Reader Top 30; #2

2009 Reader Top 30

Lots of participation for #1, I hope that it continues as we move through the Top 30. There were 117 votes cast, and the breakdown was

Carrasco: 52
Marson: 47
Donald: 11
Drabek: 4
Happ: 2
Taylor: 1

So then, Carlos Carrasco is the Readers’ #1 pick. He obviously cannot be selected in future polls. When voting for #2, you can vote for any eligible player, the same process as day one.

01. Carlos Carrasco, RHP
02.

151 thoughts on “Reader Top 30; #2”

  13. I think Marson should go here but Happ needs to be up near the top since he is pretty much a sure thing now while alot of these kids are still a maybe.

    #2- Marson

    Like

  19. Michael Taylor. Monster who has tools out the wazoo and is turning them into skills. He does it at Reading this year, look out.

    Like

  31. Jason Donald.

    Tough call between the two, but my reasoning is that Jason Donald is MLB-ready and could theoretically be a starting SS now.

    Like

  37. I’ll go with Marson, because of his position, although I think Donald would be a fine choice here. I was also tempted to go with Drabek because of his super high ceiling and his impressive (so far) recovery from TJ. But I’ll go with Sweet Lou.

    Like

  48. Marson.

    While i agree with the argument that “Donald is ready now” – I don’t see this list as a who-could-be-on-the-phillies- tomorrow list, I see this as who-has-the-greatest-potential-value list…and that’s hands-down Marson (vs. Donald and the rest). Its less obvious in Marson vs. Carrasco.

    Like

  49. Marson, hands down.

    I think the real fun starts slotting Donald, Drabek, Happ and Taylor in the #3-6 range. I’m looking forward to that debate.

    Like

  50. ryan if you see this as a who has the greatest potential its obviously donald. the phillies has a crying need for a 3rd baseman for the next ten years, but not for catcher. dont get me wrong i love marson but ruiz had a way below year last year. i would rather have donald and ruiz than marson and feliz.

    Like

  51. Marson. I don’t think that Happ should be considered a prospect anymore. He’s established himself as a promising pitcher in the majors already.

    Like

  52. Marson, of course, but Donal is right there with him.Either one could pull away from the other under the influence of those mysterious forces that make one player struggle or stay average in the majors and another to get even better.

    Like

  55. I’m not sure the obvious choice is Donald. I won’t deny his athletic ability or skill, but we haven’t seen him in a lot of action at 3B yet. He’s a natural SS and therefore that’s where his greatest value is, not 2B and not 3B (not yet at least). That being said, the Phillies already have a two-time golden glover at SS.

    Marson, however, is a great value at the position he currently plays and would play in the phillies system at said position. Add to that that he’s an option for an offensive substitution with good defensive skills, and he + Ruiz make a great catching team.

    Like

  58. Marson. I guess we’ll have the discussion about Drabek’s upside when we get to around #4 or 5 on this list, but his k totals (pre and post-TJ surgery) make me nervous about his upside. It is possible that he isn’t throwing too many breaking balls coming back from TJ surgery but I haven’t seen reports that he is limited in any way. That and he has taken some velocity off of his fastball in order to have more command – a good move but limiting his overall upside.

    Like

  59. Marson.

    Interesting that not one person has mentioned Savery, despite the fact that on last year’s lists, pp had him 4th, readers 3rd, BA 3rd, and Goldstein 2nd — and that was with Cardenas still in the system and ahead of Savery on every list except Goldstein. Take out Cardenas and Savery was the consensus 2nd (or 3rd) best prospect in our system.

    Savery was inconsistent last year but his year was pretty solid overall. Maybe it’s just a reflection of how much progress the Marson’s, Donald’s, and Taylor’s of the world have made. (But Happ — seriously? I hope a #5 starter with the “upside” of a #4 is not our 1st or 2nd or even 5th best prospect)

    Like

  64. Rod Booker – Happ’s ceiling is what #3/#4 which he is surely to become a #4. I don’t think he’ll be great but adequate while we have no idea if any of these prospects can handle MLB level playing. Carpenter cannot even handle AA.

    Like

  66. I think d’Arnaud is a better prospect than Marson and is progressing at the same pace but Marson is ready now so I will have to give him a vote.

    Marson.

    Like

  70. I haven’t seen Marson, but I have seen d’Arnaud, and while his bat was pretty good in Lakewood, his defense was not (really not). For someone who was touted as a defensive catching prospect…well, lets just say i hope it wasn’t representative of his skill level.

    Like

  71. Ryan, I don’t think anyone is saying that SS is not the position where Donald has the most value. 2B would be next. But obviously he is blocked. In trade, his value would be based on these positions.

    But his value to Phils is that he is a good athlete, with good hands and feet and a solid throwing arm and can fill 3B for them until the prototype 3B comes along. In addition to projection as a good fielder there, he is a prototype #2 hole hitter, with moderate power, great OBP, good doubles/gap power, can hit in situations, smart, etc. If he hits over .300 in 2009 or 2010, you can move Vic to #7, or if Marson hits great, to #8. What kind of sick lineup has Vic hitting in the 8 hole?

    Donald has plenty of value at 3B to Phils and fits team needs well. I think if they re-sign Burrell, they may need a hitter like him more than a masher.

    Like

  72. the difference between playing 3rd and ss. as ive said if you can play ss you can play 3rd.ss is easily the hardest if position. ss more range, same strenght in arm, avoiding incoming baserunners.3rd the only transistion is charging a bunt or slow hit roller. thats why if donald is a as. at ss hell be equally as good if not better at 3rd.your best atheletes are almost always at ss and cf.

    Like

  73. I want to start the campaign for Drabek at #3 here. I love Donald and hope he gets a good look at the beginning of the year before Utley and Feliz are ready. However, Drabek could be special, and his early returns from surgery this year looked AWESOME. Donald profiles generally as league average, which don’t get me wrong, I’d love to have at 3B, but Drabek really has limitless potential and is still very young.

    Like

  74. Since I am not sure how to relate to an over .400 average in the Arizona Fall Instructional League, and since Marson appeared to be as good a hitter as Donald at AA last year and since he is a catcher and since I voted for him as #1 yesterday, I will vote for him today as #2. Incidentally, why is the clock on this website still on Daylight Savings Time?

    Like

  75. To me second base if you bobble you still can get him and at third you are up a lot and can still bobble and get a runner but shortstop if he is fast it can be right at you and a little hestiant and he is safe any bobble and he is safe agree the hardest by far,

    Like

  76. Marson, but i think Donald is gonna be with the club most of the year. I think he shows alot when he fills in for utley. When Utley returns, i think they send him to AAA to work at third base. Rememeber this is feliz final year.

    Like

  77. I would put my rebuttal [here], but I think the discussion has spiraled from my orginial point – which I feel has been misunderstood.

    I am not saying Donald has no value. I am simply arguing that Donald being ready right now doesn’t put him ahead of Marson, because that readiness (in my opinion) isn’t the most important part of a player’s value. I think Donald is a tremendous talent, and should be fit into the Phils lineup somehow, someday. I just think that Marson will be better at his position.

    Like

  78. I’ll go with Marson as well. D’Arnaud (just to keep it among the catchers) certainly might have more upside and have a better career, but Marson looks like he could be a league-average or better MLB catcher next season, and a marginal all-star for a long time thereafter.

    Like

  79. Just tried to post, but it got eaten I guess.

    The gist of it was that Marson is my pick at #2. D’Arnaud might have more upside and could have a better career, but Lou’s production and proximity combine to make him the clearly better prospect right now.

    Like

  80. Marson. (This is my third attempt to post this.) D’Arnaud might have more upside and could have a better career, but Lou’s production and proximity to big-league readiness make him the better prospect right now.

    Like

  82. Apologies for the extra posts–I think the problem is a time thing. My posts are showing up above the “most recent,” I believe because my computer says it’s 1.38 right now, while the “most recent” are 2.09 and 2.12.

    Those guys are posting from the future!

    Like

  87. The Legend of Lou continues to grow. Though he was available only for about 1/3 the AFL season and appeared in but 11 games, he led all catchers with 3 triples and was second overall in the league in triples trailing the AFL leader by one .

    Like

  90. Danny(Philly): What do you think of Dominick Brown?

    SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:34 PM ET ) Best prospect in the Phillies system.

    Danny(Philly): How encouraging was it the way Kyle Drabek pitched at the end of the season and in the Hawaii Winter League?

    SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:36 PM ET ) Very encouraging. He’s showing why he was a first-round pick and he’s bouncing back nicely from Tommy John surgery.

    Like

  95. I don’t know how, but d-brown slipped my mind, even after his HWB hitting title. Thanks for the reminder PB. Still, Marson at 2 for me.

    Like

  96. Can we all agree for the young pitchers to advance Moyer has to be resigned. I am not a Dubee fan
    My pick was Marson and Moyer will be a help there too.

    Like

  97. How long has it been since we have had a couple prospects in fall leagues actually accelerate their progress with stellar play. Brown and Donald really capped of great years and allow the Phils to be aggressive with them.

    On the flip side, decent fall performance, such as Berry’s .300+, should not be taken seriously. Too many .350+ hitters for that to have any sigificance. And pitchers were not really great, other than Hanson and a few others.

    Like

  100. Not to say that these polls are not a welcome exercise and diversion from the boring off-season. Hmm . . . are we in for a Ruben Amaro mega-surprise blockbuster?

    Like

  101. off topic, but i already voted for marson #1, so my vote is obvious.

    good article on mayberry and Amaro here
    http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/story/11132926

    here is a summary of his point:

    “The feeling was that you can almost find speed more easily than you can find power,” Amaro says of the Phillies’ thinking. “That was the basis for one of the reasons behind the trade.

    “Here were two guys with potential upside, but in our organization, at the upper levels (of the minors), we don’t have as much power, period. So we decided to take a shot with a guy with power potential. What the upside is, it depends on John’s development.”

    Like

  107. Lou Marson, not sure he’ll make the show this coming season but is going to a better then average catcher.

    Like

  114. Jason Donald.

    Someone in the last thread defended Marson by mentioning Joe Mauer’s relative lack of power. Mauer’s minor league career batting average was also 50 points higher. I really can’t see rating a prospect with a sub .400 slugging percentage this highly.

    Like

  119. Happ was my #1 so He stays as my #2.

    Also to Glen. Although it is a small sample take a look at what Happ did in the show. I think it was much more then what a #5 is. He was a rookie. Thrown into a pressure situation. Not saying he will be a solid 3 or even more. But when I think of a #5 I think of the following… The crap Washington throws out there, Eaton, Kendrick, 3 of the Pittsburgh staff. Go back and watch Happ’s windup and motion. It is smooth. He knows what he is doing, is composed and I think in 2010 there will be very many happy Phillies fans.

    Like

  121. Nice article in fact Bastardo has given up only 11 hits in 22 innings
    Something WAS rotten in Reading!
    good luck to the young man

    Like

  122. Happ, for his 151:48 K:BB ratio in 135 IP at AAA. He’s left handed and has had major league success. In his minor league career he has more Ks and less hits than innings pitched. with a 3.34 ERA. Donald and Marson are good prospects, but since neither was that highly touted a year ago, I want to see them have success at AAA before putting them ahead of Happ. As I recall Happ’s stock was pretty high after his AA year. His first season at AAA he pitched hurt, before having an oustanding year last season.

    Like

  124. Ken
    You are right on about Happ and may I add he has never had the support of upper management. So add mental toughness
    to his package. Modern players have trouble hitting high ball
    pitchers. Happ keeps the ball in the air but doesnt allow a lot of home runs. In this short outfield that is a plus no matter
    what Ed Wade thinks

    Like

  125. “Marson has no power”

    He had enough to hit one out during his only big league game so far.

    Honestly, I don’t care if he’s “just” a doubles hitter, I think he has shown 3 seasons of clear improvement and will be an asset on offense.

    Like

  127. Agree, Sam. Actually Marson has a powerful physique and hits the ball extremely hard. If he had a different swing, he might be hitting 25 HRs. I think he will be somewhere between a 15 and 20 HR guy at CBP. This power argument is not based in reality, just on the assumption that his line drive hitting means he has no power. Faulty assumption.

    Like

  128. there is something great about bastardo. i am not a scout. don’t pretend to have a professional scouting eye. but this guy just makes people miss the ball. and really, is there anything more important for a pitcher? he seems healthy and fully recovered from whatever mystery injury he had. he might not throw mid-90’s, but he misses bats. he has given up only 11 hits in 22 innings this winter. that is extremely impressive. i know james will point to his weak ground out ratio and high home run ratio, but he isn’t giving up many hits, so those homers are coming with no one on.

    there really is something about this guy. he seems to know how to pitch and get people out. i think that he is really under rated by the readers of this blog. scouts must like him to put him on the international squad for the futures game last year. this could be a break out year for him. he could be a real sleeper.

    Like

  129. bret – you are missing the point if you are focusing on marson’s lack of home runs. baseball is about statistics and thus standard deviation for a position. catchers that can get on base at a much higher rate, thus several standard deviations from the mean are extremely valuable and rare. as pointed out above, maur is the premium example. everyone loves the long ball. we are all fans. but that is not a way to judge a prospect’s worth at the catcher position. there are more than one way to produce runs, and a high ob% is just as valuable. especially coming from a position like catcher.

    don’t get me wrong. i love taylor. he is my #3 prospect. but prospects like taylor are not rare. most organizations have at least 1 guy like him. only 2-3 organizations have premium hitting catchers, who get on base like marson does and can play very good defense.

    the rareness of marson’s stats for his position is what makes him so valuable. if he was doing this as an outfielder, then i would totally agree with you.

    Like

  131. Sweet Lou is #2!!

    Great news on Bastardo. He sure looks like a likely big league pitcher although probably out of the pen. We can’t have too many arms.

    Like

  133. Agree you can’t have too many arms. Luckily, we have lots of candidates for depth. Not all are likely to be healthy or become consistent enough to help, but it’s a pretty big list of guys with potential:

    Zagurski, Bisenius, Overholt, Bastardo, maybe Matt Smith, Mathieson for the pen.

    Happ, Carpenter, Carrasco for the rotation.

    Most of those are iffy, but in pure numbers a bit better than we have had in recent years, when we have had to bring up 30-yr-old AAAA guys.

    Like

  134. My vote is for Donald.

    Doing a survey of people’s opinions on who is the best prospect is very subjective and subject to a tremendous amount of bias. Everyone’s opinion is infused with all of their own prejudice. One person believes that a catcher is most valuable because of the position another says that pitchers are more valuable. There is one way to determine the best prospects to us a method that is objective and not subject to bias. That method is to use the prospects performance to determine their value. This is how every person’s job in America is evaluated. No company bases their employee’s value on potential but previous performance.

    This method will take into consideration the player entire performance history and evaluate it on a basis of a normal baseball season. You do not pick and chose which information to be included in order for it to unbiased. With that in mind I have taken the information on the Phyllis top prospects and compared their performance to existing Phyllis Major League players. The average season for a Major League starter is approximately 600 at bats. For a Major League starting pitcher it is approximately 190 innings pitched. I have taken all of the performance information on each prospect from the time he graduated high school to the present including college statistics. After I present this information analysis I will express my subjective opinion which is also biased just like others are.

    Player – AB – R – H – 2B – 3B – HR – RBI – SB – CS – BB – SO – HBP – IBB – SH – SF – DP – AVG – OBP – SLG – OPS
    Donald – 600 – 109 – 186 – 39 – 8 – 17 – 95 – 15 – 8 – 66 – 136 – 20 – 1 – 5 – 5 – 9 – .309 – .396 – .486 – .882
    Utley – 600 – 111 – 179 – 38 – 3 – 26 – 103 – 18 – 6 – 58 – 105 – 16 – 4 – 0 – 8 – 2 – .299 – .376 – .505 – .881
    Marson – 600 – 91 – 165 – 31 – 5 – 11 – 82 – 6 – 2 – 90 – 130 – 5 – 2 – 4 – 5 – 20 – .275 – .375 – .398 – .773
    Ruiz – 600 – 76 – 167 – 34 – 6 – 15 – 82 – 9 – 7 – 41 – 64 – 11 – 1 – 2 – 6 – 22 – .278 – .336 – .428 – .764
    Jaramillo – 600 – 79 – 176 – 34 – 3 – 13 – 86 – 1 – 2 – 64 – 98 – 5 – 3 – 3 – 7 – 21 – .293 – .366 – .422 – .788

    Player – W – L – ERA – G – GS – CG – SH – GF – SV – IP – H – R – ER – HR – BB – SO – WP – BK – H9 – HR9 – BB9 – K9 – WHIP
    Carrasco – 13 – 12 – 3.93 – 35 – 34 – 2 – 1 – 0 – 0 – 190 – 173 – 94 – 83 – 19 – 79 – 168 – 10 – 0 – 8.2 – .9 – 3.7 – 7.9 – 1.32
    Happ – 11 – 10 – 3.20 – 38 – 32 – 3 – 1 – 0 – 1 – 190 – 164 – 84 – 68 – 14 – 75 – 201 – 7 – 0 – 7.8 – .6 – 3.5 – 9.5 – 1.26
    Kendrick – 9 – 15 – 4.28 – 34 – 32 – 1 – 0 – 0 – 0 – 190 – 207 – 111 – 91 – 16 – 59 – 133 – 4 – 0 – 9.7 – .7 – 2.8 – 6.3 – 1.39
    Hamels – 13 – 4 – 1.43 – 34 – 34 – 2 – 2 – 0 – 0 – 190 – 111 – 38 – 30 – 3 – 70 – 262 – 13 – 0 – 5.2 – .1 – 3.3 – 12.4 – .95

    This information clearly recognizes the Phillies Top Prospects as:
    # 1 Donald
    # 2 Happ
    # 3 Carrasco
    # 4 Jaramillo
    # 5 Marson

    Clearly Donald’ s numbers are almost identical to Utley’s. Donald hits for a higher batting average .309 to .299 and Donald has almost the identical OPS as Utley.

    Clearly Marson’s numbers are almost identical to Ruiz.

    Carrasco’s numbers are slightly better than Kendricks.

    So I ask you who would you rather have Utley (Donald), Ruiz (Marson) or Kendrick
    (Carrasco) on your team? My choice is Utley and consequently Donald.

    Clearly the facts (performance) do not lie.

    And now here are my opinions.

    I believe that Donald is the top prospect. His performance and career almost mirrors Utley’s. First both Donald and Utley were listed as one of the top 100 players graduating high school by Baseball America – Utley in 1997 and Donald in 2003. And in fact many of the evaluators before the draft had them both listed in the top 25of high school prospects in their respective years. They were both local California prospects that signed letters of intent that lowered their draft status in order to go to college – Utley to UCLA and Donald to Arizona. Utley was drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers and offered ½ million dollars to sign and avoid going to college in 1997. Donald was drafted by the Los Angeles Angels and offered 1 million dollars to sign and avoid going to college in 2003. Those two offers were basically equal based on the increase in the signing bonuses in that period. The 1 million dollar amount in 2003 is basically equal to a signing bonus for a 2008 high school player of about 1.75 to 2 million dollars. Utley went to UCLA and spent four years there being a college All-American 2nd baseman in his senior year. Donald went to Arizona and spent three years there being a college All-American shortstop in his freshman year. There was questions as to if they would develop into a regular player. However, they both have Tool 6 and Tool 7 in spades that allow them to maximize their other 5 Tools. Both Tool 6 and Tool 7 are between the players ears. Tool 6 is the ability to understand the instruction that is being provided to them and to convert it into how they are doing something to become better. Tool 7 is motivation to spend extra time necessary to practice to become better and to have the burning desire to win and be a team player.

    I watched Utley play for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in 2002 – I must have seen 35 games that season. It was torture watching him play 3rd that season. He made 28 errors but he made many more mistakes there. His footwork was terrible, he made erratic and weak throws to 1st , he was in the wrong position for a hitter. Any hitter with any speed could hit it to 3rd and beat it out with him there. However early in the season, I saw a blurb in the local papers that He was putting in extra time practicing with the coaches to work on his fielding. Latter on I saw a blurb that he was taking extra batting practice even though he was not in a slump. He was willing to spend extra time to get better. Of the 28 errors; 14 were in the first 25 games while the other 14 were made in the last 68 games. The same thing happened the following season when he was reconverted to 2nd base. He made 17 errors but most were early in the season and he spent extra time working on his fielding. In addition I saw a blurb about Utley, who was born left-handed, pitching batting practice left-handed to help the team when they had no-one to pitch batting practice left-handed. Utley who threw left-handed learned to throw right-handed in order to play the infield because his favorite player was an infielder. Because of these facts I knew he would become a good major league player. Donald has the same attitude. His winning the Darrell Stenson Award in the Arizona Fall League reflects this along with other information I read on his work attitude. The Darrell Stenson Award is given to the player who displays hard work, leadership, and unselfishness.

    Like

  138. NE PA —
    No, it is not just about performance. In the minors, performance has to be correlated for age, and projection does matter. Marson and Donald both played at Reading, but Marson is about two years younger. That is a big plus for Marson. Jaramillo plays one level higher, but is two years older than Donald. Jaramillo has not been improving, while Donald and Marson have. That is two big minuses for Jaramillo. Jaramillo is about #20 – 25 on my prospect list. The Phillies thought so much of him that they brought up Marson from AA instead of him. Taylor and Brown are clearly better position prospects than Jaramillo. D’Arnaud is a better prospect for sure. I think Galvis is also.

    Like

  140. Jaramillo is 26 years old and a 265 hitter in triple a where he faces good pitching, maybe 2 times a week,compared to big leagues where you see good pitching a lot more. how can you think that he is better.

    Like

  141. Jaramillo- I seldom look at stats as a basis- but one people might look at is errors. Jaramillo had 16. So one might think he could be defensively unreliable. A defensively unreliable catcher is poison. Then likely as a bench player
    he would hit infrequently off the bench. I got his AAA batting average as around .250. I think he’s a .250 hitter , basically. He has played most every game in the minors and I say he’s around a .250 hitter. How would he hit off an MLB bench?

    If that mis-mash of stats was meant to imply that Jason
    Jaramillo is the # 4 guy, ahead of Marson and numerous others, it is a mis-use of space and dubious.

    Like

  144. NE PA. I agree with A’town that performance is not the only criterion. However, your exercise provides good data points to start with. Thanks for the effort.

    The problem I have is that you started with using unbiased evaluation of performance and ended with a completely subjective view that Donald and Utley both have heart and determination, hard work, etc. These are important attributes, but already reflected in the stats. But that was a schizophrenic post if I ever saw one. 🙂

    Like

  146. I enjoyed NE’s analysis as well, definitely a well-thought out decision. But it’s not all about hitting – I think when you pointed out that Utley was out of position at 3rd, and thus had a lot more errors, you were pointing out what Donald’s weakness as a prospect *might* be. Donald, while he could be in Utley’s position at the start of the year, will in all likelihood be a 3B with the Phils. This isn’t the American league, there’s no DH.

    Like

Comments are closed.