something about him. And since he’s so young, he’s got another 3-4 years of time to gain experience in the high minors before its really make or break time for him.

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  49. I went with Collier, but it does start to get really hazy at this point. Either you have guys with an abundance of talent/great numbers very low down the system (Collier, Knapp, Cisco, Worley) or guys higher up who have run into difficulties (Garcia, Naylor). Theres also the guys with big holes in their game to consider (Galvis/Mattair).

    I would slot Garcia just behind Knapp at 12 or so. You have to be something to get to AA at 20, I think.

    There is also the question of what on earth to do with Heitor Correa?? He fell off the face of the planet this season, but if he’s still in the system he is a considerable talent.

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  51. Governator: what you’ve highlighted, i.e. the divide between the lower level prospects and the upper level prospects with issues, is a good way of looking at things. And it lends credence to the point that this part of the list will be shaped by what things the readers here value (Knapp’s ceiling? Naylor’s track record? etc.).

    And I don’t know about anyone else, but I’m leaving guys like Correa, Zagurski, and Mathieson off the list. Correa because we don’t know if he’ll ever actually be back with the organization; and Zagurski and Mathieson, who are both under the 50 IP requirement and would both merit inclusion on this list based on talent alone, because we don’t really know if they’ll ever regain the health that made them solid prospects.

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  52. Edgar Garcia. 20 at AA, highest in the system with good upside. Guessing about Short Leaguers should come later.

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  53. I went Collier on this one. Why? Heck if I know – hunch, gut feel, go feedback from first year and young. Just positive comments all around about the kid.

    And I am wondering where to put Mayberry as well – he’s a tough read. We’re talking about someone who will be competing for a platoon spot on the big club, but you wonder if he’s “topped out”, and if he has he can be a “nice” player but I don’t think this high on our lists we’re looking for “nice” players.

    And someone commented about comparing him to Golson, and where the poster would have put Golson if he was still here. I popped in to take a look at the Rangers to 10 on BA and he wasn’t there – and then in the chat the commentator was asked about him and said he would have put him in “the 20’s” for the Rangers. So the question is – is the Ranger’s system that much better, or the commentator wasn’t a big fan (which he hinted at).

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  54. Voted Collier again, for the same reasons as last thread.

    Reaching AA at age 20 is no sure sign of future success. Looking from 2001-04, pitchers in the Eastern League at 20 include Brett Myers, Pat Strange, Jorge de la Rosa, Jacobo Sequea, Sean Burnett, Gustavo Mata, Jeremy Johnson, Jose Vargas and Fausto Carmona. Two hits and seven busts. I need to see something beyond age.

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  55. interesting list of 20yo players in AA alan…

    I voted for Collier simply because I am completely unsure of what to do at this point in the list….weighing ceiling vs. production…or age-appropriate @ level vs. someone like Garcia….ugh.

    Collier has a sweet swing, hit the ground running, and in my eyes, does look alot like Anderson-light.

    Mayberry has to fit in here somewhere….as does Knapp, Stutes, Worley, Garcia, Naylor…..

    oy vey!

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  58. How many innings will Carrasco pitch this year. When does the pitchers like him report to spring training. It seems to me that he will have throw a lot this year. or is this not a concern?

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  60. Bastardo. Can’t imagine why he’s not number 9 given his age, level, and performance, including winter league.

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  61. Edgar Garcia continues to impress… Mr T thinks that’s pretty nice.
    Mayberry looks nice too… hmmm
    Knapp throws real hard… Mr T likes that.
    Collier… Mr T needs to see more of that man.

    Mayberry cause he’s carries a big stick and swings real hard. Just like that punk BALBOA!

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  64. Any chance that someone named “Neduol Caz” is a smoking hot twentysomething blonde girl?? If so I’m placing my vote for Knapp for number one for this year AND next year:)

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  66. I voted for Bastardo, but there’s no shortage of good options at number 10. Last year, by the time we got to this point, it was fairly slim pickings. That’s no longer the case and it bodes well for the system.

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  67. After 2 TJ surgeries I don’t think mathieson is concerned about being on any top 30 prospects lists, I think he’s happy just to have a job. At least we know the kid is a hard worker.

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  72. BP’s Top 11 for the Phils is up next. Any guesses on our top 11 and who may be our 4 star prospects?
    I’m guessing Brown, Carrasco, Taylor, Donald, and possibly D’Arnaud and Drabek as 4 star guys, and Marson, Galvis, Drabek, D’Arnaud as definite 3 stars as well as Knapp and Collier, with the 11th man being JA Happ as a 2 or 3.

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  73. It really says something to me that:

    A. we have so many different possibilities and so many players that can be debated belongs in this spot.

    and

    B. The quality of the players we are discussing is so high. A few years ago, these guys would have been the organizations number 4 prospect. Now they may not even make the top 10. And we havent even started guys like Escalona, guys who we fully expect to be a major league player soon and guys with high ceilings like Mathieson cant even make the top 10.

    I know that BA guy said the other day he still sees us as average, but I am thinking we have some studs in our systyem

    I know that Baseb

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  75. I think in general the Phillies system is average. But, average is a whole lot better that lousy, which is what the system has been in the past. The system still has a long way to go until it is in the top 5-10 of the majors though. Last year’s draft was a huge step in the right direction, but until the fruits of that draft start producing at AA and above, the system will stay in the middle of the pack.

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  76. Can someone tell me if there is a site to go on to see how each minor league systems is rated. I would like to know who is in the top portion of the ratings.

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  77. PatBurrell: I don’t see any of our prospects as 4 star. Donald and Carrasco may be 3 star. Galvis might not be 2 star. Just my view.

    4 star = Hamels, Burrell, Utley (can’t miss guys, with a real chance for stardom)

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  78. Well 5 star is the can’t miss guys, 4 is the above average guys. We will see though in a few days. Carrasco and Savery were 4 star guys last year.

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  79. PB: Got it. Thanks. Then your evaluation looks reasonable, although I would keep Galvis lower until he hits for at least a little more avg and obp. He did show a little more life at the plate later in 2008 so I have hopes. A super-fielding SS who can hit .260 with a .330 OBP and the occasional double or triple will have value. If he develops more than that as a hitter, then we have a real asset.

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  80. BP’s Top 11 for the Phils is up next. Any guesses on our top 11 and who may be our 4 star prospects?
    I’m guessing Brown, Carrasco, Taylor, Donald, and possibly D’Arnaud and Drabek as 4 star guys, and Marson, Galvis, Drabek, D’Arnaud as definite 3 stars as well as Knapp and Collier, with the 11th man being JA Happ as a 2 or 3.

    I’m going to do a Q/A with Goldstein again this winter. My guess

    Carrasco, Brown and Taylor = 4 stars
    Collier, Drabek, Donald, D’Arnaud, Knapp and Marson = 3 stars
    Happ, Savery = 2 stars

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  81. Also agreeable, Yeah the only reason I threw Galvis in there and I’m not sure on this but I think KG had Steady Freddy in his just missed boat last year. I read the Q/A’s with him again today he always brings the good stuff.

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