Reader Top 30; #5

2009 Reader Top 30

The voting thread for spot #4 confirmed to me my decision to stop participating in the discussions here. Its done wonders for my sanity. Kyle Drabek won a close vote for the #4 spot over Michael Taylor, with 10 different prospects getting votes. Complete breakdown:

Drabek — 52
Taylor — 45
Happ — 15
Brown — 6
Mayberry — 3
D’Arnaud — 2
Mathieson, Collier, Savery, Knapp — 1

Today we round out the top 5.

01. Carlos Carrasco, RHP
02. Lou Marson, C
03. Jason Donald, SS
04. Kyle Drabek, RHP
05.

133 thoughts on “Reader Top 30; #5”

  4. Dominic Brown. Younger than Taylor and has proven himself for two seasons instead of just one. Also, from all of the scouting reports that I have read, Brown seems to be doing just fine in the tools department as well.

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  7. 12/02/08 10:32 AM EST
    Bastardo breezes by Carmona

    Bastardo did it again so ya gotta believe he has survived the
    Forbes/Filer experience. On the other hand ya gotta luv a guy
    like Cisco who gets better at the next level and wonder what happens next jump hmmm can i split my vote???
    ok Ill go with Brown

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  8. after giving thought to this ranking i have come to this conclusion. it seems obvious that happ will be the number 4 starter this year, carrasco probably long relief, donald backup at all 3 inf positions, marson backup catcher. unforntunitly i dont think pat will be back so were looking for a 1 year fill in until 2010. whoever that is i have no idea. so after 1,2,3,and 4 is were we are really looking at true prospects. i have seen donald,marson,happ and carrasco enough to know they are more than mlb. ready. so as of now were looking at drabek,taylor,brown,bastardo as true prospects with guys i have never seen moving up or down. the positions most needed for 2010 will be lf and pitching.in my opinion the rest of the team will be totally set. therefore we will need to see who jumps out this year in the minors. obviously i hope brown or taylor in left, and drabek or bastardo. i have not seen thiese guys so i would only be making a guess now. the other guys are d’armand knapp and players who are at least 2 years away.one thing about jaramillo and d’armand is that catcher is not a position we will need. as good as d’armand sounds do you think he ever supplant marson ? nepp ? so it seems we have an abundance of tradeable players next year to fill any need. im as sure as i can be about the 4 guys this year. but after that i can only hope. 1 more thing mayberry looks like hell be a righty off the bench this year.thank god the seasons start soon.

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  10. This is in regards to the Bastardo blurb that was on milb.com. Instead of just reading the catchy headline, I suggest atleast looking at the box score before we heap praise onto Bastardo. In 1/3 less of an inning, Carmona gave up an identical amount of hits+walks. So, I would geuss that it is mere luck that Bastardo gave up fewer runs. Also, someone might say that Carmona gave up 2 long balls while Bastardo masterfully kept the ball in the park. But, to that, I say look at the groundball to flyball outs ratio. Carmona had 8 k’s, 8 groundouts, and only 2 flyouts. Bastardo had only 2 k’s, 7 groundouts, and an alarming 9 flyouts. So, again, I think it is mostly with luck the Bastardo “outdueled” Carmona.

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  11. I will go with Mayberry again. To me you can toss Drabek, Taylor, Brown, and Mayberry in a hat and pick one for 4 to 7. They are close. Happ would be below them in my eyes.

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  15. Neduol Caz do you go around at parties breaking ballons.
    Bastardo’s record out side of Reading was stellar and i have made my feeling on Reading very clear. As for flyball they are an advantage in Philly’s small outfield as long as they stay in.
    Check Happ’s record in Reading against Myers . Not all flyballs are created equal. A flyball by a ground ball pitcher is almost
    a mistake by definition.
    Seems to me Bastardo has been mighty Lucky lately.
    sit back and enjoy

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  19. nepp, i know you know last total stats for brown and taylor. whats the scoop on them. whos got more power,defence,avg. etc. who is likely to have a better year. if people continue to call happ a prospect ,i would rate him #4 but i dont i believe he will develop his deuce and win app.15 games a year

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  22. PP, if you don’t mind my listing more than one pick, I’m going to be out of pocket for a few days:
    05. Taylor
    06. Happ
    07. d’Arnaud
    08. Savery
    09. Brown

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  32. I would be picking Taylor in this spot, but since Happ is still on the board i’ll go with him again.

    Happ.

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  35. I guess PP made his preference for Taylor at #4 known. However, I’ve been swayed by Dom Brown’s production vs. age vs. similar competition to Taylor.

    Dom Brown.

    It was a tough call at 3-7 between Drabek, Brown, Donald and Taylor for me, but I’d consider that a good thing.

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  39. Carrasco listed as #28 on milb.com top 50 prospects:

    Scouting report: He can touch 95 mph with his fastball, but it usually sits at 92. His curve is average, but the changeup, which has sink, is a plus pitch at times and is particularly tough against left-handed hitters. He needs to pitch off fastball more.

    Upside potential: Top-of-the-rotation right-hander, settling in behind Cole Hamels.

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  41. Nice write-up on Carrasco! I guess the issue has always been the same thing: the changeup. That person seems to think he’s got it mastered. That makes him a possible #2 in my mind.

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  42. Taylor – More of an upside over Mayberry – seems to have overcome the “Stanford swing” already (whereas Mayberry may not have) and has a TON of assists…18 over the season is impressive.

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  47. Taylor.

    I like D.Brown and was further very impressed with his ranking in the BA Hawaii league list. A part of me thinks I’m overthinking him and that maybe he should be #2 on this list. But I just have this feeling that nothing stands out about him. If he drops 20 bombs next year or even just 35-40 doubles, than I’ll jump entirely on the bandwagon. But until I think a guy will do more than hit 280-300 with 10-15 HRs and no particular stolen base prowess I have to go with Taylor, who also offers physical abilities to dream on while also having translated it to the field.

    Finally I’m perplexed by the proprietor of this site making an offhand remark in the intro that seems to be a dig at the intelligence of the commenters on this blog. Fine if it’s too difficult for him to engage in the banter here without going nuts, but I didn’t see any particular idiocy (no brilliance either, mind you) to the thread yesterday.

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  48. d’armand. Just kidding.

    It’s either Tyler Green, Brad Baisley or Bruce Ruffin. Kidding again.

    Michael Taylor. He could make us all regret not picking him #1.

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  52. Will – I had thought the same thing but it could also be a mention of how off-topic these threads can get. From what I remember that was one of the main issues he had with the discussions, them going too far astray from topic or even sticking to minor leagues only.

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  54. scouts either say his breaking ball or his change is a plus pitch but never both. i read one scouting report that said his curve will be a good as beckett’s, but now there saying his change is his best pitch. taylor is my pick.

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  55. Travis d’Arnaud.

    I think Happ’s being a big overhyped for a back-end starter, but he certainly deserves to be in the Top 10 somewhere. What I can’t I can’t understand right now is the swelling of support for Mayberry: a 24-year old with a career .255/.330/.472 line in over 1700 minor league at bats. To me, he looks like nothing more than a 4th OF/platoon type at the major league level, a fact which no amount of “major league readiness” should obscure.

    As for my pick, d’Arnaud… I think I’ll be repeating his name through a few votes at least. A combined .305/.367/.464 line from Williamsport and Lakewood, a .159 ISO, and an 8.8% BB rate and 16.3% K rate. In other words, better than Dom Brown in his Age 19 season, and d’Arnaud’s doing it while scouts rave about his defensive ability.

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  62. I will go with Taylor for the reasons stated during the thread on the last vote. It is becoming obvious that these votes involve comparison of apples, oranges and bananas (for example, JA Happ, a major league ready pitcher with Dom Brown, a center fielder who last played in low A) and there is not going to be any compelling argument or reason to prefer one prospect over another between number 4 and at least number 8.

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  64. Taylor for the third time. I love Brown, but Mike has just put up better stats all across the board with the exception of the HWL. Taylor has been quoted saying he’s working on new things in the winter league so he expected his production to decline a little. His mental makeup and production at both levels last year makes me think he’ll be special. Hopefully he can make some noise in spring training to earn a September call-up. Let’s at least chalk him up for #5 on the list.

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  69. Brown, Taylor, Happ, and D’Arnaud all seem like reasonable picks, depending on where you fall on the “major league ready” vs. “long-term potential” side of things. I also can’t understand the Mayberry votes. Major league ready to be a platoon player does not a top prospect make. IMO

    Anyway, I’ll go with D’Arnaud. PhillyFriar makes a pretty good argument.

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  73. IMHO Brown has more upside than Taylor and isnt that far behind if at all so I have to say…

    Dom Brown!

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  74. Why is anyone picking Mayberry this high? Hes 25 and MIGHT be a platoon type guy how does this make him a top 5 prospect? The same thing goes for a #4 SP at best just because Happ is ready to step in doesnt make him a TOP prospect. Our system is MUCH MUCH better than 2/3 years ago when Happ was actually considered a solid prospect. When you have 4 or 5 guys at the AA level or higher with GREAT upside and solid production you cant put #4 starters and Platoon type OFers that high on any list.

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  75. I would be deeply depressed if Mayberry were actually our #5 prospect. He might crack the top 10 but I would have trouble placing him in it as I could think of 10 other guys with better upsides than him.

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  78. Happ. He may not even make the majors this season, but if he keeps his walk rate down, his track record is good enough that it wouldn’t surprise me if he pitches better than Myers, Blanton, and last year’s Phillies #2 starter, Moyer. I saw somebody compare Happ to Bastardo, who allows more HR and BB per inning and has yet to log a 100 inning season, so I think that comparison is premature.

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  80. I don’t see Mayberry cracking the top 10, just as Golson would not have. Makes sense to me. I think it was a good trade but it didn’t turn a mid-teen prospect into a top 10 one.

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  81. Michael Taylor, i see taylor and brown pretty equal right now as far as potential and skill level, i give the edge to taylor because he is closer to the majors and would fill a big hole for the phillies in a couple years in left if the phils don’t resign burrell, this is given that taylor keeps building off last season

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  84. Since Pat Combs went ahead of him at #4, I’ll take Taylor again (ever so slightly over D’Arnaud and a hard charging Dom Brown).

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  93. Michael Taylor… I mean he has been playing lights out all year, as opposed to being hot … or even playing at all just lately

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  94. love the site. been lurking for awhile. but come on…

    how is taylor even still on the board?

    MIKE TAYLOR!

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  95. One thing about Mayberry he was a mid teen prospect in a system that is very deep. The Rangers had 5 guys in the top 100 in BA last year and BA ranked their system 4th in the majors. I believe the Phillies system was in the low 20’s which I think should have been a little higher, but the point is the Rangers have a deeper system than the Phillies. I don’t think it’s stretch at all for Mayberry to be in our top 10 because of that I voted for him. That being said I think Mayberry, Taylor, Brown, Drabek, Savery, and D’Arnaud could go in any order. Happ would be behind these guys because he lacks the upside of these guys. I went with Mayberry because I think he has upside and he is closer to the majors than some of these other guys.

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  100. Red Booker, Last year our system was indeed considered LOW in the 20’s but it was due to a lot of things. Most of our best players were in Hi A or lower, Drabek just had TJ surgery, Taylor didnt produce at ALL, Carrasco was still being questioned on numerous things, Happ was hurt the year before so seriously lowered our depth. IMHO we will have 4 or 5 guys in the top 100 this year on BA.

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  101. Where did all of this Mayberry business come from? You might as well be voting for Jeremy Slayden… they both have about the same upside.

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  109. i will never understand why a month in hawaii, after multiple issues with a dislocated or separated shoulder this season (an injury that tends to repeat itself ), could make somebody #5 over a player (like taylor) who dominated nearly the entire season. despite having a “rocky” start in A+ he still ended up with a .350 average for the season.

    not that i don’t think brown shouldn’t be top 10, i just think taylor’s making better use of his ‘tools’, and is making it apparent that he’s working to improve both his tools AND application.

    also Marfis- better build than who???

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  111. @ Anonymous (above):

    I can’t speak for everyone else, but my rating Brown above Taylor has nothing to do with their respective performances in Hawaii. It has everything to do with: Brown being 2 years younger (at the same level), having superior plate discipline, and having a track record of success that’s longer than just one season. I mean, by the time Brown plays his Age 22 season, he’ll be in either Reading or Allentown — whereas Taylor was working his way through A ball at that age.

    Now if Brown doesn’t progress well and Taylor tears up Reading like he did Lakewood and Clearwater last year, then all bets are off. But for me at least, Brown’s the superior prospect right now. Whatever the case, it’s a nice problem to have, huh?

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  113. Fair enough, Friar (i’m anon from above…whoops). Agree to disagree? Friendly wager? $5 says Taylor develops into the better MLB player 😉 (kidding, guys)

    and…GREAT problem.

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  115. That would be interesting to start making pools on who develops into the best players….. too bad the payout would take years. We’d need a really reliable booky.

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  117. Mayberry was rated highly in the Rangers system but as I understand it, his stock was on the decline. I still think he’s in the teens, but not ahead of some of the players in the Phillies system which have been trending upward this year.

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  126. Already voted, but, I say Brown has the better build for baseball. Now, for football, maybe Taylor would be preffered by some. But Brown is more the Wide Receiver build, while Taylor is more of a DE/LB hybrid type. For baseball the bigger build is not really necessary in most cases, if power can be generated other ways.But, the real advantage for Brown is flexibility in the shoulder area and a lithe that can generate torque and an ability to whip limbs though the striking area. Taylor on the other hand, has a sampling of that, but also alot of “Burrell’ish qualities.

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  127. Not sure I agree with that analysis of which is a better build for baseball – especially since Taylor has proven to have great power and decent speed…(and a cannon for an arm – need I point out, again, 18 assists?).

    Granted, Brown did have 10 assists, but he has not shown a whole lot in the power hitting dept. And again I mention the fact that he had a shoulder injury this year (twice).

    Taylor may not need to tackle anybody, but I would hardly say his size is ‘unnecessary.’

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