Reader Top 30; #8

2009 Reader Top 30

#7 went to JA Happ, who edged Travis D’Arnaud by 16 votes. As I mentioned 2 days ago, I’ve now changed the voting method, so that it registers votes based on IP address as well as cookies, meaning you can only vote once, and if your IP address is shared with someone else, and that someone else already voted, you won’t be able to vote. Its unlikely this will cause an issue. And just to get this out of the way, if there is any trade talk posted in this post, I’m just going to delete it. Also, one more note on voting. If you write in a vote please post it in the comments of the post so others can see. I’m the only one able to see the answers, so it might be helpful. Thanks.

Check below for more…

The final tally for #7

Happ — 123
D’Arnaud — 107
Savery — 14
Knapp — 13
Mayberry — 10
Collier — 6
Cisco — 1
Naylor — 1 (write in)
Naughton — 1 (write in)

Were now at

01. Carlos Carrasco, RHP
02. Lou Marson, C
03. Jason Donald, SS
04. Kyle Drabek, RHP
05. Michael Taylor, OF
06. Dominic Brown, OF
07. JA Happ, LHP
08.

So, here’s the poll for #8

76 thoughts on “Reader Top 30; #8”

  1. i like d’arnaud at #8, he’s been successful at williamsport and lakewood so far, so he has a long way to go, but i think he will have continued success as he moves up the ranks, unlike naylor who dominated lakewood and probably would be in this discussion if he didn’t get molested in clearwater

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  2. I wouldn’t put too much stake into that kind of criticism PP. Its not like your putting a gun to their head to visit this site. If they don’t like it, then don’t visit it.

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  3. seeing as how i voted for him last time, i say knapp again. first vote for him this round by the way. He just throws so hard and has amazing potential in his arm. 97 mph is hard to pass up.

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  4. I don’t think this site is dead, but I do think it has stopped educating as much since you stopped your commentary. It’s a bit stressful when people disagree, but you were definitely a voice of reason. Right now, and for the last several months really, there is a groupthink element in the comments section from some who I don’t think have a great grasp of prospect value.

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  5. I’ll say this much: If Travis D’Arnaud is our 8th-best prospect, then maybe our system is in better shape than I thought.

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  6. Naughton getting a write-in was interesting but the Phils thought enough of him to put him on the 40 man roster. He has a laser beam for an arm. A lefty hitter who looks like he could hit for average. Interesting the Phils have 5 catchers on the 40 man and D’Arnaud, who isn’t on it, is at least our 8th best prospect. Don’t forget about Valle either. He’ll be on our top-30 somewhere.

    A catcher or two has to go pretty soon.

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  7. I though Naughton getting a write in was funny.

    Travis D’Arnaud is definately better than the #8 prospect, I feel, but this is how it has played out.

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  12. Once again, I vote D’Arnaud. It appears the last round was skewed by a sympathy vote for Happ. Who many took as an affront the very idea he could be “changed up”for a useful MLB player.

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  13. D’Arnaud

    Seth- I agree with you, if the phillies have a prospect of D’Arnaud’s caliber as their number 8 prospect, the phillies farm system has come a long way.

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  14. D’Arnaud. He’s in the top 3 next year and on his way up a lot of Top prospect lists with a good year. Where does everyone think he’s going to start? I say Clearwater.

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  15. I’m going to say John Mayberry. I have high hopes he’ll have a big year in a new organization. Show more power.

    As a Phillies fan, this site and philliesphans.com are as essential as my morning coffee. Great work! Thanks!

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  16. I usually don’t post comments on websites. I’ve been coming to this website for at least two years now, and it has been a great resource for me to learn about Phillies prospects. Phuturephillies please don’t take to heart the comments of a few disgruntled people. There will always be someone there to bash your work regardless of how good it is or how hard you have worked on something, its the nature of things. I believe there are scores of people like me who truly enjoy this website yet remain anonymous to the community. Please understand that your work is appreciated even if you think it goes unnoticed at times.

    Thank You,
    Pick

    P.S. I vote for Zach Collier; Very good tools including baseball instincts in all facets of the game, but not the super tools that lead to taking things for granted a-la Delmon Young. Plus I believe the heart issue he had will give him a reason to prove himself, but at the same time temper him to be thankful for what he has.

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  17. The best thing the Phils did is not put Savery in winter ball.
    I hope with a rest his arm gets stronger and he comes out
    blazing.
    Galen Cisco’s check is late but i want a big push for #10 or 11

    Ps..Some people use the internet to show what jackasses they are. I enjoy this site very much and have learned
    good work PP

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  18. Yeah PP, remember there’s a lot of Mets fans out there trolling our Phillies sites and posting desparaging stuff. Just get rid of their stupid comments so the rest of us don’t have to get worked up about it too.

    Like Will, I also miss your commentary. It was good stuff.

    D’Arnaud gets my vote. It’s interesting to go back and look at last years reader top 30. Look at our #10-30 guys. We’re deeper now than we were then.

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  19. D’Arnaud this pick, Savery for #9 (just doing some early politicking to try and get the ball rolling for Joe)

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  20. Agree there are a lot of knowledgeable posters here to learn from, so I value this site. I come here first and then see what the others are saying.

    I voted for D’Arnaud. I was considering voting for d’armand, but I don’t think he has the same ceiling as D’Arnaud. I think it’s the lower case and comma. 🙂

    I think the first 8 were no brainers. It was simply a matter of which position people put them in and the voting here is roughly correct, if you consider that there really isn’t much difference in risk/ceiling for 1 or 2 positions. But the general top 8 are correct.

    Next we get to the interesting part. 10-20 projectables, so the arguments will be fast and furious, as it should be. That portion of the list is not as cut and dried, obviously.

    I would ask that anyone with knowledge or past obeservation of these guys say as much as possible about them. Any piece of info is useful as a data point, even if you just store it away for future reference.

    So let’s get D’Arnaud elected and then onto the Knapps, Colliers, Saverys, etc.

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  21. Knapp. I would say Happ was a mistake at 8. It does show how deep the system is getting that D’Arnaud, Knapp or Savery will not make the top 10 and all look like legitimate MLB prospects.

    PP – I have been coming to the site for 2 years daily and have posted maybe 4 times total. Don’t let morons get you down. The site is very good and I enjoyed your commentary and agree with some others who would like to hear from you more. Personally I would love your thoughts on the voting thus far. Keep up the good work and thanks for your efforts.

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  22. I may be subject to ‘groupthink’ but the all of the D’Arnaud guys in the past few threads have put him here for me, ahead of Edgar Garcia, whose case I will likely begin making at #9.

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  23. I just clicked other but didn’t see a spot to put him in but for as much as everyone says he is a fluke, but I like Antonio Bastardo. Sorry if I screwed it up. My Bad.

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  24. Morning guys.

    D’Arnoud as the 8th best prospect isn’t proof that the system is better. Our Farm has been producing MVP’s and front end starters and good relievers for years. Hamels, Floyd, Myers, Madson, Condrey, Howard, Utley, Rollins, Rolen plus a lot more decent major leaguers.

    What is going to prove how strong our system is, is when we see guys like Sampson, Mattair, Galvis, Jaramillo, Carpenter, Naylor, Berry, D. Myers in the 11 to 20 range.

    Let’s just look at Jaramillo. This guy is a very solid defensive catcher and if he would hit at Carlos Ruiz’ level in the MLB, it would be a disappointment. The only reason his star has faded is because Marson and D’Arnoud’s stars have outshined his.

    Our Farm has been underrated for years. That may be disappointing for people like us who love following the farm system, but it has been a benefit to the organization as a whole. The Pirates not trading Kris Benson for Ryan Howard is just as bad as the Mets actually trading Kazmir for Zambrano. That only happens because other teams believe BA and BP when they say we don’t have a good farm system.

    Only the Rays, Twins, Brewers, and maybe the Marlins(most of the guys they bring up are trades from other teams during the firesale of their own stars) have compared to, or exceded our Farm systems production over the past ten years. Yet Baseball America and the Prospectus will rate our system around 20 again this year. Let them sell their books, we’ll just keep on developing talent.

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  25. Phil, nice post, but did you mention Clay Condrey as a gem of the system? Haha. Agreed though, guys like Sampson, and Galvis are what make this system stronger, plus the 08 draftees are pretty solid. D’ Arnaud’s running away with this one.

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  27. Good point Phil. I agree with your point about BA. I was reviewing their top 100 lists for each of the past 16 years and the Phils have never had more than 3 on the list and usually less. Utley topped out at 82, now he tops out at #1 when it comes to second basemen. They kept moving Hamels lower, so I agree that nationally the Phils system gets very little respect. By the way if you are going to count Condrey who was drafted by the Padres then you could count Victorino who was the Eastern League Player of the year and did not make BA or BP list. Great points though.

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  28. I know, but I was short bullpen guys and then I thought about Condrey for a bit. He may not be an 8th inning guy but he handles his role of middle relief well, and I did only say “good relievers” 🙂

    He is a good reliever at a resonable price. Guys like that make a difference. That’s why I put him on the list. You will note that I left Geary off the list even though I think he can be considered a good middle reliever at a reasonable price.(and he helped get us Lidge)

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  32. The fact that Savery isn’t on here yet is a tribute to how much stronger our farm system has gotten in the past year…even with the loss of Outman and Cardenas we still should move up. It is not a bashing of Joe in the slightest.

    Savery is my darkhorse pick for a huge 09 season in the minors. I really think he’ll put it all together next year.

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  33. I went with D’arnaud. Some people really love his ceiling so they had him higher, and I think he’s obviously got a lot of potential, but for a guy who hasn’t spent much time above short season ball I think this is a fair spot. He has a long way to go and hopefully at this time next year he’ll be several spots higher on this list.

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  34. good points one and all.im glad that ba. and bp. are finally being exposed for the yankee,red sox propoganda machines they are. one thing sbout savery as ive said before ive seen him a few times and i predict he is a better hitter than pitcher.

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  35. Not to get too far ahead of ourselves (but this does seem like a slam dunk for D’Arnaud) but in terms of ceiling and progress I have Edgar Garcia ahead of Savery.

    Thoughts from the Savery boosters?

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  36. D’Arnaud is the pick here, edging out Savery and Collier. Savery’s performance has been disappointing enough the drop him a few slots. Collier is the best from the recent draft followed by Knapp. D’Arnaud answered the offensive questions last year to go with his plus defense. The Phillies should have a string of catching prospects from High A to Short Season next year.

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  37. PP – don’t take this the wrong way, but you gotta loosen up dude. You can’t let the losers, who are out there everywhere, bother you. And yes, someone who thinks this FREE site is “dead and cheap”, and actually takes the time to write that and not just leave is, in my humble opinion, a loser. And yes I am using “loser” only because other words I am actually thinking aren’t fit for public consumption.

    And I agree with all the others who have commented on the same thing – I think you got upset before (can’t remember about what) and you stopped posting. While I greatly appreciate all of your effort in keeping this site up I also liked you opinions, and to be honest, I would think it would be more fun for you than “just” being a site administrator. Obvisously your call but we’d love to have you back. Now obviously I don’t know you, but I get the sense this isn’t as fun for you of late. So come on back, join the fray, and have some fun!! While there are the aforementioned losers out there, I think the banter, whether posting or just reading, is part of the fun!

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  38. Fifth time’s a charm… Travis d’Arnaud.

    RodeoJones: I’ve been struggling with where to place Garcia on the board. Getting to AA at age 20 is an impressive accomplishment, but a couple of things worry me. First, his strikeout totals (even combined with a low walk rate) leave something to be desired. Second, the scouting reports on him talk about his inconsistency. Third, his ground ball tendencies have dried up as he’s climbed the ladder (from 46% in ’05 to 36.5% in ’08).

    Savery’s got his own issues, not the least of which was some spotty command last year (6.92 K/9, 3.40 BB/9). But I take into consideration: (A) the fact that he was double-jumped; and (B) that he’s still working his way back from injury; and I’m relatively pleased with the results. His 50.3% ground ball ratio bodes well going forward, and the arsenal that made him a 1st round pick is still there.

    Track record goes to Garcia, certainly, but ceiling still goes to Savery. I’m going Savery at #9 for now, but we’ll get to see how they compare when they both start this year in Reading, and if Joe doesn’t break out like I think he will, then I might wind up agreeing with you.

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  39. This voting has made me appreciate the fact the Phillies somehow have a fairly balanced farm system, finally. While we’re only looking at two or three actual prospects at AAA (of CC, Marson, Happ, Donald), the talent seems to be laid out pretty well. High-ceiling guys, proven commodities, and possible late-bloomers can be found in a lot of places. I think it will be another year before we reap the fruits of the system (through trade possibilities for the younger guys, or actual play at the big club for the older ones).

    Voted for Savery, the potential is still well in sight.

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  40. I think Joe Savery edges out d’Arnaud here. I love what d’Arnaud did last year but Savery has a higher ceiling. Imagine a big, strong lefty #2 starter batting 8th and driving in runs.

    In a world where CC Sabathia gets 7/160, pitching takes the cake. Any catchers making that kind of dough? Didn’t think so.

    Besides, Savery might be a better hitter than d’Arnaud and could make it as an outfielder a la Rick Ankiel.

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  42. PP – Those posters are correct that this website is cheap. So cheap that I don’t spend a dime to get the best reporting on phillies prospects out there. And I’m sure you can tell by the site hit stats how undead your website is. Thanks for the resource and your time.

    (D’Arnaud is a no-brainer here, by the way.)

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  44. I didn’t see the cheap and dead comments.

    To me this is my favorite phillies website.

    It used to be my third stop on the phillies heirarchy.

    Phillies.com
    beerleaguer
    phuture phillies

    I used to get here by going through the beerleaguer link. now I come here first, Phillies.com 2nd and beerleaguer third.

    By the way PP, You should put a link to the beerleaguer site on the blog list. I found your site because of that site and he does a good job of following the big club.

    The true value of your site can be measured by how many fans of other clubs come here when a trade with the phillies happens. Most websites only give you opinion. Your website is a source of information.

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  47. I voted for D’Arnaud again.

    One thing probably worth pointing out here is, with all due respect, how little most of us know about what we’re voting on. With a few honored exceptions, most of us haven’t seen many of these guys play, aside maybe from an inning or two late in a spring training game or something like that. We know the stats and what we read, and those bits of information align with our own notions (which themselves run from very insightful to really moronic) of what’s more and less valuable–D’Arnaud’s ceiling or Happ’s proximity? Taylor’s athleticism or Brown’s strike zone judgment?–and what types of minor league performance translate into major league production.

    So this is just to say that we probably all could stand to be a bit more humble in our pronouncements here. Particularly as we get into the murkier waters of prospects 11-30.

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  48. D’Anrnaud, by a mile. Flashed serious talent at Lakewood. Great makeup. Young catcher. After him, the bell curve gets really fat.

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  50. I love the site, even though I rarely post.

    Thanks!

    I voted for D’arnaud. He looks really promising even though he has a ways to go.

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  51. Well said, dajafi. Though I must say that the Top 30 threads have been much more civilized than, say, the Joe Blanton trade thread. As you allude to, there’s nothing wrong with a bit of back and forth as long as no one claims to know better than everyone else.

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  53. I enjoy this site more than others because of the content and some worthwhile comments from some smart folks. I don’t agree with many on here but that’s half the fun. In terms of the system, what we’re seeing is that the talented players in the system are getting and closer to the majors where for a few years, there wasn’t much ready to help. Now, we have Marson and Donald ready to go and Taylor and a few relief pitchers just behind. While I like Happ, his ceiling is not that high. We’re back to the ceiling vs. time until ready question. The Phils currently have lots of A level players with high ceilings for a change. Obviously, that comes form a drafting strategy of looking for guys with high ceilings but who may never reach it. Golson never reached his but lets’s hope that Dom Brown reaches his.

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  55. There are a lot of guys who don’t get a lot of attention (love as some of you call it) on any of these sites, but who are REAL ballplayers. Their stats are not jumping off the page, but watching teams like Lakewood last summer (I saw about 15 games), these guys can play baseball. From that standpoint I agree with Murray. I’m referring to guys like Dennis Winn, Herman Demmink, and Karl Bolt. Lakewood didn’t have the winning season they did, based on one or two stars. They did it as a well coached, cohesive team that seemed very much to enjoy what they were doing, despite bus breakdowns, long roadtrips, etc. Winn and Demmink had some injury issues, and Bolt had one terrible month, but otherwise these guys contributed big time.

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  56. PP – don’t worry about the haters, it’s like when you use the subway in new york right, and you inevitably bump into people, when you apologise, some will say it’s ok, or no worries, or something. Others, will scowl at you. It’s less a reflection of you and your site then it is of their personality.

    It looks like D’arnaud is winning in a landslide, not to much of a surprise, though in all honesty other then the talk on here and the general concenus that he’s really good, I know little or nothing concrete about this guy. What kind of OPS does everyone think he projects best case MLB? I’m thinking like ~.830 which is damn good for a catcher. (*figure him hitting in the 5-7 hole depending on how he develops)

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  57. I have never seen a website that gets one or two bad posters and immediately turns on everyone. I love this website; I think that you provide good evidence on Phillies prospects with a good dose of reality. Stop hating on the fans man, I support this website and I love the Phils.

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  58. Maybe I should clarify my earlier post: I mostly meant that I think D’Arnaud should’ve been ranked higher.

    It is true that in making these rankings, the system does appear deeper to me than I’d thought it was. However, there does seem to be a shortage of frontline talent, guys whom you can easily imagine being stars in the big leagues. Then again, not many people predicted stardom for Utley and Howard, so who knows…

    dajafi makes a great point; I really do know very little about these guys, just some stats and a few brief (and sometimes conflicting) scouting reports. Hence all the “maybes” and “appears” and “seems” in my posts 🙂

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  60. Couldn’t agree with you more, Annie. Lakewood was a fun team to watch, and I have high hopes for a few; namely Mattair, Brown, Stutes (almost had a no-hitter, I think), Galvis, Cisco, and Naughton. Long list for one team, I know, but those guys all had some great moments. Perfect blend of leadership and youth. Except that Eaton guy…bad egg 😉

    I will vote for d’Arnaud this time around, because if Compton can do the same for him as he did for Naughton (defensively), he’ll be a contender.

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  62. PP, for what it’s worth to you. I started posting on Phillies forums, etc. in 2004 or thereabouts. It was fun at first and then I got too involved in responding to the idiots and getting emotional.

    I am just looking for intelligent, fun conversation and I recognize that I’m not right all the time and I don’t have to be. I finally realized getting emotional with these guys feeds into their game. But don’t cut off the nose to spite the face. I began engaging only with reasonable posters only, regardless of whether I agreeed with them, as long as I could have a civil, reasoned conversation. If anyone responded idiotically, I learned to ignore completely. They do go away. It’s like the movie “War Games.” “The only way to win is not to play.”

    But for me, it’s not necessary to disengage completely.

    Again, just my personal experinece, which may or may not be helpful,

    I also agree you bring a lot of excellent facts, insight and judgement into the conversation.

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  63. Excellent post, Dajafi.

    Annie: agree these guys need recognition and discusssion. We are simply not at the level where they slot in yet. And some of them, despite being good ballplayers and great guys at A level, may not be seen as potential major leaguers at all. Scouts, see a long, slow swing or a lack of power at a power position, etc. and it’s pretty clear some of them will not make it. That’s why they fall way down thelist or are left off it.

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  64. I wouldn’t worry about the criticism. This site actually gets a lot of traffic and posts for what it is a blog about the Phillies minor league system. in the big scheme of things that is a pretty obscure topic to have a blog about. How many other blogs are out there dedicated only to one minor league farm system? I am guessing not many and they ones that do exist probably do a lot worse than this site. Keep up the great work Phuture Phillies!

    I voted for Travis D’Arnaud, btw.

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  65. Annie
    I hope to get up to Lakewood this summer; I appreciate
    your words about thse guys and you have to respect a man going for a dream. It can be a hard life for them very cruel
    stand on the brink then disaster. See ya there

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  66. I think I’m the only one who values Savery very high. Kinda depressing. I’ve been voting for him since #4 (3?), and have been the only one, until last time. And he’s still not very close to gaining a spot.

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  67. Sorry to say, there have been other priorities in my life recently and I have not been able to participate, to date.

    Since I have D’Arnaud rated #4, I certainly have to vote for him @ #8.

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  68. I voted for Mayberry. My reasons being 1) Power Potential 2) What we gave up to get him (golson) 3) He’s much more seasoned and ready than most of the other candidates we have on the board. Most have not even cracked AA

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  69. Darno….no question about it…but I’m thinking this is the last vote that I’m able to type “no question about it”…

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  72. Sean, I think people are down on Super Joe here a little bit after his year. We all expected a lot out of him his first year and although he posted some OK peripherals (great ground ball rate), his K rate and BB rate were disappointing. The thing that was disturbing to me were the reports that his stuff was down mid way through the year, one report had his fastball at 86-89. I went back and read a few scouting reports on him and it cheered me up, the guy is a potential number 2 starter in the eyes of a lot of people and with a solid year, backed up with good stuff, there’s no reason he can’t be back up this last again in the top 5. I think he’ll crack the top 10 this year.

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  73. Sean, I think people want to believe the potential and pedigree and value Savery higher. I think he’s simply on hold until he overcomes his consistency problems. Maybe he just needs to get stronger and stretch out his arm more after his surgery. But there were enough stretches of mediocre or sometimes bad outings to cast some doubt. I think most people here are positive enough to jump on the bandwagon when his performance warrants it.

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  74. I’m not sure what to make of Savery. It’s been awhile since I looked at his numbers, but IIRC he had long stretches this year where he was terrific. Then he’d hit a patch of 2-3 starts in which he couldn’t get anyone out. Even in those, though, his GO/FO rate was consistently excellent.

    I feel pretty confident the guy will pitch in the majors, but whether as a mid-rotation starter, swing man, or middle reliever, I don’t have much of a sense. If I did up my personal top 30, he’d probably be around #10.

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  75. 1flyfan thanks interesting list
    But poor Mike Cisco 0.51 era as
    a starter ,no walks and lost his only game on unerrand runs
    and cant get an honorable mention ouch

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  76. Both D’Arnaud and Savery are intriguing players.

    Of course, D’Arnaud didn’t come to pro ball with an injury to his own essential baseball physical condition: Savery had arm surgery a year or so before he was drafted.

    The Phils attitude seems to be (Shreve, Hamels–and Savery) that today’s medical newest techniqes for repairing injuries is much more advanced for complete recovery when the patient-athlete ain’t too old.

    The obvious success with Hamels is one of the Phils’ best stories to be entitled” How A Broken Arm Became Part Of A Supreme Pitcher’s Philly Success.” (Like another Carlton…maybe)

    Savery is and has been an excellent baseball athlete, noting his hitting skills, too. His arm ios in “recovery” and IF he gets it happenin’ in ’09…ot makes significant progress, I believe our future rotation will include Savery, Hamels, & Drabek as gems to be supplemented by such as Carrasco, etc.

    Though I believe that Savery COULD/WOULD? be a #2 for us (or #1 for other teams), D’Arnaud has alkready shown his budding abilities in pro ball.

    The seemingly high ceiling for our catcher-prospects seems to represent a strength that I’ve never seen before in the franchise………

    D’Arnaud…for now. MAYBE Savery moves WAY up during ’09.

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