Today we’ll continue the review of the Phillies affiliates in 2008 with a stop in Williamsport. As with the GCL review, I want to hit on 5 key performances both on the offensive side and the pitching side and then maybe a few quick hits. Someone had mentioned in the GCL review a question about DICE and what it was. To get the full info, just read this. Its not accurate to assume that you can compare all ERA’s on one team and say that they are adjusted for defense because all the pitchers played in front of the same defense. DICE just eliminates this blip because its defense-independent. It makes it easier to compare players on different teams as well, which is really one of the biggest benefits of prospect evaluation and using a system like I’ve developed. So anyway, onto the review.
Travis D’Arnaud, C: .309/.371/.463
D’Arnaud had one of the best seasons of any Phillies prospect in 2008. The Phillies were somewhat conservative with him, starting him at Williamsport instead of Lakewood, despite his supplemental first round pedigree. He showed good power (.154 ISO) and an acceptable walk rate (9.1%), as well as the ability to hit for average. The average hitter in the New York Penn League put up a line of .252/.325/.365, which D’Arnaud essentially exceeded by about 41%. His Secondary Average (SecA from here on out) of .251 isn’t great, but for a 19 year old catching prospect in a pitcher’s league, its not a concern for me right now.
Steve Susdorf, OF: .292/.346/.466
Susdorf, after a solid career at Fresno State, elevated his profile with a great College World Series last spring, and then followed it up by hitting a grand slam in his pro debut. Susdorf’s line was about 34% better than the NYPL average, which you’d hope for out of a college senior, but is impressive nonetheless. Susdorf only walked in about 7% of his PA’s, but did post an ISO of .174, a solid number in the NYPL. Like D’Arnaud, his SecA was only .248, which is more of a concern because of Susdorf’s age and his place on the defensive spectrum.
Troy Hanzawa, SS: .299/.360/.394
Hanzawa, a defensive whiz and also a college senior, hit for a nice average, but the rest of his numbers really fail to stack up. He only posted a 6% BB rate compared to a 17% K rate. There seems to be some excitement forming about Hanzawa, and I don’t really know where its coming from, other than his defensive ability. His SecA was only .173 this season, thats a big red flag.
Cody Overbeck, 3B: .268/.300/.457
Overbeck, as I’ve mentioned previously, was a mixed bag in 2008. He doesn’t draw walks (3.7%), he strikes out a fair bit (21%), but he hits for power. His ISO of .189 was the highest on the team, and his 38.7 XBH% was also the highest on the team for batters with at least 200 AB’s. Because he doesn’t draw many walks, its reflected in his SecA, which was only .229
D’Arby Myers, OF: .267/.324/.361
D’Arby Myers has certainly generated lots of discussion here over the last 2 years. I jumped on the bandwagon after his debut, in what might prove to be one of my worst calls on record. Myers started at Lakewood, where he struggled mightily, and was shipped to Williamsport, where he continued to struggle. Myers’ .324 OB% and .361% SLG were right near the league average. His ISO of 0.94 doesn’t indicate much in the way of power, and his SecA of .183 doesn’t boost confidence. Myers might still be a prospect, but he goes in the “well, maybe some day he’ll turn into something” bin.
Notes: James Murphy, a college senior, was basically 17% above the league average when considering OB% and Slugging%, and his .270 SecA was 3rd highest on the team among guys with at least 100 PA’s. Jeremy Hamilton’s line was even more peculiar. He didn’t hit for average or power, but drew a lot of walks, leading to a .318 SecA, the highest on the team, before his demotion to the GCL. Darin McDonald, before calling it quits to play football, posted a .175/.175/.275 line in 41 PA’s with a SecA of .050. Ouch.
Michael Schwimer, RHP: 39.1 IP — 2.06 ERA — 1.31 DICE
Schwimer flat out dominated the NYPL, which is something you’d expect from a college senior, but maybe not to this degree. Schwimer struck out an eyepopping 13.8 per 9, while walking 3.45 per 9. The latter number is a bit high, but not a huge concern in a player’s pro debut. He didn’t allow a HR, which works in his favor. At 22, he was old for the league by quite a bit, but he didn’t disappoint in terms of his performance, and his DICE was actually better than his actual ERA, an impressive feat when you get into the low ERA range.
Justin De Fratus, RHP: 83.1 IP — 3.67 ERA — 2.35 DICE
I touched on De Fratus with my underrated/overrated guys, sticking with De Fratus as a guy who is somewhat underrated, despite me constantly raving about him. He struck out 8.01/9, he walked only 2.71/9, and he allowed only 1 HR in his 83 IP. He was unlucky in terms of his ERA, which is illustrated in a DICE that is 1.3 runs lower. He’ll make his full season debut in 2009, which should give us a good idea of what we have on our hands here.
Tyler Cloyd, RHP: 62.0 IP — 3.63 ERA — 3.71 DICE
Cloyd, who logged the second highest innings total behind De Fratus, posted a 7.98 K/9 ratio to go with a solid 2.61 BB/9 ratio. The one big red flag was the HR rate, 1.02/9, which is too high in a pitcher friendly league. Cloyd generated a few more groundballs than flyballs (41.5% to 39.1%), but he struggled with his control against lefties, walking 4.05/9, compared to 1.99/9 against RHB. Cloyd is an interesting story, dropping out of school and pitching in an independent league before entering pro ball. Right now, we need to see more, but what I’ve seen is promising.
Michael Stutes, RHP: 27.0 IP — 1.33 ERA — 3.00 DICE
Stutes, before tearing through Lakewood, tore through the NYPL. He struck out 10.3/9 while walking 3.67/9 and allowed 2 HR in his 27 innings. The high walk rate likely drove up his DICE, meaning he was somewhat fortunate, but the raw stuff was there. Like all college arms in the NYPL, you expect them to dominate, based on the composition of the league, so when someone does, you just nod your head and file that away in the back of your mind.
Freddy Ballestas, RHP: 59.2 IP — 6.18 ERA — 2.76 DICE
Now to me, this is the definition of an underrated prospect. Ballestas missed bats (9.73/9), his walk rate was nearly the same as Stutes’ at 3.65, and his HR rate was lower, at 0.46/9. Ballestas did walk a few too many, but he’s a year younger than Stutes and Schwimer, and he was making his US debut after pitching last year in the VSL. I’m not ready to call Ballestas one of our better prospects, so don’t overreact to this comment, I’m just pointing out a guy who’s surface ERA looks ugly, but who posted good peripheral numbers and might be worth watching.
Notes: Mike Cisco posted fantastic numbers, but pitched only 19.1 IP. The K rate was awesome (10.37/9) and the walk rate was solid (2.36/9). I want to see what he does next year at Lakewood or Clearwater. Eryk McConnell, another college senior, put up solid numbers as well, but his 12.86 K/9 was good for only 3rd on the team behind Schwimer and Brian Rosenberg. Rosenberg struggled with his control a bit, walking almost 4 batters per 9, but as I mentioned, generated the highest K percentage on the team. Miguel Matos, who I gave a pop to in the GCL review, pitched even better here, but in only 14 innings. Jordan Ellis also missed his share of bats (9.96/9) and kept the ball in the park.
The big takeaway from Williamsport, to me, is the number of interesting arms, and the number of guys who struck out more than 10 hitters per 9 IP;
Schwimer: 13.81 (39 IP)
Rosenberg: 12.93 (34 IP)
McConnell: 12.86 (14 IP)
Cisco: 10.37 (19 IP)
Stutes: 10.33 (27 IP)
Very impressive.
Phuture Phillies 
Nice write up. Clearly, the number and quality of potentially good pitchers on this list gets us all excited. Unfortunately, only D’Arnaud, a 2nd round pick, looks like he has major league starter potential for the position guys.
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The reason I talk about Hanzawa.Is looking purely at his numbers,he seem to hit well after a slow start. I really only can go by avg. don’t really get into the stats you have posted. I guess it a better way to judge performance. still want to know what secA is if anyone can tell me. thanks.
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secondary_Average
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Thanks PP . secA is very interesting. I must learn this new way to think What do you get out this knowledge (in your own words.
P.S Is .200 the Taguchi line wink
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I like Mike Cisco. The trouble is he probably already has had
the best instruction so little room to grow in that department
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Is this group pitching performance for real or a mirage? When I see a large group dominating this much, I wonder if the hitters this year just sucked. How did our pitching stack up against the league. I’d be happy to hear other staffs did poor or mediocre and ours stood out. Just asking, since I have never seen this much group dominance. Hopefully just great scouting of arms this year.
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The pitching success here reflects the solid haul of arms from the 2008 draft class. I’m a bit surprised at highlighting Ballestas over Rosenberg; I know the latter’s a bit older and had some control problems, but the scouting reports (and the K numbers) say his stuff is legit, and I think his profile screams major league set-up man. He and Schwimer should be fast-tracked next year; personally, I’d like to see them start at Clearwater.
Quick thoughts on a couple of other players…
I’m not ready to give up on Hamilton yet. The optimist in me says to chalk up his struggles as adjustment to pro ball, and the solid SecA backs that up. My guess is that he and Murphy split 1B at bats at Lakewood next year, and hopefully Hamilton busts out.
I had soured a bit on de Fratus after his struggles in July, but after reading the interview with him and seeing your analysis, I’m cautiously optimistic on him as a starter going forward.
Cloyd is very intriguing going forward given how well he pitched after so much time off. Fingers crossed that he makes another leap forward next year as the Phillies (presumably) get him indoctrinated into a training program, year-round conditioning, etc.
And finally, d’Arnaud… I’m very excited by this guy. He even went ahead and put up a .297/.357/.469 line, with a .375 SecA (!), in 69 PAs at Lakewood to show that the Williamsport performance wasn’t a fluke. As things stand now, I’ve got him as our #4 prospect.
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Oh, and I know you like to refrain from commenting at this point, James, but a quick question. You mention the minimal HRs against de Fratus as a point in his favor, and point to Cloyd’s 8 surrendered as a red flag.
My question to you is: is there really any way for pitchers to control this beyond their GB% and FB%?
(For this example, obviously Cloyd had a higher FB%, but that doesn’t completely account for the discrepancy.)
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I will attempt to answer my own question. W’port had a team WHIP of 1.38–outstanding–but that was middle of the pack and 5 teams had WHIPs of 1.20-1.28. That to me suggests that there were few good hitters in the league this year, so we may want to temper our excitement. Also they K’d 610 as a team, closer to bottom of the league than the top. 8 teams had more Ks and one had 752. Again, indicates an easy league to pitch in. Maybe other teams had some GCL grads, like Myers (not ready), getting a lot of ABs against college pitchers.
With some of these guys pitching in Lakewood next year, which is a pitcher’s park, we may not get accurate reads on all of them until they hit FSL. If there are few dangersous hitters or if the park is big, you can afford to go after hitters aggressively. Not true in leagues with great hitters or in smaller parks.
Just my amateurish speculation, prompted by outlandish group K rates. Correct me if I’m wrong.
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Question: If we ar on a site such as MiLB, with no Saber-stats to speak of, I assume WHIP is a more accurate projection than ERA.
Correct?
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http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statpages/glossary/
De Fratus: 1.1% in 2008, 2.0% in 2007
Probably some luck involved there. But his GB% has always been about 10% higher than his FB% (even moreso in 2007) which leads me to believe he has some skill in terms of keeping the ball down.
Cloyd: 9.9% in 2008. Right in line with averages.
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PP That percentage of FB-hr reflect fly ball hit off of gb pitchers also doesnt it? If so it is slanted.
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I am trying to take this stat secA into how we judge prospect. If I understand walks play a big part in judgeing a player. So if a guy bates 100 times and get 30 singles. he is egual to a guy who in 100 at bats gets 15 singles,walks 15 times,and if he steal 5 bases his secAis higher with a lower average
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nowheels please now I am lost?
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There is an idea that a ground ball pitcher is better than a
flyball pitcher in Philly stadium. Actually it makes very little difference to Howard and Utley and probably others.
1/fly ball hit off a FB pitcher are less likely to be mistakes than
off a GB
2/to turn around and used the per centage of flyballs that are Hr. and use that as a negative stat against FB pitchers is a false stat.
Every stat has a hole.
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Hanzawa-love…he’s a brilliant defender. Guys often take a bit of time to adjust to wood bats, and Hanzawa had a .785 OPS in July/Aug/Sept as compared to .648 in June. A good defensive shortstop who can post a mid-700s OPS or higher is worth a good deal, whether in the big leagues or via trade. We’ll see what he does in Lakewood, a very tough place to hit.
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congradulations to the entire Phils organization 2008 National League Champions
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Nowheels, I’m sorry, but I’m not following your logic here.
“2/to turn around and used the per centage of flyballs that are Hr. and use that as a negative stat against FB pitchers is a false stat.
Every stat has a hole.”
Why? If 11% of fly balls leave the yard, then doesn’t it follow that Pitcher A, who gives up 7 fly balls per every 10 batted balls, will give up more home runs than Pitcher B, who gives up 3 flyballs per every 10 batted balls? Unless you can find a stat that says that ground ball pitchers surrender a higher HR% per fly balls than fly ball pitchers, then it really is as simple as the example I laid out above.
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The Philadelphia Phillies are in the MOTHER FING WORLD SERIES. Now let’s keep this farm system pumpin em out so we can go back year after yea!!!!!!!!
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Rocky: with regard to SecA, that’s correct. SecA basically punishes singles hitters who have no secondary skills, and rewards those with great plate discipline and/or speed on the basepaths.
As an example, here’s a fascinating study in contrasts: Cristian Guzman v. Jack Cust.
Some will argue that Guzman is a more valuable player offensively because he hits .316, while Cust is a hulking slugger who hit .231 and struck out 191 times this year. But due to Cust’s ISO (.245) and his 111 walks, the SecA shows who is actually more valuable.
Cristian Guzman (2008): .166 SecA
Jack Cust (2008): .476 SecA
This isn’t to say that SecA completely trumps BA, but it is certainly a more well-rounded statistic. I wasn’t at all familiar with it until James mentioned it here, but I can see now that it’s a very useful tool.
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My biggest problem with SecA is that like most SaberMetric stats, it is weighted to give an advantage to high OBP players.
For example, Jack Cust in your example had a SecA of .476 which would make him more “valuable” than Ryan Howard (.425), Chase Utley (.369), Pat Burrell (.448), and J. Rollins (.344).
Who has the highest SecA in all baseball for 2008??
Adam Dunn (Jack Cust is 3rd)
Don’t know about you, but I wouldn’t trade any of those 4 for Adam Dunn or Jack Cust!!!
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SecA seems to give too much credit to SB at a low steal efficiency. A 67 – 75% steal success rate is often viewed as the break-even point, but this credits anything over 50%. So, a player moved into scoring position is worth an out and a lost base-runner? Maybe SecA should have SB – 2*CS in the formula.
Other than that, it seems (BA + SecA) may be a decent comparative stat. Not sure it is better than OPS.
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Unfortunately, if you look at the stats objectively (and without a Philly slanted view), Cust, Dunn, and Howard are all very similar players. Howard has more RBI’s, but that is more of a function of the players around him. Other than that, same HR’s, same K’s, same lack of defense, etc. SecA does a good job of pointing this out.
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Just so I understand it correctly, it seems to me that SecA sorta seems like OPS, but it factors in baserunning. Is that the jist of it?
Personally, I’m a big fan of OPS as a judge of offensive contribution. SecA seems to take away from guys who may not be as fast – thus D’Arnaud’s lower average (assuming he’s not fast because he’s a catcher). It also seems to not favor singles hitters, even speedy ones. I just checked Ichiro and his SecA usually hovers in the low .200s. Yet a guy like Cust has a ridiculous average even though he doesn’t have any speed, strikes out like a motherf**ker and has a low BA. Okay, I’m confused.
Is it just me or do all of these Sabermetric stats always seem to favor players on Oakland?
– JEff
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IS Tim Binkoski even being considered on next year’s Lakewood roster or for that matter Clearwater? Prospect or not the guy hits!
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