Who is the 2009 version of Michael Taylor?

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I figured this would be an interesting topic of discussion, just to get an idea what others are thinking. Taylor came out of nowhere this season, after a very mediocre debut in 2007. So, who is the 2009 version, if we have one? Who will come off of a very pedestrian 2008 season to really jump up the rankings in 2009?

Edit > The Phillies have finalized their 40 man roster heading into the Rule 5 draft. Joel Naughton, Carlos Carrasco, Sergio Escalona, and Drew Naylor were added. Jeremy Slayden and Pat Overholt were not. There’s a very good chance Slayden will be selected.

86 thoughts on “Who is the 2009 version of Michael Taylor?”

  1. I’m going to go with Kyle Slate. I’m a big fan of him, and I think he has the stuff to jump up the rankings.

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  2. I am hoping it’s Mattair we really need him to step up for us. A lot of us feel Howard will leave and Utley will move to first donald to second we will need a third Basemen hope he really starts to hit this year.

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  5. Gotta go with Jeremy Hamilton here – he showed a good batting eye, and had a decent amount of extra base hits. He just really struggled with making contact. I’m betting he figures out wooden bats, tears it up at Lakewood, then finished the year in Clearwater.

    (and if he does that, there will be a ridiculous amounts of posts at this site along the lines of “when do we trade Howard and bring Hamilton up?” That oughta be fun)

    – Jeff

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  6. I suspect the reason they stopped at 37 is that they expect to add 3 more players as free agents. If they were to add someone else (say Slayden) now and then take him off later to put a free agent on the 40-man, then the guy coming off has to go through waivers. That’s more of a risk than the Rule 5 draft, since someone lost on waivers is lost for good with no chance of getting him back.

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  7. Shameless self-promotion here… I’d like to point out that I was the only one to mention Michael Taylor’s name when this question was posed last year.

    In all seriousness though, I do think there’s something to the idea that college guys struggle in the NYPL as they adjust to wood bats and better pitching — as I said last year, look at Donald and Taylor — so I’ll agree with Jeff O that Jeremy Hamilton is a good bet for a breakout candidate. Someone like Brandon Haislet might surprise to a lesser extent, but the Phils took fewer college bats in last year’s draft than in 2007, so there aren’t as many candidates in this vein.

    Another candidate: Zach Collier. I know he’s highly regarded already, but I think he’ll start in Lakewood — as an 18-year old, mind you — and really open some eyes. And I also like Ducky’s Kyle Slate call; he should also start in Lakewood, and hopefully he’ll make up for lost time.

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  8. 1- When is the rule 5? Is it the first week of Dec?
    2- I guess fo rthis question we’ve got to pick a non top prospect, I mean Garcia has been shaky but he’s young and held in high regards.

    My surprise of ’09 will be:
    Freddy Galvis

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  9. And I forgot to say: why Naughton and not Slayden? Seriously, what were the odds a team took Naughton and were able to keep him on the 25-man? Slayden isn’t great, but at the very least he had a shot to be a 4th or 5th outfielder with a decent eye and a little bit of pop.

    From Section 113: the Rule 5 draft is scheduled for December 11, and I expect the Phils to use at least one of their available roster spots to take somebody. Maybe Lincoln Holdzkom is available again?

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  10. My 09 breakout player will be one of 3 pitchers. Savery, Knapp, or Worley.

    Note: Worley didn’t exactly have a bad 08 year but I think there’s a chance he moves through several levels during the season.

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  12. With 3 spots open, we would think that 1 more guy is going to be added. Right? I mean I doubt any major signnings go down for us between now and Dec.11.

    Also, why is Harman on the 40 man over Slayden? I would think Slayden has more value than a poor hitting Harman.

    We need to cut ties with Eaton, I’d rather have Slayden and pay $9 million to not have Eaton than pay $9 million to have Eaton and Not play him and not have Slayden!

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  13. I expect several of the Caribbean guys from the GCL to have have big years in Lakewood or Williamsport. We all know about Valle, Garcia, and Castro but I am going to go with Vladimir De Los Santos as coming closest to the Taylor model, a little older with some pop who might have a break out year in 09. He did lead the GCL in RBI’s and came in second in homers after hitting 6 in August. He was a GCL post season all star. He was listed as moving to first base from right field in the FIL.

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  14. I’m gonna go with TJ Warren. I think this is the year he puts it all together. We saw some flashes last season but inconsistency plagued the 6’4 outfielder over the course of the year. He can steal a few bases, only made two errors last year, can play all the outfield positions, and drew some more walks towards the end of last year. He did hit .314 in May and .303 in July. And he’s just 20 years old.

    And I’m a little bummed about Slayden but hopefully he gets a shot with another team, because he can be a very valuable piece to a winning team.

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  16. My surprise(s) of the ’09 season is Travis Mattair – lots of errors, but he had a much improved second half. Also showed flashes of great hitting this year. As such, I think he’s young, yet mature competitor, and he will break out next year (most likely in Lakewood again).

    I’m not sure either Freddy Galvis or d’Arnaud would be a “surprise” – unless Freddy started hitting bombs, which I think is pretty unlikely. D’arnaud surprised most this year, and is on a lot of people’s radar (at least on this site) after a pretty good year.

    Friar – I think a lot of people have underestimated Naughton’s defensive play this year. Considering some of the comments I’ve read on how his defense was a liability when he first started training with the Phillies, I’d assume that his improvement has impressed the coordinators. A defensive catcher who can put his bat on the ball is an asset. That being said, I am surprised Slayden wasn’t added after being sent to Arizona, and performing at a level consistent with his full season numbers.

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  17. Karl Bolt.

    can’t find the stats but i think i remember him tearing it up towards the end of the year. or maybe that was rizzotti?

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  18. SURPRISE OF 2009=

    Full Season Player- Troy Hanzawa
    Short Season= Anthony Hewitt

    Really just two hunches, Hewitt is based on absolutely nothing concrete or statistical except that he’s a hard worker and stud athlete from all reports (and if he starts turning tools into skills this early we will have something awesome to talk about everyday). Hanzawa based on some reports on him from the BA NYPL chat, that he is pretty promising and just missed the Top 20.

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  19. Drabek – he’s ready to take off in a big way.

    Dark horse – Brad Harman. Lost in Harman’s putrid season was the fact that he showed a lot of power. I think the promotion to the majors just messed with his head. He may be a lot better than he showed and if he starts to make contact more frequently, he could jump back up the charts quickly.

    Semi Dark Horse – Dom Brown is also ready for a breakout. Yes, he had a good year last year, but he is capable of much more.

    Darkest Horse – Tyler Mach (just kidding)

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  20. My candidate for a breakout year is Matt Rizzotti. Despite being a college guy he was a bit raw when drafted and he battled injuries most of the year last year. He demonstrated a keen eye last year despite struggling at times (65 BB in 365 ABs) and with more at-bats he will make more solid contact in hitter’s counts. I understand that he was old for his league, but I tend to care more about polish and experience relative to league rather than age and as a northeastern guy out of a second-tier baseball college, he was probably more raw than most and is due for a breakout IMO.

    I believe that the Phils made the right decision by protecting Naughton over Slayden. It is easier to hide a young, defensive catcher on a roster than it is a below-average leftfielder with below-average pop for a season. The extra catcher allows the backup catcher to pinch-hit and still have an injury replacement on the bench. Additionally, Naughton is 4 years younger and a still-developing raw Aussie. Slayden is a nice player but he has over 100k’s and lacks real power, speed and defensive skills. I’m not going to get caught up about this one.

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  22. I’m very surprised about Slayden. I’m sure he’ll get picked and given a shot at being the 5th OF for an AL club. I could understand if the roster was maxed out but they have three slots open and I don’t see them signing three FA’s between Dec 11th and now. I know they’ll want to pick at least one guy in the draft as they always do, but would any of them be that big of an improvement over Slayden? The 25 is basically set so unless they can get a 5th OF with speed or a fungible bullpen arm I don’t see where a guy could fit on the 25 as it stands.

    2009 Taylor will be Jeremy Hamilton. Everything Jeff O said is truth on him. Batting eye, IF it can be taught (I know that’s a big topic of debate here), is hard to learn, and he has it. He’ll adjust and start mashing.

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  23. Rizzotti is in an interesting choice. I’m eager to see many of our newer guys, including Hamilton.

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  24. I like the Rizzotti choice as well – he definitely has some power, and had to fight for playing time with 2 other 1st basemen on Lakewood’s roster (although Bolt was moved to outfield for most of the year). Let’s hope he steps it up.

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  25. Since MT was taken late I will go with the guy only I seem to like Mike Cisco. And I see big things for Savery and Drabek.

    Slayden on the 40. Bruntlett off

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  26. Slayden is a 5th OF without one plus tool. Chances are that he does get picked by someone and its just as likely that he gets offered back at some point.

    Way too much hand-wringing over a fringe guy who is still at AA and turns 26 in the middle of the 09 season. Golson, Taylor, and Brown are already ahead of him. Myers and Collier soon will be.

    Phillies are keeping 1 spot open for Moyer, 1 spot for that last bullpen guy, and 1 spot for Burrell or his replacement.

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  27. Would also note that since Jason Donald isn’t on the 40-man currently, he would also need to be added were he to make the team as a part-time 3b out of ST.

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  28. Hewitt. Totally raw with ridiculous tools, I agree that he’ll be someone we are talking about late next year.

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  29. D’Arby Myers–skills start to catch up to incredible tools.
    Jacob Diekman–will dominate left handed hitters.

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  30. I’m anoymous above – forgot out Moyer, he’ll need a spot any day now.

    Can Donald not be selected?

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  31. OK, I will evoke much derision with a wild thought:

    JASON JARAMILLO!!!

    Reasons:
    Very little discussion on this point, but Jason is a switch hitter and his stats as a LH hitter are:
    .288 BA, 7 HR, .374 OBP, .795 OPS in 278 ABs

    You read it here:

    Jason will replace Coste as backup catcher in April and split duty with Ruiz. By June he will be hitting .290 with 6 HR from the left side. Phils may then move him at trade deadline, bringing Marson up. But hisvalue will go up if they bring him up and hit him from left side only. Also, late in game, you don’t have to PH for him, he can just switch to RH.

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  32. You guys are all wrong. The breakout player will be Michael Durrant. He will be the player who replaces Howard in a few years.

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  34. Here’s another name: Julian Sampson. Like Taylor, he is lying in the weeds, with great physical ability but iffy performance. Third year, it all comes together and he becomes a stud.

    My “Jaramillo = breakout player” was tongue in cheek, but the point is good. Most discussion of him is he is not good enough to be a starter, maybe a backup. I think his best shot is as a platoon catcher, hitting mainly from the left side. That is a rare commodity in a catcher and has value, in that it keeps both catchers fresh and maximizes the offensive output of two good defensive catchers. (Note how well Ruiz did in October when he started playing every day, but on fresh legs.) Jaramillo has not been great defensively, but my guess is he is a little better than Coste. And at this point, hitting against RH pitching, he may be as good or better than Coste at the plate.

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  35. Forgive me, its a slow day at work and I find this topic very interesting: I think I disagree with Durant being the one to fill Howard’s shoes. While he has the size, and probably the power, of Howard – its possible he is worse at hitting the offspeed pitch than Howard is. Once the erratic SAL pitchers figured this out, Durant rarely saw a fastball, and his production went down (130 SOs this year after missing a month or so for an ankle sprain). course, as a Phillies org. fan, I do not want him to continue with this struggle, but if he can’t learn to hit the offspeed pitch at this level, he won’t replace Howard.

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  36. Jeremy Slayden just hit a pinch hit, Grand Slam to put his team up 7-4 in the top of the 8th in the AFL. The winner of the this game will clinch a spot in the Championship game on Saturday.

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  37. Jeremey Slayden will surprise people—–he can flat hit and will show that wherever he goes!
    He is fun to watch—if we lose him in the rule 5 he will not be back.
    Hitters like Slayden and Dobbs are easy to overlook until you watch the line drives pile up.

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  38. I predict Travis D’Arnaud will have a monster campaign. I see Quintin Berry winning over some converts, too. Also looking for Joe Savery doubters to go into hiding by this time next season. And Jason Donald could finally lose the “utility guy” label with another strong season.

    Justin De Fratus is another break out candidate. And count me in the Collier column, too.

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  40. and better yet RickeyBranch, do you know who he hit it off of? That’s right, Eddie Kunz of the New York Mets. Even in Arizona we torture them!!!

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  42. And if Slayden had any actual tools he’d have been a MLBer 4 years ago…he doesn’t and that’s why he isn’t on the 40 man. One HR in the AFL doesn’t outweigh his past 4 years in the minors.

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  43. Two pitchers who could pleasantly are Michael Stutes and Michael Cisco. Both were 21 and split time between and NYPL and SALLY. Both had great K/W, H/9, and HR/9 ratios.

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  45. I agree that D’Arnaud and Karl Bolt will have big seasons. Also look for CF Leandro Castro who can really hit and swipe some bags as well. His walk to strikeout ratio is pretty awful for an average hitting speedy centerfielder, but the patience will come over time.

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  46. I’d also keep an eye on Venezuelan 2B Edgar Garcia. Last year in the Gulf Coast League he hit .300 with 22 extra base hits in 174 at-bats (5 3Bs, 5 HRs). He also stole 17 bases. Granted, he was 21 in the league which makes the numbers a bit less valuable but the talent there can’t be overlooked. I’m curious to see how he plays this upcoming year most likely at Clearwater, as that is where he played the final 2 games of the year last season

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  47. i will go with drabek, i think he is poised to come back and have a huge year in the minors and hopefully move up quickly, he definately has the stuff to do it

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  48. NEPP—
    No disrespect intended but Slayden just came out of college in 2005–not many jump immediately to the majors.
    He has performed well at every level and provided excellent protection in the Reading lineup for Donald and Marson.
    Sure tools are what people love but guys like Dobbs,Stairs and Slayden are just good hitters. He is fun to watch—-not Puhols but he may become a Ryan Ludwick.

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  49. Slayden has a better shot of being a weak Jason Michaels copy than Ryan Ludwick. He simply doesn’t hit for any power (1 HR/28+ ABs last year) and he can’t play CF. He tops out as a 5th OF.

    To mwbbfan: I agree that it was unfair. I’ll just be honest and say that I didn’t realize he had just come out of college in 05 when I made that statement. I went back and looked at his stats on BR after the post and realized it. Most legit players don’t take a full year in the NY/PENN and Sally leagues either though…especially when they’re college seniors when drafted.

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  50. Best odds for a big year — D’Arnaud, but I wouldn’t call it a break-out given his production this year.

    I’d like Overbeck if he had any strike-zone judgment.

    Hanzawa has a great glove, and has some offensive tools.

    Harold Garcia is a good candidate to play well at Lakewood.

    But I’m going to pump Quentin Berry–a good AFL season, a smaller park in REading to help him a bit with SLG, and a good eye.

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  51. D’Arnaud is gonna be really really good in a few years. Watching him in the NY/Penn league was like watching a man among boys…and he had a definite presence behind the plate.

    I like Hanzawa too even if he was old for the league…I liked Overbeck’s power but his plate judgement is a bit iffy…and he’s not a 3B by a longshot. He’s gonna have to hit alot more to make it as a corner OF and that’s his future defensively.

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  53. I’m confused as to what about d’Arnaud (from all I’ve been reading) was “mediocre” this year. If many are listing him in the top 5 prospects, how is he “Michael Taylor”-like. MT wasn’t even in anybody’s (ok, maybe 1 person in all of MiLB) Top 30.

    Same goes for Dominic Brown – HWB hitting title and projected 2011 phillie is a surprise?

    My pick? A healthy Rizzotti.

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  56. How about two guys that are in the top 30 already, but at different possitions?

    Savery at 1st
    Anthony Gose as a lefty pitcher

    Obviously the Phils aren’t giving up on Savery pitching just yet, but maybe Gose is ready to pitch? It’d be nice.

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  57. Well, I want to say Mattair for position players and Sampson for pitchers.

    But when you think about Drabek’s stuff, dad winning Cy Young pedigree, same kind of confidence as Hamels in the Minors. He doesn’t need a lot of things to break his way to have a really good season next year.

    But that is such a safe pick. Not enough risk to feel good about that choice if I’m right.

    I’m picking Mattair

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  58. Comack15 Says;
    “I believe that the Phils made the right decision by protecting Naughton over Slayden. It is easier to hide a young, defensive catcher on a roster than it is a below-average leftfielder with below-average pop for a season.”

    I realize you said you weren’t all that attached to this opinion- but i’m still completely dumbfounded why they protected him. Not even as a case for him over Slayden. He’s a nice catching prospect to have around- but nobody in their right mind would pick a low-A ball 22 year old catcher with limited experience who doesn’t even show off one exceptional tool. I’ve seen him play- his arm is good, not great- his accuracy is very good. His bat offers a little power, but he doesn’t project to be a very good hitter. Even if he does evolve into a major league player, its still at least another 4 years untill he realizes that potential. Essentially, he’s the low a ball Jason Jaramillo. Someone from the list of guys available is likely to get picked- why not protect one of them over a guy who had no shot of getting picked?

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  59. this is a really good question. it is not really, who will have a break out year. for that i would be inclined to say Drabek or Knapp. it is really asking, who will come from no where to have a break out year. can’t really inlcude drabek or knapp or hewitt or some of the other guys mentioned because they are all already on the radar screen. i love d’arnaud, but he will probably be listed in our top 7 propspects, so not really an unknown.

    i love susdorf. i still think that he will climb quickly. i also like Shreve and Stutes to be late round picks not listed in our top 10 prospects to have break out years. maybe i am missing the boat on susdorf. i just think that he is a classic over achiever. a guy who just keeps performing at every level and people keep saying, “not good enough” but he just keeps getting hits. but maybe i will be wrong.

    shreve has some nasty stuff and could climb really fast this year. and stutes seemed to “get it” after he was drafted. i would not be surprised to see stutes in the show in 2009. probably in the bull pen of for a spot start if an injury.

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  60. I like Slayden too, but I understand why he wasn’t protected. His upside is limited and the team has extra lefty hitters to burn. Still, when he’s slugging doubles for the Pirates or the Royals and Eric Bruntlett is continuing to pop out to shallow left field, it will be hard to swallow.

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  61. SirAlden, I like the pick of Damarii Saunderson a lot. I was for some reason only thinking of pitchers before (Slate). I think Saunderson has a chance to really surprise this year.

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  62. Here’s another name that might pop up – Mike Zagurski. Remember him? The guy can pitch. We seem to forget that he went from Clearwater to the Phils in half a season. You have to have talent (and a bad MLB bullpen) to do that. But if he’s back, he could surprise.

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  63. Surprise for full season- Stephen Susdorf. I predict he
    starts at AA and starts being considered as a
    soon to be MLB fill-in OF type.
    Surprise for short season- Bernardo Solarte.
    Starts off at 16 in GCL and does well. Saw a scouting
    report on him (and Nerio Rios, Jon Vilian,and Alvaro Bacil)
    that said he made great strides in Instructional League
    towards playin CF (converted SS) said he has speed,
    live bat, live body, etc.

    Those are my guesses.

    Note: for somebody uptop who asked about Donald
    on the 40. He doesn’t need to be protected yet.
    But he likely might soon, as Chase Utley is going
    to need hip surgery and may be out till late June.
    So if Donald Makes team he could start at 2B
    to start the season.

    Just in case some did not know.

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  64. I thought I read somewhere Zagurski wouldn’t be at 100% until midseason. I would put his ceiling at Scott Eyre’s replacement next year.

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  65. That’s late breaking news on Utley. I actually view this to be somewhat encouraging because it means that the deterioration of his performance after May really did have a root cause. I am also glad that they’re not screwing around with this – they are getting it taken care of now so he can get back to the team ASAP and play.

    Anyway, Utley’s absence will have some definite consequences. I think it means that: (a) Donald is probably going to get a chance to “compete” with Bruntlett for the second base job in ST (or at least a “job share”); and (b) the signing of Pat Burrell is now much more likely because, without Utley, the team is going to need all the hitting it can get.

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  66. I *really* like the Susdorf pick. While .300 in short season isn’t too “mediocre” following a pretty good CWS, when I saw him in Lakewood I wasn’t too impressed (granted, it was only 2 games). Either way, I think he could be capable of gettin it in gear and having a good year.

    Speaking of W-port: What’s the word on Overbeck? 65 Ks is high for short-season, is it patience or pitch-selection? 18 doubles and 12 HRs is pretty impressive.

    The Utley situation is good news for Donald – though I can’t help but hope it doesn’t turn into the Thome/Howard situation, I’m a fan of Utley.

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  67. Also (and sorry for the extra post), no way Susdorf starts in AA – that’s way too big of a jump; he had a good half-season, not a great one.

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  68. I hope it does turn into Thome/Howard with Utley/Donald. That means Donald comes out gangbusters next year. The difference is that Donald can play somewhere else in the field, Howard and Thome could not. It would be a great problem to have.

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  69. Touche, that is a great point. Fine, Utley/Donald works so long as Utley doesn’t get traded to the White Sox. 🙂

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  70. Teddy (Los Angeles): Keith, what do you think of Travis D’Arnaud?

    Keith Law: Future everyday catcher.

    Figured I’d post that in here.

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  71. Doesn’t affect burrell one bit. Do you think they would sign him now to three year deal because of utley, Then you don’t know them, they will put butlett in left and donald at second before they would do that, they won the title and will have advance tickets sales in record numbers. that is there bottom line. remember they have twenty eight years until they have to try to win again.

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  72. Please someone tell what they like about Bruntlett. I am puzzled. Sladen could come up as a DH or are they planning on use Coste again.
    I like Robert Roth but is he hurt again

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  73. I saw Bolt out at an FIL game one afternnon and he was in his “other uniform”. I guess he couldn’t do instructionals because of his Air Force job, but he looked as conditioned and buff as any off season guy I’ve seen. Having seen him play, as well as Rizotti, Durant, Warren, and a host of others he has had to compete with at various positions, I think he is the most athletic of the bunch, and he rakes. He hit over .325 three months last summer at Lakewood, but had one disastrous month. Looking at his college numbers in a tough league, and how hard he has hit the ball in the 2 years with the Phillies, I like this kid. Would love to see a breakout.

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  74. If Tony Bastard’s shoulder is healthy I still like him as a breakout among pitchers (supposedly his shoulder was bothering him for weeks before they put him down, and would explain his erratic command in Reading), and Mattair is a great choice for hitters. Had to jump in on Bruntlett because he’s a Stanford guy (you all might remember me from the Stanford swing thing awhile back on Taylor), the thing with Bruntlett is that he’s worth a roster spot because he plays 7 positions competently (and I bet he could catch if you needed him to). For an NL team that’s pretty valuable, definitely more so than a decent 5th outfielder type. For Slayden to be worth a roster spot for next year he’d have to be a clearly superior hitter to Dobbs and Coste, I’m not sure he’s that.

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  79. This the crap i was talking about at Reading. Why didnt they shut him down earlier.Its the old time tough guy thingy
    Forbes and Filer should buy a bowling alley

    PhilsProspectFollower Says:
    November 20, 2008 at 7:00 pm

    If Tony Bastard’s shoulder is healthy I still like him as a breakout among pitchers (supposedly his shoulder was bothering him for weeks before they put him down, and would explain his erratic command in Reading),

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  80. i am a fan of bastardo’s as well, but the guy was chosen for the futures game last year. (the international team as well, i.e. he wasn’t impacted by the Team USA stuff). if he didn’t get injured, there was a very good chance he would have been in the phillies pen last year. can we really count him as a “come out of no where” player?

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  81. Position Player:

    1. Travis Mattair
    2. Zachary Collier
    3. Leandro Castro

    Pitchers:

    1. Jason Knapp
    2. Colby Shreve
    3. Joe Savery

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  85. Kyle Slate does have some electric stuff. Look for him to def hit the rankings the kids got some good stuff. Lakewood should def be his starting if not thatd crap

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