Jim Callis quick hits

ESPN/BA/BP Mentions

From today’s chat at ESPN

dan ( philly): Big Mike Taylor or Dom Brown?

SportsNation Jim Callis: Brown.

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Dave (Philly): Carrasco or Drabek in 5 years?

SportsNation Jim Callis: Drabek.

Update, 12/4: Keith Law did a chat today

Phil (PA): Who are your top 3 Phillies prospects, relative to age and level?

SportsNation Keith Law: (2:28 PM ET ) Did I answer this above? Donald, Brown, Carrasco, probably Taylor next. I’m a little down on Marson, whose swing is going to generate a ton of groundballs.

58 thoughts on “Jim Callis quick hits”

  1. Neither answer surprises me.

    How’s this for an question/answer?

    Q: Between Drabek and Carrasco, who will be in the Phillies rotation in 5 years?

    A: Both…booyah!!!

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  2. The only grain of salt I take with BA stuff is that they’re generally very tools-oriented. Drabek certainly has a higher ceiling than Carrasco — if all works out, Kyle might be an ace, or at least a #2, while Carlos is more of a #2/3. But given that they’re virtually the same age (Carrasco is 9 months older) and Carrasco has a decent track record all the way through AAA, while Drabek has none really to speak of, I don’t think we’re wrong in ranking Carrasco higher on our prospect list(s).

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  3. i would be interested to hear why he says that. i can understand brown over taylor. but drabek over carrasco? don’t get me wrong, i love drabek. have always been a fan. loved the pick. think he has huge upside. but hasn’t done it for a full year yet. carrasco is a two time futures game pitcher that has performed well at all levels of the minors. i mean…that is a lot of projection at this point.

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  4. With those two pairs, it’s really a close call. Not sure how significant it is to pick one over the other. Carrasco wins over Drabek if you give a more extensive track record more weight. Taylor wins if you give dominant performance at two levels more weight. As others have shown, you can look at it other ways and get other answers. But I don’t think it matters. What matters is that Taylor/Brown are our top ourfielders, with high upside, good risk factors and should both be in the #4-7 range. Carrasco gets the nod today, but maybe Drabek looks like Hamels next year. So that’s just a timeline difference. To me, those judgements are so fine, that the normal risk factors, such as injury, mishandling, or poor adjustment to opponent pitching and hitting strategies in high minors and majors outweigh the minor differences.

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  6. He said in 5 years so who cares what level they’re on? Plus BA ranked Carrasco higher too. This assumes they’ll both be in the MLB in 5 years and that Drabek has a higher upside. Upside is all that is relevant here. Drabek’s pre-2009 stats are useless because he was still recovering from surgery.

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  7. ESPN deportes had the Caracas VZL game on tonight. Unfortunately I only started watching in the 9th. Carrasco started the game, he went 4IP 6H 6R 2ER 2BB 6Ks. I’m really disappointed that I didn’t get to see him pitch, would’ve like to seen what kind of stuff he’s throwing down there.

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  8. All I can say is that we as Phillies fans should be glad to be able to have this discussion. Just think of a potential front of the rotation consisting of Hamels, Carrasco, Drabek, and hopefully Knapp down the road. It would be great if these guys live up to expectations.

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  13. baxter – how can you say pre-2009 stats don’t matter? at a certain point the kid has to perform. the minors is littered with pitchers who had great stuff but couldn’t throw it over the plate consitently or stay healthy consitently. that all matters when looking at a prospect.

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  15. I believe he is saying that Drabek’s pre-2009 stats don’t matter because he was probably pitching injured early on and in 2008 he was still in TJ recovery mode so his numbers would reflect that as well

    His numbers as the 2008 season progressed got better and 2009 should be his first full healthy season in the system and will provide a better indication of his abilities

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  16. No, he was saying pre-2009 didn’t matter because the question was who would he take in 5 years. So, the response was based purely on his opinion of each pitcher’s upside and has nothing to do with prospect status right now where one would need to consider past performance, age, and level.

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  18. Also said this earlier in the chat, and Klaw rarely, if ever, throws the “sleeper” label around.

    Dan (philly): Any thoughts on Dominic Brown in the Phillies org? Thanks.

    SportsNation Keith Law: He might be too well-known for this, but he’s a sleeper. Probably their #2 prospect for me, after Donald, although you could make a case for Carrasco.

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  20. Pat, I did not mean to say that past performance, age, and level had no bearing on a prospects potential. What I should have said was that when ranking them where you think they will be in five years rather than today, the upside/potential is the main factor, rather than past performance, age, and level, which again would all have a greater impact on ranking if you were ranking them now.

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  21. Just reading the full KLawChat and thought this was interesting:

    Dan (Atlantic City, NJ): Speaking of Delmon Young, what prospects might the Phillies need to include with Jason Donald to land him?

    Keith Law: I wouldn’t offer too much more than that. Donald’s going to be at least an average everyday 2b, could be an average everyday ss, and while I believe Young will hit for more power if he gets away from Minnesota, I wouldn’t pay full value on that expectation.

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  23. I’d make that trade in a heartbeat, savior…too bad I don’t work for the twins f.o., tho…

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  25. i’m aware of how much u like donal, john…and I like donald too.

    delmon young is a younger player. with phenom potential. note the word potential. he fills a need.

    donald is blocked at his best position. and his second best position. they’re working him at a new position because there will eventually be an opening.

    in 2010.

    if donald is a nice bat/utility infielder (which is exactly what he was in AFL), and young is a potential allworld talent with a questionable head…

    sit young in the dugout between rollins and howard and hope.

    but, hey, I’m a gambler…

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  26. Um…D. Young posted a 103 OPS+ in his Age 22 season and cut his SO/BB ratio from 5-1 to 3-1 from his rookie year to 2nd year.

    Yeah, I’d make that trade in a second.

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  27. Yes, the guy made a mistake and he learned from that mistake when he served a 50 game suspension as a result. He hasn’t had any personality issues since that trade from all accounts.

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  28. i want nothing to do with that guy. it isn’t about his mistakes. it is about his attitude. the big club is made up of players that love the game and play hard. donald fits that perfectly. d. young doesn’t. i wouldn’t take him for free. he is a cancer.

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  29. Where is Donald going to be average? 2nd and SS. Those are filled. At third he has a below avg bat. If we could get Delmon Young for Donald, I’d do it in a heartbeat. He’s younger and has already played in the majors. Cmon be realistic.

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  32. How do you really know anything about his makeup though? An incident that occurred 2 years ago? Unless you’ve been in the Twins or Rays clubhouse for an extended period of time there’s no way to tell. Remember that this guy is 22 and had a ton of expectations tossed on him at a very young age in Tampa and Minnesota. Philly might be perfect as he’d be a complimentary guy at best…Hell he’d be behind Utley, Hamels, Rollins, Howard, Vic, and Werth when it comes to star power. That’s a totally different animal.

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  33. yeah yeah and the wife up the street looks great but then
    u dont have to live with her.
    Donald and Marson stay because they are the steady players
    this line up needs. there are plenty of streaky guys already.
    Ya cant get that 3 run hr without two on
    god that is so deep

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  34. Pat Burrrell:
    “Where is Donald going to be average? 2nd and SS. Those are filled. At third he has a below avg bat. If we could get Delmon Young for Donald, I’d do it in a heartbeat. He’s younger and has already played in the majors. Cmon be realistic.”

    I like Young, too, but the myth that Donald has a below average bat for 3B is hogwash. Feliz and Dobbs are below average, Donald projects to be just fine there, especially if he continues to develop power as he has in the last two seasons. His SLG went from .357 to .447 to .496 as he advanced to AA. His OBP has hovered near .400. Kid can hit.

    The only people who think Donald projects below average at 3B are those who think every prospect is going to stink when they get to the show, and severely discount minor league stats. Mike Arbuckle is one of those, unfortunaterly. He thought Howard wouldn’t hit in the majors, either.

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  35. BTW, the difference in median OPS between National League 2B and Natoinal League 3B is about 10 points, .730 to .740 — don’t know how you can be above average at one position and below at the other, unless your projections are awfully accurate.

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  36. the assertions that donald is average are statiscally inaccurate to say the least but as i learned along time ago stats are only half the story. WATCH players and tell me what your gut says. owens loved a little guy named bowa who couldnt hit a lick. once again time will tell. but this argument is beyond reality anyway. nepp have you seen d’armand i know you like the kid alot. could he in reality be marsons equal? if so i am beginning to entertain thoughts of peavy. my only untouchable because of position is donald. i can live with ruiz. marson and carrasco for jake? too much or worth it.he can persuaded to come here.

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  37. I think Peavy has a FNTC, with the Phils on it, right?

    As much as I like Donald, I would take D. Young for him without hesitation. That bat incident was ugly, but from what I’ve heard, it wasn’t exactly his character to behave that way. I’m farily stunned to hear so many people not even want him “for free”. Ludicrous.

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  38. Delmon Young only has a year or two of ML service time. I would trade Donald for him in a minute. I’d have to think if anything is holding it up it’s that the Phillies have to sweeten the deal.

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  40. this isn’t a blog about twin’s mlb players, but i think the broader point is relevant. to Bedrosian’s Beard’s comment about my comment about not taking young for free being “Ludicrous”, you don’t seem to put any weight on what a bad seed can do to a team’s chemistry. the phillies are a team built around a strong chemistry and that is how they over achieved this year. they have heart. they don’t give up on games and thus are never out of a game. they keep fighting and fighting. young is an example of a player the exact opposite. great raw skills, classic under achiever and no heart. i don’t care how old he is. i don’t want him on my team.

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  41. I haven’t seen Jason Donald play. I just really on the people that have and they say Donald is league average at 2nd and below at 3rd. I’m not saying he’s not valuable but he hasn’t even hit above AA yet. Delmon Young has hit major league pitching at a younger age than Donald, I don’t understand why you wouldn’t want another potential stud, 5 tool outfielder.

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  42. when has a five tool outfielder work for us. no way i trade d. young for donald, for all the same reasons pp fan mentions.

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  43. pat – focusing on his tools misses my point. it is his head that concerns me, not his ability to hit a curve

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  44. Focusing on his head may also miss the point PP Fan. I mean, how many of us haven’t done something that we really regret when we were 19/20 years old? He *seems* to have learned from his mistake and was not a distraction for the Twins last year.

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  45. “when has a five tool outfielder work for us.” They’re not drafting him, so it doesn’t matter 😉

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  46. You know, I’m not all that thrilled about trading Donald for anyone who could likely end up in that type of discussion (Delmon Young, etc. . . .). The reason is this. It seems to me that Donald is the prototypical type of new Phillies’ prospect. A guy who may have been overlooked in college, is intelligent, is a great team player and has skills that emerge late. Howard and Utley fit into this category too, as does Michael Taylor. I keep reminding people that, in his first two pro seasons, Chase Utley hit .257 and .263 – yes, that’s right (now, granted, he jumped from Clearwater to Scranton, but, still, he wasn’t exactly knocking on the door at Cooperstown those years).

    Donald is going to be an incredibly valuable player. Each time he goes up a level he does nothing but improve. He draws walks, he hits for power and hits for average. He seems to be an absolutely perfect fit for the major league team. Why the hell are people so anxious to get rid if him? Let’s see what we got before we start trading young players like Donald. Fortunately for the rest of us, I think the Phillies know exactly what they’ve got in Donald, so I doubt he’s going anywhere.

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  47. 22 dont forget he fits left and right handers. Those kind of players who improve up the later may lose 20 points at MLB
    I will take that No real head cases needed(although some times it is team bs and personal)
    e.g. When Tony Taylor came here the cubs said he was a trouble maker lol

    BTW you can put Cisco on that list

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  48. nowheels i bet you remember pancho the 3 tonys in the of mack burk harry the horse etc. what a team.oh yeah if anyone can name the one philly from the virgin islands give yourself a prize.

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  49. TONY CURRY what do i win. Thankfully i was in Germany for the big collapse. Pancho the second baseman was unreal. Once saw Harry hit a ball of the rf fence so hard he got a single.
    I was a big Chris Short fan(amazing resemblence to a lost friend) Bill Giles showed is real self when he refused to help Short. Ask Art Mahaffey Oh well i guess we will be watching
    Shoeless Joe soon lol

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  50. Alex Johnson one of orginal airheads. pete rose and helms
    almost rode him into a batting title. Phils traded him after two
    nearl 300 seasons what a waste.

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  55. Delmon Young- I see some stat boy did a study in which Pat Burrell was rated the 2nd worst fielding OF in MLB. The worst?–Delmon Young.

    Valmy Thomas came by trade. The ’58 rookie of the year, Jack Sanford, for Ruben Gomez and Valmy Thomas.
    Ruben Gomez, when with the Dodgers, fired some balls close to the head of Juan Marichal. Juan charged the mound and when restrained by John Roseboro, Juan took a bat to Johnny Roseboro’s head. Those were the days of some intense competitions.

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