Reader Top 30; #4

2009 Reader Top 30

As expected, Jason Donald won the #3 spot handily after falling short on Day 1 and Day 2. The voting should now get quite interesting, with a number of intriguing guys in the 4-10 range. The final breakdown for #3 was

Donald, 63
Taylor, 17
Drabek, 17
Happ, 13
Brown, 2
Savery, 1
D’Arnaud, 1
Knapp, 1

01. Carlos Carrasco, RHP
02. Lou Marson, C
03. Jason Donald, SS
04.

190 thoughts on “Reader Top 30; #4”

  1. give mike taylor some love please. Number 4: the big man from stanford.

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  2. Gotta go with the everyday player, Mike Taylor, over the pitcher, Drabek.

    Mike Taylor gets the nod here.

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  3. J.A. Happ. He has had a fine minor league career, has proven in the majors he is ready to start in the majors, and has the potential to be the Phillies #2 starter by the end of 2009.

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  4. Happ has potential to be a #2 starter? Eh I don’t think so, all the reports have had him topping out as a back end of the rotations starter. . . which is fine but he’s probably #6 or 7 on my list tops.

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  7. im not voting for happ just because he made it to the majors, the guy is 26 years old, so i dont think of him as a top prospect , we will see how he does with a whole season, im goin with taylor given his monster year and he should continue to improve

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  8. Happ.

    With all the talk about upside and “all-star potential,” I’m content taking a bird-in-hand approach and making a conservative pick. If Happ becomes a solid #4, and wins 10-12 games a season with a mid-4 ERA, I have to rank him higher than someone like Drabek whose chances of actually even making it to the Show are less than 50%.

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  10. Drabek.

    Good chance he’s number 1 by the end of the season, or even by the middle of the summer, based on the scouting reports and performance this winter.

    Taylor is going to regress a bit based on his silly batting averages this past season and his still middling plate discipline, which will affect how the casual fan sees him and better approximate his actual potential. That being said, he’s next on the list for me.

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  16. Drabek is the choice..

    Note: If the criteria for making the list this high is being in the majors already, then where are we going to rate T.J. Bohn and Brad Harman??

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  17. (Who knows anything if anything about Scott Mathieson.)

    I know two things,
    1. He underwent his second Tommy John surgery this past summer
    2. He shouldn’t be on anyone’s top 5 list

    Happ at no. 4

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  24. Drabek. Taylor a close 2nd, but ceiling for a pitcher with pedigree over a celing for a corner outfielder.

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  29. John Mayberry. Anybody who can hit .350 with an OPS of 1.093 in 100 at bats against AAA lefthanded pitching gotta be higher ranked than Michael Taylor who just came off hitting .182 and an OPS of .644 in 44 at bats against lefthanded pitching in Hawaii Winter Baseball.

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  32. Drabek.

    I love Taylor, but Drabek has limitless potential for a young man under 20 while Taylor still hasn’t done it above AA while being long in the tooth at every level.

    Thankfully I don’t see why Matheson should be in anyone’s top 10, let alone top 5.

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  34. I have Taylor and Brown as pretty even bets as prospects. Both have high ceilings and both have had outstanding performance. Brown’s performance in Hawaii puts him ahead of Taylor’s struggles in the same league, and coming from A+.

    So it’s Brown.

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  35. Agree Mathieson is a wildcard right now. Has to be slotted in somewhere from 10-20 maybe. However, I love this guy. If he comes back physically sound, watch out. He could be a top young pitcher coming into the majors, along with Carrasco and Drabek.

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  37. Kyle Drabek. 2009 should be a great year for Kyle, he could set himself up for a spot in 2010’s rotation.

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  40. I’ll go with Happ, edging Taylor. His minor league numbers suggest he probably should have been in the majors sooner than he made it, whether due to injury or oversight. I think he could be an okay third starter, or a good number four, and his risk is much lower than Taylor, Drabek, etc. since we’ve already seen him do it.

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  42. i honestly don’t understand this love for Happ. he is a fine pitcher, and is mlb ready. but he has a very low ceiling. brown, taylor, drabek all have much higher ceilings. you can even make the case that bastardo has a higher ceiling. you like happ’s numbers, look at bastardo’s. stuff wise, happ is average across the board. i just don’t get all of this attention this high in the rankings. is there a Happ fan club all of the sudden that started a PR campaign?

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  43. (I already voted) PP Fan – I’m hoping there’s a good reason to have a JA Happ fan club come 2009, I think he’s the favorite to clinch that #5 spot in the rotation.

    Gee, with Adam Eaton demoted to the minors at the end of last year, does that mean we can add him to this list? Would it be too high to rate him at #30?

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  49. Drabek. The early returns on the TJ surgery look promising and you have to love the baseball genes. I debated picking Taylor here in acknowledgment of his spectacular season but Drabek has ace potential and 2009 should be a breakout year for him.

    Mayberry is an interesting pick but he’s in my 11-15 range because he’ll be 25 this month and he hasn’t hit over .270 since college. Cole Hamels is a few days younger, just to give you an idea. But Mayberry is a better prospect than Golson was and I loved the trade.

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  50. While I think Happ deserves to be up high, his age and ceiling hinder him to an extent, so while I did push for him at #3 I can undertsand pulling backi on him a bit. I do love Drabek’s potential.

    #4- Drabek

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  53. I think Drabek at #4. Great stuff but injury concerns when drafted, sounds a lot like the best pitcher on the big club as well. Hopefully he puts it together and replaces Moyer next year (and Carrasco replaces Myers). Young, talented and cheap pitchers.

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  59. Drabek. He’s #1 to me so I’m voting for him until he’s off the board… and I can’t believe he has slipped to #4.

    And I really don’t understand the Happ-Hype. Anyone who thinks he’s more than a below-average lefty starter is having a pipe-dream. There really isn’t anything that justifies him into the top 5…. Kendrick had immediate major league success and Walrond had great strikeout totals in AAA…

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  60. Can’t go with Drabek. First of all, his recent records are from the lowest minors. Secondly, his strikeouts are too low, although he did better in this regard in the Hawaii winter league. He needs to show something at the A or AA levels. Happ could be a serviceable starter, but is not going to blow your socks off. Brown had a good “season” in Hawaii, but Taylor did better in A ball and did well at high A. In addition, Taylor appears to have more power.

    Michael Taylor for Prospect #4.

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  67. With I could have been the first to go against the grain here, but Matt beat me to the punch last thread…

    …Travis d’Arnaud.

    And I have to say: I’m a bit surprised with the outpouring of support for Drabek. He’ll be in my Top 10, but as SirAlden and Sifpa have alluded to, he’s all potential and no real performance to speak of thus far. 2009 could be a breakout season for him, but I’m baffled by those ranking him above someone like Carrasco.

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  68. Taylor is the number 4. I think you Kyle Drabek people are going to be very disappointed if he fails to live up to your outragous expectations. I am merely hoping for solid performance at “A ball.”

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  71. Happ

    I think pure star potential in the low minors of which Drabek has alot has to be balanced with major league readiness. Happ has shown that he can a #3-#5 LH starter, which isn’t chopped liver. I hope Drabek is #1 in this poll next year.

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  73. I like Drabek but he comes in around # 8 or 9 for me right now because other than in the small sample size of the Hawaii Winter League and a handful of outings in rookie-ball, Drabek has been underwhelming in his minor league thus far (disappointing GCL season in 2006, average season at Lakewood prior to TJ surgery). While I am encouraged by the reports that he is maturing and becoming more of a pitcher, Drabek also indicated in an MiLB interview that he has taken 2 or 3 mph off of his fastball to get more movement and command. This is good for him, but the upside of a guy throwing 90-92 and a guy throwing 94-96 is substantial (could be the difference between an ace and a #3 for an undersized RHP). Drabek may shoot up this list in my eyes with a good 2009. However, at this point, there are some guys out there who are more of a sure thing AND have big upside that should be ahead of Drabek.

    My pick: Mike Taylor.

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  74. I think Taylor is the pick here. The season he had at two levels was that impressive, and while luck played a role (BABIP .388), I’m heartened that he hit righties much better than lefties, even though Taylor is a righty–that suggests he hasn’t maximized his abilities yet.

    The Phillies seem to have an organizational knack for finding guys who underachieved, or were perceived as underachievers, in college and then turning them around once in the system: Howard, Donald, and now Taylor.

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  75. Dom Brown

    He’s two years younger than Taylor, at a much more premium position, with more tools, and has one of the two best eyes in the system (Marson being the other). He just turned 21, so there’s no reason to expect all the power to be there yet, but Brown has the highest potential in the entire system (putting him ahead of Drabek until Drabek flashes the velocity he had pre-TJ). While I disagree with Callis or whoever it was that he’s the best prospect in the system, I think he’s far and away the clear #4.

    Also, Lou Marson is the #43 prospect in baseball according to milb.com.

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  76. I vote for Michael Taylor.

    Drabek was hard to pass on but I’m still worried about his old injury. I like Dom Brown too. I’m not sure where to put Mayberry. I think he’ll fall into a slot when I’ve gotten by my favorites. I think of Happ as a Major Leaguer but I’ll have to find a slot for him too because he is still a prospect.

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  79. Michael Taylor had a great season last year and that combined with his body makes him my choice for #4. Its nice that we have a list of names to sort through. Dom Brown has to do a bit more for me to rank him this high and Drabek needs to pitch 150 innings or so with good numbers and he could be atop this list next year but its all specualtion at this point. D’Arnaud, Collier and Knapp have similar upsides for next year with continued success.

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  82. Hey gang,

    Don’t know if everyone saw this but thought it was timely. BA just put out their top 20 for the Hawaii league and our Phils had 3 of the top 10!! And interesting in this discussion (but definitely not swaying me from my Drabek vote) was that they had Dom Brown ranked the highest.

    4. Dominic Brown, of, Honolulu Sharks (Phillies)
    5. Kyle Drabek, rhp, Honolulu Sharks (Phillies)
    9. Michael Taylor, of, Honolulu Sharks (Phillies)

    Edited, full list removed for obvious reasons

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  83. Ever person on BA that has talked about the Phillies Prospects have put Brown ahead of all the others including players like Carrasco, Donald, and Marson. Most ppl dont count him as a top prospect because of how low in the minors he is. IMO the only reason Drabek is 1 spot lower than DB is because of injuries.

    My pick for #4 is Drabek,
    You have to put #1 starter potential ahead of a RFer.

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  85. Michael Taylor, it will be interesting to see what he does at Reading in 09.

    While Drabek has the potential to be a great starter, I want to see how he does in a full season in the minors in ’09 coming off his injury before I rank him in the top five.

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  89. I have to go with Drabek here, who has ace potential and seems to be fully healthy (knock on wood).

    A few thoughts (for those who care to read on): I agree with those who think Happ should be lower because his ceiling is lower. I just don’t see him being anything more than a #4 starter (in his best years). I’m also still a little skeptical of Taylor because the biggest adjustment for a college guy is the jump to AA ball (according to people like Keith Law). I hope he continues to do what he’s been doing, but I’m taking a wait-and-see approach. The news on Dom Brown is exciting. And I wouldn’t rule out D’Arnaud for the next slot. He had a heck of a year at a prime position. And he’s young.

    Still, I’m going with Drabek.

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  95. The expectations for HAPP have been too low, IMO.

    He will–I believe–be one of the most pleasing surprises this seaon–’09.

    I see him as our #3 starter with Blanton sitting at #4 with Moyer NOT resigned(TWO HIGH DRAFT PICKS!), I see Carrasco being very competitive in spring training for #5…if they don’t sign a free agent pitcher.

    Should they sign a better FA pitcher (righty), then IMO Myers becomes tradeable for a significant righty OFer to play LF.

    Lots of good manuevering to come.

    Nothing against Taylor or Drabek, but Happ is now MJL ready while they each are 1 or 2 years away. are still at least …though they both promise a lot.

    HAPP @ #4!

    The rotation (after a while–couple months): Hamels, Myers, Happ, Blanton, CARRASCO.

    For those doubters, take a GOOD look at Happ’s Ks/inning vs walks. He has been at or about 1 K per inning AND a lot fewer hits than innings pitched.

    Folkis, that is HIGH recommendation for him to keep on keeping on WITHIN the rotation…for success.

    His age is of little consequence: a good pitcher at 26 is as good as one at 25!

    As a lefty (highly prized) he fits well in the right/left rotation. And, IMO he picked up a lot of good stu7ff/knowledge/understanding of ML pitching while sitting next to Moyer in the last several weeks of the ’08 season.

    Absent any recurring arm/shoulder problems, he should do a lot better than people here suppose.

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  96. I know of another guy who was terrific in AAA, averaged more than 1 K per ip, AND had a lot fewer hits than innings pitched. He was even left-handed and is younger than HAPP.

    His name is R.J. Swindle and he just went to the Brewers as a rule-V pick. guess he should have been the Phillies #4 rated prospect before they let him get away?

    IMO Happ is much better than Swindle but my point is to illustrate the problem with going strictly by a player’s statistics without also evaluating their abilities.

    Happ had a good 2008 season but his abilities point to a bottom of the rotation pitcher, not a #3 starter.

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  99. I’m going to go out on a limb and say Zach Collier. Its a bit of a radical choice since he hasnt proved himself as much as some of the other contenders but I love the talent that he has to offer, and I see a lot of upside in him.

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  100. I vote Kyle Drabek. The case is easily made he has the most potential of any, and it all depends on what your definition of prospect is. As for the “not enough speed”crowd, if you bother to read the article up above it has reports from the Hawaii Winter League that has him consistently at 93-95 range.

    Though Happ has perhaps good control maybe that stuff when it is around the plate has a good likelihood to be hit a long way.

    I don’t see how Swindle was taken in the Rule 5 draft as the draft occurs on the last day of the winter meetings which is just about ready to start. Swindle was signed to a split contract as a free agent. Earlier reports said an MLB contract, but subsequent reports said split contract.

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  102. art d. thats what ive been saying about happ. if you watch him pitch he tantalizes batters with high faSTballs just enough off the plate that they cannot lay off.he heeds to further develop his breaking ball to be a very good pitcher, which i believe he will. andy petitte without the move. i disagree about moyer. i believe he will be back and pitching until proven otherwise. his ability and knowledge far outweighs a 5 mil salary.

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  104. Happ had a good season in the high minors and majors, and has several seasons in pro ball.

    It’s all about how you choose to rank prospects…some choose to rank primarily on upside, but I like more established prospects.

    I’m just as excited about Brown, Taylor, Drabek et. al as everyone else, but they are at this point less likely to reach the majors than Happ and 1-3 so far.

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  105. I’ll take Taylor, although it’s close between him, D’Arnaud and Brown.

    I’m a little surprised how many people rate Drabek in the top 4. He hasn’t actually done anything yet and this was his 3rd pro season. What can you point to to say he’s going to be an ace? I guess there’s a small chance he becomes one, but there’s an equally good chance he continues to have arm problems.

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  106. “I’ll go with Happ, edging Taylor. His minor league numbers suggest he probably should have been in the majors sooner than he made it, whether due to injury or oversight. I think he could be an okay third starter, or a good number four, and his risk is much lower than Taylor, Drabek, etc. since we’ve already seen him do it.”

    That was me at 9:30, so count me for Happ.

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  109. I already voted for Taylor (it registered as “Anonymous”), but I find it interesting that Happ is such a polarizing figure. There are some players that do not fit into an easy mold, which makes them difficult to evaluate, and Happ is one of those players. He’s one of those pitchers that you cannot fully evaluate with a radar gun. He is obviously very smart, pitches on a nice downward angle (or on an upward plan when he wants strikeouts), has a good assortment of pitches, and hides the ball well. One day I was listening to a morning radio show and the host said it best when he noted that, even though the radar guns says that Happ throws 88 or 89, it looks like he’s throwing 100 out there. He was exaggerating, but the point is well taken.

    I view Happ to be the kind of guy who could be a really nice number 3 starter, a guy who you can rely upon to win 12-17 games. And he’s just about a finished product. In case you haven’t noticed, guys like that get paid $10-13 milion a year when they are eligible for free agency, so he could be quite a bargain and a clearly legitimate choice to be included among the eam’s top 4-10 prospects.

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  111. Guys whatever happened to Mayberry? He looks like he can make the Phils platooning in the outfield. So if he is eligible then I vote for him. If not, Drabek as pitching > hitting.

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  117. Catch 22 f/k/a H Man – i agree mostly. don’t think that he will be a #3, but will be a service-able pitcher.

    but the point is that brown, taylor drabek are potential stars. taylor and brown should be in AA ball this year. drabek is further away, but he has such a high ceiling.

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  118. mike – i love knapp too. i agree with you fully on his potential. but he is really to green to be in the discussion at this point. he needs to produce at a full season level first. he mechanics are still raw and he can’t consistently hit the zone. but man does he have some gas.

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  121. Very difficult to put this next group in order. Again, have to balance the importance of potential (upside) and performance. With that said, and also considering the importance of pitching I think Drabek is the choice.

    4.Drabek
    5.Dom Brown
    6.Mike Taylor
    7.J.A. Happ
    8. Travis D’Arnaud

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  123. Michael Taylor.

    I find the J.A. Happ love puzzling. He’s 26 years old, and his BB/9 rate in the majors is a hair over 4. He could easily have a bad April and become a career minor leaguer. I’ll have him 10-20 range.

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  124. Answer: Swidle doesn’t have a 89-93 fast ball…and Happ does.

    His FB works very well because of his other assortment of pitchers which keep hitters off balance. That’s a quality you can take to the bank. His high strikeout rate (one per inn) is proof of that.

    He is 26, but would have been up before if his arm hadn’t caused hin problems and almost destroyed his chances. But he hing in there w encouragement from the coaches and had a terrific game approach when he was called up in the midst of the pennant fight.

    He accepted that LARGE challenge…and did very well…his contribution certainly added to the grasp of post season.

    I HONOR such players who have the character to come up BIG in these kind of challenges!

    And, I’m sure the Phils are counting on him being part of their rotation in ’09…IMO working his way to #3 on a L/R/L/R/R plan. The last R to be either Carrasco or a new guy signed/traded for.

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  129. Drabek. TJ surgery has become pedestrian, basically a function of time. By late summer he should be approaching lights out.

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  130. This Happ love is unreal.

    1st he doesn’t throw 93 and never has. He throws 87-90 and tops out at 91-92 maybe once a game at most.

    2nd he doesn’t project to be anything more than a 4/5, I don’t understand where these people saying he’ll be anything more than that are getting it from.

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  132. to b an opinion is only proven thru time, i just hope your not one of the guys who actually believed wagner was hitting 100 mph. radar guns are usually 3-5 mph off depending on what the team wants a crowd to believe. as ive said the only 2 guys ive ever throw 100 were n. ryan and b.feller.

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  133. 3-5 MPH is pushing it a bit John. Most guns aren’t that badly off as it would get out pretty quickly with the amount of scouts at a given game charting things. 2-3 MPH is a very hot gun.

    And Happ doesn’t throw 93.

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  136. Getting tired of the negs on Happ. First of all be glad you had a pitcher with his composure to pitch like he did down the stretch.

    For those that question his appearances remember that both his FLA ones were is relief.

    This is a stretch, and trust me I know I will hear about it, but think of a Tom Glavine but 4 years older. No he will not win 300 or 200. Probably alot less but back in 1987/88 the Braves rushed their starters. Happ 89-90 MPH Fastball, Good Changeup, Average to slightly below average Control, Average 3rd pitch. The big thing is watch him on the mound. With Hamels you can tell without watching a pitch that he is a man out there. With Happ you can see some, and I say some, of the same traits that Hamels has and the traits that Glavine had in is 7 and 17 second season.

    Yep, maybe I am reaching some, but remember that numbers do not tell the whole story and if the so called “experts” really new what they talking about they would be earning much more working for an organization not a publication. Trust what you see not just what you read plus almost every post here is what you read.

    Lastly for those that compare him to Kendrick. First off the Numbers do not lie here nor do your eyes. Kendrick was lucky last year and this year was what you can expect from starter with 2 average pitches that can not miss bats. Happ Misses bats but also the stike zone a little to much.

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  137. Sorry…Happ was rated at 92 mph TOPS a few pundits ago.

    It’s no big deal ifd it’s 92…is it?

    He may pitch at 88-89 mostly…bUT his top has been 92 (!) with his fastest.

    When reporters/scouts/pundits evaluayte pitchers they ALWAYS say that “he pitches within 88-89 AND TOPS OUT AT 92…if you notice.

    Go hang us for 1 MPH!

    Happ will be on the team for at least a year before either Drabek or Taylor join up to the big club.

    The LOVE for him is NOT misplaced.

    Question: where do you get your ability to diss a guy weho gave GREAT HELP to win the chase to the post season. I greatly respect that as part of his strong character (character counts..a lot..!!) as well as his physical talent/abilites.

    HAPP!!!!!

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  140. I vote for Michael Taylor here, with Happ sliding in just behind him at #5.

    To me, the possibility that Taylor could really be as good as the numbers he put up this year suggest outweighs Happ’s major-league readiness, because Happ’s ceiling is – best-case scenario – a #3 starter.

    For the other 3 in the discussion here, D’Arnaud and Drabek are too far down the pipeline for me (for now, but Drabek could change that if he puts up Cole Hamels numbers this year). And Brown is at the same position as Taylor, but has shown less power and is behind him (albeit with great bb/k numbers).

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  142. One Happ story you can check . The first batter he saw in the major was Jose Reyes .Reyes tried a mind game by pretending
    he was hit by a pitch and strutting around like a wounded pidgeon finally getting a blop single leading to a 3 run inning
    Jose came up again with two runners on thanks to a Jro
    error He struck the sob out to end the inning(at which point
    he should of been pulled (still rehabbing))
    that was june 30 or 31 the start of the reyes slump.
    Happ was guts if only eaton did

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  144. Alright, I wish I had posted this before the Hawaii Winter League piece came up, as it stole a bit of my thunder, but I am voting for Dominic Brown. My reasoning, as for all of my other choices, is that I prefer results over projections. My 5-10 picks will all be about future potential, but as of now, I like results. The next two in line for me are Drabek and Taylor. Drabek, while he has potential, as just about every single poster has pointed out, he also has a lot of negatives. While his results have been good, they have also been very limited. This is a 21 year old kid, about to enter his 4th season of pro ball, with one TJ surgery already in the books, and he has yet to pitch above A ball. That is a lot of bumps in the road. Next, is Taylor. Taylor, 23, played college ball, rather poorly, I might add, struggled for one year in A-, then blew up in A and A+. Basically, Taylor has been playing against similar competition for 5 years, and has finally put together one great season. After that much time, I would almost expect for him to put together a nice season. Now, do not get me wrong, I love both Drabek and Taylor. I see them both as very good prospects, I just happen to be pointing out only there negative qualities. I think putting Taylor in AA will answer so many questions about him, and I cannot wait to see the progress of Drabek. However, we also have Dominic sitting around, who, at 20, has already put together two complete seasons in the A- to A+ range. Combine that with all of the “tools” I have heard scouts rave about, and Brown is the number four prospect for me. I just hope others start to agree, so that I do not have to be voting for Brown until about the 8th or 9th pick.

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  146. Love the Happ story with Reyes but what you forgot to mention is that after that dramatic 1st inning confrontation, he proceeded to give up a blast to P. LoDuca!!! and than 1 batter later, another blast to Beltran followed by 2 more hits before finally getting out of the 1st inning.

    No doubt he was excited in his first big league start so lets not go overboard with playing up the whole nerves of steel angle.

    I hope that Happ has a long and successful Phillies career but he his not the next Glavine and he is not Cole Hamels light. He is a left-handed version of Joe Blanton, which isn’t all that bad at the back end of the rotation.

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  147. 3up3kkk
    Blast is a little strong LoDuca should of been on his arsh to establish that Happ wasnt going to take that BS. And his blast barely cleared. Blame that on your pitching coach and catcher
    Beltran is a player. Even at that first inning jitters!!
    To tell you the truth when he Kd Reyes I came out of my chair.
    Too bad Dubee tried to get one more inning out of him.
    Utimately I see Happ as an eighth inning guy. But you know they wont resign Meyers (12 Mil).
    The Moyer thing is puzzling unless they have a tacid agreement.

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  148. Dom Brown was voted over Taylor as a prospect in Hawaii because he led that league in hitting. I like Brown also but I love Taylor’s game. Its a good problem for us to have.

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  149. Really, the only reason Brown isn’t getting votes is because he somehow managed to fly under the radar for the entire year this year. Drabek got a lot of talk because he was a 1st round pick, Taylor got a lot of talk because of his gaudy numbers, and I really can’t remember the last time Brown’s name came up on this site. If Brown isn’t in the 4-6 range though, something’s gone horribly wrong IMO. I’m pretty sure all 5 of his tools grade out to plus or better.

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  150. 3up: Good comp, comparing Happ to Blanton. I agreee, if you mean upside. He might not be as good as Blanton, but at best he is Blanton as a lefty. High FB gets hitters swinging, but they can’t seem to catch up with it, regardless of the speed.

    One thing we don’t know is how hitters will adjust, given his limited repertoire. Hitters cannot adjust to a guy like Hamels and never will, because he has 3 or 4 quality pitches and you never know what is coming. They did adjust to Kendrick. Happ? Who knows? My guess is they wil adjust to some extent. Just not enough quality pitches there.

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  151. Happ is good, but we pretty much know what he is. It’s great to have a lefty #4/5 ready for your rotation, but to compare him to Glavine is a bit much, whereas mentioning Kendrick is an insult. He’s in my top 8 easily but Drabek could be all-star quality.

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  152. Diamond,

    As you alluded to, the only real issue with Happ is that he doesn’t have a plus pitch, which is why comparing him to a Glavine or Hamels, who both have dominating change-ups doesn’t wash.

    That’s not a knock on Happ as there are a number of ML pitchers who fit his description, including Blanton and Moyer.

    The reason I rate Drabek much higher is because he does have a plus pitch (actually 2), with a power curve-ball to go with a legit mid-90’s fastball.

    Will he turn those abilities into top of the rotation starter?? I don’t know but his natural talent can’t be taught and isn’t easily found..

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  154. “Really, the only reason Brown isn’t getting votes is because he somehow managed to fly under the radar for the entire year this year… If Brown isn’t in the 4-6 range though, something’s gone horribly wrong IMO. I’m pretty sure all 5 of his tools grade out to plus or better.”

    @ Ducky: I’ll agree that the borderline hysteria over Taylor, Marson and Donald dominated the site this season, but I feel like the regulars here have been aware of Brown’s big-time season in 2009. For what it’s worth, I rate Brown ahead of both Taylor and Drabek — but I’m not voting for him now because I have d’Arnaud ahead of all three of them. You’re right, though: Brown is a Top 5 prospect in this system, and it’ll be a crime if he falls any lower than 6 or 7.

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  155. happ is nothing at all like blanton. if happ had blantons curve he would be virtually unhittable.not knocking either guy but i hope happ does develop a deuce. by the way i wish amaro had shown a little more respect for burrell and moyer yesterday calling them ” the same bunch of caracters”. i understand negotiating ploys but amaros humility has never been his strong point.

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  156. I gotta go with Happ. I keep reading people say Drabeck followed by the words “he COULD be an all-star”. Happ will be in the show this year, either with the phillies or another team. Drabeck will start at clearwater, and we hope he will continue to improve. I much rather have a number 4/5 starter in the bigs then a low a ball pitcher this year. Bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

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  157. Drabek-the force is strong with this one. Mid 90’s heat with that curve would be a really nice righthand complement to Hamels as a future 1-2 punch. Some of that is wishful thinking but if the kid can stay healthy he’s a beast. There’s not enough of a track record to rank him ahead of Carrasco, Marson or Donald(yet) but based on ceiling he fits the #4 overall ranking

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  158. I voted for Taylor way up above, but a couple thoughts:

    –The Happ hype here is really a bit much. I like the guy and I think he’ll have a better MLB career than Kendrick–being able to strike out guys other than the pitcher is important–but if he’s ever more than your #4 starter, that’s probably an indication your team isn’t very good. I’m still not sure that he won’t settle into a multi-inning relief role down the line.

    –I gave some thought to Brown over Taylor, and was ultimately swayed by Taylor’s huge numbers this season. But Brown certainly could be the better player. His batting eye is tremendous, and my opinion is that’s where it all starts for hitters. His questions are power, as the BA chat (thanks for the link) notes, and defense–I remember being struck by how often I saw “E: Brown” in box scores last summer. But he’s probably my vote for #5, assuming Taylor wins the current vote. Drabek and D’Arnaud are worthy of consideration here as well.

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  159. I want to say D’Arnaud, but that would be wasting a vote. I think that Taylor hasen’t had the consistancy and Drabek is an injury risk, having said that on potential I like Drabek. He has the pedigree, arm strength to be a #2 (Way too hard to project him to overtake Cole). I like him over Taylor who I have seen lots of players like him (Golson the latest example) not pan out. If Drabek stays healthy I think his floor is a setup guy with his nasty two pitches.

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  161. “I gotta go with Happ. I keep reading people say Drabeck followed by the words “he COULD be an all-star”. Happ will be in the show this year, either with the phillies or another team. Drabeck will start at clearwater, and we hope he will continue to improve. I much rather have a number 4/5 starter in the bigs then a low a ball pitcher this year. Bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.”

    Following that logic, you then also like Bruntlett over Donald and Ruiz over Marson, correct?

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  163. Question: Why is d’Arnaud so heavily favored over someone like Naughton, when Naughton has shown he has the defensive prowess (the reason he made the mid-season All-star team was his CS %age), and he had a decent bat? Meanwhile, d’Arnaud appeared to struggle with the defensive end (which was supposed to be his strong point).

    Not meaning to ruffle any of the d’Arnaud fans’ feathers…just wondering why he’s top 10.

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  164. Umm . . . is there a disease going around that prevents the infected people from understanding the word “prospect”? By definition, it means someone who might be a major leaguer. And ranking the “prospects” is a process of voting on who people think will be the best major leaguer, usually thought of in terms of talent, skill and some performance track record that indicates the talent and skill will play well at the major league level.

    Or maybe you folks have lost your way. I recommend all of you to find your way back to the topic “Who is major league ready now” That’s in another area and you have lost your way and stumbled into this topic, which is ranking the “prospects.”

    Just trying to be helpful to those in distress. 🙂

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  165. Travis D’Arnaud doesn’t turn 20 until next February. Naughton had a good year, but he was repeating Lakewood at age 22. D’Arnaud had better offensive numbers across the board. Given his age, there’s not way scouts are going to be put off just because his defense hasn’t caught up to his offense just yet.

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  166. I have notice that more than one person has mention lack of defense on D’Arnaud. I really thought he was drafted for his defense, has he regrest that much.

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  167. lol there’s no such thing as regressing, it takes time to improve. Plus D’Arnaud’s D hasn’t been questioned by scouts, it’s people watching minor league box scores on here that have questioned it.

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  168. DD, thank you for the definition, however because catcher is such a crucial fielding position, I prioritize defense over the bat. Therefore, I would rank Naughton above d’Arnaud in terms of “who will be the best major leaguer.”

    My question was not what makes a prospect a prospect, it was what makes d’Arnaud stand out over Naughton, aside from age. Mike mike’s comment of concern over the defense is exactly why I take issue with d’Arnaud being ranked so highly.

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  169. ps (and sorry for the double post) – Some of us made it out to games this year, B. I watched both Naughton and d’Arnaud behind the plate.

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  172. D’Arnaud is very good defensively. He gets a bad rap for his passed ball count but the 3 games I saw him play he probably saved a half dozen wild pitches.

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  173. Defense is important for a catcher but any position player has to be able to produce something with the bat to remain an everyday player.

    While Naughton has shown good defensive abiltiies he hasn’t shown enough with the bat, putting up an OPS under .700 at every level.

    Meanwhile D’Arnaud has produced an OPS over .800 SS ball and also in limited time in the sally league at 19… Since Naughton has been catching professionally for a few more seasons it shouldn’t be a surprise that he is ahead defensively. Unfortunately, he is way behind offensively already…

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  174. I hate having to argue about which of our multiple catching prospects is better…damn the Phillies for being deep at this position…DAMN THEM!

    Seriously though, this is fun wot?

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  175. Much better to be arguing about which prospect is better vs. arguing about which ones are wasting space, thats for sure…

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  176. Part of ranking prospects has to do with the liklihood they will reach their potential, so there’s no disease going around that is causing some people to weigh probable chance of making a contribution more than others. If we were supposed to rank on talent and skill alone Hewitt would have to have appeared in the conversation at some point by now. There are a lot of people voting for Drabek and a lot voting for Happ. Those voting for Drabek are putting a great deal of stock in his upside, which is fine, but he also has a much lower chance of helping in the majors than Happ, because JA is already there, and shown he can get outs. So that has to affect the ranking.

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  177. As for me Happ is the number two pitcher on the team,
    Moyer is gone for now. Myers allowed 27 runs in his last
    20 inning and i would like to see Blanton report in decent shape.
    So I made Happ a topper

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  178. I looked at Drabek’s stuff right now versus Happ’s stuff right now. Drabek has much better stuff and he’s younger. Happ is a back of the rotation type of guy which is nice to have. Drabek is a potential AS.

    Happ as a #2 is a scary thought.

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  179. great thing about cherry-picking numbers is that you can show anything.

    Myers gave up 16 runs in his last 2 starts, covering 8.1 innings. Before that, he threw a complete game 2-hitter against the Brewers and an 8-inning shutout against the Mets…

    Note: Myers had more wins in this year’s post season than Happ has in his ML career. We know you are a big Happ fan but lets try to stay realistic..

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  180. Chris: my post was not directed to you. I was joining with 3up in questioning the rating of prospects based on simple proximity to majors with little or no consideration of ceiling. I would agree with 3up, that based on that view, and there have been a few posts expressing similar views, Jaramillo is a better prospect than D’Arnaud.

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  183. Drabek hasn’t gone through the post-TJ dead-arm period yet. Until then, I can’t see voting for him as if he’s fully healthy.

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  185. It looks like Kenny Williams got less for Vazquez than he did for me, and I don’t even have a labrum in my right arm anymore.

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  186. Dominican Winter League

    Gigantes 5, Aguilas 2
    Phillies prospect Antonio Bastardo outdueled the Indians’ Fausto Carmona as the first-place Gigantes topped the Aguilas. Bastardo allowed two runs on seven hits and a walk with two strikeouts in 6 1/3 innings to pick up his second straight win. Padres farmhand Will Venable went 2-for-2 with a solo homer and free agent

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  189. Well, people want to come on here and deride what the White Sox got for Javier Vazquez, though they make a big deal over the batting average of Jason Donald in the Arizona Fall League. And that Donald was 2nd in average, Well the White Sox got the player who was 1st in BA in the Arizona Fall League, Tyler Flowers, and a catcher at that.

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