Let’s get back on track today with the review of the 2008 Reading Phillies. If you’re late to the party, you’ll want to read the other reviews, where you’ll learn more about the statistics I’m using.
GCL Phillies
Williamsport
Lakewood
Clearwater
So, here we go…
Lou Marson, C: 395 PA — .314/.433/.416
Marson took the world by storm this season, making the big jump from A+ to AA and sitting near the top of the Eastern League in on base percentage for the duration of the season. His .314 SecA placed him second on the team behind only Jason Donald, and his raw OB% was far and away the best mark at Reading, over 40 points better than Donald. He didn’t show much power, his ISO of .102 isn’t quite what you want, but I’ve pointed out a number of times, with catchers, the power tool is often the last to develop. Marson’s defense was the area that needed the most work, and reports this season were positive. 2008 was his age 22 season, and at that point he is ahead of the developmental curve for catchers.
Jason Donald, SS: 414 PA — .307/.391/.497
If Marson was the big story at Reading, Donald was a close second. Donald’s 2007 included a lot of “yeah, but’s”, with scouts and experts wanting to see him replicate his success at a higher level. Donald responded by posting a rock solid season at AA, an .888 OPS to go along with a .345 SecA and a .190 ISO. He drew walks (11.4% of his PA’s) and 33% of his hits went for extra bases. He was also good for 9 net stolen bases. Now, the question becomes where he plays in the big leagues, not if he plays in the big leagues.
Jeremy Slayden, OF: 551 PA — .298/.377/.480
Slayden, a guy people accuse me of disrespecting here, had a decent season at Reading. Slayden has adequate plate discipline, he hits for a decent average, and he has modest power. His .286 SecA was fairly pedestrian, considering he was 25 and in AA, but his .857 OPS was solid. Slayden’s 36% extra base hit percentage was solid, highest among the 4 legit prospects at Reading. The concerns from the past remain, such as where he plays defensively, and if hes more than a 4th OF. Right now, he looks like a 4th outfielder, but we already have two lefthanded 4th OF’ers in Geoff Jenkins and Matt Stairs.
Greg Golson, OF: 470 PA — .282/.333/.434
Golson, one of the most polarizing prospects in the minor leagues, actually took a step forward this season, even if it isn’t readily apparent in his numbers. He posted a walk rate of 7.2%, a career high, and was actually higher earlier in the season before dropping off in the 2nd half. His K rate of 27.7% was lower than last year’s 28.5%, His SecA of .275 is helped by his 18 net stolen bases. As we saw in his very small big league sample, he still struggles mightily with quality pitching, especially breaking balls.
Brad Harman, 2B: 494 PA — .210/.280/.366
Harman had one of the most disappointing seasons in the Phillies system in 2008, especially after I’d ranked him 10th in my Top 30. There are lots of negatives, starting with his anemic .210 batting average. However, his walk rate (8.7%) was better than Golson’s, as was his ISO (.156 to .102) and his extra base hit percentage, 36.6. He posted a SecA of .257, driven by the walks and extra base hits. But really, what a disappointing season.
Notes: Really nothing else of note here. Jake Blalock, back in the Phillies system again, posted a terrible .235/.296/.314 line with hardly any power and a poor .170 SecA. The rest of the team was generally made up of career minor league guys like Neil Sellers, Luke Appert, and Mike Spidale.
Carlos Carrasco, RHP: 114.2 IP — 4.32 ERA — 3.91 DICE
Carrasco, who finished the season at Reading last year, pitched much better there this season, posting a solid 8.59 K/9 rate and a slightly better than league average 3.55 BB/9. That last number is a bit higher than you’d like to see, but Carrasco was pitching 2008 at age 21, and in AA, so he’s still ahead of the curve. The difference in his ERA and his DICE indicate he might have been a tad unlucky. He did allow a few too many home runs, 13 in the 114 IP, but I think at this point, its something we’ll have to live with, as he is a fly ball/strikeout pitcher.
Drew Carpenter, RHP: 93.2 IP — 5.67 ERA — 4.39 DICE
Carpenter was coming off a big 2007 at High A, but the success didn’t translate at AA. In addition to his struggles on the field, he dealt with minor arm worries off the field, and that probably contributed to some of his struggles. He continued to show good control, walking only 2.9 per 9, but he failed to miss bats, striking out only 6.7 per 9. He also allowed too many home runs, 13 in just 93 innings, and its a bigger issue with him because he doesn’t miss as many bats as Carrasco.
Antonio Bastardo, LHP: 67.0 IP — 3.76 ERA — 5.37 DICE
Bastardo torched Clearwater to start 2008, prompting his promotion to Reading. His peripherals slipped while adjusting to a higher level of competition, and he didn’t really have a chance to make adjustments as he went down with a labrum injury, the severity of which hasn’t really been addressed by the Phillies front office. His biggest problem at Reading was the walks, as he walked 4.97/9 in his 67 IP. On top of that, he allowed 13 HR in 67 IP. 13 was the magic number for Reading pitchers apparently. The high walk rate and the high HR rate are the reason for the large spread in his actual ERA and his DICE.
Edgar Garcia, RHP: 58.0 IP — 8.22 ERA — 5.62 DICE
We touched on Garcia’s struggles briefly in the last report at Clearwater, and as you can see, he really did struggle upon promotion. But its immediately important to recognize that he was only 20 years old pitching in AA, one of the youngest players in the league, facing lots of legit prospects 3-4 years older, and lots of career minor leaguers who were even older. He got knocked around, all of his peripherals were poor, but I’m really not bothered by this 58 inning simple, considering his track record and his age.
Notes: Josh Outman, who struggled at the outset, was turning things around before being traded to Oakland, but doing it as a reliever. Oakland turned him back into a starter, and he made his way to the big leagues in just a few short months. Tyson Brummett pitched at 3 levels, the prior 2 were solid, but his time in Reading was not good, posting a 7.28 ERA in 80 innings. Sam Walls, who dominated at Clearwater, was lit up to the tune of a 7.09 ERA, including more than a walk per inning. Sergio Escalona, a somewhat intriguing relief prospect, posted a 2.22 ERA but had a 4.08 DICE, driven largely by 5.23 BB/9.
Phuture Phillies 
Carrasco gets an added plus for doing well after promotion to Lehigh Valley. Given Slayden’s age and defensive deficiencies, he should really have mashed at the hitter-friendly Reading park. He didn’t, casting doubt on his upside. That said, I wouldn’t consider Jenkins much of a blocker, in fact if I’m GM my number one instruction to Manuel going into next season is to make absolutely certain that Jenkins doesn’t get enough AB for his option to vest.
Other relief bombs worthy of mention, because we had fairly high hopes for them over the past couple years, are Bisenius, Overholt, and Harker.
LikeLike
If I was GM my first directive would be to find a new home for Jenkins.
Love this statement on Donald: ‘Now, the question becomes where he plays in the big leagues, not if he plays in the big leagues.’ I think it was here someone compared his stats to Jed Lowrie and determined the main difference between them is hype, although I’m sure there are some scouting intangibles at work. I think he would make a perfect 3B in 2010 or 2009 as a injury replacement. He may not have the typical corner power but the high OBP compensates somewhat. I don’t think anyone considers him a future All-Star but people are excited about having an above-average 3B option to put into the potent ML lineup. I think Feliz is decent and was a good pickup considering the other options but we haven’t had a good 3B since Rolen.
Also, the Lounacy continues. I’m going to write him and advise he grow a Fu-Manchu and take to wearing mirrored aviators so the fans immediately fall in love with him.
LikeLike
Hopefully Jenkins will be traded sometime before the 09 season like Wes Helms was this year. If we eat most of his salary I think somebody would take him off our hands.
LikeLike
This time last year would anyone have thought Marson and Donald would be as improved as they are? So it is reasonable
to believe they will improve next year. It is also resonable
to think that Fexiz will continue to downgrade on defense as well as offense (oh my god). Jenkins as well. Basically with
Jenkins and SO-SO the Phils used a 23 man roster so there
are open slots
LikeLike
I was reading about the tourament in Juniper Florida. They mention a kid Bryce Harper only in sophmore year of high school 6’4 and a stud. anyone ever hear of him.
LikeLike
Yeah Keith Law has a mancrush on him, its in his blog from a couple months ago along with some video. From all accounts he’s pretty freaking impressive. Anyway, What are your guys thoughts on Carlos? You think we will see him next year? Flamethrowing relief pitcher or 5th starter?
LikeLike
I was reading about the trades for peavy. The atlanta braves have according to the article some studs, I knew about Heywood but who is schafer they won;t part with him. Wonder how good this kid is, to not trade him for a stud like Peavy.
LikeLike
Carlos = AAA starter, first man up for injury/replacement.
LikeLike
Great stuff as always. Not sure where you got the .804 OPS for Donald, though–BaseballCube has his triple-slash for 2008 as .307/.391/.497, or .888 OPS.
What they do with him next spring will be interesting. Given the usage in the AzFL, my guess, and my hope, is that they’re preparing him for a super-utility role–Bruntlett with a usable bat. I guess there could be some concern over whether his progress might be slowed by sitting idle on the big-league bench, but at age 24 with experience in high-quality college ball, international competition, and the high minors, I wouldn’t sweat that.
LikeLike
I think the point is donald has played high competition since high school. And has been successful at each level. I still don’t agree with the tag utility without seeing if he can handle playing everday. This team must find out if this kid is for real.
LikeLike
OPS was a typo, I did it in my head looking at my sheet. Fixed it.
LikeLike
PP. now that it winter time and after the series things slow down. For people like me one day can you put what a lot of the things like SecA,OPS,DICE,ISO. what they mean and relate them to a player. So that a dummy like me can understand thank you.
LikeLike
Another honor for Jason Donald. He is the lone Phillie selected for the AFL Rising Stars Showcase game tomorrow night. The best 50 players, with atleast one player from each of the 30 organizations represented, are selected for the game by scouts and personal guys with the best young AL players vs. the best young NL players.
LikeLike
hey guys, John Sickels, one of my favorite bloggers, (after James of course), is releasing his Top 20’s plus some others for each system. Did the Bravos today, there system is pretty stacked. The Phillies are up next. Any thoughts on grades and placement? He’s usually pretty good with this stuff, although he did rank Travis Blackely 12th, and Dom Brown 20th last year.
1. Carrasco B+
2. Marson B
3. Donald B
4. Brown B
5. Taylor B-
6. D’Arnaud B-
7. Drabek B-
8. Collier B-
9. Knapp C+
10. Stutes C+
Just a wild guess based on knowing he’s pretty high on K rates, and OPS. (not that anyones not)
LikeLike
Follow this logic Coste’s bad play and Ruiz’s good play(did he really pull a ball) may cement a spot for Marson.
I think Drabek may shot up Pat’s list quickly
Note to Mt “snap out of it.”
LikeLike
Pat Burrell —
Good List. I’d move Taylor above Brown. Actually, I’d also move D’Arnaud and Drabek above Brown. I think you are likelier correct about the actual list, but I’d put Garcia above Stutes
LikeLike
Yeah I agree with you on D’Arnaud above Brown on the real list possibly, the only reason I guessed Sickels would have Brown so high was based on comments he’s made earlier in the year regarding Taylor, and Drabek (Taylor- wasn’t sure if he was forreal, Drabek-injury) and how high he was on D. Brown.
LikeLike
I don’t expect the Phils to eat Jenkins’ contract because it wasn’t that small an amount and I’m still hoping he can come back as the 4th outfielder. I am hoping however that Bruntlett isn’t offered arbitration and that Coste retires and Donald and Marson take their reserve roles. I love it when you can ease a young guy into the majors with a back up job at first. Those of you that think he will be gobbled up by some other team are dreaming. He’s 35 and looks and plays older. He had an amazing story but he looks shot to me. Carrasco will defintiely start at AAA and with a good year be up at some point. Its probably likely that Kendrick starts at AAA with him and whichever does best gets the first call up. That assumes the Phils resign Moyer and put Happ as the 5th guy in the rotation next year. Its also very possible that the Phils will sign a right handed hiting 5th outfielder to platoon with Dobbs in left and let Pat leave town, which will be a mistake.
Let’s Go Phils…3 more to go
LikeLike
My great hope is the the Phillies win the world series and jenkins decides to retire as a winner.
Same goes for chris coste. Then we have Ruiz and Jaramillo as the Phillies cathers next year with Ruiz being traded at the trade deadline to make room for Marson. We finish the year with Jaramillo and Marson. The following year we trade Jaramillo at the deadline and finish with Marson and D’arnoud. That is when the tough decision comes… Who do we keep, Marson or D’arnoud.
I also hope Moyer calls it quits after this year if we win. Hamels, Myers, Blanton, Happ, Kendrick to start the season. Trade happ, Kendrick and Ruiz next trade deadline for a really good pitcher and bring up Carrasco. Finish next year with Hamels, Myers, Blanton, Carrasco and whoever we trade for.
Do you guys think The Padres would be interested in Happ, Kendrick, and Ruiz for Peavy this offseason? Is so I would do that in a second, even if it took another player of mid level value. Hamels, Peavy, Myers, Blanton, Carrasco. Gimme that rotation and I give you a serious world series contender.
Would you give Ruiz, Carrasco, and either Happ or Kendrick for Peavy? I think I would.
LikeLike
I’ve heard the Padres are looking for a CF and SP, which would mean Golson and Carrasco, wouldn’t surprise me if they asked for Marson also. If we could get it done for Golson, Carrasco, Happ and maybe a mid level prospect, I’d do that for Peavy.
LikeLike
If you make a trade proposal, and follow it up with ‘I would do it in a second’, then there is a good chance you have just confirmed your expectations are unrealistic.
The Padres don’t have to trade Peavy- he’s got a great contract. The purpose of trading him would be to restock themselves with some top flight talent. If you want the phillies to consider it, maybe you can get away without offering Marson, but the next 4 better be pretty darn good. The rumors that talked about Hanson, Schafer, and Johnson from the Braves seemed like it was missing one more top flight prospect.
LikeLike
The Braves have said, at least initially, that a couple of their top shelf prospects are off limits, even for Peavy. So we may be able to make something happen without giving up our best four guys, and we might not. It’s definitely worth exploring and Peavy is the kind of player I think most people would be comfortable giving up some significant prospects for.
LikeLike
If you get Peavy what happens to the payroll. Young players
balance the money. I prefer good addons. Look at last years sure winners Santana etc.
LikeLike
I’d kill to have Peavy. We dont have the prospects though. Golson, Carrasco and Donald, and Marson would do it though. That’s a mid level starter and 2 good position players and Golson. Would you do that trade? I wouldn’t.
LikeLike
Marson learning from Chris Coste according to the Asbury Park Press:
Marson is suiting up with the Phillies for the Series as a bullpen catcher though he is not active.
“”It’s been a crazy year for me,” Marson said. He said he’s trying to learn big league nuances from catchers from Ruiz and Chris Coste. “”Especially Coste,” Marson said. “”That’s (learning) what I’m there for.
LikeLike
Peavy has a full no-trade, and has not indicated he would be willing to come here. And there are some concerns about his arm. So, I don’t think it’s worth coming up with deals for him.
LikeLike
Excuse me what happens to the payroll,it goes up they have made a bundle . who cares about payroll. if the braves want peavy they have the prospects to get him. He has a four year contract the last year is 22 million he will be bought out of that year. Peavy would make them a contender no matter who replaces burrell. two out of every five starts you have a guy who can go 9 innings and shut down a team. Golson isn’t going to get it done they are talking Schafer or Heywood from the braves two 5 tool prospects. you would have to give victorino, marson carrasco,that would do it. Peavy listed five teams, the phillies are not on that list. but money talks.
LikeLike
I wouldn’t trade Vic and I also doubt the Phillies would either…even for Peavy. Why open another hole in the lineup and weaken the outfield further.
LikeLike
Shane is a nice player, but his stock will never be as high as it is now. He is a compliment to the lineup. Not to say what he has done isn’t important, but he isn’t irreplaceable. If the club are able to upgrade another position by sacrificing him, I’d see what can be done.
LikeLike
You don’t trade good young players. Vic is just entering his prime…I highly doubt 08 was his career year. He’s cheap, plays hard, and is getting better every year. You dont trade those players away. Besides we have no OF prospects ready in the system so they you’re cobbling together an OF that will already be dealing with the loss of Burrell. Michael Taylor, if he develops, could fill our LF hole in 2010 but we dont exactly have a ton of CF prospects sitting around. Golson ain’t it, Berry ain’t it, etc. If you trade a guy like Vic plus several other cheap prospests (Carrasco, Marson & and Donald could all be regulars in the next 2 seasons) then you are killing the future of a team that is already turning into a veteran laden squad.
LikeLike
Well looking at the Padres 40 man, they only have one young cather listed and he only appeared in 60 games this year. Ruiz is really upping his value in the playoffs. Kendrick has experience and a good record as a starter. His sinker and that huge park could be a good fit. that’s two MLB starters right there. Right now the Padres Rotation is Peavy, Young, Baek, Geer, Leblanc. Now I know little about the Padres Farm but I would think that Happ or Carrasco has a shot to make that rotation if they trade Peavy.
If Happ made the Rotation that would be 3 MLB starters for Peavy right there.
Send them Kendrick Happ Carrasco and Ruiz then resign Moyer and our Rotation is Hamels Peavy Myers Moyer Blanton. I’d take that, plus all of them except moyer are controlled for long enough to give Sampson, Savery, Drabek, Carpenter, and Naylor time to develop until we we need to replace Moyer.
And for the comic relief:) We still have Adam Eaton.
I’m laughing with you, but we could handle him as a 5th starter if Hamels and Peavy are the top 2. Plus Myers and Blanton can pitch enough innings to minimize the destruction that Eaton brings down on the Bullpen.
Heck with those 4 guys, we may need Eaton to get the Bullpen some innings once in a while:)
Have a good day everybody and GO PHILLIES!!!!!
LikeLike
Excuse me, Rock, but how does money talk? Peavy is not a free agent. His money will be the same wherever he goes. I wouldn’t tear up or extend his current deal. His arm may not hold up that long.
LikeLike