Brown, Drabek and Taylor make the Hawaii Top 20

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Baseball America has its Top 20 up for Hawaii Winter Baseball, with Brown coming in at #4, Drabek coming in at #5 and Taylor coming in at #9.

Lithe and athletic, Brown flashed all five tools, including a plus arm. Scouts are divided over how much power he’ll have in the long run, which will determine his ultimate ceiling. One called his high-elbow setup at the plate “funky”, and he’s a long-strider, which could lead to timing issues. But his buggy-whip swing produces the bat speed to produce power when married to his excellent pitch recognition.

His stuff remains plus-plus, with a fastball sitting at 93-95 mph and a hammer breaking ball, a hard-breaking power curve with late movement. Drabek also is making progress with a changeup and competed well in Hawaii. Maturity has been an issue, and Drabek took his lone defeat—he gave up a game-winning homer to Marquez Smith in the season’s final game—hard. But managers and scouts said he comported himself as a professional in Hawaii.

….scouts agree he was better than his numbers in Hawaii. He showed off his light-tower power with a homer off an actual light tower at Les Murakami Stadium, controlled the strike zone and made hard contact all fall.

You can read the full blurbs on all three guys here.

41 thoughts on “Brown, Drabek and Taylor make the Hawaii Top 20”

  1. The thing about Michael Taylor’s time in Hawaii is that, despite the low average, of the 64 outs he made, only 11 were K’s. He also walked more than he struck out (12BB, 11K). I can’t find the number’s, but I’d love to see his Flyout to ground out ratio. I’m guessing he hit a bunch of liners right at people.

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  2. great to see. making me re-think my prior order of taylor, brown and drabek. i might swap brown and taylor. i love drabek too. but he needs to do it for a full year for me.

    i might be under estimating brown. looks like he is the real deal!

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  3. Thanks for passing along the info — seems like good news on all fronts.

    The power issue with Brown is really the only cause for concern right now (and, consequently, it’s why I’ve put d’Arnaud ahead of Brown in the voting). That being said, his ISO bumped from .105 last year to .126 this year — and even more encouraging, it was .160 for the months of July and August (and this was after coming off a separated shoulder, mind you). If he can maintain his plate discipline and grow into a bit more power each year, he could be a Top 100 prospect this time next year.

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  4. Drabek gave up that two run homer in Hawaii trying to protect a one run lead with two outs in the top of the 9th He had a 1-2 count on the hitter. But that outing should do more for his developement than had he struck out the guy to end the game which would have qualified his team for the Championship game. I’ll never forget Gillick and his entourage following Hamels around farm system during the early weeks of the 06 season before Cole was recalled just wanting to see him struggle one time to see how he would react. The problem was he never did. In Drabek’s case he did come back to get the next batter on a 3-1 ground out to end the inning.

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  6. Glad to hear Taylor was pounding the ball. Glad to hear Drabek at 93-95. I saw 90-92 reported in other articles.

    Will Taylor and Brown be a 1-2 punch in AFL next Fall? Very likely, IMO. Also Drabek.

    Hard to pick between Brown vs. Taylor and Drabek vs. Carrasco. I guess we’ll be forced to find playing time for all of them in a couple years. Terrible problem to have.

    Geez. Those four guys and toss in Marson and Donald, and that’s almost 1/4 of our future team–very talented and cheap. Major excitement, man. Have we ever had an imminent talent flow this exciting in recent memory?

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  7. I can see why people are moving Brown ahead of Taylor. I know the top 3 are set but we have a great 4-5-6 on our hands.

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  8. If Brownand Taylor both knock down the door to the majors in the next year or two, Werth or Vic can be used to acquire a missing piece–and we will still have Berry for CF depth.

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  9. Okay, looks like things are progressing well on that front.
    BA also has a nice article on the averages in the Arizona
    Fall League as compared to League norms. Donald came in 2nd to catching prospect Tyler Flowers. The players were rated on a % basis as compared to the League and , of course, Donald was one in excess of 100. Marson , was something like 18th, and also above 100. Slayden was
    like, 38th, while Berry was down the list and about 80%
    of league average, Gosewisch was toward the back of the list at about 50% of league average. Might be slightly off
    on some of the numbers, but it would be good if somebody
    wanted to look it up.

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  10. Replete with good news:

    Berry had a good winter season…BUT he still doesn’t seem able to grab walks which is a MUST for non-power spray hitters with speed. Also, he needs to spend time with the Phils’ baserunning coaches to have at least a 75% rate of success…which showed poorly in winter bal,l and make his ability to steal bases an effective part of his game.

    I assume (?) that he has the goods for CF. When he gets that OBA up, he will be a real candidate for the OF…and MAYBE a leadoff guy….to join the team to supplement Vic.

    Hawaii and AFL baseball really showed the benefit of better drafting AND coaching.

    And, Savery IMO will have a really good season and leap ahead of others come ’09s end.

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  11. PP Fan: Didn’t make it but followed the game on Gameday. Almost fell off my rocker when that home run sign came up on the screen. Was ready to declare Drabek the next Hamels. Hope to spend March in Clearwater though.

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  14. That’s what I like about baseball. It’s on field season never ends. Arizona and Hawaii are done but the Caribbean leagues are just in mid season and Australia is just starting. Are the Phils going to let Bastardo and Carrasco soldier on for the homelands or will they shut them down to get ready for Clearwater. Over in Australia the national tournament which runs until the end of Jan. starts tomorrow. Phils prospects will be playing for 4 of the 5 teams in the tourney. Harman, for Victoria; Naughton and Drew Naylor for Queensland; Tim Kennelly for Perth and Roeger for South Australia. Then just before and during ST the ever popular WBC will be in full swing.

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  15. It strikes me that at least 6 Phillies have at least a marginal shot at the BA Top 100 list – Carrasco, Donald, Marson, Brown, Taylor and Drabek. I suspect we’ll get 4 and Donald and Drabek will be left off.

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  16. I hereby appoint Davey Lopes as Berry’s rabii!!!
    Some guys get better after surgery to the point pitchers were having it done for only that reason. Therefore i believe we havent even seen the tip of iceburg Drabek
    I have set up a little chair in the outfield waiting for DB and
    MT. Please Mr. Amaro dont screw this up. I am so tired of the
    Phils buying from Goodwill

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  17. Here is John Manuel’s chat from Hawaii League.

    Q: Cape from Dade City, FL asks:
    I went to high school with domonic brown of the phillies and we grew up together. Whats your take on him as an up and coming prospect?
    A:

    John Manuel: Dominic Brown is surging up the prospect charts, if he wasn’t already. He’s athletic, he’s got a chance to have all five tools, he’s young and he keeps producing. The Dom Brown trends are up. I’m working on our Phillies top 30 right now and he’s way up the list, with what he did in Hawaii helping that cause a great deal. I know his Phils teammate, Michael Taylor, made the SAL list over him but Brown out-performed him in Hawaii, he’s younger and probably has a bit more upside. Taylor also impressed in Hawaii, despite hitting .247.

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  19. Is it wrong to get excited about Kyle Drabek? I mean like really excited? His stuff screams #1/#2 starter. Between him, Carrasco, and Hamels, we could have a dominant pitching staff for the next 10 years if its plays out right.

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  20. ****The thing about Michael Taylor’s time in Hawaii is that, despite the low average, of the 64 outs he made, only 11 were K’s. He also walked more than he struck out (12BB, 11K). I can’t find the number’s, but I’d love to see his Flyout to ground out ratio. I’m guessing he hit a bunch of liners right at people.****

    Didn’t we have an interview with M. Taylor posted where he discussed that his #1 goal in the HWL was to work on making contact and ignore the result as long as he put the bat on the ball.? The above stat would fit perfectly with that goal on his part. I can’t wait to see what he does at Reading next year…that’s his real test.

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  21. Hey guys, I don’t know about you but reading that chat, I am freaking pumped up about our minor league system. Drabek has number 1 stuff? Taylor a power hitting corner OF? Brown with another Strawberry comp? Freaking awesome.

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  23. What is impressive about Brown is he did well exposed to Asian pitchers in Paradise
    Kala Ka’aihue ‘s blog opened my eyes to that fact

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  24. No. Unfortunately not. Unless Ruben has something crazy up his sleeve this isn’t a good start to his reign. Those two draft picks we lost are going to drive everyone nuts, especially when we forfeit our first rounder for a middle reliever.

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  25. We actually have 5 or 6 legit MLB players in our Minor league system with Carrasco, Drabek, Donald, Marson & either Taylor/Brown. Happ is still “technically” a prospect and then we have guys in the low minors that are exciting too like D’Arnaud (my personal favorite) and Galvis (who’s got a decent shot just off his glove).

    When’s the last time that happened?

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  26. Ya, I don’t want to talk about the arby process so far. Amaro better have something amazing planned for that money it wasn’t worth the slight risk of them agreeing to arby to lose it.

    However, as a point of reference I couldn’t find much info on Wikipedia or the Hawaii Winter Baseball site on the competitiveness/structure of the league. To have three in the top ten is obviously great for the system but I was trying to put some perspective on it. Does anyone have any information?

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  28. I’m a bit hesitant to believe in the ’93-95 mph’ quote. I can believe he max’s in the range, but if the scouting reports on Brett Myers when he was in the minors tought us anything, its beware the inflated radar gun readings.

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  29. Oh merd that was he thinking .So the worse that can happen is you overpay Burrell and Mover for one year and that is the worse. how much are high draft picks worth. This might be my
    worsest,scariest, nightmare ever.
    Bill Giles drove me away once now……..help Iam falling

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  30. I don’t want to go into the arby thing too much since this is about our 3 in hawai, but although i am annoyed buy it also this is not just a thing with amaro this year the economy has alot of gm’s worried it appears as other big names were not offer arb. either guys like Furcal, Dunn, Abreau. So this is not limited to the phillies.

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  32. More teams are shying away from high priced free agents and relying on their farm systems to reload. Nice to know the Phils have the two best young pitchers in the VWL and DWL. After last night Bastardo now has the lowest WHIP and second lowest ERA of all starters in the DWL. Carrasco is third in WHIP and fourth in ERA in the VWL and the best among starters under 22. Brown won the HWB batting crown and Donald came in second in hitting in the AFL. One organization can’t do much better than that!

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  33. Good to read that Joel Naughton got off to a good start in the Aussie national tournament going 2 for 5 with a homer. His Queensland team defeated defending champion Perth 8-2 to open the Showcase portion of the two month long down under tourney. Would like to see Naughton be one of the catcher for the Aussie in the WBC. Always a shortage of lefthanded hitting catchers with good defensive skills and some pop.
    http://www.baseball.com.au/?page=48873&format=

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  34. besides the past few months it seems like all of us forgot about drabek. The guy only fell to us in the draft because of a bad attitude, not because he wasn’t good enough. He will be our top prospect this time next year, easily.

    MiLB.com ranked sweet lou the #43 prospect in baseball. Carrasco is surely ahead of him, though it has yet to be announced. Not bad.

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  38. Another little prospect tidbit. MiLB.com is doing their top 50 prospects in the minors. They’ve done 50-30 and Lou Marson showed up at number 44 (I’m a bit surprised he’s that high but some more good news for us). Here’s what they had on him:
    ########
    Statistically speaking: Marson’s .433 on-base percentage not only led the Phillies organization, it also led the Eastern League and all Double-A circuits in 2008. His OBP also ranked sixth among full-season hitters.
    Scouting report: An athletic backstop who can hit for average and knows how to get on base. He has some extra-base power, but it’s not a strength. His quick release and accurate arm enable him to throw runners out. Also has off-the-charts makeup and handles a staff well.

    Upside potential: Everyday catcher in the big leagues.

    They said it: “I saw him when he was a rookie. When he first signed, he was 17 years old out of Arizona. I liked him then and he’s going to be a good player. He’s got big hands and he can throw and he can handle the mitt. There’s no reason why he can’t be a good catcher.” — Phillies manager Charlie Manuel

    He said it: “It was great for me to be around the guys and see how they go about their business in a pennant race and what they do every day and how they prepare — everything like that. Just watching guys play helps me a lot.” — Marson on his big-league callup

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  40. Yes, Lou Marson is looking up. Now, given the surplus of catchers on the 40 man roster, it may be in the plans to non-tender C. Coste and/or the once and/or currently over-rated J. Jaramillo on the deadline day for tendering contracts for next season, which, I believe, is around December 14.

    Now, as to those propagating the notiion that the non-tender of Moyer, Burrell, et al. was not the best. nee, the only decision, you are Way off. Arbitration is not presided over by the local chapter of fan-boys for truth, it is presided over by professional labor arbitrators likely trained by the U.S. Department of Labor. They award by production, which, in baseball is expressed in stats, and may be unacquainted with any other factors. Statistically Moyer would be one of the top pitchers in baseball, and I say he would get around $16 million a year. Burrell, who made $14 million last season, and also had good stats, woukl also get around $16 million a year. So, you pay out $32 million a year before any of the non-free agemt arbitrations take place, and you have not changed or improved the team one iota. And I guarantee they would accept those awards as they far exceed what they would get on an annual basis anywhere else. Don’t believe it? Wait and see what they get per year when the process is over.

    Really the only option.

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  41. The benefits of having Gillick as GM is starting to show in all areas. Lets see how Amaro puts his stamp on the organization

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