You’ve given your opinion on biggest surprise and biggest disappointment, now I’ll go ahead and give my take. I gave this a good deal of thought, and I tried to distinguish between guys I wasn’t that high on (Carpenter and Golson), guys I expected to struggle (Galvis, Mattair) and focus more on guys that I had real high hopes for. I’ll give my biggest disappointment/surprise as well as two runners’ up for each, and then a little bonus at the end. So, lets get to it.
Biggest surprise of 2008; Michael Taylor, OF
This is really a no brainer, isn’t it? I went back, and there really wasn’t a whole lot of talk about Taylor at all last season. I mentioned that he was the only guy taken in rounds 3-7 with upside in my draft review, but that was hardly worth noting. He wasn’t ranked in my Top 30, and only one reader placed him in their respective top 30’s. There was brief discussion on Taylor when we talked depth charts. But really, that was it. And man did he ever produce. The caveats and red flags are there, which I’ll go into more detail on when I roll out my Top 30 for 2009, but he had a monster season. He proved he could hit A ball pitching, which leads me to believe that with a strong showing in Hawaii, he’ll start next year at AA. Taylor isn’t the first guy to ditch the “Stanford Swing” and produce good results, but its almost impossible to know which guys will succeed and which won’t, and Taylor didn’t have the dominant prep career that indicated he was likely to just turn on the jets post college.
Runner up; JA Happ, LHP
I ranked Happ 13th in the system heading into 2008, largely due to his injury history and lack of quality command/control. He responded by posting much better numbers this season at AAA, cutting down the walks and continuing to miss bats. He followed it up with a solid September showing with the big league club in a pennant chase, and showed that he’s a viable rotation guy going forward. He might not be a true middle of the rotation guy, and hes probably at the end of the line in terms of projecting his stuff forward, but if he further refines his command and can tighten his slider/curve/slurve, there’s no reason he can’t be a #4 SP for the next 10 years. I wasn’t expecting a whole lot out of him this year, but he stepped up in a big way. Had you told me he’d have done what he did this year, I’d have ranked him in the Top 6 or 7 in our system, not 13th.
Second runner up; Travis D’Arnaud, C
Score one for Keith Law, who picked D’Arnaud as one of his 5 best Phillies prospects, and raved about his potential and upside. D’Arnaud had a fine season with the bat, making it to Lakewood and not missing a beat. He was considered to be stronger defensively than with the bat, so this has to be considered a big development and boost to his overall prospect status. He’ll likely begin 2009 in Lakewood and then move up 1 level at a time, though he could force an early promotion to Clearwater if he continues to rake at the prodigious pace he set in 2008.
Biggest disappointment of 2008; Heitor Correa, RHP
I had Correa, a young and projectable RHP, ranked #14 in my Top 30 heading into 2008, and he repaid that faith by getting suspended for a serious violation of team rules. He didn’t pitch at all, and his status with the organization is uncertain heading forward. Correa was a guy I expected to pitch real well in 2008 with a look at full season ball and possibly the Carlos Carrasco type developmental path. Instead, he’s off the prospect radar and possibly out of the organization. Obviously this is a massive disappointment.
Runner up; Brad Harman, 2B
I had Harman ranked 10th in my Top 30, and saw 2008 as a big time breakout possiblility. Despite making his major league debut, 2008 can only be considered a big disappointment and a step back. Coming off a strong second half in 2007, I thought Brad might step up with a big year, necessitating a move to 3B to get his bat in the lineup in Philly at some point in 2009, but now that looks like a pipe dream. He posted an overall line of .210/.279/.366 at Reading, with a 138:44 strikeout to BB ratio. He did hit 17 HR, but the lack of contact and the inability to consistently draw walks is a problem. He’s been bypassed on the depth chart by Jason Donald, who is instead the one to get reps at 3B in the AFL this fall, leaving Harman on the fringe. He is now on the 40 man roster, so time is ticking. He’ll likely repeat AA next season, and he needs to show a greater ability to make contact and to also take walks. He still doesn’t fit in at 2B or SS in the big league picture, and 3B doesn’t look likely at this point. A utility role is still possible, but he needs to show marked improvement in 2009. Considering where I had him ranked, his 2008 was a big disappointment.
Second runner up; Jason Jaramillo, C
Jaramillo, repeating AAA, did very little to help his prospect status, getting off to a miserable start and really failing to establish himself, even as he got his batting average into the neighborhood of respectability. He lacks secondary skills, drawing only a decent amount of walks and not showing all that much power, which basically leaves him in the ML backup department. He was bypassed for a call up in favor of Lou Marson, and with Ruiz and Coste in the fold, as well as D’Arnaud behind him, its kind of tough to see where he fits in. He turns 26 in a few weeks, and at this point, he’s likely either trade bait or in line for a 3rd straight season at AAA, treading close to “organizational player” instead of legit prospect. I had him ranked 17th heading into 2008, and its tough to see that ranking improving, and he’ll likely slip near the bottom of the top 30, if not out of the Top 30 all together.
Feel free to discuss this here. And as promised, here’s your bonus. Try not to spread it around, hopefully it won’t get taken down
and
Phuture Phillies 
And here I thought it was going to be a montage of Golson’s k’s…
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I have no problem with your choices. I threw Correa out with the bath water but he was a huge disappointment because he didn’t play. Taylor was a very pleasant surprise. He went 1-4 with a HR in yesterday’s HL game.
Sweet Lou got a start yesterday with the big club and made the best of it. 2 – 4 with a HR. Nice way to end that part of the season. I hope Happ makes the post-season roster. I think they’ll need a long reliever with Myers back in doldrums. Having that lefty come in after Myers would be tough on an opponent.
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at 1:12, I’m the big blue blur to the left of where the homer landed
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this is about the surprise rather than the actual post topic:
the best part, by far, is marson high fiving the air in response to the silent treatment
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Agree with the surprises. As I said in the other disappointment topic, I don’t think anyone disappointed dramatically. That is, no one with very high expectations played poorly through the entire season and even those expected to do better had good stretches and can be considered to have advanced their development, e.g., Savery, Caprpenter, Carrasco, Jaramillo.
Not that aware of Correa, so had no expectations. Harman, I never saw as a consistent or dominant offensive force, so I am not completely surprised he struggled in high minors, even though I was hoping for more. Agree he seems a utility prospect at best right now. There is somehting missing in his offensive game, not sure what. He does a little of everything at times, but nver puts it all together consistently.
Jaramillo, again, not a huge surprise. Bad start but performed very well if you isolate the last 4+ months.
The surprises outweight the disappointments. That’s a good thing.
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I was at the game on Sunday. Great atmosphere! The crowd really got into Marson’s homer.
He did strike out twice I believe and Golson looked bad at the plate. He also had some bad breaks on balls in center.
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Drat, I’m at work and I can’t see the boni (plural for the word bonus). What is it? I’ll have to fire up the computer as soon as I get home.
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I really wanna know what Heitor Correa did that was so bad they suspended him all year. Drugs? Punched a coach?
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interesting at bat for Lou. 3 straight curves. took all 3. then they throw him hte fastball that he deposits. gives us something to dream about in the off season.
taylor has to be the #1 surprise. he came out of no where. D’Arnaud was a top draft pick, so not a huge surprise for me.
but i would say that my #1 surprise was a development of what appeared to be a significant increase in depth of prospects throughout the system. i know that might not be what you are trying to get, but that was truly my biggest surprise. i can’t remember a time with such legitimate talent in the system.
#1 disappointment is andrew carpenter.
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The suspension of Correa, for what I have heard he did, may have been excessive. But it was against team rules, and he did suffer the consequences.
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I don’t know if this is right time or place for this but Buster Olney wrote an article:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=olney_buster&id=3589629
Which was meant to show how poor the Yankee farm system has been from 1997-2005. In the analysis I think the Phillies came out with some interesting data. During the above time frame the Phils had only 13 position players(tied for 26th) from their system reach the majors, but they had a combined 17,970 AB’s( ranking 7th overall). They had 19 pitchers(a ranking of 17th) but they totaled 5,152 innings pitched which was good for a 5th place in MLB.
So our system may not be producing quantity
, but there is definitely quality there.
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I watched the game on tv yesterday and saw it happen. Sweet Lou’s homer was on such an easy swing it was a thing of beauty. He looks like he fits in and the fake high 5s were awesome. On the other hand, Golson continues to look like a 5th ourfielder at best. The Phils kept Tagucci over him on the playoff roster and he stinks. I bet they keep Lou around to help out in the bullpen though. The Phils have some real questions to answer for next year. By the way, Freddy Garcia vs Gavin Floyd??????
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My biggest diappointment was the record at Reading, which had an abysmal record despite having two Olmpians (Marson & Donald), one almost-Olmypian (Golson) and a left handed pitcher who started a few September games in the majors for the A’s (Outman). With that type of talent, they should not have been a tail end club.
My biggest surprise?? The way that the Phillies used the later rounds of the draft to bust slot and make some “toug signs”
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Even in Marson’s 2 K’s he looked good at the plate. He worked the count and fouled off a few balls with two strikes.
Let the Lounacy begin.
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Golson kind of reminds me of Ricky Jordan (at bat). I agree with Murray—Golson has specific major league tools (good speed & a good arm) but will never be a regular (doesn;t look like he can hit major league breaking/off speed pitches)
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Trading Jaramillo for a senior veteran catcher with a couple seasons left is the way to go.,
Jaramillo IS 26 but 6-7 years younger than such a vet catcher…making it a long-term switch-hitting catcher for a guy just short of a retirement in 2-3 years.
IMO, that’s the best use of Jaramillo.
This allows the vet catcher to start the season alongside Ruiz or Coste if Marson needs some AAA time in order to join the big club mid-season. If Marson IS ready to start the seasson in Philly, then it’d be him and the vet with bRuiz at Lehigh Valley.
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Golson came up small in that last game. Misplayed a fly ball, missed a cut off, overmatched at the plate, struck out 3 times. Looks to like he’s going to need some more seasoning.
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Art, why would you trade a young catcher for and old catcher? Let Jarimillo compete for the job next year. He’s a switch hitting catcher, who appears to be coming into his own. My guess, the Chris Coste experiment ends.
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We are producing a bunch of Jason michael, and jeff geary types, Perfect kind of players this cheap ownership likes to have. Sign cheap draft choices and hope you get lucky like with howard, but for every howard you get a lot of guys like moss,and mach. When was the last starting outfielder developed by this team. not counting converted burrell. What does anyone think they would get for jarimillo.A Catcher who can’t hit are a dime a dozen.
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No doubt Michael Taylor is the surprize of the season. He’s also off to a good start in Hawaii.
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I didn’t get a chance to weigh in on the biggest disappointment thread, but Correa was a name I was planning to mention. We can always hope that he’ll be back next year, but I’m not holding my breath. Unfortunate too, since losing him is the equivalent of losing a Top-3 Round draft pick (at least in my opinion).
And as LengthyWinningStreak says, nice start in Hawaii for this season’s biggest surprise. The home run is great, but I’m even more excited by the walks (3) and strikeouts (0). I’m holding out hope that Taylor is the rare case whose plate discipline improves as he climbs the ladder; as pitchers start to fear him, he’ll get pitched around more often, leading to more walks and less strikeouts.
Oh, and James: thanks for the Marson videos. Good stuff, and the silent treatment is priceless.
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Rocky, I like that analyzes. I think the answer to your question is Michael Bourn and to some extent Marlon Byrd. Not exactly world beaters but they have been starters. I look at some of our drafted college pitchers an see a lot of Geoff Geary. We seem to be specializing in middle relievers.
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Check Sandberg and Ripken’s first 75 major league at bats. Golson had not batted for almost a month.
Not that he will be great but one game is no basis for judgement.
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Sandberg seemed to be just trying to hit the ball without
swing. he had that little confidence after the phils.
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id say the org did a fine job developing victorino…development at the major league level counts as well
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jayson weth as well, last time i checked he wasnt batting 3rd with huge production in any of his other stops
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Didn’t think of him when making my choice, but Correa is an excellent choice for most disappointing. Can’t agree with Jaramillo as second runnerup. He started slowly, but after first 6 – 7 weeks performed pretty much as expected. I never thought he was anything great.
Don’t agree with trading him for a veteran catcher. We already have Ruiz and Coste for that. Ruiz is an excellent defensive catcher.
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To say Lou Marson has had a meteoric rise in 08 from spring training until the last game of the ML season is an understatement. In spring training he appeared in just one game with the big team and did not even get an at bat while Jaramillo was in 13 games with 17 spring training at bats playing behind Coste and Ruiz. During the 08 season Marson was in the Future Game at Yankee Stadium, the Olympics in Beijing and an EL All Star leading the League in OBP and second with a .314 batting average. He ended the season by going 2 for 4 with a home run and the TV Player of the Game in the final game of the regular season for the NL East division winners. On the other hand no player has fallen as far as Jaramillo starting the season as the 3rd catcher in the system only a phone call from the Show to a forgotten figure lost in a plethora of ML potential minor league catching prospects in the organization.
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Ez victorino is a dodger who wasn’t going to make there team he was not develop by the phillies, werth is a platoon player who has trouble with right handed pitching. so if I give you those two you give me floyd, loshe,padilla, all double digit winners joe saunders, I take those four over what we have now. We misread floyd, loshe and saunders we didn’t feel was worth the money,
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Mattair. He was according to scouting reports a kid who should hit. Why do you think he hasn’t live up to that billing yet. Can it be that he didn’t play a high level of baseball in high school and was misread or this is a natural process.
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Loved the air fives…
Lounacy is spreading across the Delaware Valley. News at 11.
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New catchers who are in their mid 20s represent 6-7 more years for the team that has him. Jaramjillo can hit a little as a switcher and is a good defensive catcher aty the age of 26 after two AAA seasons should provide some team with a serviceable catcher who could compete for a starting job after his first ML season.
The problem with Ruiz is a .225 ba with a low oba even though he is a good defender.
Getting a vet catcher is for the purpose of enhancing the offense way beyond Ruiz incompetence while still having an experienced guy to lead toward the playoffs in ’09. A guy who hits .260–.270 with 10-15 dingers should be of great benefit rather than Ruiz with his .230 and specialty in grounding into rally-killing double plays. We lose nothing on defense and gain on offense all for the price of Jaramillo who isn’t going to make OUR team at all.
And, if Marson can be our #2 catcher and do an on the job training, he’d be “sophisticated” in ML baseball to carry on as an equivalent #1A catcher for the season…or at least arrive mid-season.
My idea produces a vet catcher who can hit more than Zero Ruiz for a guy we’d never have catching instead of Marson.
Enter: Marson!
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There’s a good chance that Jarimillo will hit somewhere around 260 to 270 with 15 home runs and his defense is excellent. What’s the point of trading Jarmillo for a older model. I don’t understand your thought processes, Art. The way I look at it Jarimillo and Marson replace Ruiz and Coste within a year as is.
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Jaramillo has never done that at Triple A. What makes you think that he could do that at the major league level? Not trying to come out you or anything, but just wondering if you could back up that statement at all.
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Jaramillo posted a mid-700 OPS versus righties this year, even given the horrible start. That’s very useful for a catcher. Probably won’t hit 15 HRs, but you never know.
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Clearly he has hit in that range at every level, so there’s no reason to believe he won’t. Of course being a switch hitter helps. As for the HR totals, I factor the park into this and the fact that he’s reaching his physical maturity.
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I am not a Ruiz fan and Coste is done for now(minor league contract)
Marson is clearly the best and Jaramillo gives you everything
Ruiz does and maybe more
Two rookie catchers would take guts not a quality the Phils
have shown, but at least open up the possibliy especially
if Dubee stays he likes to control the himself . Not a quality I like.
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Having a catcher who can work the count and walk,would turn over the lineup and make the bottom better so that we could move victorino up to use his speed. The catch is not to lose the defense. To hear lidge talk he can throw his slider with a man on third and not worry about ruiz letting it get buy him. He said he is really one of the best at blocking the ball. As much as I don’t like ruiz it’s hard to let that defense go. If we can get a better hitter at third and right field then we can keep ruiz and his limited offense.
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Jaramillo has never even hit double digit home runs in the minors, so lets not just pencil him in for 15 in the majors. Let’s not forget that Carlos Ruiz hit 16 and 17 home runs in two of his final three years in the minors and had slugging percentages of more than 100 points better than Jaramillo’s at the same levels. To replace Ruiz with Jaramillo is not a good idea. Ruiz is clearly better offensively, is likely better defensively, and has the major league experience.
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Love the site, have been reading alls season. 1st post.
The Phillies lucked into Victorino, he did not make the team, they offered him back and the Dodgers said NO. Werth, however they should get some credit for. I would not play him against “ace” righthanders, but he should get 500 AB’s a year.
Biggest surpise to me is Marson – flat out player. Appears to be a winner in the Varitek..Posada type mold.
Biggest disappointment to me Golson. Yeah he improved some, enough to make him a 5th outfielder. He brings more to the table than Taguichi…but it remains to be seen how much.
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Ruiz and Jaramillo sharing the catching next year may be a wise way to start the season. I think Coste may have a shot to make the team as a utility player, allowing Charley to pinch hit for the catchers if needed. I would rather see Coste and his late inning base hot stroke off the bench, as a 5th OF, 3B, 1B, C backup, than TJ Bohn, who we had this year.
I think that may be a good way to start, Then, if Marson is killing AAA and Jaramillo is playing OK (.260+, a couple dingers, decent # of walks) you have a chance of getting real value for Jason, maybe packaging hime with a prospect or another player for someone to fill a hole really weel. Of course, that depends on other contenders having a desparate need for catching.
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I’ve been saying all along that Ruiz brings enough to the table defensively to more than make up for his ineptitude in the batters box. When you can get 100 HR’s just out of your SS, 2B and 1B, you don’t need much power from your catcher to have an effective offensive infield. It just makes anything you get from C and 3B a happy little bonus.
I vote they give Marson and Jaramillo a chance to compete for the second catcher’s spot and hope that Jason shows enough to make him valuable as trade bait, maybe for a left-handed reliever. Then make Lou the backup catcher and slowly break him in until he’s handling all of our pitchers besides Lidge and Hamels.
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Great sight, keep up the good work.
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First hit of the playoffs for the phils by Mr. Ruiz, himself.
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Part of me really wants to see Marson in the phillies lineup next year. That would limit the black hole to pedro feliz himself, although I think we can be optomistic about carrying that on all by himself.
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