At this point, you know the drill, so lets not waste any time.
Michael Taylor, OF: .361/.441/.554
Taylor’s exploits have been well covered this season, and for good reason. Taylor couples a good walk rate (10.8%) with a fairly low K rate (14.9%) for a slugger, and then you add in the .193 ISO and the .345 SecA and you have the best prospect at Lakewood, and one of the better statistical seasons in the SAL. The big caveat for Taylor was his age, but he took some of that sting out by continuing to rake at Clearwater, where he was closer to age appropriate.
Dominic Brown, OF: .291/.382/.417
Brown, who many people were high on heading into the year, didn’t disappoint in his full season debut. His composite line was about 35% better than the SAL average. His walk rate (12.4%) was actually better than Taylor’s, and his K rate was slightly lower at 14%. His ISO was lower at .126, and his SecA was lower at .304, but both numbers, especially the latter, are fine considering Brown’s age and progress thus far.
Matt Rizzotti, 1B: .268/.380/.430
I touched on Rizzotti during the overvalued/undervalued review last week, so I’ll be brief here. His low batting average is somewhat of a concern, as he was 22 in Low A, but the walk rate (14.9%), was the best on the team, and I’ve harped on the point plenty about the value of being able to draw walks. Rizzotti’s .162 ISO leaves a little to be desired for a 1B prospect, but Lakewood is a tough hitter’s park. His .340 SecA was third on the team behind Taylor and Mike Durant.
Travis D’Arnaud, C: .297/.357/.469
D’Arnaud, who also made an appearance in the Williamsport review, put up a nice line in his 70 PA’s after being promoted. At only 19, he was young for the SAL, and there’s obviously room to grow here. His .172 ISO is terrific considering his age, home park, and defensive position. He posted a SecA of only .250, but that’s driven by only 5 walks and not a lot of speed. In 70 PA’s, you can’t really judge things like that, so I’ll wait to see what he does in a full season.
Travis Mattair, 3B: .254/.321/.328
I’ve been a huge Mattair booster, but even I’m slightly concerned with his full season debut. He may not have been ready for Lakewood, but you could argue that the failures this year, facing better competition, will help him in terms of making adjustments going forward. There isn’t much to get excited about in his peripheral numbers, his .074 ISO, .161 SecA and 21.3% K rate are all concerns. He did draw walks in 7% of his PA’s, but that’s really a bright spot. 2009 will be a big season for Mattair.
Notes: Mike Durant had a .348 SecA, highest on the team, despite hitting just .234. He has obvious power and a good eye at the plate, but if he can’t make contact, Its hard to imagine him being much of a prospect going forward. He did finally stay healthy for a season though, so thats a plus. I touched on D’Arby Myers’ struggles yesterday, and this is where they started. His .174/.229/.242 line doesn’t inspire confidence, and neither does the .068 ISO or .179 SecA. Freddy Galvis, defensive wiz, ended the season at .238/.300/.288 with an ISO .050 and a SecA of .151. He’s still very young, still plenty of time.
Vance Worley, RHP: 61.0 IP — 2.66 ERA — 2.61 DICE
Worley, who was drafted for the second time by the Phillies in June, briefly appeared at Williamsport before moving to Lakewood. He showed incredible control, only 1.03 BB/9, and struck out 7.82/9 in his 61 innings. What makes this impressive to me is that Worley was a very young college junior, only 20 years old, and instead of just mowing down inferior talent in the NYPL, the Phillies promoted him to A ball and he pitched very very well. His stuff is good, its just going to come down to command and refinement of his secondary offerings.
Drew Naylor, RHP: 87.1 IP — 2.99 ERA — 2.79 DICE
I was higher on Naylor than most heading into this year, and he pitched very well at Lakewood. He struck out 10 per 9, a great rate, and walked only 2.17/9 as well. Naylor was old for the SAL at 22, but as I’ve talked about before, the developmental curve for Australian prospects is slightly different. Naylor struggled after he was promoted, but he did show signs of progress at Clearwater.
Mike Stutes, RHP: 42.2 IP — 1.48 ERA — 2.22 DICE
Stutes, another guy who started at Williamsport, came to Lakewood and went all guns a blazing. He struck out 11.30/9, the second highest rate on the team, while walking 3.84/9. As I said in the Williamsport review, his control/command is a slight issue, but guys with swing and miss stuff can sometimes get by with shaky control, and its something that he can certainly improve.
Jacob Diekman, LHP: 96.1 IP — 5.42 ERA — 4.06 DICE
I’ve been a big Diekman backer, and while I still think he’s a prospect, he had a disappointing season by most measures. He struck out only 4.96/9 and walked 4.40/9, obviously not good ratios by themselves, let alone together. He did limit his HR’s (0.37/9), and his DICE was much lower than his ERA, indicating he might have been a bit unlucky, but he didn’t have a good season, and this one came as a disappoint to me.
Julian Sampson, RHP: 135.0 IP — 4.33 ERA — 3.79 DICE
As high as I was on Diekman, I was ten times higher on Sampson. The reports on him this year were somewhat mixed, some indicating the raw stuff was there, but he lacked deception in his delivery or he struggled with his secondary pitches on a consistent basis. He didn’t miss many bats, only 4.60 K/9, and he walked 3.47/9, but I stressed before, prospects from cold weather states (Washington, in this case) sometimes take more time to get adjusted to pro ball. 2009 will be a big season from Sampson one way or another. If he puts it together, he’s an elite arm.
Notes: Mike Cisco threw 35 innings at Lakewood and didn’t allow a walk. I didn’t include him in the 5 above because hes basically a reliever prospect, and I devalue those guys in the overall scheme, though I do think its important to develop your own relievers. Moises Melendez posted a solid walk rate in 75 innings (1.92/9), Darren Byrd’s walk rate was even better at 1.03/9, Eryk McConnell’s rate was even better, if you can believe that, at 0.86/9. I suppose I have to mention Chance Chapman, who posted a 2.98 ERA in 139 IP, though of course he did it at age 24.
Phuture Phillies 
Some very exciting prospects at Lakewood. I think Taylor, D’Arnaud, and Galvis start for the big Phillies within the next 3 – 4 years and Brown may as well. An exciting group. Some very good arms as well. I agree on Sampson, give him another season to strut his stuff.
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You just mentioned tons of talent, much of it very young. Mattair and Galvis will repeat Lakewood with D’Arnaud and hopefully improve into a core that can move up together. Several of these pitchers can be scary good, especially Sampson but we’ll have to wait and see. I’m off of Diekman unfortunately as he regressed, along with D’Arby who no longer looks like a prospect. Dom Brown has all the tools to play in Philly in 2011 if he continues to fill out and get stronger and we’ve all talked plenty about Taylor who has an ETA of 2010 if he has a good year in Reading.
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I really think D’Arnaud is the real deal. Watching him play in person was like watching a man among boys…
Unrelated note, The Phillies are in the WS.
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i dont understand it when people say galvis is rollins’ replacement. he doesn’t seem to be able to hit a lick, so is he worth it just on defense?
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Once the Olympics started (and Donald and Marson left Reading), Lakewood became the first affiliate box score I’d check every day. In d’Arnaud, Brown, and Taylor, you’re looking at 3 of the top 6 prospects in the system. Add to that some interesting college guys in Rizzotti, Worley, Stutes, Chapman and Cisco, and some boom-or-bust guys in Sampson, Mattair, Galvis, Myers, and Warren, and it’s quite the intriguing mix.
Agreed completely with NEPP that d’Arnaud seems like the real deal. I miscalculated his SecA in yesterday’s thread — d’oh, math! — but while .250 isn’t great, it’s not a red flag for a 19-year old catcher in a Low A pitcher’s park. If the reports of his plus defense are accurate, then he’s certainly got the all around package to warrant some serious excitement going forward.
Jeff: you’re right in that Galvis hasn’t hit at all yet, but there’s an explanation for the love thrown his way. First, his defense is, by all accounts, Gold Glove caliber. Second, because he’s an 18-year old, 154 lb. kid playing in Low A, he’s physically overmatched at this point. Nonetheless, he managed to make consistent contact (only 11.7% K), but he lacked the power to really turn on any pitches (only 10.5% line drives); this explains his unlucky BABIP of .270 on the year. To come to the point: as his frame fills out, he should be able to translate his consistent contact into more solidly hit balls, making him a legitimate offensive prospect. He’ll never be Jimmy Rollins, but the hope is that he’ll be able to hit 7th in an NL lineup.
Finally, a quick word on Cisco and Chapman. While odds are that Cisco will wind up in the bullpen, there’s no reason not to start him in the rotation at Clearwater and leave him as a starter he shows he can’t handle it. His peripherals were phenomenal (0 BBs, 64.3% GB) — as reflected in his 1.35 DICE — and while he was old for the league, he was a college junior, so he’ll start next year at Clearwater at age 22. Maybe it was a fluky 57.1 IP sample, but there’s reason to be excited until he proves otherwise. As for Chapman… yes, I know he’s 24, and I can’t for the life of me figure out why the Phils left him at Lakewood for the entire year. But if they’re smart enough to move him to the bullpen — where he can focus on his fastball and slider — then he could be fast-tracked as a reliever. His solid peripherals (51.1% GB, 2.32 BB/9, 7.64 K/9) and good DICE (2.66) give me hope that he can be a MLB-caliber middle reliever.
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Galvis will likely fill out and add around 30 lbs…At that point we’ll see if he still has his range and speed. If he does (honestly he’ll likely get faster with his build), then he’ll have a good shot at being an asset to alot of teams. Great defensive SS that would hit in the 8-hole are still worth something. Its tough to see that when you have a SS who is as great and consistent as Jroll in the starting lineup every night. We’re spoiled by having a top SS on our team.
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You know…just spitballing here. In a few years we could always move Jimmy to 3B if he loses a step at SS. As he’s currently the best defensive SS in the NL this is a long ways off…but then so is Galvis from playing in the majors. While his bat might not be ideal for 3B, jimmy has the feel of a lifelong Phillie at this point.
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this is an excellent site and it has greatly increased my knowledge and interest in the phil’s farm. i am grateful for all the hard work that goes into it. that said, i find it very odd and disconcerting that nowhere on this site is there any acknowledgment that the phil’s just won the FREAKING PENNANT! this is the whole point of the farm… to produce the players to ultimately bring an pennant and a WS championship to the city. just sayin’.
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Cheese I quess DB likes pineapples and poi
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I was checking the Winter League games. Dom Brown, who started late, is hitting .500 (8-16). He has a couple a couple of doubles and a triple. Taylor is having a little trouble batting only .200 (but he had a game winning hit yesterday).
I’m very high on Taylor (of course) but I like Brown almost as much. I could see these two guys in the Philly corner OF spots in a few years. I’m jumping ahead a bit but I can dream about it now.
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“Galvis will likely fill out and add around 30 lbs”
I have no doubt he’ll get stronger, and put on a few more pounds, but he’s not a bean pole. He already looks a little like Fernando Vina. If he puts on 30 pounds, he’s gonna look more like a current day Luis Castillo. Could happen, but at least he’ll have a some good years in prime shape before aging to that.
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If Larry Bowa can have a .260 major league career ,Glavis can.
He looked like a bone with a glove. There are no stats for heart
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D’Arnaud, Mattair, Sampson. Those are the three guys I am really hoping can meet and exceed expectations. I got to see a couple lakewood games this season. D’Arnaud wasn’t up for any of them, Mattair was solid defensively and had a couple of XBH’s. I never saw Sampson pitch unfortunately. Galvis might be the only person on the planet who gets smaller the closer you get to him. Remember when bugs bunny was pitching to the guy swinging a tree? That’s what Galvis looks like holding a bat. Myers was a dissapointment when I saw him play as well. He’s still young and the kid has the work ethic to put a bad season behind him and turn it around
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Anyone believe Dominic Brown starts at AA next year?
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Why would you start Brown at AA next year?
He’s slightly ahead of age-appropriate, I think. His development is going very well. They’ve got OF prospects of some promise ahead of him. I don’t think you take the chance of short-circuiting his development and confidence by double-jumping him; let him play at Clearwater to start things, and if he’s raking, give him the mid-season bump.
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As far as D’Arnaud having plus defensive skills, I feel like he somewhat struggled at Lakewood. I don’t pretend to know all the nuances of catching, however in comparing the gameplay of Naughton to D’Arnaud, Naughton definitely seemed to hold an edge. Hopefully, this is just because of Naughton’s familiarity with the Lakewood pitchers, and the young D’Arnaud will further develop his raw talent more in spring training with the help of Compton. That being said, his bat was pretty impressive.
Also, I completely agree with Friar re: Chapman. I expect him to become a reliever next year, and think he’ll greatly improve any bullpen he’s a part of.
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The deal with Galvis is not that he’s at a gold glove level today. Its that he shows the ability to make plays that only gold glove level players can make. He doesn’t make them consistently yet but just having the ability to make that kind of play is terrific. He has that type of ability to make a play that you’ve never seen before and that’s exciting for everyone, even his teammates.
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Jeff and Murray —
Age is tremendously important in the low minors. Naughton is 2-1/2 years older than D’Arnaud and that has to factor heavily into projecting what their defensive skills will be by the time they should be ready for the majors in 3 years. D’Arnaud is very young for A ball. Galvis is even younger and is listed at only 154 pounds. I don’t think he should add 30 pounds, but 15 is certainly very reasonable. It is very encouraging that Galvis had relatively few Ks and hit better as the season progressed. He has also hung in there as a switch hitter, which can slow a young kid’s development with the bat. He is a very intriguing prospect. The downside is that we have been here before recently with Anderson Machado, who also played low-A at age 18 and had more speed than Galvis and also the super D, but didn’t develop enough with the bat.
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StillWatersRunDeep asked
Anyone believe Dominic Brown starts at AA next year?
If there is a new GM not named Amaro maybe, but i like the
idea of starting out in the warm weather of Clearwater for
90 days or so
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I’d be very surprised if Brown gets double jumped. But then again, if plate discipline is the most telling stat for a minor leaguer, then it could be possible for him to be challenged at Reading. I bet he finished 2009 in Reading, but a Clearwater start makes the most sense for him.
– Jeff
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Wheels what’s with the Amaro reference? Where minor leaguers end up has more to do with the player development staff then Amaro. Steve Noworyta and the minor league coordinators.
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What kind of velocity does chapman have and why are you sold on him being a reliver next season.
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This administration operates on fear and stupidity and Amaro
to me means more of the same.
Of all the friends here u should remember orders come on high
just my view buddy
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Why would I want to start Brown at AA next year? Because the FSL won’t be a challenge for him. And it’s not like the Phils have an abundance of outfield prospects waiting in line. It’s a weakness right now in the system. He could spend 1 1/2-2 years in AA before moving to AAA. More at-bats vs betting pitching.
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plus the biggest factor is, That if you are not a yes man they tune you out. Did you ever notice that writer hagen never will come out and critisize them until others do .They tried to pull wip press pass because of negative about the F.O. no freedom of speech in that orization. Jim leyland wouldn’t put up with it and wasn’t hired . Wade was under qualified to be a G.M. but he was giles eyes and ears when he had to step down. so he was made G.M. a yes man. Amaro is next in line. Conlin is the most hated by them, but they are helpless he has too much senority to be hurt by them.
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cheese Rocky Houston picked Wade over Amaro that has to tell you something.
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No reason to bump DBrown up to AA and maybe destroy his confidence. Let him get a look at High A in the warm weathe first and if he does great, maybe promote him to be with Mike Taylor at AA at some point in late July.
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remember ed wade used to hold the fireworks while giles lit them, they work in houston together as P.R. men
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well Rock spell giles backwards
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just a quick note on my earlier Galvis comment: I wasn’t trying to say he would add or needed to add 30 lbs specifically. I was stating that he is still very young and hasn’t yet filled out as most guys do between 18 and 22. He’ll add the weight that everyone’s concerned about and liekly keep his speed and athleticism.
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Dom Brown is doing well in the HWL. He would be leading the league with his .435 avg and 1.127 OPS if he had a few more ab’s. He threw out a runner at the plate the other night and has a couple of stolen bases. Would love to see a AA outfield of Taylor, Berry and Brown in April but I am sure Noworyta will get some 6 year free agent in the twilight of a mediocre career and a nonprospect like Milner who is over 3 years older than Brown for right at AA. Since Dom just turned 21 he will be the high A right fielder to start the season.
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Why no press on Zach Sterner 10-2 and invisible. Why didnt the Phils move him up??????? anyone!
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Sterner is a 22 yr old middle reliever in low A who vultured a bunch of wins from starters on pitch counts (I presume).
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